Russia's Rubikon Drone Unit Unused To Being Hunted, Panicked During Vivaldi

Embracing a strategy made famous by Alexander the Great a couple of thousand years ago, the Ukrainians decided to target Russia's best unit - the Rubikon Unmanned Systems Forces - during Operation Vivaldi.

And what they learned, as a result, surprised them. The famously ruthless and effective Rubikons turned out to be rather sensitive to being hunted themselves, and experience to which they were not accustomed. When the Ukrainians specifically targeted Rubikon operators and their casualties rose, Rubikon units abandoned their positions and fled. JL

Mezha News reports:

During Operation Vivaldi, which lasted from May to mid-October, units of the Russian Rubicon Center for Unmanned Systems abandoned their positions after suffering heavy losses. Ukrainian specialists focused on killing personnel from the Russian unit rather than destroying its antennas. "They are actually very sensitive to losses. These guys are used to being moved to a sector, doing their job, hunting our pilots, and then dodging away. They aren’t used to being hunted. When Rubicon began losing its pilots to deaths, morale among its members fell sharply right away."

Ukrainians Have Crossed the Siverskyi-Donets River In Force

Crossing the Siverskyi Donets with small teams of special forces was significant enough, because it underscored the degree to which the Russians had lost control not just of the Lyman salient, but of their ability to defend their fallback positions.

By crossing the river in force with larger units in several locations, the Ukrainians are putting additional pressure on the Russians to try to defend what they have left in that sector, as opposed to even thinking about offensive operations. JL 

Raj K reports in Medium:

The Ukrainian army has crossed a key natural barrier—the Siverskyi Donets River. The most important result of this advance is that Russian soldiers are now being pushed back behind the same natural barriers that took them months and heavy resources to cross. The first sign that the Russian defense line was breaking came from reports by Russian military bloggers who admitted that Russian soldiers have been driven out of Pyskunivka and had now taken defensive positions on the approaches to Kryva Luka. The Ukrainian soldiers are putting pressure on them by crossing the river from the direction of Ozerne as well as from the west. With Ukrainian control established on both banks of the river, the Russian army has been pushed into an extremely vulnerable and defensive position just before the arrival of winter.

Over 100 Russians Killed, 29 Captured By Ukraine Special Ops In Sumy

In addition to recent successes around Lyman, Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkhiv, Ukrainian forces have now reported that they stymied Russian advance attempts in Sumy oblast, inflicting heavy casualties and again, as in Lyman, taking an unusually large number of Russian prisoners. JL

Tania Myronyshena reports in the Kyiv Independent and Mezha reports:

Ukrainian special forces killed 108 Russian soldiers, captured another 29, and struck more than 1,100 Russian targets during a seven-week operation in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian operatives cleared Russian troops  from more than 600 hectares of forest before handing over the positions to Ukraine's Defense Forces. The operation took place in 2 stages, which thwarted Russian offensive plans and prevented Russian troops from cutting off Ukrainian logistical routes in the region.

The Big Catch In AI Billionaires Offering Stock 'Gifts" To America

It is well-known that some Americans can be bought. And some of them even hold high public office. But with pubic skepticism about AI leaders at 74%, the news that AI company leaders are now contemplating or promising billions in stock giveaways of various shades and complexions so that Americans can share in the bountiful promise of AI is being greeted with less than fulsome praise or public acclamation.

The reasons are borne of Americans' relatively new-found cynicism about the motives of tech leaders and a rather impressive focus on who actually benefits from this largesse. First of all, Anthropic, which is generally perceived, correctly or not, as less single-mindedly predatory than OpenAI, is creating a fund from which it will disperse gifts 'for the public benefit.' Who, exactly, decides what the public benefit is, has not been revealed, nor what happens if the public itself disagrees with those decision-makers' definition of it. Next, Elon Musk, announced that he would give 'every kid in America' a share of SpaceX. His pal, Donald Trump, immediately concluded that this putative gift would be placed in the newly launched Trump accounts of American children. But there is a catch: such gifted shares cannot be rejected and cannot be sold for five years. Which would provide a handsome floor for the donor whose SpaceX and Tesla companies, which are dependent on US government largesse but face financial headwinds. Then there are the tax benefits for such gifts, which significantly reduce the actual cost. That the Musk Foundation has failed to meet minimum asset gift requirements for four of the last five years, raises further, ah...questions. In short, this is better than nothing, but appears to be a bold faced attempt to improve the AI industry's reputation as opposition to data centers and AI continues to rise. JL

Will Gottsegen reports in The Atlantic, Rebecca Crosby and Noah Sims report in Popular Information:

On Sunday, Anthropic committed 5% of its shares to the Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, “a new wholly owned entity dedicated entirely to the public. On Monday, "Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America,” Elon Musk wrote. Musk did not provide details, including whether shares would be given to every person under 18 or the timing. There are reasons to be skeptical of Musk’s and other AI leaders' motivations. Musk is the world’s richest person, with a net worth of $904 billion. A donation of $10.5 billion is about 1% of his net worth. The donation of  stock would provide huge tax benefits. Plus, private foundations, including Musk's, are required to give away 5% of their assets each year. Musk's Foundation fell short of this requirement in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. If he uses Trump Accounts for dispersal, parents can’t reject donated shares, and they can’t sell them for five years. 74% of Americans have little to no trust in the leaders of AI companies.

The Myth of the Drone-Only Battlefield Put To Rest By Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi

For those willing to see, the most successful technological template has been evident years. There is no real plug and play which magically replaces humans. 

Instead, the most effective implementation of technology in business has been among organizations that recognize a completely disruptive and expensive approach ultimately works best: reorganize roles and reporting lines, rethink tactics and strategies, encouraging highly skilled staff to embrace and enhance tech's impact. And if you look closely at the success of Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi, that is what the Ukrainian 3rd Corps did to make drones, ground robots and electronic warfare the devastating combination it became. JL

The World Strategist reports:

Over the past two years a narrative gained traction: the conflict in Ukraine has morphed into a “drone war” and the future lies with unmanned systems. Tanks are old school. Soldiers are merely targets. (But) Operation Vivaldi proved drones, robots, electronic warfare, armor, artillery and infantry need to be integrated into one coordinated system. Phase 1 was a shaping and deception operation. And then, the infantry was not replaced by robots, but preceded and accompanied by them. In two nights robots cleared 30 kilometers of routes, which would have taken two engineer companies a week. They laid 400 meters of mine barriers. They also delivered supplies, evacuated wounded and captured positions. Drones have proven to be essential, but not sufficient. Robots are revolutionary, but not a substitute for soldiers. It’s not just drones on the battlefield. It’s combined arms — human led and machine enabled

Russia Is Losing the Land War As Death Gap Rises To 10 Russians For 1 Ukrainian

Vladimir Putin has become as dependent on Donald Trump as Trump has on him, but for different reasons.

Trump is frightened of losing his majorities in the US Senate and Congress from midterm elections in two weeks. His poll ratings continue to sink and a number of his recent positions, including his obvious favoritism for Russia, are deeply unpopular. But he is embracing that stance because he thinks Putin can help him in the midterms, in addition to offering him wealth-enhancing deals in Russia. Putin, on the other hand, appears to know he is losing the land war in Ukraine - and that there is little chance his corrupt, ineffective military can turn the situation around. With a death rate disparity of ten Russians for every Ukrainian and replacement dependent on impoverished, poorly trained Africans and South Americans, Trump's undermining of Ukraine may be his only hope for a somewhat positive negotiated settlement. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Today, relative casualty rates have changed dramatically in Ukraine's favor. The Russians' casualty rate averages one to six, and if you count the killed, it's one to 10 or more (which is contributing) to a continuing degradation in the relative quality and manpower differential between Russia and Ukraine. This helps explain the flailing Russian offensives and confirms why Trump might be desperate to help Putin. The land war, which was always seen as the greatest Russian strength (the mythical steamroller, remember), was transitioning to a Russian weakness. The evidence points more and more to that happening.

After Vivaldi, Russia's 144th Motor Rifle Division Ceased To Exist As Combat Unit

Russia's 144th Motorized Rifle Division, a key element of the Kremlin's 20th Combined Arms Army on the Lyman front, has ceased to exist as an effective fighting force following the casualties and destruction of equipment it suffered at the hands of Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi.

The 144th was stationed in the Lyman salient bridgehead across the Siverskyi Donets River. That salient was a primary focus of Operation Vivaldi and has now been eliminated. As a result, the 144th bore the full brunt of the Ukrainian assault and has been decimated, rendering it operationally ineffective. Its latest dispositions suggest it has been placed in a defensive posture as it awaits rebuilding. JL

Andrii Sukharov reports in Miiitarnyi:

The 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army effectively ceased to operate as an organized military force following Operation Vivaldi. The 144th Division was part of a Russian force operating from a bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River. The Russian plan called for an advance through Svyatogorsk toward Barvinkove. Together with an offensive through Dobropillia, this was intended to encircle the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area and Ukrainian forces in the north of Donetsk region. During Operation Vivaldi, Ukrainian troops eliminated the bridgehead and inflicted significant losses on the Russian offensive group. The division’s current actions are an attempt to establish a defensive position rather than organized offensive operations.