The Myth of the Drone-Only Battlefield Put To Rest By Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi

For those willing to see, the most successful technological template has been evident years. There is no real plug and play which magically replaces humans. 

Instead, the most effective implementation of technology in business has been among organizations that recognize a completely disruptive and expensive approach ultimately works best: reorganize roles and reporting lines, rethink tactics and strategies, encouraging highly skilled staff to embrace and enhance tech's impact. And if you look closely at the success of Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi, that is what the Ukrainian 3rd Corps did to make drones, ground robots and electronic warfare the devastating combination it became. JL

The World Strategist reports:

Over the past two years a narrative gained traction: the conflict in Ukraine has morphed into a “drone war” and the future lies with unmanned systems. Tanks are old school. Soldiers are merely targets. (But) Operation Vivaldi proved drones, robots, electronic warfare, armor, artillery and infantry need to be integrated into one coordinated system. Phase 1 was a shaping and deception operation. And then, the infantry was not replaced by robots, but preceded and accompanied by them. In two nights robots cleared 30 kilometers of routes, which would have taken two engineer companies a week. They laid 400 meters of mine barriers. They also delivered supplies, evacuated wounded and captured positions. Drones have proven to be essential, but not sufficient. Robots are revolutionary, but not a substitute for soldiers. It’s not just drones on the battlefield. It’s combined arms — human led and machine enabled

Russia Is Losing the Land War As Death Gap Rises To 10 Russians For 1 Ukrainian

Vladimir Putin has become as dependent on Donald Trump as Trump has on him, but for different reasons.

Trump is frightened of losing his majorities in the US Senate and Congress from midterm elections in two weeks. His poll ratings continue to sink and a number of his recent positions, including his obvious favoritism for Russia, are deeply unpopular. But he is embracing that stance because he thinks Putin can help him in the midterms, in addition to offering him wealth-enhancing deals in Russia. Putin, on the other hand, appears to know he is losing the land war in Ukraine - and that there is little chance his corrupt, ineffective military can turn the situation around. With a death rate disparity of ten Russians for every Ukrainian and replacement dependent on impoverished, poorly trained Africans and South Americans, Trump's undermining of Ukraine may be his only hope for a somewhat positive negotiated settlement. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Today, relative casualty rates have changed dramatically in Ukraine's favor. The Russians' casualty rate averages one to six, and if you count the killed, it's one to 10 or more (which is contributing) to a continuing degradation in the relative quality and manpower differential between Russia and Ukraine. This helps explain the flailing Russian offensives and confirms why Trump might be desperate to help Putin. The land war, which was always seen as the greatest Russian strength (the mythical steamroller, remember), was transitioning to a Russian weakness. The evidence points more and more to that happening.

After Vivaldi, Russia's 144th Motor Rifle Division Ceased To Exist As Combat Unit

Russia's 144th Motorized Rifle Division, a key element of the Kremlin's 20th Combined Arms Army on the Lyman front, has ceased to exist as an effective fighting force following the casualties and destruction of equipment it suffered at the hands of Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi.

The 144th was stationed in the Lyman salient bridgehead across the Siverskyi Donets River. That salient was a primary focus of Operation Vivaldi and has now been eliminated. As a result, the 144th bore the full brunt of the Ukrainian assault and has been decimated, rendering it operationally ineffective. Its latest dispositions suggest it has been placed in a defensive posture as it awaits rebuilding. JL

Andrii Sukharov reports in Miiitarnyi:

The 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army effectively ceased to operate as an organized military force following Operation Vivaldi. The 144th Division was part of a Russian force operating from a bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River. The Russian plan called for an advance through Svyatogorsk toward Barvinkove. Together with an offensive through Dobropillia, this was intended to encircle the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area and Ukrainian forces in the north of Donetsk region. During Operation Vivaldi, Ukrainian troops eliminated the bridgehead and inflicted significant losses on the Russian offensive group. The division’s current actions are an attempt to establish a defensive position rather than organized offensive operations. 

Stock Market Reminds AI Hypesters: No, This Time Is Not Different

The standard response of tech boosters - including the latest devotees of AI - to those expressing doubts is that they 'just don't get it.' Eg, the rationalists don't have the imagination or courage to see the future. This is generally accompanied by what the boosters believe is their clinching argument: "this time is different."

Unfortunately, it almost never is. And the latest stock market performance of AI stocks as well as the mid to long term economic forecasts suggest that is a structural reality, not a blip. There are a hundred reasons why the latest irrational exuberance is exactly that - and it does no mean AI is not an important development. It just means that the numbers don't add up and cannot support the gauzy projections driving current valuations. JL

James Mackintosh reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Legendary financier John Templeton said the four most dangerous words in investing are: “This time it’s different.” From the canal mania of 1790s, the railway bubble of the 1840s, electrification, radio, television and up to the fiber build-out of the dot-com bubble, investors were disappointed. It took too long for the benefits to be realized, profits were smaller and came later than hoped or competition meant excess profits flowed to the users of the new technology, not its owners. With AI, while prices have gone up, valuations, measured as the price-to-forecast-earnings ratio, have gone down. Investors are paying less per dollar of the earnings in the next year, because they know it won’t last. The valuation of Nvidia, the most valuable U.S. company, has dropped from 23 times predicted earnings to 15 times, even as its shares rose 15%. The AI build-out hasn’t yet shown it can avoid the problems of past massive capital projects. At least so far, this time isn’t different.

This Time At Orikhiv, Ukraine Cuts Off Another Russian Attack Salient

If it works, do it again. Operation Vivaldi proved out the Ukrainian strategy of allowing Russians forces to think they were advancing, creating a salient and then Ukraine's troops quickly move to slash into their flanks and cut them off. 

It worked in Lyman, it is working in Kharkhiv - and now it is working in Zaporizhzhia. The Russians  have not been able to protect their flanks effectively because they don't have enough troops to deliver the gains the Kremlin demands and also afford themselves protection. Eventually that might change. But for now, the Ukrainians are taking advantage. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine is doing what it now does best … allow Russia to massively commit to an offensive, then start scissoring it apart, locking in the force that is already committed, close off their access such as bridges, then interdict their logistics in the rear as far away from the committed formations as possible: Recent reports indicate that this is in motion in the Orikhiv sector of Zaporizhzhia oblast where Ukrainian Forces destroyed bridges in the Huliaipole sector, disrupting Russian supply lines and hindering offensive aimed toward Orikhiv. The Russians have boxed themselves into this failing battle strategy because they are aware that they dare not create a single massive overwhelming thrust … for fear of the Ukrainians in turn executing a flanking maneuver. Again.

As Vivaldi Ends, Putin's Donbas Dream Is Further Away Than Ever

Try as he might to position himself as one of the world's three great dictators (beside his superiors, Xi and Trump), Putin's military continues to expose the growing weakness of  Russian power. 

Yes, he can bombard civilian targets in Ukraine, spike riots in France, threaten NATO bases in Europe with occasional drones and otherwise remain a global pest, but on the Ukrainian battlefield, where it counts, his army has been conclusively defeated again, in the Lyman as Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi has again derailed his so far unattainable dream of taking the Donbas despite almost five years of trying. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Putin's goal of seizing the Donbas appears further away than ever as Vivaldi collapsed the Russian salient north of Lyman. The Russians are having their second-worst period of the war for territorial losses. No wonder he is investing so much in getting Trump on side. But, ever the loyal vassal, Russian General Gerasimov sought to cheer up his president this week with entirely fanciful figures about captured territory. “With no significant successes on the battlefield, the Russian military leadership continues to create an illusion of major victories for its political leadership and domestic audience.” 

Operation Vivaldi Phase 4 Finalized Russia's Complete Lyman Defeat

Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi ended as quietly as it began, with the capture of the key, former Russian logistics hub, of Kolodiazi. Like many of the areas retaken by the Ukrainians' 3rd Corps, the village was largely deserted, underscoring the fact that many of the Russians' initial, highly touted 'victories' in this sector were really empty areas of little strategic importance.

The larger lesson of the Vivaldi operation is that Ukraine's strict operational security, thorough planning and precise execution of their battle plan led to a stinging defeat of Russian forces which had hoped to use this territory as a springboard for further Donbas gains. That hope is now in tatters. JL

Yuri Zoria reports in the Euromaidan Press:

During the fourth and final phase of Operation Vivaldi. Ukrainian infantry encircled and retook the village of Kolodiazi north of Lyman without getting drawn into street fighting. The Ist Mechanized drone battalion killed or wounded about 500 Russian troops during the fourth phase and struck "more than two hundred pieces of equipment: Grad and Uragan rocket launchers, armored vehicles, tanks, armored combat vehicles. Most of all motorbikes and quad bikes, there the count runs into the hundreds. This is our enemy’s main logistics tool.” Vivaldi’s four phases retook 277 km² and 16 settlements, and Russian forces suffered more than ten times more casualties than Ukrainians forces.