'Geopolitically strategic asymmetry' is a polite way of saying Russia is increasingly screwed. And the Kremlin has no one to blame but itself. By invading, then failing over almost five years of brutal warfare to subdue its smaller target and then compounding that failure by committing horrific war crimes on the ground and from the air - as well as subjecting itself to aerial drone and missile retribution - the Russians have not only become a global pariah, but have exposed their own vulnerabilities while Ukraine's support grows.
Putin's two closest allies, Iran and North Korea, are bankrupt and the former is, itself, under attack. China faces economic challenges of its own so is using Russia's even greater weakness to demand bigger discounts on what oil and other resources Russia can still manage to deliver. Ukraine, meanwhile is getting stronger both on the battlefield and economically, while its European partners, as well as those from the rest of the civilized world, instead of querulously backing down as Putin expected, have increased their Ukrainian support. Europe, it should be added, is doing quite well economically, especially when compared to Russia's erstwhile 'allies.' Outraged that it is now suffering while Europe refuses to back down, the Kremlin is amping up its attacks on NATO countries, but at this stage, those are more likely to backfire into even more support than not. JL
Yaroslav Trofimov reports in the Wall Street Journal:
Russia faces a fundamental asymmetry as it seeks to beat Ukraine into submission. Kyiv can rely on a secure hinterland beyond its borders—Europe—for economic resilience and military logistics. Ukraine’s military uses hubs in countries like Poland, Germany and Romania, while Ukrainian defense companies have established production lines across Europe. The Kremlin, whose industries are under attack by Ukrainian missiles and drones, has no such backup. None of Russia's allies are openly supporting its war. Hits to Russia’s economy translate more directly into damage to it’s ability to keep the war going. Russia, has to pay for its war at a time when its economy is weak. Moscow’s closest allies, Iran and North Korea, are broke. China faces economic headwinds. Many in Russia are calling for escalation against Europe but that could massively backfire. Ukraine’s Western supporters, and Ukraine itself, have ways of inflicting more pain on Russia if the conflict escalates.