Global Oil Futures Soar After Ukraine Missile Attack On Key Russian Oil Port

A devastating cruise missile attack on Russia's major Black Sea oil port, Novorossisk caused global oil futures to rise significantly, suggesting that international markets are being impacted by the Ukrainian attacks. 

The attack was carried out by one of Ukraine's own cruise missile, the Neptune - most famous for its sinking of the Russian Black Sea fleet warship Moskva. The missile has since been modified for use on land targets with extended range and a more powerful warhead. JL

CNBC reports and Taras Safronov reports in Militarnyi:

Oil prices climbed more than 2% on Friday, boosted by supply fears after the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk halted oil exports following a Ukrainian attack that hit an oil depot in the major Russian energy hub. The port paused oil exports and oil pipeline monopoly Transneft suspended crude supplies to the outlet. The strike was carried out by Ukraine's "Long Neptune" cruise missile. The warhead of the updated missile reaches 260 kg, which is 110 kg more than in the anti-ship version. The flight range has increased significantly and now reaches 1,000 km in the Neptun-D version, compared to 280 km in the previous version.

Ukrainian Pokrovsk Bluff Distracts Russians, Strengthens Myrnohrad Defense

Ukrainian forces executed a complex double bluff counterattack at Dobropillia, causing the Russian command to redeploy units from Pokrovsk, which then allowed the Ukrainians to rotate new forces into Myrnohrad, strengthening their defenses there.

The surprise counterattacks confused and disoriented the Russians who apparently believed they were in control of the battle. This was at least the third surprise attack in the Pokrovsk sector in the past week, all of which have resulted in stronger Ukrainian positioning there. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukrainian units launched a massive wave of coordinated counterattacks along the Dobropillia frontline to block and cut off the Russian pincer above Myrnohrad. As the Russians were forced to react to the development, Ukrainian forces used the momentum of air strikes and ground units to simulate a massive assault launched from all sides, catching the attention of Russian surveillance and forcing them to switch from offense to defense. They abandoned attempts to reach the encircled units and focused on holding the line. While the Russian command concentrated on Dobropillia, Ukraine rotated forces in Myrnohrad. This reveals a Ukrainian strategy to force Russia into another slow, attritional fight that costs thousands of lives for minimal territorial gain. 

Why It's So Difficult To Win A Lawsuit Claiming AI False Claims Cause Damage

The burden of proof on the plaintiff suing AI or the company that owns and/or created it is so daunting as to be almost impossible to overcome. 

You have to prove intent - and, at this time, proving what an algorithm or its programmer may or may not have intended - is extremely difficult. Likewise, proving that third parties believe false and defamatory content is actually true is mind-numbingly challenging in a legal context. Which is why so many of these cases never come to trial, let along are won by those bringing them. JL

Ken Bensinger reports in the New York Times:

There have been at least six defamation cases in the US in the past two years over content produced by A.I. They argue it created and published false, damaging information about individuals or groups and, in many cases, continued even after the companies that built the A.I. models were made aware of the problem. The question is who is responsible. A task in defamation cases is proving intent. But since it’s impossible to know what’s going on in the algorithms that drive A.I. models, the suits tried to pin blame on the company that wrote the code. But whether third parties are convinced the allegedly defamatory content is true is crucial in such cases. "If there is an A.I. defamation lawsuit where the defendant is vulnerable, the companies will settle. They don’t want the risk.”

Small Russian Groups Fail To Infiltrate Myrnohrad As Ukrainian Forces Retain Control

Employing the same tactic they have tried to use in Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, small Russian groups of one to three soldiers have attempted to infiltrate Myrnohrad, but so far, are quickly spotted and cleared, as Ukraine retains control of the Pokrovsk suburb. JL

Stanislav Pohorilov reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Russian forces raised their flag at the Myrnohradvuhillia mine in the city of Myrnohrad on 13 November, seeking to create the illusion of a full presence in the city despite being unable to hold positions there as small Russian groups of one or two soldiers manage to slip into the city from time to time. The flag remained in place for less than a day. "Marines from Ukraine's 38th Brigade destroyed the flag with an FPV drone. Two Russian infantrymen who raised the flag were detected and wiped out." Myrnohrad remains under the control of Ukrainian troops.

Ukraine Counterattacks In Zaporizhzhia, As Russian Advance Reports "Overblown"

Just as in Pokrovsk, reports of Ukrainian forces retreating in the Zaporizhzhia-Huliapole sector appeal exaggerated, often by Russian disinformation. 

Analyses by reliable neutral observers reveal massive Russian casualties, confused fighting by small groups and no clear advantage nor major Russian advances. In fact, Ukrainian forces are expressing frustration with their own media for 'panicky lack of control.' JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

Ukrainian assault regiments in Zaporizhzhia are clearing it. A Friday morning briefing reported a relatively stable situation in the Hulyaipole sector with six Russian attacks attempted. All had been repelled. Deep State on Friday showed fighting had stalled in the sector. "The fighting there is a big mess. Small groups of Russian infantry are filtering through Ukrainian lines, Ukrainian counter-attackers hunt them down, and neither side seems to have a clear advantage. The Russians' (numerical) advantage is 8 to 1, but they are also dying in the same proportions. Ukrainian troops are advancing towards Uspenivka. Occasional raids by occupiers into settlements in this sector do not mean either tactical or strategic success." 

Despite Fog, Ukrainian Drones Destroy Russian Tank Column North of Pokrovsk

The Russians have been. using the fog now frequently enveloping the area around Pokrovsk to disguise the columns they are attempting to advance on the city.

But as they have repeatedly demonstrated in the almost four years of their Ukraine invasion, they have a tendency to become overconfident and sloppy once something actually works to their benefit. And so has been the case in the Pokrovsk sector, where the fog has to be really thick for drones not to be able to operate so as to identify and then attack their troops. In this case, the jinxed Russian 155th Naval Infantry (annihilated so many times that it's a wonder anyone will go near them) tried the same tactic - and got decimated for their miscalculation. Although the unit has miscalculated so often in Ukraine over the past three plus years, one has to wonder if that is now doctrine rather than mistake. JL

David Axe reports in Medium:

The Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade miscalculated when it tried, for at least the fourth time in a month, to capture the village of Volodymyrivka, just north of Pokrovsk. Previous attacks failed on Oct. 10, Oct. 16 and Oct. 27. Fog recently covered a Russian effort to reinforce infiltrators battling the Ukrainian garrison in Pokrovsk. The same fog failed to protect the marine column attacking Volodymyrivka. The 155th Naval Infantry lost three tanks, three BTR-82s and a BMP. “Using bad weather conditions (fog as usual), they tried to break through but were destroyed.” Fog can protect you mechanized column. But God help you if it isn't thick enough to blind drones. 

Why Anthropic Is Likely To Turn A Profit On AI Much Faster Than OpenAI

There are two crucial differences between the way Anthropic and OpenAI are approaching the business of AI. Anthropic's strategy would be familiar to most corporate executives: focusing on its core customers (other businesses), keeping its financials within the bounds of reason- such as that may be in the reality warp known as Silicon Valley - and producing a product with related services that is gaining a reputation for superior performance among professionals who actually use AI for business purposes. Per chart, ARR = annual recurring revenue.

OpenAI is a more well known brand, has a CEO seemingly happy to bask in the spotlight, appears to believe it will become the default technology and is, thusly, pouring money into talent and hardware in order to create an unassailable scale. But - and it's a big but - there are growing concerns that OpenAI's product is not professional-grade, that it is being profligate, and is expecting to be bailed out by consumers whose history suggests that once they choose a tech brand, they stay with it (but who, broadly speaking, are also notoriously fickle) and/or that they will be too big to fail so that their friends in government - who they have assiduously courted - will ride to the rescue, cash in hand, if necessary. OpenAI's strategy is high risk/high reward. Anthropic's may be less so. Both appear likely to survive, but one may actually deliver a return on investment in this lifetime. JL

Berber Jin reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Anthropic expects to turn a profit far more quickly than OpenAI. Anthropic has a growing number of business users because of the capabilities of its Claude chatbot, expecting to break even in 2028. OpenAI forecasts its losses that year to swell to $74 billion, 75% of revenue thanks to ballooning spending and expects thinner margins than Anthropic from its sales for the next five years. Yet it is investing far more in chips and data centers needed to build its AI, and doling out more compensation to attract top talent. The ChatGPT-maker expects to burn through 14 times as much cash as Anthropic before turning a profit in 2030. Anthropic is taking a more cautious approach, with costs growing at a pace more in line with revenue. The company is focused on increasing sales among corporate customers and is avoiding OpenAI’s costly forays into image and video