Russian General's Shooting In Moscow May Be Kremlin Peace Sabotage Attempt

The Russian general who was shot in Moscow may have been the victim of an attempt by the Kremlin to sabotage peace talks by blaming the shooting on Ukraine. It may also have been driven by internal Russian military competition since the leader of the Russian peace delegation was the wounded general's boss. 

The Ukrainian head of their peace talk delegation is the former head of that country's military intelligence and he has already been quoted as saying, "believe me, we are not that stupid," since blaming the Ukrainians would be a clumsy Kremlin attempt to anger President Trump. Putin is growing desperate to end the war closer to his terms as his army's performance has collapsed so far in the new year as his economy is faltering so creating a crisis and blaming it on Ukraine would not be outside the realm of possibility for the former KGB agent turned dictator. JL

Nataliya Vasilyeva reports in the New York Times:

A top Russian general in intelligence gathering for the Ukraine war was shot in Moscow today, the latest in a string of attacks on military leaders inside Russia. General Vladimir Alekseyev was one of the Russian officers providing intelligence for the 2022 invasion. He has been targeted with American sanctions twice: first, for meddling in the 2016 U.S. elections and later, for his role in the Novichok nerve agent attack against Sergei Skripal a Russian former spy, in Britain in 2018. The shooting happened as the general’s boss led the Russian delegation in talks with Ukraine in the UAE. Russia’s foreign minister accused Ukraine of attempting to kill Mr. Alekseyev in order to “disrupt the negotiation process.” The the attack on a GRU general so near to peace talks "cannot be a coincidence."

Entire Russian Platoon Captured In Dobropillia Clearing Operation

The significance of this operation is that Ukrainian troops rarely capture more than a few Russians at a time. 

That an entire platoon surrendered appears to confirm reports that Russian forces on the front line are literally starving due to the interdiction of their supplies and prevention of reinforcement by Ukrainian drones. This also gives further credence to reports of low Russian morale. JL

Francis Farrell reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine's Azov International Battalion captured 18 Russian soldiers in less than 24 hours during a clearing operation of the village of Zolotyi Kolodiaz near Dobropillia.  Zolotyi Kolodiaz was one of the furthest villages reached by Russian forces during its infiltration operation that began in August. While Russia’s advance was quickly halted, dozens of Russian troops remained dug in across the villages where the breakthrough occurred, with clearing operations stretching on for months. The Russian soldiers (constitute) an entire platoon.  

Putin's Siversk "Victory" Turns Out To Be Preplanned Kill Zone Trap For Russians

In the broader context of Russia's failure to take Pokrovsk, the supposed loss of Siversk garnered little notice outside Ukraine. It had been successfully defended for almost 4 years but then reportedly collapsed when Ukrainian territorial units broke, their leaders subsequently disciplined. 

Or did they and were they? The emerging narrative is that the Ukrainians designed the 'collapse' to lure unsuspecting Russian units to surge forward, into what was a preplanned kill zone trap. The city's geography - surrounded by hills from which Ukrainian artillery and drones have fire control - and the unyielding nature of Russian tactics means that the Russian forces which entered are now being decimated as their bunkers in the rubble were pre-sighted by the Ukrainians and their logistics routes are under constant fire. In retrospect, it is conceivable that some Ukrainian territorials did, in fact, break, but that the Ukrainian command quickly saw this as an opportunity and have turned it to their advantage. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

At Siversk, did Russian commanders, hard-pressed for a victory, rush into another well-crafted Ukrainian trap? What looked like defeat was actually deception. Russian troops rushed in, believing the frontline had broken. Instead, they walked straight into a pre-planned kill zone. Surrounded by higher ground, cut off from secure flanks, and exhausted, Russian units are now exposed to Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes. Russian tactics, in Siversk, mean entering a destroyed city where every movement is recorded by Ukrainian drones. What worked in the “cauldron” of rural villages turn into a casualties in the Siversk trap. The deeper Russians enter the city and bring more manpower and equipment, the wider the target for strikes on the rear and logistics.

How Anthropic Tanked Equity Markets And Surpassed AI Competitors

The quiet scuttlebutt among venture investors and corporate users began this past fall: while OpenAI and its ChatGPT had been first to market (albeit a market that often didnt pay much, if anything), Anthropic was emerging as the model that business users most frequently relied upon. They were impressed, sometimes awed, by its power and reliability. Which got to the core of its strategy. 

Anthropic was founded by a former OpenAI exec who had clashed with OpenAI's Sam Altman, in large measure over what have come to be called 'safety' issues, a polite way of acknowledging the danger AI poses if misused. While OpenAI and many others chose to ignore those threats in return for fast growth, Anthropic was considered an also-ran because it moved more slowly. But as ChatGPT's and others' 'hallucinations' became a serious business accuracy threat, Anthropic moved ahead as the more reliable choice. And then, this week, it released add-ons which demonstrated the power AND reliability of its models that investors perceived as direct threats to the revenue model of many software companies, thereby tanking the equity markets. This is generally perceived to be an overcorrection, but it underscores the intelligence of Anthropic's strategy and emerging dominance over competitors. JL

Bradley Olsen reports in the Wall Street Journal:

This week, Anthropic's products upended the stock market. A set of industry-specific add-ons to its Claude product, triggered a dayslong global stock selloff. Then, Athropic  Anthropic unveiled Super Bowl ads that taunt rival OpenAI.  Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and others have warned that the correction is an overreaction, (but) Microsoft,  Amazon, Meta, Oracle and Google are planning more than $600 billion in 2026 capital spending, which approaches the 2026 spending budget of Japan and exceeds that of Germany and Mexico. Anthropic—and its tools—are crucial drivers of that spending.  Anthropic’s agents act autonomously to carry out complex user requests, offer a preview of the threat AI models pose to entire companies. It has fought its way to the forefront of AI with a strategy focused on safety, software engineering, and business customers. 

Russia's January Oil Revenue Plunged 50% As Europe Hits Shadow Tankers

Russia's oil revenue dropped 50% in January as Europe has tightened the net on shadow tankers illegally attempting to transport the Kremlin's oil.

The drop is so significant that questions are being raised about whether the Kremlin can negotiate a ceasefire before its economy collapses. JL

Catherine Belton reports in the Washington Post:

Europe is tightening the net on Russian oil being shipped through its waters, squeezing Moscow’s ability to fund its war even as officials and business executives in Russia fear the window is narrowing to reach a peace deal before the economy deteriorates. Russian oil revenue plummeted by 50 percent in January compared with the same month the previous year after tough new sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil in October. The penalties forced Moscow to accept ever-steeper discounts of more than $20 per barrel for its oil.

Russian Advances Down To 15 Meters, 1,000 Casualties A Day

For Americans, 15 meters is 49 feet or 16 yards. So yeah, you could practically spit from here to there (almost). 

And if you were Russian, it would cost you 1,000 dead and wounded buddies a day. JL

RFU News reports:

The unlikelihood of Russia achieving a breakthrough is further reinforced by Ukraine’s defensive posture, because while Russia struggles to advance with more than 15 meters per day, Ukrainian forces are constructing hundreds of meters of massive, modern defense lines. With over 2,000 kilometers, these fortifications are being built faster than Russian troops can advance.  One and a half years and more than 100,000 dead soldiers are still not enough for the Russians to capture Pokrovsk. Kramatorsk is 4 times the size of Pokrovsk, while Sloviansk is almost 4 times bigger than Myrnohrad, which means that Russia would hardly be able to capture them even within the next two years.

AI Fears Battering Techs Stocks Due To Software Displacement Concerns

Irrational exuberance has turned into what may be irrational depression for investors who suddenly appear to believe that AI will displace corporate software contracts that have supported the industry. 

Whether these fears are real or exaggerated remains to be seen but prudent investors are certain paying to both possibilities. JL

Andrew Sorkin and colleagues report in the New York Times:

Fears that artificial intelligence will disrupt the industry appear to be growing, as investors reckon with the severity and breadth of that shake-up. Software and services companies lost about $300 billion in market value on Tuesday after the release of more A.I.-driven automation tools by Anthropic, the maker of the Claude chatbot. The worry is that these tools, which can handle some legal, marketing and customer-service tasks, could replace many current offerings. Investors in the U.S. and Europe during the past two weeks have been steadily reducing their exposure to software stocks.