As Drone and Anti-Air Defenses Adapt, "War Will Be Won By Who Invests Smarter"

Drones are getting faster, while changing direction and tempo arrythmically to confuse Ukraine's anti-air defenders. 

But the Ukrainians are adapting by using machine guns with thermal screens and links to AI. The race is to decide who can invest smarter and faster to outwit the other. JL

Fermin Torrano reports in The Telegraph:

As Kyiv pushes for more Patriot missiles and advanced defence batteries,  soldiers are doing what billion-pound systems cannot: reacting in real time to Moscow’s main threat before they reach Ukraine’s cities. Drones can alter course and speed mid-flight, making them harder to shoot down. “Everyone is adapting in their own way. Russians modified the fuel tanks design, the motors, or paint the Shaheds black. And we have had thermal screens mounted on our machine guns. Sooner or later, these battles will be fought entirely in the air. The war will be won by whoever invests smarter."

AI Data Center Energy Demands Raising All Household Electric Bills

Demand for electric power is increasing exponentially, driven to a significant degree by the rise in data centers supporting the growth of AI.

The problem is that major utilities are not charging big users enough to cover the increased costs of building new facilities to generate more power. As a result, American households are seeing their electricity bills go up to cover the additional data center use. The question is how long this will be tolerated before consumers insist that wildly profitable tech companies pay their own way. JL

Ivan Penn reports in the New York Times:

Individuals and small business have been paying more for power in recent years, and their electricity rates may climb higher because the cost of power plants, transmission lines and other equipment that utilities need to serve data centers, factories and other large users of electricity is likely to spread to everybody who uses electricity. The money that large energy users pay to electric utilities is enough to cover the costs needed to serve them. The rest of the costs would be borne by other utility customers or the utility's shareholders. American homes that use a typical 1,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity a month paid, on average, about $164 in February, up more than $30 from five years ago.

How Putin's Behavior Vs EU Initiative Became Russian Diplomatic Defeat

The growing consensus is that Putin's refusal to appear at talks in Istanbul which he, himself, proposed, followed by the intransigent terms his junior-level delegation then presented now looks like a diplomatic defeat for Putin and Russia and a significant win for Zelensky, Ukraine and the EU. 

Leaders of the four leading European powers - France, Germany, the UK and Poland - already convinced of Putin's duplicity, met with Ukraine's Zelensky to plan the response to Trump's proposals and Putin's likely action. While meeting they called Trump personally on his cell phone to tell him they and Zelensky agreed to his terms. When Putin not only rejected them but failed to even show up, he looked disrespectful to Trump, reinforced popular perceptions of his untrustworthiness and elevated the importance of the EU leaders in Trump's eyes and in the process from which they had been largely blocked. So not only did Putin embarrass Trump, but he made his European adversaries look both more supportive of Trump and more important to the negotiations , a double defeat. JL

Bojan Pancevski and Alan Cullison report in the Wall Street Journal:

Friday’s meeting between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul was the culmination of a diplomatic plot by the leaders of France, Germany, Britain and Poland. They visited Zelensky in Kyiv, where they coached him on how to handle Trump’s unpredictability. The group then called Trump on his cellphone to inform him that Zelensky accepted his cease-fire proposals - and issued an ultimatum to Putin to accept a cease-fire or face sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas exports. Caught flat-footed, Putin proposed a summit in Istanbul which he then refused to attend. The EU initiative, convincing Trump that Putin refuses his mediation, is a coup for Zelensky and the EU. “This allowed Europe to become the party of peace” as Putin looks disrespectful to Trump.

At Pokrovsk, Ukraine's Top Magyar Birds Drone Unit Kills A Russian Every 6 Minutes

Ukraine's elite "Magyar's Birds" drone brigade are named for their founder and leader, Robert Brovdi, whose nickname is "Magyar." Starting as a small team, they have now evolved into a full brigade of 2,000 plus drone pilots, target specialists, engineers and electronic warfare technologists. 

The unit is now averaging one Russian killed every 6.5 minutes or approximately one full Russian assault brigade eliminated every month. Their record - and legend - means they receive the most and best drones from the 16 country international Drone Coalition which had supplied Ukraine with 1 million drones as of February this year. The Birds are among the reasons that the Kremlin has failed, for a year, to achieve its goal of taking Pokrovsk. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

At Pokrovsk, Ukraine's  deadliest drone brigade, the Magyar’s Birds, serving the hottest front, has decimated multiple Russian brigades. The Birds have evolved from a small team into a full brigade, comprising drone pilots, engineers, electronic warfare specialists, and intelligence officers. They operate in decentralized teams focused on deep surveillance, kamikaze drone strikes, and electronic disruption, often destroying Russian artillery and air defense systems far beyond the frontline. The unit now averages a strike every 6.5 minutes, with an estimated a kill-to-loss ratio of 1,000 Russians for each drone operator lost. In the first 10 days of April, the Birds killed 564 Russian soldiers and wounded 311, which means they are eliminating 1 full Russian assault brigade every 4 weeks.

Ukraine Wonders How Long the US Will Allow Itself To Played By Putin

The consensus view in Ukraine and in most European countries is that Russia played the US at Istanbul. The White House, unwilling to publicly acknowledge that Putin would dare do that to the American president who admires his dictatorial precedent, is suggesting this is all part of the negotiating process. 

But the US and Russia have both expended political capital in this situation. The reputational damage they have suffered - one as a predictably deceitful negotiator and the other as a naive dupe, will be difficult to reclaim. The looming question is how long the US will tolerate this before it feels compelled to take action to counter the negative narrative it has permitted to form. JL

Alex Cadier and colleagues report in the Kyiv Independent:

The view from Ukraine — forged by more than a decade of Russian aggression — is that Russia is simply stalling for time, preparing for more military offensives over the summer. Russian President Putin rebuffed Ukrainian President Zelensky, his European allies, and the U.S., and in response, Donald Trump simply went along with it. At best, the Istanbul talks chipped away at American assumptions that Russia is an honest broker; at worst, Putin played for time, and left with the clock. 'Trump is not ready to accept that Russia is cheating him and making him look like a fool, laughing at him in front of the whole world."

Ukrainian Forces Push Further Into Kursk, Disrupting Russian Summer Offensive

Ukrainian assault forces are continuing to advance in their latest strategic incursion into Russia's Kursk oblast. 

The Ukrainians' success puts further pressure on Russia, whose forces are stretched thin and who were marshalling reserves for a planned summer offensive, which may now have to be curtailed because of Ukraine's Kursk threat. JL

RFU News reports:

As Ukrainian forces pushed deeper into Kursk, HIMARS strikes and the Ukrainian Air Force played a critical role in setting the stage for further Ukrainian assaults. This operation aims to divert the Russian attention away from their summer campaign in the Donbas. The Ukrainians intensified their HIMARS strikes to deny Russians the artillery support.  Ukrainian aircraft conducted three precision strikes on Russian positions at Tyotkino train station, disrupting Russian logistics. Ukrainian assault groups advanced in the southwestern part of Tyotkino.

Russian Ground Forces Commander Fired By Putin Amid Ongoing Ukraine Failures

Russia's commander of ground forces was fired by Putin one week after the 70 year old general helped lead the Kremlin "Victory Day" parade. 

The general was reportedly fired for the ongoing failure of Russian forces to make any significant advances in Ukraine. There have also been allegations of corruption against him, although that is endemic in the Russian army. JL

The Moscow Times reports:

Russian President Putin  on Thursday sacked Russia's chief of land forces, General Oleg Salyukov, the Kremlin said, in the latest removal of a high-profile military establishment figure amid the war in Ukraine. Russian law enforcement has charged more than a dozen military and defense sector officials since last year, many of whom were accused of siphoning money from major projects for personal gain. Russia, which reportedly planned to take Ukraine, a country with a much smaller military, in three days, has been stuck in a bloody and grinding three-year conflict that has left thousands dead.