Back from his summons to Beijing, where he was forced to smile tightly as Russia's former client paraded the sort of modern military might he frittered away in Ukraine's mud, Putin is now back watching Ukrainian drones and missiles take out 20% of his oil refining capacity while what is left of his army tries, for the eighteenth month, to advance on, let alone take, the obscure former mining town of Pokrovsk. Even if they succeed - increasingly unlikely, but only even remotely possible because of Ukrainian shortages rather than Russian leadership or bravery - Putin will be left with yet another smoldering Donbas ruin requiring billions in investment he doesn't have before it can even begin to contribute financially to the imploding Russian economy.
Meanwhile, his former clients are deserting Russia for better funded opportunities with the Chinese or Saudis, his weapons have proven deficient compared to NATOs, his army a corrupt, ineffective embarrassment and his economy increasingly tied to oil imports and artillery shells while the rest of the first, second and third world focuses on AI. So sure, shoot some drones at Poland, as you desperately attempt to proclaim your relevance in the 21st century. JL
Jeremy Shapiro reports in The Atlantic:
Far from making Russia a superpower, Russia’s war against Ukraine has relegated it from would-be empire to China’s disgruntled junior partner. Russia's economy churns out missiles as the rest of the world invests in AI and microchips. The Kremlin has succeeded in building a fortress economy, but one that is fortified against the future more than against the enemy. The Kremlin seems uninterested in ending the war (because) a compromise peace would not (only) expose a defeat on the battlefield but something far worse: an angry Ukrainian neighbor; a more unified, hostile Europe; a ruined economy; a gutted army; reduced international influence; and a boss in Beijing. Russia has proved not its resilience but its near irrelevance. That is not victory but self-inflicted decline.