There were three problems with the Russian analysis. First, it did not take into account the advances in Ukrainian missile and drone technology which now make Novorossiysk vulnerable. Second, the latter's bay is wider than Sevastopol's so harder to defend with booms and anti-air assets, making it easier for Ukrainian weapons to find their way in. And third, Novorossiysk does not have adequate dockyard repair facilities so when Russian ships are damaged, it is harder and takes much longer to repair them. JL
Plitka Analysis reports in Ukraine Pravda:
Ukraine forced the Russian Navy to flee Sevastopol for 'safer' Novorossiysk. Yet Russian warships have found no sanctuary there: Ukrainian drones, missiles and uncrewed surface vessels continue to strike the Russian fleet. Russia's frigates Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov, armed with cruise missiles, are the Black Sea Fleets most important warships. In August, long-range jet-powered drones, Neptune cruise missiles, uncrewed surface vessels and other assets hit: both frigates, a small missile ship and a patrol vessel. The strikes also hit an air defense radar station, an oil depot and an oil-loading jetty. The August attack left the frigates critically damaged. Geography put these warships at a disadvantage. Novorossiysk Bay is wider than Sebastopol's so cannot block Ukrainian weapons from reaching it. Novorossiysk, also, is not a repair centre, and has limited facilities for dockyard work.























