A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 6, 2011

Demographic Destiny? India's Population Growth Relative to China's

Analysts are beginning to talk about India's growth in ways reminiscent of the talk about China twenty years ago. The reason? Population growth. As the article from The Economist makes clear, India is adding a Brazil's-worth of people every year:

"The demographics of Asia's large countries are sometimes difficult to wrap one's head around. China's economy may surpass America's in size while its citizens remain far poorer than Americans, simply due to the fact that there are nearly five times as many of the former as of the latter. And this news out of India is truly stunning:

India added more than 181 million people to its swelling population in the past decade, growing to more than 1.21 billion people, according to census data released by officials Thursday. The total population grew from 1.02 billion people in 2001 to 1.21 billion this year, according to the preliminary calculations of the massive census exercise that ended in February.

The population of India — the world’s second-most populous nation after China — now is almost equal to the combined populations of the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Japan.
India has, in effect, added to its population the entire citizenry of Brazil, itself the world's fifth most populous country. This rapid growth is a major reason why some analysts are more bullish on India's long-term prospects relative to China's. India will continue to enjoy a demographic dividend while China's catch-up growth may be constrained by the pressure of an aging population.

But there is a dark side to this growth:

But the census’s most alarming finding is the continuing preference for sons over daughters in Indian society. In the past decade, the ratio of girls to boys for children aged 6 and younger has plunged to 914 girls per 1,000 boys. The ratio was 927 girls to 1,000 boys in the previous census.
The general preference for boys in developing countries has had catastrophic effects. One would have hoped that rising wealth would have an impact on these decisions, but for now things actually seem to be getting worse.

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