"Puffy-Looking and Weird:" Putin's Physical and Mental Decline Is "Obvious"

Some say he is being misled by his subordinates. 

But given his control over Russia's people and information sources, the more likely explanation is that he, like his ally in the White House, simply refuses to admit that anything is amiss, believing that the Big Lie, if repeated often and loudly enough, will overawe his enemies. Until it doesn't. JL

Robert Fox reports in The Indepedent:

Putin now appears to be imitating his frenemy Donald Trump in his increasingly volatile unpredictability. This makes him more dangerous. Victory in Ukraine seems remote – and the lack of progress is stinging Putin into new actions and provocation. (But) Putin’s claims and boasts seem wide of the mark. He said the war would be won, and Russia wanted chunks of four oblasts in Ukraine that his army had failed to dominate completely by force of arms. This war is unsustainable for another year and probably Putin knows it: another cause for concern for his state of mind and political judgment. As the Russian leadership becomes psychologically bunkered, the risk rises  Is Putin “is getting weirder? Yes.”

Momentum Shift: In May, Russia Lost Double the Ground It Lost In April

The overarching strategic question is no longer whether the Russians can turn this situation around - because it is increasingly apparent that they have neither the resources nor the leadership to do so - but at what point losing the territory they have remaining becomes irreversible. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Russian forces surrendered a net 93 square miles of Ukrainian territory over the four weeks to 3 June, double their losses in the preceding month. Ukraine’s drone strikes in the Pokrovsk sector destroyed 105 Russian artillery systems in May, twice April’s tally, and a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger conceded Ukrainian drones are preventing Russian forces from rotating troops. Ukraine  announced fire control over the Crimea to Donetsk corridor on 29 May. Open-source analysis has logged more than a thousand geolocated Ukrainian strikes in the Russian rear since the start of 2026, with 35% hitting ammunition, fuel and equipment depots, 20% hitting transport and 7% striking air defences. Western analysts count more than 125 destroyed trucks on the route.

Multiple Sources Point To Declining Russian Battlefield Combat Effectiveness

By a variety of measures that multiple sources employ, Russian battlefield combat effectiveness is declining, resulting in growing Ukrainian offensive success. 

The Russian declines are reflected in measures including the loss of territory, increased casualties and failure to either penetrate Ukrainian defenses or to halt Ukrainian offensive operations. JL

Alex Stezhensky reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

Multiple sources point to declining Russian combat effectiveness on the battlefield, even though they use different mapping methods to assess territorial gains and losses. Analysts said the current battlefield situation, with Ukrainian and Russian positions often overlapping and the “kill zone” — an area of heightened drone strike risk — expanding, makes precise calculations of both sides’ gains and losses more difficult. Each source likely uses different methods to measure Ukrainian and Russian advances, but all reach broadly similar conclusions about combat performance at this stage of the war, pointing to a slowdown in Russia’s offensive pace and increased Ukrainian offensive activity.

The Absurdity of Wall Street's SpaceX IPO Projections

This article appeared Friday morning, before the big market crash. Tomorrow, investors will see whether the panic continues or whether the chest-thumping AI hype machine recovers and begins to turn things around. Either way, increasing questions are being raised about the assumptions underlying the boom. 

And at the core of those questions lies the biggest assumption of all: that such projections, at this stage of an historic rally, have any relationship with probability, let alone reality. Believe what you will, based on your own experience and the guidance of those you trust, but given that no one has ever seen such numbers before, ask why this time should actually be different. JL

Barry Ritholtz reports in The Big Picture:

Thinking back in 2012 about 2026 was AI the top of your list? Intel rallying after the US government took a 10% stake? Korea up 4X? GameStop short squeeze? Did you anticipate the pandemic, the rise of EVs, the invasion of Ukraine, or either Trump election? January 6, or October 7? The world is composed of countless co-variables - things we cannot predict, but also secondary effects and unforeseen consequences that are even more impossible to forecast - the further out you look, the possible outcomes increase exponentially. Allow me to present Exhibit A in whatever subsequent litigation arises: “SpaceX’s revenue could reach $3.4 trillion in 2040, according to Morgan Stanley. The firm’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2040 could top $2.7 trillion."  It is hilarious anyone imagines they can forecast revenues and/or profits a decade and a half into the future, let alone $3.4 trillion. 

Ukrainian Battlefield Success Reflects Its Strength More Than Russian Weakness

Commentary on Russia's cascading setbacks in 2026 have focused primarily on its own missteps. But this ignores what may be the most important reason for the change in fortunes; Ukraine's growing strengths.

The Ukrainians drone performance, while obviously significant, has become almost a cliche. Behind it are a welter of other Ukrainian successes including war-experienced younger leadership, more accurate and lethal weapons, a resilient, determined military and an uncowed populace. Combined, they are on the cusp of creating a legend. JL

Peter Dickinson reports in The Atlantic Council:

The Russian army has failed to achieve any of the key objectives set at the start of the invasion. This underwhelming outcome reflects Ukrainian strength rather than Russian weakness. Ukraine’s success in stemming the tide of Russia’s invasion will be studied for decades. It is the collective achievement of a society that has mobilized to an unprecedented degree. Everyone has played their part, from the numbers of men and women in uniform, to the innovative Ukrainian defense tech industry. 

Since December, Putin's Army Has Not Been Able To Hold Ground In Ukraine

Ukrainian President Zelensky's letter to Putin suggesting they meet directly was rejected by the Russians. Clearly not surprised, Zelensky then went on to point out the Russian military's manifest failures, especially on the battlefield. The Kremlin forces' performance has become so underachieving that it can no longer hold ground against counterattacking Ukrainian troops. Much of the territory the Russians ostensibly 'occupy' is, in fact, merely infiltrated and cannot be contested by the Russians when Ukraine attacks. 

Ballistic terror attacks against civilian targets are Russia's last throw of the military dice "the last Russian argument in the war." The Ukrainians went on to mock Putin, saying "you wont have enough money and political power to continue buying the loyalty of Russians." JL

John Psaropoulos reports in Al Jazeera:

Ukraine's tactcs seem to be winning. Battlefield analysts have come to the conclusion that the Ukrainians have forced the Russian army to a standstill. Many of the areas previously thought to be Russian-controlled were merely infiltrated and contested. “There are no safe roads for Russia in the south and east of our country. You hope that ballistics will do for you what everything else has failed to do. Ballistics is the last Russian argument in the war. Your resources are significantly dwindling,” Zelenskyy wrote. “You won’t have enough money and political power to continue buying the loyalty of Russians, as you’ve been doing for 26 years.”

How One Company Created 13 New Types of Jobs Because of AI

Most of the commentary about AI and jobs has had to do with which ones and how many will be eliminated. But as with all new technologies, there has also been the expectation that some new, unanticipated roles will be created. 

Some of those new positions are starting to appear. Unsurprisingly, many are designed to help customers implement tools to use the new technology. And others to help internal employees deploy it more productively. It would be prudent to assume that many of these roles will be transitional, fading away as growing numbers of people become more competent in evaluating, designing and implementing AI. A percentage will probably become permanent in order to keep improving productivity and customer satisfaction. The larger point is that there will be a need for new AI-related skills. JL

Kalley Huang reports in the New York Times:

Box posted a new job: senior director of A.I., data and integration, to help it wire together its internal systems and data. The job was one of 13 new roles Box has created because of A.I., with titles like A.I. architect, A.I. solutions manager, A.I. platform leader and forward deployed engineers, who help customers which dont have the technical know-how to use AI. Another is A.I. business automation engineer, to help colleagues use A.I. more productively. It also created new roles for evaluating A.I. models. As A.I. models advance, the way they answer questions or are structured can change. That means customers need help using new models. With the proliferation of these positions, Box expects to have more than 3,000 employees next year, up from 2,900 at the this year. “We are selling A.I. to our customers, causing us to need more people, and as a user of A.I., we’re getting new forms of productivity that’s also causing us to hire.”