Huge Explosion As Missile Launcher Destroyed By Drone Just As Its Firing

A Ukrainian drone saw a Russian rocket launcher firing, calculated the position and then destroyed it just as it was launching missiles, leading to a massive explosion as the the Russian missiles and adjacent ammunition not yet fired exploded. 

These mobile Russian launchers are highly accurate at up to 120 Kms so are rare and valued targets. JL

Roman Pryhodko reports in Militarnyi:

A rare Russian Smerch MLRS was destroyed at the very moment of (its) shelling Zaporizhzhia. The strike drone recorded the launch of rocket shells, which made it possible to instantly calculate the enemy’s position. The drone attacked the launch guides: the system caught fire, and the machine’s ammunition began to detonate. The destroyed complex has digitized systems, significantly improving accuracy,  guidance and increasing the flight range of the rockets. The upgraded unit can hit targets at a distance up to 120 km thanks to high-precision ammunition with satellite navigation. This is the fourth system of this type Ukrainian defenders have destroyed. 

Four Years On, Russia Is Paying For Its Fatal Ukrainian Miscalculation

Tuesday will mark the fourth anniversary of Russia's Ukraine invasion and the beginning of a fifth year of fighting. From the very first day, the war has been characterized by the Kremlin's miscalculation about its strength and capabilities versus Ukraine's, with Ukraine the clearly superior force given its relative size disadvantage. 

And as Ukrainian troops this winter make gains in the country's southeast, have stopped Russia's concerted attack in the Donbas - and as the country has refused to bend to Russia's barbaric missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets, the only important question is for how long and to what degree, the Kremlin will continue to miscalculate. JL

Matthew Chance reports in CNN:

The past four years have exposed the reputation of invincibility surrounding Russia's (once) vast military and the previously widespread belief even among Kyiv’s allies that Ukraine would be too weak to resist a full-scale invasion. Moscow has also been unable to prevent the erosion of its traditional influence elsewhere. In 2024, the Kremlin was forced to evacuate and grant asylum to its Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad, as he was toppled by rebel forces. Last summer, Russia stood by powerlessly as US and Israeli war planes struck Iran, another key Russian Kremlin partner. It was also unable to protect Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, a figure with close Kremlin ties, from being seized in a raid by US troops.

Ukraine's Counterattack Is Exposing Russian Lies About Who's Winning

Ukraine's counteroffensive in the southern oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk has taken several hundred kilometers of territory, disrupted Russia's own offensive plans - and, most importantly - exposed how Russian commanders are lying to the Kremlin about the progress of the war.

Putin's refusal to negotiate seriously is based in part on his belief that his forces are advancing and wearing down the Ukrainians. But the recent Ukrainian advances, which are far more noteworthy than anything the Russians have achieved in months, has been designed to some degree to undermine the Kremlin's already shaky trust in its military by showing that the glowing reports of ground taken and held are illusory. Much of the land the Ukrainians have taken was never really 'held' in the classic sense: it was gray area in which competing teams of Russian and Ukrainian scouts hunted each other. Now that the Ukrainians have actually moved in force, Putin has further reason for concern as his supporters in the Trump administration must face the reality of their putative ally's weakness. JL

 
Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Russians never actually controlled the area the Ukrainians have taken back. The Russians had troops there, but they were the small infiltration units. As such, the Russians did not have control and the Ukrainians have cleared them out. This would be revealing. The Russians (claimed) they were making major advances in this region and the Russian military was telling Putin that. The Russians regularly claim greater advances than they actually are able to undertake (remember Kupiansk?). Putin was, once again, being given an overoptimistic picture of what his military was doing . The Ukrainians are trolling the Russians: their boasting and lack of honesty has been exposed, illuminating the lack of honesty about the state of the war being fed upwards into the Kremlin.

Ukraine's New Corps Structure Has Been Crucial To Beating the Russians This Winter

Up to a year ago, the Ukrainian military's ground forces were organized along brigade lines. While they demonstrated considerable success, the lack of an intermediate command layer to help coordinate attacks and defense too often led to short term decision-making which responded to the moment, not the larger situation. This frequently resulted in suboptimal performance. 

The new corps structure gives experienced commanders the ability to see a broader picture, deploy more resources faster - and at a strategic level - to produce better results. The notable successes at Dobropillia north of Pokrovsk and at Kupiansk near Kharkiv are both credited to the advent of corps level leadership. JL

Francis Farrell reports in the Kyiv Independent:

As of early 2026, 18 corps have been formed within Ukraine's land forces to bring brigades together, expanding separate artillery and drone units of each corps to brigade and regiment level, crucial to a coherent, coordinated defense. Large well-resourced brigades have been placed to expand and take over a corps, bringing experienced commanders, technology, human capital, and best practices, and spreading them out over the corps level to raise the standard of less capable brigades, and coordinate a better defense of their sector as a whole. Success in clearing Dobropillia showed corps command proved a more effective system, even when deployed hastily. And the potential for a corps to plan and execute offensive operations was displayed by the successful counterattack and clearing of Kupiansk

Ukraine Risky Counterattack In Zaporizhzhia Paying Off More Than Expected

Elon Musk gave Ukraine a big opportunity and the Ukrainians have seized, despite the risk it entailed. 

With Russian troops in two southern oblasts disrupted and disorganized by the loss of illegal Starlinks, Ukraine redeployed units from Pokrovsk and sent them south. The result has been significant gains - including the crossing of two rivers which now strengthen Ukrainian lines - while the losses of some settlements north of Pokrovsk have proven unimportant. This is another smart strategic decision by the Ukrainians, who continue to out-think the Russians in this war. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Ukrainian forces are advancing in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Kyiv's choice to pay for counterattacks around Huliaipole by handing the Russians a few villages north of Pokrovsk makes perfect sense. The tradeoff was only possible because, two weeks ago, Elon Musk bricked Russia's smuggled and stolen Starlink terminals, grounding Russian drones and blinding Russian field headquarters. Ukraine's decision has paid off; its forces have cross two key terrain features in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts—the Haichur and Vovcha Rivers—are pushing more armored vehicles into the gray zone between areas of Ukrainian and Russian control. The Russians are off-balance and losing whatever control they recently had over hundreds of square kilometers of the southeast. 

The Age of Wild AI Spending Ends, As Clients Demand Financial Returns, Assurances

Well, whaddya know? Corporate AI FOMO had a shelf life. 

Big tech companies, AI startups, Wall Street analysts and venture investors are all reporting that sales of AI models, apps and software are harder and slower in 2026 than they were last year as growing questions are raised about both operating impact on performance as well as financial returns for businesses being asked to make significant investments in AI. Tech companies already facing challenges about rosy 'vibes' that were unaccompanied by reliably, detailed projections and which may be rendered irrelevant by new developments in the field. While this is consistent with previous tech introductions, it is reportedly coming as something of a shock to the AI industry which had become accustomed to unquestioning customers agreeing to any deal proposed. This is hopefully a sign that sanity is beginning to impose itself on AI. JL
Isabelle Bousquette reports in the Wall Street Journal: 

The golden age of unbridled spending on AI might be behind us. Vendors say big companies have become more cautious about what they buy. They’re taking longer to evaluate solutions, involving more legal and finance teams, and placing more emphasis on the financial returns they might get out. The breakneck pace of AI innovation is also making customers wary of sales commitments. Last year, spurred by corporate FOMO and an aggressive campaign from tech giants, enterprises spent more than $1.249 trillion in software. (But) they found it was hard to measure financial returns. And what they could measure wasn’t impressive. "They are trying to understand the outcome of a purchase, not just following the hype.” 

Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Attacks Have Disrupted Expected Russian Offensives

Ukraine's ongoing counterattacks in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropavlovsk, Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts have disrupted Russian offensive plans for the spring and summer by pushing Russian troops out of favorable assault launching strongholds. 

The attacks have provided Ukraine with more defensible positions which will make the Russians' plans even less likely of success because of the difficult terrain they will now be forced to traverse, if they are even able to contemplate maintaining those plans. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Ukrainian forces are conducting counterattacks and assault operations in the Oleksandrivka sector to stop Russian troops from advancing toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian counterattacks liberated several settlements in the Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, slowing Russian advances and complicating their preparations for a potential summer offensive.