Putin Fears A Coup As Summer Offensive Fails, Economy Begins To Buckle

Burning tanks and burning refineries bookend reports of growing Kremlin paranoia about the increased likelihood of a coup. 

Putin knows that he is vulnerable. The war has been a failure, as the Russian military has repeatedly proven incapable of subduing the more innovative and adaptive Ukrainians. He could keep discontent at bay as long as the bulk of the Russian population felt immune from the war's consequences and the elite believed he had US President Trump in his pocket. But increasingly devastating Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on refineries have led to shortages, rising gas prices and further pressure on the Russian economy as well as perception of weakened Russian power. And Trump's desire to establish his dominance as the world leader, resulting in, for the first time, significant sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, have led to a growing concern that the US leader's refusal tolerate Putin's obstinacy has weakened the Kremlin leader's standing among the oligarchs and senior apparatchik class. Putin realizes that he could survive a failed war with Trump's backing, but with that in question, the coup threat is growing. JL

Laura Zilincanova reports in the Daily Express:

 

Kremlinologists say there is a new sense of vulnerability inside Russia. There are many reasons why Putin might be worried. All sectors of the economy are struggling under the weight of high interest rates. In October, Russia’s Central Bank cut its key rate to16.5% The war is hitting the Russian population, as thick plumes of smoke rise above refineries nationwide after waves of Ukrainian drone attacks. The result has been a sharp spike in gasoline prices, growing shortages at the pump and rising popular unrest. Responding to stalled peace efforts, the US President announced new sanctions on two major Russian oil firms. Key buyers India and China have since scaled back purchases, threatening a vital source of funding for Putin's war machine.  "For the first time in three and a half years, Russia's really getting hurt. I think there's some panic."

Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has accused the exiled opposition leader Mikhail Khodorkovsky and 22 members of the Russian Anti-War Committee of plotting a coup. The Russian Anti-War Committee, founded in 2022, describes itself as a platform supporting "anti-war Russians" and promoting "solidarity, action, and mutual aid for people who oppose the war unleashed by the Kremlin."

 

According to the FSB, the committee is vying for "the violent seizure of power and overthrow of the constitutional order in the Russian Federation". Khodorkovsky has denied the allegations, but, as reported by The Telegraph, Kremlinologists say it clearly signals a new sense of vulnerability inside Russia. "It tells us that the Kremlin is being paranoid," said John Herbst, the senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and former US ambassador to Ukraine. "Putin is looking for enemies to try to bolster his regime." 

 

The war is also hitting the Russian population, as thick plumes of smoke rise above refineries nationwide after waves of Ukrainian drone attacks. The result has been a sharp spike in gasoline prices and growing shortages at the pump.

Lawford recalls that Putin already faced a coup attempt in June 2023, when Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin staged a failed mutiny. He later died in a plane crash.

But Khodorkovsky is not marching on Moscow, the author writes, returning to the FSB’s decision to open a case against the former Yukos chief. After his release from a Siberian prison, he moved to Europe and founded the Anti-War Committee. In a comment to The Telegraph, Khodorkovsky said the charges against him show that the Kremlin is “worried about the question of succession.” He argued that in the event of Putin’s death, there is no clear successor — and that “the international legitimacy of the opposition could become a decisive factor in the event of a sudden power transition.”

 

There are many reasons why Putin might be worried, The Telegraph reports. Businesses have been negatively impacted by high interest rates, government borrowing costs have soared, and the economy minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned in June that the country was on the "brink of recession".

Ukraine has meanwhile intensified drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, crippling the country's fuel supply.

On Monday, when Russia refused to agree to a ceasefire that froze the frontlines in Ukraine, the meeting between Donald Trump and Putin in Hungary got called off. Responding to the stalled peace efforts, the US President announced new sanctions on two major Russian oil firms. Key buyers India and China have since scaled back purchases, threatening a vital source of funding for Putin's war machine.

 

"For the first time in three and a half years, Russia's really getting hurt," Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia programme, tells The Telegraph. "I think there's some panic."

 

Earlier this month, a group of young street musicians from St. Petersburg were jailed for nearly two weeks after performing songs by exiled anti-war musicians on the streets of their hometown.

Singer Diana Loginova, drummer Alexander Orlov, and guitarist Vladislav Leontyev, who perform under the name Stoptime, went viral for their renditions of anti-Putin and anti-war songs, which are effectively prohibited under Russia's wartime totalitarianism.

The trio each received jail sentences of 12 to 13 days for allegedly organising an unauthorised public event, while Loginova also faces two further accusations of "discrediting" the Russian military.