Ukrainian Battlefield Success Reflects Its Strength More Than Russian Weakness

Commentary on Russia's cascading setbacks in 2026 have focused primarily on its own missteps. But this ignores what may be the most important reason for the change in fortunes; Ukraine's growing strengths.

The Ukrainians drone performance, while obviously significant, has become almost a cliche. Behind it are a welter of other Ukrainian successes including war-experienced younger leadership, more accurate and lethal weapons, a resilient, determined military and an uncowed populace. Combined, they are on the cusp of creating a legend. JL

Peter Dickinson reports in The Atlantic Council:

The Russian army has failed to achieve any of the key objectives set at the start of the invasion. This underwhelming outcome reflects Ukrainian strength rather than Russian weakness. Ukraine’s success in stemming the tide of Russia’s invasion will be studied for decades. It is the collective achievement of a society that has mobilized to an unprecedented degree. Everyone has played their part, from the numbers of men and women in uniform, to the innovative Ukrainian defense tech industry. 

Since December, Putin's Army Has Not Been Able To Hold Ground In Ukraine

Ukrainian President Zelensky's letter to Putin suggesting they meet directly was rejected by the Russians. Clearly not surprised, Zelensky then went on to point out the Russian military's manifest failures, especially on the battlefield. The Kremlin forces' performance has become so underachieving that it can no longer hold ground against counterattacking Ukrainian troops. Much of the territory the Russians ostensibly 'occupy' is, in fact, merely infiltrated and cannot be contested by the Russians when Ukraine attacks. 

Ballistic terror attacks against civilian targets are Russia's last throw of the military dice "the last Russian argument in the war." The Ukrainians went on to mock Putin, saying "you wont have enough money and political power to continue buying the loyalty of Russians." JL

John Psaropoulos reports in Al Jazeera:

Ukraine's tactcs seem to be winning. Battlefield analysts have come to the conclusion that the Ukrainians have forced the Russian army to a standstill. Many of the areas previously thought to be Russian-controlled were merely infiltrated and contested. “There are no safe roads for Russia in the south and east of our country. You hope that ballistics will do for you what everything else has failed to do. Ballistics is the last Russian argument in the war. Your resources are significantly dwindling,” Zelenskyy wrote. “You won’t have enough money and political power to continue buying the loyalty of Russians, as you’ve been doing for 26 years.”

How One Company Created 13 New Types of Jobs Because of AI

Most of the commentary about AI and jobs has had to do with which ones and how many will be eliminated. But as with all new technologies, there has also been the expectation that some new, unanticipated roles will be created. 

Some of those new positions are starting to appear. Unsurprisingly, many are designed to help customers implement tools to use the new technology. And others to help internal employees deploy it more productively. It would be prudent to assume that many of these roles will be transitional, fading away as growing numbers of people become more competent in evaluating, designing and implementing AI. A percentage will probably become permanent in order to keep improving productivity and customer satisfaction. The larger point is that there will be a need for new AI-related skills. JL

Kalley Huang reports in the New York Times:

Box posted a new job: senior director of A.I., data and integration, to help it wire together its internal systems and data. The job was one of 13 new roles Box has created because of A.I., with titles like A.I. architect, A.I. solutions manager, A.I. platform leader and forward deployed engineers, who help customers which dont have the technical know-how to use AI. Another is A.I. business automation engineer, to help colleagues use A.I. more productively. It also created new roles for evaluating A.I. models. As A.I. models advance, the way they answer questions or are structured can change. That means customers need help using new models. With the proliferation of these positions, Box expects to have more than 3,000 employees next year, up from 2,900 at the this year. “We are selling A.I. to our customers, causing us to need more people, and as a user of A.I., we’re getting new forms of productivity that’s also causing us to hire.”

Why, Despite Launching 37% More Attacks In May, Russia Still Lost Ground

Russian forces have begun  to lost the battlefield initiative, as Ukrainian troops launch as many, or more, assaults. But before this change began, Russia increased its number of attacks by over one-third in May. The problem was, that despite the rise, they still lost territory compared to the Ukrainians.

The reasons appear to be better commanders at more senior levels as more young leaders who have fought for the past four years begin to move up the ranks; the increasing effectiveness - accuracy and lethality - of Ukraine's drone forces; and the new focus on cutting Russian logistics from 50 to 200 miles from the front, which has made it difficult, if not impossible, for the Russians to organize and then initiate attacks. JL

Matthew Loh reports in Business Insider:

Despite Russia launching more frequent attacks on Ukrainian positions, with over 7,000 recorded assaults in May amounting to a 37.5% monthly increase, Russia suffered a net monthly territorial loss for the first time since 2023, when Kyiv launched its major counterpush. The Kremlin's losses were attributed to Ukraine putting capable commanders in higher positions under the new Ukrainian defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, who's been running the war effort since January. Some of Ukraine's success is also due to Kyiv conducting more mid-range drone strikes, at distances of about 30 to 50 miles, on Russian logistics hubs and operations. 

Ukraine Establishes Fire Control Over Russian-Occupied Donetsk Airport

As part of its expanding 'logistics lockdown' of Russian capabilities, Ukraine's drone forces have now established fire control over the occupied Donetsk airport, which has been turned by the Russians into a logistics hub and drone launch site. 

By doing so, the Ukrainians have further degraded Russia's ability to maintain its army in the field, contributing to the relative loss of tactical initiative at the front. JL

Stanislav Pohorilov reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (14th Regiment) has taken Donetsk airport under fire control, destroying Shahed loitering munition launchers, construction cranes, vehicles and supply depots at the facility in the first operation of its kind. "The occupiers turned Donetsk airport into a military logistics hub and a launch platform for Shahed attack drones. Our forces are systematically burning enemy infrastructure, launch systems, vehicles and crews, degrading the airport and making operations impossible."

Half Of Frontline Combat Now From Ukraine Attacks As Russia Loses Tactical Initiative

Ukrainians and their supporters have become inured over the past few years to daily reports about Ukrainian forces responding to Russian attacks.

So it is extremely significant that analyses now indicate as many as half of all combat between the Ukraine and Russia along the front over the past month have been Ukrainian attacks on Russian forces. And that the trend is growing to such an extent that Ukrainian-initiated operations may soon exceed Russians'. The implication is that Russia has lost the tactical initiative, which has been gained by Ukraine, meaning that Kyiv's forces control the pace, location and nature of the battle, applying it to their advantage and the Russians' disadvantage. JL

Oleksii Hetman comments in Ukrinform, David Axe reports:

The ratio of attack and counterattack in combat engagements indicates that Ukraine’s forces are gaining the tactical initiative from Russia which no longer has the most assault actions in its war on Ukraine. (And), the Russians are losing the momentum at the time of year they usually have the most momentum: springtime. "There were 300 engagements a few days ago: about 150 were Russian assaults and 150 were Ukrainian counterattacks. This ratio has grown to 50–50. Compared to March, when it was 30–70 in favor of Russian attacks, the situation has now equalized.” If this trend continues, Ukrainian counterattacks may soon exceed Russian assault activity.  

Companies Begin To Ration AI For Employees As Token Costs Skyrocket

As the financial and tech worlds contemplate their first trillionaire, cost seems like such a relative issue. 

But even OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman, no shrinking violet when it comes to extolling AI's virtues, is admitting that exponentially exploding token costs are becoming a problem. No one is yet willing to state that such eye-watering expenditures will slow demand for AI (Heaven Forefend!) but the implication is there, along with lingering concerns about measuring how token use contributes to business results. Expect to see an initial burst of explanatory bombast about 'efficiencies' followed by more serious attempts to somehow mitigate the cost impact without denying AI firms their massive payday. JL

Bradley Olson reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Costs are skyrocketing for tokens, the basic unit of measurement for AI computing, as AI model providers seek to balance supply, demand and manage their costs. Some enterprises report their AI spending double or triple. The shift to usage-based pricing has forced enterprise customers to reckon with consumption.  Corporate leaders are scrambling to bring down expenses by finding ways to ration AI use in their organizations and increase computing efficiency.  Microsoft limited access to an Anthropic program for employees who can use an internal coding assistant instead. Companies using advanced AI coding tools have found only 18% of spending on tokens translating into shipped coding products that reach real users so Salesforce introduced a system for tracking how token use contributes to positive business outcomes.