The Reason Russia's Prospects In Ukraine Are Getting Worse

Russia's rate of advance has slowed to such a degree that military experts now say the Kremlin's forces have no chance of achieving even their reduced and delayed objectives, let alone winning on the battlefield.

Massive casualties combined with declining troop and weapons quality continue to reinforce this negative trend. Putin will continue to prosecute the war because his survival depends on it, but his prospects for a an acceptable outcome have diminished beyond a reasonable doubt. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

When viewing both the aerial and ground operations of the Russians in Ukraine, it remains clear to any military professional that Russia’s prospects are only getting worse. The quality of their ground forces are declining, the rate of advance is nowhere near that which would permit any breakthrough, and Ukrainian drone operations are getting more lethal.  The Russians are nowhere close to taking back the territory they lost to Ukraine's offensive in Kharkiv in September 2022. There is little prospect of them doing so. At Pokrovsk,  Ukrainian counter attacks have inflicted significant casualties on the Russians, and there are several pockets of surrounded Russian troops. The Russians have almost no prospect of winning this war, and very limited prospect of achieving their pre-war objectives

The situation on the ground in eastern Ukraine remains dynamic. In Kharkiv, the Russians are continuing their slow advance around Kupyansk and elsewhere. While they are slowly advancing, they are nowhere close to taking back the territory that they lost when Ukraine executed its surprise offensive in Kharkiv in September 2022. There is little prospect of them doing so.

Further south, the Russians continue their main effort of attempting to envelop and seize Pokrovsk. Again, they are making very slow progress. The Ukrainian counter attacks to the north of Pokrovsk have inflicted significant casualties on the Russians, and it appears that there are several pockets of surrounded Russian troops.

The current situation on Russia’s main effort on the ground. Source: Deepstatemap.live

When viewing both the aerial and ground operations of the Russians in Ukraine, it remains clear to any military professional that Russia’s prospects are only getting worse. The quality of their ground forces are declining, the rate of advance is nowhere near that which would permit any kind of breakthrough, and Ukrainian drone operations are getting more lethal.

The Russians have almost no prospect of winning this war, and very limited prospect of achieving even some of their pre-war objectives for the war. The Ukrainian strategy at present - destroy Russian oil export income, degrade munitions and drone production, employ a thick drone wall to impose disproportionate casualties on Russia and use diplomacy to shift Trump away from Putin - is bearing fruit.

Despite this, we should not expect any significant breakthrough with regards to peace talks anytime soon. Putin still appears to believe he has the upper hand in this war and is willing to continue throwing away lives and resources in pursuit of this goal. Until that changes, he will not negotiate for peace.