A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Mar 29, 2026

Complex, Multi-Axis Russian Kostiantynivka Assault Repelled With Heavy Losses

It doesn't seem to matter what sector, what time of day or who the defending Ukrainian brigades are: every Russian assault launched in the last two weeks as part of the so-called Spring Offensive has been repelled with heavy losses and destruction of equipment.

Even more so than previously, this does not appear to be the Kremlin's year, not that they would be willing to admit that. JL

Hromadske reports:

The Russians launched two “screened” tanks from Toretsk as a diversion, while three infantry groups attacked simultaneously from different axes. One group advanced near Ivanopillia, the second moved on motorcycles along the Pokrovsk highway, and the third was to approach along the railway. Ukrainian units destroyed one of the armored decoys and quickly eliminated the first two infantry groups using FPV drones and air-dropped munitions. The third group — described as “special forces” — fared the worst.

Kremlin Unable To Protect Crucial Baltic Oil Export Terminals, Hit 4 Times In 5 Days

Ukrainian drones and missiles have hit Russia's crucial - and largest - oil export terminals in the Baltic for four of the last five nights. Significant damage, including fires which have yet to be extinguished, have been confirmed by satellite imagery. 

The Ukrainian attacks not only further weaken Russia's export economic lifeline, but demonstrate that the Kremlin is incapable of protecting crucial energy infrastructure even as far away from the frontline as St Petersburg. JL

New Voice of Ukraine:

Ukrainian forces continued a series of long-range strikes on Russian facilities in the Baltic Sea overnight, marking the fourth attack on the aggressor’s oil infrastructure in five days. Satellite images show a large fire engulfing several oil storage tanks and producing black smoke at the Primorsk terminal and Ust-Luga port in Leningrad oblast. These are Russia’s largest export hubs on the Baltic Sea.  Russian milbloggers acknowledged prolonged Ukrainian strikes demonstrate significant vulnerability in Russian air defenses and sharply criticized Moscow for failing to develop air defenses capable of protecting oil infrastructure.

Russian Zaporizhzhia Armored Attack Destroyed By Ukraine Ronin Drone Unit

Russian forces again attempted an armored assault on Ukrainian positions on the outskirts of Robotyne (a village whose name is recognizable from the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive) in Zaporizhzhia oblast. As with all recent Russian attacks associated with its current failed 'spring offensive,' the Russian mechanized column was decimated with few survivors. 

What may be most notable about this is that the Russians continue to literally throw away troops and armored vehicles in assaults which have consistently proven to be very unlikely to succeed. JL

Dmitro Shumlianskyi reports in Militarnyi:

The Ronin Unmanned Systems Battalion of the 65th Mechanized Brigade, together with neighboring units, repelled a Russian column of over 10 armored vehicles attempting to break through Ukrainian positions. The Russian column, composed of armored personnel carriers and a tank, took part in the assault. The attack was detected and destroyed (before posing a serious threat). The Russian armored column was destroyed on the northern outskirts of of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region. 

Kupiansk Fully Liberated As Ukrainians Crush Last Russian Holdouts

The final battle for Kupiansk resulted in the annihilation of remaining Russian defenders, most of whom were in scattered hideouts in basements and in the city hospital, which had been turned into a bastion. 

The Ukrainian assault plan was methodical and relentless, using drones to identify even the smallest troop concentrations, then calling in bomber drones and artillery. Where survivors remained who refused to surrender, explosives were used to bring down the buildings in which they had taken refuges. The Ukrainian victory was a tactical and strategic triumph which brought to bear all of the Ukrainian military's experience, skill and remorselessness. JL

RFU News reports:

The battle for Kupiansk reached its conclusion as the final strongholds of Russian resistance were concentrated in the hospital, the mechanical plant, and a school.  Drone operators equipped with thermal imaging mapped enemy positions, identifying concentrations of Russian troops. FPV drones targeted basements, and fires were set to flush out entrenched Russian fighters into exposed areas, while Ukrainian troops advanced with explosives to neutralize resistance. The final and most heavily defended position remained the hospital and two apartment buildings, which had been turned into a bastion. The Ukrainians deployed snipers with thermal optics, eliminating any movement detected on upper floors of the buildings. FPV drones struck holdouts. Rather than risk casualties, commanders ordered 100 kilograms of explosives to be used to destroy the structures. 

Mar 28, 2026

"Ukraine Turns War Tide" Says Headline In Trump's Fave Murdoch-Owned Paper

The New York Post newspaper, owned by arch-conservative billionaire and Trump-supporting Rupert Murdoch is increasingly critical of the Russian war effort in Ukraine, publishing articles stating that the Ukrainians have turned the conflict around and have stopped the Russians. 

The message to the Kremlin is that when you've lost the New York Post, you are really losing. JL

Grace Mappes and Kateryna Stepanenko report in The New York Post:

After failing to accomplish its initial three-day objective of toppling Kyiv, Russia has now fought in Ukraine longer than it fought Germany during World War II. Russian offensives across Ukraine have fizzled out. Russia recruited 406,000 people in 2025, according to the Kremlin, and Ukrainian estimates suggest that casualties exceeded 410,000 over the past year. The Russians have neither collapsed Ukrainian defenses nor can they drive on Kyiv. In fact, Russian advances in Ukraine have plateaued since early Spring 2022. It’s Putin who should be pressured to recognize the futility of continuing to spend the blood of Ukrainians and Russians on his futile dreams of conquest.

Power Cut For Half A Million Russians By Ukrainian Drone Strikes

Half a million Russians across a number of areas lost electrical power, with some also losing water and heat after Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russian energy infrastructure in retaliation for ongoing Russian attacks on civilian Ukrainian targets. 

The latest Ukrainian hits underscore the degree to which Russia can no longer adequately defend itself from drone or missile attacks, which also provides evidence that the Kremlin narrative about the success of Russia's war effort is false. JL

Antonia Langford reports in The Telegraph:

Ukraine cut the power for half a million people in Russia after the largest drone attack of the war. Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Russia’s Belgorod region, said that Ukraine’s retaliatory assault had caused “serious damage” to energy infrastructure. 500,000 people across numerous districts suffered power outages, while many were also left without water and heating as temperatures hovered around freezing, adding that it would take several days to repair the facilities.

Ukraine Surges, Takes Berezove, Threatens Uspenivka, As Russians Reel

At this point in Ukraine's counteroffensive, two months since it began with surprise assaults, the success of Ukrainian forces is about both its own success - and - the failure of the reeling Russians to respond effectively. 

The taking of Berezove in Dnipropetrovsk oblast signals that Russian troops have been almost completely driven from that province, a significant achievement. But it is the threat to Uspenivka that may be most telling. That is because the town is the forward headquarters of the Kremlin's 36th Combined Arms Army, one of only a few major military groups charged with leading the war against Ukraine. That the Russians located their HQ there suggests they not only thought it was safe, but that there was no chance it would ever be threatened. That, in fact, the Ukrainians are in position to take it - along with all the staff, supplies, intelligence, electronics and other assets a forward HQ possesses - means that the Russians are struggling to defend what they have taken. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Ukraine's 95th Air Assault Brigade have taken full control of Berezove in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The village is one of the last remaining Russia held in the oblast, a region Moscow has since been nearly entirely pushed out of. 100 Km away, nearly two months after Russia’s battlefield communications collapsed, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the southeast to take advantage of the chaos, Ukrainian forces are closing in on their main objective in the area: the village of Uspenivka, the front-line base of the Russian 36th Combined Arms Army. Led by the 95th Brigade, the battlegroup swept through the no-man’s-land west of Uspenivka, clearing out potentially hundreds of Russian infantry.