Desperate Kremlin Strips Air Defense Weapons From Far North To Moscow

Russia is stripping air defenses from other vulnerable parts of the country where it either has strategic bases or military manufacturing in order to try to protect Moscow, St Petersburg and other more southern or western regions which are suffering from relentless Ukrainian drone attacks. 

Russia's far north is reportedly the area most affected by the transfer of air defense weaponry and personnel. JL

Amos Chapple and Mark Krutov report in RFL/RE:

Key military sites in Russia’s far north appear to have been deprived of their air defense assets, recent satellite images show, as the Kremlin attempts to counter an increasingly damaging Ukrainian drone campaign targeting sites elsewhere in the country. The disappearance of many air defense assets from Russia’s far north represents “a growing mismatch between the targets Russia must protect and its available launchers, interceptors, and trained personnel.” As air defense systems disappear from the far north, others have appeared alongside more likely targets for Ukraine’s drone attacks.

Ukraine Ground Drone Use Up 122% As Gray Zone Gets More Lethal

The significance of this is not only that Ukraine sees the need to deploy so many more ground drones, but that it has the ability to do so effectively in a relatively short period of time. JL

Matthew Loh reports in Business Insider:

In the first month of summer, the use of ground drones increased by 18.6% compared to May, and by 122% compared to January. Ukraine's forces conducted over 16,000 missions with ground drones in June alone, more than double its January tally. One of Ukraine's solutions to preserve its already stretched troops is to flood these battlefield supply routes with ground drones instead — often wheeled or tracked buggies laden with food, ammo, and water. Over the last two months, Ukrainian units have also been converting aerial bomber, attack, and surveillance drones to carry supplies 

Russian Air Defense Is In "Catastrophic State" As Ukraine Targets Kremlin's Economy

Ukraine's relentless targeting of Russian air defense assets is having a measurable impact on the larger strategic goal of weakening the Kremlin's military-industrial complex.

The result is that Ukraine is able to execute its plan to systematically destroy individual categories of the Russian economy because the Kremlin military is unable to protect them. JL

Mirek Toda reports in The EU Observer:

Serious changes in the war are linked to several factors. The first is the exhaustion of Russian forces. Ukraine has managed to wear them down to a level where the Russian army is fighting mainly with its infantry. Ukraine's a technological edge is linked to scaling impact on Russian logistics. The Russians are losing the ability to defend themselves effectively. In some sectors, such as air defense, we can speak of a crisis in Russian capabilities Ukraine's strategy consists of the gradual destruction of individual categories of Russian industry – oil refining, the military‑industrial sector, chemicals – as well as in targeting Russia’s scientific base, especially research institutes where new types of weapons and military technologies are developed.

First US-Made Autonomous Ground Drones Are Deployed By Ukrainian Forces

Much has been written about Ukraine's impressive advances in developing aerial, naval and ground drones. But it may be that the US and European military-industrial base is beginning to create useful versions of their own. 

More than 100 US-built ground drones used primarily for logistics and casualty evacuation have been deployed for nine months now by Ukrainian forces under combat conditions. They have proven to be effective. The Ukrainians need them to be less expensive, due, in part, to the cost of inevitable combat-related losses, but they have otherwise proved their worth. JL

Tim Fernholz reports in Tech Crunch:

More than 100 US-made self-driving ATVs have been deployed in conflict zones in Ukraine for the past nine months, the largest deployment of autonomous ground vehicles in combat by a U.S. defense tech company. Forterra's Lancer, based on Polaris ATVs, is equipped with a custom-built sensor and compute stack, are gas-powered and can carry 750 kilograms of cargo. “This UGV for logistics is important in Ukraine,” because it can carry three times more than Ukrainian models. Forterra has learned useful lessons about electronic warfare, updating software from afar, how to maneuver in challenging conditions, and ensuring vehicles don’t break down. One challenge issued by the Ukrainians: Make it cheaper.

Kremlin's False Kostiantynivka Claim Looking Like Kupiansk As Losses Mount

The Kremlin pattern is unmistakable: the Russian Defense Ministry claims it has taken a city, town, settlement; that it's troops are in full control, that the Ukrainians were forced to retreat in disorder and that all of this is yet another example of Russia's 'inevitable' victory. And then reality intrudes and the narrative falls apart. 

The Russians have tried this fairy tale approach recently in Kupiansk, Mala Tomachka, and now, Kostiantynivka. And, whaddya know, in every case, it turns out those darned Ukrainians are not only still fighting but remain in control of significant, if not entire, portions of the territory in question. The strategic problem for the Russians is that, having assured Putin and the pliable western media of their success, they must then try to actually achieve it by sending in more troops, armor and weaponry, which usually ends in a 'throwing good money after bad' destruction of the reinforcements and their equipment by the waiting Ukrainians. Such as appears to be the case in Kostiantynivka now. JL

RFU News reports:

Russian military analysts now compare the announcement about Kostiantynivka capture to the fake capture claim of Kupiansk in November of last year. These doubts are confirmed by Russia’s artillery footage showing active shelling of Ukrainian positions in areas the Russians claim is under their full control. Russia’s premature victory claim has made the disaster worse, as, like Kupiansk, Russian commanders now face immense pressure to make reality match their claims, as Ukrainian drones, artillery, and aircraft hunt Russian infiltrators while they move between ruins, attempting to reinforce positions. The streets have become a graveyard in which the Russians have nowhere to hide. Losses have become so severe the Russian Defense Ministry has now begged Ukraine to halt its shelling so they can supposedly 'evacuate civilians.' The humanitarian pretext is an excuse as significant losses are causing footholds to slip out of their control.

Wall Street Says "Dumb Money" Loves SpaceX, "Smart Money" Doubts It

When SpaceX went public, its stock shot up like the proverbial rockets it makes, though they are a minor part of its actual business. Since then, the performance of its stock has been, well, meh and the reaction of bondholders and potential new buyers of its debt has been downright dismissive.

The issue appears to be that while most corporate executives are generally held to certain, if not always exacting, then, at least recognizable standards. Elon Musk fans, by contrast, expect him to figure out a way to work miracles and so suspend mere financial and operational expectations. No one wants to be on the wrong side of the Musk equity parade because, well, who knows? Maybe he will pull it off again. But the so-called smart money, those who buys bonds, do demand to be paid. And they are exacting a fearsome price to assure that will happen because of doubts about its stated prospects. JL

Bethany McLean reports in the New York Times:

In Wall Street's view, the $2 trillion value the market is affording SpaceX - about the same as Amazon - is set by naïve investors who think Elon Musk’s promises will miraculously be realized. The debt is priced by seasoned investors who understand profits have to be earned, and who are rightly skeptical of Mr. Musk. (But) SpaceX sold under 5% of its shares, a tenth of the average IPO. That creates a supply-and-demand imbalance that will help to keep share prices high. So equity investors’ optimism has structural support. Debt investors are often the first to see problems in shaky companies. They succeed only if the company pays its debts. After going public, SpaceX issued $25 billion in new debt. Credit rating agencies gave the bonds the lowest investment rating. The bonds plunged in value. Traders couldn’t recall a deal where prices sank that quickly. The more debt a company has, the more risk. By that measure, SpaceX is dangerous for the foreseeable future. 

Last Untouched Russian Oil Refinery Struck By Ukrainian Drones

Ukrainian drones last night hit the last major Russian oil refinery that it had not yet struck in 2026. 

Aside from the fact that the target was 1,500 kilometers from Ukrainian territory, the attack reveals two other points of importance. First, Russia has been unable to protect any - repeat, any - of the oil production facilities that are the key to its economy. Reports this week indicate that the Ukrainians' damage to Russian oil assets is having a significant impact on global oil supplies and prices as its usual customers, like China and India must now rely on other sources which were already under pressure due to the failed US war against Iran. Secondly, this implies that Ukraine can now strike with impunity almost any target it wants in Russia, in part because Russian resistance movement members are assisting it, with all that infers about Putin's hold on power. JL 

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Deep Strike units from Ukraine's Special Operations Forces struck Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat, one of Russia's largest oil refining and petrochemical complexes, located in Bashkortostan, on the night of 13-14 July. The targeted complex is located in the city of Salavat, roughly 1,300 to 1,500 kilometers (around 800 to 930 miles) from the Ukrainian border. This strike targeted key production and distillation infrastructure. It follows a series of long-range attacks spanning deep into Russia, including recent strikes on the massive Omsk refinery in Siberia and the Afipsky refinery in the Krasnodar region. The mission was carried out in cooperation with the resistance movement Chornaya Iskra (Black Spark), operating on Russian territory. Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat was the last major petrol producer not yet hit by strikes in 2026.