A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Dec 3, 2025

'Piles of Dead Russians' Around Pokrovsk Reveal Ukraine Still Holds

Pokrovsk remains in Ukrainian hands, according to hard evidence from objective observers that contradicts repeated Kremlin claims to the contrary. That Putin and his lackeys feel compelled to reiterate on an almost daily basis does suggest that the word 'premature' may be a polite way of saying nyet. Or just 'false.'

Ukraine's defense line in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad remains concentrated along the railway line that bisects the town. Many units have withdrawn to prepared positions north of there - and reports consistently state that even if the city does eventually fall, it will not lead to further breakthroughs from exhausted and depleted Russian units which have been unable to complete taking the city despite having been in parts of it for over three months now. JL
 
Yuri Zoria and David Axe report in Euromaidan Press:


On December 2, (observers) found no evidence confirming Russian capture of Pokrovsk. The town's fall (if it comes to pass) will not enable breakthroughs by Moscow. Russian units operating around Pokrovsk severely degraded after suffering major losses, have failed to encircle Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and have struggled to repel counterattacks. Ukraine has established effective fortifications west, north, and northeast of Pokrovsk. In past attempts Russian troops failed to penetrate these. The difficulties encountered then are expected to repeat now. If it took the Russians a year and tens of thousands of casualties to (come close to) capturing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, it may take them even longer—and cost even more—to even begin contesting Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. 

Ukrainian brigades are retreating north to the fields and villages between Pokrovsk and the twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, 25 miles to the north.

The twin cities, combined population 400,000, are the next major objectives for the Russian Center Group of Forces, whose 150,000 troops outnumber the local Ukrainian corps five to one. But there are good reasons to believe the march won’t be an easy one. If it took the Russians a year and tens of thousands of casualties to capture Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, it may take them even longer—and cost even more—to even begin contesting Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. 

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on 2 December that Ukraine's city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast had been seized. However, ISW found no evidence confirming the full Russian capture of the town and assessed that its fall would not enable major breakthroughs for Moscow.

This comes as Russia has been focused on capturing the rest of Donetsk Oblast for months, carrying out the most intense ground attacks in the area of Pokrovsk. 

The think tank wrote:

"ISW has not observed evidence to confirm the complete Russian seizure of Pokrovsk, but Russia’s seizure of the town in the near future is unlikely to produce rapid Russian advances."

Putin described Pokrovsk as a “good base” for achieving the goals he set at the start of the invasion. He said it offers Russian forces the ability to advance in “any direction” the General Staff considers promising.

Putin "exaggerated Russia’s claimed seizure of Pokrovsk," ISW says

The think tank dismissed Putin's claim as an overstatement, stressing that Russian forces are unlikely to achieve large-scale advances from the area.

ISW noted that Ukrainian troops have established effective field fortifications to the west, north, and northeast of Pokrovsk. These defenses will complicate any Russian movement beyond the town. While Russian forces have recently exploited foggy and rainy conditions that hampered Ukrainian drone use, ISW emphasized that such weather will not last.

Russian units will also face natural obstacles, such as terrain and water features, that limit rapid maneuvering. Past attempts in the nearby Dobropillia direction showed the same challenges, where Russian troops failed to widen a deep but narrow penetration or secure consistent supplies. The operational difficulties encountered then are expected to repeat now.

Map: ISW.

ISW assessed that the Russian units operating around Pokrovsk, including the 51st Combined Arms Army—previously the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps—are severely degraded after suffering major losses in recent months. These elements have also failed to close the northern side of a potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket and have struggled to repel counterattacks from Dobropillia.

"ISW previously assessed that the Russian seizure of Pokrovsk would achieve an operationally significant effect of depriving Ukraine of its use of Pokrovsk as a logistics hub, but that Russia had already achieved this objective by July 2025," ISW wrote.

The broader strategic impact of controlling Pokrovsk now depends on how Ukraine withdraws, the strength of its follow-on defenses, and whether Russia has enough combat-ready forces to exploit any collapse in the area.

 

Fortress Belt remains unbroken

The Kremlin’s portrayal of Pokrovsk as a major turning point stands in contrast to the facts on the ground. ISW concluded that unless Russian troops overcome several entrenched obstacles, including force readiness, terrain limits, and strong Ukrainian fortifications, their position will remain stalled despite localized gains.

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