A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Mar 18, 2024

Russia Unable To Advance Despite Manpower, Ammunition Advantage

As American author Mark Twain once noted about himself, predictions of Ukraine's death have been greatly exaggerated. 

Despite Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka and the plethora of articles that generated about Russian forces being unstoppable, Ukraine has, in fact, stopped them. And pretty much everywhere on the front line. And despite Ukraine's being low on artillery ammunition, as well as fresh troops. So as Europe, and the Czech Republic in particular, begin to deliver substantial new quantities of ammo just as Ukraine is advancing new legislation to increase conscription, the question is whether Russia has missed its moment through profligate waste of soldiers and equipment, to say nothing of ineffective leadership. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

On the front line, after the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka, the front line once again has barely moved. There have been shifts of a kilometre here and there, but no breakthrough and no major Ukrainian withdrawal. This has happened even when Ukrainian artillery fire (because of the cut-off of US aid) is way down. The longer the line remains static the better now, as it allows Ukraine to build deeper and better defensive lines. (And) the Ukrainian campaign against Russian fuel refineries.once again shows Ukraine can be more effective with its ranged attacks using cheaper systems than Russia has been with its very expensive missiles.

Ukrainian Marines Repel Renewed Russian Naval Infantry Attacks On Krynky

Ukrainian Marines have again defeated Russian attempts to assault their cross-Dnipro bridgehead by Russian Naval Infantry. 

The attackers were the decimated and repeatedly reconstituted 810th Guards Naval Infantry, which have been depleted so frequently over the two years of the invasion that it is now  made up of recent recruits will little training, no longer resembling the elite unit it once ostensibly was. JL  

Militarnyi reports:

Ukrainian marines eliminated Russian marines who attempted to assault Krynky. Russian troops continue their attempts to force the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces out from the foothold on the left bank of the Kherson region. Documents established that the Russians had signed contracts with the Russian marines only a few months ago. The 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade of the Russian Army is fighting on the Russian side in this area.

How Czech Republic Has Now Sourced 1.5 Million Artillery Rounds For Ukraine

The Czech Republic has used its experience as a respected arms manufacturer to source as many as 1.5 million artillery shells for Ukraine. These will be delivered in batches over the next nine months and more may be available with more funding. 

The Czechs' status as a former Soviet state, the perception that it is an ostensibly neutral country and its willingness to serve as a middle man, has made it possible for it to negotiate with businesses and countries who do not want to publicly offend Russia. JL 

Bojan Pancevski reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The Czech Republic, once a Soviet satellite, is one of Ukraine’s most ardent supporters. By activating relations dating back to the Cold War, it has sourced 800,000 artillery shells from a suppliers spanning the globe and identified another 700,000 that could be secured with extra funds. The shells include 300,000 Soviet-standard shells and 500,000 Western-made rounds, to be delivered by the end of the year. More shells will be available as funding comes. Prague’s efforts exposed a discrepancy between some governments’ friendly attitude to Russia in public and their openness to doing business with Ukraine in private. “If you come with money they are interested, and Czechia is seen as neutral."

Pro-Ukraine Russians Seize More Villages As Cross-Border Assault Grows

Ukraine's increasingly bold attacks inside Russia - with drone assaults on almost half of Russia's oil refineries, some hundreds of miles from the front - have now become more threatening as anti-Putin Russian troops allied with Ukraine have expanded their offensive along a 100 mile front. Several Russian villages have been captured and the city of Belgorod had suffered casualties from bombardment. 

With schools and shopping malls closed and some evacuations of Russian civilians ordered, the attacks pose an embarrassing counterpoint to Putin's claims of an election victory, which had already been disputed by many in the west. JL 

Andrew Kramer and Oleksandr Chubko report in the New York Times:

By both Ukrainian and Russian accounts, fierce fighting has raged along Russia’s southern border for five days in the most sweeping ground attacks into Russia since its military invaded Ukraine two years ago. A half-dozen Russian border posts and villages have come under attack and tanks are the first foreign military assaults inside Russia since World War II. The attacks continue at 9 sites along a100-mile stretch of border between Belgorod and Kursk. With the fighting escalating, shopping malls were closed Sunday and schools closed Monday and Tuesday. The attacks divert Russian forces away from the battlefield, put a dent in Russia’s economy, unnerve Russians and create leverage in future negotiations.

Anti-Putin Russians Expand Their Attacks For 5th Day, Cause Border Region Chaos

Russia is betting/hoping the anti-Putin forces' cross-border attack will peter out as local troops inflict some casualties. 

But as the groups seized yet another village inside Russia, Ukraine may begin providing more artillery and air support to force the Kremlin to divert already depleted units from the front line in Ukraine. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Russian volunteer groups fighting on behalf of Ukraine continue their latest—and biggest—incursion into Russia’s border oblasts, a week after the groups fought their way across the frontier. The goal isn’t to seize ground: it’s to embarrass and de-legitimize Russian president Putin. But yesterday, the volunteers marched into Gor'kovskii, west of Kozinka, which they had already seized.With its military stretched thin sustaining a largely failed offensive in Ukraine, the Kremlin hasn’t been willing to shift troops to Belgorod and Kursk, hoping they will peter out. "These actions reveal the weakness of Russian forces protecting the border and their limited ability to respond to such incidents.”

As Economy Is More Tech-Reliant, Age Discrimination Benefits Non-Tech Firms

Age discrimination is a fact of life in tech. The dotcom foundational myth of young white guys starting billion dollar companies in garages around Palo Alto remains. 

And as tech firms lay off workers in search for different kinds of skills, this may thwart older workers (like those over 29...). But as every company becomes a tech company, this may benefit those firms not explicitly 'tech' who need coding expertise and experience. JL  

Amanda Hoover reports in Wired:

Tech companies have laid off more than 400,000 workers over the past two years. Data shows US tech workers skew younger than the wider US workforce. Older workers may be out of work for longer between jobs because ageism is “an open secret in the tech industry”. Older workers are (often) excluded because recruiters assume they (do) not fit into the company culture. Consistent growth in recent decades as the economy has become more tech-centric means that recruiters perceive more senior workers wouldn’t be appealing to employers. “There are a lot of people who have a lot of skills who are unemployed longer than they ought to be. It’s a loss for them, and it’s a loss for society.”

Mar 17, 2024

Ukrainian Drones Hit Moscow's Main Domodedovo Airport

The damage inflicted is less important than sending Russian citizens the message that they are no longer safe going about their daily business because of Putin's Ukraine invasion. JL 

Ellie Cook reports in Newsweek:

Ukrainian explosive drones hit the roof of Moscow's Domodedovo airport, after a video shows a flash and audible buzzing sound which can be distinctive of drone strikes. In another clip, a loud explosion can be heard as pedestrians watch and move to take cover. Another video circulating online shows a cavernous room filling up with smoke. Flight restrictions on takeoffs and landings were placed on several of the city's airports.