"Crucial" Russian Missile Control Systems Plant Struck By Ukraine

A plant that manufactures crucial electronic components for the guidance systems of Russian missiles was badly damaged by a Ukrainian missile and drone strike. 

The facility was in Bryansk, relatively close to the border with Ukraine, and in addition to the deaths and damage there, it further undermines Russian morale about how the war is being conducted. JL

Ivan Nechepurenko reports in the New York Times:

Ukrainian forces struck the Russian city of Bryansk, home to a major factory that produces components for Russian missiles, in an attack that killed six civilians and injured 42 others. The attack highlighted how Ukraine can hit high-value targets inside Russia despite Russia’s air defenses and the jamming of GPS and mobile internet. The plant, which lies 60 miles inside Russia, is a “critically important link” in the production of Russian missiles. The facility made “semiconductor devices and integrated microchips” for missile control systems. The plant is “one of the biggest microelectronics enterprises in Russia,” with more than 1,700 workers. Russian military bloggers, called the attack's success a result of “criminal negligence and unthinkable stupidity” by Russian officials.

Kremlin's "Buffer Zone" Strategy Has Been Derailed By Ukrainian Counterattacks

The Kremlin's winter strategy was to make gains so significant that Ukraine would be forced to concede to the Russian 'buffer zone' concept which would have required Ukraine to cede territory the Russian military was incapable of taking in fighting. 

Ukraine flipped that script by launching its own counteroffensive, opportunistically taking advantage of both weather and Starlink cutoffs that restricted Russian capabilities. The Ukrainians have now regained so much territory that the buffer zone concept is dead because Kyiv's forces now control formerly occupied Russian territory AND the ostensible buffer zones. JL

Martina Sapio reports in Politico:

Ukraine has regained almost complete control of its Dnipropetrovsk region and recaptured several hundred square kilometers of territory in recent counterattacks. Pushing Russian forces back undermines Moscow's attempts to establish buffer zones along parts of the border, and disrupts Russian plans for attacks in the spring and summer. As Russia’s full-scale invasion drags into its fifth year, with Moscow struggling to make significant advances despite committing large numbers of troops to grinding assaults along the front, the Ukrainian counterattacks are generating tactical, operational and strategic effects.  Moscow may now need to abandon or substantially revise its planned operations in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.

In Its 2nd Month, Ukraine Advance Wreaks Havoc, Exploits Russian Weaknesses

The Ukrainian southeastern counterattack continues to roll as Russian vulnerabilities in the region reveal new opportunities. The primary problem for the Kremlin's forces was that they held gray zone and even ostensibly occupied areas with inadequate troops, creating gaps which the Ukrainians have exploited.

The Russians have lost between 100 and 200 miles of territory, significant casualties and damaged equipment, as well as two battalion commanders killed by Ukrainian assault units and are in position to take the forward operating base of an entire Russian Combined Arms Army. JL

The Institute for the Study of War and David Axe in Trench Art report:

Ukraine's counteroffensive is now in its second month. After clearing Russians from 100 square miles of the gray zone east of Pokrovs’ke, advancing miles into Russian-controlled territory, Ukrainian paratroopers are within striking distance of Uspenivka, the forward base of the Russian 36th Combined Arms Army. Ukrainian infantry suppressed Russian recon and drone operators after infiltrating a sector where Russian forces did not have significant manpower. Ukraine has eliminated two Russian battalion commanders due to the dispersed, non-linear frontline. Russia did not have sufficient manpower and equipment to defend and develop advances along the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka sectors and need to commit additional resources as Ukrainian infantry and mechanized elements exploited gaps in Russian defenses

AI's Potential, Real Or Not, Is Providing An Excuse For Corporate Layoffs

Appending the word "wash" to any phrase implies a coverup. Although investors and big tech companies continue to hype AI while pouring more money into it, the reality is that its benefits remain elusive, at least on the potential scale which could deliver the returns VCs and tech bros were counting on. 

But one unforeseen implication of the tech adoption cycle is that corporate executives are using "AI washing" as an excuse to cut employees, a tactic always popular with Wall Street, especially during times like now when stock growth momentum has slowed. The result is a premature or even counterproductive trend which may result in harming the businesses employing this tactic to jack equity prices. This is because history teaches us the most effective technology adaptation may come from workforce experimentation and innovation, so if those people are laid off, productivity growth could be impeded. But never underestimate the power of an executive bonus tied to 'efficiency' metrics, which usually rely on employees being the costs cut. JL

Lila Schroff reports in The Atlantic:

Companies are blaming AI for job cuts, not because AI is ready to replace workers, but because it’s become fashionable. AI-induced job loss risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy (driven by) “AI-washing:” using the technology as an excuse to lay off workers. The cuts offer a way to shed workers while signaling they take AI seriously, not that AI is doing the work but, by cutting people, the company is AI-native. After Block announced layoffs, its stock price increased. Investors, who have unthinkable sums riding on AI, are antsy for signs it is boosting productivity. Once one company conducts AI-driven layoffs—even if premature—others feel pressure to do the same. (But) humans working with AI are more likely to produce good work than bots alone. Sloppy, hasty automation, which replaces workers with inferior (tech), is bad for businesses as premature AI layoffs backfire. Some of the “most promising AI applications will come from employees, not the C-suite." 

Ukraine Is Sweeping Roads With Lasers To Fry Russian Fiber-Optic Drones

In the constant, on-going battle for drone dominance, Ukraine has yet another devastating new innovation. 

With the growing use of ambush or 'waiter' drones, which lurk by the side of roads or on top of buildings, waiting for an unsuspecting target, Ukraine has developed a counter-technology which locates the presence of the lurker through light scanning recognition of the ambush drone's shape. It then destroys that waiting drone. So far, no effective counter to the counter has emerged. JL

David Hambling reports in Forbes:

 

Both sides use FPV ambush drones, called 'waiters.' The drones waits for a target, then strike. They are often uses to hit vehicles on supply routes to the front. Ambush drones are controlled by fiber optic cable spooled from the FPV, which are hard to cut. This has led to lasers. In drone piloting, "smoking the ESC" is burning out the Electronic Speed Controller which controls the motor. Excessive current causes the components burn out. But this latest development may be more advanced technology. A structured light scanner which analyses the distortion of the projected pattern to map the shape of objects below in 3D. An automated recognition system could pick up the shape of a parked drone. The drone is "fried" and inoperable.

Putin's Power Suffers From Ukraine Failure, Perception He's Powerless To Save Iran

There have been lots of articles in the past week claiming Putin is the primary beneficiary of the US-Israeli attack on Iran. But most of these arguments focus on the current rise in oil prices. 

The harsher reality is that this financial impact is temporary. What is permanent is that for the third time in recent months the leader of a major Russian ally - Syria, Venezuela and now, Iran - has fallen (with Cuba probably to follow) and Putin has been powerless to save them. This perception of weakness is corrosive. And while he can still project a threat to Europe, he would be unlikely to win were he foolish enough to think he could win a war. And the proof is that he still can't beat Ukraine, which was weaker than several of Europe's individual nations, let alone the alliance together. JL

Bob Seely reports in The Telegraph:

Oil prices have temporarily skyrocketed, helping replenish Russia's emptying coffers, but Putin's dreams of building an alliance to counter the West are being dismantled, one dictatorship at a time, by Donald Trump. Trump's and Putin's telephone call doesn’t change the fundamentals: the loss of allies damages Putin, but also the perception he’s powerless to save them. Putin has invested so much in co-opting Trump over Ukraine that he cannot treat the US as an enemy on Iran - or Syria, Venezuela, Cuba. The Kremlin wanted US-Ukraine negotiations to gain what Russian soldiers failed to win on the battlefield; it hasn’t. Putin knows his fake superpower status would be swept aside if he uses what little force Russia could muster to support Iran. He loved to boast Russia was one of the “sovereign” powers on earth. In reality, it is metamorphosing into a raw-material colony for China.

Continuous Ukraine 'Toll-Gate' Kill-Zone Extorts Huge 'Price' On Russian Troops

Ukraine has created what it is calling a continuous kill zone along crucial sectors of the front which are intentionally designed to act as a figurative 'toll gate' which extracts an 'extortionate' price from Russia in terms of casualties as well as destroyed weapons and vehicles.

While the aerial and land drone wall is a new Ukrainian innovation, the physical barriers of tank traps, mine fields, barbed wire entanglements etc are, ironically, based on the Russian 'Surovikin Line' which thwarted Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive. Having learned that hard lesson, the Ukrainians are now turning their hard-won knowledge against the Russians to even greater effect as this year's disastrous Russian offensive attempts have demonstrated. JL

  
Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

Pokrovsk, Dobropiliya, Huliaipole and Kostiantynivka are exacting extortionately expensive tolls on the Russians in personnel and materiél. The Ukrainians have kept the toll gate at Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad up for more than a year and a half now.  And still make huge daily collections from the Russians. Ukrainian commanders are focusing on constraining Russian maneuverability rather than clinging to ruined towns. A new continuous kill-zone system aims to stop rapid Russian assaults through layered trenches, wider fire lanes, and anti-vehicle obstacles. This is what modern trench warfare looks like.