Putin's Black Sea Holiday Palace Air Defenses Destroyed By Ukraine

First, the Ukrainians destroyed the electronic warfare system overseeing the palace. Then they took out the surface to air missile battery. 

 It's almost as awkward as forcing Putin to cancel his annual St Petersburg navy ship parade. Almost.  JL

Daryna Vialko reports in RBC/Ukraine:

Ukraine has carried out successful strikes on electronic warfare systems and S-400 air defense systems protecting Putin's palace near Gelendzhik on the Black Sea coast. The 17,700-square-meter complex has a no-fly zone, while 7,000 hectares of surrounding land are owned by the FSB. The construction cost of the complex was estimated to be 100 billion rubles. On August 7, the Volna Kupol Garant electronic warfare system was hit. On August 9, an S-400 surface-to-air missile system located nearby was struck.

Large Russian Convoy Destroyed 20 Km Behind Frontline

Ukraine's Azov Brigade destroyed a Russian convoy moving in what it thought was a safe distance behind the front. 

Ukraine's drone capabilities to strike Russian targets at previously unheard of ranges are, by now, well known. And videos show the Russians were travelling on a road littered with the burned out shells of previously destroyed Russian vehicles. But as we noted many times, the Russian Army is not a learning organization. JL

Sania Kozatskyi reports in Militarnyi:

Operators of Ukraine's 12th Azov Special Forces Brigade destroyed a large convoy of Russian military vehicles 20 kilometers from the front line near the settlement of Malynivka in the Donetsk region. The Russians were attempting to move in convoy, believing they were at a safe distance from the line of contact. Footage shows the Russians driving past dozens of destroyed vehicles that their predecessors had used in attempts to move near the front line in this area.

Ukrainian Gains In Zaporizhzhia Upend Russia's Southern Strategy

Russia's attempts to take more of Zaporizhzhia oblast have foundered due to its shortage of troops. Infiltrating small groups is not sufficient to hold ground.

Ukrainian intelligence, bolstered by constant drone surveillance, identified weak points in the Russian zone. The Ukrainians then attacked not just with infantry, but with armor, overwhelming the sparsely held Russian positions and regaining important local advantage. JL 

Raj K reports in Medium:

Zaporizhzhia oblast is considered the most strategically sensitive area in southern Ukraine. For months, Russia had been trying to advance in this region because from here, pressure can be put on both southern Ukraine and the Donbas. But in many areas where Russia claims occupation, very few soldiers are actually present. Such a strategy is very risky (because a marginally larger force can overpower them). So Ukraine used armored vehicles, military equipment, and ground forces to gain advantage. After continuous counterattacks, the Ukrainian army regained control over several areas in Zaporizhzhia. This is not just a local win, but a major blow to Russia’s strategy on the southern front.

Russia No Longer Has Enough Infantry To Execute the Kremlin's Strategy

The Russians do have a strategy for fighting the war in Ukraine. The problem is that they cannot execute it because someone forgot to sync the human cost it would take with the Kremlin's ability to field enough soldiers to make it work.

At the Fortress Belt, the Russians are trying to do what they sort of did at Pokrovsk: keep pressure on the center while flanking the Ukrainian defenders. But that was then. Russia can no longer recruit or draft enough cannon fodder to make up for its losses. And the gap is getting significantly wider. The Kremlin can just about replace the 30,000 to 40,000 Russian troops per month that the Ukrainians are killing or seriously wounding. To actually gain an advantage, not just replace losses, the Russians need 55,000 to 60,000 per month. And not even a one-time injection of North Koreans can make up that difference. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

The Russians have a playbook for taking a Ukrainian city, but it means doing two things at the same time. Along the 100-km Kramatorsk front, they don't have the infantry to do both at once. Every time a Ukrainian brigade holds somewhere, the Russians have to move men to cover it—and something stalls somewhere else. The strategy only works when the troops on the flanks and those in the middle work together. The former squeezes. The latter infiltrates. The problem for the Russian forces on the Kramatorsk front is that it's not squeezing and infiltrating at the same time. That delays Russia's advance and buys time for Ukrainian forces to dig in and reinforce. To capture the rest of the Donbas, Russia needs to replace 55,000 to 60,000 casualties every month—double what it recruits. "The shift to two- and three-man infiltration teams on motorcycles and ATVs is less a sign of tactical innovation than of a manpower deficit (the Kremlin) is straining to hide."

Nvidia Sparks New AI Debt Binge, Cleverly Shifting Risk To Wall Street

You have to hand it to Nvidia. When things began to slow down for AI companies, as the numbers needed got too big and the opposition to their build-out plans too determined, the company stepped up to lend its customers a significant amount of the money they needed to keep buying more of Nvidia's products. Then, when analysts and investors began to question whether these circular lending relationships - think circulate firing squad - were creating false demand, Nvidia pivoted. 

The result is that Wall Street has been sold, by Nvidia, on the financial benefits of lending half a trillion dollars to the AI industry. This cleverly shifts the economic and political risk from Nvidia to Wall Street, which is probably assuming that, as in the past, if things go south, they will shift the burden to US tax payers by convincing the federal government that if they don't step up, the economy will crash. The only problem is that the economic case for the AI build-out is still not clear so that while the bankers and chip sellers will make huge profits in the short term, in the worst, but not unlikely, case, will only help them ride out the collapse their strategy created. Nvidia's stock price dropped after this deal was announced yesterday. Investors are still not sold on the fantasmagorical AI story. JL

Andrew Sorkin and colleagues report in the New York Times:

Monday was the day we may look back on years from now as the inflection point in the A.I. boom, the moment it got so leveraged that a crisis began to form. Nvidia’s announcement that it was teaming up with a half-dozen Wall Street firms to lend $500 billion for the A.I. buildout adds a huge amount of debt to the A.I. economy. It’s a clever move for Nvidia, shifting systemic risk to Wall Street investors. Whether that’s a master class in balance sheet management or the start of a new credit bubble is the $500 billion question.

Ukraine Has Become the Ally the US Really Needs

Ukraine has now become, next to Israel, the country most able to provide the kind of military technology and advice that the US needs to fight Iran and prepare for potential conflict with China. 

It has achieved this status by developing its own, demonstrably effective weapons and tactics, but also by improving the US and NATO weapons it has received as gifts. And it has accomplished this while becoming not a supplicant, but a hard-nosed, transactional partner which understands the needs of its partners as well as the importance of lower cost and impact. In doing so, Ukraine has positioned itself as the ally best able to convert its expertise and production into an economically invaluable supplier. JL

Michael Weiss reports in The Atlantic:

If any country in Europe has the expertise to become a crucial node in America’s military supply chain, it’s Ukraine, an invaluable source of military know-how. Last month, the Ukrainian government approved exporting weapons and defense tech for the first time because the country now produces more weapons than it can afford to buy from its own companies. Ukraine currently produces 10 million drones a year; compared with the US’s 100,000. Some of these cost as little as $1,000 to make but have taken out Russian targets worth millions. Ukrainian technicians have upgraded some American products to achieve all of this. The US drone campaign against Iran now involves repurposing civilian technology for military use, as Ukraine has done. (And) a Florida-based drone company is looking for Ukrainian hardware and licenses includes investors: Eric and Donald Trump Jr.

Putin's Command Change Won't Produce Results As War Continues To Favor Ukraine

Putin keeps shuffling commanders in hopes that this tactical game playing will somehow produce a better result when the real problem is his strategic mismanagement. 

There can be no significant change in Russia's military effectiveness on the battlefield because the Kremlin's war fighting and military organization are fatally flawed by Putin's primary concern, which is holding on to power, not winning the war he initiated. There is little the new commanders can do that their predecessors have not already tried. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

The ground war continues to favor Ukraine's defense. Putin's military management reshuffle reflects his wanting to inject new ideas and energy into his war against Ukraine while messaging that those responsible for attacks against Russia’are being moved on. None of these leadership changes are likely to result in any significant change in the effectiveness of Russian military forces. The underlying strategy of Russia’s war against Ukraine is so poor, and Ukraine’s military effectiveness is continuing to improve, so there is little that these military leaders will be able to do to change the situation. Putin’s dilemma will become more acute as Ukraine’s strikes expand their reach and capacity. Crimea and the Russian interior are no longer separate problems but a single, unified target set for the Ukrainians.