On Kupiansk Front, Ukraine Gains Another 2 Square Km As Russian Losses Rise

Ukrainian forces have gained another two square kilometers on the Kupiansk front as Russian casualties have risen to as many as 150 per day. 

These successes underscore the continued offensive performance of the Ukrainians while the Russians suffer additional losses in troops and territory in the north. JL

Gwara Media and Mezha report:

Ukraine's 23rd Assault Regiment of the Khartia Corps have liberated another 2 square kilometers of forest west of Dvorichna in the Kupiansk district. The current advance continues an operation in which the regiment’s troops had previously liberated 7.5 square kilometers of forest west of Dvorichna. The unit also established control over the northern part of Zapadne. Russia is losing 125-150 troops per day in Kharkiv oblast.

Russia Forced By Ukraine Strikes To Extend Fuel Export Ban Til January 2027

Russia has been forced to extend its ban on fuel exports by Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on its oil refineries, pipelines and storage facilities.

The ban has been extended six months and includes diesel, gasoline, marine fuel and other petroleum-based products. JL

Prime XBT reports:

Russia  has extended its ban on diesel, gasoline, marine fuel, and gas oil exports through January 31, 2027, pushing the restriction roughly six months further. Ukrainian drone strikes keep knocking Russian refineries offline. Ukraine has launched multiple drone strikes targeting Russian oil refining infrastructure, and a number of major facilities have been incapacitated or forced to reduce output. Russian diesel and gas oil loadings dropped to approximately 234,000 barrels per day in early July 2026. The extended ban is already pushing European diesel margins to historic highs.

The Overwhelming Problem With Reports of A Russian Northern Offensive

A 'surprise' Russian offensive from bases in Belarus south to threaten Kyiv continues to make the rounds. But it is unlikely for a number of very good reasons, not the least of which is that it would be far from a surprise given the advanced state of Ukrainian and NATO intelligence.

Further, Ukraine would quickly strike Russian troop concentrations in Belarus, any advance would be under constant surveillance and attack, and, the Russian army's rate of advance this year has been less than 100 meters a day, meaning it would take the Russians two and a half years to reach Kyiv. This is, thus, likely an effort to get Ukraine to deploy troops needed elsewhere to the north. But the Ukrainians are clearly wise to this gambit. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Reports continue to emerge of a Russian offensive through Belarus into Ukraine. (But) Russia’s invasion of February 2022 was a thrust south from Belarus to capture Kyiv. It failed. Now, any build up would be visible to Ukraine. The Ukrainians would strike Russian troops - and the leader of Belarus can't do anything about it. Russia would be unable to assemble large, high-quality formations without impacting Russian forces on the southern and eastern fronts. Plus, the distance from Belarus to Kyiv is 90 km - but Russian rates of advance have been less than 100 metres per day in their offensives this year . Thus, a Russian advance from Belarus would be impossible to hide, subject to pre-emptive attacks, under constant surveillance and attack. And if the Russians were able to advance at current rates, it would take them two and a half years to reach Kyiv. The plan the Russians tried in 2022 would not be possible now. The Ukrainians have fought this battle - and won.

Russia's Zaporizhzhia Infiltrators Hunted 'the Old-Fashioned Way' By Ukraine Troops

In the vast, now dry bed of what used to be Ukraine's Kakhova reservoir, dense vegetation has grown since the Russians, three years ago, blew up the dam holding back the water. It is now an impenetrable jungle where Russians try to infiltrate as Ukrainians lie waiting in ambush. 

The ground cover is so thick that drones are of little use so the fighting hearkens back to the pre-drone era where soldiers hunt each other on the ground. The Ukrainians report that the quality of Russian soldiers has declined in the past year and that many more of them surrender when they have the opportunity. JL

Carlotta Gall reports in the New York Times:

Since  the Russian Army blew up the Kakhovka Dam three years ago, draining the reservoir, the former flood plain has become a forest of reeds, scrub and willow thickets. This is now a front line between the Russian and Ukrainian Armies, where drones cannot penetrate the cover of the tall weeds and soldiers hunt each other on foot. Russian troops try to infiltrate through the basin; Ukrainian soldiers lie in wait to ambush them. “In the reeds, it’s like the old kind of war, direct contact.” Drones have transformed the battlefield, but have proved of limited use over the dense vegetation of the reservoir. “We spent three days looking for one of our own fighters, not to mention enemy soldiers.” Countless Russians have been killed in repeated assaults to regain control south of Zaporizhzhia, and their bodies remain on the ground. Since the spring, Russian soldiers' quality has declined and they have been surrendering in larger numbers

CIA: Putin Believes US Weakened By Iran War, Less Able To Intervene In Ukraine

This is a curious situation. Putin appears to be correct that the US has foolishly and wastefully expended too much of its strategic arsenal in attacking Iran, which remains unbowed. 

But to make the leap from that to assuming he can then attack Europe at will seems foolhardy for two primary reasons. First, even though he apparently continues to believe they will quail at the threat of Russian aggression, NATO and Europe have doubled down in their defense of Ukraine, largely without Trump administration support. And secondly, the abject failure of the Russian military to subdue Ukraine suggests that should he be foolish enough to attack one of the Baltic states or Poland or Germany, that a) Europe would back down and b) that his troops are capable of prevailing. This European saber-rattling may be intended mostly to keep his own oligarchs and military in line, but it is likely that he will continue to sabotage European defense interests as well as launch air and sea provocations to keep the world guessing. What is clear is that any hint of accomodation on his part will result in his removal and death by his own people. JL

Warren Strobel reports in the Washington Post:

CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow this week was preceded by fresh U.S. intelligence indicating the Kremlin sees the United States as weakened by the Iran war, offering Russia an opportunity to escalate action against American interests and allies in Europe. The CIA chief warned Moscow against ramping up its war against Ukraine, arguing such a move would backfire. U.S. military stockpiles of key weapons have been severely depleted, including Patriot and other air-defense platforms, as well as cruise missiles and the short-range Army Tactical Missile, which is also in demand in Ukraine. Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow was "about Putin assessing we are depleted and can’t intervene.”

Sea Drone "Aircraft Carrier" Debuted By Ukrainian Navy

Not only can the Magura MV11 stay at sea for over a week - far longer than a smaller sea drone - but it can launch 18 drones at a variety of targets making the mistake of entering its kill zone or even seeking out those it suspects of being vulnerable. 

This means enhanced lethality and a new threat for the already depleted Russian navy to try to defend against. JL

Ellie Cook reports in Newsweek:

Ukraine has debuted a new sea drone - the Magura MV11 - able to carry and launch 18 uncrewed UAVs or USVs from the open water, earning the nickname of the world's first "drone aircraft carrier." The Magura MV11 is "not simply the largest maritime drone," it's a "single carrier capable of transporting and launching other unmanned systems far from shore for operations across all domains." The drone can stay up to a week at sea, and ferry up to 2,200 kilograms of sensors, fuel, missiles or other drones. It can carry up to 18 Sting interceptor drones—each with explosive warheads—and has a fixed camera which helps pilots navigate. "This weapon can hang around an area a long way from base and for far longer than a solo drone could manage. This means that, instead of reacting to an incoming threat, the weapon denies the enemy access to the area in the first place."

North Korean Missiles, Troops Being Hunted By Ukraine "One By One"

Get the body bags ready, the North Koreans are back for more. 8,500 North Koreans have reportedly been deployed, mostly in the Kursk region. Their task is primarily to launch missiles at Ukrainian civilian targets - or to protest the troops doing that work.

Ukraine knows where they are and has begun hunting - their word - the North Korean troops and their equipment. JL

RFU News reports:

As North Korea deployed ballistic missile launchers and personnel to support Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities, Ukraine began a systematic hunt for the launchers. 8,500 North Korean soldiers have been deployed to Russia, including 400 drone operators and 1,000 engineers and deminers, with most concentrated in the Kursk Region. Instead of endlessly defending against ballistic missiles already falling toward Ukrainian cities, Ukrainian forces hunt the machines and troops launching them.