Latest Kursk Attack Surprised Russian Military, Disrupts Summer Offensive

Ukraine's latest Kursk incursion has not only embarrassed Putin - again - but has seriously disrupted its plans for a summer offensive as Russian forces have been forced to interrupt their preparations for attacks in order to defend against Ukrainian troops assaulting Russian positions in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts. 

Ukraine has Russia surprised, confused and overstretched, causing disarray in their leadership. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

The newest incursion into Kursk is not an isolated action but a deliberate continuation of Ukraine’s border pressure campaign. Combined with the earlier Belgorod operation, it represents a clear attempt to overstretch Russian military capacity, disrupt reinforcements to Eastern Ukraine, and deny the Russian command any breathing room.The  Ukrainian plan incorporates creating multiple simultaneous threats along the border and strategically prevents the Russians from focusing on their Donbas summer campaign by baiting them into costly defensive operations in Kursk.

Ukraine's New AI Drones Outwit, Outfight Russian EW In New Kursk Assault

The success of Ukraine's most recent assault into Kursk oblast owes much credit to a new wave of AI-powered drones able to continue to attack even when cut off by Russian electronic warfare. 

The AI drones eliminated crucial targets preliminary to the latest Kursk offensive and are now destroying Russian armor and troops attempting to stem the Ukrainian advance. JL

David Axe reports in Euromaidan Press:

While Russia deploys advanced jamming systems that render conventional drones useless, HF-1s contain AI that enables them to identify and strike targets even when communications are lost. This autonomous capability makes them valuable against Russia’s growing electronic warfare presence along the border. The explosives-laden loitering drones, range as far as 100 kilometers and can spot their own targets by way of an internal AI that recognizes the shapes of Russian vehicles. Unmanned Systems Forces hit five tanks, 12 artillery pieces, four rocket launchers, and 11 air-defense vehicles, among other vehicles 

Why New Research Reports AI Use Viewed As "Lazy, Incompetent" By Co-Workers

A brand new study from the US National Academy of Sciences reveals that those who use AI at work are judged as incompetent and unmotivated by co-workers. 

While this may seem surprising in an economy where technological adaptation has been viewed as a sign of intelligence and entrepreneurial acumen, the negative bias follows an historical pattern consistent with the introduction of new technologies. In other words, it may have more to do with resentment and jealousy than actual performance. But the short term reputational impacts could slow adoption, meaning tech firms need to address them. JL

Benj Edwards reports in ars technica:

The National Academy of Sciences on Thursday published a study showing that employees who use AI tools like ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini at work face negative judgments about their competence and motivation from colleagues and managers. The findings reveal reveal a consistent pattern of bias against those who receive help from AI. (And) the social stigmatization of AI use is not limited to its use among particular demographic groups. The result appears to be a general one." Managers who didn't use AI themselves were less likely to hire candidates who regularly used AI tools. Managers who use AI favor AI-using candidates. Similar concerns of stigma have historically accompanied new technologies. People have long worried that labor-saving tools might reflect poorly on users' abilities.

Ukraine Drone Raids Spark Chaos In Russia Days Before Putin's Red Square Parade

Ukrainian drone strikes on military and logistics targets inside Russia days before the Red Square 'victory' parade are causing chaos in Russia as flights are cancelled, airports shut down and preparations for the parade include practicing how to evacuate senior officials and guests. 

The larger point is to illustrate to Russians that three years into the war, the Kremlin is incapable of defending itself, let alone its people. JL

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

Ukrainian drones fired into Russia have hit military facilities and airbases, disrupted airports, caused flight cancellations, internet outages and forced school closures. Drones struck Russian strategic defense industry facilities, including weapons and military technology sites. Chaos caused by Ukrainian drones ahead of Moscow's May 9 Victory Day celebrations in the Russian capital's Red Square has been reported. Victory parade preparations include drills on how to evacuate top officials from Red Square.

US Special Envoy Admits Putin Is Main Obstacle To Peace Deal

Despite Putin's obstinacy, the US has so far refused to increase sanctions or other penalties on Russia. It has. on the other hand, resumed sales of military equipment to Ukraine, which it may view as a punishment for the Kremlin. JL 

Tim Zadorozhny reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine suggested creating a demilitarized zone jointly controlled by Kyiv and Moscow, U.S. special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg said in a Fox News interview. Kellogg said the main obstacle to reaching a deal is Putin's refusal to accept a ceasefire. The arrangement could accompany a ceasefire "in place," meaning both sides would maintain control of the territory they currently occupy. Putin's demands require Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts

The Reason Ukraine Re-Invaded Kursk 4 Days Before Moscow's V-Day Parade

Ukrainian forces re-invaded Russia's Kursk oblast on May 5, four days before the Kremlin's annual Victory Day parade. 

The Ukrainian offensive has two purposes: the first, military, reason is to force Russia to keep troops deployed in Kursk rather than moving them to other sectors of the front. The second reason is that it embarrasses Putin and serves as a reminder that the Russian military is weak and ineffectual, despite Kremlin posturing about how they are 'winning.' JL

Serhiy Zgurets reports in Espreso Global:

On May 5, Ukrainian forces attacked from the north and south of Tyotkino in the Kursk region, as well as near the village of Novyi Put. The Ukrainians are imposing their own rules on the Russians. The Ukrainian military is trying to isolate the Russian units near the village of Tyotkino and in the Hlushkivskyi district of Kursk. A Russian UAV control center in Tyotkino was hit by airstrikes. The strike killed 20 Russian soldiers. Russia will be forced to disperse its forces, and its plans have been disrupted. This could reduce Russia’s ability to secure areas bordering Sumy. (And) to show that on Russia’s Victory Day in parades on Red Square, Russia is incapable of defending its own territory. 

How a Ukrainian Leopard Tank Survived 10 FPV Drone Strikes

A Ukrainian Leopard tank survived 10 drone strikes - which would have destroyed any Russian tank - illustrating the superiority of their design and durability. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

A Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 tank in eastern Ukraine survived certain death for any Russian tank—10 first-person-view (FPV) drone strikes that triggered an ammunition explosion. On 50 occasions since the first of the 61-ton, four-person tanks reached the front line, they’ve run over Russian mines or been struck by Russian anti-tank missiles, drones, or artillery. But the Ukrainians have lost just 12 Leopard 2A4s. The Leopard 2A4 tend to have better optics and fire controls. But it’s their protection that makes them so durable. Crews use turret stowage, even if that means a reduction in the tank’s 42-shell capacity. Unlike the hull compartment, the turret compartment has a blow-out panel. When a Leopard 2A4 gets hit and the ammo cooks off, it explodes outward

Russian Infantry Attacks' Effectiveness Declining As Average Troop Age Gets Older

One of the reasons the Russians are using more motorbikes - in addition to the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones against traditional armor - is that the average age of Russian soldiers is getting older, meaning that they cannot maneuver or run like younger troops so need added boost. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

The effectiveness of Russian infantry attacks is decreasing due to the lack of young recruits. "They have a tendency for the average age in combat units to get older. “Previously, they were young guys, but now they are 40-plus uncles. We have the same problem, but we are on the defense. And they have this problem because they attack and storm. Uncles, especially if they are from the Russian hinterland, do not run very well, especially if they are also loaded.”

Ukraine Launches (Another) Surprise Offensive Against Russia's Kursk Oblast

Ukrainian forces have launched yet another surprise offensive against Russia's Kursk oblast just a month after Moscow claimed to have retaken it - and just days before Putin's latest victory parade in what is seen as a cleverly timed assault that will embarrass the Kremlin and further undermine its military's already tarnished reputation. JL

TVP World reports:

Ukrainian forces, taking advantage of rainy weather conditions breached the border into Russia's Kursk region just a month after Moscow claimed to have expelled Kyiv's forces. They fired missiles, crossed minefields and sent in troops. "The enemy blew up bridges at night, and launched an attack with armored vehicles in the morning. Mine clearance vehicles made passages in minefields followed by armor. There is a heavy battle going on at the border."

Was This the Week Putin Badly Miscalculated?

With renewed arms shipments from the US to Ukraine, lots of negative commentary about Russian military capabilities from US politicians and all in addition to Ukraine's bold refusal to guarantee the safety of anyone - including heads of state - attending Moscow's annual Victory Day parade, there are signs that Putin's may have miscalculated his chances in Ukraine as well as his putative hold over the White House. 

The US administration offered Putin everything he could have wanted short of complete Ukrainian capitulation. But he turned the deal down, and not especially politely. This could be a scripted kabuki-like ploy to convince the world that they disagree in order to make the US look better in the short term. But it is more likely that Putin thought he had a deal, whereas if the world has learned anything over the past hundred days, it is that all deals require further concessions - and no deal is final. Especially when your army continues to underperform on the ground. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Putin made a serious miscalculation (because he believed he had the USA in the bag). Trump offered him everything he could have wanted, and Putin seems to have rashly turned it down. In doing so Putin might very well have miscalculated about Russian strength, how far the US will go to help him, and the state of Ukraine. It could be a fateful error. The Russians then turned around and made a preposterous suggestion that, as a sign of goodwill, Ukraine and Russia should undertake a three day ceasefire starting May 8. This was the most self-serving of gestures as it would allow Putin to hold his Victory Day Parade on May 9th in Red Square without fear of Ukrainian long-range attack. The Ukrainians refused to guarantee the safety of anyone attending the parade. 

Businesses Are Focused Less On Stock Markets Than Declining Port Traffic

Equity markets go up and down. They are infamously tied less to the underlying economy than their own set of incentives and inhibitors. 

Which is my many businesses, while paying attention to stocks, are more focused on the rapidly declining port traffic in LA and Long Beach, the US' busiest by far, because those signal that the economy is seizing up. And the implications are that such declines will take a while to reverse. JL

Juliette Kayyem reports in The Atlantic:

Stock markets plunged after tariffs were announced. But other signs are growing more ominous - including at the Port of Los Angeles - processes about 17% of everything the United States imports or exports in shipping containers. The adjoining Port of Long Beach accounts for another 14% - where high tariffs on China are crushing maritime traffic. Cargo arrivals could soon be down 35% over the same time last year. “Essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased.” This trade war is different because it is unpredictable and indefinite. What’s happening in Los Angeles suggests that financial markets have yet to fully price in how much the tariff war is hurting the economy. The stock market goes up and down. Maritime indicators keep on sinking.

Putin's Rising Losses, Declining "Return on Investment" In Ukraine Signals Failure

"I lost a million troops and ten years worth of weapons in Ukraine and all I got was this lousy wasteland..." 

After profligate expenditures of men, armor and artillery, all Putin has to show for his effort is the 19% of Ukraine he was able to grab at the beginning three years ago. And that is largely a smoldering heap of rubble that will take years - and billions of rubles - to restore so that it can generate any sort of economic return. If that werent bad enough, his country's ferocious military reputation is shattered by repeated offensive failures, incompetence and corruption. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to out-fight, out-innovate and out-last his declining military, suggesting that Putin's belief that he can outlast his smaller rival is no longer accurate. If it ever was. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

While Russia may have cleared Ukrainian forces from much of Kursk, the opportunity cost is advances foregone by Russian forces in eastern and southern Ukraine. If all they get is the territory they have been battering for the last three years then the ‘special military operation’ will have failed. This conflict always had a territorial aspect but the core objective was to deny Ukraine its independence. Putin might bluff his way through another summer campaign season, after that, Russian forces are facing increasing shortages. Putin might still believe he can defeat Ukraine, but his theory of victory is that his forces can last just a little bit longer than Ukraine’s. But if Ukraine continues to increase its kill rate of Russians with more drone strikes, adaptive tactics and western assistance, this Russian theory of victory is far from assured

In Global First, Ukraine Drone Boat's Missiles Shoot Down 2 Russian Fighter Jets

This attack is significant for two reasons: it is the first time a drone boat has used air to air missiles to shoot down fighter planes anywhere in the world, marking yet another Ukrainian military innovation that is changing the nature of warfare. 

Secondly, it happened close to the Russian port of Novorossiysk far to the east of Crimea, which is where the decimated Black Sea Fleet retreated after it lost so many ships to the shipless Ukrainian Navy. This simply emphasizes another of Russia's military challenges as its Ukrainian invasion falters. JL  

Howard Altman reports in The War Zone:

Ukrainian Sidewinder infrared-guided air-to-air missiles fired by Magura-7 drone boats shot down two Russian Su-30 Flanker multirole jet fighters in a global first. This marks the first time fighter airecraft have been downed by drone boats and the first use of the AIM-9 from a drone boat for a kill. The incident took place in the Black Sea on Friday. The crew of the first Su-30 survived and was picked up in the Black Sea by a civilian ship. Preliminary reports say the crew of the second jet was killed. Ukraine shot the Su-30 down about 50 km (about 31 miles) west of Novorossiysk, “using the same tactics: lured it out and caught it