A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 3, 2026

With 35,000+ March Russian Losses, "Ukraine In Best Position of Past 10 Months"

Ukraine believes it is in the best position it has been in the past ten months - since the middle of 2025 - as in March, for the third month in a row, it has inflicted more than 30,000 casualties on Russian forces, with March's total topping 35,000. 

Not only are Ukrainian defenses holding, but the Ukrainians have gone on the offensive in multiple sectors. Should the Ukrainian reach their goal of inflicting 50,000 a month on the Kremlin's troops, it would be 'catastrophic' for Russia. JL

Olena Harmash reports in Global Banking and Finance, Adriana Mullayanova reports in Express Global:

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said the frontline situation for Ukraine was the best since the middle of last year, "the best it has been in the last ten months. Thanks to the strikes of our drones, 33,988 Russian soldiers were killed or seriously wounded, and another 1,363 were eliminated due to artillery and other sources. That is, more than 35,000 Russian losses in a month." Russia is losing 30,000–35,000 personnel monthly so far this year, with a loss ratio of 1:8 compared to Ukrainian forces. If Russian losses climb to 50,000 a month, it could be catastrophic for Russia’s military.

Russian Commanders Charge $39K To Spare Soldiers From Frontline Duty

Russian commanders are demanding extortionate sums from their soldiers who want to be spared frontline duty, with prices going as high as $39,000.

Russian troops can usually get access to such sums by turning over much of the bonuses they are being paid by the government for volunteering in the first place. Commanders are also known to sell weapons, food and the "privilege" of being sent to a hospital if they are wounded. Such corruption appears to be endemic to the Kremlin's military. JL

Verity Bowman reports in The Telegraph:

Russian commanders are charging up to £30,000 (@$39K) to spare soldiers from the front lines in UkraineThere (have been) multiple cases in which soldiers are offered the chance to pay extortionate sums in exchange for their safety – a practice experts say is systemic. Commanders “reset” soldiers – a euphemism for sending them to their deaths – if they refuse to pay the sums demanded of them, which range from £10,000-£30,000. There have also been cases of Russian commanders not sending wounded troops to hospital if they do not pay for the privilege or refusing to issue documentation to receive state veteran benefits. (And) commanders sold drones, thermal imagers, night-vision gear and humanitarian aid meant for troops

Ukraine 'Destroys' 291 Russian Attacks As Pokrovsk Again Hottest Sector

Ukraine's Pokrovsk-Mynohrad defenders including the Azov, 32nd and 155th mechanized brigades destroyed 291 Russian attacks in the past week, as that region has again become the hottest on the frontline. 

Having been thwarted in Zaporizhzhia and other areas in the south, the Kremlin, as has been its pattern, is now trying a new area to see if it might have more success than it has in the past 18 months. So far, to no one's surprise, the answer appears to be no. JL
 
RFU News reports:

Ukrainian forces repelled a series of Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector, (again) "the most hotly contested on the entire 1,200 km front." Near Hryshyne, north of Pokrovsk,the 32nd and 155th mechanized brigades destroyed the Russians advances while geolocated footage indicates that on April 1, "the Ukrainians advanced in northwestern Hryshyne as they have been clearing Hryshyne's center in recent weeks." Ukraine's 2026 strategy — exhaust Russian forces, deny breakthroughs, build reserves — positions the Pokrovsk sector as a prime attrition zone where absorbing high assault volumes is itself the mission. 

OpenAI Wins Largest Funding In Silicon Valley History As Bubble Refuses To Pop

OpenAI just raised $122 billion, the most money in one investment round in Silicon Valley history, putting its valuation at $883 billion. Which may sound big, but still leaves it second to SpaceX at $1.45 trillion. So if you were counting on the AI bubble bursting, you will have to be patient.

AI is being termed a bubble because AI firms earnings to not yet come close to justifying those valuations, at least by historical standards. "But this time is different" say many of the true believers, at least until it isn't. Major investors are well aware of AI users' disappointments, frustrations and unmet expectations. But they seem to have decided that so much money wants in that they might as well wait to see what happens - and make some commissions in the meantime. JL

Berber Jin and Jack Pitcher report in the Wall Street Journal and Thomas Smith reports in Fast Company:

OpenAI completed the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history, raising $122 billion ahead of a blockbuster IPO expected by the end of the yearThe deal, which values OpenAI at $852 billion shows how the ChatGPT-maker is diversifying its shareholder base ahead of its public listing. That’s despite the fact that AI companies still have modest revenues. OpenAI earned just $20 billion in 2025—less than Ross department stores, and about the same as Frito-Lay earns peddling potato chips. Given those earning realities, the current absurd level of investment feels unsustainable as AI ventures aren’t generating enough profit to justify their valuations. But if OpenAI’s new funding is any indication, the AI bubble isn’t going to burst. Yet.

Apr 2, 2026

Two Russian Planes Downed In Crimea. 29 Passengers Included Air Force General

Russia lost two planes over Crimea in one day this week. One, a bomber, was shot down by Ukraine with the loss of at least one of its two pilots. 

The other, a transport, crashed with the loss of 29 passengers, including a senior Russian general who commanded the Aviation Corps of Russia's Northern Fleet. It is interesting to note that news of the losses was published on Russia's Telegram channel rather than from Ukrainian or other sources, which may confirm growing discontent within the Russian military over the conduct of the war. JL

Patryk Jagnieza reports in Defense 24 and Oleksandr Shumilin reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Reports of the incidents emerged on the evening of March 31 via Russian Telegram channels. The first aircraft to crash was a Su-34 bomber. One of the pilots was killed, while the fate of the second remains unknown. The aircraft had been shot down by Ukrainian forces. The second lost aircraft was an An-26 transport plane. The aircraft crashed in Russian-occupied Crimea, killing 23 passengers and 6 crew members. This was confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defence. Russian General Aleksandr Otroshchenko was onboard the military An-26 aircraft. In 2024, he became commander of the Mixed Aviation Corps of the Northern Fleet. He became the 14th Russian general to be killed since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Luhansk's Ukrainian Defenders Contradict New Russian Capture Claims

In Luhansk, the Kremlin again tries to claim through propaganda that which its military is incapable of achieving on the battlefield. JL

Taras Safronov reports in Militarnyi:

This is not the first time Russia has claimed to have established control over Luhansk. The first report of this was delivered to Russian President Putin in July 2022. (But), two months later, Ukraine cleared Bilohorivka of the Russian forcesIn July 2025, the Kremlin-appointed “head” of the Luhansk People’s Republic claimed the region was fully under control, though on August 30 of the same year, the Chief of the Russian General Staff acknowledged not all of Luhansk was under Russian control. Ukraine's 3rd Corps continues to hold positions in the region. Russia has launched 144 assault attempts in the areas of Nadiia and Novoyehorivka, including the use of 19 units of motorized equipment and 360 soldiers. “Russia’s losses amount to 260 infantry killed, and more than 80 wounded.”

Mass Russian Assault On Sloviansk "Massacred" By Ukrainians

Two days ago, Russian forces launched the largest motorcycle assault of 2026 in the Sloviansk, attempting to break through Ukrainian lines by dividing the attacking cyclists into small groups of three or four. 

The Russians were spotted and massacred before they could reach Ukrainian lines. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Ukrainian forces from the 81st Airmobile Brigade on April 1 crushed the year's largest Russian motorcycle assault near Slovyansk, thwarting a breakthrough and destroying enemy infantryRussian troops deployed 16 motorcycles, operating in small groups of three to four vehicles. Thanks to timely detection and coordinated actions, the assault was thwarted, and part of the infantry that decided to dismount was destroyed.