A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Aug 9, 2026

Ukraine Drone Boats Launch FPVs To Destroy Russian Attack Near Kherson

On the Dnipro River near Kherson, Ukrainian Marines used FPV drones launched from Barracuda sea drones to attack a Russian troop rotation being carried out by boats. 

In another example of the evolving technological war, the Ukrainian drones destroyed the Russian vessels and the troops they were carrying. JL

Sofia Syngaivska reports in Defense Express:
Ukrainian Marines used unmanned surface vessels to launch FPV strike drones against Russian boats near Zaliznyi Port in the Kherson region, disrupting an attempted troop rotation and destroying the enemy landing party and its boats. The operation was carried out using Ukrainian Barracuda unmanned surface vessels, which served as launch platforms for FPV strike drones. Russian forces attempted to disrupt the operation by attacking one of the Ukrainian USVs with two Shahed-type strike drones. The cost of the Russian Shaheds was significantly higher than that of the target they were used against. One of the Ukrainian boats was damaged in the attack, but the remaining vessels continued the mission.

Coffin Prices In Russia Have Surged 105% Due To Ukraine War Casualties

A 105% increase in coffin costs is substantial and reflects growing demand driven by the massive scale of Russian casualties in Ukraine. 

But the price of grave digging has risen so much that the Russian government statistics agency has removed it from the the calculation of inflation. And almost 2,500 new funeral service companies have registered in Russia in the past 18 months, suggesting that the profession is perceived to be a growth market. JL

Ivan Khomenko reports in United 24:
The average cost of a coffin in Russia has risen by 105% since the country launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. According to data from Russia’s state statistics system Rosstat, the average price of a coffin reached 9,167 rubles ($112) in June 2026, compared with 4,469 rubles ($54) in February 2022. The cost of grave digging has also increased substantially. The service averaged 7,849 rubles (about $96) in February 2022. By December 2025, the average price had reached 12,576 rubles ( $153) about 60% above its pre-invasion level. 1,543 new funeral service companies opened in Russia during 2025. Another 995 entered the market during the first six months of 2026.

The Russian Army Is Failing Badly This Summer - And That Will Not Change

The adjectives being used to describe Russian military efforts in Ukraine this summer do not inspire hope: insufficient, extremely unlikely, unrealistic and, repeatedly, failure, failed, failing.

The harsh reality is that Russia has no answers to Ukrainian strategy and tactics. Its attacks on civilian targets have demonstrated no structural impact on Ukrainian war making capabilities or morale and Russian leadership is increasingly seen as ineffective and out of touch. Putin reportedly had a widely publicized call with the commander of Russian airborne forces to 'demonstrate' that he is in control after being mocked for announcing the capture of several cities which turned out to still be in Ukrainian hands. The question is not if, but how and when he will be forced to seek some sort of denoument. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:
The Russian military is still failing badly this summer—and that will not change. On the battlefield, the basics favor the Ukrainian strategy of causing massive Russian casualties while saving their own lives. And the data supports this. The Russian summer offensive (it is already into August—so much of the summer is gone) shows Russian advances are miniscule, far below the small advances of 2025, and Russian casualties are now more than 40,000 a month. So the Russian army is struggling, suffering massive losses and its logistic situation is getting worse.

Aug 8, 2026

Russia Saves Money By Declaring Missing Soldiers AWOL Rather Than Dead

For Russian soldiers serving in Ukraine - and their families at home - being promised bonuses and death benefits turns out to be much easier than collecting them. 

Given the scale of Russian casualties, the Kremlin prefers to list missing soldiers as AWOL (absent without leave) rather than dead or captured, because doing so saves the economically strapped Russian government as much as 13 million rubles per soldier. JL

RFE/RL reports:

High wages and other payments, such as death benefits for relatives, have been a major incentive for Russian men to sign contracts to fight in Ukraine. But the Russian military has been struggling to maintain manpower  as the war drags on and Moscow’s forces suffer heavy losses while gaining ground at a glacial pace. In 95% of the cases in which a serviceman has disappeared, evidence indicates the soldier may have been badly wounded, captured by Ukrainian forces, or killed. (But) the Russian state saves up to 13 million rubles ($160,000) for each soldier who is falsely reported as having gone AWOL. It also allows commanders to avoid taking steps to declare soldier missing in action: gathering documents, questioning fellow servicemen, alerting relatives, etc.

Fortress Belt Capture By Russians This Year Deemed "Extremely Unrealistic"

Despite Putin's prioritizing the capture of Ukraine's Fortress Belt by the end of 2026, objective analysts believe that goal is 'extremely unrealistic' due to the Russian military's 'insufficient rate of advance' so far this year.

That miniscule advance rate has been imposed by strong Ukrainian defense, which has caused massive casualties and logistical breakdowns that are exacerbated by Russia's own ongoing recruitment and supply difficulties. JL

The New Voice of Ukraine reports:
Russian forces ability to capture the entire Donbas by the end of the year remains “extremely unrealistic.” Russia’s monthly rate of advance was higher in July than in June but remained insufficient to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast by Putin’s new deadline of Dec. 31, 2026 despite the deployment of 'elite' airborne and naval infantry units. It as extremely unlikely that Russian forces would capture the Donbas fortress belt - comprising Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk - in the near future, if they are capable of doing so at all.

Putin's Latest Donbas Deadline Again Thwarted By Ukrainian Forces

It is a famous adage of business that deadlines are made to be broken. Whoever first pointed that out probably was not thinking of the Russian Army, but, boy, have they embraced it. Starting with the 'three day' invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there does not seem to have been a deadline set by the Kremlin that its army has not found a way to miss. 

The latest in this panoply of failure is Putin's insistence that the Donbas be captured in its entirety by the end of 2026. Most experts are now predicting that due to Ukraine's defense, its extensive fortifications, the Russians' 'very heavy losses every day" and the abysmally slow pace of what passes for Russian advances this year - to the extent there have been advances at all - it is 'extremely unlikely' that the latest goal will be achieved either. JL

Raj K reports in Medium:
Every deadline Putin sets for the fall of Donbas comes and goes. Now there is talk of a new deadline, according to which the goal is to establish full Russian control over the entire Donbas region by the end of 2026. Looking at the current situation on the battlefield, achieving this goal within the set time will be extremely difficult. Russia is suffering very heavy military losses every day and the fighting ability of many units is continuously decreasing. The reason is not only Ukrainian resistance, but the pace of the war, military capabilities, logistics, availability of weapons, and the constantly rising human and economic costs. Russian forces only managed to push a few soldiers into the outskirts of Kostianynivka, creating only gray zones. The four large cities standing in Russia’s path are much bigger than Pokrovsk, more dangerous, and their fortifications are far stronger. All four “Fortress Belt” cities still stand under Ukrainian control.

AI Data Centers Are Losing the Fight: Even Texas "Pauses" Approvals Until Audited

Data centers have unwittingly encapsulated all that is wrong with American society and politics: wealth concentration, the decline of affordability, energy costs, inability to buy homes, inflation, obnoxious billionaires, environmental degradation - and will no doubt eventually be blamed for whoever doesn't win the World Series... 

The serious problem for big tech and investors is that AI valuations and growth projections were premised on a set of already questionable assumptions which had, at their core, the necessity of data and compute scale being available to support AI's growth. Not only is that increasingly less likely, but every politician in America - including the governor of Texas - is now running against, not for data centers. If you're a big money industry and you've lost Texas, well, you'd better lawyer up. JL

Aaron Mak and Jessie report in Politico, Paul Cobler reports in the Texas Tribune:

Data centers are on the losing end of a populist backlash. Fears the server-packed data hubs will drive up electricity prices, deplete water supplies and gobble farmland have prompted people across the country to pack meetings of zoning boards and county commissions to oppose the projects, while leaders in both parties are calling for moratoriums. Amid growing public backlash to the rapid buildout of data centers across Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott announced a moratorium on the approval of data centers until regulators can audit proposed data centers seeking connection to the state’s electric grid. Messaging about the benefits of the facilities is failing to resonate with the public. A recent poll found just 16% of people agreed data centers “benefit the area they are built in and the country as a whole,” while 60% said they come at the expense of the local area and country or provide no benefits at all.