Ukrainian Surprise Attack Destroys Russian Preparations At Kupiansk, Kursk

Ukrainians forces are not passively waiting for the Russians to attack towards Kharkiv as numerous reports have revealed they are preparing to do.

Instead, Ukraine has disrupted the obvious Russian preparations, degrading their forces and making it more difficult to launch attacks, let alone succeed in doing so. JL

Sofiia Syngaivska reports in Defense Express:

Ukrainian forces in the Kupiansk sector of Kharkiv region destroyed or damaged 600 russian underground shelters, nine ammunition depots, and eight makeshift river crossings. These precision strikes were part of a broader strategy to prevent the enemy from establishing a presence on the right bank of the Oskil River. The operation, carried out by air assault troops and specialized units, aimed to disrupt Russia's attempts to expand its foothold across the Oskil River. Ukrainian forces eliminated 49 howitzers and cannons, 17 vehicles and motorcycles, three boats, two artillery systems, and two tanks. 439 invaders were killed or wounded during the operation, while six were captured

New York Times: If Trump Walks Away From Ukraine He Looks Weaker Than Putin

Having been publicly challenged yesterday by a reporter asking about the popular Wall Street meme "TACO" (Trump always chickens out), the New York Times followed up today with an editorial headline suggesting Mr. Trump would look weak if he walked away from Ukraine now that his suggestions for a ceasefire and peace have been dismissed by Putin. 

It would seem that the pressure is growing for the White House - despite its evident affection for Putin - to take a stronger stand on Ukraine. JL 

The New York Times Editorial Board comments:

Mr. Trump does not seem to care much what happens in Ukraine. He wants the US to stop payng for billions of dollars’ worth of military aid. Above all, he wants to look personally strong and successful. Mr. Trump likes to cite the ancient military principle of peace through strength. Absent a show of strength from the United States now, Mr. Putin will rationally assume weakness.

Qatar-US "Air Force One" Deal Not Final Due To Disputes Over Costs, Legal Issues

Details, details. The Qatar Air Force One deal may take some time to finalize because of legal and financial disputes between the US and Qatar. The White House insists that Qatar approached them about 'gifting' the plane. Qatar maintains that after the White House approached them it agreed to a sale, not a gift and that it is not responsible for conversion costs or needed maintenance.

Even if the transfer of the plane is eventually worked out, transforming the plane to meet US requirements could take a year and a half to two years and cost $1.5 billion. It is not yet clear who pays for that - or who would actually own it. JL

John Hudson and colleagues report in the Washington Post:

Despite claims by the Defense Department, legal teams representing the U.S. and Qatar have not finalized transferring the Boeing 747-8 jetliner President Trump wants for Air Force One. The delay reflects concerns about legal liability stemming from the White House maneuver to transform a sale between into a “gift.” Qatar is insisting a memorandum specify the aircraft’s transfer was initiated by the administration and that Qatar is not responsible for future transfers of the plane. Air Force officials reviewed the aircraft and found it “very poorly maintained." The Air Force said the jet could not ferry the president in its current state and estimated it could cost $1.5 billion to meet US requirements. 

Ukraine Is Inflicting An "Artillery Apocalypse" On Careless Russian Forces

Russian forces have been suffering from a shortage of artillery for almost a year now as Ukrainian drones, Himars and more effectiveness counter-battery fire take out towed and self-propelled howitzers, rockets and other big guns. This is happening at the same time the Russians are facing a shortage of desperately needed but hard to engineer new big gun barrels. 

The result is that as Russia attempts to launch yet another summer offensive - to follow its disappointing fall, winter and spring offensives - it has less of the necessary artillery support its desperate troops need. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

The first sign of the artillery apocalypse was on April 16, when a Ukrainian drone operator located 44 Russian towed artillery on a 12-mile-across sector near Pokrovsk. In trying to conceal their howitzers, including 122-millimeter D-30s, the Russians chopped down trees for camouflage. But they cut down trees directly in front of their guns’ positions, marking each with easy-to-spot raw stumps. Ukrainian drones noted the spots, and their artillery got to work. The degradation of Russian artillery is occurring in parallel with the decimation of it’s mechanized forces. Motor-rifle regiments' supporting artillery units are running out of big guns at the same pace they’re running low on tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

The White House's Social Media Tirades Are Not Swaying Putin

The Russian regime has murdered thousands of civilians in deliberate attacks. It has forcibly abducted Ukrainian children and given them to Russian families to raise. It has used banned chemical weapons on the battlefield and bragged about killing Ukrainian soldiers as they surrender. All of which are war crimes that, for the past century, civilized nations, including Soviet Russia (mostly), made efforts to avoid - or at least deny. 

So this is not a Kremlin nor Russian dictator likely to be impressed with outbursts on social media which are not followed by seriously increased levels of material support for Ukraine. JL

Tom Nichols reports in The Atlantic:

Donald Trump’s latest rhetorical blasts on Truth Social (were) to let everyone know he is very upset with Putin’s continuing campaign of civilian slaughter in Ukraine. (But) the only question that interests Putin is whether this will result in a change in US policy. Putin’s forces are in bad shape. (You don’t call in the North Koreans  for help when things are going well.) And so the Kremlin has returned to a campaign of terror and war crimes to break Kyiv’s will. This behavior is now a liability for Trump, who painted himself into a corner with claims he could end the war before he took office. Nothing is going to change until Putin sees more costs for his actions and the president stamping his feet on social media doesn’t count.

Russia's Kharkiv-Sumy Attack Forces "Obliterated" Before They Reach Front

As Russia attempts to concentrate forces for attacks on Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, its units are being 'obliterated' by Ukrainian drones, artillery and warplanes before they even reach the front. 

This has become a common occurrence as the focus of Russian assault options becomes more obvious and recon drones identify the Kremlin troops attempting to marshal for attacks. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

As Russian preparations became evident, Ukrainian forces targeted concentrations of enemy troops along the Kharkiv–Sumy border. TOS-1 thermobaric artillery systems were destroyed by FPV drones. In a separate precision attack, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command post in the rear, located in the town of Rylsk, eliminating the deputy commander of the 40th Marine Brigade, Alexander Danilov. A mechanized Russian assault on Lyptsi  was decimated by coordinated artillery fire and drone strikes, destroying nine BMPs, eight motorbikes and quads, and one tank, before the Russian assault could even cross the border. Along with the vehicles, Russians lost up to one hundred soldiers killed and wounded

Ukraine Is Destroying Russia's Doomed, Degraded, De-Mechanized Attacks

It's come to this: the Assault Lada. The Lada being a poorly built Soviet-era civilian auto, derided even for its performance while grocery shopping. 

But now, due to the decimation of Russia's once awe-inspiring armored forces, wasted over three years in hapless attacks against Ukrainian defenses, Ladas and other sub-standard Russian vehicles are being repurposed as un-armored personnel carriers.  Since Russian tanks and other armor were incapable of surviving on Ukrainian battlefields, the fate of these pathetic alternatives is a foregone conclusion. The theory, apparently, is that a soldier with a ride has more chance of success than he does walking, although recent experience, as described in the article below, suggests that may not be a bet worth taking. JL  

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

It’s evident, in the most recent Russian assault on Bahatyr - where regiments and brigades lack the combat power to even cross no-man’s-land and reach Ukrainian positions - that Russian units are badly depleted. On Saturday, Russian troops—from the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade—rode toward the town in 18 motorcycles and 10 civilian cars. Not a single armored vehicle in the mix. Out of 18 motorcycles, 15 were destroyed. Nine of 10 cars were hit. Forty Russians died.  “We knew they'd be down to civvie vehicles by 2025, but it (the "de-mechanization death spiral") happened earlier than expected.”