Putin Saying "War Is Coming To A Close" Reflects Military, Economic Failure

Following his 45 minute armor and missile-less 'victory' parade last week, Russian dictator Putin uttered a curious statement that 'the war is coming to a close.' 

Most experts now believe that reflected not a desire to end the war, but a reflection of military failure and growing economic hardship for ordinary Russians who had supported it - before it began to interfere with their daily lives. The implicit bargain had been that they would not complain as long as they didn't have to feel the effects. The Russian military's inability to protect them from increasingly successful Ukrainian attacks on their infrastructure and life style has put an end to that deal. Inflation is up, gas is rationed, internet access is often closed and the war feels closer than they want. Putin may have no intention of ending it, but he clearly feels the need to suggest that he might, before, that is, he is forced to. JL

Mary Ilyushina reports in the Washington Post:

Vladimir Putin is under pressure not only from stalemate, stagnation and heavy losses on the battlefield but also a battered economy, rising public frustration and setbacks worldwide in Iran, Hungary and Venezuela. The frontline remains stalled, with Russia still failing to achieve Putin’s goal of seizing the entire Donbas region. Putin's “Image of victory” narratives are designed to sell Russians on a peace deal despite high casualties and minimal territorial gains, reflecting contingency planning within the Kremlin’s political bloc. The most immediate risk is losing the passive majority that has tolerated the war — as long as it was kept at a distance — but now feels its strain in daily life.

The Kremlin's "Exaggerated Demands Run Completely Counter To Battlefield Reality"

Let us stipulate that Putin is not an idiot. But like many people whose position and - in his case, survival - depend on a certain degree of cognitive dissonance, he may be subject to persuasion by people, like his military chain of command, who know what he wants to hear. 

He may also believe that if he repeats the big lie often enough, in this case, that Russia is 'winning' in Ukraine, some of his more credulous backers, like Trump, will believe him. But none of that counters the reality expressed by objective and knowledgeable observers, that his forces remain incapable of achieving his military goals in Ukraine. JL 

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Russia's exaggerated ambitions and demands run completely counter to battlefield reality. The slowing rate of Russian advances and the challenging nature of the Ukrainian-held terrain in Donetsk makes it unclear Russia is capable of seizing the territory at all. Strong Ukrainian fortifications, the area’s challenging geography, and Ukrainian counterattacks and mid-range strike campaign that are already inhibiting Russian operations make the prospects for a Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk dim. Russian forces infiltrated Kostyantynivka (the Fortress Belt’s southernmost city) in October 2025 but have failed to make any significant gains over the last six months. Ukraine’s successes accomplished tactical, operational, and strategic effects undermining Putin’s narrative. His thinking appears to be further and further removed from battlefield realities, resulting in the issuance of orders to the Russian military it is not capable of achieving.

Russians Forced To Retreat As Soldiers Survive 12 Minutes In Zaporizhzhia Town

Russian forces were attempting to assault the key town of Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia oblast when Ukrainian drones and artillery inflicted such 'devastating' losses on the Kremlin's troops that the average life expectancy of the attacking soldiers was estimated to be 12 minutes. 

One of Ukraine's most significant achievements so far this year has been the increase in accuracy of its drone forces. AI and fiber optics have given Ukrainian drone units enhanced lethality, which has proven to be insurmountable for the Russians. JL

Olena Mukhina reports in Euromaidan Press:

Russian forces are abandoning their advance on Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia oblast and retreating after the Russians suffered devastating losses during assaults on Ukrainian positions. Fighting for the settlement involved elite Russian units, but the average survival time of a newly mobilized Russian soldier there was around 12 minutes. Russian forces are now using armored vehicles primarily to evacuate wounded personnel, while assault operations are being carried out mostly by small infantry groups. Even those attempts continue to fail. Russian forces continue artillery and FPV drone strikes in an attempt to create the appearance of activity, but there are effectively no Russian troops inside the settlement itself.

Anthropic Has Now Surpassed OpenAI In Valuation and Revenue Run Rate

Fast follower Anthropic has surpassed first-to-market - and arch rival - OpenAI - on two key metrics which suggest that Anthropic may, for now, be emerging as the AI firm to beat. 

In revenue run rate, an annual extrapolation of currently monthly sales, Anthropic is expected to hit $50 billion by next month, whereas OpenAI was at $24 billion a month ago, the last figures available. In terms of investors' valuation of the two companies, Anthropic is now valued at $900 billion, which puts ahead of OpenAI for the first time. While the competition is far from over, Anthropic's focus on coding and business users versus consumers appears to be the crucial differentiator in its favor. JL

Kate Clark reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Anthropic's  revenue-run rate, a figure that forecasts annual revenue based on short-term sales, is on track to reach $50 billon by the end of next month. The run-rate topped $30 billion in April. The company had planned for growth to increase 10-fold this year, but saw 80-fold growth in the first quarter. OpenAI said in late March that its revenue reached $24 billion on an annualized basis. Data suggests Anthropic’s growth continues to accelerate (while) OpenAI’s has begun to plateau. Anthropic has received investment offers in recent months valuing it at more than $900 billion. That would more than double the company’s current valuation and surpass OpenAI’s for the first time. Anthropic caught up by focusing on developing a handful of products rather than trying to dominate every corner of the market, and its success with coding users and businesses has reset the AI race on its terms.

Standard 10: Each Ukraine Drone Crew Expected To Kill 10 Russians Per Month

The mathematical and managerial precision of this formula is breathtaking. If each Ukrainian drone crew kills 10 Russian soldiers per month (their current average being 3 per month), that will eliminate twice as many soldiers as the Kremlin is able to mobilize. The current record is 30.6 Russians confirmed hit, held by the Madyar's Birds unit of the 414th Brigade

This would require Ukraine's attack drone crews to make one successful strike every two or three days, which is considered realistic. It is, in the bloodless language of business, a target efficiency benchmark. JL

Yevhen Buderatskyi reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Robert "Magyar" Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, has proposed a formula he calls Standard 10 for UAV crews. The Standard 10 is a target efficiency benchmark under which each attack UAV crew in Ukraine would aim to kill 10 Russian soldiers per month. The current average of a single attack UAV crew is three Russian soldiers killed per month. There is significant room for improvement. 22.3 Russian soldiers have been killed per crew in the Phoenix unit from Ukraine's State Border Guard Service, while the record stands at 30.6 in the Magyar's Birds unit – Ukraine's 414th Brigade. "If most crews reach 10 confirmed hits per month, we will be killing twice as many as Russia is able to mobilise." The formula requires each crew to maintain a pace of one successful strike every two to three days, which he considers realistic.

Ukrainian Ground Drones Assault, Eliminate Russian Kostiantynivka Infiltrators

Ukrainian ground drones, each with a distinctly separate mission, decoyed Russian infiltrators in Kostiantynivka, then sealed the Russians base with an explosion while the third delivered anti-tank mines to Ukrainian infantry who dropped them on the Russians when they refused to surrender and opened fire. JL

Taras Safronov reports in Militarnyi:

Ukrainian ground drones carrying explosives helped eliminate Russian soldiers who infiltrated Kostyantynivka. The group entered an abandoned apartment block (but) their movements were tracked by reconnaissance drones.  Ukrainian forces near the building did not have sufficient manpower to assault it. The command deployed three ground drones, each assigned a separate role. The first was used as a decoy to draw Russian fire. The second, carrying 300 kilograms of explosives, drove directly inside and sealed it with a blast. The third drone delivered anti-tank mines to Ukrainian troops, which were dropped on the Russian position. “They were offered surrender, but they returned fire, so there was no other option but to eliminate them.”

For Russian Troops Inside the Kill Zone, Life Has Gotten Shorter

Russian casualties have risen and many more are being taken prisoner as Ukrainian forces have extended the kill zone along the front. 

The result is that life expectancy for Russian soldiers has dropped. While some Russians reportedly believe this is a deliberate tactic to purge society of its least productive, a more likely - and cynical - explanation may be that the Kremlin wants to keep up the appearance of a war even as any hope of military victory has faltered, by keeping pressure on Ukraine with attacks they know will fail by soldiers whose lives mean nothing to the Russian leadership. JL

Matthew Luxmoore reports in the Wall Street Journal:

An ex-convict missing part of his right arm and two titanium plates in his head was at the tip of Russia’s spear, trying to pierce Ukraine’s defenses in the kind of infantry assault that is yielding meager gains and heavy losses for Russian troops. "Much of the land gained via these tactics becomes a gray zone they do not fully control.” Losses are so heavy that many in the Russian army think the war is a deliberate campaign to purge society of those on its lowest rungs, culling the downtrodden, the homeless, and the prison population. “The approach is yielding diminishing gains." Ukrainian soldiers are baffled by the number of Russians pressing forward under fire as their drones have become more precise and deadly. A year ago they killed an average of 20 Russians a day. Now, that number is 50 to 60.