In A Year, Ukraine Has Gone From Crisis To Freeing 400 Km, Aiding US vs Iran

The narrative sure has changed. A year ago, sonorous experts were warning of Ukraine's imminent collapse due to manpower shortages and Russia's seemingly implacable strength. Fast forward to this month and Ukraine has not only taken on the offensive initiative in the Donbas and southern parts of its land, but is helping the US defend itself against Iranian drones with Russian targeting (despite White House denials).  

The implication is that in the preceding year, despite the US government trying to assist Russia and despite Russia's brutal attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the depths of winter, Ukraine has emerged stronger. And as if that were not significant enough, Russia's attempts at offensive operations across the front this winter have uniformly failed. Given the disparity in sizes, this may not be a complete momentum shift, but it is a signal that the previous, negative narrative was superficial and, arguably, inaccurate. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina and Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

A year ago, many were saying Ukraine was failing. Ukraine was facing a manpower crisis, would be unable to hold back the Russian steamroller and with the US now under Donald Trump, faced a bleak future. The reality ended up being rather different. From that to helping the USA defend itself is quite a trajectory. Ukraine is helping the US and Gulf States and is the only nation in the world who could have provided aid so quickly. (And) the most important battlefield development of the past year was Ukraine’s liberation of occupied Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in a deliberate, planned series of attacks. The operation resulted in Russian forces postponing their planned offensives, redeploying troops from other sectors, and reinforcing their defenses. Russia’s spring-summer offensive disrupted before it commenced is a significant achievement.

Ukraine Clearing Russians North of Pokrovsk As Another Kremlin Plan Disrupted

Taking a page from their own book, Ukrainian forces around Pokrovsk got the jump on Russian units attempting to infiltrate in yet another limited operation intended to - finally, maybe - succeed at Pokrovsk this decade. 

If the tactics sound familiar, it is because they are eerily similar to what the Ukrainians have been achieving in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk. That is, anticipating the Russia strategy and then acting before the Kremlin can give their orders. The significance is that this reconfirms the growing sense that, at least so far in 2026, Ukraine has seized the momentum from Russia. JL

Yuri Zoria reports in Euromaidan Press:

Ukraine's 7th Rapid Reaction Corps troops are conducting clearing operations northwest of Pokrovsk, while simultaneously striking Russian troop concentrations at the Russians' current staging ground with drones. The Institute for the Study of War confirmed Russian forces had attacked multiple points around Pokrovsk but did not advance. The Ukrainians are conducting active search-and-strike operations in Hryshyne, systematically detecting and destroying each group before it can consolidate. The 7th Corps' goal is to drive Russian forces entirely out of the settlement.

Meta's New AI Release Delayed As Performance Lags Google, OpenAI, Anthropic

Despite the ambitions - and money - of its founder and CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, Meta has been running fourth behind Google, OpenAI and Anthropic in the race to lead in AI. 

Those desires took another hit last week when the release date of its highly anticipated new AI model was delayed at least a couple of months following disappointing tests which judged its performance to be inferior to its rivals. Meta, nee Facebook, has been down this road before with the metaverse, which never lived up to its supposedly transformational billing. And despite throwing gobs of money at AI, Meta now finds itself, again, riven by internal jealousies, conflicts and suboptimal outcomes. It could turn this around, experts say, but in the meantime, is contemplating Google's Gemini AI as a temporary fill-in for its own. Awkward! JL

Eli Tan reports in the New York Times:

Meta's new foundational A.I. model, which the company has been working on for months, has fallen short of the performance of leading A.I. models from rivals Google, OpenAI and Anthropic on internal tests for reasoning, coding and writing. As a result, Meta has delayed Avocado’s release to at least May. The leaders of Meta’s A.I. division discussed temporarily licensing Google's Gemini to power Meta’s A.I. products. Being at the forefront of A.I. development also helps companies recruit technologists and keep up experimentation. Meta committed $600 billion to building data centers to power the technology and projected it would spend $135 billion this year. Meta's TBD Lab has experienced some turnover, with a handful of researchers departing.

Myth Vs Reality: Scaling Up Ukraine's Drone War Required Structure, Training

It is fascinating how Ukraine's success in drone warfare is so similar to business adaptation. Instead of the 'plug and play' myth, effective implementation requires serious training and organizational changes to optimize impact on desired outcomes. 

Ukraine has evolved from an early 'cowboy' phase driven by passionate volunteers to an increasingly institutionalized system in which purposeful recruitment, training and organization have replaced ad hoc approaches. The result can now be seen, four years into the war, as Ukraine, with far fewer soldiers, has fought Russia to a standstill and has now seized the offensive momentum, largely through the increasingly effective and lethal application of its operationally focused drone forces. JL

Oleksandra Molloy reports in The Australian Army Research Center:

The learning curve for drone piloting in combat is (challenging). Battlefield awareness is essential. Uncrewed systems remain highly dependent on people. Flying a drone is not simple. Each system is different; each mission is complex. Without proper training, drones are wasted. Investing in platforms means investing in people. Technical proficiency must be integrated with tactical awareness, coordination, survivability, and mission execution under fire. Humans are required for tasking, targeting, mission control, technical support, communications, logistics, power supply, and intelligence. Drone units must be institutionalised within the order of battle, integrated into established fire and manoeuvre systems. Deployment requires organisational structures: dedicated UAV platoons, companies, and battalions with defined command and standardised procedures.

Russian Ships Ferrying Weapons To Crimea Destroyed In Kerch Strait

Ukrainian drones extended their threat to Russian military operations by sinking one ship and damaging another which were attempting to transport weapons for Russian units in Crimea. 

The objective of these Ukrainian attacks is to demonstrate how insecure Russia's invasion operations have become, which also reveals the parlous state of its overall military posture. JL

Tim Zadorozhnyy reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine "successfully" struck two Russian vessels transporting weapons and military equipment through the Kerch Strait. Both ships served as as a "key part" of Russia's Kerch ferry service, used to supply ammunition and equipment to Russian forces fighting against Ukraine. The Russian railway ferry 'Slavianin' was put out of action, and the vessel 'Avangard' was damaged. The Kerch Strait — a 35-kilometer (21-mile) waterway linking the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov — separates the Kerch Peninsula in Russian-occupied Crimea from Russia's Taman Peninsula and serves as a key logistics corridor for Moscow.

As the World Is Distracted By Iran, Ukraine Seizes Offensive Momentum

As much of the world is diverted by the US-Israeli attack on Iran, Ukrainian forces have quietly seized the offensive from Russia and are advancing in several sectors of the south and east. 

Much commentary has been devoted to how the Trump-Netanyahu war has benefited Russia, but the evidence so far is that the Kremlin has been somewhat distracted itself, as one of its key allies is publicly pummeled - again - and Russia is perceived as to weak to assist, or even threaten to do much. This has aided Ukraine as its troops have used the opportunity to further destroy Russian men and equipment suffering from logistics and reinforcement challenges as well as its leadership's wavering attention. JL 

Stavros Atlamazoglou reports in The National Interest:

While war rages in the Middle East, the Ukrainian military is taking advantage of the tactical and operational situation to continue its counteroffensive. Ukrainian kamikaze drone operators supporting infantry battalions target Russian positions and vehicles 6 to 10 miles behind the frontline. The goal is to create a rolling screen for the infantry to advance, denying the Russians the ability to reinforce positions under attack. In many ways, the Ukrainian practice resembles the rolling, or creeping, artillery barrage—a century-old tactic that was first introduced by the British Army during the Second Boer War in South Africa, but became popular during the trench warfare of World War I.  The ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive aims to disrupt Russian plans and divert Kremlin resources.

Ukraine's Expanded Killzone Plan To Cut Off Russia's Frontline Is Working

One of Ukraine's most impressive accomplishments has been the ability to think and plan strategically despite the intense pressure its commanders are under. The tripling of the kill zone within which Russians can operate is evidence of this. 

The Ukrainians have systematically identified, targeted and begun eliminating with heavy 'bomber drones,' air defense systems which, in turn, makes it easier for lighter drones to then attack troop formations, logistics and command centers far behind the front, in areas once considered relatively safe. The result has been a significant degradation of Russian offensive and defensive capabilities. The Ukrainian advances in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk are evidence of how this is working. JL

Verity Bowman reports in The Telegraph:

A relentless, meticulously planned drone campaign expanding the kill zone threefold is choking Russia’s front-line forces,. It has turned areas considered safe behind the frontline deadly. The aim is to make it impossible for Russian forces to move men and equipment forward fast enough to sustain offensive operations. Ukrainian drones are now able to strike targets 93 miles away from the front line, compared to 31 miles weeks ago. At the heart is Ukraine's Deep Strike Command Centre, created in early 2026 to improve drone strikes on targets behind the front. Ukraine’s transition to a network-centric warfare planning and sharing real-time information allow forces to strike anywhere. “Precision, co-ordination and technological superiority play a key role.”