A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 23, 2025

Russia's Largest Moscow Ammunition Storage Base Detonates In Massive Explosion

The nature of the explosions suggests that solid propellant missiles as well as rockets and other munitions were detonated by what is assumed to be a Ukrainian drone attack or sabotage mission. 

This is part of Ukraine's strategic effort to degrade Russian military capabilities behind the front line by eliminating ammunition, fuel and other critical resources. JL

Defense Express reports:

Russia's 51st GRAU (Main Missile and Artillery Directorate) arsenal, just 60 kilometers from Moscow, a major ammunition storage base, had 45 storage facilities and 30 ammunition storage sites. The design capacity is up to 264,000 tons of various ammunition. It is unknown how many were present at the time of the attack. New videos show ongoing detonations, while Russian reports noted powerful explosions. Given the nature of the explosion, it likely involved the detonation of solid-propellant missiles, including anti-aircraft and/or ballistic missiles, as well as rockets for multiple launch rockets. It was protected by the most heavily concentrated air defense system in Russia

More Russians Surrendering As Weather Warms, Attacks Increase

As the weather in Ukraine warms, the intensity and frequency of Russian attacks has increased - but not the success ratio. And Russian casualties have grown to such a degree that 2025 is likely to be their most deadly year since the invasion.

As a result, more Russian troops are surrendering whenever they can do so without being shot by their own Stalinist blocking units. JL

Stepan Haftko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukrainian fighters from the 2nd Battalion of the 15th Kara Dah Brigade of the National Guard have captured a Russian infantry group that was trying to gain a foothold in the area of responsibility of the Ukrainian unit on the Kupiansk front. The Russian group had been spotted in advance with the help of drones. On 21 April, Ukrainian paratroopers captured nine Russian servicemen on the Kursk front

Ukraine Pokrovsk Slaughter Killed Two-Thirds Kremlin Motorbike Troops "In Minutes"

As more is learned about Russia's now infamous 150-man motorcycle assault at Pokrovsk, the scale of the slaughter becomes more horrific.

The Russians thought 150 infantry mounted on motorcycles could maneuver around dragon's teeth anti-tank barriers and barbed wire while the light weight of the cycles would not trigger anti-tank mines. The problem was that Ukrainian drones spotted the motorcyclists before they even began their attack, leading to two-thirds being killed within minutes. That compounded the slaughter because Russian commanders, unaware due to the then destroyed radio comms, that the attack had failed, followed the plan and sent in a battalion of BMP infantry fighting vehicles loaded with troops to consolidate what they thought were the motorcyclists' gains. Ukrainian artillery, anti-tank rocketers and drones were waiting and destroyed an unimaginable 21 of the BMPs and their soldiers. Estimates are that one-third of Russian attackers survived the day. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Russian maneuverability was limited by Ukrainian defenses across Russian lines of attack turned into kill zones. This prolonged their exposure to Ukrainian FPV drones and artillery. The 150 infantry mounted on motorcycles with narrow frames and light weight allowed them to avoid triggering anti-tank mines. (But) Ukrainian drones spotted the Russian motorcyclists as they prepared to assault, so Ukraine swarmed kamikaze drones, killing two-thirds of the riders within minutes, leading to a collapse of communication which prevented reporting the failed assault. Believing it had succeeded, the Russians sent a battalion of BMPs to reinforce the now non-existent attackers. Defenders zeroed in on the road resulted in the loss of 21 Russian BMPs, 96 motorcycles and 240 soldiers killed and wounded. Only a third survived the assault.

Tariff Uncertainty, the Bond Market, Interest Rates Stifle VCs, Startups

As if the economic uncertainty sparked by new tariffs wasn't tough enough on IPOs, startups and venture investing, the specter of that tariff-related volatility now causing a rise in interest rates and a bond market sell-off - typically a death-knell for VCs - is now further stifling what had been expected to be a great year for tech. 

The relatively paltry amount raised by venture funds in the first quarter of 2025 could make this year the weakest in over a decade. JL

Beatrice Nolan reports in Fortune and AI Based on The Information reports:

Tariffs have dampened Silicon Valley's venture capital comeback in 2025. Tariff uncertainty is leaving VC investors hesitant as tech companies postpone IPOs. Rising interest rates and a turbulent bond market also negatively impact venture capital. The bond market, influenced by inflation and the tariffs, saw yields climb as interest rates climb, making fixed-income investments more appealing, reducing the capital available for VCs. Rising interest rates and bond market volatility push investors  towards safer assets. This makes it more difficult for startups to secure funding and for venture capital firms to make new investments. Just $10 billion was raised across 87 VC funds, setting the stage for what could become the weakest fundraising year in over a decade.

Apr 22, 2025

10 Seconds To Act: How Ukraine Air Defense Shoots Down Russian Missiles

The speed at which cruise and ballistic missiles fly leave Patriot air defense crews with mere seconds to respond. 

Their training and experience - many were computer specialists before the war - gives them the skill to anticipate, trusting their instincts and their muscle memory. 10 seconds is all they have between a threat warning and engagement. JL

Hromadske reports:

The 96th Kyiv Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade shields the city. After training, it took a year of combat shifts to feel confident as Patriot operators. “A real missile flies faster than the virtual one on a simulator. In combat, you have far less time to decide and fire. As soon as the alert goes off, services tell us the threat: Shaheds, cruise missiles, or ballistic missiles. We turn on the radar, detect targets in our sector, and launch the systems.The window between the Patriot team receiving an threat signal and being ready to engage is no more than 10 seconds: activate the radar, switch to ballistic search mode, locate the target, and destroy it. "When we down a target, the relief is indescribable.” 

Surrounded Ukraine Soldiers Hold Kharkiv Oblast Position For 50 Days

Surrounded Ukrainian soldiers of the 43rd Mechanized Brigade held  their position in a damaged garage in Kharkiv oblast for 50 days.

They captured a Russian radio so were able to listen in and figure out where attacks on their position were coming from. They baked rudimentary bread at night when they ran out of food. They were eventually evacuated by stealth, in an operation that took three days. JL

Volodymyr B reports in Militarnyi:

Soldiers of the 43rd Mechanized Brigade held their ground in a garage with a 60 mm mortar shell sticking out of the ceiling for 50 days under continuous assault. Russians approached their positions at 5-6 meters. A mirror installed in front of the position provided a view in three directions (so they could) spot and kill Russian infantrymen who got too close. The Ukrainians intercepted Russians forcing wounded forced into battle, refused to evacuate them, promising to honor them as “heroes of Russia” for their deaths, and threatening to kill the soldiers' relatives if they didnt fight. When the Ukrainian soldiers ran out of bread, they baked by candlelight, using flour and oil. It took three days to finally evacuate the Ukrainians. 

Russian Casualties Escalating To Make 2025 Its Deadliest Year of War

Russian casualties are rising to such an extent that this year is on track to be the deadliest of the war so far.

The rise in dead and wounded is largely due to increasingly desperate Russian attacks without adequate armor or artillery in the face of increasingly devastating Ukrainian drone and artillery effectiveness. JL

Stavros Atlamazoglou reports in The National Interest:

Russian forces have taken almost 150,000 casualties in Ukraine in less than four months of combat in 2025, putting 2025 on track to be the deadliest year of the war so far, even as the fighting has slowed in some areas. Despite a relatively static frontline, reported Russian casualties to remain significantly higher in 2025 so far than compared to spring 2024. Western sources have largely corroborated Kyiv's estimates. “The rise in casualty rates has continued into April 2025, and is reflective of increased Russian attacks along the frontline.”