Why GOP Public Opinion Has Shifted More For Ukraine, Against Russia

Two colliding forces have led to a resurgence of Republican/MAGA support for Ukraine and a concomitant decline in Republican support for Russia. 

Americans, generally, and Republicans specifically and historically have mistrusted and/or actively disliked Russia for over 100 years - since the Communist revolution. The 1989-1991 collapse of the Soviet Union was widely perceived as a US victory. Subsequently, Trump's embrace of Putin was never enthusiastically accepted in the US, but given the US president's fervent popularity among his base, he did not face outright opposition. That appears to have changed in August, after the Alaska summit. Not only were Americans generally uneasy about his fawning over Putin, but surprisingly, given Trump's feral understanding of his base, they appeared to perceive before he did that Putin was being disrespectful, even contemptuous of him. The White House now appears to have sussed that Alaska was not a 'win' in any sense, so their subsequent shift in favor of Ukraine appears to reflect both public disquiet and Trump's own realization of the relationship's reality. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

There has been a noticeable change in the public opinion of Republicans about the war in Ukraine—one that seems to have been catalyzed when Trump rolled out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin during the Alaska Summit in August. Signs started in March that the Republicans were become uncomfortable with Trump’s open love of Putin and hostility towards Ukraine, but in the last two months this transformation has picked up pace rapidly. The steep decline in Republican opposition to aiding Ukraine started in August 2025 as Americans in general were uneasy with Trump being so openly supportive of Russian war aims.

There has been a noticeable change in the public opinion of Republicans about the war in Ukraine—one that seems to have been catalyzed when Trump rolled out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin during the Alaska Summit in August. In a nutshell, Trump seems to be losing control over Republican opinion on the Russo-Ukraine war, in a way that is very different from his hold over the party when it comes to practically every other issue.

 

Now, one of the reasons I get frustrated when people talk about Trump being a buffoon, or stupid, etc., is that this leads to the type of drastic underestimation of his political abilities that helps him immensely. Trump is one of the most intuitive operators in US political history—a seminal figure who has the ability to motivate and understand his base in a way that has been shared by very few others (and I hate saying that). Not understanding his political skills, respecting them, and responding to them appropriately, is one of the reasons Democrats have failed repeatedly against him.

Trump and Putin Being Pals In Alaska—Did This Help Make Republicans More Supportive Of Ukraine?

Between 2022 and 2025 one of the greatest examples of Trump’s ability to manipulate and understand his base was how he turned a Republican Party that was instinctively sympathetic to Ukraine and hostile to Putin in February 2022, and flipped it almost entirely by the second half of 2024 and early 2025.

In a nutshell, when Putin launched his full scale invasion in February 2022, Republicans and Democrats shared very similar visions of the war and the need to support Ukraine, but within a year the Republicans had become much more sympathetic to Russia and skeptical of aiding Ukraine. This change can be seen in many polls, maybe the best is the Pew Research Centre, which took regular polls using the same methodology and asking the same questions) between 2022 and 2024.

What they found was striking—starting with the basic idea of whether Russia was a threat to the USA. In February 2022 there was no partisan difference whatsoever amongst Americans. However by 2024 Republicans were far less likely to see the Russians as a threat. Basically the Republican worry about Russia being a threat had fallen by 50% (and this was while Russia was regularly attacking Ukrainian civilians, etc).

When it came to US aid for Ukraine, the Partisan change by the Republicans was arguably more stark. In March 2022, once again there was strong bipartisan support for aiding Ukraine. However by April 2024, half of all Republicans believed that the US was providing too much aid to Ukraine. Note that date April 2024—it was after four months during which the Republicans in Congress had already cut off Ukraine from US aid—which caused a real crisis. At the same time, Democratic support for aiding Ukraine had remained very solid.

This deep partisan split with Republicans becoming more Ukraine-skeptical and more Russia-comfortable than Democrats, was seen in many other polls.

When Trump retook the White House, therefore, he had done something really remarkable (and I mean that in a terrible way). He had taken a party that was instinctively pro-Ukraine and anti-Russian and basically scrambled its brains. And believe, me, Republicans in Congress understood this, and tempered their support for Ukraine and criticism of Russia as well.

Now the interesting news. Having scrambled Republican brains, Trump has started to lose control of GOP opinion and Ukraine and Russia, particularly in the last two months. Signs started in March that the Republicans were become a little uncomfortable with Trump’s open love of Putin and hostility towards Ukraine, but in the last two months this transformation has picked up pace rapidly—and amazingly the partisan difference between the parties has gone down a great deal. Here is the Yougov/Economist Poll, which shows the change starkly—notice in particular the steep decline in Republican opposition to aiding Ukraine starting in August 2025.

Now only 17 percent of Republicans want to stop all military aid to Ukraine (btw, a deceptive question because the US has stopped all “aid”—it is only selling weapons through Europe).

Indeed when you see this question asked all the way back to 2022, you can see the enormous impact Trump had on the Republican party’s support for arming Ukraine, which peaked in January 2025 when a large majority of Republicans wanted to cut Ukraine off entirely.

And again, this one poll is no outlier. There are others showing that, particularly since August, partisan differences over Ukraine have lessened because Republicans have become more supportive of helping Ukraine than they were before.

This really is notable, as its hard to find any other issue in which Trump has lost so much control of Republican opinion (the party has remained rock solid behind him on most questions—such as the government shutdown, doge, etc). And it does seem that one of the real catalysts for the change is Republican unease with the openly pro-Putin orientation that Trump has taken. Certainly, the Pew poll in August 2025 found that Americans in general were uneasy with Trump being so openly supportive of Russian war aims.

Conclusion

Is this good news? Well, it is not bad news, that’s for sure. However people need to be very careful before thinking it will result in any concrete policy changes. The good news is that Trump clearly feels political pressure now not to be too openly pro-Russian and to speak more clearly about possibly supporting Ukraine. It might be that all the recent talk about aid to Ukraine is partly in response to changes in Republican opinion.

However, Trump also understands how to play his base extremely well, and he knows that it is unlikely to break with him over an issue of foreign affairs. At this point it has not led to actual policy changes—and it might not.

That being said, it is a good thing that partisan differences in the US are lessening and that the Americans of all parties are coming together in their desire to support Ukraine and restrain Russia. Its just a tragedy that they have had to do this in opposition to the maneuvering of the president of the USA himself.