Ukraine Is Moving Towards Ground-Drone Dominant, Human-Free Front Line

Ukraine is now executing a plan which once seemed like science fiction: a front line devoid of human troops, defended and supplied by ground drones which can also attack when ordered. And they can be commanded directly from headquarters as far as 100 kilometers away. 

Ukrainian forces launched almost 17,000 ground drone logistics and medical evacuation missions in June alone. That number is expected to increase, with a concomitant rise in defense and attack missions carried out by ground drones that can hold position at the front for a week without a battery charge. Again, this is not some theoretical exercise: it is a plan being made operational. JL

Tereza Pultarova reports in IEEE Spectrum and Namar Hlamazda reports in Gwara Media:

In April, April, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy signed an order to procure 50,000 UGVs for Ukraine’s military by the end of 2026. In June, Ukrainian troops conducted more than 16,600 logistics and evacuation missions using ground drones. Ukraine’s goal is to transfer 100% of frontline logistics to robotic systems. More than 22,000 ground drones have already been contracted for 2026. But this is “the year of the assault UGV.” Ukrainian tactics combine UGVs with real-time surveillance from aerial drones. Recon data are then used by remote operators who guide UGVs as they stalk, corner, and shoot to kill. Ground robots can be controlled from as far as 100 kilometers away using Starlink, or networked radios. UGVs can lurk in position for up to one week without needing a battery charge. "We can replace many troops with sensors, service robots and UGVs, and will not need as many for logistics. At some point, we could have only robots in the kill zone.”

How Ukraine's Attack Plan Delayed Russia's Southern Offensive 6 Months

One of the reasons for Russia's offensive failure this year turns out to be a two-phase Ukrainian plan which targeted Russian artillery and armored vehicles, effectively curtailing the Russians' ability to launch attacks. 

These Ukrainian strikes were so successful that in most of southern Ukraine, the Kremlin's planned assaults were delayed by as much as six months and when some were finally able to proceed, were weak and ineffective. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

Ukraine's Operation “Auchan” significantly disrupted Russia's 2026 southern offensive in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Starobilsk, halting it for six months through coordinated strikes and intelligence. In three days, Ukrainian Forces hit 949 enemy targets, forcing Russian troops to withdraw substantially from the front and spend months recovering losses. The first phase began in 2025, when Ukrainian drones destroyed more than 800 Russian armored vehicles and artillery pieces over several nights, striking targets located more than 50 kilometers (31 miles) behind the front line. The second phase, in June 2026, focused on Russian artillery resulted in 231 howitzers targets hit, 171 of them destroyed. The operation reflects Ukraine’s asymmetric tactics to offset disadvantages and degrade Russia’s capacity, rather than engage in direct confrontation. This not only destroys equipment, but disrupts future planning, reducing the enemy’s ability to sustain offensives.

AI Is Effecting the Economy But No One Can Explain To What Extent, How, Why

A big part of the problem in evaluating the economic impact of AI goes back to disputes about how to evaluate the economic impact of...computers. 

The issue is that accounting treatments of intangible and tangible assets produce different - and frequently consequential tax effects. This led to contentious and ultimately irreconcilable arguments within accounting and finance about what to do, so they chose the least expensive course and did nothing. We are still paying for that, quite literally, today. There is general agreement that AI is having some, albeit limited, effect on the economy, but it is not yet clear which way this will eventually go. Nor is it evident that any two analysts will ever agree. JL

Ben Casselman reports in the New York Times:

AI might be contributing to U.S. inflation, or be part of the solution to it. It might be responsible for recent productivity growth, or might be playing virtually no role — or the productivity boom might be a mirage. No one is sure what effect the technology is having right now. Researchers can’t even agree on basic questions like how many companies are using A.I. or which workers are most vulnerable to it. Sources often tell contradictory stories. The conflicting signals partly reflect the challenge of detecting economic shifts in real time as government statistics are inherently backward looking and better at measuring broad trends. Part of the problem is that the measures of the economy were developed before personal computers and the internet, let alone A.I. Researchers generally agree A.I.’s effect on the broad economy has been limited so far.

35 Russian Ships Damaged or Destroyed In 4 Days By Ukrainian Sea, Air Drones

The sheer number of Russian ships damaged over the past four days by Ukrainian aerial and sea drones is significant in itself. 

But that many of those were sailing in the 'internal waters' of Russia's Sea of Azov and that many of them were carrying oil or supplies for Crimea, reveals the degree to which that embattled peninsula has become less a military asset and more a logistical sinkhole for the Kremlin. JL

Defense Express reports:

Over the past 96 hours, Russia has lost an entire fleet of tankers, most of which were struck in the Sea of Azov—waters the Russian military considers "internal." Two tankers were struck on July 6; eight tankers, one dry cargo vessel, and one ferry were struck on July 7; five tankers and four dry cargo vessels were struck on July 8; and 12 tankers, one dry cargo vessel, and one tugboat were struck on July 9. A total of 35 vessels were hit. Although no ships were reported sunk, those that caught fire will be difficult to repair and are considered effectively destroyed. Due to destruction of the bridge and damage to onboard equipment, the damaged ships will  be forced to undergo costly, long-term repairs. As Russia's ship repair capacity is insufficient to accommodate all the damaged tankers and dry cargo vessels at the same time, their return to service could take years. 

Working But Out-of-Fuel Russian Tank, Abandoned By Crew, "Adopted" By Ukraine

An amusing tale, but with a serious implication: Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure inside the country are beginning to have operational consequences for the Kremlin's ability to wage war. 

In the modern era, if you don't have fuel, you don't really have an army. JL

Vlad Litnarovych reports in United 24:

Russian troops abandoned a working T-72 tank on the battlefield during a retreat after it simply ran out of fuel. It was captured by Ukraine’s 81st Airmobile Brigade of  7th Rapid Response Corps on July 9.  The Russian crew fled the vehicle after it stalled while they were trying to escape a Ukrainian advance. “This T-72 tank is a trophy. And our guys got it without firing a single shot. All because the fuel gauge in the Russian vehicle hit zero.” After the tank was captured, Ukrainian forces evacuated it, refueled it, and sent it to the brigade’s repair unit. The tank returned to service and is now carrying out combat missions in the Sloviansk direction—this time against its former owners. 

Putin's Elite Air Assault Troops Are Bleeding Out Near Pokrovsk

The 'Guards' designation used to mean that a Soviet or Russian unit was elite, notable for its performance in battle. But as more units are chewed up in fruitless, destructive assaults across drone-dominated gray zones against entrenched Ukrainian defenders, that honor has lost its cache as trained volunteer specialists were killed or wounded and replaced by new recruits who were simply given the same patch. 

The latest unit to suffer is one of Russia's airborne divisions, the 76th, which is being withdrawn from the front around Pokrovsk for 'refitting,' a euphemism for having become 'combat-ineffective,' meaning they have suffered so many losses that they are no longer capable of operating as a functional organization. JL

Owen Warner reports in Medium:

Reports from the Pokrovsk front say Russia's 76th Guards Air Assault Division are pulling back from forward positions, shredded by months of futile, grinding assaults. The 76th and supporting units have suffered so much they are burning through their combat power at an unsustainable rate. Russian officers are rewarded for aggression, not for preserving lives. Commanders were inflating success rates and pushing soldiers forward just for the “propaganda channels” of Moscow. The reality on the ground, thousands of dead soldiers for a few meters. As its manpower shrank, the 76th's forward squads were rotated and raw replacements were brought in. But hastily mobilized soldiers wearing the same patches can't replace trained specialists and have the same combat power. Replacement of these battered troops from the front line is an admission of failure.

Does Big Tech Renting Out Excess Compute Mean Overbuilt AI Capacity?

The growing expressions of concern about the viability of projected investments in AI infrastructure is reflected in stock and bond market pricing. The impact of this spending on free cash flow - and, in some cases, financial soundness - has sophisticated money managers beginning to evaluate their options. 

The Big AI hyperscalers and their Silicon Valley echo chamber have moved beyond the disdainful 'they just don't get it' dismissal of such hesitancy. The response now is more subtle but no less definitive for that. Prior to its IPO, SpaceX revealed that it signed a deal with Anthropic to 'share' (eg, rent out) excess computing capacity. Now, Meta is talking about similar plans. That these companies could even talk about 'excess' was shocking because it implied that their growth projections may no longer be realistic. The next clue will be the announcement of plans for further cap ex spending which, even at $1 trillion, may mean lower AI growth rates are here. JL

Dan Gallagher reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Second quarter reports coming later this month will show another period of blowout AI investments. Capital spending by Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta surged 74% over to hit $168 billion for the 2nd quarter. This is crimping those companies free cash flow and stock prices. There are signs AI’s big spenders are looking to rationalize their investments. SpaceX signed a deal to share its computing capacity with Anthropic. Now Meta may be (doing so). Renting out capacity confirms Meta has overshot its build-out. The question is whether renting out excess capacity is a short-term offset to mega-spending, or a sign such spending is about to recede. That Meta has excess capacity raises eyebrows. Combined cap ex by the four is expected to hit $710 billion this year. But even $1 trillion in 2027 would represent a growth rate of half of what’s expected. Investor euphoria for the AI spending race could be tripped up by the law of very large numbers.