How Ukraine Lured Russian Missile Frigates Into A Trap and Now Taking Them Out

The trap is that the Russians moved their Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, believing that because the latter was further away from Ukraine, its ships were less likely to be hit. 

There were three problems with the Russian analysis. First, it did not take into account the advances in Ukrainian missile and drone technology which now make Novorossiysk vulnerable. Second, the latter's bay is wider than Sevastopol's so harder to defend with booms and anti-air assets, making it easier for Ukrainian weapons to find their way in. And third, Novorossiysk does not have adequate dockyard repair facilities so when Russian ships are damaged, it is harder and takes much longer to repair them. JL

 
Plitka Analysis reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukraine forced the Russian Navy to flee Sevastopol for 'safer' Novorossiysk. Yet Russian warships have found no sanctuary there: Ukrainian drones, missiles and uncrewed surface vessels continue to strike the Russian fleet. Russia's frigates Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov, armed with cruise missiles, are the Black Sea Fleets most important warships. In August, long-range jet-powered drones, Neptune cruise missiles, uncrewed surface vessels and other assets hit: both frigates, a small missile ship and a patrol vessel. The strikes also hit an air defense radar station, an oil depot and an oil-loading jetty. The August attack left the frigates critically damaged. Geography put these warships at a disadvantage. Novorossiysk Bay is wider than Sebastopol's so cannot block Ukrainian weapons from reaching it. Novorossiysk, also, is not a repair centre, and has limited facilities for dockyard work. 

New Ways Of Counterattacking In Drone Era Give Ukraine Operational Advantage

Not only have the Ukrainians succeeded in thwarting the Kremlin's 2026 offensive plans, they have done so while executing an entirely new form of combined arms maneuver warfare which has gone largely unnoticed due to Kyiv's increasingly sophisticated and disciplined operational security. 

The scale of this achievement is evident not only in the tangible results from areas liberated but in the renewed momentum driven by Ukrainian forces willingness and ability to innovate and adapt on the fly in order to secure the outcomes crucial to their success. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Over two months, Ukraine has executed quiet, successful counteroffensives in different parts of the country. Not only does this challenge the popular narrative of a stalemate, but it means the Ukrainians have found new methods of conducting successful actions at tactical and operational levels. The Ukrainians have demonstrated combined arms tactics that exploit aerial and ground drones to dominate the tactical battle, create space for ground manoeuvre using mounted and dismount troops, while providing EW, resupply, point defence, casualty evacuation, mine emplacement and clearance. Operational security has also been a key: Ukraine kept a very tight leash on information, implemented a deception plan and achieved strategic and operational surprise. In sum, even if Russia manages to inject several hundred thousand more troops in the final months of this year, these will be inexperienced and unlikely to achieve any better results than their predecessors.

All of Russia's 2026 Gains Wiped Out By Ukraine Counteroffensives

Russia's net territorial gains for 2026 have been reduced to almost zero by Ukrainian counteroffensives across multiple sectors. And, as the year is about to enter its fourth quarter, the Ukrainians are still advancing, most notably around Lyman.

The Ukrainian gains themselves are less significant, arguably, than is the way they have been achieved, which is through a newly conceived and executed combined arms maneuver warfare that merges various elements of drone surveillance and attack across the width of the gray zone with artillery, infantry and even armor. This has not only pushed the Russian forces back but has disrupted the Kremlin's plan to attack Ukraine's Fortress Belt this year - and possibly for years. Strategically, this undermines Putin's claims of success and thus, his reputation and negotiating position with allies and enemies. JL

Ivan Khomenko reports in United 24:

Ukrainian forces have largely offset Russia’s territorial gains since March 2026 while conducting successful counteroffensive operations across the front. Ukrainian forces in late 2025 and throughout 2026 have increasingly challenged Russia’s battlefield initiative, marking the first sustained shift of this kind since Ukraine’s Kursk offensive in August 2024. Ukrainian operations have reduced Russia’s net territorial gains to nearly zero as Ukrainian forces have carried out counteroffensive operations in the Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman directions, disrupting multiple Russian operational objectives. This also prevented Russian forces from advancing further into the Dnipropetrovsk region and eliminated a significant Russian salient that had threatened the northern flank of Sloviansk. At Russia’s August 2026 rate of advance, its forces would need until October 2032 to capture the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in the Donetsk region

Oracle, the AI Boom's Weakest Link, Scraps $7.5 Billion Stock Sale

If there is any company that personifies the risks inherent in AI, it is Oracle. It has bet billions it doesn't have on data centers and related AI investments while its founder, CEO and chief investor Larry Ellison is massively overleveraged thanks to AI and to his son's desire to be a Hollywood mogul, which Ellison has supported financially. 

Oracle, and Ellison, can least afford the AI race and also has the most to lose soonest if the bubble goes bust. His decision not to sell $7.5 billion of his already underperforming stock is tied to this state of affairs and he is probably one of those urging his pal Trump to insist on no AI slowdown as that might push Oracle over the edge. JL

Spencer Jakab and Robert McMillan report in the Wall Street Journal:

The weakest of the (AI wannabes) financially is Oracle. Since it’s last quarterly update in June, S&P downgraded its debt to one notch above junk. The cost of insuring against its loans and bonds defaulting hit a multiyear high -four times as much as for Microsoft. The stock is now trailing the S&P 500 by 51 points over the past 12 months. Oracle shares are down 23% this year, while the Nasdaq is up more than 13%. Larry Ellison scrapped plans to sell $7.5 billion worth of his stake. He is one of the richest people on the planet, but he might also be one of the world’s most indebted and much of his wealth is tied to his Oracle stake. 24% of his approximately $200 billion net worth was pledged as collateral. He pledged $40 billion to support his son, Paramount CEO David Ellison’s hostile bid to acquire Warner Bros. in an $80 billion deal. Future profits needed to justify AI spending are immense, and Oracle has the smallest earnings cushion of AI firms relative to its debt.

Russia "Cannot Achieve Land War Success" As Adaptability Favors Ukraine

The increased frequency and brutality of Russia's terror attacks on civilian Ukrainian targets are because Putin understands that he can no longer win the land war and may even fail to preserve some, perhaps much, of what his troops initially took. 

The Ukrainians have now launched two counteroffensives this past spring and summer - around Lyman, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia which have retaken hundreds of kilometers of territory. They have done so with an innovative combined arms maneuver warfare approach that has, to some degree, neutralized Russian drone forces while degrading logistics and reinforcement as well as enabling the reintroduction of infantry in armored vehicles. Russia simply has no answer for this. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Zelensky believes the Russian air attacks are increasing because they “cannot achieve success” in the land war. The Ukrainians have been liberating territory near Lyman - up to 250 square miles of territory some say - but are keeping it quiet for operational security (the Ukrainians have become very good at that—they only will announce successes once a campaign phase is over), as they did earlier this summer when they took back a chunk of land at the center of the line. This shows the Ukrainians can advance without taking mass casualties even as Russian losses remain shockingly high. The Ukrainians operate with small numbers of well-trained, motivated forces, in close coordination with masses of drones. It is about being as precise as possible, knowing where a soldier must go and what he might encounter on the way. It is the opposite of the Russian strategy of wasting mass manpower. The adaptability balance in the land war continues to favor Ukraine. 

10,000 Ukrainian AI Hornet Drones Deployed Over 3 Months To Attack Russia

This is how autonomy, at further range and lower cost but with greater range - and all at scale - is impacting the war. 

Ukraine has deployed 10,000 AI-enabled medium range (200 km) strike drones for $5,000 a piece over three months. They are a big part of the reason why Ukraine's combined arms assaults in Lyman, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia have succeeded as the Russians are unable to defend a much greater area behind the front, allowing Ukraine to degrade their operational capabilities. JL

Shawn Reed reports in Medium:

Ukraine has deployed over 10,000 Hornet strike drones over three months to attack targets within Russia. It reflects Ukraine’s rate of scaling up the use of medium-range, AI-assisted drones. Not only does it attain a range of over 200 kilometres, but it has onboard systems that can help track their target when maintaining a continuous link to an operator may become difficult. It is particularly useful against logistics, fuel supplies, military infrastructure, and other targets in the rear areas. Thousands of drones equipped with a range of over 200 kilometres, onboard navigation, targeting assistance and a low, $5,000 unit cost alters the situation as Russia is forced to defend a much larger area. The Hornet is important because it is more autonomous, with further range, cheaper, and far more numerous.

"Meatgrinder With Kremlin Providing the Meat" As Russian Pressure Shrinks

Reports across all sectors of the front reveal a uniform shrinking of Russian pressure on Ukrainian positions. This suggests both that the Kremlin is running low on resources - especially the manpower whose lives they so profligately disregard - and that the Ukrainian counteroffensives are so disrupting Russian plans that they are being forced on the defensive.

That the war has become 'a meatgrinder with the Kremlin providing the meat,' as a Ukrainian commander offered, is an indication that, on the frontline, the Russians no longer have the initiative, nor are their earlier conquests necessarily safe. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

The trend of fighting seems to be shrinking Russian pressure in almost all sectors. Based on the field descriptions this is the textbook “we’ve just about run out of men to send on attack” phase. This is the fifth (!) Russian summer offensive when we’ve seen this happen. In the Zaporizhzhia sector, attacks are still taking place but significantly decreasing and with less-numerous groups, by “about 40 percent.” In Pokrovsk - Dobropillia, the ratio of Ukrainians to Russians lost can be 1 to 60. The Russians are killed or wounded, do not gain ground. At Konstyantynivka, Russian attacks have fallen off to very little. And at Lyman, it’s official, 3rd Corps completed its counter-offensive liberating 10 villages and recapturing150 square kilometers of Russian territory. The war right now is running a meatgrinder with the Russians providing the meat.