New Kupiansk, Pokrovsk Counterattacks Show Ukraine Making Gains, Russia Overstretched

Ukraine's recent successes at Kupiansk and Pokrovsk show both that Ukraine is capable of making 'tactically significant gains' against overstretched Russian forces which are suffering disproportionately high casualty rates causing repeated timetable slippage.

The implication is that Ukraine is stronger than the Kremlin and sympathetic or intellectually lazy western media are reporting and that Russian forces are both weaker and less capable than ever. JL 

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

The Ukrainian advances in Kupyansk show Ukrainian forces are capable of conducting successful counterattacks and making tactically significant gains, particularly when Russian forces are overstretched. The seizure of Kupyansk has been a Russian priority but Russian forces have been unable to allocate sufficient forces to overcome Ukrainian defenses. Russia has also struggled to move troops into Kupyansk because Ukrainian forces have been maintaining fire control over Russian logistics. Russian advances have come at disproportionately high casualty rates and significant time costs, and Russian forces have had to commit 150,000 servicemembers to the Pokrovsk direction alone.

Ukrainian Forces In Pokrovsk "Holding Strong" As Kremlin "Desperate" To Enter

Russian forces are desperate to enter Pokrovsk now for two reasons First, Putin wants it in order to convince Trump that his win really is inevitable. The repeated failures to take the city have undermined his dominance narrative in the US and Europe. 

The other reason is that winter has arrived in Ukraine. The Russians outside Pokrovsk are exposed, cold - and under supplied. Getting into the city, even in its ruins, would enable them to stay somewhat warmer and perhaps not die as temperatures plunge. But so far, counter to the narrative the Kremlin is trying to flog, the Russians are unable to take Pokrovsk completely - again - just as they have failed to do for over a year. JL

Espreso Global reports:

Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad is holding strong. Russian forces are pushing to break through defenses and enter the city, (but) only small, scattered groups are making it. Several hundred Russian soldiers are in Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area. "Their task is to try to gain a foothold and expand control. They are constantly trying to break through and enter urban areas, as doing so with the onset of winter increases their chances of survival. But the main mass of Russian troops is still concentrated in the so-called red and gray zones, which we see on the maps outside the cities."

Oracle Falls 16% As Its AI 'Pay Now, Earn Later' Strategy Spooks Market

Oracle was supposed to be one of the AI winners: a big company with a big balance sheet and big earnings able to invest, earn and dominate while others struggled. So when its stock fell 16% after it announced latest earnings this week, it was taken as a market verdict on the state of AI and its hype - eg, you may be selling but the market isn't buying. 

The issue is that if a company as huge as Oracle is hemorrhaging cash to fund the AI buildout at the scale it is - with the payback as far off and paltry as it appears to be, than no one is safe. Oracle is a very large canary. But the coal mine bottomless. JL

Shannon Carroll reports in Quartz:

Oracle stock fell 16% after it reported earnings wiping out $70 billion from the company’s market value as investors saw earnings that showed, over the quarter, Oracle has burned $10 billion of free cash. Oracle’s AI “power” play to build out the infrastructure OpenAI and others need depends on everyone believing that the lights will stay on long enough for the money to show up. But this quarter’s earnings made it painfully clear that the AI boom Oracle is being financed on credit first, cash later. its AI contracts are real and enormous — but the capacity has to exist now, while the money to justify it drips in over years. So the company is plugging the gap with its balance sheet. Oracle’s AI story looks less like “software margins forever” and more like “utility economics with a whole lot of leverage.” 

Ukrainian Marines Mop Up Russian Stragglers In Ivanivka

Ukrainian Marines mopping up Ivanivka in a follow up to clearing it last month discovered a stranded Russian squad. 

The Ukrainians killed five of the Russians in a firefight after which the remaining ten Russians surrendered. The significance of this action is best understood in the context of recent Ukrainian successes at Kupiansk and Pokrovsk where, rather than appearing stronger as Kremlin propaganda would suggest, more Russian soldiers appear to be surrendering when they have the chance. JL

Sania Kozatzkyi reports in Militarnyi:

The 2nd Battalion of the 37th Separate Marine Brigade captured 10 Russians during the mopping up of Ivanivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Five more were killed in a firefight. All those captured served in the 228th Assault Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the Russian Army. In late November, the brigade partially retook Ivanivka and captured 19 Russians. Another 53 invaders were eliminated during that fighting. As of December 10, the settlement was controlled by Ukrainian Defense Forces. At the same time, the approaches to it and the surrounding area are under Ukrainian fire control.

Russians Cut Off, Much of Kupiansk Retaken As Zelensky Speaks From City

Putting an emphatic exclamation point on Ukraine's Kupiansk counteroffensive, President Zelensky visited troops inside the city where fighting is still going on and thanked those units who have retaken much of the city, contradicting the Kremlin's claims of having occupied it. Putin has never been seen anywhere near this or any active combat zone.

Ukrainian forces have completely encircled the Russian units still hiding inside Kupiansk as they have taken parts of the city and much of the surrounding countryside. JL

Jared Goyette reports in the Kyiv Independent and Vlad Litnarovych reports in United 24:

Ukrainian President Zelensky on Dec 12 recorded a video from Kupiansk as the 2nd Khartia Corps carried out a successful counteroffensive, encircling Russian forces inside the city. Numerous units including the 475th Assault Regiment and the 92nd Assault Brigade, liberated Kindrashivka, its outskirts, and surrounding forest areas. At the same time, the 13th Khartiia Brigade cleared Radkivka and nearby terrain and forced Russian troops out of dozens of buildings in northern Kupiansk. "The reality speaks for itself. I visited our troops," Zelensky said in a message, in which he stands in front of the bullet riddled sign marking the entrance to the city,

2 Russian Airborne Battalions "Destroyed" In Failed Pokrovsk Armor Attack

As reported yesterday, Russian forces attempted a 'massive' armor attack on Pokrovsk, hoping once and for all to deliver the prize Putin has been yearning for, then prematurely claiming but actually failing to take.

As more information emerges today, not only did Ukrainian drone units and the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps decisively defeat the attack, they destroyed two battalions worth of elite paratroopers who led the assault. So not only was the threat beaten back but the Ukrainians once again inflicted significant casualties on Russian military. So much for inevitability. JL 

Yuri Zoria reports in Euromaidan Press:

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces destroyed two Russian infantry battalions in just two days at Pokrovsk. Russia's 76th Guards Air Assault Division suffered the heaviest losses (while) attempting a mechanized assault near Pokrovsk. The attack began in the morning, with Russian troops attempting to exploit poor weather conditions to advance toward Pokrovsk. The mechanized columns advanced from the south toward the northern outskirts of the city, where Ukrainian troops destroyed most of the Russian equipment and troops.

US Investors Are Flocking To Make Money Funding Chinese AI

There may be 'tensions' between the US and China, but when it comes to making money, especially in AI, the market is global.

Data indicate that US investors are rushing to deploy capital into Chinese AI because it's clearly competitive and may become dominant, because there are only two real sources of AI development - with the US probably overvalued - and because it makes sense to diversify both risk and opportunity. JL

Rory Jones and Tracy Qu report in the Wall Street Journal:

US investors are plowing money into Chinese companies involved in AI, driving up share prices of Chinese tech companies developing AI models. Venture-capital firms based in China are raising U.S. dollar-denominated funds to deploy in AI investments. Capital flows into funds that track the broader tech sector in China were outpacing the U.S. this year, with U.S. investors making up 15% of the money moving into China tech ETFs. Investors are increasingly drawn to the opportunity in China, after Chinese AI models—led by DeepSeek—have shown they can compete with U.S. peers. U.S. investors face no limitations in buying public shares of Chinese companies in AI.  Morgan Stanley said 90% of investors in meetings wanted to increase exposure to China—the highest interest in four years—because of Chinese companies in AI and biotech.