Russian Prison Service Admits 40% Inmate Drop Due To Ukraine War Demand

Russia's prison population has dropped by 40% due to forced conscription into the armed forces for service in Ukraine, a total of almost 200,000 convicts or people in pre-trial detention. 

Most convicts are given a choice of serving in Ukraine and having their record expunged, assuming they survive, versus continuing their sentence. Casualty rates among convict battalions in Ukraine are among the highest in the Russian military. There is also a shortage of prison guards as most have been conscripted into the army. JL

Novaya Gazeta reports:

The number of inmates in Russian penal colonies and pre-trial detention centres had fallen from 465,000 in late 2021 to 282,000, a drop of nearly 40%. The Federal Penitentiary Service Director acknowledged that “recent efforts to recruit contract personnel for the Russian Armed Forces” had had a “particular effect” on the fall in inmate numbers. Convicts are given minimal training before being sent to fight in Storm Z units deployed on the most exposed parts of the front and suffer the heaviest casualties. In March, 37% of positions in Russia’s prisons were vacant. Some reports note 90 Russian prisons have closed since the war began.

Frontline Ukrainian Kill Zone Is Now 25 KM On Each Side of Line

Russian forces are feeling the effects of Ukraine's expanded kill zone on both sides of the front line. 

Ukrainian forces report an increase in Russian POWs as more Russians surrender due to fear of drone attacks and a related lack of supplies. Ukraine's quantitative strategy is relentless and increasingly lethal. JL

Iryna Levitska reports in Ukraine Pravda:

The kill zone has reached 25 km on both sides of the front line, forming a gray zone.  The concentration of systems regularly delivering strikes at that depth on both sides is high enough for this corridor to be considered dangerous for unhindered and repeat movement, even for military personnel carrying out combat tasks." It is based on the concept of a drone warfare "ecosystem", which Ukrainians refer to as a "borsch recipe". It consists of units capable of conducting autonomous combat operations with a combination of FPV drone crews, bomber drones, recon units, electronic warfare and intelligence systems, logistics and remote mining capabilities. The assessment is based on data from a situational awareness system that shows "the depth of regular sorties and successful strikes."

Humiliated Putin Targets Civilian Homes As Ukraine Targets Russian Industries

Humiliated by the pathetically reduced scale of his latest 'victory' parade as well as the necessity of having to ask Trump to intervene with Zelensky on his behalf to prevent attacks on Red Square during the event, Putin evidently decided he needed to lash out after the fact by targeting a number of civilian apartment buildings across Ukraine. A number of men, women and children were killed and some buildings were damaged, but this latest terror attack has had no more effect on Ukraine's determination than did such previous war crimes. 

Ukraine, as is its strategy, then retaliated by targeting Russian refineries, ammunition plants and military airfields. It is not hard to guess which series of attacks will be more impactful. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Humiliated by his short May 9 parade with no military equipment, for which Putin had to beg Trump to intercede on his behalf with Zelensky to even let the parade go ahead, Putin then lashed out with one of the largest terror attacks of the war against Ukraine. From May 13-15, the Russians sent 1567 drones to attack Kyiv and other cities. The Ukrainians did a solid job of defending themselves, shooting down 95% of the drones and 41 of 56 missiles. (But) even this interception rate meant they did deadly damage. After the Russian attacks were over, the Ukrainians launched a response hitting strategic targets - refineries, ammunition plants, airfields. The Ukrainian attacks will be more important in shaping the course of the war. Russian civilian attacks are not cracking Ukrainian resistance and might strengthen it. Fighting smart is better than fighting brutally.

Russian Command Caught Lying To Putin About Progress As Ukraine Stymies Drive

As Ukrainian forces have largely evicted organized Russian units from Kupiansk and continue to hold the fortress belt line against Russian offensive operations, independent observers have publicly contradicted the Russian High Command's report to Putin that they are advancing. 

Time-stamped video and other confirmable data show that the Russians are again taking significantly heavy casualties without being able to make discernable gains. JL

Alex Stezhensky reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

Russia has been unable or unwilling to commit forces and equipment needed to repel Ukrainian counterattacks and conduct offensive operations large enough to secure tactically significant gains near Kupyansk. Russia's military command has made false claims about the battlefield situation for the fifth straight month but ISW found no evidence that Russian troops hold positions in Kupyansk and that only a few Russian infiltrators remain. They also found no evidence that Russian forces hold positions in Velyka Shapkivka, Shykivka, Kutkivka or Lyman. Instead, the evidence shows Russian forces have entered only 6.5% of Kutkivka, 0.06% of Lyman and are at least 2 kilometers from Shykivka and 4 kilometers from Velyka Shapkivka.

For !st Time Since 2022, Russians More Concerned About Strikes On Russia Than War At Front

There are two interesting aspects to this poll result. The first is that ordinary Russians are now more concerned about Ukrainian attacks on Russia than they are about news from fighting at the front, suggesting that they know the war is stalled and that their own safety is now at risk.

But perhaps as or more importantly, the question is why the Kremlin has released these results, whose dissemination it controls. The logical answer may be that Putin is starting to prepare his country for the end of the war and wants all parties to recognize that, if he does choose to stop it, he is doing so because of public sentiment, which is intended to absolve him of responsibility as it can be blamed on European and/or American 'interference' that undermined Russian war efforts. JL

Tim Zadorozhnyy reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia have begun to concern Russians more than developments on the front lines, according to a poll published on May 15 by the Kremlin-controlled Public Opinion Foundation. Respondents most frequently mentioned attacks on major Russian cities, drone strikes, attacks on oil refineries, and a drone attack on the Russian city of Yekaterinburg, almost 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) from the nearest Ukrainian border. The survey also showed growing public anxiety inside Russia as the share of respondents who said people around them were feeling anxious rose to 50%, amid internet restrictions and renewed discussion about a possible mobilization.

Ukraine Retakes 2nd Town Near Kupiansk As Russia's Fortress Belt Drive Stalls

Ukrainian forces are regaining territory at the northern end of the Fortress Belt as Russia's offensive along that defensive position continues to falter. 

The reason for this, as in Zaporizhzhia earlier in the spring, is that the Russians no longer have sufficient troops to press everywhere. They must pick their spots carefully. Since their options are fewer and easier to ascertain, the Ukrainians are better able to identify weak points and exploit them. JL 

Yuri Zoria reports:

Ukraine's 129th Heavy Mechanized Brigade liberated Odradne in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast. The brigade pushed Russian forces from the village and surrounding terrain near Kupiansk. Russia had occupied Odradne since 22 November 2025. Ukraine recovered 22 km², including the village, with 56 Russian troops killed in the operation. Assault groups, drone operators, and artillery worked together to clear fortified Russian positions. Russia's push on Kupiansk from the north has been losing effectiveness as Ukrainian forces advanced toward Sloviansk. Moscow's spring-summer offensive has yet to break through Ukraine's Fortress Belt. Now Ukrainian units are retaking ground at the northern end of the line, where Moscow has tried and failed to break through for more than three years

Why Drones Are Replacing Ukraine's World-Class Snipers

A Ukrainian sniper holds the world distance record for hitting a Russian officer 2 1/2 miles away. Ukraine still employs snipers, but their role has been largely supplanted by drones which can spot targets further away due to the height at which they operate, move faster to close on the target - and can hit it - or him - with a warhead bigger than a bullet. And if the intended target moves, a drone can turn corners, dive into bunkers or up stairs to find its man, unlike a bullet. 

The reality is also that it takes less time to train a skilled drone pilot than it does a sniper - and on the modern battlefield in Ukraine, they tend to live longer. JL

Alistair MacDonald and Ievgenia Sivorka report in the Wall Street Journal:

A Ukrainian special-forces sniper claimed a world record in 2023 with a shot that hit a Russian officer 2½ miles away. These days Vyacheslav Kovalskiy is supporting drone pilots. He hasn’t been out to shoot in more than a year and a half.  Unmanned vehicles are particularly suited to the sniper’s main tasks of reconnaissance and targeted killing. Their advantages include their bigger visual range, maneuverability and expendability: a sniper can’t match the bird’s-eye view of a drone or the speed at which it can move. Drones, unlike bullets, can turn corners. And a drone’s explosive warhead can do more damage. Ukraine still uses snipers but they are being used less. Many snipers, like Kovalskiy, believe the era of sniping has passed. “Drones are just more effective and cost less.”