Putin Is Losing His War Against Ukraine Across Every Measurable Dimension

Militarily, economically, strategically, reputationally...by every relevant measure of success, Putin and Russia are now losing the war with Ukraine. 

Trump's admiration for him remains a strategic asset - perhaps his only other being Xi's belief that China must support Russia to further its own ambitions. But even Trump and Xi see the current failure and looming exposure. The only question now is whether Putin can devise an end to the war that does not also entail an end to his power and, probably, his life. JL

Mick Ryan reports in the Lowy Institute:

Putin, a leader who expected to take Kyiv in days, and who four years on is losing troops he cannot replace while his economy stalls and his standing erodes, is managing a slow defeat. On the battlefield, the momentum as moved in Ukraine's favor. In an age of open-source transparency, where anyone can follow the front line as well as nightly drone exchanges, it is hard to sell a story of advance when the data shows stagnation and constant long-range strikes by Ukraine. Russia’s disinformation machine is still busy, but it finds less purchase. Mass is not strength. Russia brought more people and more tanks but could not learn and adapt as fast as Ukraine, while Ukraine’s edge has come from bottom-up innovation and the speed with which a good idea reaches the front. Institutional adaptability has been the decisive military quality of this war.

AI Is Making Ukraine Anti-Drone Systems Faster, More Accurate and Deadlier

The goal in deploying autonomous systems is to identify and destroy Russian drones (or vehicles and soldiers) faster and with greater accuracy while reducing the risk to Ukraine's human soldiers.

Ukraine's military, with the help of its buoyant tech sector, is now deploying drones that can do that at scale. As a result, Ukraine has eliminated dozens of Russian drones with AI-driven systems and expects that number to increase exponentially. JL

Maria Varenikova reports in the New York Times:

Earlier in the war, Ukraine relied on heavy machine guns, electronic warfare and missiles to bring down Shaheds. Last August, the Ukrainian military began to deploy interceptor drones piloted by humans. Now, Ukrainian interceptors have made dozens of A.I.-assisted strikes on Shahed-type drones since November. A.I. is used in terminal guidance systems, in which a weapon locks onto a target and completes its strike without further human intervention. A.I. systems can autonomously identify enemy vehicles. Some can single out enemy soldiers. The goal of the A.I.-driven system is to significantly shorten the time needed to detect and track enemy drones. With even more autonomy, interceptors could launch automatically after radar detects an attack.

Russian Mala Tomachka Motorbike Attack Smashed Before Ukraine Lines Reached

Mala Tomachka has become the latest addition to the honor roll of legendary Ukrainian battles: Kyiv, Mariupol, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk et al. 

A small settlement in Zaporizhzhia oblast, it has held out against Russian attacks for 1,500 days,; essentially since the Russians invaded. 

This latest defeated Russian assault is significant primarily - or perhaps only -  because it is emblematic of the way the war is going. The Kremlin orders a fruitless assault which is annihilated before the troops even reach Ukrainian defensive positions. A waste of Russian men and resources. JL

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukraine's 118th Mechanised Brigade repelled a mechanised assault by Russian forces on Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Despite changing tactics and employing technical innovations, the Russians were defeated before they reached the settlement. The Russians deployed more than 30 motorcycles along three separate routes. The assault featured several innovations: some of the motorcycles were fitted with plough-like devices designed to clear minefields and several were equipped with mobile electronic warfare systems. (But), neither the timing nor the modifications helped. 26 Russian troops were killed, 10 were wounded and left behind, with Russian forces making no attempt to evacuate them. The Ukrainians destroyed 20 motorcycles and 10 all-terrain vehicles. The brigade reported no casualties among its own personnel. Mala Tokmachka has held out for 1,500 days.

Anthropic "Pauses" Planned Token-Based Billing For Claude Agent SDK

Nothing to see here, folks, just...AI firms beginning to respond to their market doing what markets do: responding to exorbitant price increases by cutting back usage and seeking lower cost alternatives like China's DeepSeek.

The AI market has been roiled this spring and early summer by the impact of token-based pricing subscriptions which have resulted in substantial - and many say, economically unsustainable - usage cost increases. So, while in this specific instance, Anthropic was reacting to an unexpected client workaround by applying third party tools, the reality is that costs are impacting AI growth. Anthropic, OpenAI et al, have begun to reap the returns of which their investors had dreamed, but it turns out these costs were so burdensome that their customers literally had no choice (blowing through an annual budget in four months...) but to seek alternatives. While some reversion to the mean had long been predicted, it was not supposed to happen this fast. The larger issue looming is whether the entire global socio-economic system is going to come to the same conclusion. JL

Kyle Orland reports in ars technica:

Last month Anthropic announced a billing change that would have substantially increased costs for heavy users of its automation-focused Claude Agent SDK. “Our subscriptions weren’t built for the usage patterns of third-party tools,” referring to automated agent harnesses like Openclaw not covered under regular plans. On Monday, though, Anthropic abruptly announced it had paused those pricing changes just as they were set to take effect. Anthropic gave power users a pricing reprieve. The sudden pullback on forcing API pricing comes just weeks after GitHub Copilot rolled out its own token-based billing changes, leading to sticker shock for many users who found themselves blowing past the new limits on their subscriptions. It also comes as Anthropic prepares for an IPO.

New Ukraine Weapons, Tactics Result In Russia Having Worst Year Since Invasion

New types of drones for varying distances and targets, new battle management systems to better coordinate attack or defense and - crucially - new organization of troops and units to bring maximum effectiveness to any point on the battlefield. 

All have contributed to Ukraine's success this year which an emerging consensus has agreed is Russia's worst year of the war since they started it. JL

Sinead Baker reports in Business Insider:

Russia is having its worst year since the invasion in 2022. Ukraine has been striking targets once treated as safe, and regaining ground. New tactics and drone tech have allowed it to build momentum. New drone types are allowing Ukraine to hit depots, vehicles, air defenses, and supply routes that support Russian troops at the front. The goal is to isolate the battlefield, making it harder for Russia to move troops and supplies where they are needed. Better planning and new systems mean Ukraine is better at using those weapons strategically rather than simply reacting to Russian assaults. Destruction of Russian logistics, depots, and other targets has increased fourfold. "Ukraine's actions are "actively challenging" the grinding nature of the war. "Ukraine has a unique opportunity to exploit its current initiative while Russian forces remain vulnerable."

Moscow, St Petersburg Forced To Limit Gas Sales After Ukraine Fuel Attacks

One of the Kremlin's goals in continuing to pursue the increasingly stymied invasion of Ukraine was to insulate the residents of its two most important cities, Moscow and St Petersburg, from the impact of the conflict. That is no longer possible due to Ukrainian long range drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure whose capacity has been significantly reduced. 

The implication is that, despite his disdain for public opinion, Putin must now at least pay attention to - if not yet worry about - the growing pressure that inconvenience combined with economic impact brings to support for his war. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

Following recent Ukrainian drone strikes on key oil facilities, Russian media reported some Tatneft-operated gas stations in Moscow limited sales of AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline to 20 liters (5 gallons) per customer and diesel fuel to 40 liters (10 gallons) per customer. Other major retailers imposed similar restrictions. Rosneft capped purchases at 90 liters (24 gallons) per vehicle or container, while Lukoil limited sales to 100 liters (26 gallons) per transaction. Similar measures were introduced at gas stations in St. Petersburg.

Ukraine Destroys Hiding Russian Armor Before It Can Launch Myrnorhad Attack

Throughout occupied Donetsk oblast, the Russians have been using abandoned coal mines as hiding places for their increasingly vulnerable armor. This was - once upon a time - a clever use of such cover. But not anymore. 

With the increased deployment of increasingly sophisticated drones and skillful drone pilots, Ukrainian forces were able to detect the presence of the armored personnel carriers intended for an assault in Myrnohrad (next to Pokrovsk) towards the fortress belt city of Kramotorsk. Virtually all of the Russian armor and a number of the troops servicing or preparing to attack in them were also eliminated. Which explains why the Russians still do not have a complete grip on Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk as well as a good chance of taking the fortress belt anytime soon. JL

Sania Kozatzkyi reports in Militarnyi, David Axe reports in Trench Art:

FPV drones from the Ukrainian 414th Unmanned Systems Brigade detected Russian forces staging up-armored MT-LB infantry carriers in a disused coal mine for an assault north of the ruins of Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian armor assigned to that assault toward Kramatorsk never left. The armored vehicles were detected and struck in the area of the Kapitalna Mine (formerly the Stakhanova Mine) in Myrnohrad. Within an hour, Ukrainian drone operators hit four MT-LB tracked armored infantry vehicles. In addition, six ATVs were destroyed on the mine’s grounds. A passenger vehicle used for the same purpose was also destroyed. The Russian army in Ukraine rarely deploys armored vehicles for direct assaults anymore. One pre-emptive Ukrainian drone raid is a healthy reminder why the Russians have held back their armor.