A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Mar 4, 2026

At Pokrovsk, Frostbitten Russian Soldiers Surrender To Ukrainian Drone

Hungry, frostbitten and feeling abandoned, a unit of Russian soldiers at Pokrovsk surrendered to a Ukrainian drone after watching their comrades who continued fighting 'mown down like grass.' 

Logistics shortages are contributing to Russian morale problems all along the front line. JL

Anzhelika Kalchenko reports in Militarnyi:

Russian soldiers surrendered to a drone on the Pokrovsk front. Their command tasked them with reaching a certain point and waiting for further orders, (but) they were left without communication or support. Due to difficult weather and lack of adequate supplies, some suffered frostbite. After their shelters were discovered, a Ukrainian drone targeted their position, forcing them to leave their hiding place. Through a loudspeaker from the UAV, the invaders were guaranteed their lives would be spared if they surrendered. After a brief hesitation, they agreed. Their unit had suffered significant losses. Most went to war 'to make money' or obtain early release from prison. Two admitted they were former convicts. "The guys were mown down like grass. I decided it was better to be taken alive." 

Ukraine Strikes Russian Ships, Oil Terminals 440 Km East At 'Safe' Novorossiysk

Over three years ago, after Ukrainian attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet's headquarters and major port at Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula, the Kremlin moved what remained of the fleet to what it believed was a safe anchorage at Novorossiysk, almost 500 kilometers further east.

Not anymore. With the broader range of new of Ukrainian drones and missiles, Novorossiysk is now a target, as Ukraine proved two nights ago, striking three ships, anti-aircraft sysems and oil facilities. The attack caused fires, explosions and significant damage. JL
 
Ukrinform reports:

On the night of March 2, Ukraine  hit the sea minesweeper Valentin Pikul. The anti-submarine ships Yeysk and Kasimov also suffered serious damage.” Three Russian sailors were killed and 14 others were wounded. During the attack, a 30N6E2 fire-control radar of the S-300PMU-2 Favorit system, a Pantsir-S2 missile-and-gun air defense system, and six of seven oil-loading standers at the Sheskharis oil terminal were also hit. A fire at the port lasted throughout the night. “Ukrainian forces are systematically reaching the enemy in ports, at bases, and deep in the rear. There are no ‘safe zones’ for Russian military facilities."

How Kharkiv, Ukraine's Air Warning, Defense Saves Lives From Drones, Missiles

Ukraine's increasingly sophisticated air defense and warning system tracks the launch of drones and missiles, helping activate anti-air weapons systems and triggering sirens that save lives by moving people to seek shelter. 

The system described in this article is in Kharkiv and is considered one of the best in Ukraine, but other cities have or are building similar set-ups. And it is these systems - and the experience Ukraine has had with Russian bombardment - that is now being offered by Ukraine to Middle Eastern countries facing Iranian drones and missiles. JL

Cassandra Vinograd and Oleksandr Chubko report in the New York Times:

On most nights Russian forces target cities across Ukraine, threatening civilians and infrastructure. At a secret facility deep below ground, Ukrainian teams of civilian specialists at Kharkiv's emergency-response center are watching, ready to save countless lives. If Kharkiv is the target, they act even before the military’s air defenses engage, switching on citywide sirens to warn residents to take cover. The highly secured center is staffed 24/7 with 12-hour shifts. The chief specialist’s workstation has two mouses. One performs normal tasks. The other activates the city’s 500 air-raid sirens. A radar map has a blue circle drawn around the city. A drone entering the circle can reach the city in seven or eight minutes, so when one crosses, the specialist immediately activates the sirens. There is no waiting for ballistic missiles. Sirens are activated as soon as a launch is detected. 

Russia's Huliaipole Defense Fell Faster Than Expected, Allowing Deeper Ukraine Breakthrough

Ukraine's opportunistic southern counteroffensive, which began in January, continues unabated. Russian defenses, especially around Huliaipole, have proven weaker and fallen faster than expected, permitting a deeper Ukrainian penetration which now threatens to become a breakthrough. 

The implication is for the Kremlin is that to prevent retreat from becoming a rout, the Russian command will have to redeploy increasingly scarce reserves to shore up the southern sector, thereby weakening other areas of the broader front. This is not the scenario the planners in Moscow anticipated this year and it is not clear that they are prepared or able to turn the situation around. JL

RFU News reports:

At Huliapole,  north of the main stronghold, Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian positions and are expanding their advance. Russian defenses fell apart more quickly than anticipated, allowing even deeper penetration by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces struck the headquarters of the 5th Russian Combined Arms Army at Novopetrykivka, further disrupting coordination across a wide section of the southern front. (And) Ukraine's drone operations have extended into the Russian rear, targeting supply and reinforcement routes on exposed rural roads, which are now intercepted before they can reach the combat zone. As the Ukrainians advance, the Russians retreat without being reinforced, reducing the density of their defensive line.  Russia is forced to commit scarce reserves from other sectors to prevent collapse here, weakening their defensive stability across the front.

OpenAI Reworks Pentagon Deal After Customer, Staff Backlash Over Surveillance

This was more of a surprise than perhaps it should have been - and raises further questions about AI's future. After Trump's belligerent Defense Secretary banned Anthropic's AI because the company would not submit to his demands regarding mass surveillance and AI-managed weapons, OpenAI opportunistically leaped in, thinking it had scored a coup, especially given the recent word amongst AI users that Anthropic's AI was clearly superior, especially for professional purposes. But then the backlash hit, with downloads of Anthropic's Claude surpassing OpenAI's ChatGPT and AI prgrammers and engineers across the tech industry brutally criticizing OpenAI's capitulation. OpenAI was forced to rework its Pentagon agreement and its CEO apologized to staff for "subjecting you to this pain."

Over the past year, there has been despair felt by many that Silicon Valley had wholly abandoned its early "don't be evil" mantra and fervently embraced Trump's authoritarianism, with tech leaders competing to see who could debase themselves further - even Apple's CEO showing up at the premier of Amazon's 'Melania' bribe-umentary. And while unapologetic firms like Palantir continue to trumpet their aggressiveness, the OpenAI episode suggests there are far more Silicon Valley workers uncomfortable with the implications of AI development and that they are prepared to speak out about it, which may now result in changed European and, perhaps, US AI policy. JL 

Berber Jin and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal, Jared Perlo and colleagues report in NBC News:

OpenAI announced its Defense Department deal hours after Defense Secretary Hegseth designated Anthropic a supply-chain risk. After backlash against OpenAI’s deal to allow for mass surveillance, Altman unveiled a reworked agreement Monday governing the Defense Department’s use of its AI services which provides stronger guarantees the military won’t use OpenAI’s systems for domestic surveillance. The new agreement states “the AI system shall not be intentionally used for domestic surveillance of U.S. persons and nationals." A groundswell across Silicon Valley criticized Altman and the company for what they saw as capitulation to the Pentagon. Altman (regretted) it looked “opportunistic” and “not united with the field, with extremely difficult brand consequences and very negative PR for us."

Mar 3, 2026

In One Month Alone This Year, Ukraine Launched 7,000 Ground Drone Operations

A year ago, the Ukrainian military's use of ground drones was rare and largely experimental. Now, it has become routine. 

Ukraine currently has 13 approved UGV models. It expects to upgrade those it has while expanding both the number and type. Most uses are logistical, from delivering supplies to evacuating wounded, but as more armed UGVs become available and their performance continues to improve, they will increasingly accompany, if not entirely take over, combat duties as well. JL

Tech Ukraine reports:

In January alone Ukrainian Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) completed over 7,000 combat and logistical missions on the front lines, marking a critical pivot toward autonomous warfare designed to mitigate human risk. The vast majority of last month’s deployments were logistical.  Today, robots regularly enter high-risk zones: delivering ammunition, providing logistics, and evacuating the wounded in areas where human presence creates an additional threat. The Ukrainian military currently hosts 13 different UGV models. 

'Putin Has Lost His Winter Offensive' As Ukraine Recaptures 460 Kms In 2026

The worst of winter is beginning to end in Ukraine and it is now apparent that Putin's so-called winter offensive not only failed, but that Ukraine has actually advanced, primarily in the country's south. 

The implication is that the Russian military is a spent force. It can continue to field troops, but their ability to achieve significant gains is now being called into question. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Ukrainian Defense Forces have recaptured 460 square kilometers of territory since the beginning of 2026. In February 2026 — for the first time since the Kursk offensive operation — Ukrainian Defense Forces regained control over more territory than the enemy managed to capture. “Effective active operations” are currently continuing in the Oleksandrivkai and Huliaypole sectors. "Putin lost his winter offensive. Now the Russians will try spring offensives, but they will lose again; many soldiers will die in vain.”