Russia's Spring Offensive: "Zero Tactically Significant Gains," Has Now Lost Ground

Russia's Spring Summer offensive, which began March 17, has, according to geolocated analysis, not only made 'zero tactically significant gains, but has actually lost ground. 

This is counter to the claims of the Russian high command which claims to have gained 1700 square kilometers and several cities, all of which have been contradicted by independent observers. Fortunately, western media are no longer as gullible as they once were, nor are they as intimidated by the Trump administration, so are less willing to accept and publish the Russian accounts and more likely to give deserved credence to the Ukrainians. JL

Yuri Zoria reports:

Russia's Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive has produced zero tactically significant gains since it launched no later than 17 March, and that Russian forces have lost ground since 1 March. Russia's Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov has claimed Russian forces had taken over 1,700 km² and 80 settlements across Ukraine since early 2026 — Luhansk Oblast among them — with a further 700 km² and 34 settlements falling in March and April alone. Heavy casualties have forced Russia to reduce its operational tempo in several sectors.  Russia's troop generation is being squeezed from both ends — recruitment falling while casualties climb — eroding the viability of its mass-assault approach

At Pokrovsk, Ukraine's Elite Brazil Volunteers' Surprise Attack Shocks Russians

Ukrainian forces continue to launch surprise counterattacks along the front to disrupt the Russians' plans, which has already caused the Kremlin to redeploy forces. 

On the Pokrovsk front, where the fighting remains among the heaviest of the war, a surprise Ukrainian counterattack led by volunteers from Brazil, whose performance has quickly underscored their elite status, shocked Russian troops at the crucial settlement of Hryshyne, decimating Russian units and pushing them back. The integration of the Brazilians into the Ukrainian force stands in contrast with the Russians use of other nationalities like the North Koreans, Africans from various countries and Nepalis, who have often been tricked or forced into the military and then slaughtered. JL

RFU News reports:

At Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian command unexpectedly deployed Brazilian volunteers to push the Russians back in an intense counterattack. To counter Russian attempts near Hryshyne, Ukraine's Brazilian volunteer soldiers were deployed to support Ukrainian forces, with the task of clearing positions and reinforcing the counteroffensive momentum. Geolocated footage captured by a drone shows how Brazilian soldiers are clearing houses inside the settlement, using explosives to blow the entrance of the buildings and sustained small arms fire to suppress Russian positions. The Brazilians operated in small groups to reduce exposure and avoid Russian drone strikes. Their skill disrupted Russian plans, leaving attacking enemy forces in shock. 

Anthropic's Multi-Billion Dollar Deal With Amazon Challenges OpenAI

Anthropic has signed a series of strategic alliances with Amazon, Google and Broadcom, which gives the AI company access to computing power while providing the other firms greater ability to use its AI. 

But the Amazon deal, which came after the other two, also begins to shape global AI alliances that will see OpenAI-Microsoft and the Chinese AI companies facing off against each other and against the Anthropic group as a potential harbinger of future competitive strength. The relative success of the various AI models will be determined by the utility of the AI as well as the financial, computing and marketing power of each. This latest alliance gives Anthropic, which was started by executives who departed OpenAI, an ability to challenge OpenAI, because of the growing success of its model.JL

Sean McClain and Kate Clark report in the Wall Street Journal:

Amazon will invest an additional $5 billion in Anthropic, part of a broadening partnership that will see the two tech companies collaborate more closely. Amazon's total investment could be as high as $25 billion. Anthropic, which has been hampered by a shortage of the computing power needed to serve its popular AI models, agreed to purchase $100 billion of Amazon’s cloud services. Anthropic said it would make use of 5 gigawatts’ worth of Amazon’s AI chips. Anthropic also expanded its partnership with Google and Broadcom, adding multiple gigawatts of capacity on their TPU chips. Recent months have seen rapid growth of the company’s coding tool Claude Code. Anthropic said this month that its revenue run-rate had reached $30 billion, far exceeding its earlier expectations for the year. 

For 2 Days In A Row, Russia Attacked Chasiv Yar (Again), And Were Beaten Back

Chasiv Yar, again? Yes, the Russians are again attacking Ukrainian positions at Chasiv Yar because it is on the way to Ukraine's fortress belt cities further west. 

But the Russians are being beaten back - as they have been elsewhere along the front - by a combination of Ukraine's drones, artillery and infantry. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Two days in a row, the Russian 70th Motor Rifle Division attacked Ukrainian positions at Chasiv Yar. Two days in a row, the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade fought back with drones, artillery and infantry. Ukrainian defenders destroyed enemy armored vehicles, transport, and troops even at the approaches to the positions. A similar breakthrough attempt was made by the Russians on April 18. They involved five armored combat vehicles, a tank, as well as motorcycles and ATVs for rapid advancement. However, thanks to the coordinated work of intelligence, drones, artillery, and infantry, the attack was thwarted. The Russians are trying to act in waves, combining equipment and light mobile groups, but is suffering huge losses.

New Ukraine-UK AI Hub Uses Battle Data To Predict, Disrupt Russian Moves

Ukraine, in partnership with the UK, has created an AI war center, which is designed to predict, identify and disrupt Russian tactics and movements. 

The concept is to use Ukraine's vast store of battlefield data to anticipate and then shape Russian options so that Ukraine has an ability to force them to make decisions which give Ukraine the advantage. This will not surprise corporate users of AI, whose marketing or financial strategies may be similarly created, but this will be a first war-time application. The intention is to optimize opportunities and reduce casualties while never letting the Russians have a moment's peace. JL

Olena Mukhina reports:

Ukraine, backed by the UK, is launching a Defense AI Center. At the core of the concept is that in modern conflict, decisive advantage is determined not by the volume of resources, but by the speed of decision-making. Accordingly, “A1” is focused on the practical battlefield application of AI technologies. Processing large-scale battlefield data, the objective is to transform raw information into actionable intelligence: forecasting enemy behavior, modeling possible scenarios, and generating response options. A second priority is the development of autonomous  drones and ground robotic systems which operate without GPS access and under conditions of intense electronic warfare while maintaining functionality

Russian Intel Being Shaped By Ukraine's Degrading of EW, Targeting Ability

Like watching two computers playing chess against each other, Ukraine and Russia have been using their technological capabilities to gain battlefield advantage. But the one evidently emerging with an advantage is Ukraine. 

Ukraine's systematic targeting of Russian radar, air defense and other electronic warfare assets is now giving it the ability to force the Russians to make choices which are more beneficial to the Ukrainians. This has been accomplished by the early interdiction of logistics, troop movements and other operations that are slowing Russia's ability to plan. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina

The operational picture displays a slowdown in Russian gains. Russian forces captured just 133 square kilometres in March 2026 — the lowest monthly total since June 2024. The latest figures suggest deeper Ukrainian drone operations, increased attacks on the Russians, improved defensive preparations, and the diversion of Russian military attention to southern Ukraine is imposing costs on Russia’s spring offensive tempo. On the Kharkiv axis, Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range campaign against Russian radar systems. This was part of the Ukrainian campaign to degrade Russian early warning and targeting capabilities. This reflects a maturation of Ukrainian operations. Ukraine is shaping the sensor and intelligence architecture that supports Russian air defence, artillery and aviation.

Russian Refineries Struck, Burned By Ukraine After US Lifts Oil Sanctions

Immediately after the US again relaxed oil sanctions on Russia, a massive Ukrainian drone attack struck several Russian oil refineries from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea, damaging them and leaving some still burning. The US government is desperate to reduce rising gas prices as its war on Iran continues despite repeatedly failed ceasefires. 

Ukraine now has the capacity to do this without US help or permission as it is developing more of its own weapons. It has been clear that it will no longer quietly accept actions which hurt Ukraine. JL

Ivana Kottasova reports in CNN:

Ukraine  attacked two Russian refineries and other key oil targets overnight Saturday, just hours after the US granted Moscow another waiver on the sale of its sanctioned oil. Kyiv’s ‌drone forces commander Robert “Madyar” Brovdi said Ukraine had struck the Novokuybyshevsk and Syzran oil refineries in Russia’s Samara region, the Tikhoretsk oil terminal in the Krasnodar region, and the Baltic Sea port of Vysotsk, as well as an oil depot in Sevastopol, in occupied Crimea. The Krasnodar region Emergency Response Headquarters said a fire had broken out at the oil depot in Tikhoretsk, and were trying to bring it under control. The governor of the Leningrad region where the Vysotsk port is located, said a drone attack had caused a fire at the port