Putin's 'Victory' Parade Once Projected Power. Now It Reveals Weakness

This year's Moscow Victory Day parade featured no tanks or other armored vehicles, no big new missiles - but lots of anti-drone protection. 

And in a comedown missed by no knowledgeable observers, the Kremlin was forced to agree to a 1,000 POW prisoner swap in order to assure that Ukraine would not attack Red Square during the parade. Pathetic. JL

Peter Dickinson reports in The Atlantic Council:

Vladimir Putin insists his invasion of Ukraine is going according to plan, but indications that all is not well are becoming increasingly difficult to disguise. While his army struggles to advance in Ukraine amid catastrophic casualties, the Ukrainians are bombing high-value targets deep inside Russia with regularity. With Russia needing all its armor to replace losses in Ukraine, finding enough has become increasingly challenging. In 2023, the Kremlin could only muster a single tank, sparking widespread mockery. “There are farmers in Ukraine with more Russian tanks than that.”  This dramatic downgrade represents a tacit admission by Putin that he can no longer ensure security in his own capital. Putin’s obvious inability to protect his own showpiece will now underscore perceptions the regime is losing control of the narrative and has become trapped in a war it cannot win but dare not end.

Russian-Occupied Donetsk Increasingly Cut Off By Ukraine's Drone Strikes

In yet another implementation of Ukraine's comprehensive war-fighting strategy, Ukrainian forces have systematically targeted roads, railroads, storage depots and other logistics nodes surrounding Donetsk city, cutting off both the urban center and its role in supporting Russian offensive operations in that oblast. 

The result has virtually collapsed the Kremlin's planned assault on Ukraine's Fortress Belt this summer. A layered system of short, medium and long range drone strikes has hit specific types of targets within each segment, contributing to an overall diminution of military capabilities. JL

RFU News reports:

Ukraine has effectively encircled Russian-controlled Donetsk city by cutting off Russian supplies, creating a denial zone using a layered system of drone coverage. Ukraine is now striking Russian targets so far behind the front line, it threatens to collapse the Russian summer offensive. Ukrainian units have intensified strikes on the Russian rear as far as 100 to 300 kilometers to systematically disrupt Russian logistics that sustain frontline operations. Ukraine has struck 500 targets, of which 200 were warehouses, command posts, and maintenance sites, storing and repairing weapons, armored vehicles, and other equipment. No Russian truck can move without being targeted, even though the frontline is 60 kilometers away. Restricting movement also degrades staff coordination, slows intelligence flow, and delays reinforcements, compounding the broader operational impact.

Laptop, Phone, Game Console Prices Surge Due To AI Chip Demand

Despite the ongoing hype about AI making life better for everyone in every way, the reality is that it is driving up a variety of costs including electricity, water and now mobile phones, laptops and other consumer electronics. All because of the increased demand for AI usage. 

In the consumer electronics case, demand for AI chips is causing manufacturers to focus on those while cancelling the lower margin chips used for less expensive consumer goods. People can debate whether this is an economic benefit or not over the long term, but not the fact that the costs are rising.  JL

Samuel Gibbs reports in The Guardian:

The end of the (affordable) laptop, the bargain phone and cheap games consoles may be on the horizon because the cost of computer components has shot up. The cause is a shortage of memory chips which the tech press has dubbed “RAMageddon” (due to) the growth of AI and the datacenters it relies on. Prices for laptops costing $900 might increase by as much as 40% in 2026 owing to the memory chip shortage and other rising costs. A huge expansion of server farms  has sucked up not only the world’s current supply, but its production capacity for several years, creating a shortage of memory. Manufacturers have switched to high-end chips to meet AI demand. Cheaper laptops, phones and other electronics have smaller margins, so face larger price increases. Memory accounts for 30% of the cost of a budget smartphone and 23% of an entry-level laptop, meaning budget models may no longer be viable. "The sub-$500 entry level PC will disappear by 2028."

Russia Is In No Mood To Celebrate As Kremlin's Big Parade Approaches

The deal the Russian people have made with the Putin Kremlin is that they will tolerate a high degree of repression in return for a decent standard of living - and safety. But the stymied, arguably failing, war against Ukraine is now threatening that bargain. Prices and taxes are high. Catastrophic Russian casualties are now leading to even once-invulnerable children of the elite to face conscription, which many Russians understandably view as a death sentence. 

The latest humiliation is that Ukraine has refused to agree to a ceasefire during the Kremlin Victory Day parade tomorrow, meaning that fear of Ukrainian drone attacks is rife. And the parade will not even feature any armored vehicles or big weapons systems because so many have been destroyed in the war with Ukraine. So the big news tomorrow will not be the unveiling of some new missile or tank, but whether or not Ukrainian drones strike Red Square during the parade. Kyiv, increasingly, controls the war's narrative. JL

Valerie Hopkins reports in the New York Times:

The May 9 procession on Red Square in the heart of Kremlin power is being curtailed because of the potential for Ukrainian drone strikes. The May 9 holiday, Victory Day, is the most important on the Russian calendar. The Kremlin has made the Soviet triumph in World War II a civil religion for Russians. (But) the mood is hardly festive. Prices and taxes are rising as the economy struggles to bear the cost of the war in Ukraine. A new wave of repressive measures has led to internet restrictions. Polls show record numbers of war-weary Russians want peace. Showing unaccustomed weakness, the Russian government appealed unsuccessfully to Ukraine for a cease-fire on the parade day and acknowledged “additional security measures” to protect President Vladimir V. Putin. 

How Russia's Catastrophic Special Operations Force Losses Have Hurt War Effort

Rather than responding to massive infantry and armored casualties against Ukrainian forces by rethinking their tactics, the Russian command chose, instead, to replace dead and wounded soldiers with elite, highly trained paratroopers, naval infantry (marines) and special forces. 

The result has been unusually high losses among its once-feared elite troops, who are difficult to replace because of their physical attributes, motivation and special training. This has contributed to Russia's cascading problems in Ukraine this year as they have few reliable units left to plug gaps and react quickly to immediate threats. JL

Julian McBride reports in The Small Wars Journal:

The war in Ukraine is seeing Russia amass significant casualties with few strategic objectives achieved. Due to significant losses of infantry, the RuAF have embedded special forces amongst motor rifle units resulting in paratroopers, special operators, and Marines (naval infantry) taking enormous losses, filling in frontline roles they are not used to. As of 2025, 50% of airborne troops have been killed or wounded. The Marines have also taken catastrophic casualties, resulting in Naval Infantry brigades being reconstituted repeatedly. The elite 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade has restructured eight times. And of the 900 Spetsnaz operators initially deployed to Ukraine, only 125 were able to return to combat. Decimation of specialized troops in Ukraine will not only take years to reconstitute, but have detrimental effects on Russian capabilities and ongoing battlefield operations.

Ukraine Has Emerged As the Big Winner of the Russian...and...Iranian Wars

Oh how the ironies abound. It was a year and a few months ago that President Trump publicly told Ukrainian President Zelensky "you don't have the cards" and Putin continued to insist that nothing short of maximal capitulation would satisfy Russia. Those statements did not age well. 

Not only is Ukraine winning - by a number of metrics - in its own war against Russian invasion, but it is doing so in such a significant fashion that as the US confronts its failure to subdue Iran, wealthy Gulf states and European countries are lining up to pay Ukraine vast sums for its drone and anti-drone weaponry, its expertise in using them and even in teaching its militaries how to fight a modern war. To put is succinctly, Ukraine has weathered - and even thrived under - the loss of US support, while American military prowess and reliability as wielded by the current administration have been exposed as wanting. But the US has good company - because Russia  and China have also revealed that they are feckless, unreliable allies whose promises of support to Iran turned out to not be worth very much, even against the relatively hapless Americans. Which leaves Ukraine as arguably the free, civilized world's best hope for protection against this planet's authoritarian wannabe bullies. JL

Con Coughlin reports in The Telegraph:

While  the world has been preoccupied with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Kyiv has exploited the conflict to its advantage. One of the tangible indications has been on the battlefield where, Ukraine has established a significant advantage in its war with Russia. It’s army recorded almost no gains in Ukraine in March for the first time in two-and-a-half years and the Ukrainians achieved a number of localized breakthroughs as the Russians  continue to suffer catastrophic casualties. Ukraine’s increasingly effective battlefield performance is attracting a great deal of interest from Europe and the Middle East. The Iran war has exposed the inadequacies of relying on China or Russia: neither was able to offer the ayatollahs meaningful protection. Russia’s appeal as a reliable ally is even less convincing given its underwhelming performance in Ukraine, which has resulted in Putin being forced to scale back his May 9 Victory Day parade for fear of Ukraine's drones.

Optimizing AI's Impact Requires "Fundamentally Restructuring Workflows"

Wait! You mean AI isn't just plug and play? It can't take care of the hard stuff and increase profits without throwing off executive pickleball schedules? I want my money back!

We've been hearing variations on that theme since the few remaining graybeards still haunting offices from the dotcom era were starting their careers. And the lesson remains the same: to optimize returns from new technologies - including or especially AI - requires investment, turmoil, tough decisions and, yes, significant upfront costs. Because rethinking and reimagining how the enterprise functions is part of the price of scaling an ostensibly thermonuclear economic revolution. It doesn't just happen. That reality is also part of the reason why so many organizations are taking so long to adapt to and adopt AI. And why the costs are greater than the Silicon Valley hype machine promised. Smart businesses committed to realizing AI's opportunities are buckling up, taking their medicine and getting on with it. JL

Chip Cutter and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Business leaders risk missing out if their use of AI is overly focused on efficiencies. Maximizing ROI in AI requires a fundamental restructuring of business workflows rather than just adopting new technology. As adoption progresses from individuals to small teams to cross-functional groups, so do the returns on AI investment. To enable AI to scale across the enterprise, processes need to be redesigned. That’s less about tech than updating processes and social dynamics. Instead of thinking about it as an IT project, focus on the end-user experience. There are challenges: documentation hardly ever matches the reality of how work is done. Businesses are bogged down by rules and legacy systems. Redesigning a process with AI requires new checks and balances to ensure the effort doesn’t skew performance or lead to unintended outcomes. The line between those that make broader use of AI and those that don’t "will come down to their operating model.”