Ukrainian Forces' Zaporizhzhia Sector Advances Continue With Heavy Fighting

Helmet cam footage released in the past day suggests the intensity of fighting in Zaporizhzhia oblast as Ukrainian forces continue their clearing of areas initially considered under Russian control but which probing attacks revealed were thinly held, presenting an opportunity for elimination of understaffed Russian units and reoccupation by Ukrainian troops. JL

Sofiia Syngaivska reports in Defense Express:

Helmet cam footage shows close-quarters engagement with Russian forces in the Zaporizhzhia sector, documenting intense fighting during clearing operations on the outskirts of Stepnohirsk. From a tactical standpoint, the operations involve systematic clearing of fortified positions, a methodical advance, "position by position, meter by meter", indicating a grinding style of warfare where incremental territorial gains come at high effort and risk. The Zaporizhzhia sector has remained strategically significant as Ukraine's counteroffensive continues to push back Russian forces. 

Russia's Top-Down Command Exacerbates Comms Loss, Ukraine Assault Gains

Ukraine's startling success in amplifying probing tactical attacks into a successful counteroffensive has much to do with the Russians' loss of Starlink and Telegram access. 

But the reason that loss has had such a disproportionately large impact is that Russia's strict top-down command structure forces junior officers to rely entirely on senior commanders for permission to take any action at the frontline. This sclerotic approach causes utter dependence on communications from rear to front. The loss of such connectivity then leaves Russian troops at the front virtually leaderless and unable to do anything, making them open targets for the more opportunistic and adaptable Ukrainians, who are now decimating them as a result. JL

David Axe reports in the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA):

In three weeks the Ukrainians have pushed back Russia's 36th Combined Arms Army and cleared hundreds of kilometers of Russian troops. The Ukrainians still have momentum and the Russians are still in disarray. It’s not too soon to draw broad conclusions: the Russians’ dysfunction is a reminder that no technology such as Starlink is a panacea. And every technological measure has a countermeasure. Widespread loss of connectivity is crippling (primarily due to Russia's top-down command structure). Russian troops at the front, unfamiliar with the terrain, often relied on distant commanders to guide them, one kilometer at a time. Junior officers cannot execute on their own without input from headquarters. 

Nvidia's Huge Numbers Spark Fear Of More Disruption, Financial Instability

Damned if you do and damned if you don't. Nvidia posted huge quarterly numbers this week, which would ordinarily allay investors' persistent recent fears about AI weakening. But in the 'Alice Through the Looking Glass' world AI has created, those numbers are being interpreted by many investors as further evidence of the economic disruption and vulnerability to come.

With Nvidia dominating in so many aspects of tech, there is growing concern about concentration and about the negative impact AI is going to have on the broader economy. JL 

Dan Gallagher reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Nvidia now makes more revenue in a single quarter than most chip companies generate in an entire year. In a market awash in new AI fears, that’s no longer enough. Nvidia’s shares fell more than 5% Thursday. Fears of AI disruption that have pummeled software stocks have also weighed on the tech giants investing heavily in AI build-outs. Microsoft is down 17% this year while Amazon has fallen 10%. That is a vibe even Nvidia can’t fully counter. The company’s runaway success could be seen as a sign of the destabilization to come, given the massive amounts of capital spending that are filling its coffers while financially weakening the world’s largest companies—and employers. Worries about the financial health of its biggest customers will keep growing. Fears of AI sparking large-scale layoffs also raise the risk of a public backlash against the technology. decrease; red down pointis down 17% this year while Amazon.com has fallen by 10%. 

Russian Soldiers Say Officers Executed Comrades For Refusing To Attack

As recent Ukrainian successes in breaking Russian defenses raise further questions about the Kremlin's ability to staff its units, additional revelations about widespread executions of Russian soldiers by officers under intense pressure from above reignite periodic whispers about declining Russian morale at the front due to abusive commanders, insufficient supplies and hopeless tactics. JL

The BBC reports:

Russian  soldiers have reported seeing comrades being killed on site for refusing to return to combat. One of them claimed to have witnessed a commander executing four men at close range, while another described finding around 20 bodies of soldiers who were killed by their own comrades, a practice known in Russian military jargon as “zeroing,” or eliminating their own men. Reports describe a collapse of discipline and chain of command, with extreme punishments applied to soldiers who refuse to participate in suicide attacks, known among the troops as “meat storms,” in which successive waves of men are sent to the front lines to exhaust Ukrainian forces.

Young, Battle-Tested Ukraine Officers Being Promoted To Senior Commands

Ukraine has promoted six officers age 40 or younger to brigadier or major general as part of a rejuvenation of the Ukrainian military.

All have been battle-tested in the war against the Russian invasion and have demonstrated both bravery and effective field leadership as Ukraine's forces have fought the larger Russian army to a standstill innovating, adapting and managing the transition from Soviet-era experience to the new age of drone-driven electronic warfare. These promotions signal that the lessons learned on the battlefield of the past four years by its most successful commanders are being embraced as the way forward for the Ukrainian military. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

Ukraine President Zelensky ordered the promotion of six field commanders to the rank of brigadier or major general in the Armed Forces of Ukraine Tuesday, a wave of promotions favoring younger, battle-tested officers. The youngest to be promoted was Denys Prokopenko, 34, a university graduate with no formal military education. He joined Ukraine’s armed forces in 2014 as a volunteer, serving in every rank, from rifleman to colonel, in Ukraine’s Azov formation. In the spring of 2022, he led the defense of encircled Mariupol. Oleh Apostol, 38, was promoted from brigadier general to major general, and will serve as Air Assault Forces commander. Yaroslav Sydorov, 40, has commanded tank units in Ukraine’s eastern regions and been decorated for bravery. He was promoted to lead the 17th Army Corps, responsible for the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson sector. 

Compliant Western Media's Silence Confirms War Not Going Well For Kremlin

It is apparent that the war is not going well for Russia as the western media which have consistently denigrated Ukraine's prospects and amplified Kremlin's 'inevitable win' propaganda have gone silent the past couple of weeks. "What Ukraine war?" they seem to be saying. 

But the facts on the ground are that Russia continues to falter in Donetsk while in the south, they are losing ground to the Ukrainians to such a degree that the infrequently heard phrases 'counteroffensive,' and 'breakthrough' are now being bandied about. Not only is Russia not winning, they cannot even claim to be holding their own. And unlike the Trump administration, the Ukrainians are not asking anyone to say thank you. JL

Heather Cox Richardson reports in Notes From An American:

At the end of its fourth year of war, Russia is weakened enough that the Institute for the Study of War assesses “Putin’s mismanagement of the war and Ukraine’s resistance now confront Putin with challenging and uncomfortable decisions about the war and the Russian economy.” The need for more money and men to fight will be unpopular. Europe is stepping up its support of Ukraine. Russia is not winning, and has recently been losing territory, as Kremlin officials are trying to mitigate domestic backlash. “Ukrainians are saving us all, and unlike us, they don’t even ask us to say thank you.”

After Huliaipole Breakthrough, Ukraine 2nd Attack Encircles Russian Units

As Ukraine's initial tactical assaults in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk sectors succeeded, it became apparent to the Ukrainian command that the Russians were far weaker in those areas than expected. 

So the Ukrainians deployed more resources and turned the limited objective assaults into an offensive, which now appears to have broken through Russian lines in several locations. Again displaying their adaptive capabilities, the Ukrainians have now exploited that success with a second attack from a different direction with threatens a number of Russian units with encirclement and destruction. The Russians have reportedly suffered 10,000 casualties in these sectors since the new year, suggesting that this could lead to an unexpectedly serious degradation of already limited Russian forces. JL

RFU News reports:

In the Dnipropetrovsk sector Russian lines started cracking as Ukrainians broke through. Ukraine isn’t giving Russia time to adjust and opened a second axis from the north, threatening encirclement for the Russians. Near Huliaipole, Ukraine created a significant breach in Russian positions from the west and northwest, pushing them further behind the Haichur River. They are now exploiting this breakthrough by launching a secondary attack from the north. This cuts Russian units off from reinforcement. The threat of being surrounded is serious, as Ukraine is forcing Russian commanders to shift limited reserves around constantly. Despite Russia committing troops from three armies, the Russian command lacks enough backup forces. Russia has lost 10,000 casualties in the south.