Kremlin's Recruit Numbers Keep Dropping As Soldiers "Realize It's A One-Way Ticket"

Tactical losses - even some strategic ones - could be endured by Russia if its troop strength numbers could be sustained. 

But a growing number of reports indicate that they no longer can keep up with Russian casualties in Ukraine. JL

Tom Cotterill reports in The Telegraph:

Russia is losing more troops than it can recruit. Ukraine’s intense counter-attacks have pushed Russia’s casualties to more than 1.25 million – greater than the total sustained by the United States during the Second World War. The vast majority of Moscow’s losses – 87% – came from drone strikes, which now dominate the battlefield, with one drone as effective as 22 rounds of heavy artillery. Russia's effort to gain fresh recruits was “becoming more and more difficult” with financial incentives by the Kremlin failing to entice new soldiers to join the front lines. "People are realizing that it's a one-way ticket."

Putin's Decision-Making Remains Detached From Reality As Ukraine Strengthens

On day 1461 of Putin's three or ten day war - whichever you choose - Ukraine's most recent successes suggest that Putin's decision-making remains divorced from battlefield reality. 

It is apparent to most informed observers that he cannot negotiate for peace - or even a ceasefire - because even the poor, politically irrelevant relatives of the 1.25 million Russian casualties in Ukraine will demand some sort of result that justifies their loved one's deaths or dismemberment. But the harsh reality is that the Ukrainians are not yielding and the Russians are not gaining.  All while his war economy is evidently faltering. And because Trump does not like losers, Putin cannot rely on him, especially as the American President eyes Russia's allies in Venezuela and Cuba. In short, this is not an anniversary Putin is likely to want to remember. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

The Russian theory is that a few more big pushes might work. We have seen this logic before in war, and it never ends well. The disconnect between Russian strategy and demonstrated Ukrainian resilience suggests – again – that Putin’s decision-making remains detached from battlefield reality. During February 10-17, Russian forces actually lost19 square miles of territory—slightly less than Manhattan Island. This represents a dramatic reversal from preceding weeks. Putin is considering an involuntary reserve call-up to sustain Russian ground offensive operations. This indicates that the model employed since 2022 – emptying jails and offering huge recruitment bonuses – is reaching the end of its sustainable life. A new model for provision of warm bodies is required to backfill the 1000 casualties a day that Russia is suffering.

Ukraine's 300 Km "Zaporizhzhia Run" On War's 4th Anniversary Shocks Russia

In fighting reminiscent of the Ukrainian advances around Kharkiv and Kherson in late 2022, Ukraine's forces have optimized what was originally some tactical opportunities and turned them into what is now widely called a counteroffensive. 

Having pushed the Russians back 300 kilometers in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts - an advance being called 'The Zaporizhzhia Run," 

Ukraine has not only disrupted a Russian gain that began last summer but has forced the Kremlin to redeploy forces from other sectors including Pokrovsk. Though much of the credit for the Ukrainian success has been attributed to the Russians' loss of Starlink and Telegram access, the reality appears to be that the Russian 'advances' were really more like probing reconnaissance actions by small units, not territory gained and held by substantial units. When viewed against the backdrop of the Kremlin's well publicized difficulties in recruiting new troops, these Ukrainian attacks appear to signal a further degradation of Russian military capabilities. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

2026 was (supposed) to be the year in which Zaporizhzhia City (as well as the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant) became Russian propaganda coups as a dispirited Ukraine caved. But Ukraine's unanticipated, vicious and devastating counter punch into the Russian underbelly in Zaporizhia upended what it had done since last summer as well as the Kremlin's plans for 2026. Russian forces are now 'spinning their wheels halfway to their intended staging positions." The tempo of Russian advances nearly halted.  Ukrainian units struck across multiple axes: Oleksandrivka, along the Haichur River, northwest of Huliaipole and liberated Dobropillia. These actions were 80 kilometers east of Zaporizhzhia City, an area where Russian forces had made progress since summer. The strategic impact of reversing Russian momentum is substantial.

AI Hype Isn't Cutting It Now: Investors Want AI-Immune 'Real Economy' Stocks

That was sudden. The Anti-AI or AI-Immunity trade is upon us. Investors were spooked by Anthropic's demonstration of disruptive potential a couple of weeks ago and have been jittery ever since. The problem is, as knowledgeable investors will admit, that no one has any real idea who's going to benefit or be devastated by AI. But one thing is for certain: the hype machine claiming 'trust us, you don't need to worry your pretty little head about the epochal hugeness of AI' is no longer sufficient. 

This is not a rejection of AI per se. It is, instead, a rational demand by prudent investors for proof of concept which includes operational performance leading to better than expected financial outcomes. Which, come to think of it, is exactly what business and investing are supposed to be about. JL

Hannah Lang reports in the Wall Street Journal:

After a three year love affair with anything related to AI, US investors are flocking to companies that have strong odds of surviving the AI revolution. In the past month, the industrials, materials, utilities and consumer staples have surged ahead of the overall index, while information technology has slid while Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla have languished, a rotation into real economy shares that has been under way for months. Through Feb. 20, the consumer-staples sector has notched its best year-to-date performance on record. Left behind are the perceived victims of the AI revolution, from wealth managers to software. "We don’t have any real idea who the [AI] losers are going to be. The next chapter is going to be defined by companies proving it. Hype isn’t cutting it anymore."

Ukraine Blows Up Druzhba Pipeline In Response To Hungary's Demand It Reopen

Hungary's Putin acolyte Orban has blocked a 90 million Euro loan to Ukraine and, along with his other Kremlin favorite, Slovakia's Fico, has threatened to cut Ukraine's electricity transfers further unless Ukraine restored access to the Druzhba pipeline from Russia through which the small eastern European countries get much of their oil. 

So in response today, Ukrainian drones flew 1,200 kilometers into Russian Tatarstan and blew up a crucial section of the pipeline. Which suggests that Ukraine thinks the pipeline cutoff hurts Hungary and Slovakia more than their threats hurt Ukraine. And it is sending yet another message to the Kremlin and its supporters that Ukraine is getting stronger and more deadly. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

Kyiv responded to Budapest’s threats to block a €90 billion EU loan and cut off electricity to Ukraine until oil transit through Russia’s Druzhba pipeline resumes on Monday – by blowing up a critical section of the pipeline deep in Russia.  Monday morning, Ukrainian long-range drones pummeled the Kaleykino oil pumping station in Russia’s Tatarstan, setting it ablaze and shutting the operation of a critical transit node in the Druzhba pipeline system – the main artery for Russian crude oil deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia. 

Day 1461 Of Putin's Three Day War - With No Victory In Sight

The Kremlin is having a rough winter - and it's only February. Not only have even its miniscule advances largely slowed, but it can't replace its dead and wounded troops at the same pace - and its economy continues to slide. 

Despite Trump's trying to tip the war in Russia's favor, his pressure tactics aren't working on either side and Ukraine appears to be getting stronger as Russia gets weaker. When a famed columnist like Paul Krugman, who usually focuses on the economy, chooses to write about this war, it is probably a signal that Russia's - and by extension, Trump's - failure is becoming more widely recognized as a significant change. JL

Paul Krugman reports in his substack:

Putin's dream of a short, victorious war has turned, as such dreams usually do, into a long nightmare of blood, destruction and humiliation. Ukrainian courage and Russian incompetence — combined with the effectiveness of British and American weapons — ensured that the attempt to seize Kyiv became an epic debacle. The three-day war is about to enter its fifth year. (And)  despite Trump’s pro-Putin policy, Ukraine is still standing, as Russia’s year-long offensive has been a bloody failure. While Trump may have thought that he could hand Ukraine over to Putin, it turns out that he didn’t have the cards. The likely outcome is that European aid and Ukraine’s growing prowess in arms production will shift the military balance in Ukraine’s favor, and Russia’s war effort will eventually collapse.

Russians Panic As Losses Spike With Ukraine's Offensive Entering 2nd Week

The opportunistic Ukrainian counteroffensive, primarily in the Zaporzhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts is entering its second week amid signs that Russian forces are starting to panic. 

"Significant" numbers of reserve units are being redeployed to those sectors, ignoring standard operational security, which has led to even greater casualties among the Russian forces. The Kremlin is clearly embarrassed, angry - and increasingly careless. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Two weeks into Ukraine's counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces are still advancing. As the Russians rush reinforcements toward their fracturing southeastern positions. (But) frantic Russians are sloppy Russians—so Russian casualties have spiked. A battlegroup drawn from Ukrainian assault units attacked the western flank of the Russian 36th Combined Arms Army. The Ukrainians cleared out Russian troops from the wide "gray zone" between Russian and Ukrainian lines. Next, they penetrated the Russian line itself around Dobropillia. Panicking, the Russians committed a significant number of reserve units to the fight. 15 Russian were killed or wounded when they piled into an unarmored truck and rolled along the highway north of Dobropillia, easy targets for Ukrainian drones. When Ukrainian infantry arrived to mop up, they found only dead Russians and parts of dead Russians.