Russian advances slowed this week from their already snail-like pace. We are now a week from July and the Russians have hardly advanced towards Pokrovsk (pronounced doomed last August) and the Ukrainians are still fighting in Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, etc. In the Sumy front, Russian advances are slowing. There remains no sign that the Russians can achieve anything more than small, bloody advances with no ability to create/exploit a breakthrough. Missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians are now as important to the Kremlin as battlefield efforts. What they cannot do on the battlefield (defeat the Ukrainian military) they have to try and do in other ways.Russian advances if anything slowed this week from their already snail-like pace. We are now a week from July and the Russians have hardly advanced towards Pokrovsk (which was pronounced doomed last August) and the Ukrainians are still fighting in parts of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, etc. Even in the Sumy front, Russian advances were slowing. Here is the map last Saturday.
And here is the map right now.
In a week the line has not moved much at all.
There remains no sign that the Russians can do anything more than what we have seen—these small, bloody advances with no ability to create/exploit a breakthrough.
Indeed, the lack of progress even calls into question what is the real center of gravity of the Russian offensive. It seems that the attacks on Ukrainian morale and civilian willingness to continue the war are at least as important as these battlefield efforts—and we can expect Russia to try and keep hammering away at Ukrainian civilian life over the coming months. What they cannot do on the battlefield (defeat the Ukrainian military) they will have to try and do in other ways.
Jun 23, 2025
Stalled Summer Attacks Reveal Russia Now Incapable of Defeating Ukrainian Military
The Kremlin's ostensibly fearsome summer offensive has slowed to a crawl across almost the entire front line. Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Zaporizhzia, Sumy, Kursk, et al and etc? Still in Ukrainian hands. Russian troop deaths - still over 1,000 a day.
Which reveals a truth that informed observers have been stating since last fall: Russia is no longer capable of beating Ukraine on the battlefield. Period. JL
Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:
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