A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 25, 2024

Ukrainians At Krasnohorivka Stop "Garage Tank" With Mines, Drones

The Russians are experimenting with more armored vehicle anti-drone defenses. Ukrainian soldiers call one of them the 'Garage tank' because it looks like it carries its own garage.

Another is called 'the Barbecue' because it has metal grills all around it. A major problem with that one is that there is only one 'door' to the grill, which in the tank's rear. Soldiers who can't get to it fast enough after a drone attack get 'barbecued.' So far, none of the Russian solutions to FPV drones, including electronic jammers, appear to work. JL 

Militarnyi reports:

A Russian tank with a giant anti-drone superstructure tried to storm the positions near Krasnohorivka. A colossal sheet metal structure was installed on the Russian tank, supplemented by an electronic warfare system to protect against attack drones. Mine trawls were also attached to the tank to clear the track. Following a style previously observed in Russian operations in Syria, this tank led a column of several IFVs as they advanced to break through Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainian military was still able to stop this tank

Russian Oil Refining Drops To 10 Month Low, Exports Down To 6 Month Low

Ukraine's strategic bombing with drones and missiles of Russia's oil refining and export capabilities is beginning to have a significant impact on its economy, which may not be sustainable since Russia produces little else of value to world markets. JL 

Artur Kryzhnyi reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Russia's average daily oil refining rate fell to the lowest weekly level in ten months after Ukrainian drone attacks hit major facilities. Russian ports' weekly exports of petrol dropped to 54,000 tonnes, a six-month low. Russia's high-octane fuel production fell for the fourth consecutive month due to the refinery repairs caused by the UAV attacks. "The decrease in shipments is due to the ban on the export of gasoline introduced by the Russian government, which began to operate on 1 March of this year." Russia has requested Kazakhstan to be prepared to deliver 100,000 tonnes of petrol due to fuel shortages

Why Meta Stock Sank 15 Percent On News Of Unexpectedly High AI Spending

The primary reason may be regulatory risk for Meta which has been openly contemptuous of government authorities in the past. 

But Zuckerberg's insistence on continuing to invest substantial sums in his highly touted metaverse, which is widely perceived to have failed, has also raised questions about the company's strategic acumen and discipline, given that it is largely controlled by the whims of one individual. JL

The BBC reports:

Shares of Meta went down more than 15% in after-hours trading in New York despite the tech giant revealing strong earnings figures. The firm said it now expected to spend between $35bn and $40bn, (£28bn-32bn) in 2024, up from an earlier prediction of $30-$37bn. "The biggest risk [for Meta] remains regulatory. More than 50 countries are due to have elections this year, which hugely increases uncertainty" and can spook advertisers.

How "21st Century Tech In 19th Century Trenches" Gives Ukraine An Advantage

Data, algorithms, drones and other new technologies are helping Ukraine counter Russia's advantage in men and materiel. 

The question is to what extent it can now anticipate as well as react, which would stymie Russia's military. JL 

David Sanger reports in the New York Times:

Commanders have a new way to put a full picture of Russia’s movements and communications into one big, user-friendly picture, employing algorithms to predict where troops are moving and where attacks might happen. Some of tech’s most prominent figures are at work on national security issues, (as) the US is harnessing its competitive advantage in technology to maintain superiority over Russia and China. (But) the experience in Ukraine has underscored how difficult it is to get 21st-century data into 19th-century trenches as a generation of new weapons learn to evade Russian air defenses and reconfigure themselves if some drones in the swarm are shot down.

Russian Suffers Most Casualties In Single Day Of War Yesterday

Increased Russian offensive efforts invariably lead to significant increases in Russian casualties and losses of armored vehicles, many of which are now exceeding daily records set since the invasion began. JL 

Brendan Cole and David Brendan report in Newsweek:

Another 1,040 Russian troops were "eliminated" between Wednesday and Thursday, which if accurate would make that 24-hour period the deadliest for Moscow's forces since 1,050 were reported eliminated on March 22. Russian forces' losses of four kinds of equipment are about to hit notable milestones: on Thursday, in the previous 24 hours, Russia had lost 14 armored fighting vehicles; Ukraine has destroyed 1,000 Russian drones, after downing 10 on Wednesday; and 28 artillery systems were taken out Wednesday

Ukraine's 47th and 100th Brigades Counterattack At Ocheretyne

There is no question that everyone in Ukraine is tired. The news of renewed US military aid has bolstered morale, but much damage has been done. 

A failed replacement maneuver at Ocheretyne, west of Avdiivka, led to a gap in the line, which Russian forces have attempted to exploit. Counterattacking units from the exhausted 47th Brigade, which thought is was heading for a rest - and from the 100th, which is underarmed - are now fighting to close the gap and halt the Russians. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

The 115th Mechanized Brigade was supposed to take the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s place in Ocheretyne, seamlessly filling the same fighting positions with enough troops to maintain the integrity of the defensive line west of Avdiivka. But the 115th Brigade failed to hold the line. So Ukraine ordered the 100th Mechanized Brigade - a former territorial brigade, the equivalent of a U.S. Army National Guard unit - to counterattack. "The Russian advance was stopped by a successful counterattack by the 100th Mechanized Brigade”(and) the withdrawing 47th Mechanized Brigade turned around and rejoined the fight.

Apr 24, 2024

ATACMS Secretly Shipped To Ukraine Already Hit Crimean Airfield, Russian Troops

The US secretly shipped ATACMS missiles to Ukraine last month, which have already been used to destroy a Russian military airfield in Crimea and troop concentrations in Zaporizhzhia oblast. 

The implication is that these missiles have a devastating impact and their deployment is a closely guarded secret. JL  

Courtney Kube reports in NBC:

The U.S. provided Ukraine with powerful long-range ballistic missiles for the first time earlier this month, and its military has already used them twice in the last week against Russian forces. The first strike was 100 miles inside Crimea’s border on the morning of April 17, targeting a Russian military airfield. The Ukrainian military used the U.S.-provided ATACMS, for the second time Tuesday night, targeting Russian forces east of the southeastern Ukrainian town of Berdyansk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The administration did not reveal at the time that it was sending Ukraine the long-range missiles for operational security reasons.