A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Sep 16, 2025

Ukraine's Drones, Artillery Destroy Russia Massed Tanks, Troops At Pokrovsk

The Russians appear poised to try one final massive tank attack at Pokrovsk. Not that any of the previous ones have worked given the proliferation of mines and drones, but appear to believe they have no alternative do since everything else they've tried has
failed also and the Kremlin wants action. 

But the Russians' local officers are hesitating, because the few feeler attacks they've tried in preparation have been annihilated. The question is how long they can wait before the Kremlin orders a few local commanders shot for not advancing into the inevitable maelstrom. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Russia has surged tens of thousands of reinforcements into Donetsk Oblast for a “last, final battle” for Pokrovsk. The Russians know they’re gambling some of their last major armor reserves. The first few tentative—and small-scale—armored assaults around Pokrovsk have not been encouraging for the Russians. Tanks are big, fat targets for drones. (In the sector's north), Ukrainian forces are closing around the remaining Russian forces in Dobropillia. As Ukrainians finish off pockets of Russian resistance, the Russians’ only hope is to surrender to the advancing Ukrainian army or be annihilated completely. The Russians are spooked spooked but delaying any armored push for a few weeks means the Russians attack as the leaves drop off the trees. 

Russia has surged tens of thousands of reinforcements into eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast for a “last, final battle” for Pokrovsk, a fortress city anchoring Ukrainian defenses 30 miles northwest of Donetsk City.

And, for the first time this year, the Russians are deploying with large numbers of tanks and other armored vehicles. Every indication is the final battle for Pokrovsk will be a tank battle—and a marked departure from the infantry-led assaults that have defined Russia’s 2025 offensives, so far.

Tanks can lend an assault firepower and mobility that infantry lack on their own. On the other hand, tanks are big, fat targets for the tiny explosive drones that are everywhere all the time over the 700-mile front line of Russia’s 43-month wider war on Ukraine.

The Russians know they’re about to gamble some of their last major armor reserves. The first few tentative—and small-scale—armored assaults around Pokrovsk since the reinforcements began arriving have not been particularly encouraging for the Russians.

Most of the initial tank attacks have involved just a few vehicles. Too few to muscle through the swarms of drones. “They don’t live long,” Ukrainian drone operator Kriegsforscher wrote about the Russian tanks.

The Russians are spooked—and their fear might be making them stupid. Eavesdropping on Russian communications, Ukrainian forces reportedly overheard staffers from the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade—one of nine marine and airborne regiments and brigades poised to attack Pokrovsk—deciding to hold back their armored vehicles for now.

Why? “Due to the enormous amount of [Ukrainian] UAVs in the air,” Kriegsforscher reported.

But delaying any armored push even for a few weeks means the Russians may attack as the fall season grows cooler—and the leaves drop off the trees. 

 

Ukrainian forces are closing the gap around the remaining Russian forces in their Dobropillia salient. As Ukrainians finish off pockets of Russian resistance, the Russians’ only hope is to surrender to the advancing Ukrainian army or be annihilated completely.

After conducting a successful penetration from the high ground in the west, Ukrainians are now launching their attacks from the north as well, well, completing the pincer around the Russian Dobropillia salient.

Ukrainians are using highly trained infantry squads to move in, engaging with Russian forces along the way.

Superior supply lines give Ukraine tactical edge

The main advantage of the Ukrainians here is their far superior ground lines of communication, enjoying a direct supply line from Kramatorsk and Ruzhivka, functioning as central operating hubs for Ukrainian forces in northern Donetsk.

Additionally, if we take a look at the topographic map, we can see that as the Ukrainian supply lines approach the front, they cross through several settlements in the valley between two hills.

This blocks signals for Russian drones, who mainly rely on FPV-type kamikaze drones, in stead of munitions dropped from drones.

Russian fiber optics also still only makes up approximately 20% of FPVs used by the Russians, so the valley Ukrainians move through is largely protected against most Russian strikes.

The buildings in the settlements and tree lines running along them offer additional concealment factors to Ukrainian infantry units passing through.

Heavy drones dominate battlefield from above

The last major Ukrainian advantage is their extensive utilization of heavy drones like the Heavy Vampire and Baba Yaga variants.

Because these drones drop heavy explosives or a series of smaller mortar rounds from a height, they are able to fly and hover above the valley, unaffected by the weaker signal strength that Russians suffer from lower to the ground.

Coordinated assault eliminates Russian positions

Geolocated footage shows how Ukrainian infantry squads move south through the settlements under the watchful eye and in constant communication with Mavic reconnaissance drones that detect any Russian presence.

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