A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Sep 13, 2025

Operation Decapitation: Ukraine Strikes All Russian Pokrovsk HQs At Once

Not that the results of almost four years of war against Ukraine suggest that leadership is one of the Russian military's strengths, but wiping out most of the Russian headquarters managing the Pokrovsk front is bound to cause confusion and delay for a top-down organization like the Kremlin's army. JL

RFU News reports:

As Russia had begun a massive regrouping, pulling in reinforcements from across its stagnating offensives to feed the fight for Pokrovsk, Ukraine struck a decisive blow. By launching a massive wave of coordinated strikes, the Ukrainian forces crippled three major command posts and eliminated dozens of high-ranking officers, completely beheading and halting the Russian offensive. These three strikes, occurring within minutes of each other, stunned Russian defenses, as eyewitnesses described anti-aircraft fire tracing the sky only after the missiles had already hit. The strikes were carried out by the jet-propelled cruise missile-style drones, with a range of 700 kilometers at speeds up to 700 kilometers an hour.

Sep 12, 2025

Russians Eligible For Military Service Now Blocked From Travel Abroad

Not exactly a sign that volunteers and conscripts eager to join the Russian military and get killed in Ukraine are plentiful. JL

Sonia Kozatskyi reports in Militarnyi:

In Russia, people eligible for military service have been blocked from traveling abroad after the launch of electronic military registration and the distribution of electronic draft notices. The first such case occurred yesterday, September 11. At the end of August 2025, the Russian government decided to extend the validity of military conscription notices to one year, thereby allowing a person to be drafted or mobilized during two conscription periods.

How Ukraine Annihilated Russia's Sumy Offensive

The heralded Russian offensive into Sumy at the beginning of the summer has ended as ignominiously as all of its others.  

But Ukraine's defense of Sumy is noteworthy for the methodical way in which its armed forces repeatedly targeted Russian air defenses protecting command and logistics centers - and then destroyed the assets they were protecting, including troop concentrations. As a result, the Russians were never able to mass an effective fighting force, let alone attack at scale. The surviving Russians in Sumy are now mostly being redeployed to Pokrovsk, where they are likely to meet the same fate as their now departed comrades. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukraine crushed the Russian offensive into Sumy by cutting off supply and reinforcement routes, including roads and bridges, through continuous targeting from the air. This was made possible by systematic clearing of Russian air defenses. Buk and Tor systems, deployed to protect Russian command posts and depots, became prime targetsUkraine' air force destroyed bases where Russian drone operators were hiding before destroying troop concentrations. On the Kursk region, the headquarters of the 155th Marine Brigade was obliterated while preparing for redeployment to Pokrovsk. High-ranking officers, including Major General Gudkov, were killed, gutting the command. Russia has begun pulling units from Sumy, a sign the offensive has failed

As AI Gets Smarter, It Is Becoming More Expensive Rather Than Less

Concerns about the cost of AI have run rampant for over a year now and providers promises that the results are worth it have long begun to wear thin. 

Now, in addition to the investment required for soft and hard AI development, users are finding that, contrary to industry promises, the cost of actually using AI is rising. The reason is that as AI developer work to provide better answers, the more time, aka tokens, are needed, which raises costs. The question tech is beginning to face is at what price customers will determine that the outcomes do not justify the price. JL

Christopher Mims reports in the Wall Street Journal:

As AI got smarter, it was supposed to become too cheap (but) for apps that make software or analyze documents, bills are higher than expected—and growing. The latest AI are doing more “thinking,” when used for research, AI agents and coding. So while the price of a unit of AI, known as a token, drops, the number of tokens needed to accomplish many tasks is skyrocketing. Despite the drop in cost per token, many new forms of AI re-run queries to check answers, gather extra intel or write their own programs, before answering. AI agents will carry out a lengthy actions based on user prompts. They may deliver better responses, but can spend a lot more tokens in the process. While rate limits and dumber AI could help some AI-using startups, price hikes will drive customers away. And the really big players, which own their own monster models, can lose money while serving their customers

Sep 11, 2025

Russia's Zaporizhzhia Offensive Has Failed, As Surviving Troops Dig In

Having made a half-hearted attempt this summer to advance in Zaporizhzhia without sufficient forces, Ukrainian intelligence now reports that the Russians have halted any further attempts to attack and are digging in. 

This situation is similar to those in Kursk and Sumy, where the Russians also failed to make gains and from which they are now redeploying surviving troops to Pokrovsk. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Russia’s invasion forces failed to advance in Zaporizhzhya Oblast during their summer campaign as they lacked sufficient forces. Another reason for the failure of Russia’s summer offensive was fortifications. The Zaporizhzhya front is one of the most fortified. Russian troops made minimal gains, described as “cockroach-like advances through forested areas, measured not in kilometers but in tens and hundreds of meters. Breaking through the defense lines “would require enormous human resources, which Russia currently lacks.”

Putin's Poland Drone Barrage Was Intentional Test of NATO Response - And Resolve

Even as his army falters - again - in Ukraine, Putin is trying to create the impression that Russia's threat to Europe is growing. 

In sending drones into Polish - and, therefore, NATO - airspace, the Kremlin is testing Europe's response capabilities, challenging its resolve and offering a threat. Whether he can back that up is questionable given the failure of his attempt to subdue Ukraine, but he will continue to try because it is worth the effort, given global nervousness about war - and not doing so would almost certainly lead to his overthrow. JL

Steven Erlanger reports in the New York Times:

Western officials believe the Russian drone barrage was intentional. Russia got important intelligence for the future, testing and revealing NATO’s readiness and responses to any incursion. The drone incursion “was a deliberate act by Russia to escalate tensions. If you want to undermine NATO and Europe’s security architecture in a few years, you want to test it. The ultimate target of these provocations is the US. Moscow seeks to pressure Washington by testing NATO, pushing buttons, to see what the Americans will do.” 

Russian Tank Army Massed At Pokrovsk Being Decimated By Ukrainian Drone Strikes

After pulling most of its dwindling tank reserves off the battlefield late last year, Russia has now pushed them forward again for what is allegedly for yet another 'final' on Pokrovsk. 

But rather than sending them in a massed assault, the Russians have them tiptoeing forward one or two at a time where, to no one's surprise, they are being decimated by the experienced tank killers of Ukraine's drone corps. This appears to be more Russian command timidity attempting to balance attack success versus Kremlin blame for losing tanks. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

The Russian tank army massed in Donetsk Oblast has begun attacking. But it’s sending its tanks and other armor into action one or two at a time - easy prey for Ukraine’s drones, mines and artillery. The Ukrainian brigades around Pokrovsk are skilled tank-killers. Ukrainian forces have destroyed, damaged or captured 4,100 Russian tanks since the war began, more tanks than Russia had in service before the war. They took out those tanks with mines, artillery, anti-tank missiles, FPV and grenade-dropping bomber drones. If the Russians can’t break through the reinforced Ukrainian defenses around Pokrovsk in the coming months, they might not get another chance anytime soon

Sep 10, 2025

Putin Is Losing the War To Ukraine - And To Everyone Else

Back from his summons to Beijing, where he was forced to smile tightly as Russia's former client paraded the sort of modern military might he frittered away in Ukraine's mud, Putin is now back watching Ukrainian drones and missiles take out 20% of his oil refining capacity while what is left of his army tries, for the eighteenth month, to advance on, let alone take, the obscure former mining town of Pokrovsk. Even if they succeed - increasingly unlikely, but only even remotely possible because of Ukrainian shortages rather than Russian leadership or bravery - Putin will be left with yet another smoldering Donbas ruin requiring billions in investment he doesn't have before it can even begin to contribute financially to the imploding Russian economy.

Meanwhile, his former clients are deserting Russia for better funded opportunities with the Chinese or Saudis, his weapons have proven deficient compared to NATOs, his army a corrupt, ineffective embarrassment and his economy increasingly tied to oil imports and artillery shells while the rest of the first, second and third world focuses on AI. So sure, shoot some drones at Poland, as you desperately attempt to proclaim your relevance in the 21st century. JL

Jeremy Shapiro reports in The Atlantic:

Far from making Russia a superpower, Russia’s war against Ukraine has relegated it from would-be empire to China’s disgruntled junior partner. Russia's economy churns out missiles as the rest of the world invests in AI and microchips. The Kremlin has succeeded in building a fortress economy, but one that is fortified against the future more than against the enemy. The Kremlin seems uninterested in ending the war (because) a compromise peace would not (only) expose a defeat on the battlefield but something far worse: an angry Ukrainian neighbor; a more unified, hostile Europe; a ruined economy; a gutted army; reduced international influence; and a boss in Beijing. Russia has proved not its resilience but its near irrelevance. That is not victory but self-inflicted decline.

Russia's Dobropillia 'Spearhead' Cut Off, Encircled, Decimated

Russia's Pokrovsk sector 'spearhead' near Dobropillia has become less like a weapon and more like a trophy point mounted on a wall.

The Russian force that three weeks ago was considered a threat, has now been cut off, surrounded and is suffering severe casualties as its logistics have been bombed twisted piles of junk and its reserves are incapable of relieving it due to clever Ukrainian counterattacks which have turned the Russian units from an opportunity to a liability. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukraine launched a penetration that pierced Russia’s exposed eastern Pokrovsk flank, catching their forces off balance. As the Russian lines crumbled, the Dobropillia offensive spearhead was cut off and isolated. Building off of saturation bombing, non-stop strikes in the rear, and ambushes of enemy units on the move, surveillance confirmed the Russian line was weak and logistics had almost completely collapsed. Ukrainian forces then pushed into the weakened Russian flank. With an established foothold in Novotoretske, this operation is evolving into an encirclement of the Russian assault force, and the momentum is now with Ukraine.

AI Is Powering A VC Investment Rebound In Healthcare Technologies

Investment in AI applications for healthcare has survived the breathless Covid-era hype about identifying and providing instant solutions to emerge with more mature approaches that actually solve problems, offer scalability and make a profit. 

This is not unlike what is happening in the rest of the AI investment universe but may even be further along. As a result, venture capital interest in the sector is soaring - and there is even talk about accessing public markets. JL

Brian Gormley reports in the Wall Street Journal:

U.S. and European healthtech startups raised $7.9 billion in venture capital in the first half, putting this year on pace to be the best funding year for the sector since 2022. AI’s potential to streamline administration and enable more personalized and preventive care is driving the resurgence. Venture capitalists are searching for startups with market traction that have a clear path to delivering a return on investment (such as) automated insurance verification and AI-driven software to check in on patients between doctor visits. Insufficient numbers of clinicians in mental health, family medicine and other specialties also drive interest in AI startups seeking to fill gaps in care.  “There’s pent-up demand for healthcare-tech deals on the public markets.”

Sep 9, 2025

Ukraine Becomes First To Deploy AI Drone Swarms In Combat

Current attack configurations usually deploy three drones - one for reconnaissance and two for dropping bombs - but swarms of 25 have been tested and swarms as large as 100 drones are expected in the future. 

The recon drone plots a route and the bomber drones then independently determine when to drop. The drones are adaptable, so can adjust if something changes or goes wrong. JL

Ivan Khomenko reports in United24 Media:

Ukraine has become the first military in history to conduct battlefield operations using drone swarms controlled by AI. Ukrainian units have already carried out more than 100 swarm operations. A common formation involves three drones—one reconnaissance platform and two carrying small bombs. The recon drone maps a route while the strike drones decide when and how to release their payload. The technology has been tested with up to 25 up drones. Swarms exceeding 100 UAVs are planned. The Ukrainians are employing software developed by the local company Swarmer, which enables drones to communicate with each other, identify targets, and adapt mid-mission.

Ukraine Destroys Russian Pokrovsk Army HQ After Hacking Security Cameras

Having failed to take Pokrovsk - or anyplace else - during its highly touted but once again hugely disappointing summer offensive, Russia is now purportedly preparing yet another 'massive' force for yet another 'final battle.' Pardon our cynicism. 

But Ukraine is well aware of the Kremlin's plans and has been preparing. It is surging its own additional troops to the area - and, perhaps more importantly - has taken the initiative to attack Russian headquarters, supply and troop concentrations. To that end, Ukrainian forces yesterday - September 8th - launched a concentrated missile and drone attack on Russian logistics and headquarters, destroying the command center of the field army responsible for Pokrovsk as well as that of a motor rifle division. It also wiped out an armor storage depot. The Ukrainians located these crucial nodes by hacking into Russian security cameras so it could track the assembling forces - and then strike them. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art and RFU News reports:

Russia is massing troops and tanks around Pokrovsk. While Ukraine surge reserves into the Pokrovsk sector, the Ukrainians are bombarding the Russians with drones and cruise missiles, targeting staging bases for Russian forces. Ukraine uncovered the Russian buildup by hacking into security camera networks near Russian bases. Ukraine unleashed missiles and drones, devastating convoys before they could reach the battlefield. Ukraine struck multiple command posts of the Russian army in Donetsk Oblast in a night assault. Cruise missiles destroyed command centers of the Russian 41st Army and 20th Motor Rifle Division. Footage and photos captured large columns of smoke and shattered buildings

Sep 8, 2025

At Pokrovsk In August, Ukraine Re-Took 5 Times More Ground Than It Lost

There are increasing reports of Ukrainian forces counterattacking across the front line, but particularly in the Pokrovsk sector, where much of the heaviest fighting continues to occur. 

This suggests that the Russians are also suffering from troop shortages, exacer bated by inadequate artillery and armor support which the Ukrainians are exploiting opportunistically. JL

Kateryna Hodunova reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian forces lost five square kilometers but regained control of 26 square kilometers in the Pokrovsk sector in Donetsk Oblast in August. A similar ratio of lost and regained territory was observed near the town of Dobropillia, where Russian forces made a short-lived but dramatic advance in early August through the use of infiltration tactics. The news reflects an increased frequency of counterattacking operations on the Ukrainian side, which has been in a strategic defensive posture along the front line in eastern Ukraine for almost two years.

Ukraine Has Turned Pokrovsk Into A Cauldron For Trapped Russians And Relief Force

Three weeks ago, there was concern at the unexpected Russian infiltration near Dobropillya north of Pokrovsk. But Ukraine's ability to adapt and react quickly has now turned it into a trap for Russian units that advanced too far and fast without adequate support, thinking they had an opening. 

And it has now forced the Russians, allegedly gathering another supposedly huge force for a 'final, climactic battle' to divert some of those troops in an attempt to relieve their trapped comrades. A movement for which the Ukrainians not only appear prepared but eagerly anticipating, as it brings more Russians into their kill zone while also diverting units the Kremlin were planning to use elsewhere. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine has turned what could have been a catastrophe into a horrendous killing field and a trap for the invaders. “There is a narrow corridor, six kilometers wide, under fire control of Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians have kept two pockets of Russians alive, isolated, and surrounded without access to supplies. Ukraine now has the opportunity to cut off or significantly push back the Northern pincer of the three pronged Russian effort to surround Pokrovsk.  By forcing the Russians to divert significant resources into an event which they had not expected messes up their plans for the expected “final decisive blow” to capture Pokrovsk. Ukraine has created the textbook “cauldron”. 

Selling the Myth Of AI Inevitability Is Core To the Tech Hype Playbook

Money continues to pour into AI even as more concerns are rising about its practical utility and whether it can deliver productivity as well as returns sufficient to justify those investments and the valuations they have spawned. One of the key elements of AI hype has been its ostensible 'inevitability,' the 'fact' that it is going to take over the workplace, like it or not. 

But as many surrender to that argument, it is worth noting that in terms or both economics and history, nothing is inevitable. It is, however, a clever framing that places skeptics or merely prudent analysts in a weaker position because it makes them appear naively counter to a force against which nothing can stand. Well led organizations will continue to ask tough questions and allocate resources based on their professional assessment of their experience with AI's application in the real world. JL 

Rachel Auslander reports in Fast Company:

With every technology that automates some of what we do in the workplace, the benefits are overpromised and under-delivered. They have to sell themselves as more than they feasibly are. They’re selling a fantasy, which they hope to make real, especially when they attempt to do things like labor arbitrage, where the profit isn’t coming out of the tech’s utility but allowing employers to pay less. If you’re trying to hype something, you’re promising radical change. You don’t want to get into the details about how this fits processes, markets, and models. The more you get into those details, you get into how things might not work. Framing a technology as inevitable is powerful because this makes others argue from weaker position. Technologies aren’t a rising tide that lifts all boats - and nothing, especially AI, is inevitable. 

Sep 7, 2025

Ukraine's Ups Attacks On Russian Oil - Forces Slovakia, Hungary To Beg For A Break

Ukraine's long range drone attacks on Russian oil production, refining and distribution are starting to change the strategic war situation. 

20% of Russian refining capacity is now offline, up from 17% a few weeks ago. And Putin's erstwhile allies in Slovakia and Hungary, the NATO members most likely to support him, are now pleading with Ukraine to give them surcease, Slovakia even saying it will now support Ukrainian membership. At the same time, 26 European countries have pledged sustained, additional support for Ukraine. That's the difference between Ukraine's waging strategic war and the Kremlin's terror bombing civilian housing. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

In the last few hours the Ukrainians again struck Russian oil production, refining and distribution. The Ukrainians hit the refinery in Ilsky and the Druzhba pipeline, used to transport oil in Slovakia and Hungary. This is a sustained, well thought-out strategic air/bombing campaign against targets powering the Russian war effort. The Ukrainians have kept this oil campaign up continually for more than a month. These repeat attacks show that Ukraine is methodically undertaking a plan to put them out of action or cripple them for long periods. Putin is starting to warn the Russian people about fuel shortages—and that things will get worse before they get better. The Hungarians and Slovakians first hurled threats at the Ukrainians in August for the Druzhba pipeline attacks. Now, they are pleading with the Ukrainians to give them a break. 

Russia's Latest Armored Pokrovsk Offensive Got Off To "Disastrous" Start

The media drums of doom started beating against a few days ago - just a week or so after having been proven conclusively wrong about the previous 'unstoppable' Russian Pokrovsk offensive which was ground to dust by Ukrainian offenders. 

Having ominously pronounced the deployment of yet another massive force, replete with battle hardened paras, naval infantry and the remnants of Russia's depleted armor force, the world trembled as...Ukrainian drones, HIMARS, artillery and infantry again obliterated the attacking force. Just let us know if this repetition is becoming boring for you - but it certainly isn't for the Ukrainians destroying the Russian forces assembled at Pokrovsk. JL

RFU reports:

With the spearhead toward Dobropillia faltering, Russian forces received orders to strike into Myrnohrad (but) the push ended in disaster, leaving Russian forces exhausted and overextended. Recognizing the scale of the catastrophe, Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack that triggered the collapse of the next major Russian stronghold on the line. The destruction of 10 armored vehicles and over 100 Russian soldiers in these failed attempts was not merely a tactical setback, as they were a reserve force meant to achieve a breakthrough.  Even with redeployed marines and armored vehicles, Russian forces could not penetrate the Ukrainian defenses and instead suffered another costly defeat.