Ukraine Drone Raids Spark Chaos In Russia Days Before Putin's Red Square Parade

Ukrainian drone strikes on military and logistics targets inside Russia days before the Red Square 'victory' parade are causing chaos in Russia as flights are cancelled, airports shut down and preparations for the parade include practicing how to evacuate senior officials and guests. 

The larger point is to illustrate to Russians that three years into the war, the Kremlin is incapable of defending itself, let alone its people. JL

Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek:

Ukrainian drones fired into Russia have hit military facilities and airbases, disrupted airports, caused flight cancellations, internet outages and forced school closures. Drones struck Russian strategic defense industry facilities, including weapons and military technology sites. Chaos caused by Ukrainian drones ahead of Moscow's May 9 Victory Day celebrations in the Russian capital's Red Square has been reported. Victory parade preparations include drills on how to evacuate top officials from Red Square.

US Special Envoy Admits Putin Is Main Obstacle To Peace Deal

Despite Putin's obstinacy, the US has so far refused to increase sanctions or other penalties on Russia. It has. on the other hand, resumed sales of military equipment to Ukraine, which it may view as a punishment for the Kremlin. JL 

Tim Zadorozhny reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine suggested creating a demilitarized zone jointly controlled by Kyiv and Moscow, U.S. special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg said in a Fox News interview. Kellogg said the main obstacle to reaching a deal is Putin's refusal to accept a ceasefire. The arrangement could accompany a ceasefire "in place," meaning both sides would maintain control of the territory they currently occupy. Putin's demands require Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts

The Reason Ukraine Re-Invaded Kursk 4 Days Before Moscow's V-Day Parade

Ukrainian forces re-invaded Russia's Kursk oblast on May 5, four days before the Kremlin's annual Victory Day parade. 

The Ukrainian offensive has two purposes: the first, military, reason is to force Russia to keep troops deployed in Kursk rather than moving them to other sectors of the front. The second reason is that it embarrasses Putin and serves as a reminder that the Russian military is weak and ineffectual, despite Kremlin posturing about how they are 'winning.' JL

Serhiy Zgurets reports in Espreso Global:

On May 5, Ukrainian forces attacked from the north and south of Tyotkino in the Kursk region, as well as near the village of Novyi Put. The Ukrainians are imposing their own rules on the Russians. The Ukrainian military is trying to isolate the Russian units near the village of Tyotkino and in the Hlushkivskyi district of Kursk. A Russian UAV control center in Tyotkino was hit by airstrikes. The strike killed 20 Russian soldiers. Russia will be forced to disperse its forces, and its plans have been disrupted. This could reduce Russia’s ability to secure areas bordering Sumy. (And) to show that on Russia’s Victory Day in parades on Red Square, Russia is incapable of defending its own territory. 

How a Ukrainian Leopard Tank Survived 10 FPV Drone Strikes

A Ukrainian Leopard tank survived 10 drone strikes - which would have destroyed any Russian tank - illustrating the superiority of their design and durability. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

A Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 tank in eastern Ukraine survived certain death for any Russian tank—10 first-person-view (FPV) drone strikes that triggered an ammunition explosion. On 50 occasions since the first of the 61-ton, four-person tanks reached the front line, they’ve run over Russian mines or been struck by Russian anti-tank missiles, drones, or artillery. But the Ukrainians have lost just 12 Leopard 2A4s. The Leopard 2A4 tend to have better optics and fire controls. But it’s their protection that makes them so durable. Crews use turret stowage, even if that means a reduction in the tank’s 42-shell capacity. Unlike the hull compartment, the turret compartment has a blow-out panel. When a Leopard 2A4 gets hit and the ammo cooks off, it explodes outward

Russian Infantry Attacks' Effectiveness Declining As Average Troop Age Gets Older

One of the reasons the Russians are using more motorbikes - in addition to the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones against traditional armor - is that the average age of Russian soldiers is getting older, meaning that they cannot maneuver or run like younger troops so need added boost. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

The effectiveness of Russian infantry attacks is decreasing due to the lack of young recruits. "They have a tendency for the average age in combat units to get older. “Previously, they were young guys, but now they are 40-plus uncles. We have the same problem, but we are on the defense. And they have this problem because they attack and storm. Uncles, especially if they are from the Russian hinterland, do not run very well, especially if they are also loaded.”

Ukraine Launches (Another) Surprise Offensive Against Russia's Kursk Oblast

Ukrainian forces have launched yet another surprise offensive against Russia's Kursk oblast just a month after Moscow claimed to have retaken it - and just days before Putin's latest victory parade in what is seen as a cleverly timed assault that will embarrass the Kremlin and further undermine its military's already tarnished reputation. JL

TVP World reports:

Ukrainian forces, taking advantage of rainy weather conditions breached the border into Russia's Kursk region just a month after Moscow claimed to have expelled Kyiv's forces. They fired missiles, crossed minefields and sent in troops. "The enemy blew up bridges at night, and launched an attack with armored vehicles in the morning. Mine clearance vehicles made passages in minefields followed by armor. There is a heavy battle going on at the border."

Was This the Week Putin Badly Miscalculated?

With renewed arms shipments from the US to Ukraine, lots of negative commentary about Russian military capabilities from US politicians and all in addition to Ukraine's bold refusal to guarantee the safety of anyone - including heads of state - attending Moscow's annual Victory Day parade, there are signs that Putin's may have miscalculated his chances in Ukraine as well as his putative hold over the White House. 

The US administration offered Putin everything he could have wanted short of complete Ukrainian capitulation. But he turned the deal down, and not especially politely. This could be a scripted kabuki-like ploy to convince the world that they disagree in order to make the US look better in the short term. But it is more likely that Putin thought he had a deal, whereas if the world has learned anything over the past hundred days, it is that all deals require further concessions - and no deal is final. Especially when your army continues to underperform on the ground. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Putin made a serious miscalculation (because he believed he had the USA in the bag). Trump offered him everything he could have wanted, and Putin seems to have rashly turned it down. In doing so Putin might very well have miscalculated about Russian strength, how far the US will go to help him, and the state of Ukraine. It could be a fateful error. The Russians then turned around and made a preposterous suggestion that, as a sign of goodwill, Ukraine and Russia should undertake a three day ceasefire starting May 8. This was the most self-serving of gestures as it would allow Putin to hold his Victory Day Parade on May 9th in Red Square without fear of Ukrainian long-range attack. The Ukrainians refused to guarantee the safety of anyone attending the parade.