After 22 Months of Slaughter, Kupiansk Is Turning Into Another Russian Disaster

As if 22 months of fruitless assaults, profligate waste of Russian lives and no gains of significance weren't enough, there is growing concern among Russian forces that the general in charge of this senseless slaughter is a former Ukrainian army officer who joined the Russians when they first invaded in 2014 so may be, it is being whispered, a Ukrainian asset. 

While that is improbable - incompetence in senior Russian ranks being a far more common failing than treason - that the questions have even gotten traction speaks to the scale of the Russian losses - and failure - at Kupiansk. JL

RFU News reports:

Russia’s offensive against Kupiansk has turned into one of the great disasters of the war, a grinding campaign that devours entire brigades yielding no meaningful gains. Russia has spent 22 months, 2 combined-arms armies, and 13,000 soldiers in the Kupiansk front for nothing. Ukrainian artillery, aviation, and drones strike not only the frontlines but also logistics hubs behind them. That these fruitless, bloody efforts happen under the command of a general who was once a Ukrainian officer has raised suspicion in Russian ranks.  Casualties have skyrocketed so much since the start of the Kupiansk offensive, that some Russian analysts whisper about deliberate sabotage.

Russia’s offensive against Kupiansk has turned into one of the greatest disasters of the war, a grinding campaign that devours entire brigades yet yields no meaningful gains. The fact that these fruitless but bloody efforts happen under the command of a general who was once a Ukrainian officer has started raising dreadful suspicion in the Russian ranks.

Since being pushed back after the Ukrainian counteroffensive in late 2022, Russian armies have hurled themselves against Ukrainian defenses on several axes near Kupiansk but each of these has become a graveyard for Russian troops.

Near Synkivka, armored columns once tried to break through, but Ukrainian counterattacks and artillery fire forced most of them back. The forest belts remain littered with destroyed vehicles and dead Russians, while Ukrainian special forces raids keep Russian troops pinned down. To the south, near Pischane, the Russian attempt to split Ukrainian forces in two has turned into a killing zone through the infamous funnel. Here, Russians pour infantry into a narrow corridor, only to be slaughtered by Ukrainian artillery, FPV drones, and ambushes from three sides. Every attempt to widen the corridor has collapsed, leaving Russian units undersupplied, exhausted, and easy prey. North of Kupiansk, in the Russian bridgehead, Russian troops did seize Dvorichna after months of attritional assaults, but the prize turned out to be hollow: armored vehicles cannot cross the Oskil and support an advance, and Ukrainian firepower blocks any further breakout. The result is a static bridgehead where infantry is fed in and destroyed with no prospect of operational success despite some advances to the southwest with most Russian soldiers being cut down as they attempt to move into the town.

In all, Russia has spent 22 months, at least 2 combined-arms armies, and 13,000 soldiers in the Kupiansk direction for nothing but blood and ashes. Ukrainian artillery, aviation, and drones strike not only the frontlines but also logistics hubs behind them, with extended supply lines further choking Russia’s offensive. What was supposed to be a swift advance to threaten Kharkiv Oblast and eliminate the major Ukrainian bridgehead east of the Oskil River has turned into a drawn-out massacre, with casualties mounting each day. 

 

the false reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense have led to chaos erupting inside the town, with Russian commanders trying to create an illusion of victory. This stark discrepancy between the Russian maps and real frontlines has just backfired, with disastrously widespread cases of friendly fire when Russian soldiers attack their own comrades by mistake.

Prominent Russian military analysts are openly accusing their own Ministry of Defense of feeding lies to the public about what is happening in Kupiansk. They sound the alarm that official reports are nothing but anti-crisis science fiction, designed to divert attention while a battlefield in chaos bleeds out Russian forces. According to even Russian analysts, Kupiansk is not under Russian control, nor anywhere close to it.

However, the Russian Ministry of Defense insists the opposite, and in their latest report, they declared the town practically encircled, with the Ukrainian garrison trapped and almost destroyed. Russian officials boasted of conquering 5,667 fortified buildings, equating to two-thirds of Kupiansk, yet somehow claim Ukrainian forces lost only 1,800 men in the same period. Even more absurdly, a week ago they declared that 700 Ukrainians were trapped, but 250 of them already eliminated, leaving 450 Ukrainian soldiers still fighting across 3,000 buildings.

Subtracting the theoretical wounded, that would mean only 200 combat-ready Ukrainian soldiers holding over a third of a city, or 15 buildings per man. Russian analysts mock the arithmetic, and note that if this destruction rate were true, then Kupiansk should have been fully cleared in one day, but even after a week nothing changed.

Instead, Ukrainians remain entrenched, Russian losses continue to skyrocket, and the Ministry’s numbers collapse under scrutiny. Russian analysts underline that cheerful reports are optimistic fiction that masks a battle spiraling out of control, and lead to ambushes in areas that were officially already cleared, and assaults on supposedly captured strongholds going without fire or drone support.

The main Russian tactic is infiltration, initially often sneaking through gas pipelines to appear behind Ukrainian lines and take key bridges under control. But this advantage is gone, as Ukrainian forces have flooded the pipelines, bombed their entrances, sealing them with barbed wire and explosives.

Other Russian infiltrators creep in at night, hide in basements during the day, and hope not to be detected. Ukrainian drone operators and patrols hunt them down one by one, clearing houses and blocks and eliminating anyone found inside.

Reports from soldiers on the ground indicate that Russian infiltrators are often poorly trained, and lack food and water supplies, undermining their ability to conduct longer operations; in turn forcing them out of hiding to engage with Ukrainian fighters. The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russian commanders have ordered their soldiers in Kupiansk to execute any military aged man they encounter, and dress in civilian clothing to prevent detection by Ukrainian forces.

Unfortunately for them, this policy has completely backfired, as prominent Russian analysts report a concerningly high level of friendly fire incidents, with Russian soldiers killing other Russian soldiers, as they are dressed as civilians whom they were ordered to kill. This pattern is feeding paranoia and showcases a major collapse in ethics and discipline, as Russians cannot even be sure who is on their side.

Russian analysts admit Ukraine still has the upper hand, with enemy forces clinging only to the northern edges while the rest remains a deadly grey zone. Ukrainian commanders note that the casualty ratio has become 10 to one in favor of Ukrainians. Though strained, the defenders retain control of the town, with special forces operatives clearing basements and buildings, while mining Russian supply corridors in the rear. As Russian reinforcements continue to cross the Oskil River only on foot, they completely lack armored support and are easily destroyed.

Despite Russia's Ministry of Defense’s disinformation, even Russian analysts admit Kupiansk is far from captured and mock this sugarcoating. The reality is a brutal whack-a-mole, where Ukrainian defenders strike infiltrators in the air, on the ground, and even underground by depriving them of their route through the pipelines. The Russian Ministry’s triumphant numbers collapse under logic and basic calculation, while reality shows chaos, friendly fire, and a mounting Russian death toll. Kupiansk is far from a victory for Russia; in contrast, it is their graveyard, and this trend has continued for almost two full years.

This disaster has fueled a strange speculation: could the Russian commander of this offensive, Lieutenant General Serhiy Storozhenko, in fact be Ukraine’s best spy. Storozhenko was once a decorated Ukrainian officer, the commander of the 36th Marine Brigade. But during the Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014, he defected, and witnesses recall how he encouraged his men to surrender weapons and side with Russia, though he later claimed he had simply resigned.

A week after the phony referendum that followed up, he received a Russian passport and soon headed a new brigade for the enemy. By 2022, he commanded the 35th Army in the Kharkiv region, which suffered a humiliating collapse at Izyum.

Instead of punishment, he was promoted to Lieutenant General in 2023 after whitewashing several post-operation reports, and given command of the Russian 6th Army, which is now being bled to death outside Kupiansk. Under Storozhenko’s watch, Russian losses are truly catastrophic. His 6th Army has repeatedly been thrown into frontal assaults that Ukrainians describe as senseless meat attacks.

Casualties have skyrocketed so much since the start of the Kupiansk offensive, that some Russian analysts whisper about deliberate sabotage. His track record reinforces the suspicion: defeats at Izyum, stalemate in Kursk, and now a complete disaster at Kupiansk.

Ukrainians joke that if he is not their spy, he might as well still be connected to the Ukrainian military, because it is strange for a Russian commander to inflict this amount of damage on his own forces with such consistency.

Overall, a general once branded by Russians as a loyal defector to Russia is now presiding over a catastrophe so severe that Russian soldiers do not know whether to question his competence or allegiance.

The irony is bitter: a man who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 may have turned out to be the single most effective instrument of Ukraine’s defense, orchestrating Russian defeats from within their own chain of command. The Kupiansk offensive drags on, with Russia still trying to grind forward, but as casualties mount, speculation only grows that General Storozhenko is either one of the most incompetent commanders Russia has, or Ukraine’s most successful double agent.