The Five Most Dangerous Warning Signs For Putin In Ukraine

It almost doesn't matter what rare successes Russia may occasionally glean anymore. Because the invasion that was supposed to subdue a smaller, weaker, corrupt neighbor has now lasted longer than World War I. 

Putin's army has stopped gaining ground and started losing it. Ukraine's drones and missiles can hit almost anywhere in Russia. And his hold on Crimea has become the world's largest kill zone death trap. Whatever he can salvage, if anything, will never be enough to offset all of that. JL

Newsweek reports:

1. The war clock has become an indictment. The humiliation is strategic as much as symbolic. Every extra year makes the story less about Russia correcting history, and more about its failure to defeat a smaller neighbor fast enough to preserve the myth of inevitability. 2.The map has stopped paying Putin. He can still kill and destroy, but the war's map is no longer rewarding him for it. 3. Russia's rear is becoming the front thanks to Ukraine's deep strike campaign. 4. The land bridge is turning into a drone trap. 5. Putin is recycling men, not generating momentum. The Russian military is going backwards on the battlefield.  

Kostiantynivka Is Becoming Another Kill Zone Trap For Russian Troops

This keeps happening. So often, in fact, that you'd think the Kremlin-influenced western media would have learned by now: the Kremlin claims its troops have won 'a major victory' by capturing the smoldering rubble of some Ukrainian town, only to discover that Ukraine's forces withdrew purposely and that Russian units are now trapped in a kill zone. Thanks to electronic and drone warfare, there is little happening in the war that is not anticipated or even planned.

So the news that Kostiantynivka may have been infiltrated by Russian forces may well be no more momentous than the ostensible 'fall' of other cities which were believed to be serious setbacks for Ukraine. Until it was discovered that they weren't. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos and David Axe reports in Trench Art:

 
It never fails. The Russians make a big to-do about having captured a major Ukrainian city. Soon thereafter, all hell breaks loose on the Russians. Recent examples? the Feigned Retreat from Pokrovsk last fall leaving them stuck inside the city, still unable to break through the Ukrainian defenses. After months of Russian infiltration into Kupiansk, the Ukrainians routed them and have pushed them across the Oskil River. Huiliapole. Lyman. Luhansk. Zaporizhzhia. Siversk. For months after nearby Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka complicated Russian efforts to march on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Now ruined Kostiantynivka no longer fulfills that purpose. But it may not need to. Cities are good for infantry-based defense, but open fields (where there's nowhere to hide) are good for drone-based defenses. Now that Ukraine has pivoted to a drone-centric defensive strategy, commanders actually prefer to fight out in the open rather than inside cities.

Ukraine's Most Potent Weapon: Hardened Troops Who Refuse To Retire

As the global consensus increasingly supports the battlefield, long range bombing and economic shift in Ukraine's favor, one of its largely unheralded assets is its army's core of hardened, experienced veterans have been through the worst and are now in position to help take advantage of the momentum swing. 

Soldiers who volunteered in 2022 - and some as far back as 2014 - are now leading the counteroffensive operations that have caused Russia to lose territory for months in a row. JL

Alistair MacDonald and Nikita Nikolaienko report in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine's army has maintained a core of hardened soldiers who have continued to fight throughout the war, surprising even Ukraine’s foreign critics with their tenacity. Ukrainian troops have proved resilient—and that is starting to pay off amid signs the tide of the war is beginning to turn against Moscow. In recent months, Russia’s territorial gains have vanished, and its casualties have mounted. The shift in the conflict hasn’t gone unnoticed on the front line. “We feel the difference.” They are using higher numbers of drones, to deadly effect on Russian soldiers. “This is only the beginning of a hellish summer for the Russians—one they’ll remember”

Americans Historically Embraced New Tech. So Why Do So Many Hate AI?

It bears repeating: Americans dont just dislike AI, they hate it. Which is odd, because the US rise to wealth and power was fueled by new technologies - water power, the steam engine, power looms, railroads, electricity, the auto, telephones, even the internet - all of which were embraced fairly quickly.  

But in the 26 or so years since the dotcom era, we've learned a few things about digital tech, which has raised the popular degree of skepticism. Wall Street and corporate execs may have been thrilled to hear AI would eliminate lots of jobs - but most people were not. And the degree of tech driven wealth concentration followed by tech bro arrogance and cluelessness - we're looking at you, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Marc Andreesen, et al - has only added to the public loss of trust and rise in hostility, which has been exacerbated by the mortgaging of the economy and political system to their insatiable demands for more money, electricity and water, all at the expense of that selfsame public. So to paraphrase a TV ad from the 80s, 'tech generated public enmity the old-fashioned way, they earned it.' JL

Paul Krugman reports in his substack:

In 2015, Pew found 71% of the public said tech companies “have a positive impact on the way things are going in this country.” In the past Americans greeted emerging technologies with optimism. So what accounts for the current hostility against AI? First, we fear AI will do terrible things because the companies selling it told us it would do terrible things. Anthropic's CEO declared AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs and drive unemployment up to 20%. Second, people feel AI is being forced on them. Third, datacenters occupy huge tracts of land, guzzle electricity, water and create pollution. 57% of Americans - 66% of Democrats, 50o% of Republicans - oppose datacenters in their neighborhood. Finally, AI is linked in the public mind with the tech oligarchs who are pushing it. There is widespread awareness of the growing concentration of wealth and power at the top. Tech has lost the public's trust. 

Russian Military Recruitment Falls By 33% Compared To 2025

As if the spreading knowledge within Russia about the dangers of service in Ukraine were not disincentive enough, the recent consensus that the Russian military in Ukraine is actually losing the war has further depressed Kremlin recruitment levels. 

Estimates are that new recruit numbers have fallen by over a third compared to last year. Returning soldiers report that many units are operating at 30%-40% of their authorized strength, further contributing to Russia's decline in battlefield performance. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

The number of Russians signing military contracts has declined sharply nationwide despite increased financial incentives. Recruitment in Moscow fell one-third this spring compared to the same period in 2025, reflecting a broader nationwide decline in new contract enlistments. The decline is not limited to the Russian capital and has been observed in multiple regions. Military personnel described manpower shortages and difficulties replacing battlefield losses. One serviceman claimed some units were operating at only 30% to 40% of their authorized strength, while others reported that newly recruited soldiers often lacked training and combat experience.

Due To Drone Strikes, Officials In Occupied Crimea Declare State of Emergency

Life for Russians in occupied Crimea has become increasingly untenable. Today's state of emergency further underscores the difficulty of supporting the civilian population, as well as Russian military installations. 

This threatens what is arguably Putin's only accomplishment since his first, limited attack on Ukraine in 2014 and undermines his claims to any military or economic rationale for continuing the full scale war. Should Crimea fall to Ukraine, largely through a drone-driven siege, it would threaten Putin's rule of Russia. JL

Ivan Nechepurenko and Natalia Vasilyeva report in the New York Times:

The authorities in Crimea declared a state of emergency on Friday after weeks of intense air attacks by Ukraine, including a wave of drone strikes overnight that appears to have been one of the largest since the war began. Gas stations in Crimea have run out of fuel. Children have been evacuated. Power outages have crippled the territory, disrupting water supplies that rely on electric pumps. The assaults have underscored how Putin’s ability to isolate Russian society from the impacts of the war is sharply eroding.

US State Dept Publicly Says "Ukraine Is Winning the War" Against Russia

Not that this is a definitive assessment, coming, as it does, from an administration that firmly believes everyone is entitled to their own facts, but it certainly betrays a shift in perceptions - and in the odds. 

The US President has a history of wanting to take credit for success and to distance himself - or blame others - for failure. This proclivity is so well known that reports indicate the Russian military is concerned this White House may reverse course and start sending weapons and ammunition to Ukraine so that the US President can claim a resulting victory as his own. The larger point is that the global consensus about momentum as well as the facts on the ground, sea and in the air has now shifted to Ukraine. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos and the Institute for the Study of War reports:

President Trump and US Deputy Secretary of State Jeremy Levin stated June 25 that Ukraine currently has the battlefield advantage, saying "Ukraine is winning the war." Ukraine's long- and medium-range strike campaigns against Russian military and energy infrastructure in occupied Ukraine and Russia along with Ukrainian advances in Winter and Spring 2026 are dismantling the Russian false narrative portraying Russian victory as inevitable. Russia has accused the US of failing to deliver on “understandings” reached between President Putin and President Trump at their Alaska summit last August - though they did not provide specifics - signaling growing frustration in Moscow. Now, “after getting to fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation,” Trump said he believes Ukraine – backed by the EU and NATO – can win back all its territory.