Supplying Troops, Weapons To Russia Earning North Korea $14 Billion

$14 billion is alot of money for an economy like North Korea's. And though it is unclear whether Russia can actually afford to transfer that amount of cash, given its dire economic condition, even the debt - especially if guaranteed or somehow underwritten by China - is a significant financial boost, making the provision of cannon fodder and missiles quite the export business opportunity. JL

Raj K reports in Medium:

North Korea could earn up to 14.4 billion dollars by providing soldiers and weapons to Russia, making it a major source of income for the country. Soldiers alone could easily earn $560 million per year. The second and largest component of earnings is attributable to the supply of weapons. Russia is also providing North Korea with military technology including satellite systems, and modern military equipment.

Russia's 2026 Offensive "One Of the Most Extraordinary Wastes In Military History"

To put it succinctly: in 2026 Russia has lost more land than it gained, have hardly advanced anywhere on the front, are losing 6,000 more soldiers monthly than they can replace - and those trends have accelerated during the spring-summer campaign season in which Russia historically posts its biggest gains.

Combined with the economic losses inflicted by Ukraine's long range strikes on oil refiners, storage and military manufacturing, it is little wonder that Putin is trying to change the conversation by threatening Europe, though with what he can actually threaten it given his abject failure in Ukraine is a question yet to be answered. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

What we have seen this summer and spring has been a Russian offensive that will go down as one of the most extraordinary and bloody wastes in military history. The Ukrainians have liberated more territory from Russia than the Russians have seized—during the Russian spring/summer offensive season. At the same time, Russian troop losses have continued to trend upwards. Over the last four weeks, the Russians have lost 36,080 troops in combat. That is a daily number of 1,289, which would work out to almost exactly 40,000 during the month of August. Russia is losing 6000 more troops a month than it can raise. So, the Russians have hardly advanced, have lost more land than they have gained, are losing considerably more soldiers every month than they can generate, and are facing serious internal questions about how to find more soldiers, for a summer of failure.

Nvidia Uses Deep Pockets, Investing $50 Billion To Keep AI Booming

Nvidia vehemently denies the $50 billion in AI companies is circular financing, to say nothing of the other billions it is investing in expanded electrical grid and related schemes. 

And as long as its own revenues and profits keep rising, it appears that most investors will keep supporting the company's DIY financing strategy. But Wall Street and tech have a history of going all in - 'the trend is your friend, don't fight the tape' - until they don't. The looming question is whether Nvidia's belief in its customers will be matched by their own performance. The further dependence of a narrowing global GDP on AI has economic policymakers' and wealth managers' attention. But whether they will have the wherewithal and courage to intervene if and when necessary is not clear. JL

Anissa Gardizy and Robbie Whelan report in the Wall Street Journal:

Nvidia has invested nearly $50 billion in frontier AI labs, using its balance sheet to bolster the AI boom and shows no signs of giving ground. On Wednesday, the world’s only $5 trillion company reported its second-quarter earnings, which included that the company expects its revenue to grow much faster than Wall Street analysts had been expecting Nvidia seized on the positive vibes created by the revenue news to offer a full-throated argument for the company’s growing use of financial guarantees, equity investments and other mechanisms to help its customers buy AI chips in ever greater quantities. In electricity, too, Nvidia is deploying its balance sheet to make sure customers have somewhere to plug in servers. Nvidia’s incentive is clear: The more power developers it works with, the more data centers that are specially built for its chips versus its competitors.

On Kupiansk Front, Ukraine Gains Another 2 Square Km As Russian Losses Rise

Ukrainian forces have gained another two square kilometers on the Kupiansk front as Russian casualties have risen to as many as 150 per day. 

These successes underscore the continued offensive performance of the Ukrainians while the Russians suffer additional losses in troops and territory in the north. JL

Gwara Media and Mezha report:

Ukraine's 23rd Assault Regiment of the Khartia Corps have liberated another 2 square kilometers of forest west of Dvorichna in the Kupiansk district. The current advance continues an operation in which the regiment’s troops had previously liberated 7.5 square kilometers of forest west of Dvorichna. The unit also established control over the northern part of Zapadne. Russia is losing 125-150 troops per day in Kharkiv oblast.

Russia Forced By Ukraine Strikes To Extend Fuel Export Ban Til January 2027

Russia has been forced to extend its ban on fuel exports by Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on its oil refineries, pipelines and storage facilities.

The ban has been extended six months and includes diesel, gasoline, marine fuel and other petroleum-based products. JL

Prime XBT reports:

Russia  has extended its ban on diesel, gasoline, marine fuel, and gas oil exports through January 31, 2027, pushing the restriction roughly six months further. Ukrainian drone strikes keep knocking Russian refineries offline. Ukraine has launched multiple drone strikes targeting Russian oil refining infrastructure, and a number of major facilities have been incapacitated or forced to reduce output. Russian diesel and gas oil loadings dropped to approximately 234,000 barrels per day in early July 2026. The extended ban is already pushing European diesel margins to historic highs.

The Overwhelming Problem With Reports of A Russian Northern Offensive

A 'surprise' Russian offensive from bases in Belarus south to threaten Kyiv continues to make the rounds. But it is unlikely for a number of very good reasons, not the least of which is that it would be far from a surprise given the advanced state of Ukrainian and NATO intelligence.

Further, Ukraine would quickly strike Russian troop concentrations in Belarus, any advance would be under constant surveillance and attack, and, the Russian army's rate of advance this year has been less than 100 meters a day, meaning it would take the Russians two and a half years to reach Kyiv. This is, thus, likely an effort to get Ukraine to deploy troops needed elsewhere to the north. But the Ukrainians are clearly wise to this gambit. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Reports continue to emerge of a Russian offensive through Belarus into Ukraine. (But) Russia’s invasion of February 2022 was a thrust south from Belarus to capture Kyiv. It failed. Now, any build up would be visible to Ukraine. The Ukrainians would strike Russian troops - and the leader of Belarus can't do anything about it. Russia would be unable to assemble large, high-quality formations without impacting Russian forces on the southern and eastern fronts. Plus, the distance from Belarus to Kyiv is 90 km - but Russian rates of advance have been less than 100 metres per day in their offensives this year . Thus, a Russian advance from Belarus would be impossible to hide, subject to pre-emptive attacks, under constant surveillance and attack. And if the Russians were able to advance at current rates, it would take them two and a half years to reach Kyiv. The plan the Russians tried in 2022 would not be possible now. The Ukrainians have fought this battle - and won.

Russia's Zaporizhzhia Infiltrators Hunted 'the Old-Fashioned Way' By Ukraine Troops

In the vast, now dry bed of what used to be Ukraine's Kakhova reservoir, dense vegetation has grown since the Russians, three years ago, blew up the dam holding back the water. It is now an impenetrable jungle where Russians try to infiltrate as Ukrainians lie waiting in ambush. 

The ground cover is so thick that drones are of little use so the fighting hearkens back to the pre-drone era where soldiers hunt each other on the ground. The Ukrainians report that the quality of Russian soldiers has declined in the past year and that many more of them surrender when they have the opportunity. JL

Carlotta Gall reports in the New York Times:

Since  the Russian Army blew up the Kakhovka Dam three years ago, draining the reservoir, the former flood plain has become a forest of reeds, scrub and willow thickets. This is now a front line between the Russian and Ukrainian Armies, where drones cannot penetrate the cover of the tall weeds and soldiers hunt each other on foot. Russian troops try to infiltrate through the basin; Ukrainian soldiers lie in wait to ambush them. “In the reeds, it’s like the old kind of war, direct contact.” Drones have transformed the battlefield, but have proved of limited use over the dense vegetation of the reservoir. “We spent three days looking for one of our own fighters, not to mention enemy soldiers.” Countless Russians have been killed in repeated assaults to regain control south of Zaporizhzhia, and their bodies remain on the ground. Since the spring, Russian soldiers' quality has declined and they have been surrendering in larger numbers