A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Dec 3, 2016

While We Weren't Looking, Snapchat Revolutionized Social Networking

Is authenticity supplanting virality? JL

Farhad Manjoo comments in the New York Times:

Every medium that has ever been popular online — from email to the web to social networks like Facebook — has been pervaded by things that are passed along from one user to another. This is not the case on Snapchat. Though Snapchat has introduced some limited means of forwarding people’s snaps, the short life of every snap means there is no means for content to become a viral hit within the app. There is, instead, authenticity.

Who Still Lives At Home With Their Parents?

Not what you might think. JL

Price Economics reports:

More adults live with their parents areas where the cost of living, and thus the bar one must clear to live independently, is high. Having more education means it’s less likely you’ll live at home. Males and females are virtually even when it comes to living at home.

There's More Than One Way To Share Your Car

The sharing is not just of use or ownership but of connectivity, data and visual imagery. The challenge will be determining the value split among the stakeholders. JL

Alon Bonder reports in Tech Crunch:

While fully autonomous cars might still be some years off, it’s not too early to start thinking more broadly about the role that cars play in today’s society. By 2020, up to 98 percent of new vehicles will ship with internet connectivity.As we approach higher rates of connectivity among vehicles on the road, we can unlock new opportunities to drive value from the network as a whole.

How Pokemon Go Is Trying To Win Back the Millions Who've Abandoned It

It was a thing, until it wasn't. But the company that created Pokemon Go is working hard to find ways to recapture that early enthusiasm, testing a number of tactics from the evolving canon of online business strategy.  JL

Ina Fried reports in Re/code:

Daily active use among U.S. iPhone users is less than 4 percent of what it was at its peak in August. (The company) has responded with a steady stream of changes, including tweaks to gameplay, rewards for users who play more often and special events that make it easier for those at higher levels to advance.

FCC Says ATT and Verizon 'Harm Consumers'

The US Federal Communications Commission is making it clear that the country's two primary mobile providers are giving customers a bad deal on increasingly important sponsored data plans. What is not clear is whether the incoming administration will support that point of view - or what alternative consumers' have. JL

Colin Lecher reports in The Verge:

The FCC writes that sponsored data plans from the telecom giants are a threat to net neutrality. “We have reached the preliminary conclusion that these practices inhibit competition, harm consumers, and interfere with the ‘virtuous cycle’ needed to assure the continuing benefits of the Open Internet.”

Why Free Returns Aren't Free

Online merchants are now paying, literally, for the free services that fueled their early market share race.

Returns are now growing faster than sales, especially during the holiday shopping period. Either customers are going to lose some of the privileges they have come to think of as a right, or the great online shopping bonanza will come to an end. JL

Bourree Lam reports in The Atlantic:

The gap these companies are trying to fill is between customer expectations and costly execution. On the retailer’s side, the end of Black Friday madness is the beginning of a long, expensive period of return madness, a norm they created. In the early grab for online market share, retailers went for sales at any cost—free delivery, free returns and cart optimization. Sales have grown, but shoppers have been re-educated and returns are growing faster than sales.

Dec 2, 2016

Amazon Gets Real About Fakes

The impetus was not a moral commitment to righting a wrong, but a response to lost sales from major vendors - like the National Football League and Major League Baseball - who refused to let Amazon sell their merchandise due to its poor policing of fakes. JL

Spencer Soper reports in Bloomberg:

The shift of spending from stores with inventory controls to online marketplaces where it's tough to distinguish between fake and authentic is fueling a rise in counterfeiting. Counterfeits made up $500 billion of global imports in 2013. A hot-sell(er) on Amazon encourages counterfeiters to make knockoffs, steal sales and damage a brand with few consequences. Amazon (now) requires merchants to prove they have the brand's permission to sell them online.

How Some Companies Are Vacuuming Up Everyone Else's Tech Talent

People with tech skills want to go where they can be innovative, work collaboratively - and be well compensated. Which is creating tremendous churn in the market for talent. JL

Maureen Mullen reports in Fast Company:

There's an exodus of digital talent from (traditional businesses) to digital-native companies. (And) Google has more yo-yo'ers than the other digital natives combined, which seems to validate the ROI on those features of its work culture. Facebook, Apple, and Amazon also consistently attract talent from other digitally native tech companies, including younger ones. (But) Uber, Lyft, and Airbnb have no trouble luring away Big Four alums with offers of equity

Apple and Samsung Woes Shake Smartphone Suppliers

Smartphones are a mega product that have generated their own industrial renaissance.

But with market saturation and declining sales, there does not currently appear to be another product on the horizon capable of similar economic impact. And that ripple effect will create a global problem for profits and employment. JL

Louise Lucas reports in the Financial Times:

There are about 300 to 500 key components and subassemblies (in your phone). But pull apart the mini cluster-assemblies, and the number is 2,000. With sales of 1.5bn a year, smartphones are a monster market. But what’s the next big driver? 80m cars shipped a year would equate to two weeks of smartphone production.The numbers pan out miserably for the 2m virtual reality headsets expected to be sold; the 12m annual servers sold or even the 20m Apple watches

Better Questions To Ask Your Data Scientists

You can't collaborate if you can't communicate. JL

Michael Li and colleagues report in Harvard Business Review:

Interacting in a new data-driven culture can be difficult. One particular challenge is how (managers) request new data or analytics from data scientists. They don’t know the right questions to ask, the correct terms to use, or the range of factors to consider to get the information they need. In the end, analysts are left uncertain about how to proceed, and managers are frustrated when the information they get isn’t what they intended.

HP Unveils Prototype of Next Generation Computer

In an increasingly cloud-oriented economic environment, speed and memory are converging in the same way many other components of  technology dependent systems are doing so. JL

Don Clark reports in the Wall Street Journal:

HP has created a working prototype of an unusual system that leans heavily on memory technology to boost calculating speed. In conventional computers, processors are the focal point of design while memory is regarded as a scarce commodity. (It's) designed to lower the cost of sending data over fiber-optic connections and could make it as fast to transmit data from one machine to another as within a single system. It could also stack components vertically to save space

How Decisions Are Made Matters

Organizations tend to focus on outcomes rather than processes. The incentives are usually designed to reward or punish in that way and our natural inclination is to emphasize ends over means.

But the psychological and social determinants of decision-making may have a profound influence on consequences. Which means that successful enterprises, and those who lead them, recognize that understanding and framing how decisions are made is necessary to obtain optimal results. JL

David Brooks comments in the New York Times:

While most economics models assumed people were basically rational, human decision-making is biased in systematic, predictable ways. The advice world is built on the premise that we are chess masters who make decisions. But when it comes to the really major things we mostly follow our noses. If we want to understand and shape behavior, we should look less at decision-making and more at curiosity. “The way the creative process works is that you first say something and later, sometimes years later, you understand what you said.”

Dec 1, 2016

JustEat Is Now Delivering Takeout With Self-Driving Robots in the UK

They are not programmed to expect a tip. Yet. JL

Darrell Etherington reports in Tech Crunch:

Deliveries from autonomous, six-wheeled rolling cooler bots are handling the “last mile” of food delivery from takeout restaurants.These bots are designed to be tamper-proof, so passers-by won’t just smell your delicious delivery curry and crack one open to score an unpaid meal.

Why an Online Learning Startup Is Offering Tech Job Tryouts

Easier to monetize in the short term, than are the MOOC undergraduate and graduate courses that were originally thought to be changing the face of education. JL

Steve Lohr reports in the New York Times:

The evolution points to the role that nontraditional education organizations might play in addressing the needs of workers and employers in the fast-changing labor market for technology skills.“For every Stanford graduate, there are hundreds of people without that kind of pedigree who can do just as well. ”Acquiring skills is one thing, but more than 900 graduates have obtained jobs, including more than 20 workers at Google

Six Billion Web Searches Bring China's Economy Into Focus

Between Baidu and Alibaba, Chinese authorities - and businesses - arguably have more data about consumers than any other country in the world. The question, as the following article explains, is whether they really want anyone to know what's in it. JL

Bloomberg reports:

Official data in China still lack key metrics, such as a regular survey-based unemployment rate. The question is, will the government allow this type of thing to flourish? If they start showing things starkly at odds with official data, that’ll be a real test of whether the regulatory environment is going to be supportive of these types of gauges.

How 'People Analytics' Can Impact Customer Experience

The factors that impact positive customer experience are those which a company can then invest in so that the results it drives - like return business and recommendations - can continue to enhance profitability. It is the chain of causality in the metrics that provides the most actionable and profitable insights. JL

Blake Morgan comments in Forbes:

The goal of the metrics is to gauge customer satisfaction and a customer’s intent to recommend (the company) to friends. It looks at trends in the metrics as a way to measure and improve the customer experience. (The company reviews results) weekly to see if guest satisfaction is building over time and if there is any variability between different areas of the establishment. Customers who have a better experience have more interactions with the staff.

Smartphone Growth Stalls Globally As iPhone Sales Decline

The market is saturated. Smartphone providers will now have to extract profits from services built around the phone - or come up with the next magical product. JL

Patrick Seitz reports in Investors Business Daily:

Worldwide smartphone shipments are projected to rise just 0.6% this year compare(d) with 10.4% in 2015. All signs point to 2016 being the first full year of declining shipments for Apple's iPhone. Apple's shipments declined in the first three quarters of this year and are expected to decline again in Q4. (But) Apple took 106% of smartphone industry profits in the third quarter. Its share is more than 100% because other vendors lost money in the business,

Can Uber Ever Deliver?

Uber has generated a massive valuation - and an equally astonishing deficit - which some experts say may be the largest in startup history.

The market cap is based on the assumption that Uber can drive all competitors out of business and dominate its 'industry' (however that might be defined) through deft use of technology, innovation and legal challenges to the existing order.

But as the following article suggests, the fact that its entrepreneurial genius has yet to generate profits - and is unlikely to do so anytime soon - as well as the fact that plenty of competitors are still hanging around may mean that structural impediments to its model assure that it will never deliver on its financial promise. JL

Hubert Horan reports in Naked Capitalism:

Uber’s huge valuation was always predicated on global dominance. If Uber’s valuation and dominance were to be welfare enhancing, Uber’s efficiency and competitive advantages would be overwhelming, and there would need to be clear evidence of Uber’s ability to generate large profits and consumer welfare benefits out of these advantages. The question becomes why haven’t these “disruptive innovations” yet produced competitive cost advantages or profits?

Nov 30, 2016

Congress Passes Law Protecting Consumers' Right To Post Negative Online Reviews

If you can't think of anything nice to say...just get on the internet and say it. JL

Jon Brodkin reports in ars technica:

Congress passed a law protecting the right of US consumers to post negative online reviews without fear of retaliation from companies.The act voids penalties or fees on customers for posting online reviews as well as those that require customers to give up the intellectual property rights related to such reviews.

Why Apple Is Getting Into the Energy Business

Because the generation and distribution of electricity will increasingly become more efficiently managed by those with the best...technology. JL

Peter Fox-Penner reports in Harvard Business Review:

As the electric power industry shifts from a model where individual local utilities have a monopoly on electricity provision in a region to a much more dynamic market, prosumers will be able to make and sell a variety of new products and services like frequency regulation. In addition to selling power reductions, companies will be able to sell other currently-hidden services produced by their buildings, solar systems, or vehicle fleets back into the grid.

Globalization and the Empire of Knowledge

The returns to intellectual capital have been magnified by globalization. JL

Massimiliano Cannata interviews Roberto Panzarani for the Global Cybersecurity Center:

Silicon Valley has become rich like ancient Rome because it collects “tributes from all its provinces”. We have gone through various globalizations. From  nomadic to the discovery of the "new world", industrial and post-industrial. In previous "globalizations" the times of innovation diffusion were slow. Now the change invades our daily lives (with) increasingly aggressive competitors who come from distant worlds.

'Insurtech?' Insurers Are Wrestling With Digital Innovation

Disintermediation is finally attacking the most stable - and hidebound - of the financial services. JL

Business Insider reports:

The global insurance industry is worth nearly $5 trillion, and insurance companies are at risk of losing share to new entrants.because these legacy players have been even slower to modernize than their counterparts in other financial services industries. This has created an opportunity for insurtechs. These startups are leveraging new technology and a better understanding of consumer expectations to increase efficiencies in the industry.

As Gap Struggles To Rebound, It Focuses On Data Over Design

Good design is based on data, but getting the interplay between the two right is the crucial determinant of success. JL

Khadeeja Safdar reports in the Wall Street Journal:

In the 1990s merchants were guided by instinct, and planners adhered to the calendar with four seasonal collections. (But) Gap’s market value has shrunk to $10 billion, from $40 billion at its 2000 peak. (The company) is pushing executives to pay more attention to Google analytics and market-research data to monitor consumer tastes and to stagger product releases throughout the year and shorten the time for items to go from drafting to stores to take into account the most recent data trends. “There is now science and art, and they can come together,”

How Technology, Not Trade or Regulation, Killed Manufacturing Jobs

New technology has always eliminated jobs. The Luddites were not completely delusional. And stories about the demise of buggy whip manufacturers redound to this day. But during the era of industrialization tech replaced outmoded jobs with new ones faster than it has of late.

The data reveal that productivity has increased, in some industries significantly. But there has been a socio-economic cost. And that will continue, especially if one considers the map at the end of this post which shows that the primary employment category in a plurality of US states is truck driving - just as driverless trucks are entering the market. The question is what to do about it. JL

Urban Carmel reports in The Fat Pitch:

You might guess that manufacturing in the US is in a secular downtrend. It's not. Real output is at an all-time high. It has nearly doubled in the past 30 years.The downtrend in the importance of manufacturing employment is more than 70 years old. Manufacturing jobs have fallen with new technology and other means for increasing productivity. The number of employees needed to make the same output has more than halved in the past 30 years.

Nov 29, 2016

Hackers Attack San Francisco Public Transport System; Demand $73,000 Bitcoin Ransom

Service was restored and no ransom was paid. Despite their chronic lack of profitability and urge to eliminate transportation alternatives, neither Uber nor Lyft are suspects.... JL

Elizabeth Weise reports in USA Today:

The cybercrime disrupted Muni's internal computer system and email but did not affect the actual running of buses, light rail, historic street cars and the city's famed cable cars. It’s unlikely the transit system was specifically chosen as a target; ransomware is an opportunistic and financially motivated attack method. "We never considered paying the ransom. We have an IT team on staff who can fully restore all systems."

Big Data Proves Frustrating For Hedge Funds Hunting Actionable Signals

When no information may be better than bad information. JL

Saijel Kishan reports in Bloomberg:

A lot of data is useless and even the good stuff needs to be laboriously cleaned of erroneous bits and duplicates. Social media in particular requires a good scrub. Thousands of fake Twitter accounts post misinformation that can affect stock prices. “Humans have created a huge amount of low-grade data, but failed to realize the rule that quantity does not equal quality.”

Do Your Family Members Have A Right To Your Genetic Code?

They may be your genes, but the data about them is information. For which issues of ownership and the related legal, financial or scientific questions are another, far murkier, matter. JL

Emily Mullin reports in MIT Technology Review:

Patients must give their informed consent before undergoing any other genetic test. There are no laws that restrict what patients can do with their genetic information, or that require patients’ family to be involved in the consent. This raises questions about who owns an individual’s genetic code, since family members share many genetic traits and may harbor the same genetic abnormalities associated with certain diseases. “Your genes don’t really belong to you.”

Are Big Data, Predictive Analytics and Social Media Getting In the Way of Basic Marketing?

Follow the incentives and the tools that enable them, most of which tend to favor customer acquisition rather than customer retention. Convenience drives behavior for marketers as well as customers. JL

Kimberly Whitler comments in Forbes:

Marketers tend to become obsessed with customer acquisition—at the expense of driving loyalty. In CMO profiles on LinkedIn, 90% highlight customer acquisition, while few speak about customer retention. It’s happening (because): the solutions on the demand gen side outweigh those on the loyalty side, it’s easier to measure impact on the lead gen side, and it is easier to measure new revenue from new customers than revenue saved by reducing churn.

The Elusive, Increasingly Desperate, Quest To Measure Online Video Ad Views

Advertisers want to follow their customers online. But they are thwarted by their inability to get accurate measures of viewership - and that is stalling investment as financial execs question the utility of such marketing expenses. JL

Sapna Maheshwari reports in the New York Times:

Gauging the success of those advertisements has been a struggle, highlighted by Facebook’s recent admission that it had miscalculated video viewing metrics for years. Today’s metrics around online video say “if I get you 10 million two-second impressions, that’s 20 million seconds of viewing, and that is the same thing as one million 20-second impressions." But those two things are not the same thing at all.

What Does Cyber Monday Even Mean Anymore?

With year-round promotions, free shipping and any impulse purchase just a click away, no one is waiting to shop online till the Monday after Thanksgiving. JL

Sarah Halzack reports in the Chicago Tribune:

The idea of starting your online shopping on the Monday after Thanksgiving is a vestige of the pre-smartphone era. Social media mentions of Cyber Monday have fallen a staggering 82 percent compared with last year. 108.5 million people shopped online over the holiday weekend, compared with 103 million last year. A record $3.34 billion was spent online on Black Friday, up 21.6 percent from the previous year.

Nov 28, 2016

On the Perils of Machine Translation

Tracing the methodology of misunderstanding. JL

Arthur Goldhammer comments in Aeon:

To be intelligent is not merely to be capable of inferring logically from rules or statistically from regularities. Before that, one has to know which rules are applicable, an art requiring awareness of sensitivity to situation. Programmers are very clever, but they are not yet clever enough to anticipate the vast variety of contexts from which meaning emerges. Hence even the best algorithms will miss things

Cooked Data: IBM's Watson Wants Access To Your Kitchen

Bottom line: probably not optimal for picky eaters...JL

Alexandra Kleeman reports in The New Yorker:

I.B.M. exposed its algorithms to the entire recipe archive of Bon Appétit, as well as to recent research in “hedonic psychophysics”—“the psychology of what people find pleasant.” The algorithms also took note of which ingredients tended to be combined, and inferred the roles they seemed to play in a dish. The result is a browser-based Web app that allows users to generate recipes by selecting a permutation of ingredients and a style of cuisine.

The Reason Imagery and Metaphor Are Essential For Business Communications

It used to be said that a picture was worth a thousand words. And in a visually driven, text-denominated communications universe, imagery and metaphor are word pictures. JL

Jared Lindzon reports in Fast Company:

Metaphors are valuable tools in business, particularly when people need to communicate complex, dry ideas. By associating an unfamiliar idea with one that is commonplace, you can spark better understanding of complex ideas.Neuroscientists know there's a connection between emotions and decision-making. If you can't offer your audience an emotional reaction, chances are they won't feel spurred on to action—encouraged to make any real decisions.

Why Startups Are Embracing IPO Alternatives

A strategic question for startups and their investors is whether the spate of corporate acquisitions of startups in order to obtain specific technologies will begin to abate.

This may begin to occur as technological saturation and increasing facility with big data reduces the current competitive advantage enjoyed by privately funded companies and their innovations. JL

Maxwell Murphy reports in the Wall Street Journal:

This year there have been 96 IPOs, compared with 170 for all of 2015. Those offerings have raised $17.2 billion in 2016, below last year’s $30.3 billion. Market volatility, along with the paperwork and expense involved in going public - it can cost $1 million or more to do the regulatory work necessary to make an IPO - (are deterrents). (And) they fear having to answer to public shareholders each quarter—as opposed to a few private-equity executives.

What the Future of Mobility Means For the Future of Transportation

Mobile, real time data services will drive - literally and figuratively - consumer behavior. Which may diffuse the nature of the the financial opportunity as new market entrants proliferate while sharpening the threat for incumbent service providers

But the biggest change may be the convergence of disparate disciplines - technology, automaking, public transportation, data analysis, among others - into one. JL

Joris D'Inca and Carolin Metz comment in Forbes:

Customer relationships and data are at risk for capture by new-entrant mobility providers offering increasingly integrated travel planning (including) mobility services and information. The number of companies operating in the mobility space will increase and become more diverse, likely leading to more co-opetition. And as the transportation landscape becomes more diverse and competitive, the revenue pie will be split more ways.

Workplaces Challenged As They Try To Increase Productivity By Thinking Like Programmers

Organizations often attempt to remake themselves into something they are not and have never been, believing that the magic of whatever that style may be will somehow translate.

But our minds, processes - and institutions - all work in different ways. So to successfully engineer a transformation, agility and adaptability will optimally blend the best of the new with the best of that which already exists. JL

Quentin Hardy reports in the New York Times:

As humans, we crave being known for something. Agile work is the new organizational pattern, in a long tradition of companies styling themselves after the technology they consume. We’re trying to figure out the right ways to collaborate. If you’re constantly moving in and out of teams, what’s your identity? Brief periods of personal control become huge, like individual lighting or heat, or a quiet corner where you sit alone."We don’t talk about work/life balance. It’s work/life mix."

Nov 27, 2016

Randomness: Why the Future Is So Hard To Predict

Which is why, when you tell someone, in jest, just how random they are, you are far closer to the truth than you realize. JL

Shane Parrish reports in Farnam Street:

The course of history was determined by a small chance event which had no seeming importance when it happened. This is why predicting the future, even with immense computing power, is impossible. The effects of randomness, with small inputs (be)ing disproportionate and massive, makes prediction very difficult. That’s why we must appreciate the role of randomness. “Each of us human beings is the product of a long sequence of accidents, any of which could have turned out differently.”

Is Microsoft Purposely Degrading Internet Explorer To Bully Users Into Upgrading?

This user has personally experienced some bizarre outages of late. Just sayin'... JL

Wolf Richter reports in Wolf Street:

Desperate measures to solve a festering market-share debacle? IE has dropped to 4th place with a 10% share. A few years ago, before the arrival of Chrome, IE was the number one browser.

Did Men's Fear of Technology Shape the Presidential Election?

They looked into the future and didnt see a workplace in it for them.

The question is whether the result is worse news for those voters - or for the wealthy avatars of technology who believe the future is theirs. JL

Derek Thompson reports in The Atlantic:

Donald Trump's supporters are more likely to live in areas where economists expect technology to replace jobs in the near future. Counties with the most “routine” jobs—including manufacturing and clerical work, which are more susceptible to automation and offshoring— were far more likely to vote for Trump.

How Google Gives Computers 'Dreams' To Improve Learning

'Whatever gets you through the night...' JL

Jeremy Kahn reports in Bloomberg:

Researchers achieved a leap in the speed and performance of a machine learning system by, among other things, imbuing technology with attributes that function similar to how animals are thought to dream. (This) helped the system learn faster by asking it to maximize several different criteria at once, similar to the way newborn babies learn to control their environment to gain rewards -- like increased exposure to visual stimuli they find pleasurable or interesting.

What Has Happened To Chief Designer Jony Ive's Role At Apple?

When any kingdom is threatened, there is turmoil among and rumor about its elite. JL

Abdel Ibrahim comments in Daring Fireball:

People think Ive might be on his way out since his promotion to chief design officer. The skeptic’s take is this allows Ive to be less involved and that the chief design officer title is ceremonial. (But) Ive loves Apple, feels a responsibility to the legacy of his collaboration with Steve Jobs, and whatever aspirations he has for the remainder of his career, they’re only possible at Apple. If Ive (has) one step out the door, he’s one step out the door of being a designer. That doesn’t sound right

Why Research, the 'Engine of Innovation,' Is In Danger of Stalling

The private sector has used 'numericide' - death of innovation by numerical analysis - to take the risk out of risk capital. But they may be killing experimentation, creativity and future opportunities as well. JL

Christopher Mims reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Funding of R&D has shifted dramatically. Support from the government has waned, from nearly 2% of GDP during the 1960s to 0.6% today. Corporate R&D has grown to 2%. (But) not all R&D is created equal. For companies, spending is speculative with an uncertain, far distant, payoff. “As we became more sophisticated in quantifying things we became less and less willing to take risks. The spreadsheet is the weapon of mass destruction against creative power.”