Ukrainians At Pokrovsk Annihilate Another Attempted Russian Armor Assault

Around Pokrovsk the terrain is flat. Drones are everywhere. There is no place to hide, no chance for attackers to surprise defenders. In the case of this latest assault, Ukrainian drones detected the attack almost 10 kilometers from their objective. Most of the attackers were killed and their vehicles destroyed. 

But the Russians either dont care or are more afraid of the Kremlin than they are of the Ukrainians. So they keep attacking - and keep getting annihilated, with heavy losses of troops and equipment. We know they believe that they can outlast the Ukrainians, but the experience of the past three plus years suggest that that is a dare they are losing. JL 

Taras Safronov reports in Militarnyi:

Russian assault units on armored vehicles tried to break through closer to the Dnipro region in the Novopavlivka area. The Russians used five tanks, 12 armored vehicles, and 25 motorcycles for the latest attack, moving from three directions. Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance detected the enemy 5-10 kilometers away. The Russian armored vehicles were stopped directly near the village of Novooleksandrivka. “As a result of our shelling and the work of kamikaze drones, more than 70 invaders, two tanks, six armored vehicles, two cars, and 14 motorcycles were destroyed. Their offensive was defeated.”

Thousands of Ukraine Civilians Join Drone War Units Via App

Drone units are considered the most exciting - and least dangerous - in the Ukrainian military. 

To tap both the enthusiasm of younger potential recruits - and enhance the demonstrated effectiveness of drone warfare which has successfully stymied the larger and better equipped Russians - Ukraine has created an app through those interested can connect with and sign up for drone warfare units of their choice. This reduces time and bureaucratic hassle, thus advancing Ukraine's military goals by using digital technology. JL

Amira Barkhush reports in United24:

Over the past two months, more than 2,200 Ukrainians have applied via the Diia app to join drone warfare units. These units operate under the Drone Line initiative, which brings together infantry and UAVs into a single strike force, The service is available to candidates not currently serving in the military. Roles include FPV operators, Mavic/Autel drone pilots, UAV technicians, munition handlers, ground robotic system operators, drone assembly specialists. The applicant can select a specialty, fill out a short application, and join the desired unit. 

The Reason Putin's Refusal To Show In Istanbul Is A Strategic Error

President Trump no doubt understands Putin's decision not to appear for negotiations in Istanbul with Zelensky, whom he regards as a lesser being representing a country Putin considers a mere province. That's what the optics of dominance are about - and the US president is a master of them. 

But Putin's decision puts the US president in an uncomfortable position because his refusal to show is an insult - or, at the very least, a disrespectful gesture of refusing to submit - one to which Trump will have to respond for the same reasons of dominance optics. The Russian president is defying the US president. Trump cannot have that if he wants the world to continue to fear him. So at a time when the Russian military is already faltering - having failed to make any serious advances for over a year - the US will have to permit the sale of billions more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine and may even have to agree to further sanctions at a time when the Russian economy is, by consensus, beginning to suffer stagflation as it runs out of options. If the US president does not take some such action, his reputation as a ruthless authoritarian will be tarnished. Putin has thrown down a gauntlet, challenging the US to demonstrate its seriousness. He is betting Trump will back down, but that is not a sure bet and the cost of losing it is high. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Putin's has made many strategic errors in this war but his decision not to appear in Istanbul  might be his largest yet. The decision might be seen by the Trump administration as a deliberate insult. It could force Trump to take action including additional sanctions, and an increase in the amount of US weaponry that Trump permits Ukraine to purchase. Worse for Putin, he now looks smaller and more cowardly than he has throughout the war. After offering the talks, he has not demonstrated the courage to travel to face Zelensky directly. Putin’s objective has always been the complete subjugation of Ukraine. As long as Ukraine denies this to Putin, Russia cannot win this war.

Apple Will Be Raising iPhone Prices For Fall Model, Won't Blame Tariffs

Apple will almost certainly have to raise prices on the iPhone models to be introduced this coming fall due to the impact of tariffs - at least $900 million this year and more in the future - but it will never admit that publicly. 

Attempts to scale manufacturing in India are just beginning, suppliers have been squeezed as far as possible and making iPhones in the US are an uncertain project for years in the future. As a result, the cost of iPhones, especially the most popular and expensive models, will have to rise. JL

Rolfe Winkler and Yang Jie report in the Wall Street Journal:

Apple is weighing price increases for its fall iPhone lineup (but) is determined to avoid appearing to attribute price increases to U.S. tariffs on goods from China, where most Apple devices are assembled. A 20% tariff imposed on Chinese goods remains in place and covers smartphones. For Apple’s most profitable, high-end phones, the Pro and Pro Max models, China will continue to handle the bulk of production. India’s infrastructure and technical capabilities aren’t yet sufficient to support mass production at the scale China can deliver. Apple would have trouble making up for China tariff costs solely by seeking further savings from its suppliers, meaning that a hit to its profit margin was likely unless it could raise prices. Tariff would lead to $900 million in costs in this quarter, and more after that

In Ukraine's Latest Kursk Assault, Russian Bridges Are Blown To Prevent Re-supply

Ukrainian forces participating in the latest Kursk incursion are systematically blowing up Russian bridges and other logistics routes in order to starve and isolate Russian defenders. 

The tactics appear to be working - and are sufficiently precise that Russian troops and equipment are frequently crossing the bridges as they are hit. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Ukrainian forces are trying again to seize the momentum along the border. Ukrainian artillery and bombs are hitting the bridges leading to Tetkino in Russia's Kursk oblast, strangling Russian supply lines and some very unlucky Russian soldiers who got blown up in a precise Ukrainian bombardment. The Ukrainian brigades around Tetkino are staying close to the border, keeping their supply lines short—less thaт 2 kilometers, so far—while trying to defeat the Russians by cutting off their supplies. That means blowing up bridges and anyone on those bridges, such as that unlucky cameraman. And then blowing up the bridges again after the Russians repair them.

US Thinks Russia, Given War Failings, Has Badly Overestimated Negotiating Position

There is a growing consensus in the US, even among the Putin-friendly members of the current administration, that Russia has exaggerated its successes and overestimated the strength of its negotiating position. 

The Russian military's inability to subdue, let alone defeat the much smaller and weaker Ukrainians over three years of war - and its repeated failures at high cost this year - suggest that Putin's hope that Trump will give him the victory his own military could not may now be unrealistic and that he may have to settle for less than he hoped. JL

Paul Sonne and Adam Entous report in the New York Times:

The Trump administration has found Russian officials making extreme demands that the battlefield situation does not justify. While Russian forces have taken territory, they are a far cry from defeating the Ukrainians and have advanced at a very high cost. Over the past 15 months, Russia lost more than 400,000 troops to death or injury — a high cost for wresting control of less than 1% of Ukrainian territory. “Russia can’t expect to be given territory that they haven’t even conquered yet,” Vice President JD Vance said.

Ukraine Is Winning the War Now - And Putin Knows It

By most measures, Ukraine is now winning this war and trends are in its favor. Russia is barely replacing personnel losses, but has resorted to using motorcycles, school buses and civilian cars for attacks because it needs to retain what armor it has left in case of war with NATO, China or other emergencies - such as a surprise Ukrainian offensive this summer to further embarrass the Kremlin and undermine its false claims of military superiority. 

Putin would probably be willing to settle for taking what he has grabbed so far and then waiting for another chance in a year or so. But his problem is, after all the casualties and economic sacrifices, he needs to make a credible claim of 'victory,' which is difficult as long as Ukraine retains its hold on Russian territories along the joint border. That is the logical explanation for his intransigence heading into the Istanbul talks that may or may not happen. So his behavior represents a trade-off between holding on vs the threat that his troops crack and the Ukrainians break through. JL 

Peter Olandt reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine is winning this war right now.  And its advantages continue to accumulate. Most  war measures are trending in Ukraine’s favor. Russia’s equipment continues to degrade, they are trading massive casualties for little gain, and the Russian economy is nearing stagflation. Which means Ukraine's greatest opportunity is coming. Russia will be breaking and Ukraine needs to take advantage. When even Putin realizes he needs to quit while ahead, he will move to a peace deal to freeze the lines where they are before Ukraine takes advantage of Russian weakness and pushes them back.  But Putin needs to watch his back at home, and that is easier if he can sell his war as a victory. Ukrainian control of Russian territory puts a giant wrench in this.