"They Will Hang Me:" Cornered, Putin Fears Ending Ukraine War Without Victory

Putin has always been a high stakes gambler. At this point, he must know that his military is incapable of delivering a battlefield victory. But negotiating without having achieved even his minimum possible goal - taking all of Ukraine's Donbas - is probably a death sentence for him. 

So one option is to escalate or, as he has done in the past, to threaten escalation by taking more aggressive and provocative actions like sabotaging European manufacturing sites. The problem he faces is that his military's failure to subdue Ukraine makes it less believable that he can take on NATO successfully. Thus, destabilizing acts and tough talk, remain his best card for now, if only to help stifle  rising Russian public discontent. JL

The Economist reports:

Putin's key objective has always been preserving his own power, and ultimately his life. One concern for the Kremlin is the evaporation of the public’s silent assent for the war. Deep strikes by Ukrainian drones on refineries and e-retailers, along with internet restrictions, have shattered the veneer of normal life. Public trust in television propaganda is falling, and young people post calls to end the war on social media. Mr Putin’s approval rating is sliding. The mood among elites is even more sour. The biggest issue is not so much the economy or the lack of military success but whatever the outcome, nearly five years is a failure. He believes ending the war without achieving even his minimum goal, taking all of Ukraine’s Donbas, would put him physically at risk. (“They will hang me”). All this might make escalation seem attractive.

Russia's 51st Army Donetsk Military HQ Destroyed By Ukraine Cruise Missiles

This story is significant for two reasons. First, that Ukrainian intelligence identified the presence of Russia's 51st Combined Arms Army, the formation that is running the Kremlin's fighting in the Donbas area and may have killed him along with several of his top officers. 

But second, that Ukraine deployed a number of cruise missiles - as many as six by some accounts - to accomplish the mission, and that they were probably a combination of French and US munitions, suggesting that supplies of those weapons from NATO sources are continuing and making an impact. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

The main and reserve Russian command posts in the Donetsk area were struck in a decapitation strike against the commander and senior staff of Russia’s 51st Combined Arms Army, the major Russian formation for the war in eastern Ukraine. Images of debris pointed to French-made SCALP cruise missiles, while a second target had been hit with a new US-made JDAM-LR precision weapon. The strikes came without air raid warnings and detonated within several minutes of each other. Lt. Gen. Sergei Milchakov, commander of the 51st Combined Arms Army, was holding a meeting at the site and was reported killed along with several deputies, though that has not been confirmed.

One-In-Three 'Russian' POWs Captured By Ukraine Now Foreigners

That approximately one-third of soldiers fighting for Russia who are captured as POWs by Ukrainian forces are now citizens of foreign countries in Africa, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East and Latin America confirms reports that the Kremlin is struggling to replace casualties with Russian citizens. 

Many of the foreigners claim to have been tricked or lied to about jobs for which they were recruited, but others appear to have taken a calculated risk to get a Russian residency permit or passport which would enable them to eventually emigrate to western Europe. Whatever the reason, the reported death or injury rates for foreigners surpasses those of native Russians and the foreigners are never accepted for prisoner swaps. JL

Interfax Ukraine reports:

A third of prisoners of war in the Russian military are foreign citizens whom Russia has recruited to fight in the war against Ukraine, stated Andriy Biletsky, commander of the 3rd Army Corps of the Ukrainian Ground Forces. Among the foreigners fighting on the Russian

side are citizens of equatorial Africa, India, Pakistan, the Middle East, and Latin America. "This includes equatorial Africa, India and Pakistan and the Middle East. Latin America is the least represented, mainly Colombia, sometimes Venezuela. "Mostly, they’re either (former) cartel members or, conversely, former police officers." The main reason foreigners join the Russian army is financial incentives, and promises of Russian citizenship.

2,500 Russians Trapped On Kinburn Spit Panicking As Ukraine Tightens Control

The Russian occupying force of 2,500 men deployed on the strategically important Kinburn Spit at the mouth of the Dnipro River as it enters the Black Sea appear trapped as Ukrainian artillery and drone-dropped mines have cut their supply lines. Russian artillery can no longer support their troops effectively as they have been pushed too far away.

This is a significant development not just because isolating or capturing that many troops is notable, but because it may help ease pressure on Ukrainian grain exporting routes. It also demonstrates that the Ukrainian command is identifying and acting against any Russian troop concentration it thinks vulnerable. JL

Olena Mukhina reports in Euromaidan Press:

Ukrainian forces have trapped 2,500 Russian soldiers on the Kinburn Spit, a narrow sandy peninsula about 40 kilometers long, between the Dnipro-Buh Estuary and the Black Sea, which controls the sea exit from Russian and Ukrainian ports. Systematic drone strikes and remote mining have cut Russian supply lines and destroyed almost all of Russia's artillery on the spit. Russian artillery support can now reach the coast of Mykolaiv Oblast only with long-range guns from occupied Kherson Oblast. The Russian force has one way in — a single land route Ukrainian troops keep under fire, from Zaliznyi Port through Heroiske. Intercepts show panic among the Russian units, "they're screaming that they can't do logistics, that they don't want to go in, because it's death. The road is cut, and they have very little ammunition. The spit is a trap for them."

Tech Blinded Itself To the Massive Popular Anti-AI, Data Center Revolt

As previously unimaginable billions confirm more tech leaders and investors in their arrogant, preening self-regard, an even nastier edge emerged: that of utter contempt for the 'little people' who buy and use their products. Tech's embrace of Donald Trump reflected the belief of Silicon Valley's nobles that they were too rich and too important to pay attention to the AI concerns of mere voters and that should the troublesome hoi polloi foolishly attempt to get in their way, Trump would either win them over or work them over. 

But that was almost two years ago, a lifetime in tech. Now, the revolt against data centers and against AI generally has become the most popular campaign theme of this mid-term election cycle, along with the issue of affordability to which it is inextricably tied. Promoting AI's job killing potential as a benefit may have been one of tech's major miscues, but it was only the first. Refusal to support any oversight, siting electricity and water hogging data centers wherever they felt like despite the cost impact and touting their yachts, mansions and botoxed sex doll partners merely added to the rising public frustration. It is worth noting that initial support for Trump was driven by resentment of 'elites'  who were contemptuous of working people. Well guess who now fits that bill to a T? As prices rise, food and fuel are increasingly unaffordable and tech oligarchs appear to be able to buy whatever and whoever they want, the popular anger has found a focus. Google's original "Don't be evil" mantra appears quaint in light of Google Maps immediately switching Lake Ontario to Lake America on one damaged ego's whim. The local government stalling or cancelling of data center construction could be the first economic hurdle which causes AI to slow and challenges its financial projections. And tech's leaders have only their cluelessness to blame. JL

Tim Higgins reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The messier things around AI become, the more out of touch tech leaders appear. The Silicon Valley playbook is failing AI. The rise of AI coincided with a more inward-looking technorati spurning major institutions - government, regulators, media or any group perceived as slowing their innovation. Thanks to social media, many in tech have been talking to each other in an echo chamber of their own creation. They were reaching Sand Hill Road, Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue, not Main Street.  Concerns about AI are becoming part of the fabric of pop culture. Country music star Zach Bryan sings “The robot killed the working man.” It turns out tech guys ranting on X don’t have the same influence. “After the Tylenol crisis, this is the next great case study of what not to do.” 

Russian Command Asks Kremlin For More Time As Fortress Belt Attacks Fail

For months, ostensibly 'knowledgeable' observers have been predicting the imminent demise of Kostiantynivka, and with it, the eventual collapse of Ukraine's Fortress Belt. Yet here we are, one day from September and, whaddya know, it remains in Ukrainian hands. 

In fact, the Russian high command has now reportedly asked the Kremlin for more time - measured in months - as its attempts to take all of Donbas remain unrealistic. JL

Illia Kabachynskyi reports in United 24:

Russia's political leadership expects the entire Donetsk region to be occupied by December 31, 2026, while the military is asking for more time—until the end of March 2027. (But even) “that is unrealistic." For months, Kostiantynivka has remained one of the most difficult sectors of the front. Neighboring Dobropillia and Druzhkivka also face Russian pressure. Kostiantynivka is one of four major cities in the Donetsk region that together form the region’s defensive “fortress belt”: Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk. But despite months of assaults, Kostiantynivka remains under Ukrainian control. Russia did not carry out a single successful mechanized assault.

Ukraine's Military Advantage Lies In Its Ability To Adapt Faster Than Russia

Ukraine's primary military technology advantage is not any particular weapons system or drone, but

its 'adaptive velocity' - the speed with which it learns from experience, finds available components to improve its advantage and then keep learning faster than can the Russians. JL

Ukrinform reports:

Ukraine's main long-term military advantage lies in its ability to quickly adapt to changes on the battlefield, accumulate combat experience, and translate that experience into new solutions. First is adaptive velocity. Eight months after the invasion, a USV struck the Black Sea Fleet. Nothing was military-grade: commercial satellite comms, a jet-ski power pack that one can buy online, and a workshop-built hull. The same drove the FPV revolution - recombining components faster than the enemy adapts.” Ukraine’s information architecture is the second key advantage and its combat data has become a strategic asset. “Ukraine’s enduring advantage is not any single drone, but the ecosystem that learns faster than its adversaries,”