Russian Drone Attacks Decline After Ukraine Cruise Missile Hits Factory

The number of Russian Shahed drones launched against Ukrainian targets has declined for two months in a row. This is due to a attack on a factory that makes crucial Shahed components, which inflicted significant damage on the facility. 

The attack was not by Ukrainian drones, but by Ukraine's own domestically manufactured cruise missiles. If this trend holds for yet another month, it may signal another important turning point in the degradation of Russia's war-making capabilities. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Between Between June 9 and 10, Ukrainian forces launched five Fire Point FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles at the VNIIR-Progress electronics plant in Cheboksary, in western Russia 550 miles from the front line in Ukraine. Two of the six-ton, $500,000 missiles struck the plant with their 2,500-pound warheads, punching right through anti-drone protections and inflicting major blast and fire damage that was apparent in photos and videos from the following days. In May, the Russians launched more than 8,000 Shaheds. And in both March and April they launched 6,500. One month doesn’t make a trend. But two just might. If Shahed launches are down in July, too, we may be able to look back at June as a turning point.

Well Paid Foreign Volunteers Expected To Comprise 50% of Ukraine Infantry

With dramatically increased pay and greater flexibility about choosing with which unit they wish to serve - part of a broader set of reforms for military service - Ukraine expects that as many as 50% of front line troops will eventually be foreign volunteers. 

Unlike the Russians who have tricked and bullied unsuspecting foreign workers lured to Russia by promise of jobs that didnt exist and then pressed into service, Ukraine is openly recruiting volunteers with military experience from other countries. South Americans have been particularly eager to fill the ranks, but Europeans, Asians and even some Americans have joined as well. JL

Alona Mazurenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

The Ukrainian Defence Ministry aims to have up to 50% of assault and infantry positions in the Ukrainian Armed Forces filled by foreign nationals. "There are going to be dozens of companies that will bring in thousands of people every month to serve in Ukraine – because salaries on the front line are becoming competitive, the companies will earn UAH 300,000 (around US$6,600) per foreign recruit. Secondly, a market is emerging for companies that will bring people in transparently, with no corruption and no schemes. We've introduced a new services procurement procedure in order to launch this project."

Russian Students Recruited As Drone Pilots Reassigned As Frontline Infantry

The only surprising thing about this news is that it appears to be surprising. The Russian military has repeatedly promised 'safe' rear area jobs to students, immigrants, older men and others, only to then send them to the front as infantry in exposed positions. 

The estimated survival time for a Russian private at the front is two weeks. This brings to mind a line from the movie, Animal House: "You fucked up, you trusted us." JL

Katherina Popilnichenko reports in Untied 24:

Young Russian students who signed specialized military contracts to serve as drone operators are being reclassified as regular infantrymen and deployed into direct frontline assaults. Recruiters targeted university and technical students, promising them technical training and safe positions away from active combat zones. he first known casualty from this specific recruitment practice in May. Valeriy Averin, a 23-year-old student from Buryatia, signed a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense in January during his final year at the Buryat Republican Technical School of Construction and Industrial Technologies. After completing drone pilot training, he was sent to the front and died in the Luhansk region on April 6, just days after deployment.

Ukraine's 118th Brigade Shoots Down 61 Russian Drones In 1 Day, Setting Record

Starting at 4am and continuing for almost 18 hours, the Ukrainian drone pilots took down a Russian drone approximately every 17 minutes. 

This tops the previous Ukrainian army record, which was 44 Russian drones shot down in one day. JL

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Drone pilots from the Sirius Unmanned Systems Battalion of Ukraine's 118th Mechanised Brigade have set a national record by destroying 61 Russian Molniya drones in a single day. With this result, the team not only more than doubled its previous achievement but has also raised the bar for all of Ukraine's defence forces. Until now, the highest number recorded in the country stood at 44 drones. The hunt began at dawn. The drone hunters brought down their first aerial asset at 04:10 and the last – the 61st – at 21:47. On average, the Russians lost one drone every 17.5 minutes. The crew remained continuously at their positions for almost 18 hours. 

Anthropic No Longer A National Security Threat According To Trump

Who knows how long it will last - or how much it cost - but Anthropic appears to be back in the Trump administration's good graces. According to President Trump. 

The White House's export control shut down of  Anthropic's latest and most powerful model was clearly more of a problem for the company than was the previous  'security threat' designation. But it is also possible that it dawned on the administration that by denying themselves access to this AI, they were only hurting their standing with the tech community and, oh by the way, the Pentagon and the country. JL

Cris Tolomia reports in Quartz:

President Donald Trump said he no longer views Anthropic or its chief executive, Dario Amodei, as a national security threat, walking back a position he held as recently as a week before. Talks between Anthropic and the administration advanced when the company's senior technical staff held meetings with government officials to work toward resolving the dispute. A framework for assessing AI jailbreaks is among the outcomes the two sides are pursuing together. Trump said Amodei responded to the administration's export control directive "very quickly" and described the CEO as "nice" and "smart" after the two met at the Group of Seven summit in France.

Data Reveal Russia's Spring Offensive And War Are Close To Breaking Down

For the past three months, Ukraine has netted more territory retaken than Russian has gained. One month is a data point; three months are a trend.

The broader implication is that Russia's spring-summer offensive is close to culminating - military jargon for coming to an end - with summer having only arrived three days ago. This suggests that the Kremlin's ability to seize more territory of any significance is waning. The next question is to what extent Ukraine can pick up the momentum. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Russian may have lost as much as 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory last month. Any advances reported are minor. Russia has struggled to convert its gains into a wider breakthrough. The best that might be said of Russia’s spring offensive on the ground is that it has stalled, and without a major injection of resources, appears close to culminating. Ukraine has seized the strategic initiative in this war, and it is using its current momentum to shape both the battlespace and the negotiating table. Each strike that reaches the Russian capital, sets a refinery alight or grounds traffic at Moscow’s airports, widens the gap between the Kremlin’s narrative of inevitable victory and the lived reality of Russia under Ukrainian drone and missile attacks.

Failed Russian Armored Assault On Sloviansk Leaves Burning Vehicles Behind

Feeling increasing pressure - and desperation - from the Kremlin, Russian units attempted to force a breakthrough at Sloviansk with an armored attack. To no one's surprise, it failed, leaving burning tanks and vehicles on the approach routes before they could even reach the Ukrainian defenses.

Given the widely-known strength of Ukraine's Fortress Belt defensive positions, as well as the increasing lethality of their drone units, it is not clear why the Russian command thought this might work. But then that refusal to acknowledge reality has characterized Russian tactics since the day they invaded. JL

RFU News reports:

At Sloviansk Russian forces launched one of their largest mechanized assaults in months in an attempt to force a breakthrough through the outer layer of the defenses in a single push. What followed left burning vehicles scattered across the battlefield. The main weakness of this Russian assault was that both attack groups had to cross exposed approach routes. That allowed Ukrainian defenders to track the advancing elements early, slow them on the route in, and then strike isolated groups as the assault began to break apart. Instead of arriving as a concentrated force, the Russian assault was reduced to smaller fragments that could be destroyed separately. A loss of momentum before the attackers ever reached the line caused burning wrecks to accumulate along the approach because Ukrainian defenses had turned the routes into a kill zone.