38% Of Russian Military Personnel Cost Now For Death Benefits

To put that number in perspective, the amount of the Russian military budget allocated for death benefits is 38%, which is more than the amount paid to living soldiers - 33%. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

More than one-third of the Russia's national military personnel spending on Ukraine funds survivor benefits to relatives of hundreds of thousands of soldiers killed in combat. That’s more than the Kremlin spends on paying soldiers salaries or bonuses to recruit new ones. The cost to pay men to fight in Ukraine, and to pay relatives of soldiers killed in that fighting has skyrocketed, from $39 billion from mid-2023 to mid-2024 to $52 billion in 2025. Russian casualty rates are unlikely to change quickly, because Ukrainian defense tactics aiming to cause maximum casualties have been consistently effective for more than a year, and have a history of improving in effectiveness over time

Russian Strikes Fall As Artillery Never Recovered From Arsenal Explosion A Year Ago

The explosion and fire at one of Russia's largest arsenals of artillery ammunition and components ten months ago has continued to affect the Kremlin military's ability to provide fire support to its troops. 

The explosion, evidently caused by an accident rather than Ukrainian drone strikes or sabotage (that is what the Kremlin is claiming), destroyed not only a significant amount of inventory, but also the capacity to manufacture and deliver more as facilities, roads and railroad tracks were demolished. JL

David Obelcz reports in his substack, Malcontent News:

Last year an accident at the 51st Main Missile and Artillery Arsenal near Barsovo, Russia, 60 kilometers from Moscow, caused a chain reaction that destroyed almost half of the ammunition stored at the 3.5 square kilometer depot. 231.5 million pounds of ammunition were destroyed. Most of the remaining 160,000 tonnes were stored in above-ground Soviet-era sheds, protected only by earthen berms. The surviving ammunition was exposed to repeated shocks and intense heat for two days. In the following weeks, Russian artillery strikes dropped 15%. In the months that followed, the number of Russian artillery strikes in Ukraine has steadily declined. 

As Russia Falters, In 1 Week, Ukraine Makes Greatest Frontline Gains In 2.5 Years

Ukrainian forces have taken full advantage of Russian disarray due to the loss of their Starlink and Telegram communications. In one week, the Ukrainians have taken more ground than they have in since 2023.

Most of the gains are concentrated in the Zaporizhzhia sector, where the Russians have been on the offensive for months. It is too soon to say if these attacks will result in a breakthrough, but they have already given Ukraine a stronger front in that area while decimating the Russian units operating there. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine recaptured Ukraine recaptured 201 square kilometres of territory from Russia in five days last week – its biggest gain in 2.5 years – according to data. Ukraine took advantage of a recent shutdown of Russian forces’ access to Starlink. The recaptured land is concentrated mainly around 80 kilometres east of the city of Zaporizhzhia. The counterattacks pushed Russian forces from over a dozen settlements and disrupted the timeline for an expected Russian Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia offensive. This has given Ukraine the opportunity to reset and harden its defenses in that sector. 

China's AI Vision Balances Fast Innovation With Gov't Rules, Risk Management

China's vision for AI combines a recognition of its economic and technological potential with a firm insistence that it obey government control, especially of information. 

The combination can be conflicting, but so far, it appears to be working as Chinese AI startups and established tech companies are challenging Silicon Valley. But managing that tension is important in order for the Chinese not to fall behind the US while also maintaining government dominance. JL

Meaghan Tobin and Xinyun Wu report in the New York Times:

China has decided A.I. will drive the country’s economic growth in the next decade. At the same time, it will not allow the new technology to disrupt the stability of Chinese society and the Communist Party’s hold over it. The government is pushing Chinese A.I. companies to move fast so China can outpace international rivals to be at the forefront of the technology, while complying with a complex set of rules (which) focus on information control and data protection. Chinese tech companies are required to provide the government with details about their algorithms. China stipulated companies must ensure chatbots are trained on government-approved information. They are also required to create emotional profiles of users. As Chinese officials seek to balance the promise of AI with an aversion to risk, it has become increasingly important to Beijing amid slowing economic growth.

US, Dutch Retired F-16 Pilot Volunteers Contract To Fly For Ukraine

There have been rumors for some time that retired NATO F-16 pilots were volunteering to fly those planes for the Ukrainian air force. Recent reports suggest that this is now reality.

Retired American and Dutch F-16 pilots on six month contracts have reportedly been flying air defense missions, particularly around Kyiv. This development makes great sense as it takes time to train new pilots and existing Ukrainian pilots can have a hard time learning the new plane. The foreign pilots can also share their experience with the Ukrainians. JL

Stefano D'Urso reports in The Aviationist:

New reports claim Ukraine has stood up a new squadron with Ukrainian, U.S. and Dutch pilots flying combat missions in the country’s F-16s. The recently created squadron is playing a central role in the defense of the Kyiv Oblast, and helping Ukrainian pilots harness the F-16’s capabilities. Foreign pilots are hired through temporary contracts for six-month rotations in the country. These pilots are said to fly air defense missions daily using their experience to counter drone and cruise missiles. Supplementing Ukrainian F-16 pilots with experienced foreign pilots would help avoid a reduction of the pilots available until enough Ukrainians are trained. And would helping Ukrainian pilots master the F-16 beyond what they learned during the reduced-length training set-up to provide the F-16 to Ukraine.

Recent Russian Military Setbacks Reflect Broader Strategic Failure

Next week will mark yet another anniversary for Russia's stymied invasion of Ukraine. The past week's Ukrainian counteroffensive - sparked by the cut off of Russian Starlink access - reveals both the weakened state of the Kremlin's forces but also their growing dependence on and vulnerability to pressure from forces it cannot control. 

The broader context has also exposed Moscow's strategic failure: its barbaric attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the depths of winter has failed to break Ukrainian resolve, nor has it led to even the hint of concessions. And European support for Ukraine in the face of the Trump administration's Putin favoritism has only strengthened Europe's determination to push back. Meanwhile, Russian oil exports continue to fall, its shadow fleet is being driven from the seas and its economy is weaker. All in all, 2026 is off to a bleak beginning for the Kremlin. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Since SpaceX shut down Russian access to Starlink in Ukraine, this frontline disruption has had measurable battlefield effects. (At the same time) the systematic multi-winter targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has failed to break Ukraine’s will. Nor has it forced any political or military accommodations from the Ukrainians. At some point in 2026, Putin will have to reckon with the failure of his strategic bombing campaign. (And) Russia's efforts over the past four years to degrade European support for Ukraine has failed. The Europeans have not only reinvigorated their alliance but their defence industry and are pushing back against Russian aggression.

Ukraine's Armor Offensive Scores Major Gains As Russian Drones, Comms Disabled

When Ukrainian forces first became aware of the cutoff for stolen or smuggled Russian Starlink terminals - then compounded by a Kremlin ban on Telegram usage - they believed they had a tactical opportunity to strengthen their positions, particularly in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. 

A week later and this has grown to  become a full fledged counteroffensive which has recaptured hundreds of kilometers of territory while threatening Russia's southern field army with encirclement and possible destruction. That the Ukrainians have been able to optimize this breakthrough so rapidly speaks both to their capabilities for adaptation and exploitation, but also to the weakened state of the Russian military. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Ukrainian forces aren’t just counterattacking in southeastern Ukraine, they’re counterattacking in armored vehicles—a rare event as drones made mechanized assaults suicidal. Ukrainian forces are ranging across the miles-wide “gray zone” as the loss of Starlink and Telegram access has thrown Russian forces into disarray and made the Ukrainian counteroffensive possible. Taking advantage of the collapse in Russian communications, Ukrainian troops are counterattacking all along the 700-mile front. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, they have pushed south of the Vovcha River. Their aim is to cut off and destroy the Russian 36th Field Army which remains powerful but exposed.