A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 19, 2024

Russian Major Killed As TV Interview Reveals His Location To Ukraine Artillery

They also serve who spew propaganda. JL 

DailyMail online reports:

A Russian major was killed in eastern Ukraine after a propaganda TV crew broadcast his location to the Ukrainians. Footage captured the moment shells landed on the crew as they were filming near the frontlines in Kreminna, in the Luhansk oblast. Intense fighting is currently underway in the Kreminna forest and has been since the start of the year. Russia is trying to advance through the forest to re-take the small part of Luhansk it doesn’t control.

The Reasons Momentum May Again Be Shifting In Ukraine's Favor

Growing aid from Europe, the prospect of renewed aid from the US and a broadened recruit pool are bolstering Ukrainian prospects just as Russia, after almost six months of substantial manpower and ammunition advantages has failed to significantly advance anywhere along the front. 

And if that weren't enough, economic data reveal that Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refining capabilities has reduced its crude exports 25%, reducing its foreign exchange income and economic performance. JL 

Michael O'Hanlon reports in the Washington Post:

With another $60 billion in U.S. aid, a boost in recruiting and a military push through a section of the front, Ukraine might, late this year or early next, liberate more of its occupied territory. Given restored U.S. support, ongoing help from Europe, (and) recent changes in Ukrainian conscription law, if Ukraine pushed through the front lines, it could then isolate and defeat Russian forces by punching through Russian lines, and could widen the breakthrough corridor and penetrate farther. Geography and topography would favor Ukraine, as it could attack Russian forces from behind, a chance to stop Russian aggression, regain its Black Sea Coast, free its citizens and defend the global order.

Ukraine Shoots Down 1st Russian Strategic Bomber - 300 Km From Frontline

Russia launches missiles from strategic bombers flying hundreds of miles away from Ukraine on the assumption that the planes are safe from being shot down by Ukraine so far away. 

That assumption is no longer valid. JL 

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

One of the Tu-22M3 strategic bombers which carried out a missile strike against Ukraine overnight on 19 April was downed by Ukraine's Air Force 300 kilometres away from Ukraine using a long-range S-200 anti-aircraft missile system. The bomber crashed near Mozdok military airfield (North Ossetia, Russia) on the border with the Stavropol Krai, where these strategic bombers of Russia's Aerospace Forces are based. Russia launches Kh-22 missiles from Tu-22M3 aircraft. This is the first successful Ukrainian destruction of a strategic bomber in the air during a combat mission.

Ukraine's Active Defense Disrupts Russian Kupiansk Assault, Stabilizes Front

Ukraine's 'active defense' strategy is gaining advantages as opportunistic Ukrainian strikes on undermanned or underprotected Russian sectors have disrupted Russia's planned Kupiansk assault.

Additional strikes on Russian troop concentrations and logistics has further delayed or derailed other Russian attacks, contributing to the stabilization of the front despite Russian troop and ammunition advantages. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate a significant capability to strike, contributing to the stabilization of the front line. Ukraine took advantage of a Russian operational pause to increase pressure around Kupiansk, raiding ammunition depots and undermining Russian logistics. Ukrainians' disruptions make the amassing of a Russian offensive difficult. In some areas, such as the strong point of Synkivka, Ukrainian forces recovered ground, and Russian forces had to retreat. Sources reported a widespread increase in looting in occupied territories, raids on civilian properties including theft of canned food, which may be an indicator of increasing Russian shortages of food, water, and clothes.

Econ 101: How Musk's Dependence On China Gave It the Data To Beat Tesla

American executives keep believing that they are the ones who will outwit China. That their product is so advanced, so essential, so special that the vast Chinese market will embrace them, forcing the Chinese government to protect their enterprise. 

But whether it's Boeing, Apple, MGM or Tesla the result is the same: China takes or steals their intellectual property and makes it available to domestic Chinese companies which then underprice the foreign competitor, force them out of the Chinese market - and then outcompete them in global markets as well. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers are now in the process of driving Tesla out of China, Southeast Asia and, perhaps, out of business or forcing it to become a subsidiary of some US or European multinational. The Chinese recognize that owning intangible value like patents and software leads to creating unbeatable tangible value, so they either demand access to it as a cost of entering China - or they appropriate it in other ways. The only surprising aspect of this is that non-Chinese CEOs keep falling for it. JL

Noah Smith reports in his blog, Noahpinion:

Since July of last year Tesla lost $400 billion in market capitalization, a decline of 40%. Tesla's revenue stopped growing, it recently laid off 10% of its workforce and two top executives quit. A shadow looming over Tesla’s growth is competition from Chinese companies (which are) ramping up EV production. The same techniques China is using to defeat Tesla are used to defeat any other American competitor, a predictable cycle (affecting) multinational companies in China: a company puts factories in China, lured by cheap production and the dream of a huge market; China appropriates the company’s technology into the hands of Chinese companies; the Chinese squeeze the multinational out of the Chinese market and then outcompete the multinational in world markets.

Apr 18, 2024

Ukrainian Drones Convey Images Of Russians And Vehicles They're About To Destroy

This is the last photo of a Russian soldier looking up from an infantry fighting vehicle already damaged by an FPV drone as he realizes another one - which took this photo - is about to slam into the armored vehicle and kill him. 

This is the reality of the drone war in Ukraine. JL 

Militarnyi reports:

FPV drones of the 12th Azov Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine destroyed a group of Russian infantry near Terny. intelligence first spotted the armored group of Russians moving towards the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kreminna sector.Enemy infantrymen tried to hide inside a damaged infantry fighting vehicle and closed the door behind him, but this did not save them from the drone.

Russia Continues To Lose As Exposed Shortcomings Belie Its Advantages

Current headlines might suggest to some that Ukraine's position is desperate and possibly untenable. 

But with the US Congress hopefully about to approve additional funding for Ukraine, after a six month delay, Russia's vulnerabilities are revealed as or more grave than Ukraine's. The point is that Ukraine's strengths are stronger than Russia's while its weaknesses are not as weak. JL

General Ben Hodges (US Army, retired) reports in The Atlantic Council:

We are witnessing the continuing collapse of the USSR, which began in 1991. Putin’s war against Ukraine has undermined Russia’s economy and severed it from much of the West. His military has been exposed for shortcomings and corruption. Former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact members have turned their backs on Russia. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. After 10 years of war, and despite every advantage, Russia still only controls under 20% of Ukraine. The Russian army has suffered hundreds of thousands of losses. The Black Sea Fleet has lost one-third of its ships. The Russian Air Force has failed its two main tasks of securing air superiority and cutting supply lines into Ukraine from the EU.