Ukraine's New Corps Structure Has Been Crucial To Beating the Russians This Winter

Up to a year ago, the Ukrainian military's ground forces were organized along brigade lines. While they demonstrated considerable success, the lack of an intermediate command layer to help coordinate attacks and defense too often led to short term decision-making which responded to the moment, not the larger situation. This frequently resulted in suboptimal performance. 

The new corps structure gives experienced commanders the ability to see a broader picture, deploy more resources faster - and at a strategic level - to produce better results. The notable successes at Dobropillia north of Pokrovsk and at Kupiansk near Kharkiv are both credited to the advent of corps level leadership. JL

Francis Farrell reports in the Kyiv Independent:

As of early 2026, 18 corps have been formed within Ukraine's land forces to bring brigades together, expanding separate artillery and drone units of each corps to brigade and regiment level, crucial to a coherent, coordinated defense. Large well-resourced brigades have been placed to expand and take over a corps, bringing experienced commanders, technology, human capital, and best practices, and spreading them out over the corps level to raise the standard of less capable brigades, and coordinate a better defense of their sector as a whole. Success in clearing Dobropillia showed corps command proved a more effective system, even when deployed hastily. And the potential for a corps to plan and execute offensive operations was displayed by the successful counterattack and clearing of Kupiansk

Ukraine Risky Counterattack In Zaporizhzhia Paying Off More Than Expected

Elon Musk gave Ukraine a big opportunity and the Ukrainians have seized, despite the risk it entailed. 

With Russian troops in two southern oblasts disrupted and disorganized by the loss of illegal Starlinks, Ukraine redeployed units from Pokrovsk and sent them south. The result has been significant gains - including the crossing of two rivers which now strengthen Ukrainian lines - while the losses of some settlements north of Pokrovsk have proven unimportant. This is another smart strategic decision by the Ukrainians, who continue to out-think the Russians in this war. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Ukrainian forces are advancing in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Kyiv's choice to pay for counterattacks around Huliaipole by handing the Russians a few villages north of Pokrovsk makes perfect sense. The tradeoff was only possible because, two weeks ago, Elon Musk bricked Russia's smuggled and stolen Starlink terminals, grounding Russian drones and blinding Russian field headquarters. Ukraine's decision has paid off; its forces have cross two key terrain features in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts—the Haichur and Vovcha Rivers—are pushing more armored vehicles into the gray zone between areas of Ukrainian and Russian control. The Russians are off-balance and losing whatever control they recently had over hundreds of square kilometers of the southeast. 

The Age of Wild AI Spending Ends, As Clients Demand Financial Returns, Assurances

Well, whaddya know? Corporate AI FOMO had a shelf life. 

Big tech companies, AI startups, Wall Street analysts and venture investors are all reporting that sales of AI models, apps and software are harder and slower in 2026 than they were last year as growing questions are raised about both operating impact on performance as well as financial returns for businesses being asked to make significant investments in AI. Tech companies already facing challenges about rosy 'vibes' that were unaccompanied by reliably, detailed projections and which may be rendered irrelevant by new developments in the field. While this is consistent with previous tech introductions, it is reportedly coming as something of a shock to the AI industry which had become accustomed to unquestioning customers agreeing to any deal proposed. This is hopefully a sign that sanity is beginning to impose itself on AI. JL
Isabelle Bousquette reports in the Wall Street Journal: 

The golden age of unbridled spending on AI might be behind us. Vendors say big companies have become more cautious about what they buy. They’re taking longer to evaluate solutions, involving more legal and finance teams, and placing more emphasis on the financial returns they might get out. The breakneck pace of AI innovation is also making customers wary of sales commitments. Last year, spurred by corporate FOMO and an aggressive campaign from tech giants, enterprises spent more than $1.249 trillion in software. (But) they found it was hard to measure financial returns. And what they could measure wasn’t impressive. "They are trying to understand the outcome of a purchase, not just following the hype.” 

Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Attacks Have Disrupted Expected Russian Offensives

Ukraine's ongoing counterattacks in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropavlovsk, Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts have disrupted Russian offensive plans for the spring and summer by pushing Russian troops out of favorable assault launching strongholds. 

The attacks have provided Ukraine with more defensible positions which will make the Russians' plans even less likely of success because of the difficult terrain they will now be forced to traverse, if they are even able to contemplate maintaining those plans. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Ukrainian forces are conducting counterattacks and assault operations in the Oleksandrivka sector to stop Russian troops from advancing toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian counterattacks liberated several settlements in the Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, slowing Russian advances and complicating their preparations for a potential summer offensive.

Russia's Reliance On Starlink Became Vulnerability For Drones, Assault Plans

Russian forces in Ukraine were far more dependent on 'gray', eg, illegal Starlink usage than had been previously understood by almost all informed analysts - evidently including those in the Kremlin. Intercepts of Russian communications indicate that there are no available alternatives to Starlink which are anywhere near comparable.

Starlinks' performance enhanced drone operations due to their range, and were essential to coordination between assault, artillery and drone units. The performance of Russian troops since the stoppage has significantly degraded, giving the Ukrainians an opportunity they have seized to improve their own positions and damage the Russians'. JL

Olena Mukhina reports in Euromaidan Press:

Almost all frontline coordination and communication in Russian forces relied on 'gray' Starlink terminals. "The Starlink shutdown caused real chaos for the Russians and disorganized them." The Starlinks enabled real time drone control with minimal signal delay making them largely immune to electronic warfare disruption. Russia has no Starlink equivalent, as "available alternatives are significantly inferior." The Ukrainians have used this advantage to launch a series of counterattacks to improve positions and disrupt planned Russian attacks. 

Facing More Local Data Center Resistance, AI Cos Build Off-Grid Power Plants

AI standalones and big tech companies, facing growing opposition to data centers due to their impact on energy costs and environmental quality, are lobbying state and local governments to permit off grid power plants using various fuels, though primarily natural gas. 

These plants may still create pressure on local electricity costs. In addition, plants built by Elon Musk in Tennessee and West Virginia are already generating complaints about pollution and air quality. This issue is not going away. JL

Evan Halper reports in the Washington Post:

After the rapid growth of data centers triggered pushback from politicians, utilities and local residents over the pressures they place on the grid, tech companies are now building their own private power plants, mostly fueled by natural gas. The projects could also drive up prices for customers who use the power grid, as developers outbid utilities for equipment and leave other ratepayers to bear the costs of maintenance for older energy infrastructure. Untested designs will inevitably develop maintenance problems that cause cost overruns, malfunctioning equipment and outages. Spending on the projects may pay off by creating pressure on utility companies to accommodate more data centers on the grid. “They removed local control completely for this speculative gold rush. Everything is shrouded in secrecy, and the public is removed from the process.”

38% Of Russian Military Personnel Cost Now For Death Benefits

To put that number in perspective, the amount of the Russian military budget allocated for death benefits is 38%, which is more than the amount paid to living soldiers - 33%. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

More than one-third of the Russia's national military personnel spending on Ukraine funds survivor benefits to relatives of hundreds of thousands of soldiers killed in combat. That’s more than the Kremlin spends on paying soldiers salaries or bonuses to recruit new ones. The cost to pay men to fight in Ukraine, and to pay relatives of soldiers killed in that fighting has skyrocketed, from $39 billion from mid-2023 to mid-2024 to $52 billion in 2025. Russian casualty rates are unlikely to change quickly, because Ukrainian defense tactics aiming to cause maximum casualties have been consistently effective for more than a year, and have a history of improving in effectiveness over time