Trump's Russian Diesel Import Scheme Falters As Ships Are Diverted Away From US

Having been threatened with legal and significant financial penalties if they attempt to unload Russian diesel fuel, 

port operators and fuel brokers have recommended that the Russian ships change course for destinations away from the US.

All three of the tankers known to be heading to the US under the ostensible Trump plan have thus now changed their destination for Brazil, the Mediterranean or other locales. JL

David McHugh and Paul Wiseman report in PBS:

President Donald Trump's plan to allow imports of Russian diesel faltered this week after state and federal officials warned that handling any shipments could bring legal consequences as tankers bound for the United States changed course. The arrangement has yet to produce a confirmed U.S. delivery. Analysts said the imports were unlikely to do much to lower U.S. diesel prices, which have reached record highs during the U.S. war with Iran. Two sanctioned tankers that departed from the Baltic last month originally declared their destinations as the U.S. East Coast. As of Thursday, both had changed course, one toward Brazil and the other to the Mediterranean. A third vessel changed its destination from New York to "for orders." New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill advised port and terminal operators in her state to turn away ships carrying the fuel, warning that "any effort to profit from the illegal trade in Russian fuel will be met with harsh penalties."

All-Robot Ukraine Ground Assault In Kharkiv Oblast Largest of War So Far

In northern Kharkiv oblast this past week, Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade launched the largest all robot attack of the war on Russian positions.

The Ukrainian assault involved 28 unmanned ground vehicles of various types. And while it is not clear that the attack took the Russian defenses, it could be seen as a test of both the robots and the command systems that direct them with the intent being of trying these attacks more frequently in the future with even greater numbers of robots. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

A recent all-robot assault carried out by the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade on 30 October was the biggest confirmed attack by unmanned ground vehicles so far in the war: no fewer than 28 UGVs of all kinds rolled across the gray zone near the village of Druzheliubivka in northern Ukraine's Kharkiv Oblast. The attack  involved eight self-exploding UGVs plus another 20 UGVs with handheld weapons: 18 with pairs of single-round grenade launchers and two with automatic grenade launchers firing more but smaller rounds. The Russians posted a video depicting FPV attacks on the approaching Ukrainian UGVs. The robot itself is just the visible part of a complex system. The radio networks and other systems connecting the robots to their distant operators are just as important as the robots themselves. It's Ukraine's mastery of these command systems that guarantees more all-robot assaults are coming.

Anthropic's $1.5 Trillion Valuation Now Drawing Doubts From Investors

Elections have consequences - and so do market crashes. With both events having happened this week, investors are now casting doubt on Anthropic's putative IPO valuation at $1,5 trillion, with many saying it is more likely to come in at $1 trillion. 

Anthropic could choose to raise less money or even delay the offering, but it is not likely that market conditions are going to improve. The question now is whether AI's high water mark has already been reached or whether it still has some room to run. JL

Corrie Driebusch and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Major investors are increasingly skeptical Anthropic’s initial public offering can proceed at the expected valuation of $1.5 trillion after a deep market selloff tied to the unwinding of artificial-intelligence related bets. Three major investors who plan to participate in the IPO say the valuation will likely need to come down, with one saying it could be closer to $1 trillion. The company could decide to raise less money than anticipated, perhaps $80 billion, said one investor who plans to participate in the IPO. That same investor hopes for the company to have well over $200 billion on its balance sheet post-IPO. Anthropic had $146.6 billion cash on hand as of Sept. 30. Another investor who plans to participate wondered if Anthropic might delay its offering to wait for more favorable conditions. Even before Thursday’s rout, investor enthusiasm had been waning for AI.

Ukraine Expands Lyman Counteroffensive To Kharkhiv Oblast

Add northern Kharkiv oblast to the sectors where Ukrainian forces have thwarted Russian advance attempts and have begun counterattacking. JL

Mariia Kritsak reports in Gwara Media:

Ukrainian have expanded the Lyman counteroffensive to the Borova direction to push Russian forces back away from the Oskil River and to alleviate pressure on the town of Borova from the north. After recapturing the village of Zelenyi Hai, Ukrainian assault groups also began pushing north by infiltrating Vyshneve village. Ukrainian forces have counterattacked northeast of Borova.

Russian Orikhiv Assault Decimated As Initiative Shifts To Ukraine Counterattacks

Russia's southern strategy, based on attacks towards Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia oblast has been derailed, as Ukrainian infantry and drone operators again isolated Russian assault forces by cutting off their reinforcements and supplies. 

This drained the Russian offensive of momentum as they could not assemble the necessary force for a breakthrough. Ukrainian counterattacks have now seized the initiative and are pushing the Russians back. JL

RFU News reports:

Ukraine achieved a significant success in Orikhiv, where Russian forces have been pushed out of the city after nearly three months of brutal fighting. The town anchors Ukraine’s defenses south of Zaporizhia. Ukrainian forces are now pressing southward along the same approaches used by Russian assault groups. Ukrainian drone operators played a decisive role, as they didn’t concentrate on the Russians already inside Orikhiv, but attacked the reinforcements attempting to reach them. As a result, the Russian offensive began losing momentum, and despite continued attempts to reinforce, repeated casualties reduced the ability to concentrate sufficient forces for a breakthrough. The initiative around Orikhiv has shifted toward Ukrainian counterattacks

Nasdaq Loses $2.5 Trillion In Wipe Out As "AI Trade" Cracks

This time is different, all right, but not exactly in the way the Silicon Valley-AI hype machine meant. 

Like the blue tsunami that annihilated the Trump-MAGA coalition on Tuesday - and to which it is connected - the equity market wipe out had many different causes, none of which should have come as a surprise as they had been detailed for months: unrealistic financial projections, lack of discernible operating and economic improvements, slowing corporate uptake, dramatic increases in debt, refusal to acknowledge practical impediments to data center buildouts (aside from the rising political opposition) and the growing dependence of the economy and the markets on a shrinking core of AI companies. Markets are up slightly this morning, so this may either be a one-day freakout or a harbinger of more fundamental change, but either way, it is another warning that the prolonged AI trade is not likely to continue in the same way. JL 

David Uberti and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Thursday's stock-market wipeout left few corners of the tech sector unscathed. Asian chip makers, Texas power producers, New Jersey cloud-computing providers, Silicon Valley software makers, contractors and data-center developers all tumbled, in a selloff that appeared to feed on itself. Traders making highly leveraged bets got crushed, but so did those who doubted a recent pullback in AI stocks would get worse. It did, from the opening bell. cracks began to show in risky corners of the AI trade where companies amassed huge piles of debt to grow. Underwhelming earnings reports by Amazon and Alphabet sent tremors across trading desks. Then, the power shift in Washington, as well as the election of governors who promised data-center restrictions, exposed the stock market’s fragility. The yearslong bull market left the major U.S. benchmark indexes top-heavy and tech-dependent. The unwind of bullish bets using borrowed money compounded the pressure. 

decrease; down pointing triangleand Alphabet GOOGL -2.20%decrease; down pointing triangle sent tremors across trading desks.the power shift in Washington, as well as the election of several governors who have promised data-center restrictions, exposed the stock market’s fragility. The yearslong bull market left the major U.S. benchmark indexes top-heavy and tech-dependent.

Russia's Undertrained and Manned Motor Rifle Brigades Bear Brunt of Losses

The core of the Russian army is made up of Motor Rifle Brigades - motorized infantry. 

And they are being decimated by ineffective, often suicidal tactics, poor training, inadequate equipment and corrupt officers. Their casualties are staggering. JL

Amarsanaa Jegal reports in Medium:

"In the fifth year of the Russia–Ukraine war, the Russian force suffering the heaviest losses is its infantry. Motor rifle brigades, which bear the main burden of the Russian's offensive operations, are losing enormous numbers of soldiers.” The list of the heaviest losses is headed by the 15th Motor Rifle Brigade. Reports suggest its soldiers suffer not only in frontline combat but also as a result of violence, intimidation and demands for money by their commanders. The 30th Motor Rifle Brigade, based in Samara, came second. All five of the motor rifle brigades with the highest losses took part in the battle for Avdiivka, where Russia lost 16,000 men. The poor training of Russian motor rifle units had been highlighted early in the war.