A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 20, 2026

Russian Soldier Named In Kyiv Area War Crimes Eliminated

A Russian soldier from the notorious 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade that committed many of the war crimes in the Kyiv area immediately following the invasion in 2022 has been 'eliminated' by Ukrainian forces. 

The Ukrainians' memory is long and they are demonstrating a determination to neither forget nor forgive. JL

Vladislav V reports in Militarnyi:

Ukrainian forces eliminated Artem Belikov of the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, whom Ukrainian investigators suspect of involvement in the shooting of civilians in the Kyiv region. In March 2022, cars carrying Ukrainians attempting to evacuate from Severynivka to Uman. As a result of the shooting, a man, his wife and their 15-year-old daughter were killed on the spot. Only their youngest daughter, 9, survived. Belikov was among the soldiers who carried out the order. At the time, he held the rank of corporal, but he rose to the rank of junior lieutenant. On June 23, he went on a combat mission during which he was seriously wounded. Belikov was evacuated to a hospital but on June 27, he died of his wounds.

Zelensky May Be Forced To Fire Syrski and Bring Back Fedorov In Some Capacity

At a time when Ukraine's armed forces are having their greatest success against Russia since the opening invasion of Kyiv was defeated in 2022, President Zelensky's decision to fire Defense Minister Fedorov has been met by the fiercest opposition to any of his decisions since that time. Protests have erupted across the country and many are questioning Zelensky's judgement and motives. 

As a result, new reports reveal that, rather than toughing it out, Zelensky now realizes he must respond to those growing concerns. He has been meeting with military commanders, some of whom remain loyal to C-in-C Syrski and with other political leaders. It appears, at this point, that the president will either have to replace Syrski and, possibly, bring Fedorov back into government in some capacity. The implication is that Ukrainian society recognizes Fedorov and the success the armed forces have had during his tenure, represent the future, while Syrski, fairly or not, represents the corrupt Soviet past. And Ukraine wants the future. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack, Alona Mazurenko and Roman Romaniuk report in Ukraine Pravda:

Kyrylo Budanov, Zelensky's chief of staff, said "the public has been heard" and "there will be results" amid talks between Zelenskyy and military commanders. Sources say the president is seeking to replace Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces. Fedorov was “results oriented”, made decisions quickly, got his way against bureaucrats, opposed and uprooted corruption, thinks technologically. He put stress on air defense, drone production and troops' treatment. The personnel issues facing Ukraine would not be met by drafting more young people but by making military service more professional. The reaction of Ukrainian society and the armed services to Fedorov’s removal showed his vision had wide support and his dismissal was not going to be quietly accepted. Fedorov was a key to the changes that were giving them the initiative in the war. Protests started and grew, from Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Lviv and many other Ukrainian cities

Russia Has Only Been Able To Recruit 25% Of New Drone Force Troops

Russia has attempted to copy Ukraine by setting up its own Unmanned Systems Force but has only been able to recruit 25% of the young men needed to do so. 

The reason is that Russian university students, who are the prime demographic for that new unit are refusing to volunteer and are legally fighting conscription. The reason is that because Russian infantry units are so understaffed, they often forcibly take 'drone specialists' who have been promised better treatment and no frontline posting. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

Russia has recruited barely a quarter of the personnel it planned for its newly created Unmanned Systems Forces in the latest sign that Moscow is struggling to replenish its military. The failure reflects the broader slowdown in Russian military recruitment and the collapse of a campaign targeting university students, who were expected to form the backbone of the new force. Despite recruitment drives and pressure from educational institutions, many students have refused to sign military contracts, fearing they could later be transferred to assault units and forced into open-ended military service.  The Moscow Times claimed contracts were being signed only by “poor students facing expulsion." Recruits are most often men over the age of 50 with difficult personal backgrounds, 'the least suitable' for Russia’s high-tech military branch.

Ukraine's Stout Lyman Defense Thwarts Russia's 2026 Fortress Belt Hopes

The Kremlin's plan was to assault and take Ukraine's Fortress Belt this year. But as Germany's General von Moltke said before WWI, 'no plan survives first contact with the enemy.' Or, as boxer Mike Tyson intoned more graphically, 'everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.'

Russia has actually endured several punches in the face this year - so far - including Ukraine's counterattacks which threw off first its winter offensive and then its spring-summer offensive. And now, the Ukrainian's formidable defense of Lyman has the Kremlin talking about assaulting Sloviansk, the first of the Fortress Belt cities...next year. But the relative battlefield performance of the Ukrainians versus the Russians already has military analysts wondering if even that delayed timetable can be achieved. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

It has taken the Russians far longer than anyone anticipated to close the gap between Siversk, which they captured seven months ago, and Lyman. And time isn't necessarily on the Russians' side as Ukrainian drones strike deeper and harder. As recently as late last year, Russian commanders had planned to bypass Lyman from the north and south in order to form a "western claw"—one that could crush Lyman and then reach for Sloviansk as early as this year. The stout Ukrainian defense of Lyman, coupled with targeted Ukrainian counterattacks north of the city, broke the claw. Now the Russians need to build a new one, and hope for a fresh opportunity to assault Sloviansk next year. (But) Ukraine's drones can make Russia's advance so slow, and so costly, that Sloviansk stays free into 2027 and beyond. On the evidence so far, that's the likeliest outcome.

OpenAI's Growing Challenges Narrow Its IPO Window

There is an element in OpenAI's 'challenges' of "we should all have such problems." It's valuation remains somewhere between $933 and $852 billion. So, yeah, everything is relative. 

That said, leaked financials revealed a $20 billion plus operating loss in 2025 and its plans continue to reflect an aspirational optimism. Arch-rival Anthropic has surpassed it reputationally - and to some extent, operationally - especially with business users. A cooling relationship with Microsoft and a 'thermonuclear' trade secrets lawsuit from Apple suggest that other Big Tech companies are no longer afraid to confront or alienate CEO Sam Altman and OpenAI's investors, implying Silicon Valley's leaders have plenty of AI options, like the increasingly effective and considerably less expensive Chinese models. So, rather than dictating the shape of the AI equity market, OpenAI now has to tread carefully because it cannot afford to be (further) upstaged by Anthropic, nor have its IPO be labelled 'disappointing.' These are, most emphatically, first world problems. But when you live and work in that world, they are still problems. JL

Asa Fitch reports in the Wall Street Journal:

OpenAI's IPO listing now faces reservations about large financial losses and questions about leadership. The company’s ChatGPT is no longer the clear AI market leader and OpenAI has been surpassed in its valuation by competitor Anthropic. Another headache arose with Apple’s lawsuit against OpenAI, accusing it of stealing trade secrets. That trade-secret suit echoes what Jobs dubbed a “thermonuclear war” against Google over its Android phone-operating system, which Jobs saw as a ripoff of Apple’s iOS. The suit could be designed to slow OpenAI down by injecting legal concerns into its hiring efforts and to rattle investors. Altman and OpenAI’s board of directors might be better served to wait until next year. But next year may also be too late. By then, Anthropic will have made its debut on the market (it filed to go public before OpenAI did), cementing OpenAI’s status as an erstwhile leader that fell behind.

Jul 19, 2026

Wildberries Warehouses "Russia's Amazon," Destroyed By Ukrainian Drone Strikes

Wildberries is a Russian company which is that country's equivalent of Amazon. It increasingly supplies consumer needs. And, as it turns out, is a source of sanctioned electronic and operational components for the Russian military. 

As a result, a number of its warehouses were struck by Ukrainian drones, destroying them and killing a number of workers. The lesson meant for Russian citizens is that as long as the Kremlin insists on continuing to attack Ukrainian cities, Russians will not be immune from similar hits, with all of the danger and loss implied. It is worth noting that Wildberries is refusing to compensate third party vendors and customers whose merchandise was lost or damaged in the drone strikes, which will further exacerbate the impact. JL

Novaya Gazeta reports:
Ukraine launched a massive attack on Russian regions overnight, targeting an oil depot and warehouses owned by Russia’s biggest online retailer Wildberries. The assault killed at least eight people and injured dozens more. At least seven warehouse workers on the night shift were killed when a drone struck a Wildberries warehouse in the Tambov region, in central Russia. Wildberries warehouses were used to ensure the supply of sanctioned components for the production of drones and navigation equipment. Wildberries CEO Tatyana Kim expressed her condolences to the victims of the attack and pledged her support. (But) this does not include financial compensation for sellers, whose products were destroyed in the attack — Wildberries had previously refused any liability.

50,000 Russian Troops Eliminated By One Drone Unit In 1st Six Months 2026

The drone operators of one Ukrainian unit, the Alpha special operations group of Ukraine's security services, reportedly eliminated over 50,000 Russian troops in the first half of 2026 and is continuing to do so at that extraordinary rate. 

The implication is that Russian casualties - and their deleterious impact on Russian performance - can be expected to grow for the rest of the year JL

Svitlana Shcherbak reports in Defense Express:

Ukrainian Security Service's Alpha Special Operations unit neutralized more than

50,000 russian troops during the first half of 2026, with nearly 1,300 additional casualties inflicted over the past week alone. The unit neutralized more than 5,500 Russian troops in June 2026. Alpha operators conducted both long-range precision strikes against russian military targets and daily operations