16% Of Kyiv's Russian POWs Are Men Forcibly Drafted From Occupied Ukraine

16% of the "Russian" prisoners of war being held by Ukraine are actually Ukrainian citizens who were forcibly drafted into the Russian military. 6% of them are from Crimea alone. 

This reveals the deeper manpower challenges the Kremlin faces as these Ukrainians are mostly reluctant soldiers, many of whom surrendered as soon as the opportunity presented itself. JL

Roman Sheremeta reports in his social media feed and Oleksandr Shumilin reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Russia has forcibly mobilized more than 46,000 Ukrainians from temporarily occupied territories. It is also known that 16% of prisoners held in Ukrainian POW camps are Ukrainian citizens, and 6% of them are residents of Crimea. Russia has imposed mandatory mobilization quotas for each occupied region. A draft law is currently under consideration in the Ukrainian parliament that would allow Ukrainian citizens held in captivity in Ukraine to be released, remain in the country and fulfil their obligations.

New Ukrainian Commander Undoes Soviet Model To Drive Initiative, Flexibility

In office a month and a half, Ukraine's chief military commander, the 43 year old General Drapatyi, is moving quickly to dismantle the Ukrainian army's inherited Soviet command system and replacing by giving greater freedom and authority to younger brigade and corps commanders while also driving real authority to the sergeants who run the army day to day. 

These changes in the leadership model are contributing to the recent successes on the ground in Lyman, Kupiansk, Zaporizhzhia and elsewhere along the front as the Ukrainians demonstrate the flexibility, initiative and innovation that are becoming the hallmarks of this fighting force. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

The  Ukrainian Armed Forces, constituted in the Soviet mode could not last long against Russia. General Zaluzhnyi recognized the immediate need for militias and privately funded volunteer units to meet the initial onslaught and that stood in the breach as the armed forces gathered itself. Then came Ukraine’s corps system which gave commanders independence and flexibility. General Syrskyi appointed young proven leaders from the volunteer units. The young commanders rewarded that confidence by fighting the Russians to a frazzle. Some of Ukraine’s current best units like the 1st Corps and the 3rd Corps are led by men who were civilian volunteers. General Drapatyi has taken the decentralization drive further to unwind a Soviet command model by granting combat-tested NCOs real authority, clear career paths, and expanded responsibilities. Drapatyi is shifting a centralized officer-dominated system to one where sergeants have decision-making power.

Russia's Arctic Gas Production Capitol Hit By Ukraine In Deepest Strike of the War

Ukrainian drones struck Russia's gas production capitol in a remote section of Siberia, 1,740 miles away, the deepest Ukrainian strike of the war. 

This latest attack demonstrated that the reach of Ukraine's drones continues to improve and that no Kremlin asset is beyond Kyiv's ability to target it. Ukraine has now knocked out 43% of Russia's refinery capacity, a devastating economic loss for Putin's ability to continue the war. JL

Antonia Langford reports in The Telegraph:

Ukraine hit an industrial facility in Siberia located 1,740 miles from the border, the deepest strike it has achieved on Russian soil. Kyiv's drones targeted the remote city of Novy Urengoy, in the Yamalo-Nenets region, causing a fire. The region, Russia's gas capital, accounts for 80% of the country's gas production. The intended target was the Novy Urengoy condensate treatment plant, which has a capacity of some 19.5 million tonnes of raw material a year. On Wednesday, drone threats were also activated for the first time in Khanty-Mansiysk in west-central Siberia, located some 1,550 miles from the Ukrainian border. Residents were told to remain inside, stay away from windows and keep to safe locations until the air raid was lifted. As of this summer, Ukraine has hit almost every Russian refinery within the range of its drones, knocking out 43% of refinery capacity

Ukraine's Lyman Offensive A Strategic Victory Exposing Russian Fighting Weakness

Ukraine's advance in the Lyman sector is a far more strategic victory than initially believed. Not only have approximately 100 square miles of territory occupied by Russian forces over the course of a year now been liberated, but elements of two Russian divisions have been surrounded and the remaining Russian forces in the area have been forced to retreat to defensive lines they last held almost a year and a half ago. This Ukrainian gain also disrupts and delays the Kremlin's hopes for attacks on Ukraine's Fortress Belt.

The Ukrainian advance also demonstrated the efficacy of new offensive tactics which combine drone and infantry coordination to weaken and then eliminate Russian positions. All in all, it is a signature victory which unfolded over a period of months during which the Russians were unable to stop it. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

As a result of Ukraine's Lyman advance, territory formerly under Russian control now Ukrainian, varies from 95-135 square miles liberated north of Lyman. Elements of two Russian Motor Rifle Divisions – the 2nd and 14th – are cut off and partially surrounded in that pocket. Russian forces not encircled have been forced to retreat 6-9 miles to an old defensive line to the east, along the Zherebets. Ukrainian attacks have been methodical and follow a consistent template. The first has been to mass drones targeted Russian positions, artillery, logistics, and comms, inflicting casualties and damage. Supplies and replacements are high-priority targets. Ukrainian infantry then moves in to eliminate remaining Russian resistance. Ukraine’s forces demonstrate they are capable of systematically gaining ground. The Ukrainian offensive lasted three months, meaning Russian forces had time to come up with a counter to the attack tactics, but failed.

Ukrainian M1A1 Abrams Tank Survived 20 FPV Drone Strikes With New Protections

A Ukrainian M1A1 tank survived 20 strikes from Russian FPV drones and survived. The tank was protected by additional cage armor and active (outwardly explosive) protective blocks. 

This experience suggests that if more powerful asymmetric defensive solutions can be developed at scale, tanks may be able to return to their preeminent pre-drone battlefield role. Among the other solutions found to be effective is hedgehog protection which is particularly useful against fiber-optic drones because the hedeghogs can cut those drones' fiber-optic cables. JL

Defense Express reports:

A Ukrainian M1A1 tank withstood hits from 20 enemy FPV drones. This vehicle was additionally covered with cage armor and active protection blocks, underscoring the high survivability level of this vehicle and quality of improvised protection solutions. Hedgehog protection is recognized as even more effective in terms of tank survivability  In an interview, one of the surviving tankers expressed confidence that if they manage asymmetric solution, tanks will be able to return their dominant role on battlefield. The very fact of improvised solutions in various variations, specifically on Abrams, already extends the tanks' life on the modern battlefield.

30% of 'Russian Troops' On Lyman Front Are Foreigners, Eager To Surrender

Ukrainian units fighting on the Lyman front, where they have pushed the Russians back so far that a once threatening salient has been eliminated, are reporting that as many as 30% of the 'Russians' they are fighting are foreigners from Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.

The implication is that the Kremlin's recruitment woes are more serious than has been reported. This also explains some of the Ukrainians' success in the sector because many of these non-Russian fighters were forced into serving under false pretenses so are more likely to surrender when given the chance than are native Russians. JL

Ivan Khomenko reports in United 24:

On the Lyman front, foreigners now account for roughly 30% of personnel in newly deployed Russian units. The proportion of foreign nationals serving in Russian formations within Ukraine's 66th Mechanized Brigade's area of responsibility has continued to increase. Many come from African, Latin American  and Southeast Asian countries and were recruited into Russian service through deception. When Russia deploys a fresh company into the brigade’s area of responsibility, approximately one platoon can consist entirely of foreign personnel. These recruits generally receive limited military preparation before being deployed on combat missions. The brigade has linked this practice to an increase in cases of foreign fighters surrendering to Ukrainian forces. 

Drone Strikes Are Pounding Russian Economy, Raising War's Cost For Putin

There are two elements to this story. The first is that the fact of the damage being inflicted by Ukraine's long range strikes on Russia's economy can no longer be considered some quixotic anomaly. They hurt and Ukraine is now in a position to make them keep hurting, raising the long term financial impact on the Kremlin and its ability to continue waging a wasteful war. 

The second aspect of note is that when the Wall Street Journal and other respected media like it highlight these costs, it means that global decision-makers have taken note so that this failure on Russia's part is part of the consensus impacting perceptions of relative strength, which ultimately drive resource allocation and investment. Which is a long way of saying that, to some degree, Putin has already lost, even with China's backing and even if Russia doesn't actually lose the war in the classic, historical sense. The only question is how the final endgame gets resolved so the world's economy can move on. JL

Alexander Osipovich reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine's long-range drone strikes are inflicting pain on the most strategic sectors of the Russian economy. The costs are adding up. The Ukrainian effort is being felt by ordinary Russians who were previously shielded from the war’s consequences. The broader economy was already slowing after an earlier wartime boom. The most damaging aspect of Ukraine’s drone campaign has been its targeting of oil refineries, which led to fuel shortages and rationing measures over the summer. The price of gas is up 19% this year. The run-up has confounded efforts by Russia’s central bank to curb inflation, which is running at 6% annually. Attacks on ecommerce logistics hubs have caused more than $10 billion in damage to infrastructure and goods, and will result in at least $12 billion in lost sales over the next 12 months. There were 993 airport closures across Russia in August, a roughly fivefold jump from half a year earlier