A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 26, 2025

Kremlin Motorcycling Mil-Blogger Taken Out By Ukrainian Drone

A popular Kremlin 'correspondent' who was traveling a little too close to the front in pursuit of a story, ended up becoming the story himself after a Ukrainian drone saw his motorcycle and attacked it. 

Russian forces have retrieved the destroyed motorbike and the reporter/milblogger's personal effects, but his body has not yet been identified. JL

Taras Safronov reports in Miitarnyi:

Russian propagandist Andrey Filatov, a military correspondent who worked for the pro-Kremlin news agency, Russia Today, was being hunted by a Ukrainian FPV drone and has disappeared in the Donetsk region. The motorcycle on which Filatov was traveling alone was attacked by an FPV drone near Pokrovsk. The Russians later found the propagandist’s motorcycle and personal belongings. Filatov was traveling to the area of responsibility of Ukraine's 414th Unmanned Strike Aviation Brigade (aka, the Birds of Magyar).

Ukraine Is Now An Indispensable Security Ally For the US and Europe

The harsh reality of the current global security situation is that in its fight against Russia, Ukraine has provided a shield for Europe for over a decade, since Putin grabbed Crimea and attempted to take even more Ukrainian territory. 

Ukraine's military and defense technology industry are now the only reliable, battle-tested protection Europe has - and it has brought advantages even to a US administration enamored of Russia but wary of the threat posed by China. For these reasons, Ukraine has become an indispensable ally. JL

Oleksiy Goncharenko reports in The Atlantic Council
:

Ukraine is uniquely positioned to help Europe meet the security challenges posed by an expansionist Russia as it has already been defending Europe’s eastern frontier for more than a decade. The past eleven years of Russian aggression have transformed Ukraine into one of Europe’s leading military powers. Today, the Ukrainian army features around one million battle-hardened men and women, dwarfing the armed forces of Europe. (And) the Ukrainian defense industry has emerged as a global innovator in defense tech, ranging from attack drones to cyber security. Ukraine knows what it means to mobilize society in response to an existential threat, and understands the nature of modern war.

Russia Increasingly Places Blame For War Failures On Corrupt Lower Officials

The Kremlin does not want to admit that its plans and leadership may be the reason why its military has performed so poorly in Ukraine, even allowing Ukrainian drones to attack targets in Moscow and Ukrainian troops occupy parts of Russia's border regions. 

So increasingly, Russian generals and civilian leaders are finding themselves accused of corruption - a central fact of Russian life - but which has become the convenient excuse through which lower level leaders can be blamed for failures. JL

Paul Sonne and Milana Mazaeva report in the New York Times:

Government officials in three of the five Russian regions bordering Ukraine have been arrested and accused in recent months of embezzling funds Moscow had earmarked for border fortifications, cases brought after Ukrainian cross-border attacks. Russian authorities are increasingly pursuing corruption cases against regional and military officials to put the elite on guard and quell public anger about battlefield failures. Moscow cannot accuse officials of wartime failures, because that would force leaders “to acknowledge the campaign has not gone according to plan. Anti-corruption cases allow Moscow to appease the public without admitting a failure. “The government has declined to charge treason or betrayal, but corruption is routine so this allows the public to draw that conclusion."

AI Referrals To Websites Are Up 357% In Last Year

That's a lot, but referrals to news and media website's are up 770% with YouTube being the Number One beneficiary.

The increase has still not caused AI to surpass Google search - especially since Google is using AI itself - but it reveals a growing familiarity and usage by consumers. JL

Sarah Perez reports in Tech Crunch:

AI platforms in June generated over 1.13 billion referrals to the top 1,000 websites globally, a figure that’s up 357% since June 2024. One particular category of interest these days is news and media. June’s AI referrals to news and media websites were up 770%. The Wall Street Journal recently reported AI overviews were killing traffic to news sites. Plus, a Pew Research Center study this week found users clicking AI links 8% of the time on . When there was no AI summary, users clicked 15% of the time. The number 1 site for AI referrals is YouTube. 

As Russia's Summer Offensive Stalls, It Pulls Last Old Tanks Out of Storage

The math is inexorable: Russia has lost almost all its usable tanks in Ukraine. It has about 300 rusty T-72s left in storage and is hauling them out at a rate of 20 per month to lead its increasingly de-mechanized attacks in Ukraine. But the problem is that the T-72s optics are so antiquated that these museum pieces are essentially fighting blind. Which means there is little left to recover once they meet their inevitable end versus Ukrainian drones and artillery. 

So it may have a year's worth of old Russian tanks for Ukrainian drone crews to use for target practice before there is almost literally nothing left for the Kremlin to send into battle. Which is part of the explanation for the failure of its summer offensive and the urgency with which the Kremlin is forcing attacks now, before its forces become even less threatening. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

As recently as a year ago, there were several hundred rusty T-72Bs in various states of repair at storage yards. The Russians are fetching them at a rate of 20 a month. The growing proportion of the 46-ton, three-person T-72Bs in the Russian inventory is the latest sign that Russian regiments are “de-mechanizing:”  evolving into infantry formations that ride into battle on motorcycles or other unarmored vehicles. Or walk. There are few Russian armored vehicles to exploit advances. (And) the T-72B’s biggest problem is its antiquated optics, which renders the crew blind under battlefield conditions. Increasingly de-mechanized, Russian forces can’t advance fast or at low risk to its exposed infantry.

Jul 25, 2025

"They Plant A Flag, Record A Video, Get Eliminated:" Russian Special Ops Pokrovsk

As the last week in July has started, Russia's summer offensive has made no significant advances, let alone breakthroughs as Ukrainian forces are holding on all fronts.

In response to questions about Russian sabotage or recon teams temporarily entering Pokrovsk, it appears they have made 5 or 6 forays, all with the same result: "They plant a flag, take a video - and are then eliminated by Ukrainian forces. JL

Hromadske reports:

Russian forces are not making significant advances on the front lines. There are no major Russian breakthroughs, though they continue to attempt them. Understanding they face strong resistance, Russians are focusing more on military-information operations. "Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have entered Pokrovsk 5–7 times. They attempt to record videos, plant a flag, film something… and are eliminated by our defenders. There is Russian pressure everywhere—Pokrovsk, Kharkiv, and Kupyansk axes. Our guys are holding their ground."

Ukraine Investing Millions In Drones That Take Down Russian Shaheds

Ukraine is investing tens of millions in interceptor drones capable of taking down Russian Shaheds. This is significant because until recently, the interceptors were small and used primarily at the front to destroy Russian FPV and reconnaisance drones. 

The interceptors have now been upscaled as part of the war's constant evolutionary drone development competition and are capable of taking down the much larger and faster Shaheds which threaten Ukrainian armor and defensive positions as well as civilian targets. JL

Kelsey Baker reports in Business Insider:

Ukraine's Defense Procurement Agency has let contracts worth over $72 million for tens of thousands of interceptor drones, weapons which are now being mass produced. Defensive interceptor drones function similarly to interceptor missiles, though drones are drastically cheaper and more easily produced. Interceptor drones have become an inexpensive option for defeating front-line loitering munitions and higher-end uncrewed reconnaissance assets, but the drones are increasingly being seen as an option for countering Shaheds

Russian Assaults On Toretsk Decrease As Pokrovsk Stalemate Requires More Troops

Reports from Toretsk reinforce those from Sumy and some other sectors, suggesting that the Russians are taking as many operationally effective units as they can to continue their now year long and still unsuccessful attempt to take Pokrovsk. 

The Russians are now trying to outflank Pokrovsk, having repeatedly failed to take it, but even these efforts have stalled. JL

Espreso Global reports:

Russian forces are trying to amass enough personnel and resources to sustain their attacks. Small groups of three or four try to reach Ukrainian positions. To overcome Ukrainian fortifications, particularly anti-tank ditches, they are resorting to using ladders. “In general, the average daily number of assaults in our operational zone has decreased. This could be due to the enemy focusing more of its efforts on the Pokrovsk direction.” 

Captured Russians From Vovchansk Front: "We All Knew It Was One Way Ticket"

Despite the hundreds of thousands of casualties and the no longer secret stories about conditions for Russian army soldiers at the front, thousands keep volunteering, mostly for financial gain or to avoid prison, all hoping they will beat the odds and survive. 

This story, like most others, suggests that not only are those odds extremely long, but that the Russians have as much or more to fear from their officers as they do from the Ukrainians. The question is what this growing cadre of surviving, if damaged and traumatized veterans will mean for Russia's socio-political future. JL

Matthew Luxmoore reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Simdyankin was among the hundreds of thousands of Russians lured into the military  drawn by propaganda, lucrative pay and, for some, a chance to avoid prison time. They find themselves dispatched hastily to the front, where Russia’s army fights with brutal Soviet-style tactics that pay for small gains with a colossal loss in lives. Sent to Vovchansk after two weeks training, every one of the 100 or so troops in Simdyankin’s unit was either severely wounded or dead. Despite shrapnel injuries to his leg and thigh, lost weight, after going days without food, he got less than a week to recover. “Our commanders didn’t care whether or not we survived. They’ll keep throwing us forward until there’s no one f—ing left. Same story, different day. We all knew it was a one way ticket." 

AI and Cloud Push Google/Alphabet 2Q Earnings Beyond Wall Street Forecast

Reports of Google's demise at the hands of AI bots appears to have been exaggerated. Again. Especially since AI and Google Cloud led Google to surpass Wall Street's expectations for the second quarter in a row. 

The reality is that Google Search remains in a strong position and has worked hard and fast to adapt AI as a tool, reinforcing its dominance. This continues to support the emergent narrative that AI is tending to make the Big Tech rich even richer rather than threatening them in the way that many previous tech evolutionary developments scuppered some of their predecessors. Google remains a major force to be reckoned with in the AI era and that does not appear to be about to change. JL  

Hannah Parker reports in Quartz:

Google parent Alphabet  posted earnings per share of $2.31 on $96.4 billion revenue, surpassing Wall Street’s projections for the second straight quarter. Alphabet’s AI and cloud computing investments proved to be major revenue drivers this quarter. The tech company cited “double-digit growth” from Google Search, YouTube ads, Google subscriptions, platforms, and devices, and Google Cloud. Google Services delivered $82.5 billion in revenue, up 12% year-over-year, while Google Cloud brought in $13.6 billion in revenue, a 32% increase. “AI is positively impacting every part of the business, driving strong momentum. Search delivered double-digit revenue growth."

Ukraine Retakes 2nd Sumy Objective As Russian Offensive Completely Stalls

Ukrainian forces have now pushed the Russians out of a second objective in Sumy, retaking a fortified village and effectively signaling the end of Russia's aborted Sumy offensive. 

The ominous spring headlines in credulous western media have receded as Ukraine's resistance - combined with the Russian military's consistent inability to get out of its own way - have contributed to yet another disappointing outcome for the Kremlin, still desperate to convince the Trump administration and the rest of the world, that it remains a capable fighting force. With only another four or five weeks of summer weather left, Russia's hopes now seem pinned on its frustrated ambitions in the Pokrovsk sector, where breakthroughs also appear unlikely. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

With Russian reserves stationed too far from the front to reinforce, Ukraine executed a pincer maneuver that pushed Russians back from a second Sumy settlement, Kindrativka, as the Russian Sumy offensive has reached a complete stall. Following air, drone and HIMARS strikes, Ukrainian assault teams penetrated the village, clearing it of Russian holdouts. Within hours, Ukrainian troops secured it. The fields surrounding Andriivka and Kindrativka are littered with Russian casualties and burning motorcycles. Their fruitless assaults drained Russian manpower and achieved no real gains as the Ukrainian campaign targeting rear-area troop concentrations, command posts, and logistical hubs forced Russian commanders to position reserves further from the front, causing more manpower shortages.

Jul 24, 2025

Why After Millions and 10 Years, Russia's Microwave Weapon Ends In Museum

The Kremlin spent millions over ten years, supposedly to develop an advanced, directed energy weapon em-ploying microwaves to take down drones and precision-guided munitions. But the mobile weapon has ended up in a museum rather than on the front lines in Ukraine. 

Investigators believe the reason for that is that the entire program was fake, intended not to invent a new weapon, but to money launder embezzled funds for senior Russian military officers and related civilians. Nice work if you can get it. JL

Defense Express reports:

Russia' Furor mobile directed microwave radiation system, of Russian design, has been showcased for the first time. However, not as a ready-to-go unit in a combat environment but as an exhibit in an armor museum in Kubinka, near Moscow. It was designed to disable unmanned aerial vehicles and precision-guided munitions. It is attributed to have the capability of providing defense in all directions in a range exceeding 10 km (a little over 6 mi). (But) his project was probably meant to help Russian military authorities soak up and embezzle the state budget, with a secondary purpose of advertising "innovative developments" from domestic industry.

Ukraine Ground Drones Have Eliminated Over 100 Russians At Pokrovsk, Toretsk

Ukraine's increasingly lethal ground drones have been credited with eliminating over 100 Russian soldiers on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk fronts, mostly by taking explosives to Russian defensive positions.

The UGVs are also being used for a growing number of logistical tasks like delivering ammunition, rescuing the wounded and retrieving downed aerial drones. Their use is expected to increase exponentially in the next few months. JL 

Ukrinform reports:

On the Toretsk and Pokrovsk fronts, fighters from the HUR's (Ukrainian intelligence) unmanned systems unit used ground drones to eliminate up to 100 enemy troops. These hard-to-detect 'couriers' carried out a series of explosive deliveries directly to Russian positions. Officers recently showcased an experimental ground drone equipped with a grenade launcher — a combat platform designed to strike enemy targets hiding in cover. The system is currently being adapted for combat conditions. Ground drones are also used for evacuating damaged equipment and delivering ammunition, FPV drones, fuel, and food supplies to frontline positions — all without putting personnel at risk.

Putin's Terror Blitz Has United Ukraine, Exposed Russia's Battle Failures

In what appears to be yet another unintended consequence of Putin's war with Ukraine, his terror bombing of civilian targets is uniting the population in anger (much as happened in Britain during the Nazi's WWII bombing campaign).

In addition, the terror campaign is drawing attention to the failure of Russian forces on the battlefield, where there year long attempt to take Pokrovsk is again mired in stalemate, their summer offensive is considered a failure and 2025 is turning out to be the bloodiest year of the war so far for Russia. As a result, the bombing is considered more of an admission of frustration and rage than a demonstration of power projection for the Kremlin. JL

Jillian Melchior comments in the Wall Street Journal
:

Vladimir Putin wants this blitz to demoralize Ukrainians, reassure Russians, and persuade the West that Kyiv is losing. (But) Ukrainian civilians are enraged by the attacks. Many donate to support the military, and the raids boost voluntary enlistment. “We are really becoming more united.” (And) a counter-intuitive interpretation of Russia’s drone blitz: it's “an indicator of a lack of success on the battlefield” for Russia. The Kremlin is enlisting Shahed drones and missiles, as opposed to planes and bombs, because it has been unable to establish air superiority. None of the territory Russia has seized this year is strategically or even operationally significant. Ukrainian defenses have held around key fortified districts and fortress cities in the east.

China To Sell Excess Computing Power Due To AI Data Center Glut

In what also serve as a warning to overly ambitious US plans for data center expansion, China is forcing local governments, energy and tech companies to curtail the building of any more centers unless they meet certain criteria and can guarantee demand. 

At the same time, the Chinese government is creating a service to sell unused power generated by the excess capacity in hopes of recouping some of the investment in these underutilized centers. Similar exuberance from real estate and power businesses in the US could also become an issue if hype about AI-generated demand results in wasted capacity. JL

Reuters reports
:

China is taking steps to to sell computing power and curb the unwieldy growth of data centres after thousands of local government-backed centres have caused a capacity glut and threatened their viability. Besides being an embarrassment for Beijing, unused computing power and financially shaky data centres could hinder China's ambitions in the past 18 development of AI capabilities. Over 100 planned data center cancellations occurred over months, due to growing concerns among local governments about returns on their investments. Utilisation rates are low, at 20%-30%.

Ukraine's 900% Drone Rise Made Bloodiest Summer of War, Pokrovsk Attack Fail

Ukraine's ability to increase its drone production 900% in the past year has led to the bloodiest year of the war for Russia, while being largely responsible for derailing its summer offensive, especially in the Pokrovsk sector. 

Among the crucial tactics for Ukraine has been the relentless targeting of supply lines leading to Pokrovsk, which has created shortages of ammunition and other supplies which have contributed to Russian forces inability, once again, to take the city they have been attempting to capture for over a year. JL
RFU reports:

Ukraine increased its drone production by 900% within just one year - now 6,600 a day - which has resulted in the bloodiest summer and year of the war for the Russians with almost 100,000 soldiers killed since January. Ukraine's new drone formation under Robert "Magyar" Provdi was especially crucial in halting Russia’s major push towards Pokrovsk. Ukrainian drones dismantled Russian assault groups, targeted supply lines - turning roads into killing zones and leaving Russian forces immobile, isolated, and unable to advance. Russian supply lines remain heavily dependent on a limited number of paved roads. The narrow choice of routes increased Ukrainian drone efficiency, often approaching a 100% strike rate against Russian supply columns.

Jul 23, 2025

Ukrainian Forces Hunt Survivors of Russian Unit That Infiltrated A Pokrovsk Street

Ukrainian forces are hunting the survivors of a Russian unit that infiltrated a street in Pokrovsk following confused defensive communications. 

A Ukrainian search and destroy operation has killed some of the infiltrators and the rest are being hunted down. JL

The Kyiv Independent reports
:

A Russian army unit reportedly managed to infiltrate Pokrovsk city limits along one street from the direction of Zvirove  after exploiting weakened Ukrainian infantry positions and inaccurate situational reporting. "Some of them have been killed, others are still being hunted. The search and destruction of these groups is still ongoing." DeepState warned that reports of such infiltration attempts should be approached with caution and confirmed data.

Ukrainian Troop Training Focuses On "Lethality" and Making Every Shot Count

Ukraine is employing a number of innovative means to combat Russia's advantages in troop numbers and some supplies, like infantry ammunition. 

Among them is improving the accuracy and lethality of Ukrainian shooting so that every bullet counts both to offset the disparity in numbers and to take advantage of the Russians' poor training. By improving shooting, Ukrainian soldiers can make more of an impact on the battlefield, even if they field fewer soldiers. JL

Sinead Baker reports in Business Insider:

Training for Ukrainian soldiers includes trying to make them as "lethal as possible" while also preserving ammunition. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a grinding fight that has consumed mountains of ammunition. "The Ukrainians don't have the luxury of a huge amount of ammunition. We spend quite a lot of time on the range coaching the marksmanship of the guys we're training to make sure that they do make every shot count when they get to the front." The UK and its NATO allies benefit from training Ukrainians too, getting direct feedback about how to fight Russia for their soldiers. Trainers are "learning a lot from the Ukrainians" 

Russia's Repeated Failed River Crossings Have Derailed Summer Offensive

As Russia's summer offensive is widely derided as disappointing, if not completely failed compared to its published objectives, one of the major contributors to that insufficient result is a consistent failure to conduct river crossings. 

While among the most challenging of military maneuvers, Russia's inability to mount any sort of success with this tactic has caused a broader strategic failure. JL 

Vikram Mittal reports in Forbes:

Russian forces ability to cross rivers has not improved. This has become a critical vulnerability, stalling their summer offensive, like recent attempts to cross the Dnipro and Oskil Rivers. The inability to transport armor limits assaults, preventing breakthroughs. Russian units lack training to carry out such an operation. High casualty rates also force Russia to rely on replacements with minimal training or experience, making coordinated operations such as river crossings difficult. The challenges of river crossings will increase for Russia as Ukraine’s growing fleet of drones are critical in identifying concentrations of Russian troops preparing for river crossings, directing artillery against them. Additionally, new drones are equipped with sensors that can see through smoke intended to conceal the crossings and Ukraine is also deploying unmanned surface vessels to patrol riverways.

Ukraine's Forces Are Working To Keep Their Edge Over Russia In Drone Effectiveness

In a constant battle to dominant evolutionary technological survival, Ukraine's drone brigades and manufacturers innovate around the clock to keep their advantage. Some drones are on their sixth iteration, with new, more sophisticated AI and laser weapons. 

The effort is paying off, as Ukraine's drones continue to thwart the more numerous Russians. JL

Marcus Walker and Ievgeniia Sivorka report in the Wall Street Journal:

Drones are now so dominant they force everything else—infantry, armor, artillery, logistics and trench design—to adapt. In Kostyantynivka, Russian infantry must cross miles of open farmland on foot or motorbikes. Most are picked off by FPVs before they near Ukrainian lines. Ukrainian drone manufacturers offer new sophisticated solutions, including FPV-borne lasers that cut fiber-optic cables. A drone with a tiny AI chipboard, once a pilot has selected a moving target, can attack autonomously from 700 yards away, even if jamming blocks the signal. 3-D printers make drone-dropped mines. Improved drones come out every few months. "Previously, when you saw 15 Russian vehicles, it was scary. Now it’s fun.”  

Why Putin Keeps Making the Same Terrible Mistakes In Ukraine

Putin's world view is harsh and brutal, which is why his approach to his war against Ukraine follows that same logic. But an objective analysis of his assumptions about Ukraine, its people and its military shows that he has been wrong more often than not - every one of his initial beliefs in February 2022 was proven wrong within 24 hours - and continue to lead him to make mistakes with consequences. 

In his latest abrupt, public rejection of Donald Trump's ceasefire and peace suggestions, Putin has insulted a world leader who has made no secret of his admiration for Putin's style and substance. This has forced Trump, reluctantly, to save face by increasing weapons supplies to Ukraine at a time when the Russian military's summer offensive is being called 'anemic' and its gains 'strategically insignificant.' These actions highlight the primary vulnerability of dictatorial decision-making: no one around such leaders will dare to speak honestly, let alone contradict the great man. As a result, failure inevitably results. Russia's military is floundering, its economy sinking. Putin must continue to demonstrate dominance in order to avoid being overthrown by his own claque. But the pillars of his rule are rotting - and he has only his own decision-making to blame. JL 

Mick Ryan reports in the Lowy Institute Interpreter
:

Every one of Putin’s assumptions about Ukraine was proven wrong within 24 hours of  Russians crossing the frontier: that the Ukrainian government was weak and would fall; that the Ukrainian military would not fight for long; and that NATO would not offer military assistance to Ukraine. Instead, a battered Russian army was repulsed and forced into a humiliating retreat as was his Black Sea fleet, months later. Putin’s strategy of brutalization also backfired as Ukrainians learned losing to Putin and being subject to his occupation would be much worse. And Russia’s long-term reliance on China, and North Korea means Russia is beholden to other nations - unlike truly great powers. Authoritarians, by their nature are vulnerable to degrading their aggression, resources and influence.

AI Talent Wars Are Rewriting Norms For Founders, the Tech Workforce and VCs

Loyalty? Trust? Yeah, talk to my agent and lawyer. The AI talent wars are doing more than just making a few young programmers unimaginably rich: they are rewriting the literal and figurative contracts between founders, their so-called employees and investors, especially VCs. 

Given the scale and scope of rewired compensation expectations in the tech world, investors are going to be impacted as employment contracts, loyalty (or the lack thereof) capital requirements, potential dilution and conflicts of interest all affect returns. Just in the past two weeks, there have been instances of founders being lured away from the companies they started. The impact for VCs and other investors is likely to be less than optimal in the short term, but the bigger question is whether, in the longer run, regression to the mean will again assert itself. JL

John Luttig reports in his blog
:

If the top 1% of companies drive the majority of VC returns, why shouldn’t the same apply to talent? In the two and a half years post-ChatGPT, AI catch-up investment has gone parabolic. Trust can no longer be assumed as an industry baseline. The step-up in capital deployment is deterritorializing. It breaks down the social contract of company formation, the loyalty of labor, the duty to sustain a working product and conflict rules investors used to follow. The M&A talent war is just beginning, raising compensation baselines and labor promiscuity. AI companies will be structurally less profitable and more dilutive. New labor dynamics are emerging: agents, unions, aggressive non-competes to protect against founder departures. Investors must be more flexible as AI talent wars rewrite employment contract investment norms, concentrate returns, raising the bar for capital creating new companies.

Jul 22, 2025

Ukraine Drone Operators Erase 3 Russians Who Shot Lyman Area Civilian Bicyclist

A 63rd Mechanized Brigade drone captured the murder of a Ukrainian civilian in the village of Torske, in the Lyman sector. 

The civilian was in the wrong place at the wrong time, riding his bicycle past three Russian soldiers who decided to shoot him for no discernible reason other than their own amusement. Since Ukrainian soldiers filmed the incident, they knew where to look for the perpetrators and then dealt with them summarily. JL

Taras Safronov reports in Militarnyi:

In the village of Torske, in the Lyman salient, the Russian military shot a civilian riding a bicycle and then killed him at close range. A 63rd Mechanized Brigade drone recorded the crime. Ukrainian FPV drones and artillery tracked down and destroyed the war criminals. “There was no need for a trial – instant karma worked. Our drone pilots and artillerymen eliminated all three Russians.” Torske is a part of the “Lyman salient” – an area that prevents the enemy from advancing to Siversk, Lyman, and Sloviansk.

Ukrainian Engineers Disguise Antitank Mines With Birch Tree Bark

Stacks of birch logs are common in many of the areas where Ukrainian troops are fighting the Russians. 

Camoflaging an antitank mine with tree bark not only makes it harder to identify, but also disguises it from mine detectors and thermal imaging. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

Ukrainian forces disguised a PTM‑3 anti‑tank mine as a lifelike tree stump. It was hidden among the numerous stacks of similar logs that are a common feature of the forested areas where much of the fighting in the Kursk and Kharkiv regions take place. The use of natural materials, such as tree barks, not only makes the PTM-3 difficult to identify visually but also provides another barrier to identifying it using conventional mine detectors, which is already difficult because of its limited metal content or thermal imaging.

Ukrainian Sniper Tanks Destroy Failed Russian Attack Towards Kupiansk

Russian forces have been attempting without success to advance on Vovchansk and Kupiansk for over a year. 

They have tried to do so again in recent weeks, but ran into Ukraine's increasingly effective - and lethal - 'sniper tank' tactic in which a lone highly mobile and accurate Ukrainian tank ambushes the attacking Russians and quickly wipes them out before disappearing as fast as it arrived. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Russian forces around Vovchansk have been stuck in a stalemate for over a year, failing repeatedly to achieve significant breakthroughs. The Russian opened a new axis northwest of Kupiansk (but) the Ukrainian command acted decisively, sending in experienced tank units to smash the enemy and push him back over the border with Ukrainian T-64BV tank and a BTR-4E Bucephalus engaging Russian infantry hidden within tree lines at point-blank range, effectively neutralizing the advancing enemy assault group.

Russia's Desperate "Short Death Rushes" Fail To Make Pokrovsk Breakthrough

Increasingly without armor or much artillery, Russian troops are being ordered to attack on foot in desperate 'short death rushes,' which may gain a few yards of ground but result in massive casualties. 

The effect in sectors like Pokrovsk, where the Kremlin has focused so much attention, is the appearance on maps of slivers or 'fingers' of gains, which some western journalists call advances, but which most experienced military experts consider so weak and narrow that they will inevitably be cut off or remain too ineffective to support further attacks. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

More and more, Russian advances take the shape of small finger like protrusions—many of which have popped up around Pokrovsk. The battlefield has become increasingly restricted to limited advances - a kilometer here, a kilometer there - that cannot result in breakthrough or  exploitation. What we have now is the short death rush—small advances on foot or motorcycle, as Russian forces rush forward in a narrow area, hope to grab a little bit of land and then hold on.

AI Success - Or Lack Of It - Begins To Differentiate Big Tech Stocks

The Magnificent Seven tech stocks are currently reduced to four as Nvidia, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft reap the benefits of their AI initiatives while Google, Apple and Tesla have failed to convince investors that their efforts will bear fruit. 

Google is hampered by perceptions that its wildly profitable search business will be cannibalized by AI chatbots. Apple has suffered because its AI work is considered substandard compared to its competitors and Tesla has been decimated by its luminary owner's bizarre and flighty political behavior, which has inadvertently hurt EV sales while at the same time undermining his claims that it is evolving into an AI company. There are some who believe Google and Apple will eventually figure this out and are strong enough to ride out the current difficulties. Tesla does not yet enjoy that sort of optimism. JL

Roshan Fernandez reports in the Wall Street Journal
:

Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla have lorded over the stock market in recent years, linked by the outsize role they share in the economy’s future and the significant slice they comprise in the S&P 500 index. This year, though, shares of Nvidia, Meta and Microsoft have climbed 20% or more, while Apple and Alphabet are down 16% and 2%, respectively. Half of the tech-stock group has reaped the rewards of AI optimism. The chip giant Nvidia has been the clearest winner in the AI race thus far. (But) Apple, Tesla and Alphabet have suffered as Apple failed to woo investors with its AI efforts, Google faces mounting concern that AI chatbots will eat its search business and Tesla has flagged due to falling EV sales and Elon Musk's foray into politics. 

Russian Troops At Bakhmut Refuse Attack Order, Kill Commander, Surrender

In the third such incident in a month, Russian frontline troops refused an officer's order to launch an attack on Ukrainian positions without armor or artillery support, which the soldiers understandably regarded as a suicidal mission with little hope of achieving its supposed objective. 

When their commanding officer threatened to have them shot for refusing the order, they killed him and then surrendered. This incident reportedly occurred in the Bakhmut sector. The month's previous mutinies occurred on the Lyman and Kupiank fronts. The implication is that Russian army morale is worsening as units are being ordered to make unsupported attacks with little hope of survival. JL 

John Varga reports in the Daily Express
:

Russian soldiers shot and killed another commander after refusing to take part in a suicidal attack. The latest incident took place on the Bakhmut front. Putin's commanders have shown scant regard for the lives of their soldiers, happy to sacrifice them in order to eke out any territorial gains. Troops have found themselves thrown at heavily defended Ukrainian positions with next to no support, sustaining horrific losses. (This is the third such incident in a month): a platoon from Russia's 20th Combined Arms Army recently refused orders to make an unsupported attack. Last month, a unit of Russian soldiers fighting on the Kupyansk front also shot and killed their senior officers, before making a run for it.

Jul 21, 2025

Ukrainian Special Forces Raids Along Border Disrupt Russian Offensive Plans

In a series of skirmishes along the border with Russia, Ukrainian special forces, often operating behind enemy lines, continue to attack Russian positions and logistics, disrupting the Kremlin's attempts to prolong their now disappointing summer offensive.

The point of the Ukrainian raids is to forestall any Russian efforts to salvage residual value from what is now universally recognized as another lost season of offense by Putin's forces. JL

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Working beyond the line of contact, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces detected and successfully raided Russian troops who were attempting to establish a new position near the Ukrainian border. The Special Operations Forces came under heavy artillery fire from Russian troops. The Russians attempt to gain a foothold failed. 

Why Putin Can't Beat Ukraine In the 50 Days Trump Gifted Him

Reports indicate that Trump came up with his 50 day deadline for Putin to get back to him on a peace plan because Putin told him that was all the time he needed to finish Ukraine. As if.

It is doubtful that Putin will even be able to claim any meaningful gains in that time, let alone 'win.' Ukraine's defenses - learned from those Russia designed to thwart their 2024 offensive - are proving impossible to breach, even as its drones destroy what is left of his army. Meanwhile, his troops are declining in quality, he has so little armor left that he's forced to save what he has in case war with Europe breaks out, his artillery is running out of gun barrels because they require special steel and are difficult to engineer, China is making most of his drones - and his economy is both boiling over (inflation) and melting down as competing demands for business subsidies and recruit bonuses drain his treasury. In short, 40 or 50 days from now, Russia will be where it has been for three years: still trapped in a war it cannot win. JL 

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

Putin told Trump 10 days ago that in 60 days he will be done with Ukraine. He and whose army? Certainly not with the one Putin has in the field. At current rates of advance and loss, Russia would capture the rest of Ukraine in 2256 at the cost of 101 million casualties (Its current population is 144 million). Russia has not taken one of Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt" cities.  Even the key outer towns of Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Siversk and Toretsk still stand despite Russian forces attacking them since April, 2024. Then on June 30th and July 3rd with a double strike on the 8th Army and its massive cache of arms at Donetsk and Khartsyzk, Ukraine took out the upper echelon command for the 2025 Summer offensive against Pokrovsk.

Two Ukraine Sergeants Capture Poorly Equipped Russians In Serebrianskyi Forest

A Russian unit surrendered to two Ukrainian sergeants in the Serebrianskyi Forest, the scene of bitter fighting for over two years. 

The Ukrainians reported that the Russians were poorly equipped with old rifles, a single pack of cigarettes and no water. This reinforces the growing number of reports confirming that while Russia has plenty of untrained troops, it has limited supplies and its logistics remain substandard. JL

Volodymyr B. reports in Militarnyi:

Two sergeants of the 63rd Mechanized Brigade took multiple Russian soldiers prisoner in the Serebrianskyi Forest. The first group did not resist and immediately surrendered. The second group attempted to resist – they opened fire and threw grenades – but eventually surrendered. The Ukrainian 107th Territorial Defense Battalion noted that the captured soldiers had been extremely poorly supplied. The prisoners had only a single pack of cigarettes, old rifles, tourniquets, and a complete lack of water.

Ukraine's 1970s Era German Gepard "Flakpanzer" Hits Multiple Drones With 1 Burst

A 1970s surplus German mobile air defense gun has become Ukraine's most effective anti-drone weapon, capable of shooting down multiple UAVs with a single burst. 

This demonstrates that many aging NATO weapons, considered obsolete as technological innovations superseded them, have found new life in a different era on a different battlefield. The looming question is how many more of those there may be in NATO arsenals. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

An anti-aircraft vehicle from the Cold War is Ukraine's top killer of Russia’s Shaheds. The German-made Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns—each armed with a pair of radar-cued 35-mm Oerlikon autocannons—are some of the most efficient defenses against the Shaheds. “Automated 35-mm gun systems produce dense projectile clouds.” Ukraine’s 80 Gepards and nearly identical, ex-Jordanian Cheetah SPAAGs—all German-built but some sent by the US—are cheap. The vehicles are decades-old, surplus to their original operators’ needs and simple and reliable by today’s standards. “A German Gepard with twin 35-mm Oerlikon cannons once shot down multiple drones with a single burst,” 

Russia's "Anemic" Summer "Big Push" Will Not Result In Breakthrough

With August - and the beginning of the end of summer - two weeks away, Russia's big summer push appears anemic so far, with insignificant gains despite its huge advantages in men and materiel. 

The primary reasons for this are Russia's ongoing inability to translate its resource superiority into consistent force projection, largely due to leadership failures, Kremlin interference and declining troop quality. Ukraine, by contrast, has strengthened its defensive lines, enhanced the lethality of its dominant drone forces and continues to outthink the Russians. Most knowledgeable observers now expect Russia to be unable to continue fighting sometime in 2026, eg in five to twelve months, even with China and North Korea determined not to let Russia fail - which is very different from helping it win...JL  

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

It is unlikely that Russia's "Big Push" will result in a major shift, or provide any significant new leverage points for negotiations. Ukraine is imposing significant costs on the Russians and denying them breakthroughs. Ukraine's multiple new defensive lines in eastern Ukraine are bearing fruit, and the Russian offensive in the Sumy region has been halted by Ukraine. Any ‘acceleration’ of captured Ukrainian territory is measured against the anemic progress Russia made in the past 18 months. The Kremlin has decided 2025 is the year of decision for the war due to a straining national budget, declining quality of their forces, increasing reliance on North Korea & China, and pressure from President Trump. Putin stepped up operations, (but) Russia still struggles to translate its vast resource advantage into force.

The Key To the Corporate AI Future Is Building Talent And Intellectual Property

Big tech companies like OpenAI and Meta are paying $100 million bonuses to poach top AI talent from each other, as well as from lesser competitors. So what are 'mere' Fortune 500 companies, not to mention smaller enterprises, supposed to do?

The answer lies in corporate assets that have been hiding in plain sight: intellectual property and advancement through training. IP, once dismissed as 'soft' compared to ostensibly 'hard assets' like real estate and factories, now dominates the economic value chain. Organizations that invest in their IP - and in protecting it - have a resource they can monetize and/or with which they can bargain. And when it comes to talent, there are only so many AI geniuses out there, but there are plenty of competent people/employees with good tech skills who are tied for various reasons to a place or employer. Effective implementation of AI as a means of optimizing performance may, in the long run, be more important than inventing more of it. Offering to pay employees to upgrade their skills, even if some eventually leave for more money or opportunity elsewhere (as they always have) is another way for 'normal' businesses to enhance their results and their futures. JL 

Thibault Spirlet reports in Business Insider
:
The AI arms race will be won by companies that hoard top talent and lock up valuable intellectual property. "IP is king" as the competition heats up. "The days of publish or perish are over. It's now publish, and its value perishes, because it got eaten up by every foundational model." "Encrypt and silo" valuable IP, and sell it to the highest bidder — or keep it behind a paywall. Meta has offered signing bonuses of up to $100 million, part of a $15 billion deal to recruit Scale AI's CEO, Alexandr Wang, and other top talent. "We are seeing them hire away talent and IP to advance their models. They will pay to lock up the IP they think their models need and the people who create it, just to keep it away from their competitors."

Jul 20, 2025

Ukraine's Sabotage Forces Behind Russian Lines Increasingly Disruptive

Ukraine's substantial army of saboteurs, assassins, arsonists, spies and bombers has ground bolder and more effective. Both in the 'temporarily occupied territories'  held by Russian forces and in Russia itself, their attacks have grown more frequent and disruptive. 

And as data point to growing Russian economic vulnerability, as well as to increasingly ineffective military performance, these attacks are expected to expand. JL 

Paul Hockenos reports in Foreign Policy:

Ukrainian operatives are more engaged and efficacious than ever in the “temporarily occupied territories,” Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia. Their goal: to snarl the workings of Putin’s war machine by wrecking its infrastructure, murdering its officers, and tying down occupation personnel. "Every day there’s an act of sabotage carried out by pro-Ukraine forces,” -assassinations, ambushes, arson, poisonings, kidnappings, and bombings. There are a dozen groups - 3,000 operatives and 10,000 civilians - disrupting Russian operations behind enemy lines—and now  reaching deep Russia. “Even though Russian control has become tighter, the Ukrainian underground applies consistent pressure. They make it harder for Russia to communicate, to move people and supplies to the front.”

Ukraine's Air Defense Volunteers Score More Hits As Digital Targeting Looms

Many of Ukraine's air defense units are made up of volunteers who work at it part time. Despite the growing volume of Russian drone and missile attacks, the Ukrainians' record is impressive. 

They expect their accuracy to continue to improve as new digital targeting systems become more widely available. For now, they rely on experience and skill. JL

Stefan Schocher reports in the Kyiv Post:

A Ukrainian air defense unit is made up of volunteers: craftsmen, construction workers, warehousemen and entrepreneurs. They do 20 days of paid work and five days of service. For the commander, it’s a full-time job. The Ukrainian army provides weapons and ammunition. Vehicles, night vision devices and other materials are sourced through donations. 5 groups totaling 20 men are on duty in this sector, between Kyiv and the Russian border.  “When a missile or a Shahed enters a zone of five kilometers, we can hear it. We determine where it’s going and search the sky using thermal imaging goggles. If it enters the hit zone in our sights we open fire.” Experience is what matters most: the men claim they can discern the flight altitude and direction of these weapons by sound.

At Pokrovsk, Ukraine Repels Repeated Attacks As Russians Appear "Weakened"

Ukrainian forces defending Pokrovsk have continued to repel attempted Russian attacks despite the Russians' numerical advantage and disregard of already massive casualties. Ukrainian forces are reporting that Russian offensive capabilities appear weakened, probably due to the other Kremlin-mandated attacks on Sumy, Kharkiv and elswehere driven by the Russians' frustration at their inability to take Pokrovsk. 

While western media continue to regurgitate ominous Kremlin talking points, they have been predicting Pokrovsk's "imminent" fall for over a year now, leading more informed observers to question both the medias' vocabulary and knowledge about the war. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Russian forces have intensified offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, with the heaviest activity in the Pokrovsk sector. Ukrainian troops are holding their ground. Despite Russia's attempts to leverage its numerical advantage, the Ukrainian forces engaged continue to repel the Russians' attacks over the past day on Ukrainian Defense Forces positions near Rusyn Yar, Poltavka, Popovyi Yar, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Mykolaivka, Sukhy Yar, Zvirove, Myroliubivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Molodetske, Orikhove, Novosergiyivka, Dachne, and Oleksiivka. The 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade said Russian offensive capability has weakened along the Donetsk front.