A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Aug 28, 2026

Russia's 76th Air Assault Remnants Withdrawn From Pokrovsk After "Bleeding Out"

Pokrovsk was supposedly taken by Russia a year ago. But the news that the Kremlin's elite 76th Air Assault Division has been deemed 'combat ineffective' and is being withdrawn for reorganization says not.

This reveals the bankruptcy of both the Kremlin's overall war plan as well as the ineffectiveness of using trained, elite units as common cannon fodder. JL

Owen Warner reports:
Russia’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division was among the few units Moscow could still call elite. Now, say reports from the Pokrovsk front, the remnants of the division are pulling back from their forward positions, shredded by months of futile, grinding assaults. The 76th VDV was ground into the meat and could no longer sustain the offensive. Its manpower shrank, its forward assault squads were rotated and raw replacements were brought in. It takes hundreds of trained specialists, months of preparation and equipment to rebuild a top-notch combat unit. Replacing them with hastily called up soldiers wearing the same patches isn’t the same. Now even Russia’s “elite” forces are unable to withstand a system in which they are disposable. The tragedy of these elite units is not that they failed to capture the entire Pokrovsk region. It is only that they revealed that Russia’s war has become unsustainable.

Ground Robot With Twin Kalashnikovs, Robotic Turret, Combat Tested By Ukraine

Unlike Russia's fanciful and often desperately defensive designs, Ukraine's latest technological innovations are being created with the idea of increasing offensive effectiveness and lethality. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:
Ukraine has begun combat testing armed unmanned ground vehicles equipped with robotic turrets and Kalashnikov-pattern rifles. Using standard Kalashnikov rifles reduces production costs and makes it easier to rapidly scale deployment of the armed ground robotic systems along the front. The system is built on a four-wheel chassis with airless tires and features a protected hull. Its weapons module features a twin turret capable of mounting two rifles at once, significantly increasing the volume of fire during assault and defensive operations against enemy infantry. There have been confirmed cases of the unmanned ground vehicles being successfully used against enemy ambushes involving drones.

Ukraine's Best Young "Mustang" Generals Tapped To Lead Donbas Fighting

In a sign that a younger generation of war-toughened leaders who have spurned the Soviet training of their predecessors have now taken over running Ukraine's increasingly successful war against Russia, Ukraine has appointed two generals in their 30s and 40s to lead the fighting in the crucial Donbas front. 

With a new Ukrainian army chief of staff also in his 40s, this signals that commanders who came of age fighting the Russians are now applying that experience and leadership to finishing the fight against the Kremlin's stalled invasion. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:
President Zelensky named a pair of young generals known for proved battlefield skills to command forces holding Ukraine’s Donbas region. Brig. Gen. Denys Prokopenko, 35, a Kyiv native who studied  to become an English teacher, first fought Russian troops in 2014 as a volunteer. He is best known in Ukraine for leading a defense of  Mariupol, and later for building the “Azov” Corps into the one of the Ukraine’s hardest-fighting units. Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky, 47, a Kharkiv native, is a trained historian. He first saw combat as a volunteer in 2014. In 2022 Biletsky raised a unit fighting in defense of Kyiv. The unit converted to regular army, expanding into the 3rd Army Corps. Both Prokopenko and Biletsky are a generation younger than the Soviet-trained officers that led the Armed Forces in 2022.

Russia Has Lost the Military Initiative In Ukraine

This is an unsparing, even harsh, assessment of Russia's performance and status at this point in its four-plus year invasion of Ukraine. The highlights are that Russia's ground offensive has stalled, producing the lowest rates of advance of any army in any war in the modern era. 

As if that were not bad enough, Russia has actually lost net territory when compared to Ukraine's counteroffensive gains. These failures come against a backdrop rising casualties with eight Russians lost for every Ukrainian and which now consistently outpace the Kremlin's ability to replace them with new recruits by several thousand per month and that gap growing. In short, Russia has not just lost the military initiative but has likely surrendered any hope of turning the situation around given the incompetence and corruption of its military, as well as the desperation of the Russian leadership, which knows the only way it can survive is by keeping the war going. The visit of the US Director of National Intelligence this week reportedly had several purposes, including a request for Moscow to stop assisting Iran, but the primary focus was to urge Putin to stop the war before they lose it so that the Trump Administration is not then left without an important ally, which would be embarrassing and politically damaging. Yes, it has come to that. JL

Seth Jones and Riley McCabe report in the Center for Strategic and International Studies:

Russia has lost the military initiative in Ukraine as Kyiv has orchestrated an increasingly successful campaign of short-, medium-, and long-range strikes against Russian military and economic targets. Russia’s ground offensive has largely stalled, with an average rate of advance of 50 meters per day around Kostiantynivka, 70 meters per day around Pokrovsk, and 90 meters per day around Sloviansk. These are among the slowest rates of advance in any war over the last century. Russia’s territorial control in Ukraine shrank in the spring of 2026. Russian forces lost more ground than they captured in both April and May, a net loss of roughly 400 square kilometers—yet another sign of Russia’s military struggles. Russia’s monthly casualty rates of over 30,000 per month in 2026 exceed Russia’s recruitment rates of 27,000 new recruits per month. The Russia-Ukraine casualty rate has risen to 8:1 in the first half of 2026, up from between 2:1 and 3:1 for much of the war.

Nvidia To Buy Open Source AI Hack Victim Hugging Face For $12.9 Billion

In yet another of the circular deals which have broadened and solidified Nvidia's dominance of the AI market, the company is acquiring Hugging Face, a leader in the open source AI model marketplace. That Hugging Face was the AI company hacked by OpenAI's supposedly rogue AI adds to the curious nature of the acquisition, as some are suggesting an attempt to tamp down criticism of growing perceptions that AI is a threat.

The implication is that Nvidia is not about to let open source AI, which has emerged as a less expensive alternative to increasingly expensive models from Anthropic, OpenAI and others, undermine either its leadership or its business model. While this may seem like a fairly typical strategy to consolidate financial and marketing power in the industry, it raises further questions about the future growth prospects of AI since Nvidia has essentially established itself as the determinant of market fundamentals. This sort of self-funding for customers and suppliers suggests a closed loop which is rarely the source of long term growth. JL

Beatrice Nolan reports in Fortune:

The deal would give Nvidia a major foothold in open-source AI at a moment when open-source developers are increasingly closing the gap with closed systems from companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI. Hugging Face is a repository that hosts open-source AI models, as well as benchmark evaluations, and data sets used for AI training and testing.

The deal would also help Nvidia protect its dominant position in AI chips and keeps

more of the market tied to Nvidia’s hardware. Nvidia has already invested tens of billions of dollars in its own open-source models. Hugging Face has been in the middle of a major media story over the last few months after OpenAI disclosed in July that its own AI models were behind an autonomous cyberattack on the platform

Aug 27, 2026

Delta Battle Command Software Is Ukraine's Most Effective, Feared Weapon

It used to be said that Russian soldiers on the Ukrainian battlefield could run but they couldn't hide. Now they can't do either thanks to the increasingly AI-enhanced Delta battle-management software system which has made the entire front a kill zone for 20 to 50 kilometers on either side.

The Delta system collects and collates intelligence from every source available, then provides it to relevant units so they can act in a coordinated fashion. It is currently the most effective, sophisticated and lethal system in the world. JL

Constant Mehut and Olha Konovalova report in the New York Times:
Ukrainian troops watching from an underground command post on the eastern front logged a Russian soldier’s coordinates into a computer. This automatically placed a marker on a digital battlefield map, visible to all units in the vicinity. Within minutes, three attack drones were in the air, closing in. The software pulls drone videos, radio intercepts, ground sensors, soldiers' reports and satellite images into a single platform that detect targets. The system then distributes the targets to thousands of reconnaissance and attack drones to create a miles-wide “kill zone” where anything that moves can be hit within seconds. Delta has shrunk the kill chain — the time between spotting a target and hitting it. It once took 20 minutes from a enemy position report to the first artillery fired. Now, it’s three to five minutes. “The side that can make decisions faster will have the advantage in war.”

Ukraine's Strike On Samara Space Center Disrupts Kremlin Plan To Replace Starlink

In yet another example of Ukraine's strategic intelligence, Kyiv's forces struck the Russian 'space city' in Samara where its rockets and many of the electronic components that power its satellites are built and tested. Ukraine's battlefield success this year has been dramatically amplified by Russia's loss of Starlink usage. Once it lost access to Starlink communications, the Kremlin had decreed that its own replacement be developed. That work was being conducted in Samara and was reportedly close to achieving fruition.

By destroying the labs and manufacturing facilities where the work was being done, Ukraine has now derailed and delayed the Starlink replacement effort, perhaps for a significant amount of time. JL

Raj K reports in Medium:

On 15 August, Ukraine used a special modified weapon system to carry out an extremely precise and destructive attack on Russia’s Samara city. This attack directly targeted Russia’s space complex where its main Soyuz 2 rockets are assembled. Samara has been the historical center of Russian aerospace engineering. The Soyuz 2 rocket is Russia’s main launch vehicle, through which it sends its military, spy, and civilian satellites into space. With the destruction of the assembly and testing facilities, its production has completely stopped. The most sensitive part of any rocket is its navigation and electronic control system. Because of this hard strike on Samara’s testing hub, Russia’s entire space program has gone offline for the time being.