Putin Learns the Hard Way His Subversion Of Global Rules Damage Russia

Putin is outraged that the contempt for international laws and norms that he has embraced is now being applied by others towards Russia. 

Turnabout is fair play, like it or not. JL

Raj K reports in Medium:

European countries are stopping and seizing Russian ships (‘shadow fleet’) that are accused of carrying oil or grain in violation of sanctions. Under new European rules, there is talk of selling these seized goods and giving the grain to Ukraine. Putin said, “We can see that officials of some countries, breaking international maritime law have even considered seizing our ships and selling the property stolen from us.” They are setting a precedent where the rule of ‘might is right’ (Law of the Jungle) will apply.

Recently, Putin spoke on the ongoing issue of European governments and navies seizing Russian ‘shadow fleet’ ships near the coasts of Europe.

European countries (like France and Sweden) are stopping and seizing Russian ships (‘shadow fleet’) that are accused of carrying oil or grain in violation of sanctions.

Under new European rules, there is talk of selling these seized goods and giving the grain to Ukraine.

According to Reuters, Putin said, “We can see that officials of some countries, breaking international maritime law, are trying to restrict the movement of our economic operators’ ships…, and recently they have even considered seizing our ships and selling the property stolen from us.”

Putin directly called this ‘Piracy’. He clearly stated that if European countries continue seizing Russian ships, Russia will also seize European ships in return.

The biggest issue right now is whether the European Union (EU) has the legal right to stop ships in international waters and sell their goods.

Even if this action is being taken in the name of sanctions, seizing and selling the property of a sovereign nation violates the basic principles of ‘international maritime law’ (UNCLOS).

If Western countries start forcibly selling the property of other countries’ ships, they are setting a precedent where the rule of ‘might is right’ (Law of the Jungle) will apply.

Most of the world’s trade happens through sea routes (like the Indian Ocean, Baltic Sea, and Red Sea).

If Russia targets European commercial ships to take revenge, global shipping insurance rates will suddenly rise sharply.

As ship insurance becomes expensive, the transport cost of oil, food grains, and daily-use items will increase, which will directly impact the common person’s pocket in the form of inflation.

If this continues, the global free trade system created after World War II will completely collapse.

This could lead to a situation where merchant ships need to be armed (Arming Merchant Vessels), which will prove disastrous for the global supply chain.

Look, the “rules-based international order” created by Western countries after World War II has now completely broken down.

When America and Europe freeze any country’s property or seize ships according to their convenience, they themselves are driving the final nail into the coffin of international laws.

Now the world is not moving forward by ‘law’, but on the principle of ‘tit-for-tat’ and ‘might is right’.

Russia invaded Ukraine, and in return, Ukraine also shook Russia’s entire economy, meaning Russia received an equal reply. What decision Putin takes in the future regarding the shadow fleet will be decisive.

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In 2015, when the Assad government was on the brink of falling, Russia intervened militarily and launched devastating airstrikes on rebels (especially groups active in Idlib).

The irony is that the jihadist fighters whom Russia spent years suppressing with its military power are today ruling Damascus as Syria’s new ‘Shara government’.

Russia now has to sit at the table with those same former rebels to negotiate for its military presence.

Recently, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed regarding the future of its bases located in Tartus and Khmeimim.

The naval base in Tartus was extremely important for Russia because it was Russia’s only deep-water port in the Mediterranean Sea.

Through it, Moscow maintained its naval surveillance over Southern Europe and the Middle East.

Under the new agreement, even though Russian soldiers will stay there, the control of civilian facilities and commercial berths will have to be handed over to the Syrian government.

Russia’s main goal in Syria now is not to establish dominance in the region, but to deliver supplies to its military units working in Africa (Sahel region) and the Wagner/Africa Corps.

Syria is no longer a ‘project power center’ for Russia, but has become merely a ‘transit hub’.

This MoU, signed between Syria and Russia on August 9, officially confirms that Russia has accepted the end of its decade-long aggressive military campaign in the Middle East.

Look, everyone has their own views on this whole matter. One group believes that Russia’s step back from the Tartus and Khmeimim bases in Syria, or handing over their civilian control to the Syrian government, is a major strategic loss for Putin.

On the other hand, practical thinkers argue that, being entangled in Ukraine, it was not wise for Russia to spend resources in Syria, 1,200 miles away from its border.

Getting out of Syria by cutting losses and keeping only a strategic ‘transit hub’ is a geopolitical compulsion for Moscow.

For now, looking at the situation, it seems that Moscow has accepted that it cannot maintain its old dominance in Syria while being entangled in the Ukraine war.

Even if Russia retained the bases as logistics hubs for Africa operations, its total control over the Mediterranean Sea has ended.

Assad’s fall and Syria’s new political scenario prove that the post-World War II global balance of power is now completely broken. Now the world will not run on the commands of just one or two superpowers.

You should also notice that not only is Russia’s influence declining in Syria, but America and the European Union are also losing their old grip on the Middle East.

As America and Russia step back from their distant military bases (outlying bases), considering them an economic and military burden, China, Turkey, and local regional powers are coming forward to fill this power vacuum.