A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Sep 12, 2026

Russia's Ukraine War Has Expanded To Battle For Russian Homeland

With its increasingly impactful long range strikes on Russian economic targets, Ukraine has succeeded in an accomplishment few knowledgeable observers would have thought possible even a year ago: it has changed the 'strategic geography' of the conflict from a battle on Ukrainian soil to a war that now encompasses and affects the Russian homeland. JL

Jonathan Riley reports in The Geopolitical Economist:
Russian net gain of only five square miles from 4 August to 1 September 2026, in strategic terms, are not the gains of an army on the verge of victory; but of an army making costly, local progress across a heavily contested war zone. Russian forces can infiltrate and pressure Ukrainian defenses, but cannot converting that into significant breakthroughs. Statistics from the last six months do not show Russia achieving decisive success. The slowing rate of advance suggests Ukrainian defenses, drone warfare, and attrition are imposing real limits. Ukraine has enough technological initiative to make the war costly for Russia far beyond the front. Its deep-strike campaign and software-enabled targeting have changed the strategic geography of the war. Russian refineries, airfields, depots and command nodes are increasingly part of the battlespace. This means Russia cannot treat the war as only in Ukraine, but as a campaign fought in the Russian homeland as well.

Ukrainian Armored Truck Drives On After 5 Mines, 3 Drone Hits, Losing Front Wheels

This is the second example, in a matter of weeks, in which a Ukrainian armored vehicle or tank was able to continue operating despite repeated drone strikes. 

In the case of the Turkish made armored vehicle, it survived five land mines, three FPV drones strikes, losing its two of its front wheels - but was able to keep its operators and soldier passengers safe - while getting them out of danger. The implication is that Ukraine appears to be developing and deploying new and more effective defensive protection for its armored vehicles. JL

Sofiia Syngaivska reports in Defense Express:
A Ukrainian, Turkish-made 4×4 armored vehicle sustained major damage in combat but remained capable of moving after losing two of its front wheels. Despite sustaining repeated damage from five landmines and three FPV drone strikes, the vehicle continued to provide protection for those inside. The attacks caused severe damage to the vehicle, including the loss of two front wheels. The damage did not completely immobilize the Cobra II. Its driver, who is with Ukrainian Defense Intelligence's Artan unit, was able to keep the vehicle moving and reach a safe location, allowing the crew and other personnel to escape the danger zone. 

Pervasive Falsified Army Reports to Putin Aided Ukraine's Lyman Victory

As more information becomes available about the scale of Ukraine's counteroffensive victory over Russia in the Lyman sector, the strategic implications also come into sharper focus. 

Not only has Ukraine recaptured hundreds of  kilometers of territory while inflicting ever more gruesome casualties on the Russians, but the Kremlin's Fortress Belt offensive has been significantly disrupted, probably for months. Ironically, the Russian command has contributed to the Ukrainian success. It's pervasive culture of false reporting in order to deflect the Kremlin's displeasure has led to misallocation of limited Russian resources and reinforcements which gave the Ukrainians the ability to attack opportunistically in areas where their intelligence revealed mismatches between Russian and Ukrainian forces that benefitted Kyiv's troops. JL 

Ryder Blackthorn reports in Frontline Signal and Decimus reports in Daily Kos:
methodical counteroffensive north and northeast of Lyman has yielded results. Russian bloggers are openly acknowledging a deteriorating front,  that troops have withdrawn from positions as cutting off the pincer pointed at Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and forcing the Russians to retreat across the Zherebets river is a huge win for Ukraine. Zelensky made a point to mention it had upended Russia’s plans regarding Donbas during the recent meeting in Kyiv with Witkoff-Kushner. When the commander of Ukraine's 3rd Corps published a video of himself walking through  Sviatohirsk, the problem for Moscow is that six days prior Putin had publicly announced Russian forces had captured it. This disconnect highlights a structural problem within the Russian army: a pervasive culture of falsified reporting. Those lies are now creating real operational problems for Russian troops including misdirected artillery, misguided reinforcements and blinded flanks.

Will the Fears Of Inside AI Workers Finally Lead To Regulatory Safeguards?

Highly paid AI researchers resigning to sound the warning about AI's potential lethality is worrisome. Congress more seriously considering regulation during a ultra-pro-business administration is a sign of rising concern. Other politicians of both parties finding that campaigning against AI is a winning theme as states start to ban data centers is yet another indication of both the threat and the growing opposition. But when you can buy the tee shirt on Amazon, you know AI has a huge problem...

More seriously, it is likely that the warnings are starting to be heeded more attentively by authorities. In the US, it is unlikely that anything will be done about AI unless the Democrats take at least one house of Congress in the November mid-tern elections because Big Tech has simply bribed too many senior officials in the administration for it to turn against AI. JL

Cris Tolomia reports in Quartz, Ashley Capoot reports in CNBC and Jared Perlo reports in NBC:
Researchers at OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI firms have begun speaking out in support of slowing AI development, following the resignation of Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon, who warned this week that AI could kill all humans. (And) citing fears that AI systems may soon spiral out of human control, potentially killing everyone, two more researchers from Anthropic and Google DeepMind recently left their positions to sound the alarm about risks from AI. An open letter published in July and signed by 1,400 AI researchers — including some from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and Google— called on the U.S. government to manage the pace of AI development. More than 20 members of Congress have called for new or stronger AI regulation this week. An AGI safety researcher at Anthropic said no viable scientific plan yet exists to manage risks from self-improving AI. “There are no adults in the room.” 

Sep 11, 2026

Dozens Of Russians Killed by Ukraine Border Guards In Failed Kharkiv Oblast Assault

Russian forces, under pressure to demonstrate some sort of forward momentum, however fleeting or even imaginary, have stepped up attacks north of Kharkiv. 

But the result has just been additional casualties as Ukrainian drone forces and border guards find and then eliminate the small groups of Russian infantry attempting to burrow into bombed out basements in order to claim an advance. JL

Elza Diachenko reports in Gwara Media:
Russian forces intensified their assaults in northern Kharkiv oblast. Over the past week, the 1st Mobile Border Guard detachment killed or injured 155 Russian soldiers in the area. Ahead of the elections in Russia, Russian armed forces “need to show some results,” which is why they became more active north of Kharkiv. Russia has recently claimed the capture of several Ukrainian settlements north of Kharkiv, which are in fact under the control of Ukraine's border guards. "They are moving in small infantry groups and trying to gather in any cellars that have survived in settlements near the border."

This Year, Ukraine Has Stopped Russia From Gaining the Breakthrough It Needed

Sometimes victory can be defined by denying the enemy what they want. The Ukrainians have done more than that this year, as they have actually taken back more territory than the Russians have gained in several sectors at various times. 

But the primary win may have been disrupting the Kremlin's 2026 plans early and conclusively, robbing them of both a tangible gain and of a negotiating and public relations win which further cemented European support while also serving to deny Putin the more fulsome backing of the Trump administration. All in all, an important set of achievements. JL

Owen Warner reports in Medium:
Russia entered the spring and summer of 2026 with one thing it badly needed from the battlefield: movement. Ukraine did not stop every Russian advance. It stopped those advances from becoming the breakthrough Moscow needed. Russia’s Spring-Summer 2026 offensive failed to achieve operational maneuver or collapse Ukrainian lines. (And) Ukrainian forces liberated at least 129.81 square kilometers during counteroffensive operations, particularly in the Lyman and Oleksandrivka directions. An army attacking in a major offensive would like to push the defender back more quickly than the defender can recover.  Russia can still move forward. It can still capture villages. It can still concentrate enormous firepower on a single area of the map. However, Ukraine has become increasingly good at making every step costly and preventing the next one.

"I Forget I Lost A Leg:" How Wounded Ukrainians Return As Drone Operators

In the Ukrainian military - if not in the Russian - losing a limb generally qualifies for an exemption to not have to serve anymore. But many Ukrainian soldiers prefer to volunteer to return to service. 

They have a number of options to do so, but one that is increasingly popular is joining a drone unit either as a pilot, operator or as an intelligence, recon, surveillance or target acquisition specialist. It is an important way to continue to apply one's knowledge and experience. JL

Zoriana Katola reports in the Euromaidan Press:
former air-assault soldier, stepped on a anti-personnel mine in July 2025 during a combat mission in Kharkiv Oblast. Another lost part of his lower leg after stepping on a petal mine in the same oblast. Both underwent amputations, rehabilitation, and prosthetic fitting, then chose to return to keep serving in ISTAR (intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance). The operator watches drone feeds, tracks friendly and enemy positions, and passes targets to strike teams. Over 100,000 amputations have been performed in Ukraine over four years of war. These two men show one route back into the war for soldiers who cannot return to the ground: the screens of a drone-saturated battlefield, where what they learned on foot still counts.