Operation Vivaldi's Phase 2 Liberates More Land As Russian Casualties Grow

Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi counter offensive in the Lyman sector continues to add recaptured territory while reports indicate that Russian casualties are increasing at a faster rate than in phase one. 

With elements of Ukraine's 3rd Corps now crossing the Zherebets River and advancing in Luhansk oblast, the looming question is how Ukraine further disrupt and degrade Russian forces. JL

Dmytro Shumlianskyi reports in Militarnyi:

During the second phase of Operation Vivaldi in Donetsk, Ukraine’s forces liberated  Shandryholove and Derylove and took full control of Drobysheve. The 3rd Army Corps and attached units have already returned 125 square kms to Ukrainian control, including 50 square kms of  deoccupied territory and 40 square kms of which were liberated. More than 800 Russian servicemen, including wounded and captured, have been eliminated in the second phase while total Russian Vivaldi losses amount to more than 3,000. 3rd Corps drone units carried out 36,000 strikes targeting Russian logistics: first, strike drones isolated up to 50 kilometers from the line of contact, after which the strike zone was expanded to 120 kms. Hits on fuel depots in Luhansk forced the shut down of a pipeline supplying fuel from Russia. Ammunition depots, communications and command post strikes increased the equipment evacuation distance for enemy units by 250 kilometers.

Russian Push Towards Dobropillia 'Smashed' By Ukraine Combined Arms Force

A combined arms force similar in composition to the Operation Vivaldi counteroffensive now advancing in Luhansk has stopped a Russian attempt to assault Druzhkivka, in the Dobropillia sector. 

What is particularly interesting about this is that the Ukrainians again deployed a hand-picked and specially trained assortment of units, comprising infantry, drone warfare, special ops and armor to plan and execute the counterattack. This appears to be an emerging and successful template for surprising and reducing Russian attack attempts. JL

Ivan Khomenko reports in United 24:

Ukrainian forces have disrupted a Russian attempt to reach key logistics routes and encircle Druzhkivka in the Donetsk region following a two-month clearing operation involving several Ukrainian units. Russian forces had been building up in the area throughout the summer with the aim of advancing toward Druzhkivka and launching further attacks in the direction of Dobropillia. The Russian grouping included the 90th Tank Division and the 8th Combined Arms Army. The operation comes as Ukrainian forces conduct broader counteroffensive actions in northern Donetsk region. Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps' Operation Vivaldi has returned 125 square kilometers of territory to Ukrainian control 

Why New Russian Mobilization Will Not Save Putin's War

Ukrainian commanders do not believe that a rumored Russian mobilization of 400-600,000 men will be sufficient to turn around the failing prospects for Putin's invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its fifth year. 

The reason is, as Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman sector and now entering Luhansk has demonstrated, is that the increasing efficiency of Ukraine's reconnaissance and precision strike capabilities along the front, aided by drones and sensor networks, mean that more Russian troops are likely to result in more casualties rather than better Russian performance. The new troops are going to be largely draftees of lower physical and intellectual caliber and lower motivation. Their presence is unlikely to change the drone and electronic warfare driven calculus of the contemporary Ukrainian battlefield. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

Russia is suffering a frontline infantry deficit that mobilization cannot fix. “Over the past year, an infantry deficit has developed among the Russians. Mobilization (will not) solve the issue for them because a larger quantity of infantry simply translates into a higher volume of casualties.” Tactical outcomes on the modern battlefield are determined by the efficiency of the reconnaissance-strike complex, which pairs real-time target acquisition with precision firepower via sensor networks and unmanned aerial systems. “More Russian infantry will simply produce more dead. Mobilization also carries an inverse effect. Most mobilized personnel are not professional soldiers. Russian mobilization may yield a net positive for us by speeding up internal fractures which are visible, though not yet sufficient,”

Ukrainian Forces Cross Zherebets, Enter Luhansk, Adding To Russian Debacle

As Ukrainian forces begin to cross the Zherebets River at multiple points, the Russian debacle in the Lyman sector and across the Donbas grows. 

The river crossing and entry into occupied Luhansk oblast signifies that the only Russians remaining on the west bank are isolated units or small groups either cut off by the speed of the Ukrainian advance and/or abandoned by their commanders. This expands the scope of the 3rd Corps counteroffensive beyond northern Donetsk and now threatens further roll-backs of Russian forces on a broader front, which forces the Russians to contend not only with what is in front of them, but which now may also be behind them. The implication is that the Russian threat to the Fortress Belt is now, itself, threatened on several axes. JL 

RFU News and Giorgio Provinciali report:

As Russian forces continue withdrawing from positions west of the Zherebets River, Ukrainian forces pushed forward with across the river while consolidating control of the western bank. After Russian withdrawals, Ukrainian troops continued their counterattacks with limited resistance, pushing deeper into the previously contested zone. Russian sources have reported Ukrainian groups appearing across the Zherebets. Russian commanders must now manage threats on both sides of the river, (and) because they have refused to acknowledge the extent of the Ukrainian advance, many drone operators, support teams, and command posts have stayed instead of withdrawing further east, exposing them to Ukrainian capture. The advances in Luhansk widen the frame of this counteroffensive beyond the north of Donetsk Oblast.

AI Creates Demand For New Jobs Requiring Experienced Tech Workers

As AI continues its unintended consequences, man-bites-dog impact on technology and business, a new one has emerged: companies need more employees with 'business acumen, sound judgement and other intangible skills,' which means...experience.

So the 'AI native' narrative which seemed popular - what, a month ago - is now being supplanted by the notion that people with higher level skills and the expertise that comes with having seen unexpected issues before. The kind that tends to come with at least hints of gray hair. In particular, the rise of hacking using AI has led to demand for stronger cybersecurity teams, which, in turn, has led to deploying those who have endured a crisis or two and know what to look for. Could this change again as AI gets more experienced itself? Of course. But for the time being, inserting all this new AI stuff into legacy systems requires tech workers who have seen a thing or two and won't panic at the first sign of a problem. JL

Angus Loten reports in the Wall Street Journal:

80% of corporate Chief Information Officers said AI is more likely to create demand for new cyber roles and skills rather than reducing the size, (especially) of security teams. But the numbers reflect a refocusing of priorities, as many employers are now looking for more experienced workers with higher-level skills to manage advanced AI tools. AI is increasingly absorbing repetitive, lower-level tasks such as alert triage, log review and data enrichment. “The middle tier that is reviewing AI outputs and making judgment calls AI hasn’t yet been able to replace." Companies are filling positions with a stronger focus on business acumen, sound judgment and other intangible skills. “To use AI tools effectively for cybersecurity, we need people to operate and oversee them.” 

100s of Ukrainian Drones Hit Moscow On Final Day of Russian Election

Ukraine delivered a message to Moscow this past weekend. And it was a simple one: as long as the Kremlin continues to target Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, Ukraine will do the same to Russia. And there does not appear to be anything Russia can do right now to prevent it. 

The practical impact is that an already difficult domestic oil and gas market is going to get more challenging, while the unspoken message was that Russians are no longer safe and Ukraine has no intention of letting up. JL

Valerie Hopkins and Andrew Kramer report in the New York Times:

Moscow and its surrounding region came under attack by hundreds of drones on the final day of parliamentary, regional and local elections across Russia. The bombardment included the first use of a newly developed Ukrainian ballistic missile to strike inside Russia which supposedly did not have the range to reach Moscow. The Moscow oil refinery in Kapotnya, which had been taken out of commission by attacks in June, when it was estimated that repairs would last for six months was again damaged. The country is already facing widespread fuel shortages because of Ukraine’s attacks on refineries. While fuel lines have become commonplace in the last few months, there were few on Saturday because not many fuel stations had any gas to sell. When they did, it was low-quality gas or diesel. 2,022 drones had flown toward the Moscow region over the preceding seven days.

Operation Vivaldi Signals A New Phase of War Favoring Ukraine

Ukraine's success in the Lyman sector may signal a new phase of the war in which an innovative combined arms doctrine emphasizing close coordination between drone units and infantry redefines what is possible.

Prior to this, in the first phase, traditional armor and infantry led assaults and counters dominated the fighting. And while Ukraine shocked the world with its ability to defeat the Kremlin invasion plan, Russia's advantage in men and materiel led to phase 2, which inaugurated the drone war that made armor and infantry assaults virtually suicidal. That phase continued until earlier this year, when Ukraine's new drone-infantry maneuver operations decimated mid range logistics, command and reinforcements, then allowing infantry mounted on armored vehicles to clear up Russian infiltrators. The question now is whether Russia has the ability - and the will - to adapt. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

The  official disclosure of an ongoing Corps-level Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine represents the second significant Ukrainian counteroffensive this year (the first was in the south) and indicates Ukraine has developed new offensive techniques impacting ground combat. Russian military analysts described the situation near Lyman as worse for Russian forces than the earlier rout at Kupiansk, interesting given that battle has been treated as a low point for Russian infiltration tactics. Mid-range strike operations (out to 120 km) isolated the battlefield (using artillery, glide bombs, drones and EW), destroying Russian drone operations and interdicting logistics. Ukraine new offensive manoeuvre techniques which neutralise Russian infiltration tactics while suppressing drone operations that provide Russian situational awareness and use of these offensive operations to liberate territory and destroy Russian forces at the same time signal a new phase of the war.