The Backstairs Kremlin Maneuvering To Succeed Putin Has Already Begun

Putin is 74 years old. He shows no signs of fading or of giving up power. But like most dictators, he is surrounded by a cadre of largely faceless men - and they are all men. This is intentional both on his part and theirs. 

He will brook no rivals or pretenders to the throne. And his courtiers are well aware that promoting themselves through public recognition will quickly lead to an 'accidental' fall from a high window. But behind the scenes they are maneuvering so as to be in the best position when he either dies, falters due to age or his misadventures in Ukraine and elsewhere finally catch up with him. All, though, are acutely aware of Kremlin history, particularly after Stalin's death, when the subordinate considered least capable and least likely to succeed Stalin actually won. His name was Nikita Kruschchev. JL

Raj K reports in Medium:

In dictatorial systems, the dictator behaves as if he is immortal, while the courtiers around him constantly look to fill the power vacuum. Putin' inner courtiers are already preparing for the world after him and the battle of succession. Stalin sowed distrust among his companions, leveled accusations of conspiracies against them, and tested their loyalty so no one could build power around himself. Putin is on the same path today. As he turns 74, his body weakens and his contact with the real world fades, he will resort even more to fear, cruelty, and war to maintain his power. The model for the system after Putin is drawn from the power struggle that took place after Stalin’s death in March 1953 when a fierce battle took place among Lavrentiy Beria, Georgy Malenkov, Vyacheslav Molotov, and Nikita Khrushchev, in which Khrushchev, regarded as ordinary, surprised Russians by having Beria killed, and then pushed the remaining rivals to the margins and seized supreme power.

Aerial Drone To Evacuate Wounded Now Being Used By Ukrainians

This could literally be a life-saver on the Ukrainian battlefield where drones have made evacuation of wounded soldiers supremely risky and the notion of the 'golden hour' (the time in which evacuating wounded soldiers increases the likelihood of survival) is but a dream.

This drone is equipped to avoid jamming, can carry up to 300 pounds, can fly in rain or snow and can continue to operate if it loses one of its rotors. JL

Cyril Barabaltchouk reports in United 24:

StarGate is Ukraine's first aerial drone designed to evacuate wounded soldiers from areas too dangerous for conventional vehicles or evacuation teams.  In some sectors, the battlefield “kill zone” under constant drone and artillery threat extends 10 to 15 kilometers or farther. StarGate has a one-way range of 15 kilometers and is designed to reach wounded troops inside those areas. “Covering 10 kilometers in minutes would be a drastic change on the front line.” StarGate can carry up to 150 kilograms (over 300 pounds), enough for a wounded soldier wearing body armor and combat equipment. Its evacuation compartment is built around a medical-grade stretcher. The drone cruises at 65 kilometers per hour and can reach 105 kilometers per hour. Tt can be prepared for flight in 10 minutes.

Vivaldi Reveals Ukraine Knows How To Beat Russians - And Can Repeat It

The Ukrainians' success in Operation Vivaldi has created the template for beating Russia in the drone era: advance degradation of enemy force and logistical capabilities, use of ground and aerial drones both to precede and accompany attacking infantry and armor, and electronic warfare neutering of Russian intelligence. It is also worth noting that keeping objectives simple and then adding to them incrementally is more effective than grand Napoleonic maneuvers. 

What is most important now is the opportunity to replicate that success along other sectors of the front, which may already be happening. JL

David Axe reports in Euromaidan Press:

Five months after launching Operation Vivaldi, the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps has eliminated the Russian bridgehead on its most important objective: the Zherebets River, which forms a natural defensive barrier east of the last big free cities in Donetsk: Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The Ukrainians dodged traps as they flanked the 20th and 25th CAAs. They didn't get stuck in the Russians' minefields. They didn't expose themselves to air attack. (And) they didn't set their sights on distant objectives, instead stacking small gains on top of small gains until those amounted to a big victory. Aerial and electronic preparation was a prerequisite for each of the 3rd Army Corps' incremental advances. The lesson is that "higher headquarters must degrade key enemy capabilities" before a smaller force can gain ground and keep it. There's some evidence the Ukrainians are repeating Operation Vivaldi's success in the southeast

Canceled, Delayed AI and Data Center IPOs Reveal Growing Investor Caution

The combined effect of multiple negative influences is causing investors to become increasingly cautious about the prospects for AI and related company IPOs. 

These factors include the poor performance of recent IPOs, rising interest rates, growing political opposition to data centers, competition from cheaper Chinese models, concerns about AI risk and the fear that the AI funding market is beginning to tighten. As a result, some offerings are being delayed, a few even canceled. But the larger implication is that while this does not necessarily mean the AI boom has peaked, it does reveal a growing investor uncertainty about how long it can continue. JL

Corrie Driebusch and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Rising  interest rates, a jumpy stock market and heightened political uncertainty are creating a dicey outlook for tech companies that had been aiming for a fourth-quarter public offering, causing some to reconsider their timing. A selloff in memory chip makers on Tuesday spurred by concerns about competitive threats from China was a reminder of how sensitive investors are to adverse developments. Shares in CoreWeave and Nebius also traded down, continuing a weeklong slide. The latest signs of cooling interest came when two data-center companies, Airtrunk and Firmus Grid, pumped the brakes on their public offerings within a few days. market conditions and local backlash to AI data centers could cause the funding market to tighten. Investors are being choosier about new stock offerings, reserving capital for Anthropic’s planned offering later this year. Poor performance by recent IPOs is also deterring investors.

Russian Troops Attempting Dnipro Crossing Wiped Out By Ukrainian Marines

Russian forces across the front keep trying to demonstrate to the Kremlin that they are being aggressive, but the price, as in this case on the Dnipro River near Kherson, is almost always failure and new casualties. JL

Taras Safronov reports in Militarnyi:

In the Kherson region, Russian soldiers were killed by troops from the 34th Marine Brigade while attempting to cross the Dnipro River in inflatable boats. The deceased served in the 215th Separate Guards Reconnaissance Battalion, which is part of Russia's 98th Guards Airborne Division. The river has become the line of demarcation between the positions of the opposing sides in this sector. The river complicates offensive operations because crossing it requires boats or other watercraft, proper coordination, as well as the organization of supply lines and the evacuation of  wounded. During the crossing, soldiers risk coming under fire from artillery, aircraft, and attack drones.

RPGs Being Mounted On Ground Drones By Ukraine With "Great Success"

When the Russians first invaded Ukraine almost five years ago, one of the major contributions to the Russian failure was Ukrainian soldiers armed with rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) which took out innumerable Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers. 

But with the advent of drones, it has become too dangerous for RPG-armed infantry to get close enough to Russian armor. They will almost always be spotted and eliminated before they can fire. So the Ukrainians have started mounting RPGs on ground drones, an innovative solution which is reportedly being implemented with 'great success.' JL

Sinead Baker reports in Business Insider:

Ukrainian soldiers in the kill zone have been putting anti-tank RPGs on ground robots because the battlefield has become too dangerous for troops to use the weapons the way infantry did earlier in the war to defeat armored vehicles and weaken fortified positions. Ground robotic fire support platform can carry two RPG-7 launchers, along with other weapons and mine-laying capabilities. Soldiers started putting the RPGs on robots already armed with machine guns. The robots can drive close enough to targets and fire shorter-range weapons while keeping their operators much farther from danger. They have had 'great success' using them.

Russian Men Are Fleeing Before Putin's New Mobilization Grabs Them

In Russia, the word is out: the Kremlin is planning another stealth mobilization and the odds of returning alive are not good for thus who are conscripted.

As a results, tens of thousands of Russian men are emigrating to Georgia and Armenia, countries which do not require a visa for Russians to enter. JL

The Economist reports:

When Putin declared a mobilisation in September 2022, six months after invading Ukraine, 400,000 Russian men fled the country. This time people are leaving before the announcement. On August 18th 20,000 people crossed the land border between Russia and Georgia, triple the normal daily number. Russian customs officials reported similar numbers on preceding days. In Armenia, another country that lets Russians in without a visa, high demand for rental properties has pushed up prices by 30-50%. A group that helps Russians opposed to war to emigrate, says enquiries have gone up eight-fold since July. At the moment Russia’s army attracts mainly low-skilled men with few prospects. Soldiers are paid an unimpressive 200,000 rubles a month, much of which is often stolen by their superiors.