Trump Gave Putin the World He Dreamed Of But Ukraine Exposed Russia As Too Weak To Take Advantage

Putin thought Trump was inferior to him in ruthlessness and intellect. He believed he was maneuvering the man he thought was his puppet (and many believe he has 'compromat' - compromising information on Trump). 

But the invasion of Ukraine which he thought Russia's vaunted military power would end in three days has turned into a war that has lasted longer than WWII and exposed Russia's incompetence, corruption and weakness. That military failure has led to further examination of Russia's economy which has revealed further inadequacies, particularly in technology and finance. In short, Trump has delivered the anti-European world he craved, but his country and he are too weak to be anything other than occasionally useful vassals to those countries which hold the real power. JL

Thomas Graham and Alan Cullison report in The Atlantic:

Trump is dismantling the order Putin had so long abhorred, and a new world is emerging. Putin thought he could rise to the top of a system in which raw economic and military might outweigh diplomacy and alliances. But the postwar order masked Russia’s vulnerabilities. The war in Ukraine only deepened Russia’s disadvantages. Before 2022, Russia was one of the world’s premier military powers—an assessment Ukraine has upended. Russia’s economy is one-quarter the size of China’s and America’s, and the gap is growing. It's an afterthought in the race for AI, biotechnology, and quantum computing. The country’s economy and technology are even losing ground to India’s. Putin has gotten the world he wished for—and it’s threatening to crush him.

Russia Thought It Would Break Ukrainians This Winter. The Opposite Happened

Despite the privations suffered by Ukrainians from the ongoing Russian attacks on heating and electricity in the dead of a very cold winter, a significant majority of Ukrainians not only oppose trading land for peace, but are not even anxious to have a referendum or election because they believe Putin and Trump will attempt to interfere and skew the results. 

If anything, the Russian bombing of civilian targets has made Ukrainians more determined and united. JL

Olena Mukhina reports in Euromaidan Press:

The Ukrainians have been living in a similar reality for 12 years. To understand their feelings, a foreigner must imagine a situation where someone is constantly trying to kill them for four years in a row. You can't get used to it, but you can grow tired of it. That's why Ukrainians began organizing "parties of resilience". (But) even in such conditions, do not want to trade their country for any capitulation deal proposed by Russia in the US-initiated talks over the end of the war. The immediate goal of Russia’s attacks is “so that in a month we sign peace on Putin’s terms and leave Donbas.” In the majority's view, the world must unite against him, as it once did against Hitler.

In January, Ukraine Killed 8,000 More Russians Than the Kremlin Conscripted

Ukraine is well on its way to achieving its stated strategic goal for 2026 of killing or disabling 50,000 Russians a month. That is the number, the Ukrainians believe, at which the Kremlin will no longer be able to sustain its invasion. 

In January, Ukrainian forces killed 30, 618 Russians, about 8,000 more than the Kremlin conscripted. In December, Ukraine inflicted casualties equal to the number conscripted or recruited but for the entire year of 2025, the Ukrainians killed or wounded more men than Russia added to its forces. The numbers are not trending in Moscow's direction. JL

RFU News reports:

Ukraine drove Russia's troop balance negative for the second time. Ukraine verified 30,618 Russian personnel kills during January, while Moscow managed to recruit or contract just 22,000 troops over the same period. The resulting deficit of 8,618 marks the second month when Russia lost more troops than it could replace. The goal is to ramp monthly kills to 50,000, "the optimal level at which Moscow will begin to seriously weigh what it is doing." The January numbers suggest Ukraine's forces are currently delivering about 60% of that target from drones alone, with room to scale further. Russia's full-year 2025 losses of 410,000 troops exceeded the 406,000 Moscow claimed to have recruited, with December's kills roughly matching recruitment. 

AI's First Productivity Surge Isn't Unsustainable As Work Load Increases: Research

Anything said about AI in this early stage - by historical standards - of its development must be considered against that reality: it could be 30 years before its impact is truly understood. But there are some initial results from contemporary research that can serve to guide organizations working to adopt and adapt. 

This report from researchers at Harvard suggests that there can be an initial productivity surge from AI adoption. The problem, they go on to reveal, is that such gains may be temporary because the impact and cost is neither fully understood nor sustainable. Engineers, developers and other professionals are only beginning to learn what introducing AI actually does to their work load and may, to some degree, need to change. There are also cost implications which may be greater than overly optimistic budget projections created to please AI-hungry bosses. Prudent executives understand that AI's promise is still being analyzed and are proceeding carefully in order to optimize positive long term impacts. This may be frustrating to tech leaders and investors, but is almost certainly the smart way forward. JL

 

Aruna Ranganathan and Xingqi Ye report in Harvard Business Review:

While leaders are focused on promised productivity gains, they may be surprised by the complex reality, and not see what these gains are costing them. Changes brought about by AI adoption can be unsustainable. Our research identified three types of work intensification: task expansion (widening job scope adding to workload), more multitasking (doing more at once and feeling more pressure), blurred lines between work and non-work. Workers find their workload has grown and feel stretched. That workload creep can in turn lead to cognitive fatigue, burnout, and weakened decision-making. The productivity surge enjoyed at the beginning can give way to lower quality work, turnover, and other problems. 

Ukraine Troops Get Same Day Drone Food Delivery; Contrast With Starving Russians

This winter, reports abound of Russian troops at the front literally starving for lack of supplies due to their chronically dysfunctional logistics. 

By contrast, frontline Ukrainian troops can request specific creature comforts both to enliven the monotony of military rations - and to keep up morale. Amazon could evidently learn a thing or two from the Ukrainians. JL

Oleksandr Chubko and Cassandra Vinograd report in the New York Times:

Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline can request same day airdrops of provisions by drone. Ukraine has mastered such deliveries out of necessity, in a war where drones are synonymous with death and destruction. With attack drones dominating the battlefield,  movements carry exceptional risk. That has made it harder to send supplies to frontline soldiers, a challenge Ukraine has increasingly met with  unmanned aircraft, dropped under cover of night. Much of the work is done by heavy Ukrainian Vampire drones, which can switch from killing Russians to delivering creature comforts. They fly in harsh weather, and are harder than other drones to shoot down. Each bag is unique, based on soldiers’ requests: Water. Apples. Newspaper. Crushed buckwheat. Instant noodles. Sugar. Condensed milk. Loose-leaf tea. Toilet paper. Onions. Hand warmers — lots.

Ukraine Daily Strikes On Logistics In 100s Starving Russian Front Forces

An unheralded aspect of Ukrainian strategy is having a significant impact on Russia's inability to launch effective advances this winter. 

The Ukrainians are specifically targeting logistic truck convoys, especially fuel tankers, to the extent that the losses have climbed into the triple digits daily. The result is that the poorly clothed and equipped Russians are less effective because they are cold, hungry and short on ammunition. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

The tally of Russian losses focuses on personnel, tanks, armored personnel carriers and artillery systems. Down the list is another category, barely remarked on vehicles and fuel tanks without which soldiers are left without the means to fight, they go hungry, are without potable water, are left cold and saddled with inoperative weapons. The daily unhappy tally for Russia in this category which at the onset of their invasion of Ukraine numbered in single digits has climbed into triple digits. Reliance by Russia on slower, more vulnerable networks is now hobbling Russia’s war effort on the battlefield… an army being slowly starved.

Kremlin Alleges Ukraine Counteroffensive To Cover Up Earlier False Gains Claims

Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia oblast are making opportunistic probing attacks to create local, tactical breakthoughs as the limits imposed on illegal Russian Starlink usage have disrupted their communications. 

But the Kremlin is claiming the Ukrainians have launched a counteroffensive with all the weight and power that implies. Knowledgeable observers believe these claims are exaggerations to cover up the Russians' earlier false boasts of advances which have been increasingly disproved by neutral analysts. The game, at this point, is to try to win perceptions of momentum as Trump pushes for a ceasefire in order to burnish his reputation prior to US midterm elections later this year. JL

David Kirichenko reports in Forbes:

Russia says Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia. The claim surfaced just as limits on Russian access to Starlink began disrupting frontline communications. (But) The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces fabricated reports of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in order to walk back earlier false claims about their own advances in the Huliaipole and Oleksandrivka sectors. Russian units overstated territorial gains and later invoked Ukrainian counterattacks as an explanation for why those positions weren't held. Rather than a map-changing push, Ukraine’s probing, local breakthroughs and attrition are degrading Russian logistics and forcing Moscow to plug gaps. “With Trump pushing for a deal, both sides know this is about shaping the political atmosphere in which a deal might be forced.”