51 Ukraine Private Air Defense Units Have Shot Down 50 Russian Drones So Far

Since inviting private companies to establish their own air defense units, 51 companies have been approved so far and those units have shot down approximately 50 Russian drones. JL

Militarnyi reports:

Fifty-one companies have already joined a pilot project to deploy a private air defense system. All of these companies have been granted authorization to carry out air defense operations. They have already shot down more than 50 drones, including Shahed-type attack drones and Zala reconnaissance UAVs. In total, 62 companies of various ownership structures, representing different economic sectors and regions of Ukraine, have submitted applications to participate in the program.

In the Ukraine War's Endgame, Russian Attrition Rate Is 19 Times A Year Earlier

Russian forces are not only losing ground, people and equipment, they are doing so at a much faster rate than previously. The implication is that things are getting worse for Putin's war effort - and that there is no sign thy can or will get better. 

But even fears of escalation by a 'wounded animal,' such as Putin is frequently considered, are not dire as NATO is well aware of the threat and much better prepared for it than they ever have been. The result is that Russia's options have diminished and are expected to remain so. JL

Serge Schmemann reports in the New York Times:

Russia is still clawing away at Ukrainian territory, but at a snail’s pace and extraordinary cost. Ukraine says it inflicted almost 40,000 Russian dead and wounded in June, or about 1,300 casualties per square kilometer “seized or infiltrated,” an attrition rate 19 times what it was a year earlier. “Ukrainian forces are becoming increasingly effective at simultaneously slowing Russian advances and inflicting heavier losses.” Following the old precept of “shoot the archer, not the arrow,” Ukraine has been increasingly targeting military-industrial facilities deep in Russia with considerable effect, as evidenced by Russia’s recent ban on the export of diesel fuel. Mr. Putin's time is fast running out. 

Every Boom Has A Clock. AI May Already Be Approaching Saturation

An analyiis of recent technological revolutions reveals that they have a now predictable path in terms of uptake and length of impact before the boom excitement leads to casual acceptance as the norm.

What's different about AI is that it is moving two to three times faster than its predecessors. While that may or may not mean enhanced impact (it may just reflect the fact that in a technologically dominant socio-economic system, people adopt faster), it may mean that saturation and adaptation are happening at a much quicker rate. This, in turn, may mean that the most dramatic effects may have already been embraced and implemented so that future adjustments could be less impactful. Which may also be the reason why investors markets are pulling back and becoming more cautious about its future. JL

Aashray Iyer reports in Bootcamp:

Every tech revolution stops being a revolution and becomes...wallpaper. The internet got so woven into everything we stopped noticing. You just live there. The Mainframe Era (1950s–60s) gave us programming and software. The PC Revolution (1970s–80s) put a computer in your home. Dot-com peaked, crashed, and then became (life). The Mobile/App Store era (2007–2015) was social media, on-demand food. Every boom. About a decade. AI is moving 2 to 3x faster than any of these. The speed of AI’s evolution means we’ll soon be past the peak. The big, jaw-dropping leaps are largely done. What’s left is refinement. Lights turn on when you flip the switch. That’s where AI is going. The “AI-powered” badge will disappear because it would be like “electricity-powered.” AI's next wave will get out of the way and make you feel more capable: technology made for humans. The AI era will end the way the best eras end: by becoming so normal no one calls it an era anymore.

Desperate Kremlin Strips Air Defense Weapons From Far North To Moscow

Russia is stripping air defenses from other vulnerable parts of the country where it either has strategic bases or military manufacturing in order to try to protect Moscow, St Petersburg and other more southern or western regions which are suffering from relentless Ukrainian drone attacks. 

Russia's far north is reportedly the area most affected by the transfer of air defense weaponry and personnel. JL

Amos Chapple and Mark Krutov report in RFL/RE:

Key military sites in Russia’s far north appear to have been deprived of their air defense assets, recent satellite images show, as the Kremlin attempts to counter an increasingly damaging Ukrainian drone campaign targeting sites elsewhere in the country. The disappearance of many air defense assets from Russia’s far north represents “a growing mismatch between the targets Russia must protect and its available launchers, interceptors, and trained personnel.” As air defense systems disappear from the far north, others have appeared alongside more likely targets for Ukraine’s drone attacks.

Ukraine Ground Drone Use Up 122% As Gray Zone Gets More Lethal

The significance of this is not only that Ukraine sees the need to deploy so many more ground drones, but that it has the ability to do so effectively in a relatively short period of time. JL

Matthew Loh reports in Business Insider:

In the first month of summer, the use of ground drones increased by 18.6% compared to May, and by 122% compared to January. Ukraine's forces conducted over 16,000 missions with ground drones in June alone, more than double its January tally. One of Ukraine's solutions to preserve its already stretched troops is to flood these battlefield supply routes with ground drones instead — often wheeled or tracked buggies laden with food, ammo, and water. Over the last two months, Ukrainian units have also been converting aerial bomber, attack, and surveillance drones to carry supplies 

Russian Air Defense Is In "Catastrophic State" As Ukraine Targets Kremlin's Economy

Ukraine's relentless targeting of Russian air defense assets is having a measurable impact on the larger strategic goal of weakening the Kremlin's military-industrial complex.

The result is that Ukraine is able to execute its plan to systematically destroy individual categories of the Russian economy because the Kremlin military is unable to protect them. JL

Mirek Toda reports in The EU Observer:

Serious changes in the war are linked to several factors. The first is the exhaustion of Russian forces. Ukraine has managed to wear them down to a level where the Russian army is fighting mainly with its infantry. Ukraine's a technological edge is linked to scaling impact on Russian logistics. The Russians are losing the ability to defend themselves effectively. In some sectors, such as air defense, we can speak of a crisis in Russian capabilities Ukraine's strategy consists of the gradual destruction of individual categories of Russian industry – oil refining, the military‑industrial sector, chemicals – as well as in targeting Russia’s scientific base, especially research institutes where new types of weapons and military technologies are developed.

First US-Made Autonomous Ground Drones Are Deployed By Ukrainian Forces

Much has been written about Ukraine's impressive advances in developing aerial, naval and ground drones. But it may be that the US and European military-industrial base is beginning to create useful versions of their own. 

More than 100 US-built ground drones used primarily for logistics and casualty evacuation have been deployed for nine months now by Ukrainian forces under combat conditions. They have proven to be effective. The Ukrainians need them to be less expensive, due, in part, to the cost of inevitable combat-related losses, but they have otherwise proved their worth. JL

Tim Fernholz reports in Tech Crunch:

More than 100 US-made self-driving ATVs have been deployed in conflict zones in Ukraine for the past nine months, the largest deployment of autonomous ground vehicles in combat by a U.S. defense tech company. Forterra's Lancer, based on Polaris ATVs, is equipped with a custom-built sensor and compute stack, are gas-powered and can carry 750 kilograms of cargo. “This UGV for logistics is important in Ukraine,” because it can carry three times more than Ukrainian models. Forterra has learned useful lessons about electronic warfare, updating software from afar, how to maneuver in challenging conditions, and ensuring vehicles don’t break down. One challenge issued by the Ukrainians: Make it cheaper.