A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

May 31, 2026

Ukraine Deploys "100s" of Decoys With Long Range Strikes, Confusing Russians

Some of the credit for Ukraine's long range drone attack success is due to the fact that it now routinely deploys hundreds of decoy drones engineered to mimic the radar signatures of ballistic missiles along with its live ammunition-carrying drones. 

This confuses Russian air defenses, causing them to waste munitions on fakes while inadvertently giving away their radar and anti-missile battery locations which can then be destroyed in follow-up attacks. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

By deploying hundreds of specialized decoy drones alongside live munitions, Ukraine is blinding, exhausting, and physically dismantling Russia’s air defense network. It is a calculated system where only a specific percentage of the launched fleet is fitted with explosive payloads, while a parallel wave of decoys is deployed simultaneously to oversaturate Russian radar systems. Advanced, jet-powered decoy drones in its strike packages are engineered to mirror the radar signatures of cruise or ballistic missiles. When Russian anti-aircraft crews engage what their radar indicate is a missile threat, they exhaust interceptors on decoys while revealing the geographic coordinates of their radar and missile batteries. Armed drones then neutralize those exposed assets. Ukraine's deep-strikes are distributed and managed through laptops. “It is difficult for Russia to destroy this program; we don’t have single centers, we use dozens of locations."

Kremlin Can No Longer Assemble Needed Mass As Ukraine Strikes Dominate

The Kremlin's forces can no longer assemble the mass needed to effect breakthroughs as Ukraine systematic dismantling of air defenses blinds the Russians to threats which Ukrainian troops capitalize on with aerial and ground drones. 

The result is that, for the first time in this war, military analysts are consistently declaring that it is Ukraine which has the momentum to break the stalemate of the past few years. And when influential political publications like The Hill (referring to Capitol Hill in Washington, DC), which is read by elected officials and their staffs, declare Ukraine has the advantage, it has a significant impact. JL

Ellen Mitchell reports in The Hill:

Defense analysts this week said the war had entered a new phase, with Kyiv poised to break a stalemate that has been in place since late 2023. Ukraine is gaining momentum on the battlefield, regaining territory for the first time in years as it outflanks Moscow’s forces through its domination of drone warfare. “Only a few months ago, the majority of analysts were saying that by now Russia would have captured the whole of the Donbas. But the Russians simply cannot accumulate the kind of mass and armor needed for breakthroughs.” The shift dates back to late 2025, when the Ukrainians began striking Russian ground-based radars, electronic warfare stations, surface-to-air missiles and drone capabilities, blinding Moscow’s forces from incoming threats. 

Putin's "Inevitable Victory In History's Dustbin" As Ukraine takes 100 Sq Miles In May

In the four week period ending May 28th, Ukrainian forces took over 100 square miles from the reeling Russians, confirming the growing sense that Ukraine has changed the war on the ground and the narrative on the airwaves. This followed a net Russian loss of 26 square miles in April.

The combined effect of Ukraine's frontline advances, devastating mid-range logistics destruction campaign and long range economic targeting appear to be too much for the Kremlin's overmatched military. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

The broader picture shows a deterioration for Russian forces. Their progress for the last month has taken small parcels in different areas, but has not been significant and has come at a massive cost in manpower and resources.  In the four weeks ending 26 May 2026, Russian forces suffered a net loss of 100 square miles of Ukrainian territory, with a net loss of 26 square miles in the preceding month. In the week of 19-26 May, Russia lost 38 square miles. Ukraine’s mid-range drone campaign appears to be exerting effects on Russian operational capacity in the south.  Russia’s Spring offensive, as a cohesive campaign, has not generated the tempo to change the situation on the ground. Putin’s ’inevitable victory’ narrative seems to now be firmly in the dustbin of history.

May 30, 2026

Russia's 64th Motor Rife Brigade of Bucha Massacre Infamy, Struck By Ukraine

Ukraine has a long memory. One of the Russian units most responsible for the massacre of Ukrainian civilians at Bucha, Irpin and other Kyiv suburbs during the first days of the Russian invasion was the 64th Motor Rifle Regiment. The unit is based near Khabarovsk, in Siberia. It's officers are white, ethnic Russians but many of its soldiers are ethnic Buryats or Yakuts, indigenous people who are discriminated against in Russia's society. 

Because of the 64th notoriety, they have been targeted by Ukrainian forces whenever they have subsequently appeared at or near the front. Most recently, last night, the unit was struck again, this time by aerial drones, in reserve positions in Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. They will never be accorded mercy. JL

Kateryna Tyshchenko reports in Ukraine Pravda and Mark Krutov reports in RFE/RL:

The Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine struck Russia's 64th Motor Rifle Brigade, which committed crimes in Bucha in 2022. Operational data confirm losses among the 64th Brigade of 31 personnel, including 9 killed, 9 wounded and 13 missing. Actual figures are likely to be significantly higher. The unit gained global notoriety at Bucha, the site of mass killings of civilians and other alleged war crimes. Ukraine's Defense Ministry accused the brigade, which was deployed to Bucha and nearby locations, of atrocities. The (vengeance) operation was carried out by the 414th Magyar's Birds Brigade and the 413th Regiment on the night of 29-30 May, coordinated by the newly created Deep Strike Centre of the Unmanned Systems Forces 70 and 100 km from the front line.

US Embassy In Kyiv To Remain Open Despite Russian Bombing Threats

The US has vowed to keep its embassy in Kyiv open despite increasingly desperate threats from the Kremlin, claiming that it intends to escalate its missile and drone attacks on the city meaning that citizens and diplomats could be at risk. 

As Russia's performance on the battlefield deteriorates, it has tried to increase its attacks on civilian targets. The global war narrative has turned against Russia and Putin suggesting his options are bleak. In response, he has demanded more terror bombing of non-military targets which, so far, appear to have only further motivated European and other civilized countries to oppose Russia. JL

Ferdinand Knapp reports in Politico:

The United States said its embassy in Ukraine will remain open despite Russian warnings that diplomats who remain in Kyiv risk getting bombed. Russia's foreign ministry urged foreign citizens and diplomats to leave Kyiv “as soon as possible,” warning they risked being hit by missile strikes. Washington’s decision to keep its embassy open mirrors that of EU countries dismissing the Kremlin’s calls to leave the capital city. "We are staying in Kyiv."

Surprise Ukraine Counterattack Near Lyman Collapses Russian Salient

Russia's already tenuous foothold west of the Zherebets River, in the Lyman sector, has been thrown into further doubt by a surprise Ukrainian counterattack from the north, which is threatening the Russian salient with cutoff and collapse. 

Ukrainian forces combined arms tactics with complementary drone, artillery, armor and infantry has exposed the Kremlin's logistical lifeline, leaving trapped Russian troops with one option: retreat. JL

RFU News reports:

Ukrainian forces launched a major mechanized assault north of Lyman. After the Russians had spent over a year trying to outflank the Ukrainian town, the Ukrainians are threatening to collapse the entire salient in less than a month. Ukraine achieved tactical surprise and penetrated deep into Russia's northern flank. Russia's delay in effective response proved critical, as Ukrainian forces advanced three to five kilometers before Russian drones reached the assault groups. The Russians are experiencing growing logistical difficulties, remaining in increasingly unsustainable positions. The future of Russia's long contested foothold west of the Zherebets River is in doubt. 

AI Is Minting Billionaires. The Global Workforce Wants Their Share

Samsung Electronics reported record profits due to the AI-driven demand for its chips. It's workforce threatened to strike if it was not given a greater share, to which Samsung agreed. Now, Korean politicians are insisting that the entire populace share in the benefits of a technology their work and taxes helped fund - and they may be only first of a global wave. 

Polls show that Americans literally hate AI, and part of the reason is that they know an infinitesimally small group of tech billionaires and investors will grab almost all of the profits. The Koreans may have acted first, but when even MAGA Republicans in the US are starting to question AI's wealth distribution, especially since so much of the research was paid for by taxpayers, that is a harbinger of broad societal anger. The tech industry is responding vehemently, branding everyone opposed to unfettered AI a communist, terrorist or worse. But the demands are not going to go away, particularly as so many jobs are being cut in AI's name. JL

Rina Chandran and John Popko report in Rest of World:

The money the AI boom has created for a select few “border on unthinkable.” Last year, 29 AI founders minted a collective $71 billion. Over the past year, U.S. startups have created 19 billionaires worth a combined $59 billion while, big tech companies including Meta, Amazon, and Oracle have announced tens of thousands of job, saying they are redirecting investment into AI. Of 130,000 layoffs since the start of the year, 77,000 are linked to AI adoption or investment - 60% of the total. AI gains rest on publicly funded research, government infrastructure, decades of scientific work, and the labor of people throughout the supply chain. Yet the rewards are “concentrating in a small number of firms and their investors, while the costs and risks are being distributed much more broadly. “Globally, workers are beginning to make the same claim: a rightful share, grounded in contribution.”