New Ukraine Weapons, Tactics Result In Russia Having Worst Year Since Invasion

New types of drones for varying distances and targets, new battle management systems to better coordinate attack or defense and - crucially - new organization of troops and units to bring maximum effectiveness to any point on the battlefield. 

All have contributed to Ukraine's success this year which an emerging consensus has agreed is Russia's worst year of the war since they started it. JL

Sinead Baker reports in Business Insider:

Russia is having its worst year since the invasion in 2022. Ukraine has been striking targets once treated as safe, and regaining ground. New tactics and drone tech have allowed it to build momentum. New drone types are allowing Ukraine to hit depots, vehicles, air defenses, and supply routes that support Russian troops at the front. The goal is to isolate the battlefield, making it harder for Russia to move troops and supplies where they are needed. Better planning and new systems mean Ukraine is better at using those weapons strategically rather than simply reacting to Russian assaults. Destruction of Russian logistics, depots, and other targets has increased fourfold. "Ukraine's actions are "actively challenging" the grinding nature of the war. "Ukraine has a unique opportunity to exploit its current initiative while Russian forces remain vulnerable."

Moscow, St Petersburg Forced To Limit Gas Sales After Ukraine Fuel Attacks

One of the Kremlin's goals in continuing to pursue the increasingly stymied invasion of Ukraine was to insulate the residents of its two most important cities, Moscow and St Petersburg, from the impact of the conflict. That is no longer possible due to Ukrainian long range drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure whose capacity has been significantly reduced. 

The implication is that, despite his disdain for public opinion, Putin must now at least pay attention to - if not yet worry about - the growing pressure that inconvenience combined with economic impact brings to support for his war. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

Following recent Ukrainian drone strikes on key oil facilities, Russian media reported some Tatneft-operated gas stations in Moscow limited sales of AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline to 20 liters (5 gallons) per customer and diesel fuel to 40 liters (10 gallons) per customer. Other major retailers imposed similar restrictions. Rosneft capped purchases at 90 liters (24 gallons) per vehicle or container, while Lukoil limited sales to 100 liters (26 gallons) per transaction. Similar measures were introduced at gas stations in St. Petersburg.

Ukraine Destroys Hiding Russian Armor Before It Can Launch Myrnorhad Attack

Throughout occupied Donetsk oblast, the Russians have been using abandoned coal mines as hiding places for their increasingly vulnerable armor. This was - once upon a time - a clever use of such cover. But not anymore. 

With the increased deployment of increasingly sophisticated drones and skillful drone pilots, Ukrainian forces were able to detect the presence of the armored personnel carriers intended for an assault in Myrnohrad (next to Pokrovsk) towards the fortress belt city of Kramotorsk. Virtually all of the Russian armor and a number of the troops servicing or preparing to attack in them were also eliminated. Which explains why the Russians still do not have a complete grip on Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk as well as a good chance of taking the fortress belt anytime soon. JL

Sania Kozatzkyi reports in Militarnyi, David Axe reports in Trench Art:

FPV drones from the Ukrainian 414th Unmanned Systems Brigade detected Russian forces staging up-armored MT-LB infantry carriers in a disused coal mine for an assault north of the ruins of Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian armor assigned to that assault toward Kramatorsk never left. The armored vehicles were detected and struck in the area of the Kapitalna Mine (formerly the Stakhanova Mine) in Myrnohrad. Within an hour, Ukrainian drone operators hit four MT-LB tracked armored infantry vehicles. In addition, six ATVs were destroyed on the mine’s grounds. A passenger vehicle used for the same purpose was also destroyed. The Russian army in Ukraine rarely deploys armored vehicles for direct assaults anymore. One pre-emptive Ukrainian drone raid is a healthy reminder why the Russians have held back their armor. 

Token Usage Is Not An Impact Measure: the Free-Spending AI Binge Is Over

Reports from large corporate users of AI indicate the beginning of an evolutionary change in their approach. Until now, consumption as calculated by token usage was the metric of choice. Eg, if we're using AI, good things will happen. But surveys now reveal that massive AI spending has not only failed to deliver earnings, companies cannot even figure out how to measure gains - or their absence. 

The result has not been a panicked pull-back, but the emergence in smart, forward-looking organizations of a more disciplined approach that seeks to test AI impact on desired outcomes, with subsequent, related adjustments not just in spending, but - have we been here before, tech users? - in how teams are organized, incentivized and led. Rinse and repeat: there is no such thing as plug and play. Optimized impact requires experimentation, iterative re-alignment and, yes, investment in the much-maligned 'soft stuff' like how to actually make a potentially disruptive new technology work effectively inside a large, complex, already fully functioning enterprise. Better late than never. JL

Anthony Lopopolo reports in Quartz:

For the past two years, the prevailing logic inside large tech companies was: the more AI, the better. Budgets were open-ended, consumption was the metric; anyone asking hard questions about returns was missing the point. That logic is breaking down. The free spending phase is over. A survey found 80% of respondents weren't seeing impact on earnings from AI. Even with full AI automation, output gains would be capped at 26% without changes to how teams review, test, and ship code. The companies now building governance frameworks around AI (could) capture returns the consumption-first approach never delivered. The companies getting the most from AI spending stop measuring consumption and start measuring returns. The tooling to do that exists. Doing it before caps calcify into budgets will determine whether this marks disciplined AI investment or just the end of the free-spending phase. "Token usage alone is not a measure of impact." 

As Ukraine Gains In War, It Reorganizes Army, To Become Best Paid, Best Led

In the midst of the most brutal combat since WWII, Ukraine has quietly reorganized its military to make it more effective. And the results are now becoming evident on the battlefield as the Russian offensives falter and Ukraine makes territorial gains while strangling the Kremlin's logistics.

The first major change was the growth of the drone units, which quite literally saved the country. Then, creating corps, under which brigades could be coordinated for better capability in identifying and seizing opportunities as well as defending against threats. Now, Ukraine is working to make its fighting arms - infantry, armor, artillery and unmanned systems - the most professional, best led, best paid and best equipped in the world. The country is acknowledging that it can never field as many troops as the Russians. But the soldiers they deploy will have the best intelligence and equipment and will be more motivated, respected - and more lethal than their opponents. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Over the last few years the Ukrainians have decided to fight their war in their way—and in 2026 we can the the positive impact as they are no longer supplicants. Ukraine is (working) to attract and support excellence in its front-line combat forces through historically high pay, positive rewards, and fair treatment. The range of what they proposed was stunning (especially considering the way the Russians treat their soldiers who are fighting with the Ukrainians). They do not need mass as much as excellence, and want the best. The modern battle environment is dangerous and complex. There are only two ways to deal with it—you can massacre your own population by sending it into it, or you can rely on small numbers of excellent soldiers who have the best possible equipment, tech and C2 supporting them.

Crimea Effectively Cut Off By Ukraine Strikes, Cutting Supplies In and Out

The strategic brilliance of Ukraine's 'logistics lockdown' campaign is becoming clearer. Russian forces - approximately 110,000 troops - and civilians in Crimea are increasingly cut off from fuel and other supplies as all of the crossings from Russian-occupied southern Ukraine have now been attacked and damaged, most significantly. 

But the impact also affects supplies destined from Crimea to the Russian forces deployed to attack in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and even southern Donetsk. They are also experiencing a reduction in ammunition, fuel, reinforcements and other essentials, which has contributed to the failure of this year's spring and summer 'offensives' and, in many cases, given Ukrainian units the ability to advance through increasingly successful counterattacks. JL

RFU News reports:

Ukraine is increasingly isolating the Russian army in Crimea. Ukrainian forces struck the Chonhar Bridge again after repair efforts from the last strike. Attacks were also made against the crossing near Armiansk, the second major route to Crimea. Two bridges to the west near Stavky and Myrne were also damaged. Finally, the Ukrainians targeted the crossing on the Arabat Spit near Henichesk, where a new road for logistics had been constructed. The significance lies in the pattern of strikes; Ukraine is no longer targeting a single bridge, but systematically attacking the entire network of crossings connecting Crimea with Russian-controlled southern Ukraine. All of them were damaged. Russian cargo traffic along the main southern logistics corridor fell 71% over the last two weeks. Crimea has been cut off, with vital supplies unable to reach the Russian forces in Kherson and Zaporizhia.

The White House War On Anthropic Exemplifies How the US Will Lose the AI Race

In a continuation of its petulant retribution against any individual or organization that dares to contest an administration demand, the White House on Friday issued an 'export control' on Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AIs, meaning that they cannot be sold, nor can any non-US citizen use them. Given that many - and perhaps a majority - of AI researchers, even working for US companies, are not US citizens, that means that virtually no onE can have access to it. 

There appear to be no national security, safety or legal reasons for this punitive action. It is, in fact, contrary to US interests. But when a country is governed by a corrupt administration that promotes 'pay to play' (eg, actively solicits bribes), plays favorites, or puts ideological considerations ahead of science, technology, competence and the rule of law, this is the result. Former Citibank CEO Walter Wriston once said that 'capital goes where it is wanted and stays where it is well-treated.' That is not, currently, the US. An advantage the US has had over China is that it tends to resist too much regulation and protects both individuals and corporations through the rule of law. That is no longer the case and the implication is investors and entrepreneurs will increasingly seek - and find - locales where they have more freedom to operate. JL

Matteo Wong reports in The Atlantic:

On Friday, the White House deemed Fable 5 a threat to national security and gave Anthropic 90 minutes to take down it and Mythos 5. When Anthropic did not, the government issued an export control that prevents any foreign national from using them, even those employed by Anthropic in the US. Anthropic then shut down the bots for all its customers meaning no one in the US can use the most powerful AI in the world. The White House has tussled with Anthropic, which positions itself as more safety-oriented than other tech companies. In February, the Pentagon labeled the company a “supply-chain risk”—a move that AI, national-security, and legal experts deemed ideologically motivated, lacking legal basis. Trump’s tendency to change his mind on a whim and play favorites is “exactly the reason why you don’t want to give the executive such discretion.” It’s perilous to build a product or invest when the government might at any time wreck your plans.