Russian Advances Remain 'Statistically Miniscule' As Cold Slows Them Further

It's mid-January, 2026. The usual culprits are clutching their pearls about incipient Ukrainian collapses while back in the real world, Russia's new year attacks have achieved...nada. 

Different year, same Russian army. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

One of the benefits of the cold weather is that it has taken Russia’s already historically slow pace of advance and made it worse. The Russian tactic of sending many small groups of soldiers out to advance or die is less successful if those troops cannot find cover and survive in the cold. And in the larger scheme of things, territorial changes remain statistically miniscule. Even with Trump protecting Putin and giving the Russians time to fight as they want, they can only crawl ahead.

One of the benefits of the cold weather is that it has taken Russia’s already historically slow pace of advance and made it worse. The Russian tactic of sending many small groups of soldiers out to advance or die is less successful if those troops cannot find cover and survive in the cold. Whereas weather helped the Russians a little in November (cloud and wind reduced the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone operation), now at least the weather is helping the Ukrainians.

And yet in the larger scheme of things, the changes remain statistically miniscule. The Institute for the Study of War put together this chart on just how slow Russian advances have been when looked at from the larger perspective.

Even with Trump protecting Putin and giving the Russians time to fight as they want, they can only crawl ahead.