Ukraine Is Now Shaping the War. Russia's Strategic Situation Is Worsening

The story that Ukrainian troops are taking ground from the Russians is no longer in question. But the larger narrative is that in 2026, Ukraine has seized the initiative and is forcing the Russians to react to the Ukrainian shaping of the conflict. 

With a larger military and population, the Russians initially drove the Ukrainians to respond, a situation that lasted for three years. And despite the disparities, the Ukrainians handled that subordinate positioning brilliantly. Not only did Russia fail to take its initial objectives, it has been fought to a standstill. But now, something even more momentous appears to be happening: Ukraine is shaping the conflict to its own strategic needs - and the Kremlin seems powerless to change that situation - and despite the withdrawal of US support for Kyiv. Which is bad news for Russia and the US. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The battlefront has seen Russian advances all but stop, with Ukraine liberating parcels of land. This change has been brought about with declining Ukrainian casualties and rising Russian ones— an indicator of initiative change. The land war is resembling more what the Ukrainians want it to be than the Russians. The Ukrainians adjusted more quickly and efficiently to the realities of this battlefield and the Ukrainians are bringing into play more rapidly the better systems to fight within it. They are also tailoring their whole war effort (mid-range strike) to erode Russian combat possibilities. The Ukrainians have the initiative. They are shaping the land war and the ranged war. Russia will now have to adjust or the Russian strategic situation will get worse.

Anthropic Says Software Engineers Will Be Obsolete. But For Now It's Hiring 100s and Paying Over $500K

Despite the increasingly ominous warnings that software engineering jobs face obsolescence, AI firms are still hiring them - and at impressive compensation levels. 

Part of the reason may be that this is an inflection point which underscores the transition: more engineers are needed in order to hasten their professional doom. But job elimination has also been a major AI selling point, so continuing to emphasize it even as more of them are currently needed and may not end soon is part of the hype. The reality seems to be that as with much of what is being claimed about AI, is that nothing is certain. JL

Medium reports and Ankita Garg reports in India Today:

Even as AI-driven job warnings continue, Anthropic's hiring activity paints a different picture. The company currently has 429 open roles in engineering, spanning positions such as Research Engineer, Full-Stack Software Engineer, Performance Engineer, Engineering Manager and more. There are several high-value roles, with salaries ranging between $320,000 and $405,000. Building and improving AI systems still requires deep technical expertise, something companies like Anthropic are actively investing in. What makes this moment interesting — and slightly uneasy — is the gap between what is being said and what is being done. The warnings are about a future where fewer engineers may be needed. The hiring shows that in the present, they are still very much in demand.

'Dozens' of Chechen Akhmats Eliminated In Surprise Ukraine Sumy Attack

Observers of Russia's invasion could be forgiven if they had largely written off the Chechens as social media-happy poseurs who preferred posting to fighting. 

But they continue to emerge as the Kremlin's dirty work specialists: assigned to make sure others do the actual fighting while they loll threateningly behind the lines in relative safety. As the kill zone has expanded, the concept of relative safety has contracted, meaning that, as this latest example of Ukrainian ruthlessness reveals, no place is really safe anymore for Russian military forces. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Dozens of Russian Akhmat unit fighters were eliminated in a special operation conducted in Sumy Oblast. The operation was carried out by fighters of the HUR's Shamanbat unit, Chechen soldiers fighting on Ukraine's side, together with the 104th Territorial Brigade. A former Akhmat soldier received a listening device via FPV drone and installed it in the Akhmat command's meeting room. This allowed Ukrainian operatives to record the conversations of the unit's command staff, enabling strikes on Kadyrovite concentration areas. Akhmat suffered its heaviest losses since the beginning of the invasion as a result of the operation: 41 killed and 87 wounded. Over a hundred more are considered missing in action.

Russia Loses Ground For 1st Time In Years As Ukraine Drones Strike Units Harder

Russia's winter offensive never got off the ground. It's spring summer offensive is generously referred to as 'sputtering.' Generous, because in a growing number of sectors, the Russians are actually losing territory. 

The reasons vary by region, but Russia's chronic supply and reinforcement issues have been exacerbated by increasingly accurate and lethal short, medium and long range drone strikes which have systematically reduced the ability of the Kremlin's formations to actually organize and launch attacks before they are spotted and destroyed by the Ukrainians. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Russia's sputtering offensive suffered losses of territory for two straight months: a loss of 67 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in April after losing 31 kms in March. Ukraine's drones are striking harder and more often across occupied Ukraine and even deep into Russia and it's spring offensive is already faltering. Russian forces still enjoy a manpower and firepower advantage. But Ukraine's intensifying heavy drone strikes are fraying Russian logistics and chipping away at Russian regiments' combat power before they even begin their attacks. Those strikes are eroding the Russians' fighting strength. “We are methodically destroying the key elements of the enemy’s military infrastructure,"

Big Tech Is Trading Its Workforce For AI. They May Regret That Exchange

As layoffs in the tech sector grow - and Big Tech firms attempt to claim it is because of increased efficiency and productivity from AI, those claims are being met with some skepticism. 

Firstly, because questions about how to optimize AI's impact have not been convincingly demonstrated by many if not most organizations, and secondly because many of the layoffs appear driven more by financial and executive compensation effects than by actual AI impact. But a third consideration is that employees enhance the ability of businesses to deploy AI effectively so that getting rid of too many of them too soon could negatively affect optimization. Feeding the narrative that AI is a convenient excuse to lay off human employees may also contribute to the increasing public narrative that AI is not likely to positively affect anyone other than a relatively few tech executives and investors. JL

Dan Gallagher and Asa Fitch report in the Wall Street Journal:

Tech companies are rushing to trade their people for more chips. Some of them might regret the exchange. Dressing up layoffs as visionary moves for the age of AI carries risks. Rampant layoffs hurt morale and create an exit incentive for other employees, especially talented ones with alternatives. For all of AI’s capabilities, people will be needed to figure out business models, deal with customers and make sure AI tools are being deployed and used safely. Smart castaways might establish startups that end up competing with the big tech companies. The layoffs also lend credence to a growing public perception that AI isn’t a panacea but a job killer. That will feed a backlash already constraining AI, as more communities fight against the construction of massive data centers.

Ukraine Took Russia's Best Punch. Now It's Hitting Back. Harder

As the weather warms, Ukraine's military and civilians have, this winter and spring, absorbed the worst Russia could throw at them and have not just survived, but emerged stronger. 

The barbaric attacks on energy and electricity infrastructure in the dead of an historically cold winter did not lead to calls for negotiation. And rather than waiting for another set of Russian offensives, the Ukrainians took the initiative and launched counterattacks which have resulted in Russian forces losing territory. The war is not expected to end soon, but the global narrative about Russia's failure has become the norm and the supposed 'inevitability' of a Russian win is now considered a cruel joke - mostly on the hapless Russian troops who are dying as a result of it. JL

David Ignatius reports in the Washington Post:

At the Kyiv Security Forum last week European defense chiefs shared the assessment that, as one put it, “the Ukrainians have outpaced Russia in spite of being outgunned.” Ukraine currently neutralizes 70% of Russia’s drone attacks and hopes to boost that kill rate to more than 90% by the end of this year. Ukraine maintains its edge with monthly updates of its drone and electronic warfare systems. Drones account for 92% of kills, while just 3% come from artillery. Ukrainian troops held firm against Russia’s assault on the front lines last fall, and its cities survived a terrible, frigid winter despite a Russian blitz on infrastructure. Now spring has arrived: It’s warm again, and the power is still on. Ukraine has taken Russia’s heavy punch without buckling.

Moscow May 9 Parade To Have No Armored Vehicles, Few Troops Due To Losses, Fear Of Ukraine Drone Strike

For the first time in twenty years, Moscow's annual Victory Day parade, which celebrates Russia's part in the defeat of Nazi Germany, will not feature any armored vehicles. 

The reason, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, is 'the current operational situational,' which is a bureaucratic euphemism for devastating losses of such equipment in Ukraine as well as fear that the Ukrainians could embarrass Putin by launching drone attacks on the parade that the Russians might not be able to prevent, given Ukraine's decimation of Russian air defenses. JL

NBC News reports:

Russia's traditional parade marking the 81st anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II this year will take place without tanks, missiles and other military equipment, the Russian Defense Ministry said. It will be the first time in two decades — and in the more than four years of Russia’s war in Ukraine — that no military equipment will rumble through Moscow’s Red Square on May 9, the day Russia celebrates its most important holiday. The ministry statement this week cited the “current operational situation” as a reason for excluding a military equipment convoy, as well as cadets, from the parade.