Data Reveal Putin Is Failing In Ukraine

Putin's intractable negotiating position with the US and Ukraine is based on a bluff and a lie: the bluff is that his faltering forces will 'inevitably' overcome the Ukrainian defenses. The lie is that he will be satisfied with anything less than Ukrainian annihilation. 

The reality is that data reveal early to mid 2025 was Russia's high water mark in Ukraine. Since then, his depleted forces have not only failed to gain any ground of significance, but are now giving up territory to advancing Ukrainian troops. The only question is how long Putin can keep this up before China and North Korea, the suppliers on whom he depends, force him to stop wasting their resources. JL

Frederick and Kimberly Kagan report in the Washington Post:

Since 2022, Russia has seized only 1.5% more Ukrainian land while suffering over 1 million casualties: it has needed 3.5 years to seize 9,318 square kilometers, an area smaller than Los Angeles. Ukraine's forces have not only held Russian advances to a slow crawl, they have begun to push Russian forces back in local counterattacks since last autumn. Ukraine has also embarked on a long-range strike campaign, using both drones and a new domestically produced cruise missile. They are beginning to deploy midrange weapons to disrupt Russian attacks before they reach the line of contact. And they have been able to take advantage of Russian overextensions and missteps to retake ground. Military leaders we spoke to during a recent trip to Ukraine are increasingly confident they can continue to keep the Russians at bay. The Russian negotiating position is based on a bluff and a lie.

Ukrainian Forces Show First Net Gain In Land Retaken Since 2023

Not only are Ukrainian forces advancing, but they have attained a net gain in territory - eg, subtracting Russian gains from Ukrainian, the result is a net gain for the Ukrainians. 

The significance is less in the total amount of territory than in the fact that the Russians no longer appear capable of major strategic breakthroughs. JL

The Kyiv Post reports:

Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost during the last two weeks of February 2026, marking the first net territorial gains since Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive in 2023. Ukrainian forces achieved a net gain of nearly 33 square kilometers between Feb. 14 and Feb. 20, followed by another 57 square kilometers between Feb. 21 and Feb. 27.

In 1 year, Ukraine's $880 MM Drone Line Has Made the Front A Russian Death Trap

A conceptual talking point has become a military reality. Every third Russian soldier now faces the possibility of a drone attack. 30,000 a month become casualties, with Ukraine's goal being to raise that to 50,000. 

This is what executing military strategy looks like. And apparently the US military in the Middle East is now asking for Ukraine's assistance. JL

Olena Mukhina reports in Euromaidan Press:

A year ago, Ukraine launched the "Drone Line" to scale up its UAV units. The initiative allocated $880 million allowing Ukraine to acquire FPV drones, ISR systems, and unmanned aerial bombers on a large scale. Now, the project operates more than 1,000 drone crews who systematically strike Russian targets related to its war. In 2025, Ukraine carried out 371 strikes on Russian territory, inflicting $13 billion in losses on Russia’s oil and gas sector. The project’s goal creates zones where Russian troops cannot move without taking losses, as Ukrainian units detect and destroy targets before they approach Ukrainian positions. At the start of 2026, every third Russian soldier on the front faced UAV attacks.

Anthropic's Claude AI Has Been Central To US Attack On Iran Despite Pentagon "Ban"

The harsh reality for the Pentagon and for a White House attempting to bend the world to its will is that Anthropic has developed a superior product already deeply intertwined with the US military and security services' needs and uses. Replacing it may be possible, but not soon - and certainly not quickly enough for current operations. That probably explains some of the Administration's harsh urgency. 

But as in so many other realms, once the order to attack was given, necessity took priority over theory. Anthropic has already proven its worth. Whether it will ever really be 'banned' is hard to know, but unlikely, except as a piece of political rhetoric. JL

Anna Zhadan reports in Cyber News, Marcus Weisgerber and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Within hours of declaring that the federal government will end its use of artificial-intelligence tools made by tech company Anthropic, President Trump launched a major air attack in Iran with the help of those very same tools. Commands around the world, including U.S. Central Command in the Middle East, use Anthropic’s Claude AI tool, people familiar with the matter confirmed. Centcom declined to comment about specific systems being used in its ongoing operation against Iran. Claude’s use in high-profile missions, such as the Iran attack and the U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, shows why the administration said it would take six months to phase out the technology

At Pokrovsk, Frostbitten Russian Soldiers Surrender To Ukrainian Drone

Hungry, frostbitten and feeling abandoned, a unit of Russian soldiers at Pokrovsk surrendered to a Ukrainian drone after watching their comrades who continued fighting 'mown down like grass.' 

Logistics shortages are contributing to Russian morale problems all along the front line. JL

Anzhelika Kalchenko reports in Militarnyi:

Russian soldiers surrendered to a drone on the Pokrovsk front. Their command tasked them with reaching a certain point and waiting for further orders, (but) they were left without communication or support. Due to difficult weather and lack of adequate supplies, some suffered frostbite. After their shelters were discovered, a Ukrainian drone targeted their position, forcing them to leave their hiding place. Through a loudspeaker from the UAV, the invaders were guaranteed their lives would be spared if they surrendered. After a brief hesitation, they agreed. Their unit had suffered significant losses. Most went to war 'to make money' or obtain early release from prison. Two admitted they were former convicts. "The guys were mown down like grass. I decided it was better to be taken alive." 

Ukraine Strikes Russian Ships, Oil Terminals 440 Km East At 'Safe' Novorossiysk

Over three years ago, after Ukrainian attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet's headquarters and major port at Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula, the Kremlin moved what remained of the fleet to what it believed was a safe anchorage at Novorossiysk, almost 500 kilometers further east.

Not anymore. With the broader range of new of Ukrainian drones and missiles, Novorossiysk is now a target, as Ukraine proved two nights ago, striking three ships, anti-aircraft sysems and oil facilities. The attack caused fires, explosions and significant damage. JL

 
Ukrinform reports:

On the night of March 2, Ukraine  hit the sea minesweeper Valentin Pikul. The anti-submarine ships Yeysk and Kasimov also suffered serious damage.” Three Russian sailors were killed and 14 others were wounded. During the attack, a 30N6E2 fire-control radar of the S-300PMU-2 Favorit system, a Pantsir-S2 missile-and-gun air defense system, and six of seven oil-loading standers at the Sheskharis oil terminal were also hit. A fire at the port lasted throughout the night. “Ukrainian forces are systematically reaching the enemy in ports, at bases, and deep in the rear. There are no ‘safe zones’ for Russian military facilities."

How Kharkiv, Ukraine's Air Warning, Defense Saves Lives From Drones, Missiles

Ukraine's increasingly sophisticated air defense and warning system tracks the launch of drones and missiles, helping activate anti-air weapons systems and triggering sirens that save lives by moving people to seek shelter. 

The system described in this article is in Kharkiv and is considered one of the best in Ukraine, but other cities have or are building similar set-ups. And it is these systems - and the experience Ukraine has had with Russian bombardment - that is now being offered by Ukraine to Middle Eastern countries facing Iranian drones and missiles. JL

Cassandra Vinograd and Oleksandr Chubko report in the New York Times:

On most nights Russian forces target cities across Ukraine, threatening civilians and infrastructure. At a secret facility deep below ground, Ukrainian teams of civilian specialists at Kharkiv's emergency-response center are watching, ready to save countless lives. If Kharkiv is the target, they act even before the military’s air defenses engage, switching on citywide sirens to warn residents to take cover. The highly secured center is staffed 24/7 with 12-hour shifts. The chief specialist’s workstation has two mouses. One performs normal tasks. The other activates the city’s 500 air-raid sirens. A radar map has a blue circle drawn around the city. A drone entering the circle can reach the city in seven or eight minutes, so when one crosses, the specialist immediately activates the sirens. There is no waiting for ballistic missiles. Sirens are activated as soon as a launch is detected.