Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack, James Marson and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:
The Russian rate of advance is slower than every major campaign over the past century. Russia, after nearly four years of war—by which time the Soviet Union in World War II had seized Berlin—is far from taking Donetsk. Western military officials and front-line Ukrainian officers say Russia’s military isn’t on the verge of a breakthrough. Kyiv’s forces are still inflicting heavy casualties, meaning small Russian gains come at heavy cost. The Russians are making tiny advances with no ability to exploit. In just the last week at Kupiansk, the Ukrainians pushed the Russians back twice the distance it took the Russians to advance in more than four months. The Russians still have not taken all of Pokrovsk and its been more than 500 days since (many claimed) the city was doomed and its fall could be a catastrophe for Ukraine. "They have failed and we do not intend to let them succeed."
t is important to understand that Ukraine is not about to collapse and is not doomed. That is the narrative that you are going to hear more and more from Washington and Putin’s friends in other places. It is a deliberately destructive narrative, composed to try and convince Ukraine’s partners that Ukraine should be forced to take any old terrible deal that Putin and Trump cook up. That is why it needs to be fought.
Seth Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the Russian rate of advance is slower than virtually every major campaign over the past century, including the Battle of the Somme in World War I.
Russia, after nearly four years of war—by which time the Soviet Union in World War II had fended off a German invasion and seized Berlin—is far from taking the eastern Donetsk province, a target since its first, covert invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
“Occasionally, they manage to raise their flags and claim that a position has been taken, but we then conduct clearing operations, remove the symbols, and the position remains under our control,” said Hlushko, of the Separate Presidential Brigade. He said his men are usually able to detect and eliminate the small infantry groups that Russia uses in assaults, but they sometimes sneak through because of the sheer weight of numbers.
A Ukrainian army lieutenant colonel in the 56th Brigade said the Russians had recently rotated in new forces in an attempt to force a breakthrough in the Chasiv Yar area, which the battalion he commands has defended for two years.
Despite intensified Russian use of drone and missile strikes and probing infantry assaults, “they have failed to achieve that,” said the officer, “and we do not intend to let them succeed.”
Senior Western military officials and front-line Ukrainian officers say that Russia’s military isn’t on the verge of a breakthrough. Though Kyiv’s military position has been gradually eroding, its forces are still inflicting heavy casualties, meaning small Russian gains come at heavy cost.
“What we see at the battlefield is of course still advances, but marginal advances,” Radmila Shekerinska, deputy secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, told reporters in Washington on Wednesday.
“I just don’t see evidence right now on the battlefield of a strategic change in the war.”Ukraine Goes From Collapsing to Liberating Kupyansk
It was just over a week ago that the reporting about the Ukrainian military situation once again took a very dark turn. The New York Times for one published a story which was rich with undertones of Ukrainian failure.
Relying to a large degree on a group of Finnish analysts (who were prophesying doom for Pokrovsk 16 months ago) the story made it seem that the landwar was taking an ominous turn for Ukraine. Here is maybe the key section from the piece, notice how they get the word “collapse” in even by saying its not about to happen “now”? Nice flex.
But Russia’s pace is quickening, and incremental moves have started to add up. Moscow’s forces captured 505 square kilometers, or nearly 200 square miles, of territory in November, up from 267 square kilometers, or about 100 square miles, in October, according to the battlefield map maintained by DeepState, a Ukrainian group with ties to the military.
“The future looks really, really grim for Ukraine,” said Mr. Kastehelmi, the analyst. “I don’t see a clear path out.”
For now, Ukraine appears to have enough resources to keep the front line from collapsing. But it is bending. Mr. Putin has suggested that Ukraine, facing manpower shortages and uncertainty about Western aid, should concede to his demands before the war gets even worse.
And what were signs of Russian success—well one of them mentioned earlier in the article was that the Russians “are pressing closer to the northeastern city of Kupiansk.”
Yes, the Russians had made slow, bloody advances towards Kupyansk over the preceding weeks/months. Here was the situation when the article was written.
And here was the situation in August 1—130 days or so earlier.
The Russian war machine had advanced around 5 kilometers (3 miles) towards Kupyansk—so a pace of just over 100 feet (not yards, not metres) a day.
Then in just the last week, the Ukrainians executed a military operation that pushed the Russians back about twice the distance as it had taken the Russians to advance in more than four months. Here is today’s map.
Its interesting that this story has not yet appeared in the New York Times.
Now does this success herald a transformation in the land war? No, nothing of the sort can be read into it. It does, however, reinforce the notion that the Ukrainians are still operationally superior to the Russians in that they can react to a situation and achieve more in a short period than the Russians ever could. This is now twice in four months that they have in relatively short order reacted to a Russian advance, cut it up and forced it back. They did the same in August to the north of Pokrovsk. Here is the weekend update from that time.
Weekend Update #148: Breakthrough? What Breakthrough? Collapse? What Collapse?
Read full story The situation then eerily similar to what we have just seen. Russian successes were widely hailed as an impending doom for Ukraine, the Ukrainians reacted successfully, and everyone went quiet.
Actually, what the last few weeks have shown is that the land war is not changing its fundamental character for now. As long as the Russians are willing to sacrifice 1000 soldiers or so a day, they can make tiny advances as the Ukrainians are (wisely) not sacrificing their own soldiers in the front lines so much. However, the Russians are making these tiny advances with no ability to exploit. They lack the ability to build up the logistical bases and vehicle concentrations near the front to move forward if they make a “breakthrough”. Its been the basic situation for almost two years—here is a piece I wrote about it in the Spring of 2024.
Breakthroughs Without Exploitations
Read full story And therefore, when the press obsesses about small differences in monthly advances, they present a distorted picture. Actually, bad weather which would make made earlier combined arms warfare more difficult, helps the Russians. Thus they could move forward a little more in November, as bad weather and higher winds (do not discount the importance of wind) limited Ukrainian UAV effectiveness. However the amounts of land changing hand are still statistically miniscule. If the Russians took 500 sq kms of Ukraine in November, that represents .008 of one percent of Ukraine.
Its amazing when we are talking about such little amounts of territory, that we are repeating this collapse/silence dialectic. Much of it seems to be the papers relying on analysts like Blackbird who have risen to completely unwarranted prominence because they are always available for a doomladen analysis of Ukraine. They were amongst the loudest voices in the Summer of 2024 dooming about the situation around Pokrovsk.
It would be far better to rely on sources such as the Institute for the Study of War (who have been solid on Kupyansk throughout and have this recent update on the situation there). Here is their headline of facts about the present situation—balanced and lacking in (false) drama.
Ukrainian forces continue to advance within and near Kupyansk, and more details have emerged about the counteroffensive effort. Geolocated footage published on December 12 indicates that Ukrainian forces made further advances in central Kupyansk while conducting clearing operations and also advanced southeast of Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk).[1] Ukrainian military observer Yuriy Butusov reported that Ukrainian forces completely seized Yuvileynyi Microraion in southwestern Kupyansk and assessed that this lost ground will likely prevent Russian forces from sustaining any remaining positions in southern Kupyansk.[2] Butusov reported that Ukrainian forces are still clearing Kupyansk, and geolocated footage published on December 12 and 13 indicates that Russian infiltration groups remain in northern and western Kupyansk.[3] The chief of staff of a Ukrainian drone battalion reported that Russian forces are still attempting to penetrate into Kupyansk, primarily on foot.[4] Russian milbloggers acknowledged Ukrainian advances into Yuvileynyi Microraion and northwest of Kupyansk and stated that heavy fighting continues near Myrove and Radkivka (both northwest to north of Kupyansk).[5] One milblogger acknowledged Russia’s loss of Radkivka and two defensive positions south and east of Radkivka.[6] Many Russian milbloggers continued to cast doubt on or outright reject many of the Ukrainian reports of advances despite available evidence supporting the Ukrainian reporting.[7]
And btw, the Russians still have not taken all of Pokrovsk and its been more than 500 days since the analytical community started saying the city was doomed and its fall could be a catastrophe for Ukraine.
Things are not great for Ukraine in the land war by any means. However, the Ukrainian army is not about to collapse and the fighting shows where the Ukrainians maintain some important advantages. For now, the Ukrainians should use the land war to extract maximum losses from the Russians whilst saving their own forces. They will not win the war by attacking generally (localized counteroffensives as at Kupyansk are the way to go) but instead by attacking the Russians at depth in the ranged war, threatening the Russian economy and logistics, which will eventually degrade the effectiveness of the Russian army.
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