Russian Command Asks Kremlin For More Time As Fortress Belt Attacks Fail

For months, ostensibly 'knowledgeable' observers have been predicting the imminent demise of Kostiantynivka, and with it, the eventual collapse of Ukraine's Fortress Belt. Yet here we are, one day from September and, whaddya know, it remains in Ukrainian hands. 

In fact, the Russian high command has now reportedly asked the Kremlin for more time - measured in months - as its attempts to take all of Donbas remain unrealistic. JL

Illia Kabachynskyi reports in United 24:

Russia's political leadership expects the entire Donetsk region to be occupied by December 31, 2026, while the military is asking for more time—until the end of March 2027. (But even) “that is unrealistic." For months, Kostiantynivka has remained one of the most difficult sectors of the front. Neighboring Dobropillia and Druzhkivka also face Russian pressure. Kostiantynivka is one of four major cities in the Donetsk region that together form the region’s defensive “fortress belt”: Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk. But despite months of assaults, Kostiantynivka remains under Ukrainian control. Russia did not carry out a single successful mechanized assault.

Ukraine's Military Advantage Lies In Its Ability To Adapt Faster Than Russia

Ukraine's primary military technology advantage is not any particular weapons system or drone, but

its 'adaptive velocity' - the speed with which it learns from experience, finds available components to improve its advantage and then keep learning faster than can the Russians. JL

Ukrinform reports:

Ukraine's main long-term military advantage lies in its ability to quickly adapt to changes on the battlefield, accumulate combat experience, and translate that experience into new solutions. First is adaptive velocity. Eight months after the invasion, a USV struck the Black Sea Fleet. Nothing was military-grade: commercial satellite comms, a jet-ski power pack that one can buy online, and a workshop-built hull. The same drove the FPV revolution - recombining components faster than the enemy adapts.” Ukraine’s information architecture is the second key advantage and its combat data has become a strategic asset. “Ukraine’s enduring advantage is not any single drone, but the ecosystem that learns faster than its adversaries,”

Supplying Troops, Weapons To Russia Earning North Korea $14 Billion

$14 billion is alot of money for an economy like North Korea's. And though it is unclear whether Russia can actually afford to transfer that amount of cash, given its dire economic condition, even the debt - especially if guaranteed or somehow underwritten by China - is a significant financial boost, making the provision of cannon fodder and missiles quite the export business opportunity. JL

Raj K reports in Medium:

North Korea could earn up to 14.4 billion dollars by providing soldiers and weapons to Russia, making it a major source of income for the country. Soldiers alone could easily earn $560 million per year. The second and largest component of earnings is attributable to the supply of weapons. Russia is also providing North Korea with military technology including satellite systems, and modern military equipment.

Russia's 2026 Offensive "One Of the Most Extraordinary Wastes In Military History"

To put it succinctly: in 2026 Russia has lost more land than it gained, have hardly advanced anywhere on the front, are losing 6,000 more soldiers monthly than they can replace - and those trends have accelerated during the spring-summer campaign season in which Russia historically posts its biggest gains.

Combined with the economic losses inflicted by Ukraine's long range strikes on oil refiners, storage and military manufacturing, it is little wonder that Putin is trying to change the conversation by threatening Europe, though with what he can actually threaten it given his abject failure in Ukraine is a question yet to be answered. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

What we have seen this summer and spring has been a Russian offensive that will go down as one of the most extraordinary and bloody wastes in military history. The Ukrainians have liberated more territory from Russia than the Russians have seized—during the Russian spring/summer offensive season. At the same time, Russian troop losses have continued to trend upwards. Over the last four weeks, the Russians have lost 36,080 troops in combat. That is a daily number of 1,289, which would work out to almost exactly 40,000 during the month of August. Russia is losing 6000 more troops a month than it can raise. So, the Russians have hardly advanced, have lost more land than they have gained, are losing considerably more soldiers every month than they can generate, and are facing serious internal questions about how to find more soldiers, for a summer of failure.

Nvidia Uses Deep Pockets, Investing $50 Billion To Keep AI Booming

Nvidia vehemently denies the $50 billion in AI companies is circular financing, to say nothing of the other billions it is investing in expanded electrical grid and related schemes. 

And as long as its own revenues and profits keep rising, it appears that most investors will keep supporting the company's DIY financing strategy. But Wall Street and tech have a history of going all in - 'the trend is your friend, don't fight the tape' - until they don't. The looming question is whether Nvidia's belief in its customers will be matched by their own performance. The further dependence of a narrowing global GDP on AI has economic policymakers' and wealth managers' attention. But whether they will have the wherewithal and courage to intervene if and when necessary is not clear. JL

Anissa Gardizy and Robbie Whelan report in the Wall Street Journal:

Nvidia has invested nearly $50 billion in frontier AI labs, using its balance sheet to bolster the AI boom and shows no signs of giving ground. On Wednesday, the world’s only $5 trillion company reported its second-quarter earnings, which included that the company expects its revenue to grow much faster than Wall Street analysts had been expecting Nvidia seized on the positive vibes created by the revenue news to offer a full-throated argument for the company’s growing use of financial guarantees, equity investments and other mechanisms to help its customers buy AI chips in ever greater quantities. In electricity, too, Nvidia is deploying its balance sheet to make sure customers have somewhere to plug in servers. Nvidia’s incentive is clear: The more power developers it works with, the more data centers that are specially built for its chips versus its competitors.

On Kupiansk Front, Ukraine Gains Another 2 Square Km As Russian Losses Rise

Ukrainian forces have gained another two square kilometers on the Kupiansk front as Russian casualties have risen to as many as 150 per day. 

These successes underscore the continued offensive performance of the Ukrainians while the Russians suffer additional losses in troops and territory in the north. JL

Gwara Media and Mezha report:

Ukraine's 23rd Assault Regiment of the Khartia Corps have liberated another 2 square kilometers of forest west of Dvorichna in the Kupiansk district. The current advance continues an operation in which the regiment’s troops had previously liberated 7.5 square kilometers of forest west of Dvorichna. The unit also established control over the northern part of Zapadne. Russia is losing 125-150 troops per day in Kharkiv oblast.

Russia Forced By Ukraine Strikes To Extend Fuel Export Ban Til January 2027

Russia has been forced to extend its ban on fuel exports by Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on its oil refineries, pipelines and storage facilities.

The ban has been extended six months and includes diesel, gasoline, marine fuel and other petroleum-based products. JL

Prime XBT reports:

Russia  has extended its ban on diesel, gasoline, marine fuel, and gas oil exports through January 31, 2027, pushing the restriction roughly six months further. Ukrainian drone strikes keep knocking Russian refineries offline. Ukraine has launched multiple drone strikes targeting Russian oil refining infrastructure, and a number of major facilities have been incapacitated or forced to reduce output. Russian diesel and gas oil loadings dropped to approximately 234,000 barrels per day in early July 2026. The extended ban is already pushing European diesel margins to historic highs.