Putin Has "Air of Desperation" As Ebbing Willpower, Strategic Defeat Loom

A tenet of military lore holds that ground doesn't matter - it's the enemy's will to fight. By that measure, Ukraine has already demonstrated its strength. 

But recent developments suggest that Russia's will to battle, which has not wavered for four years despite historically horrific losses, may have begun to ebb as Ukraine's successes on the ground, in the air and on the sea begin to tell. That multiple observers note 'an air of desperation around Putin' suggests this is systemic, not temporary. JL

Thomas Harding reports in The National:

Russia's minor operations to seize Ukrainian territory are “at best tactical victories leading effectively to strategic defeat. The amount of kit and humans they have expended on very small gains is unsustainable even for a country that has willing manpower." The Ukrainians “have largely replaced trench warfare with “zonal defence." If the Russians attack, they're not being repelled by humans but by air and ground drones collectively. "Ukraine isn't losing so many people, and Russia is losing vast numbers.” Ultimately ground doesn't matter, it’s the enemy's will to fight matters and that willpower could be ebbing on the Russian side. "There's an air of desperation about Putin at the moment.”

Unjammable Ukraine 'Vampire' Drones Now Destroy $200 Million Russian Jammers

Russia's Borisoglebsk-2 has been a very effective, electronic warfare jammer. But at $200 million each, the Kremlin has only produced a few dozen of them. Ukraine has now knocked out six of them. 

It has been able to do this because of upgrades to its large Vampire "Baba Yaga" drones which make them not only unjammable, but able to locate and destroy the systems designed to jam them. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Ukrainian iconic Vampire bomber drones have been upgraded to resist Russian electronic warfare. Now the six-rotor drone can not only fly through Russian jamming. It can attack the jammers themselves. The “Vampire” has been upgraded with terrain-following navigation, radio frequency hopping, and an improved jam-resistant CRPA satellite navigation system. A Vampire recently found and bombed a rare Russian Borisoglebsk-2 tracked jamming vehicle, destroying it with several grenades that punched through it's thin top armor. A Borisoglebsk-2 complex is estimated to cost $200 million. Russia has built only a few dozen of them since 2015, and Ukrainian forces have knocked out at least six since 2023.

"Highway To Hell:" Ukraine's "Logistics Lockdown" Of Kremlin Routes

Ukraine's interdiction of Russian supplies, fuel, reinforcements - and the vehicles they travel in - plus ancillary targets like air defenses, command centers, warehouses, ammunition dumps and ports has now become legendary, almost overnight. 

The Ukrainian defense minister's catchy phraseology - 'logistics lockdown' has a nice alliterative ring - is helpful, but it is the comprehensive and relentless nature of the Ukrainian long range drone attacks, as well as their impact, that is justifiably garnering most of the attention. Not only is much of the Kremlin's occupied southern Ukraine land-bridge under Ukrainian fire control, but Crimea is now isolated and supplies to the faltering offensives in Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk are in danger. Hundreds of Russian trucks have been confirmed destroyed. But again, it is the systematic nature of the Ukrainian effort that impresses most: data reveal that as destruction of Russian logistics increases, their assaults decrease. JL

 
Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack and Mick Ryan reports :

Ukraine this week announced its ‘Logistics Lockdown' campaign has been going on - and planned - for months. It targets the M-14 road from Rostov-on-Don in Russia, through occupied Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Melitopol, and into Crimea. Headquarters, training camps, air defence, ammunition, fuel storage and other military assets up to 100 kilometres behind the front are also targets. By three weeks ending May 30, 86 burned trucks and tankers were confirmed on the M-14. 125 destroyed trucks were seen far away. "Ukraine has increased fourfold the destruction of enemy logistics, warehouses, equipment, vehicles, command posts, and supply routes at operational depth. Data points to a clear trend: as the destruction of Russian logistics increases, assault operations along the front decreases." This will lead to a constant degradation of Russian fighting power. Supplies will decrease, command will be chaotic, losses will rise and replacements will be inadequate. 

AI Has Made Memory Chips More Valuable Than Oil

The combined market capitalization of the world's 

three largest memory chip makers is now greater than that of the three largest oil companies. And this calculation does not even include Nvidia. 

That valuation disparity appears secure because the AI hyperscalers are increasingly signing long term contracts to lock in the already diminished supply, which will make it harder for others to compete and will enhance the valuations of Big Tech by providing greater predictability. In AI, the rich are most emphatically getting richer. JL

Dan Gallagher reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Memory is now worth more than oil. AI is driving demand for memory chips far beyond what suppliers can produce, driving up prices to previously unseen levels. Memory makers are using their leverage to get customers to sign long-term agreements. The world’s three largest memory-chip makers - Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology - now carry market capitalizations of more than $1 trillion each. That puts them 22% above the combined market cap of the world’s three most valuable oil companies, even with Saudi Aramco at $1.8 trillion. The spending power of AI’s largest investors means future memory production will be covered by multiyear contracts with more stable pricing terms. Such contracts will cover 30% of shipments of DRAM, next year.  Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon have already secured 66% of global production for DRAM used in servers, exchanging pricing for multiyear supply and greater predictability”

increase; green up pointin SK Hynix 000660 1.92%increase; green up pointing triangle and Micron Technology MU 5.14%increase; green up pointing trianglnow carry market capitalizations of more than $1 trillion each. That puts them about 22% above the combined market cap of the world’s three most valuable oil companies, even with Saudi Aramco weighing in on its own at nearly $1.8 trillion.

Ukraine Deploys "100s" of Decoys With Long Range Strikes, Confusing Russians

Some of the credit for Ukraine's long range drone attack success is due to the fact that it now routinely deploys hundreds of decoy drones engineered to mimic the radar signatures of ballistic missiles along with its live ammunition-carrying drones. 

This confuses Russian air defenses, causing them to waste munitions on fakes while inadvertently giving away their radar and anti-missile battery locations which can then be destroyed in follow-up attacks. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

By deploying hundreds of specialized decoy drones alongside live munitions, Ukraine is blinding, exhausting, and physically dismantling Russia’s air defense network. It is a calculated system where only a specific percentage of the launched fleet is fitted with explosive payloads, while a parallel wave of decoys is deployed simultaneously to oversaturate Russian radar systems. Advanced, jet-powered decoy drones in its strike packages are engineered to mirror the radar signatures of cruise or ballistic missiles. When Russian anti-aircraft crews engage what their radar indicate is a missile threat, they exhaust interceptors on decoys while revealing the geographic coordinates of their radar and missile batteries. Armed drones then neutralize those exposed assets. Ukraine's deep-strikes are distributed and managed through laptops. “It is difficult for Russia to destroy this program; we don’t have single centers, we use dozens of locations."

Kremlin Can No Longer Assemble Needed Mass As Ukraine Strikes Dominate

The Kremlin's forces can no longer assemble the mass needed to effect breakthroughs as Ukraine systematic dismantling of air defenses blinds the Russians to threats which Ukrainian troops capitalize on with aerial and ground drones. 

The result is that, for the first time in this war, military analysts are consistently declaring that it is Ukraine which has the momentum to break the stalemate of the past few years. And when influential political publications like The Hill (referring to Capitol Hill in Washington, DC), which is read by elected officials and their staffs, declare Ukraine has the advantage, it has a significant impact. JL

Ellen Mitchell reports in The Hill:

Defense analysts this week said the war had entered a new phase, with Kyiv poised to break a stalemate that has been in place since late 2023. Ukraine is gaining momentum on the battlefield, regaining territory for the first time in years as it outflanks Moscow’s forces through its domination of drone warfare. “Only a few months ago, the majority of analysts were saying that by now Russia would have captured the whole of the Donbas. But the Russians simply cannot accumulate the kind of mass and armor needed for breakthroughs.” The shift dates back to late 2025, when the Ukrainians began striking Russian ground-based radars, electronic warfare stations, surface-to-air missiles and drone capabilities, blinding Moscow’s forces from incoming threats. 

Putin's "Inevitable Victory In History's Dustbin" As Ukraine takes 100 Sq Miles In May

In the four week period ending May 28th, Ukrainian forces took over 100 square miles from the reeling Russians, confirming the growing sense that Ukraine has changed the war on the ground and the narrative on the airwaves. This followed a net Russian loss of 26 square miles in April.

The combined effect of Ukraine's frontline advances, devastating mid-range logistics destruction campaign and long range economic targeting appear to be too much for the Kremlin's overmatched military. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

The broader picture shows a deterioration for Russian forces. Their progress for the last month has taken small parcels in different areas, but has not been significant and has come at a massive cost in manpower and resources.  In the four weeks ending 26 May 2026, Russian forces suffered a net loss of 100 square miles of Ukrainian territory, with a net loss of 26 square miles in the preceding month. In the week of 19-26 May, Russia lost 38 square miles. Ukraine’s mid-range drone campaign appears to be exerting effects on Russian operational capacity in the south.  Russia’s Spring offensive, as a cohesive campaign, has not generated the tempo to change the situation on the ground. Putin’s ’inevitable victory’ narrative seems to now be firmly in the dustbin of history.