Ukraine Attacks Russian Tanker In Mediterranean, 2000 Km Away

A remotely launched Ukrainian drone attacked and significantly damaged  a Russian oil tanker. 

The attack reveals that no Russian military or economic asset is safe at distances far greater than could have been imagined even a few months ago, suggesting that Kyiv's capacity to inflict damage is almost unrestrained. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

On December 19, the Ukrainians attacked the tanker Qendil in the Mediterranean and rendered the vessel inoperable. It shows that Ukraine plans to keep up its campaign against Russian tankers. The first attacks were not warnings, they were the start of the campaign. The attacks occurred in the Mediterranean 2000 kilometres (1200 miles), from Ukrainian ports. The distance shows the Ukrainians have the ability to deploy drones a long way using remote launching vessels.  It also means that defending them is almost impossible for the Russians (its unlikely the Russians can operate World War II-like convoys) and it gives the Ukrainians the ability not to terrify some of their European partners.

On December 19, the Ukrainians announced that they had attacked the tanker Qendil in the Mediterranean and rendered the vessel inoperable. They even released footage of the attack which supports the claim. This Deutsche Welle report has the footage right near the start of this report.

 

Assuming it is legitimate, a civilian tanker hit like that would indeed have a very high chance of serious damage.

The attack was important for a number reasons. First it shows that Ukraine plans to keep up its campaign against the tankers regardless of international pressure. The first attacks were not warnings, they were the start of the campaign. Also, the attacks occurred in the Mediterranean about 2000 kilometres (more than 1200 miles), from Ukrainian ports. The distance is important as the Ukrainians clearly have the ability to deploy these drones a long way from home using remote launching vessels or something similar. Here is a BBC map of the course of the Qendil. We can assume that where it turned around was where the attack took place—about halfway between Greece and Libya.

Of course this is not all. This attacl shows that the Ukrainians are willing to make these attacks in vital waterways like the Mediterranean. They are clearly tracking these vessels and getting them while they are empty, most likely on their way back to Russia to try and fill up. It might be that the Qendil was actually heading to the Baltic to fill up just outside of St Petersburg—it certainly did not seem to be heading to the Black Sea if you look at its course.

Having the range and capability to attack these tankers in more distant waters is a huge advantage for Ukraine. It means that defending them is almost impossible for the Russians (its unlikely the Russians can operate World War II-like convoys) and it gives the Ukrainians the ability not to terrify some of their European partners. Even staunchly pro-Ukraine Estonia is a little worried about attacks on tankers in the the Baltic Sea, for instance.

When you add these attacks to the growing effectiveness of European sanctions on world wide Russian oil sales (the European sanctions seem to be causing more worry than the weak ones that the Trump administration announced) Ukraine has a new weapon beyond the attacks on Russian refineries to significantly hit Russian oil revenues. Russia’s Achilles heel remains its economy, which is far from being that of a great power and which has blown through its reserves and is living close to hand to mouth. The war at sea matters for this precise reason. Russia makes its money shipping oil (except for the pipeline to China). If Russia loses the ability to do that through a combined air-sea attack by Ukraine, Russia will struggle to continue the war.