A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 1, 2026

NATO Trainers Say Ukraine Troops "Think Outside Box, Know What It Takes To Win"

NATO soldiers charged with training Ukrainians are somewhat intimidated by their students' battlefield experience. 

They recognize that while they can teach how to use certain weapons with which the Ukrainians are unfamiliar, the Ukrainians can teach them about optimal tactics on the modern battlefield. But increasingly, NATO has more to learn from Ukraine than vice versa. JL

Sinead Baker reports in Business Insider:

Ukrainian soldiers often showed far greater tactical imagination than their Western trainers, a former British trainer said. Ukrainian soldiers, out of necessity, are willing to take more risks and think out of the box. They were "far more flexible and comfortable coming off doctrine. That's driven by necessity. They just get it. They have their objective." Ukraine's seasoned soldiers have experience the Western soldiers training them do not. The UK and its allies have not fought a large-scale industrial war in decades, so are studying Ukraine. Ukrainians move (differently) in ways then recognized as tactically sound for a battlefield rigged with traps. "They have a greater understanding of what it takes to win and sheer determination." Training Ukrainians who had experience was intimidating for Western trainers, but there was a knowledge exchange that proved valuable for both sides.

Iran War Turns Ukraine's Russian Success Into Billion-Dollar Defense Business

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, all political and financial supporters of Donald Trump, just signed 10 year deals, potentially worth billions with Ukraine to assist them in fending off Iranian attacks. This despite the US President's evident favoring of Iran's closest ally, Vladimir Putin. 

And the reason is simply practical: they are threatened but finding that the billions they have spent on US military hardware over the decades is of less utility against Iranian drones than are the Ukrainian countermeasures - and experts who can train them on how to make the most of their new acquisitions. So for all those crowing about Putin's big win in the Iranian-Israeli-US war, it may be time for a reassessment. JL 

Peter Caddick-Adams reports in The Telegraph:

For decades the Middle East's Gulf states have been investing hundreds of billions of dollars in conventional military assets bought from Russia and the West, only to find themselves at the mercy of cheap weaponry that can threaten a refinery, desalination plant, or airbase, and destroy a multi-million-dollar radar facility or a warship. Money no longer equals power, for Kyiv’s technology demonstrated that tens of thousands of dollars can wipe out billions in a trice. Ukraine’s military dexterity will define how war is waged for the next 30 years. A broader partnership across the Gulf was unveiled during Zelensky’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE last week, when he signed 10-year agreements on defense cooperation with all three states.

Ukraine Attacks Liberated Most Land Since 2023 Which Russia "Unlikely To Regain"

The evolving battlefield analyses are getting more interesting as March has turned to April in 2026. Not only have the Ukrainians gained more territory than they have since 2023, but the Russians are deemed increasingly 'unlikely' to be able to summon either the forces or the strategic leadership to ever retake what they have lost. 

The implication is that the Russian military, both in terms of its goals and the resources it possesses to achieve them have been so degraded that the Kremlin's military, economic and political objectives in Ukraine are no longer considered realistic. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Ukrainian forces have liberated the most territory in since the 2023 counteroffensive by prioritizing counterattacks in areas where Russian forces are the weakest in order to maintain the operational and strategic initiative. Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine have had cascading effects on other sectors of the front, forcing Russian forces to choose between defending against the Ukrainian counterattacks or allocating manpower and materiel for offensive operations elsewhere on the front. Current battlefield dynamics suggest that Russia will not quickly regain land in the Kupyansk sector or in southern Ukraine. Russian advances have significantly slowed as Russian forces continue to suffer personnel losses and increasingly rely on poorly trained and underequipped infantry.

Salaries For VC-Backed AI Startup Talent Up 25% - Now At Big Tech Pay Levels

Cash compensation - eg salaries - for AI software engineers at venture capital-backed startups are up 25% this year, rivaling, for the first time, the pay of experienced workers at established Big Tech companies like Apple, Meta and Google. And this may not even include equity awarded. 

The significance is that startups used to be somewhat stingier with compensation on the not unreasonable expectation that many startups would fail, so offering equity as bait for potential payoffs was the accepted model. But competition for AI is so fierce, because there is relatively little of it relative to demand, that cash compensation levels have skyrocketed to previously unforeseen heights. The looming question remains: is this a bold but smart investment in the 'inevitable' payoff AI promises, or another sign of imprudent financial behavior based on hyped outcomes which may never be realized? JL

Katherine Bindley reports in the Wall Street Journal:

These days, high-growth AI startups are flush with venture capital. Combine that with a wildly competitive talent market and you get more cash-heavy offers, along with creative incentive structures. Median base-salary offers for software engineers among venture-backed startups have grown from $160,000 to $200,000 since 2022, a 25% increase. For the same companies, total compensation, including equity, has increased by 18%. It’s no longer uncommon for startup workers in certain roles to be making the same total cash compensation as seasoned workers at companies like Meta and Google. “Prior to this, I’d never seen anyone over $300,000 on base salaries at seed companies.” Now, “They’re able to take home Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google level cash comp.”

Mar 31, 2026

As Losses Become Irreplaceable, Russia Copies Ukraine - More Drones, Less People

As the scale the losses they are suffering render them irreplaceable without the general mobilization the Kremlin wishes to avoid due to its unpopularity, the Russian command is copying - again - from Ukraine's strategy by increasing the use of drones to supplant the paucity of new recruits. 

Ukraine has successfully implemented this strategy, which has been particularly successful this winter and early spring. Russia's winter and spring offensives were both stopped with heavy casualties, inflicted primarily by drones. Russia is now attempting a special drone operator recruitment drive and trying to increase the number of its drone sorties. There has yet to be a notable increase in effectiveness. JL

Yevhen Kizilov reports in Ukraine Pravda and Dmitri Kuznets reports in the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center :

Russian forces have increased the use of drones while deploying fewer personnel. "We see more drone operations, but fewer actions involving personnel. We believe the enemy faces challenges. There are issues with the training of their troops." Russian losses between 1 January and 26 March amounted to 89,000 personnel killed or severely wounded. The scale of Russia’s losses begs the question: Does Russia have sufficient human resources to compensate for losses? Russian authorities are unlikely to significantly increase the current size of the armed forces or the recruitment rate. (In addition to those already reported) by the end of 2025, 90,000 requests to have missing servicemen declared dead had been lodged with Russian courts.

To Scale Air Defense, Private Ukraine Firms Form, Shoot Down First Russian Drones

Russia's relentless assault on Ukraine's civilian energy and electricity infrastructure this winter failed to break Ukrainians' spirit. But it did reveal the need for improved air defenses.

Rather than complain about the chronic shortage of air defense assets - which reflects a nearly universal problem from Europe to Russia - Ukraine has again innovated by giving businesses the ability to form their own air defense units, integrated into the national air defense command. The idea is that competition w foster innovation and perhaps generate better air defense concepts while also contributing to overall safety and freeing soldiers to focus on the frontline. The first such operational team, in Kharkiv, has already shot down Russian drones. JL

Mariia Boltryk reports in the Kyiv Post:

The first company participating in a government-backed private air defense project has destroyed Shahed and Zala drones in the Kharkiv region. Ukraine`s government allowed enterprises to form air defense groups. The project primarily invites critical infrastructure operators in energy, communications, transport, and water supply. new air defense units are being formed simultaneously at 14 enterprises. The project is also designed to open up the air defense market and foster competition. The private air defense units are integrated into the Ukrainian Air Force’s unified command-and-control system. This allows rapid scaling of air defense capabilities without straining frontline resources. 

Ukraine Has Stopped Russia's Spring Offensive Which Won't Break Through This Year

Spring officially commenced only a week ago, but Russia's spring-summer offensive is already being deemed a failure. 

Aside from Ukraine's enhanced defensive capabilities - accomplished largely by itself - the most significant aspect of these increasingly similar and numerous conclusions is that Russia is incapable of sustaining sufficient reinforcements to maintain adequate offensive operations, let alone break through anywhere. JL

Yuri Zoria reports in Euromaidan Press:

Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive is struggling against Ukraine's Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces remain unlikely to seize the fortified defensive line this year, with a direct push on Sloviansk already stalled and flanking forces advancing even more slowly. Russia's war continues to consume manpower at unsustainable rates, with Moscow unable to rebuild losses and generate reserves needed for offensives. Ukrainian drone defenses, fortifications, and the sheer attrition of Russian assaults continue to constrain it's ability to translate numerical advantage into territorial breakthroughsThe slowing pace of operations suggests Russian forces cannot sustain the intensity of  earlier pushes.