Ukraine Drones Now Inflict More Russian Losses Than All Other Weapons Combined

That Ukraine's drones are now inflicting more casualties than all other conventional weaons combined has significant implications for how war is fought - and how the resources to fight it are allocated. 

It means that budgets for conventional weapons are likely to be cut - and that those making their living from such sales, as well as those most comfortable with such weapons systems may no longer have as much of a role as they have had in the past, with all that implies for military and economic expenditures and political power. JL

Andrew Kramer reports in the New York Times:

Ukrainian drones now inflict 95% of casualties on Russian soldiers, far outperforming snipers, howitzers, tanks and all other conventional weapons combined. The kill zone in Ukraine is wider than the 18-mile or so range of standard 155-millimeter shells and the effective range of tank cannons. Contracts for such weapons and ammunition are fat to be trimmed from a drone-centered strategy. War is heading toward “the robotization of the front line” and remote piloting of drones that would remove soldiers from danger. A next stage would be autonomous systems attacking targets, evolving then into “autonomous drones fighting autonomous drones powered by AI.” If there is one group of people happy to have AI take their jobs, it is Ukrainian soldiers.

After Months of Failed Russian Attempts, Fortress Belt Remains Ukrainian

Despite months of attempted assaults on Ukraine's Fortress Belt, Russian forces have failed to take the barrier cities in front it, let alone threaten the Fortress cities themselves.

The Kremlin has resorted to claiming victories rather than actually achieving them, because that is the best it can do. JL

Yuri Zoria reports in the Euromaidan Press:

Russia is still unable to break into Sloviansk and the fortified towns shielding it, months into an offensive to seize the rest of eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast. Its troops keep leaning on guided bombs and small groups of infiltrating infantry, while Ukrainian forces counterattack and hunt the drone crews harassing their supply lines. Russian forces kept up offensive operations toward Sloviansk on 1 and 2 August without a confirmed advance, as Ukrainian units counterattacked. Ukrainian forces are striking Russian drone control points in the near rear south of Kostiantynivka, in part to protect their supply roads.

Russia's Summer Offensive "Failed To Make Any Operationally Significant Gains"

The Russian rate of advance for its spring-summer offensive is so low that it has to be measured in footpace, as opposed to measures by which modern war is typically fought. And, even by that count, Russia is suffering increasing casualties, with July being the highest loss rate Russia has suffered this year. Among other missed deadlines, the Russians have yet to take Kostiantynivka, despite repeated Kremlin claims that they have done so 

The Kremlin's forces have failed to make any operationally significant gains, which means that its troops are moving too slowly to achieve any of its stated objectives by the end of this calendar year. The implication is that despite the Kremlin's desperate claims, the Russians are, once again, incapable of delivering the results for which they wish. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

The Russian rate of advance in Ukraine remains low in the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, which has failed to make any operationally significant gains. The Russians suffered the highest casualty rate of 2026 in July, paying an increasingly high price for no increase in the rate of advance, which has not changed significantly since February 2026. Russia’s increased infiltrations have not resulted in the seizure of Kostyantynivka or achievement of operationally significant objectives. Continued Ukrainian counterattacks, Ukraine’s intermediate range strike campaign, and Ukrainian drone dominance continue to constrain Russia’s rate of advance and ability to field mechanized vehicles. Even the Kremlin’s most exaggerated claims do not have Russian forces advancing faster than footpace, a rate far slower than the Kremlin would need to collapse Ukrainian lines and seize areas Moscow aims to capture by the end of 2026.

AI Projections Require Unlikely Miracle On Capital Expenditures Vs Costs

The good news is that analysts and investors are actually running the numbers on AI companies' projections. The bad news is that what that math reveals does not stand scrutiny by sentient human beings. 

The core assumption is that the vast gap between capital expenditures and free cash flow will miraculously be derived from reductions in SG&A (general and administrative) expenses like sales teams, back offices, etc because, using that circular logic which abounds in tech, AI will save the day through reduced costs. The problem is that in the history of fast growth companies, such reductions have never happened before. And AI has yet to demonstrate that it can make such expenses disappear. This is just the latest data point in the AI reality check. It will not be the last. JL

Jonathan Weil reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Wall Street’s forecasts for Big Tech require a major leap of faith: that AI hyperscalers can boost revenue faster than the cost of running their businesses. The numbers look too good to be true. The bullish earnings require newfound operating efficiency even as they spend trillions of dollars in capex. Projections show each company’s expenses falling as a percent of revenue. Depreciation will soar because of the new buildings and equipment. Overhead shrinking as a share of revenue won’t be enough to bridge the gap. Implicit in the models is a belief that AI will unlock productivity gains for revenue to grow faster than overhead. But new business historically requires larger sales teams, customer support and admin. If AI fails to drive efficiencies, corporate expenses will scale with revenue, and margins won’t grow. “When growth is this fast, there’s strong correlation between SG&A and revenue. When depreciation increases, a direct offset through SG&A has never happened before.”

Putin's War: 'The Largest Self-Inflicted Defeat By a Major Power In the Modern Era'

The scale of Putin's miscalculation in choosing to invade Ukraine is becoming clearer by the day. 

In terms of military might, economic thrust and overall reputation as a nation with global standing as a power and a potential threat, Russia has been exposed as a fraud. It's armies, air force and navy have been embarrassed in their failure to perform against a much smaller, less well equipped enemy. It's weapons - once a key source of export revenues - are less effective than those of the west. It's inability to defend its infrastructure from Ukrainian drones has become a financial disaster. And its corruption, delusional self-worth and dependence on a smaller, backward nation like North Korea, as well as its fealty to China, of which it is now effectively a vassal state, means that Putin, for his own personal reasons, has sacrificed all that he and his predecessors had built and for which their people sacrificed so much. JL

Joseph Orefice reports in The Geopolitical Economist:

Measured against every one of its own stated objectives, Putin's 'special military operation' has failed, and the scale of that failure is massive. History will report this as the largest strategic miscalculation by a major power since the Second World War. Before 2022, the Russian military was widely feared as a juggernaut. Four years later, that reputation is spent. Putin’s war doubled the length of NATO’s direct land border with Russia, the precise outcome the invasion was meant to prevent created the most significant collateral damage Russia’s invasion produced. And Europe, long dependent on cheap Russian gas, spent the war severing that dependence, and has been rearming at a pace not seen since the Cold War, a larger, better-funded, more unified alliance pointed directly at Putin. It is the largest self-inflicted strategic defeat by a major power in the modern era.

The Reasons Why Russia Can't Stop Ukraine's Drone Attacks

There are many reasons why a technologically advanced and militarily powerful country like Russia cannot seem to stop Ukrainian drone attacks. 

First, the country is vast and there are not enough air defense systems to protect everything and everyone. Secondly, the Russian political and military tends to prefer assigning blame, thereby eliminating rivals, rather than rewarding success. Thirdly, having agreed to cede authority to the Kremlin, the Russian people do not yet see air defense as their responsibility. As a result, Ukraine's drones will continue to have success identifying and striking targets across Russia at will. JL

Elvira Bary reports in Medium:

Ukrainian drones are reaching deep into Russia and hitting the infrastructure that keeps the country moving. Russia calls itself a superpower. How is this possible? For centuries, Russia’s size was its best protection. Russia was too large to invade easily. But now look at the same map through a drone operator’s eyes. You see thousands of targets spread across enormous territory. Every target wants protection. But there are not enough systems. Secondly, Russia's military is strictly top-down, only requiring command and obedience. People first ask: who will be blamed? Drones move fast and require people in many places to make fast decisions with incomplete information. (But) the person making the decision often does not know whether the system will back him if something goes wrong. So he prefers to do nothing. 

Due To Heavy Losses in Northern Ukraine, Russian Army Misleads Kremlin

Desperate to claim they are making gains along the front this summer, the Russian command has issued a series of misleading reports of advances both to the media - and, according to independent analysts - the Kremlin. 

Objective reports indicate that Russian attacks on the northern Kursk and Kharkiv fronts have been repeatedly repulsed with heavy losses. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Ukraine's Border Guards eliminated seven Russian assault groups on the Kursk front. Russian forces sent the assault groups into battle one after another, but Ukrainian troops repelled each of them. Institute for the Study of War has reported that Russian military command is misleading the Kremlin about the scale of the occupying army's "successes" in northern Ukraine in order to reinforce a narrative of an active Russian offensive along the entire front line.