Putin Hometown St Petersburg Struck On First Day Of Conference He Is Hosting

Message from Kyiv delivered. JL

Elmira Aliieva reports in NBC News:

Ukraine launched hundreds of drones at Russian targets early Wednesday, sending black smoke rising above St. Petersburg just as the event dubbed “Putin’s Davos” was due to get underway in the city. The attack on President Vladimir Putin’s hometown, which hosts the flagship annual economic forum, was the latest signal from Kyiv that it can strike deep inside enemy territory and embarrass the Kremlin. Emergency crews were responding to the attacks and assessing damage, St. Petersburg Mayor Alexander Beglov said. Kyiv appeared to be sending a message, targeting the city hosting one of the Kremlin’s most important international events.

Ukraine Is Now Talking About Winning, Not Just Surviving

The Ukrainians are beginning to dare to believe. Not that they will survive, which now seems assured, but that they may prevail. In fact, in some sectors of the Ukrainian government, the biggest concern is that Ukraine's allies will become overconfident and expect victory too soon. 

The strategic challenge on which Ukraine is focusing is not just a cessation of hostilities, but that Russia be left too weak to contemplate any war again soon. JL

Patrick Tucker reports in Defense One:

A growing number of European officials are saying what four years ago was unthinkable: Ukraine isn’t just surviving its war with Russia, it is thriving and may be on a path to victory. Just as important as new drone tech are new tactics. Given latitude to experiment, Ukrainian fighters have developed robot-forward infantry concepts, like combined-arms attacks by airborne and ground systems. Ukraine is more willing than Russia to rebuild its doctrine, acquisition, and supply systems around autonomous warfare. “All the systems are being linked with each other and with people” to create a distributed network at various locations to be activated when needed. "One day we will have just 10 guys responsible for approving interception automatically to the target.” (But) for Ukraine, victory will require more than cessation of hostilities. The invading country must be left “much weaker.”

Drunk, Unconscious Russian Troops Enable Ukraine To Collapse Zaporizhzhia Flank

The cascading elements of this catastrophe for Russia only get more amazing. First Russian troops in a forward position drink themselves to unconsciousness - some, literally, to death - and they are undiscovered by their commanders for almost a week. Then, talk about it on Russian comms is intercepted by Ukrainian forces, who investigate, probe - and launch an attack to take advantage, which may threaten the collapse of the entire Russian flank in Zaporizhzhia oblast.

That Russian troops would be so hopeless and forlorn is, perhaps, not surprising. But the degree of leadership failure, indiscipline and incompetence is a telling indication of why the Kremlin is now losing ground in Ukraine. JL

RFU News reports:

In Zaporizhzhia oblast, dozens of Russian soldiers couldn’t take it anymore and literally drank themselves to death at the frontline. Ukrainian intelligence intercepted a radio call in which Russian troops discussed a mass alcohol poisoning in the sector. Ten bodies were discovered at an observation post in Kamianske after the troops there had drunk themselves to death. The dead soldiers were not collected for six days, indicating a lack of command awareness. Ukrainian drones then destroyed a Russian site for ammunition and drones leaving Russian troops without drone coverage. Ukraine launched attacks on the weakened Russian positions toward Stepove to further isolate Stepnohirsk, pushed back the Russian flank, and now threatening to collapse the Russian flank.

Anthropic Filing Before OpenAI For IPO Is Financially Significant

In the IPO race, being first matters. A lot. And being second matters, too, just not in a positive way. 

As Anthropic has filed for its IPO ahead of OpenAI, the financial impact may be significant because economic history demonstrates that the first to file - assuming they are well-managed, and Anthropic is considered the better-run enterprise - is then in the best position to take advantage of the money and talent flowing into the market. Companies filing later don't perform as well as their predecessors. This situation is especially acute now because SpaceX, which is not a pure AI company and has a plethora of well-known leadership and performance challenges, is going to market before the others in this latest generation of tech companies. Despite that, it will raise a huge amount of money. The issue is not that SpaceX is first, but that whoever is third will struggle on a relative basis. That is why Anthropic's filing before OpenAI matters. And don't be surprised if OpenAI tries to jump the queue. JL

Asa Fitch, Kate Clark and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Anthropic, recently valued at nearly $1 trillion, has filed confidentially for an initial public offering. Banks have told Anthropic and OpenAI that whoever makes it to market first will define the new industry and have first dibs on the large pools of cash eager to back new AI companies. There are clear advantages to being first. As importantly, there are major disadvantages in being second. Research has shown that IPOs come in industry clusters, and that companies listing later in a cycle don’t perform as well. That stands to reason, given that higher-quality companies with deeper moats tend to go public early, triggering a barrage of followers that might not be as strong. And even in a hot market, there isn’t an infinite amount of money to go around. “SpaceX (IPO next week) is going to consume a ton of capital, and the guy that goes second is going to have a better position than the guy that goes third.”

Putin - and Putinism - Have No Good Way Out of His War

There is a delicious irony in watching

Vladimir Putin, the ultimate authoritarian, hoisted on his own hubris. In the fifth year of a war he started, assured - at least in his own mind - of a quick victory, he now finds not only his own rule, but the system he installed and runs with an iron fist threatened by the failure of the military he thought would enforce his will. 

While there appears to be no imminent downfall in the offing, seeing what happened to his putative allies in Syria and Venezuela suggests that, like a burning building, regimes may take years to weaken, then collapse all at once. He has no good options for exiting Ukraine that do not result in his own demise. JL

Michael Kimmidge comments in the New York Times:

Perpetuating a war is not the same as winning one. Mr. Putin has few escalatory tools left to change the dynamic. Nor can he simply withdraw from Ukraine. Were Russia to accept a settlement along the current line of contact, he would have little to show for his efforts. As a political survivor he understands that if he were to present such a small prize to Russians, it would be an admission of the war’s senselessness. The poor quality of his strategic thinking and his hubris could become a political factor. Russia’s president has shown himself to be a mediocre head of state. With each Ukrainian strike on Russian territory, the war is eroding the well-being of Russian citizens.

Kremlin's Forces Lost Ground Again In May As Ukraine Gains More Than Russians

For the first time in three years, Ukrainian forces gained more territory than did the Russians in May. This is significant because the amount of Russian advance has been decreasing for several months, but for the Ukrainians to now surpass the Russians suggests that the trend is systemic, not just episodic, and may reveal a long-term change in the countries' relative military capabilities and strategic fortunes. 

The implication is that Ukraine's three-pronged effort to target Kremlin assets at the front, in the mid-range just behind it and at longer ranges inside Russia are having a cascading, and perhaps irreversible, military and economic impact. JL 

Jimmy Rushton and Asami Terajima report in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine  has gained more territory than Russia occupied over the same period in May, pushing overall Russian advances into the negative for the first time since 2023. "This is the first month in recent years after the 'Counteroffensive 2023' when the increase in the occupied territory for the Russians became negative. Russia typically advances faster in the late spring-fall, but we aren't seeing an increase in the rate of advance. It is important because the seasons have already changed and Russian advances have not increased." The reverses Russia suffered came despite a significant increase in Russian assault actions, which jumped up by 37.5% in May.

Russian Forces Cleared From Positions By Ukrainian Ground Drone

Russian troops who infiltrated the Kharkiv oblast village of Novoplatonivka were driven out - and the village cleared - by Ukraine's 115th Mechanized Brigade, which used a ground drone for the task. 

Such UGVs have now assaulted entrenched Russian units, captured Russian soldiers and defended Ukrainian positions - all without infantry being exposed. There have not, so far, been any reports of the Russians having similar success. JL

Vlad Litnaroych reports in Untied 24 and Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukrainian troops from the 115th Mechanized Brigade used a ground drone to clear Russian troops from Novoplatonivka in Kharkiv oblast. The operation came after Russian sources had claimed the “capture” of Novoplatonivka. Those reports collapsed once again under battlefield reality and new military technology. To clear the area of infiltrated Russian forces, a strike-and-search group from the 115th Brigade first tested the combat module of the ground-based robotic system at a training ground. "The mopping-up of the settlement was carried out in a precise, coordinated manner. The ground-based robotic system provided reliable fire support, allowing the group to successfully complete the mission."