CIA: Putin Believes US Weakened By Iran War, Less Able To Intervene In Ukraine

This is a curious situation. Putin appears to be correct that the US has foolishly and wastefully expended too much of its strategic arsenal in attacking Iran, which remains unbowed. 

But to make the leap from that to assuming he can then attack Europe at will seems foolhardy for two primary reasons. First, even though he apparently continues to believe they will quail at the threat of Russian aggression, NATO and Europe have doubled down in their defense of Ukraine, largely without Trump administration support. And secondly, the abject failure of the Russian military to subdue Ukraine suggests that should he be foolish enough to attack one of the Baltic states or Poland or Germany, that a) Europe would back down and b) that his troops are capable of prevailing. This European saber-rattling may be intended mostly to keep his own oligarchs and military in line, but it is likely that he will continue to sabotage European defense interests as well as launch air and sea provocations to keep the world guessing. What is clear is that any hint of accomodation on his part will result in his removal and death by his own people. JL

Warren Strobel reports in the Washington Post:

CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow this week was preceded by fresh U.S. intelligence indicating the Kremlin sees the United States as weakened by the Iran war, offering Russia an opportunity to escalate action against American interests and allies in Europe. The CIA chief warned Moscow against ramping up its war against Ukraine, arguing such a move would backfire. U.S. military stockpiles of key weapons have been severely depleted, including Patriot and other air-defense platforms, as well as cruise missiles and the short-range Army Tactical Missile, which is also in demand in Ukraine. Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow was "about Putin assessing we are depleted and can’t intervene.”

Sea Drone "Aircraft Carrier" Debuted By Ukrainian Navy

Not only can the Magura MV11 stay at sea for over a week - far longer than a smaller sea drone - but it can launch 18 drones at a variety of targets making the mistake of entering its kill zone or even seeking out those it suspects of being vulnerable. 

This means enhanced lethality and a new threat for the already depleted Russian navy to try to defend against. JL

Ellie Cook reports in Newsweek:

Ukraine has debuted a new sea drone - the Magura MV11 - able to carry and launch 18 uncrewed UAVs or USVs from the open water, earning the nickname of the world's first "drone aircraft carrier." The Magura MV11 is "not simply the largest maritime drone," it's a "single carrier capable of transporting and launching other unmanned systems far from shore for operations across all domains." The drone can stay up to a week at sea, and ferry up to 2,200 kilograms of sensors, fuel, missiles or other drones. It can carry up to 18 Sting interceptor drones—each with explosive warheads—and has a fixed camera which helps pilots navigate. "This weapon can hang around an area a long way from base and for far longer than a solo drone could manage. This means that, instead of reacting to an incoming threat, the weapon denies the enemy access to the area in the first place."

North Korean Missiles, Troops Being Hunted By Ukraine "One By One"

Get the body bags ready, the North Koreans are back for more. 8,500 North Koreans have reportedly been deployed, mostly in the Kursk region. Their task is primarily to launch missiles at Ukrainian civilian targets - or to protest the troops doing that work.

Ukraine knows where they are and has begun hunting - their word - the North Korean troops and their equipment. JL

RFU News reports:

As North Korea deployed ballistic missile launchers and personnel to support Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities, Ukraine began a systematic hunt for the launchers. 8,500 North Korean soldiers have been deployed to Russia, including 400 drone operators and 1,000 engineers and deminers, with most concentrated in the Kursk Region. Instead of endlessly defending against ballistic missiles already falling toward Ukrainian cities, Ukrainian forces hunt the machines and troops launching them.

Two Russian Regiments Now Encircled In Ukraine's Lyman Trap

Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade and 60th Mechanized Brigade are a few kilometers from linking up - as some reports say they already have done so - and cutting off the equivalent of two Russian Motor Rifle Regiments in the Lyman cauldron.

The Ukrainians encouraged the Russians to keep advancing towards Lyman without covering their flanks and then sprang the trap which has led to the encirclement now on the verge of completion. This will not only deprive the Kremlin of much needed troops and equipment, but further disrupt their plans to attack the Fortress Belt. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Ukraine's secret eastern counteroffensive seems to have been even more successful than reported. In the sector just north of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps is just a few kilometers short of encircling two Russian regiments. The Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade is just a few kilometers away from linking up with the 60th Mechanized Brigade around Kolodyazi. The 3rd Assault Brigade and adjacent units from the 3rd Army Corps have carried out one of the more successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in memory. Leaving their flank exposed, the Russians trying to encircle Lyman found themselves at risk of encirclement, instead. The closing pincer around elements of the Russian 2nd and 144th Motor Rifle Divisions strains the Russians' logistics and compels them to reconsolidate in order to preserve their combat power—by retreating east. That would take a lot of pressure off Lyman, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

AI Investment Is Keeping the Global Economy Afloat

Many wise investors and economists are asking if this the good news or the bad news? But most agree it's probably bad because the US GDP is being kept alive by AI spending with no guaranteed return. 

In addition, the economy is increasingly dependent on a very narrow band of companies spending money they don't have and may not ever earn. This is neither healthy nor sustainable, but with so many wealthy investors looking for returns, they are following the hype, knowing they will not have to pay the highest price if the boom craters. And that governments will have to clean up the rest. Not a recipe for optimism. JL

Jason Douglas reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The AI boom is fueling an investment surge in the U.S. and rocketing exports in Asia. Those tailwinds are lifting global growth, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. As data centers spring up in more countries, AI “is becoming a growth engine for the global economy.” The AI frenzy accounts for a third of the U.S. economy’s recent growth, as the data-center build-out sucks in semiconductors, electronics, cables, metals and machinery from around the world. Exports from China were up by a quarter in July compared with a year earlier, while exports from Japan rose 22%. Taiwan’s exports were up by a third and South Korea’s jumped 63%. The question for many economists is, will it last? And how vulnerable will the global economy be if this critical engine of demand falters? “Growth is becoming much more narrow.” That is a risk, as after breakneck growth in AI demand “we are reaching a point where we are going to see a slowdown.”

Russia's 76th Air Assault Remnants Withdrawn From Pokrovsk After "Bleeding Out"

Pokrovsk was supposedly taken by Russia a year ago. But the news that the Kremlin's elite 76th Air Assault Division has been deemed 'combat ineffective' and is being withdrawn for reorganization says not.

This reveals the bankruptcy of both the Kremlin's overall war plan as well as the ineffectiveness of using trained, elite units as common cannon fodder. JL

Owen Warner reports:

Russia’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division was among the few units Moscow could still call elite. Now, say reports from the Pokrovsk front, the remnants of the division are pulling back from their forward positions, shredded by months of futile, grinding assaults. The 76th VDV was ground into the meat and could no longer sustain the offensive. Its manpower shrank, its forward assault squads were rotated and raw replacements were brought in. It takes hundreds of trained specialists, months of preparation and equipment to rebuild a top-notch combat unit. Replacing them with hastily called up soldiers wearing the same patches isn’t the same. Now even Russia’s “elite” forces are unable to withstand a system in which they are disposable. The tragedy of these elite units is not that they failed to capture the entire Pokrovsk region. It is only that they revealed that Russia’s war has become unsustainable.

Ground Robot With Twin Kalashnikovs, Robotic Turret, Combat Tested By Ukraine

Unlike Russia's fanciful and often desperately defensive designs, Ukraine's latest technological innovations are being created with the idea of increasing offensive effectiveness and lethality. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Ukraine has begun combat testing armed unmanned ground vehicles equipped with robotic turrets and Kalashnikov-pattern rifles. Using standard Kalashnikov rifles reduces production costs and makes it easier to rapidly scale deployment of the armed ground robotic systems along the front. The system is built on a four-wheel chassis with airless tires and features a protected hull. Its weapons module features a twin turret capable of mounting two rifles at once, significantly increasing the volume of fire during assault and defensive operations against enemy infantry. There have been confirmed cases of the unmanned ground vehicles being successfully used against enemy ambushes involving drones.