Putin's "Senseless Decisions," Security Paranoia Spark Disillusionment

The reports of disillusionment with Putin's leadership just keep coming. From pictures of him like the one at left with his massive phalanx of very large security service protectors to concerns that the faltering Ukraine invasion is being prolonged by senseless, self-destructive decisions abetted by dishonest military reporting, there is a growing sense that he has lost the narrative. 

There are, as of yet, no credible reports of potential coups, but a lingering disappointment with his inability to find a way out that will lead to an unhappy ending for everyone in Russia. JL

Pjotr Sauer and Shaun Walker report in The Guardian:

Putin is entering the most challenging period of his rule. People in his orbit, as well as sources in the Russian business world and western intelligence officials, paint a picture of an isolated leader surrounded by an elite that is disillusioned, both with the faltering war in Ukraine and the economic downturn. “There’s definitely been a shift in mood among the elites...profound disappointment in Putin, a growing sense that some kind of catastrophe is looming. There is a growing realisation that utterly senseless, self-destructive decisions keep being made. People who once defended Putin no longer do. Any sense of a future has disappeared.” The Russian president has meanwhile increased his travel schedule in recent weeks, in an attempt to counter narratives over his security paranoia.

Russia Loses More Ground Due To Ukraine Assaults, Logistics Strikes

Combining assaults on the battlefields at the front with mid-range drone attacks on Russian logistics routes, Ukrainian forces have gained significantly more ground in May. 

The near and mid range initiatives work in tandem by putting pressure on Russian units at the front which then face difficulties with resupply and reinforcement, making them less capable of fending off the advancing Ukrainians. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

In the  week from 12 to 19 May, Russia lost a net 29 square miles, a significant reversal attributed partly to Ukrainian interdiction of Russian logistics across southern Ukraine and partly to Ukrainian counterattack operations in the north.  Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kharkiv Oblast as well as in the Kupyansk, Borova (Lyman) and Hulyaipole directions as Ukrainian forces seize and hold local initiatives. Ukraine has been prosecuting a systematic and increasingly effective interdiction campaign against Russian logistics across southern Ukraine and along the land bridge connecting Russia to Crimea. This campaign, operating in the 50-to-150-km range, is the most consequential military development of recent months as it disrupts or destroys Russian forces, supplies and command systems behind or en route to the front before they can be used.

Russia's New Kyiv Strikes Are Offset of "Humiliating Request For Parade Ceasefire"

The Kremlin's savage bombardment of civilian targets in Kyiv is not the demonstration of strength it believes but an admission of weakness and humiliation. 

Putin has evidently yet to recover from being forced to beg Trump to intercede on his behalf with Zelensky so that he could have his armor-less 45 minute 'victory' parade without fear of Ukrainian drone attack. The latest missile and drone attacks on Kyiv are part of his increasingly futile effort to project military might even as his army is being pushed back by Ukrainian forces on the ground and his air defenses are exposed as somewhere between inadequate and nonexistent. Putin's vulnerability is obvious and growing. Taking that out on Kyiv's civilians is his pathetic answer. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Russia's strikes on Kyiv are to recover from the humiliation of having to ask Ukraine for a ceasefire and permission to hold Victory Day parade. The strikes are an attempt to obfuscate Russia’s weakness and distract from Russia’s inability to protect its capital and other deep-rear cities from Ukraine’s intensifying long-range drone strikes. Putin is also struggling to shield the Russian population from the strain on the Russian economy as a result of his war, and Russian economic and societal issues are generating domestic discontent with Putin and his government. Russian forces are also failing to make operationally significant advances in their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, as Ukrainian counterattacks, drone dominance, and mid–range strike campaign are inhibiting Russia while increasing the material and personnel cost of its Ukraine operations.

Bank CEO Apologizes For Saying "AI Replaces Lower Value Human Capital" As NY Fed Reports Actual Impact On Jobs "Muted"

It was apparent that CEOs' bragging about AI's value being enhanced because of all the human jobs it would eliminate had gone too far and would get some executive, as well as the AI industry in trouble. So it is fitting that a bank CEO, a species who can always be counted on to celebrate the numbers over the social cost, became the first to get savaged for his comments. 

Aside from the insensitivity - not that that is considered a serious faux pas these days - the comment turns out to be wrong so far. Research from the New York Federal Reserve Bank reveals that tech layoffs began showing up in the data four years ago so that AI is not only not the primary cause, but is not even mostly responsible for entry level hiring slowdowns. Interestingly, research suggests that AI usage remains relatively low due to cost and complexity, which explains why its impact on hiring and productivity is muted. Meanwhile, AI CEOs like Nvidia's Jensen Huang, worried that the blame game is contributing to global AI opposition, are calling CEOs who cite it 'lazy.' But the larger issue is that with Silicon Valley vehemently opposing any regulation and without enough data, intelligent policy prescriptions are difficult to make. JL

Joe Wallace reports in the Wall Street Journal and Emma Ockerman reports in Yahoo Finance:

Standard Charter CEO Bill Winters' comment that the bank would replace “lower-value human capital” with AI backfired. Three hours later, he posted an apology. AI continues to be blamed for a spate of job cuts, but the New York Federal Reserve found “the slowdown in postings is not concentrated in entry-level highly exposed jobs,” countering a narrative that AI is largely responsible for young people’s difficulties in getting hired. (And) “the divergence between high- and low-exposure occupations began before 2022 at odds with AI displacing exposed occupations. While AI may be contributing, it is not the main driver of the slowdown in hiring.” As AI adoption has become mainstream in some sectors, “usage still appears relatively low, explaining the mostly muted impacts on productivity and the labor market so far.”

Chechen Akhmat Battalion Training Area Destroyed by Ukraine Himars

Given their savage reputation but indifferent battlefield performance, it is unlikely that anyone outside of Chechnya will mourn them. JL

Dmytro Shumlianskyi reports in Militarnyi:

Ukrainian forces launched a missile strike using HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems on an Akhmat Battalion training area in the Kursk region. Ukrainian reconnaissance drones detected Russian activity at an improvised training area near the border with Ukraine. Shortly afterward, missiles were launched at the site. Preliminary reports indicate “dozens” of casualties.

Ukraine's Drones Now Have Putin's Russia-Crimea Land Bridge Under Fire Control

Putin's dream was to create a 'fact on the ground' by establishing a so-called land bridge from Russia to Crimea vis occupied southern Ukraine. 

In 2026, that dream is becoming a nightmare. Ukraine's increasing drone range and accuracy has now brought the various roads comprising that land bridge under fire control, meaning that everything from logistics transport to (diminishing) civilian traffic along the route is subject to destruction from above. Orders have now been posted that civilians must get off the road when military traffic approaches so the military vehicles can maneuver when drones appear. The fire control extends from Mariupol all the way to the Kerch Bridge and affects supplies moving as far north as the putative offensive against Ukraine's Fortress Belt. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine is cutting off the Russian Army in southern Ukraine from its main supply route, Putin's cherished “land bridge” along Ukraine’s Azov sea board linking Crimea (via the Kerch Bridge) to southern Ukraine and Russia along the M14 Highway. The Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps struck Russian military targets near Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast (105 kilometers from the frontline) and is interdicting Russian logistics at depths of 160 kilometers along the T-0509 Mariupol-Donetsk City highway. Ukrainian drones operate along the T-0509 95 to 104 kilometers from the front and within Mariupol along the M-14 Mariupol-Berdyansk-Melitopol highway. The T-0509 supplies Russian forces north of Mariupol, supporting the Russian offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt. “The entirety of Ukraine not under our control will become a kill zone for the Russians. This is the logic of technical progress."

After 5 Years, 1000s of Russian Dead, Ukraine Defies Kremlin At Mala Tokmachka

Russia's siege of Ukrainian forces at Mala Tokmachka, in Zaporizhzhia oblast is already the longest of the Russian invasion, certified as such by the government in Kyiv. But it may also be one of the longest in recorded history, surpassing Troy, Carthage, Verdun, Leningrad and others in the annals of warfare. 

The Ukrainians have held out against everything the Russians could throw at them. In the process they have destroyed dozens of Russian armored vehicles and killed thousands of Russian troops. In this, the defense of Mala Tokmachka is emblematic of Ukraine's ability to thwart the Russians, especially now that global recognition of Putin's military failure in Ukraine has become the dominant narrative. JL

Olena Mukhina reports in Euromaidan Press, Myroslav Liskovych reports in Ukrinform:

Ukraine's 118th Mechanized Brigade received the country's Book of Records certification for its defense of Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, recognizing the longest-held front-line position of the war. Ukrainian forces have held it continuously for 1,500 days under assault, artillery, aviation, and drone fire. The front line in the village has barely shifted. Occasionally Russian troops enter the eastern outskirts but are destroyed by drones and cleared out by assault units as operations in this sector have been refined to the point of automation. The largest assault took place on October 20, 2025, when Russia's 71st Motor Rifle Regiment attacked with two motorized rifle companies supported by 26 armored vehicles, including tanks. 21 vehicles were destroyed and dozens of troops killed. Russian losses in repeated attempts to capture Mala Tokmachka exceed two thousand personnel.