As Russia's Arms Exports Drop 93%, Its Best Tanks Lose Laser Guidance

Russia's decline in military exports was originally intended to help it make up extraordinary and unexpected losses being suffered in Ukraine. The assumption was that this crucial source of export trade revenue would soon be made up. 

But three years after its invasion, Russia has found that western sanctions have made it difficult to produce complex weapons systems like modern tanks, leading to having to field its own tanks in battle without crucial components like laser guided targeting, making them more vulnerable. And, in a negative spiral, also making them less attractive for export. JL

Jordan King and Jasmine Laws report in Newsweek:

Russia's most advanced battle tank is no longer fitted with laser-guided devices because of the "attritional effect" of U.S. sanctions. These devices, which help tank crews fire accurately, "mysteriously disappeared" from T-90Ms. The absence of these devices is "to the detriment of the survivability of the crew." (In a related development), exports of Russian weapons will have dropped by 93% in three years. The reason for the drop in sales was to enable Russia to produce more weapons for its own army, but Russia "cannot fully replace" the weapons it was burning through during its conflict with Ukraine and is unable to compensate for its losses."

As Assad Falls, Trump Pressures Putin To End Ukraine War, Cites Russia's and Iran's "Weakened State"

When you're Vladimir Putin and you've lost your buddy, Donald Trump...

Following news of Assad's fall earlier today, Trump took to Truth Social and called on Putin to end his war in Ukraine, citing Russia's and Iran's 'weakened state.' That Trump would call out Putin in such a way, reveals that he is aware of Putin's precarious military and economic situation, and that he intends to use it to bolster his own leverage as the most powerful global deal maker, potentially giving Ukraine a better deal than many had anticipated. JL

The Washington Post and Defense Express report:

Shortly after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday morning, President-elect Donald Trump pressured his chief international backer, Russia, to end its war in Ukraine. As of this morning, a frigate of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and cargo ship of the Northern Fleet set sail from Tartus to the Mediterranean sea. The move is part of a retreat after the loss of Damascus. The Russians are also transferring military equipment and weapons from Syria to Russia using military aircraft operating out of the Hmeymim Airbase. The Assad regime’s fall fulfills a longtime U.S. foreign policy goal, after Russia and Iran supported Assad.  “Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, said Trump”

How Ukraine Destroyed North Koreans Training At Covert Site Near Kursk

Rather than creating separate North Korean units, the Russians planned to integrate them into "Buryat Naval Infantry Battalions" allegedly composed of Russian ethnic tribesmen. But the designated Marine brigade was annihilated in Kursk oblast so the Russians redeployed a paratroop unit to serve that purpose. 

The Ukrainians were able to track such a large redeployment and identified its purpose. In a two step process, they first eliminated air defenses designed to protect the paras and North Koreans, then launched missile attacks which destroyed the North Korean training site. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukraine’s air strikes have targeted Russia’s North Korean forces in training. Instead of forming North Korean units, Russia opted to integrate these troops into Marine brigades, camouflaging their presence. "Buryat battalions" exploited the resemblance between Buryats and Koreans to obscure the identity of the North Koreans and to blend into Russian Marine brigades. But the plan unraveled as the 155th Marines suffered catastrophic losses in Kursk, ceasing to function as an effective unit, disrupting the integration, leaving North Korean troops without functioning units. Russia’s 76th VDV Division were then redeployed to Kursk creating movements easier to track. Ukrainians destroyed an S-400 air defense system followed by a JDAM strike on the Russian-Korean deployment site.

Ukraine Has Put 33% Of Russia's Military Fuel Supply Facilities Out Of Action

The facilities are not easily repaired because imported equipment, now restricted by sanctions, is required. 

These disruptions have contributed to Russia's difficulties in making more than minimal gains in its Donbas and Kursk offensives. JL

Ivan Khomenko reports in United24:

One-third of facilities supplying fuel to the Russian military have been damaged or rendered inoperable due to operations carried out by Ukrainian forces. The damaged infrastructure primarily includes oil refineries and storage facilities. Both public data and intelligence reports confirm these disruptions. Significant challenges exist in restoring operations, primarily due to reliance on imported equipment. Further complicating the situation for Russia, external restrictions on the import of fuel and lubricants have intensified the operational difficulties.

Russia Can't Dislodge Ukraine From Kursk Due To Casualties, Armor Damage

Because of the pressure they are under to meet yet another of Putin's deadlines, Russian commanders in Kursk are sacrificing troops and armor in vain attempts to gain ground.

But the Ukrainians are well dug in, using layered defenses and are relatively well equipped. As a result, the massive Russian losses are yielding insignificant results which limit their ability for further advances. JL

Espreso Ukraine reports:

Despite heavy assaults in the Kursk region, Russian troops can't dislodge Ukrainian forces. Russia is moving its most capable units to the Kursk region to push Ukrainian Defense Forces out by January 20. However, they are not succeeding because “There are very large losses in personnel. If they fail to successfully conduct a mechanized assault, they start attacking with infantry groups. The most 810th Marine Brigade of the Russians is now acting against us (but) this is their second or even third unit, because their losses are very serious. It is this brigade that is being reinforced by North Koreans, and reinforcements are being sent to them from Sevastopol, but they are being wiped out every day"

OpenAI Launches $200 Per Month 'Reasoning' ChatGpt Subscriber Model

Amid concerns that Chat Gpt user growth has been flatlining, OpenAI has introduced a new model it claims  reduces 'major errors' by 34%, as the model is designed to check its own work. The leap in pricing reflects investor pressure to reduce the company's ongoing massive financial losses. The chart is as of December 2024. JL

Kyle Wiggers reports in Tech Crunch:

OpenAI announced ChatGPT Pro, a new $200-per-month subscription tier that provides unlimited access to all of OpenAI’s models, including the full version of its o1 “reasoning” model. Unlike most AI, o1 and other reasoning models attempt to check their own work as they do it.  o1 can reason about image uploads, and has been trained to be “more concise in its thinking” to improve response times. o1 reduces “major errors” on “difficult real-world questions” by 34%. The aggressive pricing moves reflect pressure on OpenAI from investors to narrow its losses.

Syrian Rout Threatens Humiliating 'Saigon Moment' For Russia

As Syrian forces advance on the last major city between them and Damascus, Russia and Iran have begun evacuating their military, diplomatic and commercial personnel. Syrian president Assad's wife and family have reportedly already fled the country. 

Should the rebels take Damascus, it will signal a humiliating 'Saigon moment' for the Kremlin in which a country supposedly well supplied and backed militarily by Russia falls to a ragtag collection of rebel groups. This reinforces the image from three years of war in Ukraine, that the Russian army, navy and air force - as well as the weapons they use - are less fearsome than once believed. And the loss of Syria will also undermine Putin's attempts to claim a dominant position in Ukraine. JL

Sune Rasmussen and Thomas Grove report in the Wall Street Journal:

A  rebel offensive in Syria threatens to dislodge Russia from a country that Moscow has used to project power in the Middle East, in the Mediterranean and into Africa. It also challenges Putin’s efforts to portray Moscow as a flag bearer for an alternative global order. “To see Russian planes leave Syria as rebel forces move towards their air bases, and their assets in Damascus fall, this is devastating for the Russian image of itself. It is akin to a Saigon moment for them. Losing Syria would be a strategic defeat that would reverberate beyond the Middle East and have global repercussions. Russia seemed to always think it was superior to Iran but finds itself a lot more reliant on them now,”