10,000 Casualties In 2 Weeks, No Gains: The Kremlin Strategy Causing 2026 Failure

Two weeks into what was being called Russia' spring-summer offensive, it is already being labelled a failure. Even for a war in which rapid change is the norm, this quick verdict is unusual - and noteworthy. 

The core problem lies not on the frontline but in the Kremlin because the issue is that the political strategy is not in sync with the real needs of the Russian military. The Kremlin demands that the military attack constantly in order to impress the rest of the world, but does not have sufficient economic backing for providing more and better weapons nor does it seem interested in actually learning the lessons of this war and then reflecting them in structural reorganization, from leadership to training to tactics. The result is more of the same: mass attacks by underarmed and undertrained soldiers who are slaughtered, which only serves to further discourage the rest of the population to sign up. The Ukrainians are grateful for this ineffective approach. JL 

Stavros Atlamazoglou reports in The National Interest:

Russia's attack has already cost the Kremlin 10,000 casualties, with little to show for it in territorial gains. Russia’s offensive will fail to achieve a breakthrough because the Kremlin has not addressed structural shortcomings, including the effectiveness of its armed forces, as well as the capacity of the country’s defense industry to match the insatiable demands of the conflict. The Kremlin’s constant pressure for offensive operations across the front does not sufficiently address issues of organization, tactics, and training. Russia is trapped in a vicious loop of repetitive frontal assaults and casualties. The type of warfare that could make a difference needs time, space, mobility and capabilities to pull off. But the Kremlin’s strategy does not allow these conditions.

Russia Steps Up Iran Aid To Salvage Damaged Repute Despite US Ukraine Risk

This past week, one of the US Air Force's valuable and strategically critical AWACs electronic early warning planes was destroyed by an Iranian missile while stationed at a Saudi air base. The targeting information on the plane is widely reported to have been provided to Iran by Russia. 

This incident is one of many recently in which Russia has directly confronted the US despite the Kremlin's desire to keep Trump on its side in support of its invasion of Ukraine. The reason for the change appears to be a desire to salvage what is left of its damaged reputation as a global power since the US has aggressively attacked countries in its network of alliances. The Russian diplomatic calculus is changing as its war in Ukraine has largely faltered and it looks beyond that to its broader standing in the world. It may still hope to keep Trump's tacit support, given his shared interest in authoritarian rule, but it may also be determining that the challenge to its standing is too severe and must be aggressively addressed, no matter the short-term regional impact. JL

Thomas Grove reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Russia has stepped up its support for Iran, its closest partner in the Middle East, providing satellite imagery and drone technology to help Iran target U.S. forces. Moscow is trying to salvage what’s left of its shrinking web of partnerships that once made it the world’s second-largest arms exporter behind the U.S., and a backer of dictatorships from the Middle East to Latin America. Earlier in Trump’s second term, Russia appeared reluctant to confront the U.S. directly as it tried to keep the Trump administration largely on the sidelines of the war in Ukraine (but) the increasing conflict between Trump’s expansive foreign policy and the Kremlin’s own footholds across the globe has triggered calls inside Russia to deal with the U.S. more aggressively. 

It's 2 Weeks Into Russia's Spring Offensive - But It's Ukraine Gaining Ground

It is, admittedly, confusing. Theoretically, when you launch an offensive, your troops are the ones who are supposed to gain ground, not your opponents.' But that is not what has happened this year in Ukraine. 

It is the Ukrainians who are gaining territory, not the supposedly attacking Russians. The reasons for this scenario are reported to be significantly strengthened Ukrainian defenses - including an effectively functioning 'drone wall,' decreasingly trained and motivated Russian troops who have now had four years to hear the rumors about what happens to soldiers in the Russian army forced to serve in Ukraine (none of it inspiring) and, that the Ukrainians anticipated where and when the Russian offensive would take place, so acted first and cut it off. As the article below suggests, Ukraine may now actually have the opportunity to start an irreversible decline of the Russian military. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Starting March 17, in a four day period, the Russians launched more than 600 assaults across the front. (But) Russian gains have been non existent, both during the last two weeks when they have been attacking, and before. Leading into March, the Ukrainians actually recaptured over 100 square miles of land. Many factors seem to be stopping the Russian offensive. The Russians have run into very well prepared Ukrainian defenses: minefields, fortifications, and, an increasingly effective drone wall. Soldiers (even more poorly trained and motivated than in the recent past) make bloody assaults for little/no gain. The tactics are resulting in such high losses and low morale that the casualties the Russians are suffering averaged over 1000 per day. Ukraine has a chance to put the Russian army into a spiral of decline out of which it will be hard to pull out.

Just 44% of US CFOs Plan AI-Driven Job Cuts As "Perception of AI Gains Larger Than Reality"

Despite the apocalyptic rhetoric emanating from corporate execs who have invested (too?) heavily in AI - as well as the VCs and tech bros hyping massive ostensible savings to justify the continued financial benefits they are reaping - the reality on AI-driven job cuts is, like so much else about AI, less than meets the eye. 

Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) who are charged with producing those magical savings and the related enhanced bonuses they are expected to generate are saying in surveys that less than half of them are planning major AI-related cuts this year and that one of the reasons is that "perceptions of AI gains are larger than the reality." This tracks with reports from Wall Street, from economists and from other industries desperately trying to find the there there. The CFOs are still reporting 502,000 expected cuts this year and while that sucks for those impacted, it is just 0.4% of total US jobs, so considered a rounding error, not the shattering new reality being promised. JL

Jake Angelo reports in Fortune:

Less than half (44%) of US Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) plan on-related job cuts. What that amounts to across the broader economy, is just 0.4%, or about 502,000 roles out of about 125 million roles, expected to be lost this year. Just about half of those job losses will come from the white-collar world. That 9x increase from last year’s 55,000 AI-attributed layoffs is but a rounding error against the overall workforce. (One reason for lower than expected layoffs) is a wide gap between perceived and actual productivity gains from AI, as they are finding perceptions of AI’s gains are larger than the reality. This reflects a delay in realized revenue. This reported lag matches what economists have been saying about AI’s productivity impact.

Complex, Multi-Axis Russian Kostiantynivka Assault Repelled With Heavy Losses

It doesn't seem to matter what sector, what time of day or who the defending Ukrainian brigades are: every Russian assault launched in the last two weeks as part of the so-called Spring Offensive has been repelled with heavy losses and destruction of equipment.

Even more so than previously, this does not appear to be the Kremlin's year, not that they would be willing to admit that. JL

Hromadske reports:

The Russians launched two “screened” tanks from Toretsk as a diversion, while three infantry groups attacked simultaneously from different axes. One group advanced near Ivanopillia, the second moved on motorcycles along the Pokrovsk highway, and the third was to approach along the railway. Ukrainian units destroyed one of the armored decoys and quickly eliminated the first two infantry groups using FPV drones and air-dropped munitions. The third group — described as “special forces” — fared the worst.

Kremlin Unable To Protect Crucial Baltic Oil Export Terminals, Hit 4 Times In 5 Days

Ukrainian drones and missiles have hit Russia's crucial - and largest - oil export terminals in the Baltic for four of the last five nights. Significant damage, including fires which have yet to be extinguished, have been confirmed by satellite imagery. 

The Ukrainian attacks not only further weaken Russia's export economic lifeline, but demonstrate that the Kremlin is incapable of protecting crucial energy infrastructure even as far away from the frontline as St Petersburg. JL

New Voice of Ukraine:

Ukrainian forces continued a series of long-range strikes on Russian facilities in the Baltic Sea overnight, marking the fourth attack on the aggressor’s oil infrastructure in five days. Satellite images show a large fire engulfing several oil storage tanks and producing black smoke at the Primorsk terminal and Ust-Luga port in Leningrad oblast. These are Russia’s largest export hubs on the Baltic Sea.  Russian milbloggers acknowledged prolonged Ukrainian strikes demonstrate significant vulnerability in Russian air defenses and sharply criticized Moscow for failing to develop air defenses capable of protecting oil infrastructure.

Russian Zaporizhzhia Armored Attack Destroyed By Ukraine Ronin Drone Unit

Russian forces again attempted an armored assault on Ukrainian positions on the outskirts of Robotyne (a village whose name is recognizable from the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive) in Zaporizhzhia oblast. As with all recent Russian attacks associated with its current failed 'spring offensive,' the Russian mechanized column was decimated with few survivors. 

What may be most notable about this is that the Russians continue to literally throw away troops and armored vehicles in assaults which have consistently proven to be very unlikely to succeed. JL

Dmitro Shumlianskyi reports in Militarnyi:

The Ronin Unmanned Systems Battalion of the 65th Mechanized Brigade, together with neighboring units, repelled a Russian column of over 10 armored vehicles attempting to break through Ukrainian positions. The Russian column, composed of armored personnel carriers and a tank, took part in the assault. The attack was detected and destroyed (before posing a serious threat). The Russian armored column was destroyed on the northern outskirts of of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region.