Decimus reports in Daily Kos:
Ukraine believe they have now stabilized the Pokrovsk front and intend to turn it into another “meat grinder” fortress against Russian forces as has been the case at Chasiv Yar, six miles west of Bakhmut, that has withstood all efforts by the Russians to capture it since the fall of Bakhmut more than two years ago. With Ukraine clearing out the Dobropilia axis, throwing barely trained mobiki at Ukrainian defenses is not working, so the Russians have replaced their less experienced personnel with special forces units. (But) Russia's spetznaz have been severely impacted with heavy losses, the near-total destruction of at least one brigade, and concerns about the ability to reconstitute these forces. "They crawl over their own corpses, and this is not figuratively, but literally so."
Remember the alarm back in August 2025 when Russia surprised and made a bee line towards Dobropilya in the hopes of creating a northern pincer against Pokrovsk as well as drive a wedge between Pokrovsk and the rest of the Ukrainian “Fortress Belt” in Donetsk oblast?.
Well, Ukrainian forces officially announced(via Lt. General Oleh Apostol, commander of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces) that the job of clearing out and stabilizing the Dobropilyia direction … that once-upon-a-time source of much angst and doomsaying, has been completed. The erstwhile Russian salient at Dobropilya is no more:
Operation on Dobropillia axis finished, Pokrovsk still holding, Ukrainian commander says
after throwing a legion of barely-trained Mobiki at the Ukrainian defenses on the Pokrovsky line, the Russian command has decided that is not working(fast enough?). They have to try something new because they’re :
'Crawling over their own dead': Ukrainian military on Russian tactics in Pokrovsk
"They started dragging these sabotage and reconnaissance groups into the city in the summer, then the infantry started crawling in. That is, their losses are terrible, but they never cared about them and do not care now. They literally crawl over their own corpses, and this is not figuratively, but literally so, and it does not bother them much,"
So they are now sending in their “Special Forces” or “Spetznaz” . Somehow, unlike in the Ukrainian example, they are not sending their Special Forces in by “Black Hawk”, “Hind” or “Alligator” helicopters. Those Spetznaz guys are probably gonna have to trudge their way through the Ukrainian bezdorizhzhia"(mud season) into the Pokrovsky “meat grinder” at the end... hoping that the late Fall dense fog will help shield them from 24/7 Ukrainian drone surveillance. Because awaiting them are experienced and battle-hardened Ukrainian units like the 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade "Rubizh":
Russia deploys special forces to Pokrovsk front, replacing less experienced troops
The situation in the Pokrovsk direction is extremely tense. Russian forces have replaced their less experienced personnel with special forces units equipped with modern gear and weapons. They are attempting to break through into the inter-positional space, using dense fog and a significant amount of heavy equipment to create chaos in the defense lines
Volodymyr Cherniak, an officer of the Rubizh Brigade, stated this on Espreso TV.
If previously the Russian troops used absolute marginals, mobilized from among those who served time in Russian prisons, for one-time assault actions, now we have started to notice a large number of Russian special forces units that have normal equipment and weapons,"
The Russian Special Forces of today are not what they used to be or were in the run up to the full Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russian special forces, collectively known as Spetsnaz, are a broad category for elite units across different branches of the military and intelligence agencies, including the military's Special Operations Command (SSO), the GRU's Spetsnaz brigades, the FSB’s Alpha and Vympel groups, and the National Guards OMON units(who infamously sided with Prigozhin’s rebellion in Rostov). Their roles range from ground and naval reconnaissance and sabotage to counter-terrorism, direct action, and political warfare.
Indications are that Russia's special forces have been severely impacted, with some reports indicating heavy losses, the near-total destruction of at least one brigade, and concerns about the long-term ability to reconstitute these forces. It’s core has been decimated and hollowed out in the course of the war, especially at the very beginning, according to U.S. Congressional reports:
Pentagon leaks: Russian special forces decimated by Ukraine war
Russia’s war on Ukraine has taken a major toll on its special forces after their heavy deployment to the front lines with skilled commandos suffering a high number of casualties, leaked US military documents show.
The over reliance by Russian commanders on the “spetsnaz” special operation units led to speculation by US officials that it will take Moscow several years to rebuild.
I posted a couple of diaries earlier on about Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief, General Syrskyi, seemingly urging his young theater commanders to end the Dobropilya salient as soon as possible.
In so doing the Armed Forces of Ukraine believe they have now stabilized the Pokrovsky front and intend to set up to turn it into another stalwart “meat grinder” fortress against Russian forces as has been the case at Toretsk and more importantly at Chasiv Yar. It is worth recalling that Chasiv Yar(“Quiet Ravine” hardly what it is today), a suburb just six miles west of Bakhmut, has withstood all efforts by the Russians to capture it ever since the fall of Bakhmut on May 21, 2023 … more than two years ago. As General Apostol emphasized:
... fighting in urban conditions would significantly complicate the Russian offensive, as was the case in Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.
"He[the Russians] will be forced to engage in combat in Pokrovsk, which is analogous to Toretsk... Chasiv Yar is still holding out, so it will be difficult for them," the commander added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3587723
The other big news is that the Ukrainians have also defeated Russian efforts to break through from the Dobropiliya direction towards Barvinkove, thus thwarting the Russian aim of cutting off the Donetsk region from next door Kharkiv oblast.
We haven’t heard much about Barvinkove but it sits at a very important strategic location.
Barvinkove, 76 miles as the crow flies northeast from Dobropiliya, is located in Kharkiv Oblast, near the administrative border with Donetsk Oblast and historically served as a strategic point between the two regions. It is part of Izyum Raion of Kharkiv Oblast. Memories of Mark Sumner’s many diaries on the Russian salient towards Izyum just before Syrskyi’s Kharkiv “Thunder Run” counteroffensive in 2022 put paid to that salient.
While Barvinkove itself is not a political or administrative boundary, its geographical position along the road and rail routes between Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts makes it a key location during military operations, particularly in the context of Russian advances toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, two of the Ukrainian “Fortress Belt” cities. The town's proximity to the front lines and its role as a staging post for Ukrainian counteroffensives underscore its strategic significance in the war.
So in a week in which the news from Ukraine has been rather difficult, what with the Krasnov’-Witkoff shenanigans and the Energoatom bribery scandal costing President Zelenskyy his key aide, Andriy Yermak, ADAPTIVE INDOMITABLE UKRAINE bucks the trend and launches operations to stabilize the situation around Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian forces continue to hold their positions despite ongoing enemy attacks whilst setting up to make it clear to the Russians that Ukrainian units will maintain control over key areas in Pokrovsk and that Pokvrosk will not be a cake walk for the Russians … expectation of heavy and intense urban combat to significantly hinder Russian advances, similar to the still-ongoing stalwart Ukrainian defense of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.
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