Why the Iran War Is Constraining Russia In Ukraine and Europe

Early analyses of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran purported to show that the primary beneficiary was Russia due increased oil prices and attention deflected from its faltering invasion of Ukraine. 

But that appears to have been short-term thinking. In a geostrategic sense, Russia - already found wanting by its inability to win in Ukraine - has now lost two of its key global allies, Syria and Venezuela. With Iran now under attack and military capabilities degraded, Russia's incapacity to do more than provide intelligence has undermined its standing as a serious alternative to western power. It also weakens the potential threat the Kremlin has attempted to create to Europe because with US aggression and European steadfast, defiant support for Ukraine, Putin's bluff has been called. JL 

Suzanne Loftus reports in The National Interest:

Analysts argue that rising oil prices and US attention to the Middle East gives Russia an advantage against Ukraine. While it may prove true in the short term, this overlooks a strategic consequence of the US’ employing coercive diplomacy and military force to reshape power balances. Degrading Iran’s military capabilities and weakening the regime, contributes to a weakening of the geostrategic ecosystem that helped Russia withstand Western pressure since its invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin frames its war in Ukraine as part of a struggle against Western domination in which Russia has positioned itself as an alternative to Western powers. (But) Russia's limited support for Iran is overshadowed by Ukraine’s military and technical aid. Moscow's inability to do more for Iran demonstrates its limits. Moscow may be operating in an environment of increased constraints on its behavior, discouraged from attempting to test NATO

Amazon For Lethal Goods: Ukraine Units Order Own Drones From Gov't Market

Necessity has driven the Ukrainian military to innovate in ways that improve efficiency, effectiveness - and lethality. 

Among the latest - and most impressive - are online 'marketplaces' where units in the field can order the type and number of drones they need based on the threat, opportunity, weather conditions and locale. The order is placed using the unit's account and is delivered in 5 to 10 days. This has supplanted the military bureaucracy which is too far away from the constantly evolving drone war at the front to keep up with new developments. And it is one of the reasons why the Ukrainians have had such success so far this year. JL

Maria Varenikova reports in the New York Times:

Militaries have long standardized their arsenals, simplifying mass production, training and supply. (But) in the age of drones, drone technology evolves too quickly for military bureaucracy to keep up. Ukraine has responded with decentralized procurement, matching supply to demand that can vary depending on the place and time. It is expanding the variety of drones, and allows troops to choose their own weapons, resembling a consumer market, an Amazon for lethal goods. The government has set up two websites to allow combat units to choose from hundreds of military drone models, according to their needs. A commander can place the order, paying with his unit’s account. The system places the order with the manufacturer, generates the paperwork and arranges for the drones to be shipped. They usually arrive within 5 to 10 days. “I can order any device sitting in a dugout.”

Russians Tried 619 Ground Attacks On Ukraine Over 4 Days Last Week. All Failed

The Ukrainians were waiting. As Russia launched - or, more accurately - attempted to launch its spring offensive, Ukraine's forces knew where, how and, frequently, when they would attack. The resulting beat-down was catastrophic for the Russian units involved with casualties inflicted that set new records for the war now in its fifth year. 

Ukrainian units are also continuing to counterattack and advance opportunistically as depleted Russian forces reorganize and retreat in the face of the Ukrainian onslaught. JL

Benjamin Murdoch reports in the Euromaidan Press:

Ukrainian forces have repelled a surge in Russian offensive operations across multiple front directions carrying out 619 attacks between March 17-20 . After several days of intense fighting in which Russian troops increased the intensity of their assaults, Moscow failed to achieve its objectives.  Ukrainian units were prepared for the escalation, having reinforced positions with additional personnel, equipment, and ammunition. The heaviest pressure was concentrated on the Pokrovsk and Oleksandrivsk directions in Donetsk Oblast, with 163 and 96 assaults respectively. Russian forces lost more than 6,000 soldiers killed and wounded, while total weekly losses reached 8,700. Despite committing significant reserves, Russian forces were unable to break through Ukrainian defensive lines.

AI Is Beginning To (Slowly) Change the Business of Law

It's fair to say that AI got off to a rocky start in the practice of law, as lawyers either pressed for time, overconfident about its capabilities or too lazy to double-check discovered that their AIs simply made up citations to bolster arguments which were then embarrassingly exposed, along with withering commentary from judges. 

But more prudent, measured approaches have since emerged, with (mostly) younger lawyers using the various AI models to do more research faster, draft better briefs and contracts and/or enhance their billable time. especially as clients become ever more cost-conscious. There does not appear to be an immediate threat to most lawyers' jobs as law firms, like many other businesses are talking a bigger AI game than their actual practice suggests. JL

Suzi Ring reports in the Financial Times:

In  a January 2026 survey, 50% of lawyers said they were using AI for legal work, up from 25% in 2024, yet only 2% said it was embedded in their legal operations. AI tools are a way of more efficiently understanding and gathering information on the topics lawyers have to litigate. Press releases announcing pilots and specialist AI platforms are churned out weekly. So are new initiatives to incentivize firms to use new products as lawyers try to show clients they are attempting to save them money. Ropes & Gray is pushing lawyers to spend 20% of billable hours on AI for research and contract drafting. Clifford Chance cut 10% of its back office, with AI taking over some tasks. Like many sectors, though, AI has also become a buzzword. Almost all large law firms are drafting grand plans for its use yet show little evidence of how it is in fact disrupting the multibillion-dollar sector.

Kyiv's Drones Prioritize Targeting Russian Troops To "Exhaust Human Resources"

Ukraine's drone forces are increasingly prioritizing the targeting of Russian troops rather than equipment, because their data-driven management systems are reporting that this is a more efficient means of exhausting Russian resources and thus, the Kremlin's war effort. 

This analytical approach to managing the war is one of the reasons why Ukraine has held off the much larger Russian military and is now widely believed to have stalled them, perhaps permanently. JL

Olena Goncharova reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Kyiv increasingly focuses on targeting Russian personnel rather than equipment. Ukrainian forces deliberately prioritize enemy personnel in at least 30% of strikes, aiming to strain Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort, comparing the strategy to exhausting a resource over time. The drone campaign relies on a complex operational system combining surveillance, electronic warfare, and strike capabilities. Every mission is recorded and analyzed, allowing units to adapt tactics in real time. "The best drone is an ecosystem. For one pilot to make a kill, a whole machine must work behind him, increasing efficiency."

Ukraine Ends Foreign Troop Training: "They Now Have More To Learn From Us"

When the Russian invasion began, Ukraine's military, steeped in Soviet military doctrine, had fallen far behind other countries and needed all the help and training it could get. The Ukrainians acknowledge that training in the UK, France, Germany and elsewhere helped them become more professional, successful in battle - and saved lives. 

But four years later, Ukraine possesses what is arguably the most experienced and advanced military in the world. There is more they can teach the Europeans, Americans and others than those countries can teach them. As a result, Ukraine will no longer send troops to be trained outside the country, except, perhaps for learning donated complex new weapons systems. JL 

Yevhen Dykyi reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

At the beginning of the war, there was much we needed to learn, from medical practices to battlefield communications and command systems. Our frontline practices were outdated, and Western partners significantly helped improve them during the first year of the war. Over time, there has been less that they can teach us and more that we can teach them. Entire brigades were sent to NATO countries and back. Frankly, this is a luxury, one that does not justify itself. (And) there was a temptation to avoid returning to war, to remain in a well-fed, peaceful Europe, where refugee status is guaranteed. That only a handful from each unit gave in to this temptation speaks to their resilience. (But), this happened and created reputational losses for us. It is logical this (training) has been reconsidered.

Putin Hiding As Attacks On Iran Leaders Fuel His Assassination Paranoia

The killings of Iran's top leaders have reportedly sparked Putin's and his security forces' fears that the instruments of repression they have used to control the Russian population - and that they shared with Iran - were hacked by the US and Israel, leading to the Iranians' deaths. 

As a result, the Kremlin has shut down internet services across a broad swath of Russia and Putin's whereabouts are unknown as he fears Ukraine could do the same to him. JL

Will Stewart and Ayeesha Walsh report in The Daily Express (US):

Vladimir Putin has dramatically escalated security following concerns that vulnerabilities in his protective network mirror those that preceded the assassination of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Reports indicate paranoia has gripped the Russian dictator's security establishment over worries his extensive electronic surveillance infrastructure contains weaknesses that could allow adversaries to track his whereabouts and enable an assassination attempt. This heightened anxiety is driving a shutdown of mobile internet across Moscow and other parts of Russia. Moscow and Tehran employed comparable surveillance and facial recognition systems. "Hacking and surveillance infrastructure to monitor citizens (can) help destroy heads of state. Nobody knows where Putin really is."