Ukraine's Strikes On Russian Energy Assets Threaten Kremlin Ability To Finance War

Ukraine's ongoing strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, especially oil refineries, is creating gasoline shortages in Russia, cutting energy production significantly and is beginning to negatively affect the Kremlin's ability to finance its war against Ukraine as well as impacting its broader economy. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Russian petroleum company Transneft warned producers that Transneft may need to reduce output following a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on critical export ports and refineries. Transneft recently restricted oil firms’ ability to store oil in the Transneft pipeline system and warned producers that they may have to accept less oil if Transneft’s infrastructure sustains further damage. Ukrainian strikes could force Russia, which accounts for 9% of global oil production, to cut output. Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure continues to degrade Russia’s oil and gasoline markets, exacerbating chronic gasoline shortages in Russia and occupied Ukraine, and  affecting Russia’s long-term ability to finance its war in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s ongoing long-range strike campaign targeting critical Russian energy infrastructure continues to degrade Russia’s oil and gasoline markets, likely affecting Russia’s long-term ability to finance its war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 16 that Ukraine’s Special Operation Forces (SOF), alongside unspecified Ukrainian forces, conducted a drone strike against the Saratov Oil Refinery in Saratov Oblast, resulting in several explosions and a fire.[13] The Saratov refinery specializes in gasoline, diesel fuel, and oil fuel production and other oil products; it has a 4.8-million-ton production capacity; and supplies the Russian military. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are conducting a battle damage assessment.

Reuters reported on September 16 that three industry sources stated that Russian state-controlled petroleum company Transneft warned producers that Transneft may need to reduce output following a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on critical export ports and refineries.[14] Two industry sources told Reuters that Transneft recently restricted unspecified oil firms’ ability to store oil in the Transneft pipeline system and warned producers that they may have to accept less oil if Transneft’s infrastructure sustains further damage. The three sources informed Reuters that the Ukrainian strikes could force Russia, which accounts for nine percent of global oil production, to ultimately cut output. Reuters noted that Russia lacks significant capacity to stockpile oil, and Russian industry sources reported that Russia has already lost some oil exporting capacity following August 2025 Ukrainian drone strikes against the Ust-Luga oil terminal in Leningrad Oblast. Reuters reported on September 15 that two industry sources stated that Ukrainian forces damaged a unit at the Russian Surgutneftegaz’s Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery plant, one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, in Leningrad Oblast in a drone strike on September 14, forcing authorities to halt operations due to a subsequent fire.[15] Reuters reported that the unit accounts for nearly 40 percent of the plant’s total processing capacity of roughly 20 million tons per year. Sources told Reuters that the Ukrainian strike caused a fire and damaged a furnace and other unspecified equipment at the unit, which may take up to a month to repair. The sources noted that the plant aims to boost operations at other units to compensate for the damage, which will allow the plant to maintain 75 percent of its processing volumes. ISW continues to assess that Ukraine’s ongoing strike campaign targeting critical Russian energy infrastructure, particularly against oil refineries, is generating compounding effects on Russia’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine and exacerbating chronic gasoline shortages in Russia and occupied Ukraine