Success On "Forgotten" Ukrainian Southern Front Has Aided Recent Donbas Gains

The southern Ukrainian battlefields in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea have recently been treated as secondary sectors, with the Russians having made Donbas its primary focus. 

But Ukrainian successes in the south have undermined the Kremlin's designs on taking the Fortress Belt and all of Donbas. And Ukraine's advances in the south have also weakened Russia's hold on Crimea, by making it a difficult place to live, let alone stand as a logistics center for the war to the north. Those strategic victories have, in fact, made it much harder for the Kremlin to pursue its war by denying Russia any material benefits in those sectors. JL

The World Strategist reports:

The southern front is not neglected because it is unimportant. It is complex, multi-dimensional and hard to boil down into simple headlines. No dramatic sieges of cities, no sweeping attacks by armored columns, no one decisive battle. It is a grinding patient campaign to cut off Russia’s supply lines, isolate its forces and make its position in the south untenable.  That campaign is paying off. Ukraine has taken back hundreds of square kilometers of territory. It has stopped Russian advances toward Zaporizhzhia City. It has severed Russian supply lines across the Dnipro. It has taken out 183 vessels from Russia’s shadow fleet. It has turned Crimea into a “island” with no fuel, no summer camps, and patchy electricity. And it has forced Russia to withdraw from the Kinburn Spit, the westernmost foothold of its occupation.

Ukrainians Proving More Effective At Moving the War Underground

Another element of Ukraine's recent success on the ground has been its ability to hit Russian command and control, as well as logistics centers, which has decapitated their decision-making it more difficult for them to respond to Ukrainian surprise counteroffensives. 

And as part of their preparation for the evolution of warfare, Ukraine has been more effective at moving its operations underground so that they can not be identified or targeted. This has also contributed to Kyiv's focus on reducing casualties. JL

Kateryna Zakharchenko reports in the Kyiv Post:

The battlefield has moved underground, where Ukrainian troops are proving more effective than Russian forces. Technologies and battlefield tactics that were relevant two years ago are now outdated, while new developments can alter combat operations every two or three months. Constant adaptation is also reshaping Ukraine’s air-defense requirements, particularly as Russia develops faster jet-powered attack drones. Despite the growing focus on aerial attacks and military technology, Ukrainian officers warned against shifting attention away from infantry and the front line. “The soldier remains the most important. "

Operation Vivaldi Shows Ukraine's Elite Units' Strengths, Russian Adaptive Inability

One of the elements of the success of Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi counteroffensive has been the evidence of preparation and training evident in the planning and execution of the Ukrainian advance.

A number of specialized units have been deployed for this operation and the level of cooperation between advancing infantry and armor with drone units conducting surveillance, electronic warfare counter-drone strikes, FPV assaults on strongpoints as well as resupply to troops demonstrates a degree of expertise and coordination which appears to be beyond the Russians' ability to adapt, given their sclerotic attachment to traditional means. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The units involved are the 60th mechanized brigade, the 125th heavy mechanized brigade, the battalion tactical group of the 3rd assault brigade, the 3rd reconnaissance and 25th anti-tank battalions of the corps, the 66th mechanized brigade, the 85th tactical group of the 8th SSO regiment, the Artan special drone unit, and the 10th Dozor border detachment. That shows the preparation the Ukrainians have put into this; a range of specialized units, specially prepared for the operation. And it shows how the Ukrainians have been adapting their forces for the land war. The Ukrainians are advancing and not suffering massive casualties. "A large number of enemy officers were destroyed and a significant number of enemy personnel were taken prisoner. Russian tactics do not change. These are just meat assaults.” Ukraine is taking the initiative with new and better ways of fighting, which keep Ukrainian casualties down and ratchet Russian ones up.

To Accelerate Russian Lyman Retreat Ukraine Air Drops Ground Drones Behind Lines

As more information is becoming available about Ukraine's 3rd Corps counteroffensive, called Operation Vivaldi, in the Lyman area, one of the latest revelations is that the 3rd Corps used large aerial drones to drop ground drones behind Russian lines.

This tactic not only caused confusion and panic, but served to divert Russian fire away from advancing Ukrainian infantry and armor. The counteroffensive has now retaken 125 square kms and has forced the Russians to redeploy troops from its primary focus on the Fortress Belt. JL

Olena Mukhina reports in the Euromaidan Press:

Ukraine's 3rd Corps dropped ground robots behind Russian lines from the air, its heavy drones delivered kamikaze unmanned ground vehicles more than 10 kilometers into the Russian rear during the "second season" of Operation Vivaldi, in the Lyman sector, letting Ukrainian troops flank them and clear another 40 square kilometers. In assault operations, drones and ground robots go ahead of the infantry. As the assault groups advanced amid the operation, Ukrainian air defense and electronic warfare threw a protective dome over the battle area, blinding Russian drones so they could not read the operation's design.  Meanwhile, artillery and strike drones hit command posts, communications nodes, logistics, crossings, and reserves, letting Ukrainian units dig in on the ground they had taken. The 3rd Corps and attached units have retaken more than 125 square kilometers, half of it de-occupied outright, and inflicted more than 3,000 casualties on Russian forces. 

Money: Why An AI Slowdown Is Likely Regardless of Safety Concerns

Forget AI-driven extinction for the moment - a big ask, we know - but maybe not the greatest immediate concern. Alot is being written about the threat to humanity from AI, while the fact that those who are pooh-poohing the danger - Jensen Huang, Mark Zuckerberg and, lord have mercy - Donald Trump, suggests that self-interest is playing a larger role than objective analysis.

But the reason that an AI slowdown is increasingly likely is because the numbers underpinning the projections of AI growth have gone from Panglossian to delusional. Among the basic problems now emerging is the fact - yes, fact - that there is not enough copper wire, enough construction workers and enough energy to build all the data centers being proposed. And without the data centers there is not enough 'compute' capacity to generate the back end calculations required for those growth predictions. Add to that another fact, that the big tech companies are now issuing debt at levels never before seen. And the thing about debt is that the issuer is contractually required to pay interest as well as paying it off. Which savvy debt investors are now beginning to question tech's ability to do. So the fundamental issue is less about extinction than about money - always the issue in tech - and that means the financial spigots are about to turn off, perhaps even for Nvidia, which has become circular lender of last resort. JL

Spencer Jakab reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The market reaction to a slowdown by industry leaders for safety reasons was telling. Shares of Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta jumped on an awful day for tech. Worst-hit were companies providing chips, power or data centers. It was an overdue reality check. The physical world has limits. Hyperscalers’ plans were starting to bump up against them. Data centers will reach 12% of total U.S. electricity demand by 2030, the equivalent of 30 and 60 nuclear plants. Public backlash has meant going from tax breaks to opposing data centers. Supplying copper to wire them would lead to a 25% shortfall by 2040. (And) After exhausting their own cash flows, hyperscalers' a borrowing binge is worrying investors. In one year, their share of the leading bond index grew 78%. Making enough profit to justify the biggest infrastructure splurge ever is a tall order. With open source competition rising and token prices falling, investors having doubts. “How is all this going to be monetized?”

Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi Phase 2 Takes Another 40 Square Kilometers

Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi being conducted by the 3rd Corps in the Lyman sector towards Luhansk, has now liberated an additional 40 kilometers from Russian forces. This adds to the 85 sq Kms taken in the first phase of the counteroffensive. 

The operation is ongoing. JL

Chris York reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps said it has liberated a further 40 square kilometers (15.4 square miles) of territory in Donetsk Oblast, as well as retaking several villages during the ongoing Operation Vivaldi offensive. "As promised, I am reporting good news," corps commander Brig. Gen. Andrii Biletskyi said in a statement on Sept. 20. "During the second 'season' of 'Vivaldi,' the 3rd Army Corps reclaimed another 40 square kilometers of Ukrainian land. Shandryholove and Derylove have been liberated. Drobysheve is under full Ukrainian control." 

More Important Than Territory, Ukraine Is Taking the Battlefield Initiative

In Lyman, Kharkiv, Zhaporizhzhia, Pokrovsk and other points along the front Ukrainian forces have taken the initiative, meaning that the Russians are having to respond to their moves rather than, as has been true for much of the war since the invasion, that Ukraine has had to respond to them. 

This means Ukraine can set the time, place and nature of the fighting, which puts the Kremlin at a disadvantage. JL

Wes O'Donnell reports in Medium:

Initiative doesn’t mean attacking constantly, having more troops, or advancing everywhere at once. An army has the initiative when its actions force the opposing commander to change plans. If I attack somewhere and you have to move your reserve there, I’ve influenced your next decision. If I threaten your flank and you have to pause your offensive to protect it, I’ve gained something even if I capture very little territory. If I destroy a salient you spent six months building and force you to redesign the next phase of your campaign, the map may barely change while the operational situation changes significantly. That’s initiative.