A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Oct 22, 2026

'Several Thousand' Russian Aerial Targets Destroyed By Ukraine During Vivaldi

The complexity of the factors that went into Operation Vivaldi's success continues to surprise and impress. 

Among the unheralded efforts that contributed to this was the role of anti-drone interceptor teams which destroyed thousands of Russian recon and FPV drones. Without their elimination, it is unlikely that the Ukrainian infantry and armor would have been able to achieve positive outcomes on the scale that they did. JL

Zoriana Kotola reports in Euromaidan Press:
An interceptor battalion of the 1030th Anti-Aircraft Missile-Artillery Regiment in Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps destroyed several thousand Russian aerial targets during Operation Vivaldi. Russian forces deployed large numbers of Zala, Orlan, Supercam, Merlin, and Knyaz Veshchiy Oleg reconnaissance drones to locate Ukrainian positions after the corps began advancing. The regiment mainly uses conventional air-defense systems against these targets: self-propelled anti-aircraft systems, surface-to-air missile systems, and portable surface-to-air missile systems. The battalion’s work deprived Russian forces of the ability to strike Ukrainian troops and track their movements.

Ukraine's Kill Zone Is AI's Pioneering Battlefield Test Ground For War

AI is already being used, not just in planning and targeting, but in providing options and, in the not too distant future, for predicting enemy actions and the probability of various tactics' success in stopping them. 

The gray area kill zones established across most of the front is where these systems are being tested and honed. Ukraine has an extinction-level impetus to deploy and improve them. The Russians attempting to attack now are its unknowing guinea pigs. JL
 
Jillian Melchior reports in the Wall Street Journal:
Ukraine is pioneering wartime AI, tapping AI to analyze data and automate weapons. Ukraine collects incomprehensible amounts of battlefield information. A single brigade can collect the equivalent of 10 months of video every day, and nationwide the Ukrainian-developed battlefield-management system Delta takes in quadrillions of bytes daily. Agentic AI can analyze data and perform tasks that used to require a staff or several officers. It has tools to let tactical-level units work with sensitive data in the battlefield on a laptop without an internet connection. It will help plan operations, providing commanders options for how to carry out a mission as well as each suggestion’s probability of success. A future stage involves AI-enabled prediction, forecasting enemy actions.  Autonomous drones will expand the kill zone, while AI analysis will accelerate strikes within it. “We can’t avoid using AI. The highest risk in Ukraine is, don’t take the risk.”

Ukraine's Dobropillia Kill Zone Devastates Attempted Russian Attacks

The problem facing Russian forces is that they have been here before. In fact, they've never really left. Which means their tactics, behavior and attack routes are well known. 

The result is that Ukrainian ambushes of attempted Russian assaults have grown in accuracy and lethality, meaning that Russian successes remain...elusive. JL

RFU News reports:
Russian  forces attempting to break through toward Dobropillia are walking into an increasingly devastating Ukrainian kill zone. Despite months of fighting, Russian troops have failed to establish secure control. Russian assault groups advance along two narrow routes extending from Rodynske, offering limited concealment. Much of the landscape consists of exposed fields, and that is where Ukrainian drone operators have established ambushes. Ukrainian recon drones monitor Russian movement, while FPV operators wait. During September alone, Ukraine’s Azov Corps, reported killing 361 Russian soldiers and wounding another 229 along these approaches. Repeated Russian attempts to use the same route have reportedly left dozens of bodies.

Americans Are Packing Town Halls To Stop AI Data Centers. And It's Working.

Call it rage against the machine. Or whatever sounds right locally, but even in tech-friendly communities, the popular uprising against data centers has now caused $260 billion worth of them to be canceled. This year. 

The primary issues are noise, heat, potential health impacts, property value degradation and the rising costs of electricity and water. It does not help the data center/AI cause that these projects tend to be either intentionally vague or downright dishonest about their scale and impact - and that they are being promoted by tech billionaires whose disdain for the public has become increasingly evident. This movement, which echoes - and encompasses - previous popular US uprisings of the past two decades also promises to be a deciding factor in the upcoming midterm elections. JL

Anthony Lopopolo reports in Quartz:
Developers have called off at least $260 billion in planned U.S. data center projects this year. The cancellations are coming faster, too. In dollars, the projects called off from July through September were bigger than every data center project canceled in all of 2025 put together. Neighbors win these fights by knowing more about a project than the official record does. In Monterey Park, Calif., a married couple went through more than 1,000 pages of the developer's paperwork and found the data center would use as much electricity as a city three times the size of theirs. "We needed to raise the alarm." Across the country, Americans have turned against a data center in their own area much faster. In a survey taken from mid-June to mid-July, 61% of U.S. adults said they oppose building new data centers in their area, up from 49% in the spring

Oct 21, 2026

Russia's Rubikon Drone Unit Unused To Being Hunted, Panicked During Vivaldi

Embracing a strategy made famous by Alexander the Great a couple of thousand years ago, the Ukrainians decided to target Russia's best unit - the Rubikon Unmanned Systems Forces - during Operation Vivaldi.

And what they learned, as a result, surprised them. The famously ruthless and effective Rubikons turned out to be rather sensitive to being hunted themselves, and experience to which they were not accustomed. When the Ukrainians specifically targeted Rubikon operators and their casualties rose, Rubikon units abandoned their positions and fled. JL

Mezha News reports:
During Operation Vivaldi, which lasted from May to mid-October, units of the Russian Rubicon Center for Unmanned Systems abandoned their positions after suffering heavy losses. Ukrainian specialists focused on killing personnel from the Russian unit rather than destroying its antennas. "They are actually very sensitive to losses. These guys are used to being moved to a sector, doing their job, hunting our pilots, and then dodging away. They aren’t used to being hunted. When Rubicon began losing its pilots to deaths, morale among its members fell sharply right away."

Ukrainians Have Crossed the Siverskyi-Donets River In Force

Crossing the Siverskyi Donets with small teams of special forces was significant enough, because it underscored the degree to which the Russians had lost control not just of the Lyman salient, but of their ability to defend their fallback positions.

By crossing the river in force with larger units in several locations, the Ukrainians are putting additional pressure on the Russians to try to defend what they have left in that sector, as opposed to even thinking about offensive operations. JL 

Raj K reports in Medium:
The Ukrainian army has crossed a key natural barrier—the Siverskyi Donets River. The most important result of this advance is that Russian soldiers are now being pushed back behind the same natural barriers that took them months and heavy resources to cross. The first sign that the Russian defense line was breaking came from reports by Russian military bloggers who admitted that Russian soldiers have been driven out of Pyskunivka and had now taken defensive positions on the approaches to Kryva Luka. The Ukrainian soldiers are putting pressure on them by crossing the river from the direction of Ozerne as well as from the west. With Ukrainian control established on both banks of the river, the Russian army has been pushed into an extremely vulnerable and defensive position just before the arrival of winter.

Over 100 Russians Killed, 29 Captured By Ukraine Special Ops In Sumy

In addition to recent successes around Lyman, Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkhiv, Ukrainian forces have now reported that they stymied Russian advance attempts in Sumy oblast, inflicting heavy casualties and again, as in Lyman, taking an unusually large number of Russian prisoners. JL

Tania Myronyshena reports in the Kyiv Independent and Mezha reports:
Ukrainian special forces killed 108 Russian soldiers, captured another 29, and struck more than 1,100 Russian targets during a seven-week operation in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian operatives cleared Russian troops  from more than 600 hectares of forest before handing over the positions to Ukraine's Defense Forces. The operation took place in 2 stages, which thwarted Russian offensive plans and prevented Russian troops from cutting off Ukrainian logistical routes in the region.