35 Russian Ships Damaged or Destroyed In 4 Days By Ukrainian Sea, Air Drones

The sheer number of Russian ships damaged over the past four days by Ukrainian aerial and sea drones is significant in itself. 

But that many of those were sailing in the 'internal waters' of Russia's Sea of Azov and that many of them were carrying oil or supplies for Crimea, reveals the degree to which that embattled peninsula has become less a military asset and more a logistical sinkhole for the Kremlin. JL

Defense Express reports:

Over the past 96 hours, Russia has lost an entire fleet of tankers, most of which were struck in the Sea of Azov—waters the Russian military considers "internal." Two tankers were struck on July 6; eight tankers, one dry cargo vessel, and one ferry were struck on July 7; five tankers and four dry cargo vessels were struck on July 8; and 12 tankers, one dry cargo vessel, and one tugboat were struck on July 9. A total of 35 vessels were hit. Although no ships were reported sunk, those that caught fire will be difficult to repair and are considered effectively destroyed. Due to destruction of the bridge and damage to onboard equipment, the damaged ships will  be forced to undergo costly, long-term repairs. As Russia's ship repair capacity is insufficient to accommodate all the damaged tankers and dry cargo vessels at the same time, their return to service could take years. 

Working But Out-of-Fuel Russian Tank, Abandoned By Crew, "Adopted" By Ukraine

An amusing tale, but with a serious implication: Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure inside the country are beginning to have operational consequences for the Kremlin's ability to wage war. 

In the modern era, if you don't have fuel, you don't really have an army. JL

Vlad Litnarovych reports in United 24:

Russian troops abandoned a working T-72 tank on the battlefield during a retreat after it simply ran out of fuel. It was captured by Ukraine’s 81st Airmobile Brigade of  7th Rapid Response Corps on July 9.  The Russian crew fled the vehicle after it stalled while they were trying to escape a Ukrainian advance. “This T-72 tank is a trophy. And our guys got it without firing a single shot. All because the fuel gauge in the Russian vehicle hit zero.” After the tank was captured, Ukrainian forces evacuated it, refueled it, and sent it to the brigade’s repair unit. The tank returned to service and is now carrying out combat missions in the Sloviansk direction—this time against its former owners. 

Putin's Elite Air Assault Troops Are Bleeding Out Near Pokrovsk

The 'Guards' designation used to mean that a Soviet or Russian unit was elite, notable for its performance in battle. But as more units are chewed up in fruitless, destructive assaults across drone-dominated gray zones against entrenched Ukrainian defenders, that honor has lost its cache as trained volunteer specialists were killed or wounded and replaced by new recruits who were simply given the same patch. 

The latest unit to suffer is one of Russia's airborne divisions, the 76th, which is being withdrawn from the front around Pokrovsk for 'refitting,' a euphemism for having become 'combat-ineffective,' meaning they have suffered so many losses that they are no longer capable of operating as a functional organization. JL

Owen Warner reports in Medium:

Reports from the Pokrovsk front say Russia's 76th Guards Air Assault Division are pulling back from forward positions, shredded by months of futile, grinding assaults. The 76th and supporting units have suffered so much they are burning through their combat power at an unsustainable rate. Russian officers are rewarded for aggression, not for preserving lives. Commanders were inflating success rates and pushing soldiers forward just for the “propaganda channels” of Moscow. The reality on the ground, thousands of dead soldiers for a few meters. As its manpower shrank, the 76th's forward squads were rotated and raw replacements were brought in. But hastily mobilized soldiers wearing the same patches can't replace trained specialists and have the same combat power. Replacement of these battered troops from the front line is an admission of failure.

Does Big Tech Renting Out Excess Compute Mean Overbuilt AI Capacity?

The growing expressions of concern about the viability of projected investments in AI infrastructure is reflected in stock and bond market pricing. The impact of this spending on free cash flow - and, in some cases, financial soundness - has sophisticated money managers beginning to evaluate their options. 

The Big AI hyperscalers and their Silicon Valley echo chamber have moved beyond the disdainful 'they just don't get it' dismissal of such hesitancy. The response now is more subtle but no less definitive for that. Prior to its IPO, SpaceX revealed that it signed a deal with Anthropic to 'share' (eg, rent out) excess computing capacity. Now, Meta is talking about similar plans. That these companies could even talk about 'excess' was shocking because it implied that their growth projections may no longer be realistic. The next clue will be the announcement of plans for further cap ex spending which, even at $1 trillion, may mean lower AI growth rates are here. JL

Dan Gallagher reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Second quarter reports coming later this month will show another period of blowout AI investments. Capital spending by Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta surged 74% over to hit $168 billion for the 2nd quarter. This is crimping those companies free cash flow and stock prices. There are signs AI’s big spenders are looking to rationalize their investments. SpaceX signed a deal to share its computing capacity with Anthropic. Now Meta may be (doing so). Renting out capacity confirms Meta has overshot its build-out. The question is whether renting out excess capacity is a short-term offset to mega-spending, or a sign such spending is about to recede. That Meta has excess capacity raises eyebrows. Combined cap ex by the four is expected to hit $710 billion this year. But even $1 trillion in 2027 would represent a growth rate of half of what’s expected. Investor euphoria for the AI spending race could be tripped up by the law of very large numbers.

170 Russian Artillery Destroyed By Ukraine Warhead Drone-Dropped Into Gun Barrels

A Ukrainian drone unit destroyed 170 Russian howitzers, with a further 60 damaged in two days by dropping a new munition directly into the artillery gun barrels. For most of the past century, artillery has been considered, as the Russians call it, 'the hammer of god.'

This another example of how Ukrainian technological innovation is changing how war is fought. JL

Matthew Loh reports in Business Insider:

The Lasar Group, an elite Ukrainian drone unit used a new anti-howitzer munition to destroy 170 pieces of Russian artillery within two days. The special operation in early June involved over 800 drones deployed along the war's eastern and southern fronts. The missions were planned by its analysts who worked with other units to sift through large tranches of intelligence collected on gun locations. A "special munition" also created for these strikes. "Engineers developed this warhead specifically to destroy howitzers by targeting their gun barrels, making the weapons inoperable. As a result, 231 enemy artillery pieces were hit, 171 of them destroyed. This is equivalent to 10 to 14 artillery battalions, or three artillery brigades."

Ukraine's Adaptive Strategic Pressure On Russia Redefines Modern Warfare

Ukraine is not merely defending its front line. Instead, it has launched an adaptive campaign of persistent, cumulative, strategic pressure on Russia's troops at the front, their logistics in the rear, economic targets deep inside Russia. 

This forces the Russians to constantly have to respond, forcing the dispersion resources which could be more effectively deployed at one single location. The Kremlin is constantly recovering rather than building the concentrated power to attack. JL 

David Petraeus and Clara Kaluderovic report in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine is conducting a campaign with few precedents in military history. It is imposing persistent strategic pressure on a much larger adversary by attacking Russia’s front lines, air defenses, fuel depots, logistics and military infrastructure and by trying to isolate occupied Crimea. It doesn’t have fleets of heavy bombers or a blue-water navy. It is using drones, missiles, commercial communications technology, intelligence networks, special operations, software adaptation and operational ingenuity. Ukraine's objective isn't a single, decisive blow. It is cumulative disruption. A refinery today. A radar tomorrow. A fuel depot

the next night. Together, these strikes have a strategic effect. They force Russia to defend everywhere, repair constantly, disperse assets, reroute logistics and explain increasing shortages to its population. The outcome turns on whether one side can impose persistent pressure faster than the other side can recover. This is adaptation warfare. 

Russian Infiltration Troops Systematically Eliminated By Ukraine's Assault Forces

Russia can no longer accumulate the forces necessary to launch large scale offensives. Instead, they are attempting to infiltrate small groups of soldiers through the drone dominated gray zone in order to establish defensible outposts. 

But the problem for these isolated Russians is that Ukraine has developed a counterstrike strategy which relies on an electronic surveillance connected to quick-response assault forces who can be deployed to root out and eliminate the relatively defenseless Russians, who lack sufficient firepower, supplies or access to reinforcement. The result is that the Russians are usually detected and destroyed before they can establish a significant presence. JL

RFU News reports:

Ukrainian forces are clearing Russia’s infiltrations, eliminating them before they can establish meaningful footholds. Russia suffers from the same Ukrainian resource shortage it is trying to exploit: it lacks enough manpower, armor and logistics to launch a high-intensity offensive. Its small groups may enter territory, but they struggle to hold it because once detected, they have little firepower or reinforcements. Ukraine does not attempt to fill every gap with soldiers. Instead, recon drones observe approaches. Once infiltrators are detected, FPV drones, artillery, and assault teams engage them, with quick-response units ready to deploy across a wider front, holding the entire border with far fewer men. Ukraine has replaced a physical defensive line with a surveillance-and-strike network, which makes it an observable kill zone.