The Growing Perception - and Reality - That Ukraine Has Checkmated Russia

As 2026 approaches its midpoint, Russia now faces two challenges to what was once believed to be its advantage over Ukraine: its ground war is not just stymied, but increasingly appears to be losing ground as its hold on Ukrainian territory has suffered net losses for two months in a row. 

And as importantly, Ukrainian drone range and effectiveness has improved to such a degree that no area in European Russia (eg from the Urals to the western border with NATO countries) is safe from attack, as the Ukrainian destruction of Russian fighter-bomber aircraft 1,700 kms from the front just demonstrated. On top of that, economic analysts are predicting that the Trump administration's attempt to help Russia by relaxing some oil sanctions will prove insufficient to save its economy, in part due to Ukraine's relentless additional attacks. It is small wonder that Vladimir Putin is reported to be hiding in a bunker somewhere, afraid of his oligarchs and military. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Ukraine has stepped up its military effectiveness this year on the ground and in long-range strike operations. This is depriving Russia of momentum on the frontline, and in the past month it has lost ground. Russia is also losing the initiative in long-range strike operations, as Ukrainian drones range over larger parts of Russia and have a greater impact on oil exports. Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign has crossed a new threshold. The successful targeting of Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft at Chelyabinsk at 1,700 kilometres demonstrates that Russia’s aviation fleet has no truly safe rear area within its European territory. This will force Russia to disperse assets further, increasing logistics costs and reducing operational sortie rates at a time when airpower is central to its offensive campaign.

Chinese Courts Rule Twice In 6 Months That AI Cannot Be Excuse For Layoffs

These rulings are significant for several reasons. Chinese acceptance of strict, one-party rule is predicated on the assumption that the trade-off is better a better socio-economic life for the majority of citizens. AI's potential threat to millions of jobs thus threatens Chinese Communist Party domination, which the government will not tolerate. No court would issue such an important opinion without the Party's approval, thus signaling that China has no intention of letting AI disrupt its peoples' lives so drastically. 

But the ruling also undercuts two core arguments about AI in the US: the first, that AI does lead to massive layoffs, which will increase corporate profits (and executive bonuses) and that the US cannot allow government regulation of AI because it will permit China to 'win' the AI race. The implication for AI in the US is that unfettered job destruction, which was already facing political headwinds, will probably have to proceed more prudently in order to avoid even more draconian regulation. JL

Aaron Mak reports in Politico and Lucy Buchholz reports in BusinessChief:

A Hangzhou court ruled last week that it was illegal for a company to demote, then dismiss a senior tech worker and replace him with AI, the second such decision to come from China’s courts since December. The decision underscores that AI-driven restructuring must be grounded in clear, lawful justification, rather than using automation as a rationale for demotions or dismissals. The rulings come as China faces economic challenges pushing it to move aggressively to stymie AI labor displacement. The country has long relied on acceptance of one-party rule to assure quality of life and prosperity, (so) AI threatens to upend the population’s well-being. (But) the rulings (also) undercut a core argument in the U.S. that forceful safeguards on AI will  cause it to lose the AI race with China. "China is being tougher on tech companies than the US, so the idea that America should not regulate tech because it’ll hurt (versus) China is completely negated by this.” 

As Ukraine Triples Drone Strikes, Russians' Fear To Move, Lose Territory

Not only has the Kremlin's latest offensive stalled, the Russians have actually lost territory for two months in a row. And the primary reason is that mid-range Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian supplies, troop concentrations and logistics have tripled, effectively crippling the Russian war effort.

The Ukrainians have expanded the gray zone to as much as 200 kilometers from the front in some sectors, making travel to the zero line an extreme risk for the Kremlin's troops, thereby starving Russian units of initiative, as well as food, ammunition and other essentials. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

In March, the Ukrainians' mid-range drones struck Russian targets a staggering 288 times, blowing up Russian air defenses, bases, ammunition and equipment depots and electrical infrastructure. “Ukraine’s mid-range strike operations are becoming faster, broader and more systematic.” Radio jamming and other forms of electronic warfare don't work against A.I. drones, as they don't rely on radio signals to search and destroy. Ukrainians are starving Russian regiments of supplies and manpower before the regiments even get a chance to engage Ukrainian defenders along the gray zone—and Russia's spring 2026 offensive is the first one in this war to stall before it started. The Russians are  actually falling back, losing 67 square kms of Ukrainian territory in April after losing 31 kms in March. For the Russians, "just reaching the front line has become very risky." 

Putin Increasingly Fears Drones, Assassination and A Coup: Leaked Intel

Moscow's traditional Victory Day parade will not have armored vehicles, or many troops - nor will it have as many invited guests. But it will have anti-drone netting in Red Square.

While much of this is due to the beating the Russian military has taken in Ukraine, there is reported to be another reason as well: Putin is apparently deeply paranoid about an assassination attempt and coup, possibly initiated by drones. This is not a sign that he is 'winning' in Ukraine - or anywhere else. JL

Julia Struck-Feschenko reports in the Kyiv Post:

Russia President Vladimir Putin reportedly fears an assassination attempt, including the possible use of drones, as well as a potential coup attempt from within Russia’s political and security elite. Heightened secrecy around Putin is reflected in changes, including the absence of invitations for State Duma deputies to this year’s Victory Day parade in Red Square. These claims are based on a leaked European intelligence report cited by Russian outlet Vazhnyye Novosti and CNN.

Ukraine Is Now Shaping the War. Russia's Strategic Situation Is Worsening

The story that Ukrainian troops are taking ground from the Russians is no longer in question. But the larger narrative is that in 2026, Ukraine has seized the initiative and is forcing the Russians to react to the Ukrainian shaping of the conflict. 

With a larger military and population, the Russians initially drove the Ukrainians to respond, a situation that lasted for three years. And despite the disparities, the Ukrainians handled that subordinate positioning brilliantly. Not only did Russia fail to take its initial objectives, it has been fought to a standstill. But now, something even more momentous appears to be happening: Ukraine is shaping the conflict to its own strategic needs - and the Kremlin seems powerless to change that situation - and despite the withdrawal of US support for Kyiv. Which is bad news for Russia and the US. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The battlefront has seen Russian advances all but stop, with Ukraine liberating parcels of land. This change has been brought about with declining Ukrainian casualties and rising Russian ones— an indicator of initiative change. The land war is resembling more what the Ukrainians want it to be than the Russians. The Ukrainians adjusted more quickly and efficiently to the realities of this battlefield and the Ukrainians are bringing into play more rapidly the better systems to fight within it. They are also tailoring their whole war effort (mid-range strike) to erode Russian combat possibilities. The Ukrainians have the initiative. They are shaping the land war and the ranged war. Russia will now have to adjust or the Russian strategic situation will get worse.

Anthropic Says Software Engineers Will Be Obsolete. But For Now It's Hiring 100s and Paying Over $500K

Despite the increasingly ominous warnings that software engineering jobs face obsolescence, AI firms are still hiring them - and at impressive compensation levels. 

Part of the reason may be that this is an inflection point which underscores the transition: more engineers are needed in order to hasten their professional doom. But job elimination has also been a major AI selling point, so continuing to emphasize it even as more of them are currently needed and may not end soon is part of the hype. The reality seems to be that as with much of what is being claimed about AI, is that nothing is certain. JL

Medium reports and Ankita Garg reports in India Today:

Even as AI-driven job warnings continue, Anthropic's hiring activity paints a different picture. The company currently has 429 open roles in engineering, spanning positions such as Research Engineer, Full-Stack Software Engineer, Performance Engineer, Engineering Manager and more. There are several high-value roles, with salaries ranging between $320,000 and $405,000. Building and improving AI systems still requires deep technical expertise, something companies like Anthropic are actively investing in. What makes this moment interesting — and slightly uneasy — is the gap between what is being said and what is being done. The warnings are about a future where fewer engineers may be needed. The hiring shows that in the present, they are still very much in demand.

'Dozens' of Chechen Akhmats Eliminated In Surprise Ukraine Sumy Attack

Observers of Russia's invasion could be forgiven if they had largely written off the Chechens as social media-happy poseurs who preferred posting to fighting. 

But they continue to emerge as the Kremlin's dirty work specialists: assigned to make sure others do the actual fighting while they loll threateningly behind the lines in relative safety. As the kill zone has expanded, the concept of relative safety has contracted, meaning that, as this latest example of Ukrainian ruthlessness reveals, no place is really safe anymore for Russian military forces. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Dozens of Russian Akhmat unit fighters were eliminated in a special operation conducted in Sumy Oblast. The operation was carried out by fighters of the HUR's Shamanbat unit, Chechen soldiers fighting on Ukraine's side, together with the 104th Territorial Brigade. A former Akhmat soldier received a listening device via FPV drone and installed it in the Akhmat command's meeting room. This allowed Ukrainian operatives to record the conversations of the unit's command staff, enabling strikes on Kadyrovite concentration areas. Akhmat suffered its heaviest losses since the beginning of the invasion as a result of the operation: 41 killed and 87 wounded. Over a hundred more are considered missing in action.