A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 26, 2024

How Ukraine's Prop Planes To Destroy Drones Without Using Rifles

Although too light for conventional machine gun or rocket pods, Ukrainian engineers are working on lighter weight alternatives that may make light weight planes more lethal for drone hunting. JL

Defense Express reports:

Although a Yak-52 crew taking down drones has been known since April 2024, it is only recently the idea was scaled up, and A-22 ultralight sport aircraft joined the ranks of Ukrainian drone hunters. The problem is that the method used for taking down the threats is from the World War I era: a crew member shooting at them with a rifle.  Installing pylons for suspension of unguided rockets and machine guns required a re-arrangement of the load-bearing components of the wing as the Yak-52 was too light but Ukrainian engineers are working on it.

Russian Friendly Fire Helps Ukrainians Surround Hlyboke

Russian forces in northern Kharkiv oblast are showing increasing problems with communications and coordination as friendly fire incidents proliferate, giving Ukrainian units opportunities for counterattacking, which has resulted in Hlyboke being surrounded by the Ukrainians. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:
Russian analysts have expressed concerns about the sustainability of their offensive operations in Kharkiv oblast .They needs to adopt a defensive posture there due to a lack of forces to sustain offensive operations. Poor planning is cited as the main reason for this shortage of forces.  Recently rotated Russian units are struggling with coordination and communication. This has led to instances of friendly fire, particularly during night operations, where Russian forces have engaged their own troops due to disorientation and poor communication. Ukrainian forces have conducted effective counteroffensive operations, exploiting gaps in Russian defenses and capitalizing on enemy coordination issues.

Why Poor Black Kids Are Doing Better And Poor White Kids Doing Worse

Data from new research reveal that the lives of poor black children in the US have improved compared to the lives of poor white children.

The trend does not appear to be limited to traditional locales such as the Rust Belt or Appalachia, but holds across almost all US regions. The cause, perhaps surprisingly given racist tropes, is that the parents of poor white children are less likely to have jobs. The data support earlier reports of increasing despair in poor white communities as the jobs - at some of them union - have been offshored, leaving communities and neighborhoods devastated. The sad irony is that reports accusing corporations of these changes which, they go on to say, have resulted in working class support for Donald Trump, frequently fail to mention that the executives who removed those jobs did so overwhelming supported - and support - Trump and his policies. JL 

Annie Lowrey reports in The Atlantic:

Children born in lower-income white families did not fall behind relative to higher-income whites or Black families. They fell behind in absolute terms. Poor white kids born in 1992 were earning $1,530 less at age 27 than poor white kids born in 1978. Fewer were married, fewer had graduated from college, and more were incarcerated. Poor Black kids born in 1992 were making $1,607 more than those born in ’78. The chance of Black and white kids leaving the lowest-earning income quintile and reaching the middle class converged. Race gaps grew smaller and class gaps grew wider across metro areas. The lesson is that communities matter—not just in terms of wealth but in terms of social capital and societal expectations. “White kids were increasingly growing up in communities where low-income parents were not working.” That was not true of Black kids.

Jul 25, 2024

Ukraine's 79th Air Assault Brigade Repels Biggest Assault Of War at Kurakhove

Kurakhove is one of the sectors in which the Russians are pressing their attacks hardest this summer. 

That the Ukrainians have been able to stop them repeatedly while inflicting significant losses underscores the reality that Russia is running out of troops, equipment - and ideas. JL

Tetyana Oliynyk reports in Ukraine Pravda:

The 79th Air Assault Brigade repelled one of the biggest Russian assaults since the beginning of the war on the Kurakhove front. The Russians deployed 11 tanks, 45 armored vehicles and one Terminator tank support vehicle. The Russians also attacked using motorcycles – 12 ‘racers’ participated in the fight. The first tanks and armored combat vehicles were stopped by attack drones. Then anti-tank troops engaged. Russian armor was also hit by mines laid by the sappers of the 79th Brigade. The paratroopers struck six tanks and seven armored infantry fighting vehicles carrying personnel. All 12 motorcycles were destroyed. 40 Russian personnel were killed and 37 were injured.

Most Current Drone Warfare Assets Didnt Exist A Year Ago. Now They Dominate

From octocopters to targeting and jamming equipment, the drone war in Ukraine has evolved rapidly. Much of the equipment - and tactics for deploying them - didnt exist a year ago.

As drones increase their dominance of the Ukrainian battlefields, the only question is what new innovations will come next. JL 

Quentin Sommerville reports in the BBC:

The last images from drone cameras are usually of men panicking, their arms flailing, weapons firing before they are killed. The operators are cool and dispassionate, clinical in their targeting and killing. They are as far as three miles (5km) away from their targets. The Ukrainians have the upper hand in drone warfare, the Russians the advantage with glide bombs. Almost none of current drone technology was here in Ukraine a year ago; now it is commonplace. Drones, which were once peripheral to the war, are a central component for both sides, alongside infantry and artillery as Ukraine holds back Russian advances. "Fighting war this way - they are learning from us. This will be the future war."

Russia Expected To Lose Offensive Capability In "Another Month and A Half'

By this coming autumn - six weeks from now - Russia is expected to lose its ability to conduct offensive assaults against Ukrainian positions as the heedless slaughter of its conscripts in 'meat attacks' degrades its capabilities. 

Military manpower shortages are so severe that in some areas of the country, like Moscow and St Petersburg, recruits are being offered signing bonuses of $22,000 - a financial windfall in Russia. These troop shortages have been identified by Ukrainian commanders, who are beginning to authorize limited opportunistic attacks to regain territory. JL

The Kyiv Post reports
:
The commander Ukraine’s National Guard said Russia would be unable to sustain its multi-prong offensives in “another month and a half” and at that time, Ukraine should be ready to seize the initiative. "The enemy’s offensive capabilities are not limitless, and how many losses they will suffer ... another month or a half – and they will not be able to conduct active assaults in many directions at once and will be on the defensive."

Jul 24, 2024

Russia Has More Weapons But Suffers 3 Times Higher Losses Than Ukraine

Ukraine's goal this summer is to bleed Russian forces dry - and they are doing an excellent job of achieving that objective. JL

Martin Fornusek reports in the Kyiv Independent:

 Russia has lost over 570,000 troops killed or wounded as of late July. Russian successes are only "tactical," and come at high costs. Ukraine's top commander said that Russia suffers "three times" higher casualties than Kyiv's forces, and even higher in some areas. "When it comes to equipment, there is a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 in their favor," Ukraine managed to halt the Russian advance in northern Kharkiv Oblast and is ready to give a "good response" if Russia attempts an offensive in the southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.