Putin's Claims Of Battlefield Gains Begin To "Border On Hallucinations"

There is a raging debate among informed observers as to whether Putin's grandiose claims of success in Ukraine are due to the ancient practice of Russian officers lying to their superiors about setbacks and failures for fear of being blamed - or whether Putin is well aware but simply lying in order to raise doubts among his backers like Trump and Xi as well as opponents like the leaders of NATO and the EU. 

A reasonable assumption is that it is some of both: he is probably not fully aware of the debacle in Donbas (though Xi undoubtedly is) but he also believes that the big lie will raise just enough questions among European leaders to keep them hedging their bets. But a negative consequence of Putin's hallucinatory claims is that for those who are aware of the reality, his refusal to acknowledge setbacks is another sign of Kremlin fear and weakness. JL 

Ivan Khomenko reports in United 24:

Vladimir Putin’s claims of major Russian battlefield gains in Ukraine in September “border on hallucinations,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which assessed that Russian forces actually ended the month with a net territorial loss. On October 2, Putin claimed that Russian forces captured 1,301 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in September. ISW’s battlefield data, however, showed that Russian forces suffered a net territorial loss of 80.81 square kilometers during the same period. The discrepancy becomes even larger when areas where Russian troops infiltrated but failed to establish control are included. Under that calculation, ISW assessed Russia’s net territorial losses in September at 175.18 square kilometers. Such discrepancies are part of a deeply rooted practice within the Russian military of concealing setbacks and presenting senior leadership with inflated reports of battlefield success.

A 35 Year Old Ukraine Brigade Commander Talks About Leading the War Now

A new generation of commanders is emerging in the Ukrainian military. They are both younger and more experienced in fighting the Russians, which is an excellent combination if you want to win a war against the Kremlin's forces, because it brings both energy and savvy to the battle.

In addition, these new leaders recognize that, unlike the old Soviet (and current Russian) system, they must be more aware of their soldiers' well-being and morale. The army evolving under their leadership is more hardened, more professional and more effective as recent results have begun to show. JL

Demian Shevko reports in the New Voice of Ukraine:

At  35, the commander of Ukraine’s 46th Airmobile Brigade is broad, good-natured. He has an easy smile, a dry sense of humor and introduced himself simply as “Dima.” Being sent to difficult sectors became his career. His battalion fought around Klishchiivka and was repeatedly moved toward the Kupiansk front when Ukrainian positions came under pressure. During the Izium operation, senior officers defined the objective, but officers closer to the fight worked out how to achieve it, brought into planning because they would have to execute it. He sets the task and watches how subordinates translate it. What most determines a brigade’s success today: “The speed of decision-making.” An infantryman advancing toward a Russian position should not be expected to prevail through courage alone. Recon should identify the threat. Artillery and drones should work on it. Electronic warfare should help cover the troops moving forward.

Why Ukraine's Tanks Have Again Become A Battlefield Threat To Russia

The fatal flaw in conceptual thinking about armored operations in the drone age was not really the tanks themselves. It was the notion that they could operate independently, without additional support. 

What the Ukrainians have discovered - and achieved - is a combined arms approach to assaults that builds on the tanks armaments, but supports it with drone coverage to reduce the sources of Russian resistance before the attack and then accompany the thanks during the actual assault. It is that coordinated, mutually protective firepower and overwhelmingly lethal one-two-three punch that has again made tanks a feared opponent on the battlefield. JL

UA News reports:

The Ukrainian military is demonstrating that tanks have not lost their significance on the battlefield, where drones have become the main threats. A tank should not have to operate independently. Its main advantage is the combination of firepower, protection, and the ability to move under fire. But to do this, a tank needs support. The Ukrainian experience shows that drones can provide such support. They help the crew see the battlefield, locate enemy positions, and monitor threats from the air. In the case of the 475th Assault Regiment, tanks effectively moved alongside their own “screen” of drones. Some scouted the route, others attacked the enemy, and the heavy VAMPIRE provided bomb support. Tank crews have limited visibility so data from drones can help tank crews understand what is happening around their vehicle. “A tank is not an isolated weapon system to be mindlessly sent across the battlefield, but a powerful component in joint operations."

Russia Is No Longer Storming the Fortress Belt As Vivaldi Shattered Kremlin's Plan

The original Kremlin plan was to be in position to directly attack Ukraine's Fortress Belt by this time, this year. But that was then. Following the success of Operation Vivaldi, the Russians are falling back on several fronts as their forces appear incapable of turning back the Ukrainians' drone, armor and infantry counterattacks.

The question now is to what extent Ukraine can combine its human and technological resources to force a breakthrough that causes a real crisis for the Kremlin's military. JL

The World Strategist reports:

For months, Russian forces had been attempting an envelopment pushing toward the fortress cities from the south, trying to surround them from the southwest. Operation Vivaldi made that impossible. Ukraine's 3rd Corps struck north of Lyman with drones, ground robots and electronic warfare. They drove Russian forces out of the Lyman salient and advanced to the Zherebets River. The results were a disaster for Russia. Ukraine rendered Moscow’s plan to encircle the fortress cities “entirely unviable”.  Russian Forces have become “acutely vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks and logistics interdiction." The human cost for Russia was enormous. But the greater damage was to Russia’s operational planning. “Either Russian commanders do not understand that the Lyman salient is lost or military leaders in Moscow are “privately aware of operational realities on the ground” - even as field commanders submit “fabricated reports to create an illusion of progress."

With Vivaldi, Ukraine Has Undermined Assumptions About Offensive War In Drone Age

Innovation has spurred Ukraine's momentum, undermining assumptions about the impracticality of offensive warfare in the drone age.  

This is one of the reasons why Operation Vivaldi may be yet another turning point, as Russian forces struggle to catch up and offset the growing Ukrainian gains. JL

David Kirichenko reports in The Atlantic Council:

The effectiveness of the tactical and technological innovations employed during Operation Vivaldi have undermined assumptions regarding the impracticality of large-scale offensive operations amid the rise of drone warfare. If the lessons learned on the Lyman front can be scaled and implemented across the Ukrainian army, this could provide Ukraine with a model for restoring maneuver across drone-dominated battlefields. Vivaldi also sends a powerful message to Moscow and to Kyiv’s partners that the highly innovative Ukrainian military remains capable of defeating Russia on the battlefield.

Why Russia Purposely Leaves Its Dead On the Battlefield

If the family every Russian soldier killed in Ukraine were to get their promised death benefit, the total would amount to $68 billion - and that's just to date. So, it is, to put it politely, unlikely that the Kremlin has any intention of paying poor peasants in the hinterlands or the urban poor in big cities that kind of money. 

B Kean reports in Medium:

In 2023, Putin signed a decree stating that families of fallen soldiers would receive $68,000. Today, roughly 1 million Russian soldiers have been killed in Putin’s war against Ukraine. If Russia were to pay the families of each fallen soldier, the total would be $68 billion. There is no way in hell the Russian government plans to pay for each fallen soldier. Throughout Russia, loved ones of the fallen are finding they cannot get confirmation that their family members were killed. Officers tell their soldiers not to collect the dead. In some units, quotas limit how many fallen soldiers can be sent back to families. Regional governors are warned that if too many families request payments, the governors will pay. 

First Ukraine-Made Ballistic Missile Fired At Russia. More To Come

Russia is about to get a taste of its own deeply unpleasant medicine. JL

Andrew Kramer reports in the New York Times:

On Thursday, Ukraine fired a domestically made ballistic missile in combat for the first time. It is a breakthrough in Kyiv’s push to field a powerful (missile). The FP-7, produced by the Ukrainian company Fire Point, has a short-range of 155 miles. But Fire Point is developing a larger ballistic missile that would be able to reach Moscow and strategic defense industry targets. That missile has a greater potential to change the dynamics of the war, and is expected to be ready later this year. Ballistic missiles are hard to intercept, fly quickly to targets and can carry a heavier payload than most of drones. The missile could help tip the economics of the missile and drone war more in Ukraine’s favor.