A World of Megahertz: Russian Communications In Ukraine

Exploiting vulnerabilities wherever they are is the key to victory. JL 

Sam Cranny-Evans and Thomas Withington report in RUSI:

Radio communications across the Russian forces are poor, leading to makeshift solutions including the use of unencrypted high frequency (HF) radio for long-range communications and mobile phones to communicate. While Ukrainian forces may be numerically inferior on the battlefield, they have an opportunity to be superior in the electromagnetic spectrum. By locating sources of radio transmissions, Ukrainian forces can find, fix and engage the enemy kinetically and/or electronically. Ukrainian forces can exploit Russian networks for intelligence and for battlefield deception.

The Reason Ukraine Has More Tanks Than It Started With: It Captured Russia's

Addition by subtraction. 

Ukrainian troops are familiar with Russian tanks because they mostly use the same ones themselves.  

Jon King reports in The Express:

UKRAINE could have more tanks than before the war began after capturing more than 100 from Russian troops. While 74 of Ukraine's tanks have either been destroyed or seized by Russia, it has captured at least 117, according to open source intelligence analysts. Reports vary, but Russia is believed to have lost between 274 and 561 battle tanks. There aren’t many captured Russian tanks Ukraine can’t use in some capacity.

A New App Gauges Level of Covid Exposure Risk

Individual demand for information is rising. JL 

Kathy Pretz reports in IEEE Spectrum:

A cloud-based smatphone app uses publicly available databases to tell when banks, grocery stores, parks, and pharmacies are less crowded. A number of computer-based  epidemiological models could predict the spread of COVID-19. Although those models have been good for health departments, “they do not provide individuals—on a moment’s notice—[information on] how to avoid getting infected.The app uses Google Maps popular times option, which shows how busy a place tends to be at specific times. The data is combined with information about COVID-19 infection rates, vaccinations reported, and surveys about the willingness of people to wear a face covering, all sorted by ZIP code.

Russia Is Facing A Tech Worker Exodus

Tens of thousands - possibly hundreds of thousands - of Russians appalled by the invasion of Ukraine and upset at the loss of global interconnectedness they had come to take for granted as an essential part of their life have left the country. 

Many of them are tech workers with skills essential to the digital economy and their loss will have a significant impact on Russia's economic prospects. JL

Gian Volpicelli reports in Wired, image Kyril Zykov, Moskva News Agency:

Between 50,000 and 70,000 tech workers have already fled Russia, and 70,000 to 100,000 more could leave in April. Many members of this self-exiled crowd are technology workers. Because of their interconnectedness with the global digital economy, they were quick to feel the pain from sanctions and the departure of Western technology companies, and they have an easier time making a living from their laptops regardless of location. "Mostly they are software engineers and data scientists. There are plenty of people from large Russian tech organizations."

60 Percent of Russian Missiles Fired Have Failed

A 60% failure rate is a big number in any human endeavor, but especially when you are trying to defeat a determined enemy.

Some failures are to be expected, but such a high level is probably due to poor production quality - and the corruption involved in every Russian industry as owners siphon off funds to enrich themselves. JL 

Peter Weber reports in The Week:

The Russians have launched in the first 28 days of their invasion. But Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles. "Such a high failure rate can include anything from launch failures to a missile failing to explode on impact. The disclosure could help explain why Russia has failed to achieve basic objectives since its invasion a month ago, such as neutralizing Ukraine's air force,

FBI Trolls Russia's US Embassy, Geotargeting Ads For Disgruntled Spies

It's probably a great time to entice some Russian embassy employees appalled by either the invasion or the way it's been handled to work against their government. 

And it's also a nice way to troll embassy staff already demoralized by the way things are going. JL 

Tim De Chant reports in ars technica:

In the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the FBI stepped up its recruiting efforts in the US, hoping to attract Russians who are dissatisfied or disillusioned with the war. People standing in close proximity to the Russian embassy in Washington, DC, can see the ads, which appear in Russian, on Facebook, Twitter, and Google. “It’s a brilliant recruiting strategy because there’s probably a lot of folks within the Russian government that are dissatisfied with Putin’s war.”

Putin, A WWII Buff, Didn't Realize How Much Warfare Has Changed

Putin is an adoring student of Russia's most glorious recent conflict, its victory over Germany in WWII. 

Stalingrad, the Siege of Leningrad, the world's most epic tank battle at Kursk and the taking of Berlin are all part of the Russian iconography. But weaponry and warfare have changed, rendering tactics and strategy that worked then - albeit at horrific human cost - largely out of date now, as his soldiers and officers are discovering, at the cost of their lives. JL 

Antony Beevor reports in The Atlantic:

The Russian president’s distorted obsession with history, especially the “Great Patriotic War” against Germany, has skewed his military approach. Tanks were a great symbol of strength during the World War II. That Putin still sees them that way defies belief. The vehicles have proved profoundly vulnerable to drones and anti-tank weapons in recent conflicts. While Ukrainian defenders are destroying Cold War–era Russian tanks, a Stalinist determination to right the Russian military is backed by the execution of deserters and failing officers.

Is Today's Russian Defense Ministry Statement Its Version of "Mission Accomplished?"

A generation ago, this was ironically called the Egyptian military strategy, after that army's repeated losses to Israel: declare victory, hold a parade and go home. For the US in Iraq, it was called "Mission Accomplished."

It is not yet clear whether the Russian Ministry of Defense's announcement this morning is the first phase of pretending to be victorious - or a diabolically clever bit of disinformation to lure Ukraine into a trap. But coming only days after reports that the Russian army in Ukraine had a mere three days worth of supplies left, it signals  recognition of failure. JL  

Josh Marshall reports in Talking Points Memo:

The Russian Ministry of Defense just announced that “first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus” on “liberating” the Donbass region in Ukraine’s east. It’s hard to know precisely what this means. It could mean admitting the military operation in Ukraine has failed and they are now focusing on cleaving off a large chunk of territory in the east. One possibility is that this is the attempt to declare victory and go home, recognizing the reality, without absorbing the sting of military defeat. It’s possible the Russian Army might focus on consolidating territory in the east but hold territory in other areas as bargaining chips for an eventual political settlement.

One Month Into the War, Ukraine Is Changed, Adapting, United, Defiant

Rising to the occasion, beyond anyone's expectations, except, perhaps, their own. JL 

Isabelle Khurshudyan and colleagues report in the Washington Post, image Vadim Ghurda, AP:

A month of war with Russia has forced every fourth Ukrainian out of their home. It has shown that Moscow’s forces fire indiscriminately on civilians in their apartments, businesses, hospitals and schools. It has exposed weaknesses in Vladimir Putin’s military, which seems stunned and disoriented by the month-long fight. And it has focused the world’s attention on the unexpected ferocity and power of ordinary people uniting to defend their homes and nation.

What Intercepted Russian Army Radio Chatter Reveals About Their Weakness

Russian troops' inability to use secure communications has forced them to employ converted civilian radios, like this Chinese-made model. 

The result is that many of their transmissions can be intercepted. And what they reveal is an army beset by failures of coordination, supply and leadership. JL 

Rebecca Cohen reports in Insider, image Defence blog:

Intercepted radio transmissions reveal Russians, under fire, out of fuel and no air support, ordering troops to target residential areas. New York Times' audio-visual investigators teamed up with ham radio operators and open source groups to obtain the radio transmissions. It's unclear why Russian troops are using unsecured radio networks to communicate, but it has become normal during Russia's invasion. The recordings reveal an army struggling with logistical problems and communication failures. "You fucking forgot about the fucking air support! You forgot! Over!"

How Data Reveal Why Russia's Economy Is Failing To Reduce Its Import Reliance

90% of Russian companies use western software. 81% say they cannot find domestic versions of imported products. And 75% of consumer goods are imported. Putin's rhetoric to the contrary, data reveal that Russia is far more dependent on imports from western countries than may be realized. 

It is, in global terms, a relatively small economy which is incapable of replacing imported goods - especially sophisticated items like technology, highly engineered components and pharmaceuticals. JL

Georgi Kantchev and Alexander Osipovich report in the Wall Street Journal:

Russia’s continued dependence on imports means a painful economic readjustment. In 2020, imports accounted for 75% of sales of nonfood consumer goods in the Russia. “A small economy like Russia’s isn’t able to produce complex and high-tech goods by itself." Russia’s dependence on imports actually worsened over the years. In 2021, 81% of manufacturers said they couldn’t find Russian versions of imported products they needed. 90% of Russian banks and companies use Western software. Anything high-tech is still reliant on Western technology, Western software, Western know-how. "The Russian economy will be much more primitive now.”

The Three Russian Cyberattack Types the West Most Fears

Attacks on infrastructure, especially electrical power, ransomware and malware are the three types of cyberattack that most worry western authorities. 

They each have downsides for the attacker - especially infrastructure because the west is believed to be capable of taking down Russia's systems - but the element of surprise and the near-term disruption would definitely be both economically and psychologically advantageous for Putin. JL

Joe Tidy reports in the BBC image Will Dickey, Florida Times Union:

BlackEnergy targeted physical infrastructure attack; NotPetya uncontrollable destructive software was hidden in an update of popular accounting software used in Ukraine, but spread worldwide destroying the computer systems of thousands of companies and causing approximately $10bn (£7.5bn) of damage; Cybercriminal ransomware - "The benefit of instructing cyber-criminals to carry out ransomware attacks is the general chaos they can cause. In large enough numbers they can cause serious economic damage."

Why Do People Get Brand Tattoos?

Almost all do so because of a positive association with the brand that also signals something about their values. We are not qualified to report what a back tattoo of a Rolex watch or a VW tattoo signifies. 

While the vast majority get these tattoos because they want to, there is a small but growing trend to sell 'skinvertising.' JL 

Robert Klara reports in Advertising Week, image Time + Tide:  

The most tattooed brands in the world (are) Disney and Nintendo. In third place, Harley-Davidson, 4th and 5th are Lego and Nike. Rounding out the top 10 are: Vans, Dior, Playstation, Volkswagen and Armani. The deeper reasons are social and psychological. Tattoos identify the wearer as belonging to a larger group of fans. “Brand tattoos remind customers of personal values. The tattoo is a permanent badge with special meaning. It creates a powerful recall cue of the memories, experiences, emotions and other positive associations they have with the brand.”

Is the Metaverse Even Technologically Feasible?

Theoretically, depending on how it's defined - as well as how much money and time you have.

By which experts tend to mean tens of billions and decades. JL 

Matthew Smith reports in IEEE Spectrum:

Not all problems can be overcome with improvements to existing technology. The metaverse may find itself bound by technical barriers that aren’t easily scaled by piling dollars against them.The problems of perceptional inconsistency and network infrastructure may be solvable but, even so, they'll require many years of work and huge sums of money. Meta’s Reality Labs lost over US $20 billion in the past three years.

NATO Doubles Troop Strength In Eastern Europe As Warning To Putin

Just in case...JL 

Matina Stevis-Gridneff and colleagues report in the New York Times, image ACE News:

NATO announced a doubling of its military presence near Ukraine and said the alliance would help the country prepare for possible chemical, biological and even nuclear threats from the Russian invaders. Additional combat-ready, battalion-size units, which typically have several hundred troops each, were deploying in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. The alliance has so far proved remarkably unified in trying to turn Russia into a pariah and help Ukraine’s outgunned defense forces to frustrate the Russian military’s ground advances

How Ukraine and Russia Weaponize Face Recognition - But In Very Different Ways

Ukraine is using Clearview AI to identify the thousands of unclaimed dead Russian soldiers whose existence Moscow frequently denies. It is also using the technology to expose Russian saboteurs caught at Ukrainian checkpoints. 

Russia is using facial recognition primarily to identify anti-war protesters and Russian police are reportedly telling those arrested they were caught by facial rec in order to discourage others. JL 

Laura Italiano and Haven Orecchio-Egresitz report in Insider:

Ukraine began tapping into the trove of faces kept by the controversial facial recognition platform Clearview AI (for use) at Ukraine's checkpoints and morgues, where surveillance cameras are scanning for Russian operatives and identifying the thousands left dead. But in Russia, facial recognition technology is put to silencing dissent. "They have data now on tens of thousands of protesters," in violation of the European Convention on Human Rights and Russia's own privacy and assembly laws. Police openly brag to detainees that they were caught using facial recognition.

Russia May Only Have Three Days' Military Supplies Left In Ukraine

It's gotten so bad that frightened Russian troops are attempting to 'armor' their trucks with wooden logs. 

Shortages of food, fuel and ammunition are compounded by reports that troops are suffering frostbite due to inadequate clothing. The question is whether Russia can fix its logistics problems before Ukrainian forces inflict irrecoverable damage. JL 

Arpan Rai reports in The Independent, image The Drive:

Supplies for Russian soldiers are so low they have only three days’ worth of food, ammunition and fuel left, the Ukrainian general staff have claimed. Fuel is replenished by tank trucks. "The occupiers were unable to organize a pipeline to meet the needs of the grouping of troops.” There were continuing morale issues among Russian troops, with food and fuel shortages, as well as frostbite due to a lack of adequate clothing. The claims of major shortages were described as “plausible” by western officials

How Western News Is Getting Through Putin's Digital Curtain

It's not too hard for the technologically proficient, but even the less sophisticated can find a way using Telegram, which has not yet been banned. 

And western news media have been broadcasting Russian language content, despite the firewalls. JL 

Yasmeen Serhan reports in The Atlantic, image The Atlantic Council:

Russians are finding technical workarounds to sidestep the government’s bans, some of which have been encouraged by international news outlets. Telegram, the as-yet-unbanned social-media-and-messaging app that claims more than 1 billion downloads (Russia is its second-biggest market). The Psiphon app, an open-source, virtual private-network service helps users conceal their location. (And) since the Russian invasion began, demand for VPNs in the country has skyrocketed by more than 2,500%.

Israel Has Let Dictatorships Have Pegasus Spyware - But Not Ukraine

Israel's behavior suggests it is more friendly with dictatorships than democracies and more afraid of Russia than it is of the US. JL 

Craig Timberg and colleagues report in the Washington Post:

Pegasus can turn almost any smartphone into a spying device. A Ukrainian effort to acquire Pegasus was blocked by Israel out of fear that would upset Russia. The system can access files, contacts, passwords, photos and videos, track the current and historic locations of targets, remotely activate cameras or microphones to listen directly to conversations, make video or eavesdrop on calls. After Pegasus was used to target the telephones of American diplomats, the Biden administration blacklisted it. Israel also refused to sell its Iron Dome missile defense system, developed with U.S. financial support, to Ukraine.

Why 80 Percent of Employees Say They Will Stay At Firms Offering Data Training

Employers surveyed belief staff with good data skills make better, faster decisions while being more productive and innovative. Which is another way of saying that in this economy, such employees are likely to be better compensated and more quickly promoted. 

And that is why employees, who recognize the growing importance of data to virtually all jobs, are more willing to stay at companies that provide such training. JL

Venture Beat reports, image Information Age:

Data skills are increasingly vital, yet training lags. Only 39% of organizations make data training available to all employees. 82% of decision-makers surveyed expect basic data literacy from employees, including product, IT, HR and operations. And expectations are only increasing. By 2025, 70% of employees are expected to use data heavily in their job, up from 40% in 2018. 80% of employees surveyed say they’re more likely to stay at a company that sufficiently trains them with the data skills they need.

Russia's Largest Tank Manufacturer Has Run Out Of Parts, Stopped Production

If production cannot be resumed, this would hinder and perhaps curtail Russia's offensive capabilities. 

How soon the Russian army will run out of artillery ordnance and cruise missiles may determine the future of Putin's attack plans. JL 

Christiaan Hetzner reports in Fortune:

Russia's primary armored vehicle manufacturer appears to have run out of parts to make and repair tanks. Citing “available information,” state-owned company Uralvagonzavod, which builds tanks such as the T-72B3, has had to temporarily cease production.  In addition, one of the largest tank manufacturers in the world with reportedly 30,000 employees last year, the Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant has also run out of foreign-made parts. Sanctions imposed on Russia to cripple its economy may be starting to hurt its military capabilities.

"Back In the USSR:" Russian Shoppers Suffer Long Lines Again As Sanctions Bite

Back to the future, as sanctions, a collapsing ruble and shortages of essential foods and goods reawaken memories of the bad old days. 

The looming question is whether the long-suffering populace, which had become accustomed in recent years to a middle class lifestyle, will endure privation. JL 

Andrew Roth reports in The Guardian, image Newsweek:

A run on Russian staples have revived fears that the Kremlin’s invasion in Ukraine will lead back to the shortages or endless queues of the Soviet Union. Shortages are a first taste of what is going to be a hard year for Russia, marked by a massive economic contraction, high inflation and cutoff from the globalised economy. As Russia’s economy contracts, inflation is expected to skyrocket as high as 20% this year. “I think we are going back to a USSR. I’m not seeing it as a temporary shock unless there is a change in government.”

How Ukraine's Tech Startups Are Pivoting To Aid the War Effort

Shipping code, providing customer support - and targeting Russian tanks...

For tech entrepreneurs with businesses in Ukraine, whether headquartered there or with substantial workforces in a country known for its programming skills, running a company is now often a second job, as getting employees to safety and aiding Ukraine's defense become existential priorities. Many have relocated offices and equipment to elsewhere in Europe, Israel and the US, while some, who have had to close their businesses, are overwhelmed with job offers from Silicon Valley, now deferred as they fight for their homeland. JL 

Heather Somerville reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Startups are using their tech savvy, dispersed workforces and agility as smaller, privately held companies to help mitigate the business trauma and human catastrophe of war. For the CEOs running these startups, the tasks of shipping code and ramping up sales have been replaced with mapping escape routes and paying colleagues fighting with the Ukrainian army. Leaders responsible for Ukrainian workforces have become evacuation coordinators, military strategists, providers of humanitarian aid and financiers of the army. Now, from Poland, Germany, Israel, Silicon Valley and elsewhere, these startup leaders continue to run their businesses while adding another task—helping to defend Ukraine.

How Russian Tank 'Cope Cages' Are Evidence of Growing Futility

Analysts have begun to notice Russian tanks in Ukraine with strange steel slat contraptions welded to their turret tops. 

Apparently added in the vain hope that they would repel Javelin missiles and other anti-tank munitions, some believe they're being used as psychological support for increasingly demoralized Russian soldiers. They have been dubbed 'Cope Cages' since their intent is to help the Russian tankers cope. But they aren't working. JL 

Matthew Gault reports in Motherboard, image Laststandonzombieisland:

The Russian military has thousands of tanks, and all of them are vulnerable to Ukranians wielding Javelins and other anti-armor weapons. Russia has tried to get ahead of the problem by welding improvised slats to the top of some of its tanks. Dubbed “cope cages” by outside observers, the strange additions to Russian tanks don’t appear to be helping stop the penetrating power of Ukrainian munitions. OSINT accounts shared photos of cope-caged tanks smoldering on the field. Analysts think Russia has lost around 800 tanks.

The Best Metric For Measuring Misinformation Is Harm

And there is now plenty of data to analyze. JL 

Tom Siegel reports in Fortune, image American Psychological Association:

Instead of attempting to identify whether something is true or not, which inevitably leads to debate, the real measure is the severity of harm it can cause to a person times the number of people affected. Velocity of information dispersion means enforcement systems can't intervene on time. Technology can help us understand how we collectively view a claim by analyzing what people on the internet think about it, what authoritative sources say about it, and the history of how it spread. This understanding, with an emphasis on the harm caused, can be a powerful way forward to clarify the murky misinformation landscape

How Russia's Invasion Connected Ukraine To Europe's Energy Grid

A test connecting Ukraine to the European grid just before the Russian invasion, initially made the Ukrainian system more vulnerable because it gave Russia free rein to attack Ukrainian power without causing blackouts in Russia. 

But the connection to the European system has enabled Ukraine to maintain power - an unheralded achievement - and will provide yet another strong connection to Europe and away from Russia once the conflict ends. JL

Peter Fairley reports in IEEE Spectrum:

Just a few hours before Russian troops and missiles surged last month, Ukraine’s grid operator opened a series of high-voltage breakers, disconnecting the nation’s grid from those of Belarus, Russia, and the rest of the power zone controlled from Moscow. It was supposed to be a 72-hour test. Ukraine’s grid held, even as Russia damaged substations, lines, and generators. If damage to power equipment creates an electrical shock in Ukraine, the rest of the European network—which generates over 20 times more power than Ukraine—should hold power steady.

As Offices Reopen, Employees Increasingly Question What It Is For

Two years of flexible work arrangements which, by and large, have been considered surprisingly successful, have sparked strategic corporate discussions about the value of investing in expensive real estate, productivity trends - and the entire point of office culture. 

While the outcomes are not yet certain - and there could well be a return to the office in a few years as economic conditions change - this evolution in thinking is presaging some predictions about the degree to which offices will determine the future of work. JL

Emma Goldberg reports in the New York Times:

The office was physically designed to fit the needs of a very specific type of worker. And some of the companies now attempting to call their staff back are facing a wave of resistance from workers emboldened to question the way things always were. “What have companies done to upskill senior leaders and managers so they’re going back into the office with empathy? Not one single person who re-enters the office in the next three months is the same as the one who left.”

What Putin's Pivot To "Plan B" May Mean

Putin's 'Plan B' is now about leverage for end-game negotiation, with the Russian dictator using terror tactics to secure whatever advantage he can wring from Ukraine and its western allies so as to claim some sort of victory, as well as forestall any internal attempt to unseat him. JL 

Michael Gordon and Alex Leary report in the Wall Street Journal, image Maksim Levin, Reuters:

After Russian forces failed to secure a quick victory over Ukraine, U.S. officials see the Kremlin shifting to a new strategy to secure key territorial objectives while seeking leverage to compel the Ukrainian government to accept neutrality between Russia and the West. Having seized both Crimea and the Donbas in 2014, Russia seeks to secure a “land bridge” between Russia and Crimea, and to expand Russian control of the Donbas. Should Mr. Putin’s demands be rebuffed, he is expected to try to hold the ground his forces have taken, and fight on. The shifting strategy means weeks—possibly months—of attacks from a weakened Russian military content to fire missiles and artillery from a distance.

Why Can't the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

Western leaders may well have been briefed by their military advisors that Russia is losing, at least by every contemporary measure of battlefield performance. But they are understandably - and wisely - keeping that to themselves so as not to humiliate Putin further, hoping that economic sanctions and internal dissatisfaction will finish him before he does something even more horrifically rash. 

On another front, the western media commentariat has spent 20 years building up the myth of Russian invulnerability and are loathe to admit they may be wrong. There may also be some belief that Putin has a strategic game-changer up his sleeve (battlefield nukes, chemical and biological weapons, hordes of bloodthirsty Syrian mercenaries...) so no one wants to prematurely call the outcome. But the current perception is definitely that even if the Ukraine is not, exactly, winning, they sure aren't losing. JL

Eliot Cohen reports in The Atlantic:

The West’s biggest obstacle to accepting success is that we have become accustomed to think of our side as being stymied, ineffective, or incompetent (as well as) a tendency to emphasize technology. (But) Russian losses are between 7,000 and 14,000 dead, which implies 30,000 taken by wounds, capture, or disappearance. (That) represents 15% of the invading force, enough to render most units combat ineffective. Analysts and commentators have grudgingly declared the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been blocked, and that the war is stalemated. The more likely truth is that the Ukrainians are winning.

Is Putin's Invasion Failing Because Russian Intelligence Embezzled Billions Intended As Bribes For Ukrainians?

It's even  wilder than the headline suggests. The FSB embezzled every dime of the billions in bribe money intended for Ukraine, which they figured was a low risk crime because no one - not even Putin - would be crazy enough to invade Ukraine, the largest country in Europe, and the bribe money was in cash so there was no accounting. Meaning no one would miss the dough. 

But then Putin announced he WAS going to invade. And the military made clear it wouldn't do so unless the Ukrainian military had been bought off so it wouldn't fight, which the FSB had assured everyone had been taken care of. But since they hadn't been bought off, the FSB had a big problem. Which they attempted to solve by leaking the invasion news to the US (hence Biden's preternaturally superb intelligence on the invasion, including assassination attempts on Zelensky) hoping that would dissuade Putin. And the rest, as they say, is history. JL

Mary Frances Fitzgerald reports in The Times:

Sergey Beseda, head of the FSB 5th-Branch (Ukraine portfolio), has been arrested, along with his deputy, Anatoly Bolyukh for embezzlement from the state. The whole of the FSB 5th-Branch is under criminal investigation and many are also under arrest for embezzlement. For years Putin has been placing billions of dollars into the 5th-Branch budget for bribing Ukrainian military, secret service, internal security officers, and politicians. (But) Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh have been embezzling every dime of the bribe budget, billions of dollars. And everyone in the 5th-Branch was getting a piece of the action. It was the perfect crime as spy bribes are paid in cash and (they thought) not even Putin was crazy enough to invade Ukraine

Hey, It's 2022. Where Are All Those Drone Deliveries We Were Promised?

There are, reportedly, 2,000 or more drone deliveries being done every day, with 1.5 million estimated for 2022. 

They are occurring in places like Ireland, Australia, Israel and even India. But in the US and big European countries, 10 minute delivery by ebike makes drone delivery competitively superfluous. JL 

Cate Lawrence reports in The Next Web:

The rotor-driven drone can lift a small load (for example, the Amazon Prime Air) with a 16 to 24km (10 to 15 miles) flying range. However, if the weight is even more than 2.26kg (five pounds), the flying range is drastically reduced to 3.2 to 4.8km (two to three miles) — which cannot be a viable delivery system. Video-equipped drones raise privacy questions. It’s unclear how many companies record these flights, and what they do with the footage. Sound is another issue. They are unlikely to replace other last-mile delivery services, especially in urban areas where they’re likely to coexist with ebikes and delivery bots.

Russians Are Being Targeted By 'ProtestWare' And Geo-Located File Erasures

Hackers are stepping up their digital attacks on Russia by inserting 'protestware' in messages for Russian internet users. 

More dangerously, some code packages are being modified to include files that erase content in computers with Russian addresses. JL

Brian Krebs reports in Krebs On Security:

Researchers are tracking a number of open-source “protestware” projects on GitHub that have recently altered their code to display “Stand with Ukraine” messages for users, or basic facts about the carnage in Ukraine. The group also is tracking several code packages that were recently modified to erase files on computers that appear to be coming from Russian or Belarusian Internet addresses. The tracking effort is being crowdsourced via Telegram, but the output of the Russian research group is centralized in a Google Spreadsheet that is open to the public.

Given the Real Estate Market, Your Distracted Co-Worker Is Probably On Zillow

The difficulty of finding a house or apartment in this real estate market often means that employees have to leave Zoom meetings, customer-facing tasks or virtually any other work situation if they get a notice about a property matching their criteria as not doing so means they will likely lose it. JL 

Callum Borchers reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Over two years of the pandemic housing markets all over the country have gone bonkers while many workers have gone remote. In some cities, people are paying premiums for houses they haven’t seen in person. Prospective buyers sign up to be alerted by Zillow, Redfin or similar services whenever properties are listed. Those notices can come at any time—in the middle of a Zoom meeting, or while studying spreadsheets—and people on the receiving end of those emails understandably can’t wait until close of business to schedule a showing or make an offer, lest a rival bidder get there first.

Why Russia's Running Short of Trucks In Ukraine Is A Big Problem

Russia did not have a lot of trucks to begin with, was well known for not maintaining them properly and has now lost so many to Ukrainian attack - and mechanical breakdown - that they cannot deliver supplies to their troops.

The trucks are likely irreplaceable in the short term due to international sanctions on crucial parts. With the Russian Air Force afraid to fly for fear of being shot down and rail links disrupted, the shortage of trucks is becoming a strategic impediment to pursuing the invasion. JL 

Serina Sandhu reports in Inews, image Vadim Ghirda, AP :

Russia's military strategy to takeover Ukraine is stalling, with a key weakness likely being a lack of trucks to transport supplies to forces on the ground. “They had too few [trucks] to go in with and they already lost a huge number. Hypersonic missiles don’t matter if you don’t have complex systems in place to supply, to operate and to fight the real detail of war." As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth week, the Ukrainian army and sister services have destroyed 485 Russian trucks. “The Russian army does not have enough trucks to meet its logistic requirement more than 90 miles beyond supply dumps”.

How AI Is Changing the Way Leaders Measure and Manage

Leaders in successful organizations are employing AI not just for operational enhancements, but to more effectively manage by better aligning strategy with talent behavior. 

In analysis my colleagues and I did for the tech industry (Managing the IPO Transformation Process) such alignment, between strategy and employee attitudes, was a statistically significant causal driver of post-IPO performance. AI provides leaders with the ability to conduct predictive rather than historical analyses which enable optimization of desired outcomes. JL

David Kiron reports in MIT Sloan Management Review:

Data-driven companies employ predictive analytics such as machine learning, along with leadership acumen, to refine strategic measures. IBM created a machine learning algorithm that can assess which employees are preparing to leave the organization and recommend (how) to keep them. Developing analytically sourced and executive-determined measures aligns behaviors with strategy. Strategic measurement is built to support objectives determined by leadership. With predictive alignment, how you measure also reflects how you compete and align behaviors with strategic objectives. Predictive analytics enables the discovery of new ways to drive growth, in turn enabling new metrics and new behaviors

How Mathematical Models Predict Russia's Time In Ukraine Is Running Out

Math makes it seem simpler than it probably is, but the underlying dynamics suggest a relentlessly quantitative reality which is difficult to argue with, let alone overcome. JL 

Tim Andersen reports in Medium:

Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, recently stated Russia was running out of time to win in Ukraine and might have to make peace within 10 days (because in) a war of attrition, "they don’t have time, they don’t have the manpower and I don’t think they have the ammunition." Lanchester’s power laws describe a set of differential equations which a force will inflict over time given a certain rate. With the influx of weapons from NATO, the Ukrainian advantage is increasing while the Russian advantage is declining. As long as NATO continues to supply Ukraine, and they keep their resolve, Russia will eventually fail by pure attrition.

Russia's Killer 'Suicide' Drone Use In Ukraine Sparks Fear of AI Warfare

AI weapons are programmed to decide who to kill. The Russian Army has reportedly used one of its AI models in Ukraine. The US 'Switchblade' drone, being supplied to Ukraine, is also 'suicidal' as it crashes into its target, but it requires a human to make the final decision. 

The issue is, ultimately, about how much more impersonal humans can make warfare. JL

Will Knight reports in Wired:

A RUSSIAN “SUICIDE drone” boasts the ability to identify targets using artificial intelligence.With a wingspan of 1.2 meters, the sleek white drone resembles a small pilotless fighter jet. It is fired from a portable launch, can travel up to 130 kilometers per hour for 30 minutes, and deliberately crashes into a target, detonating a 3-kilo explosive. Advances in AI have made it easier to incorporate autonomy into weapons and have raised the prospect that more capable systems could eventually decide for themselves who to kill.

8 Of 10 Top Ten US Murder Rates Are In States That Voted For Trump

Murder rates are 40% higher in states that voted for Donald Trump than those that voted for Joe Biden. 

And contrary to popular conservative themes, most of the states with the highest murder rates are more rural than urban. JL 

Kylie Murdock and Jim Kessler report in Third Way:

Murder rates are 40% higher in the 25 states Donald Trump won in the last presidential election compared to those that voted for Joe Biden. Murder rates in many of these red states dwarf those in blue states like New York, California, and Massachusetts. And finally, many of the states with the worst murder rates—like Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, and Arkansas—are ones that few would describe as urban. Only 2 of America’s top 100 cities in population are located in these high murder rate states. And not a single one of the top 10 murder states registers in the top 15 for population density.

Clinical Trial Reveals Ivermectin Didn't Reduce Covid Hospitalizations

Those motivated more by socio-political beliefs or personal gain rather than science will undoubtedly continue to tout ivermectin's value, but clinical analysis confirms it is medically useless against Covid. JL 

Sarah Toy reports in the Wall Street Journal: 

The latest trial, of Covid-19 patients at risk of severe disease, is the largest to show that those who received ivermectin as a treatment didn’t fare better than those who received a placebo. Ivermectin has received a lot of attention as a potential treatment for Covid-19 including from celebrities. Most evidence has shown it to be ineffective against Covid-19 or has relied on data of poor quality. Public-health authorities and researchers have for months said the drug hasn’t shown any benefit in treating the disease. “There was no indication that ivermectin is clinically useful.”

Inside the Secret Transfer of Military Equipment To Ukraine

While US and European militaries supply Javelins, Stingers and other ordnance, informal supply chains are providing medical equipment, boots, fleece jackets and converted SUVs that Ukrainian troops use to outmaneuver Russian armor. JL 

Steve Hendrix reports in the Washington Post:

While governments negotiate over fighter jets and high-end weapon systems, soldiers on the ground struggle to fill more basic needs. Ukraine’s forces rely increasingly on volunteer, pop-up supply chains for body armor, medical supplies, pickup trucks and SUVs they covet as fighting vehicles (plus) 800 pairs of new steel-toed boots and 1,000 fleece jackets still in the wrapper, all donated by a hunting goods retailer, 14 pallets of IV saline solutions, 13,000 trauma tourniquets and 200 satellite phones. Pathfinder, Freelander and Pajero SUVs outmaneuver Russian armored vehicles, popping out from forests or side streets to hit them with rocket-propelled grenades and dashing away.

In the 4th Week of Russia's Ukraine Invasion, Its Goals Remain Elusive

Putin's war of attrition - using artillery and missiles to destroy and demoralize Ukrainian opposition - is having more success than did his initial armored thrusts, hampered as they were by outdated top-down military doctrine, lack of training and procurement corruption that hobbled logistics, among other factors. 

But even if he ultimately bombs Ukraine to rubble, his hope of political gains has been upended by a united and revitalized NATO, global ostracism, economic isolation and the largest emigration of Russian skill and talent since 1917. JL 

Zach Beauchamp reports in Vox:

Ukraine’s battle is for time, an extent to which they can [degrade] Russian forces in order to steadily lead Russia to revise down their war aims. And we’ve already seen a change in Russian war aims over the course of the conflict. Low-morale armies can win wars, though they do so in brutal fashion, including mass slaughter of civilians, which appears to be a significant part of Putin’s strategy. If Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa are put under siege - starved and under constant bombardment - the Russians will have more negotiating leverage. But even if Russia performs better on the battlefield, “a Ukraine that becomes entirely subservient to Russia,” is looking out of reach.