A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 25, 2026

New Russian Assaults At Kharkiv Oblast Border Repulsed With Bloody Losses

The Russians have not had much success in attacking Kharkiv oblast. That record appears to be holding as new Russian probes along the Kharkiv border between Russia and Ukraine have been bloodily repulsed by Ukrainian forces. JL

Elza Diachenko reports in Gwara Media:

Russian troops tried to break through a new sector on the Russia-Ukraine border in the Kharkiv oblast. Ukrainian forces killed Russian soldiers both on Ukrainian and Russia’s territory when their forces advanced toward the border. The Ukrainian border guards reported that Russian troops suffered severe losses last week during fighting in the Kharkiv region. 

Ukraine's War Momentum Is Drawing Investor Interest In Long Term Prospects

While Ukraine's success in innovative drone development and deployment have understandably garnered most of the attention, it is the potential they foreshadow that is now attracting investment from Europe, the US and other western investors.

Ukraine has leveraged its capabilities as the Soviet Union's industrial heartland, turning that capability into the engine that has driven its military achievements. But the country also sits on the largest natural gas deposits in Europe, has a skilled workforce, an entrepreneurial class and the potential to become a lucrative export economy, which is why investors are now trying to get in - even though the war is still raging - before the rest of the world takes notice. JL

Andrew Kramer reports in the New York Times:
The mood has shifted on the war in Ukraine, a sign of a more upbeat assessment among military analysts and businessmen of Kyiv’s prospects in the war and who view of Ukraine as a large postwar market on a path to European Union membership. The country’s long-term prospects are potentially lucrative. Ukraine holds one of Europe’s largest reserves of natural gas, with an estimated value of $300 billion. 160 agreements this year have netted Ukraine $11 billion in private investment and aid. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the largest institutional investor in Ukraine, announced more than 500 million euros, or $570 million, in new funding. The bank has invested 10 billion euros since the invasion in 2022.

Russia's New Tank Anti-Drone System Fails In Combat Debut With Ukraine

Russian forces have been struggling to come up with an anti-drone system to protect their armored vehicles, whose burned out hulks now litter the Ukrainian countryside. 

They thought they had a solution in the Arena-M, but a ten-tank column equipped with the system assaulting Ukrainian positions in Donetsk was struck by Ukrainian drones with no discernible assistance from the new protection. Back to the drawing board, comrades. JL

Vlad Litnarovych reports in United 24:

The  first battlefield appearance of a Russian T-72B3A tank fitted with the Arena-M active protection system—modified to counter FPV drones—failed. The Ukrainian Omega Special Operations shows an FPV drone striking the rear of the tank without any visible response from Arena-M, intended to detect an incoming threat with radar, track its approach, and launch a defensive projectile before it reaches the tank. Small drones can be difficult to distinguish from ground clutter at close range, particularly when flying low and approaching from irregular angles. Arena-M’s failure may point to shortcomings in the system’s radar and processing capabilities. It's algorithms may also struggle to track and prioritize objects moving slowly or unpredictably—behavior common among FPV drones as operators maneuver them toward weak points in a vehicle’s armor.

A Lyman, Ukraine Raid Wipes Out Russian 36th Motor Rifle Reg't Commanders

Ukrainian units have become adept at combining intelligence with drone attacks and special operations to target the headquarters of Russian units, eliminating commanders and their staffs. 

As in this case from the Lyman front, the Ukrainians were able to freeze the operations of an entire Russian sector because of the Kremlin's top heavy command structure, which does not permit initiative by junior officers without higher approval. Taking out an attacking regiment's command at Lyman also froze the regiments on either flank of it because they could not coordinate their actions, thereby giving the Ukrainians an opportunity to counterattack and disrupt the Russians' plan and delaying, once again, their hopes for advancing towards Lyman. JL

RFU reports:
After tapping into Russian communications, Ukrainian troops tracked the commander of Russia’s 36th Motor Rifle Regiment. They mapped his routine, waiting until he was exposed as a Ukrainian kamikaze drone hit his car 87 kilometers behind the front line near Dmitrivka. The commander was wounded and three staff travelling with him sustained injuries putting them out of commission, beheading the regiment with a single drone. This is damaging because Russian command remains highly centralized and junior officers have limited freedom to make decisions without approval from headquarters, paralyzing the regiment. If one regiment becomes static because its leadership has been removed, the formations on either side become exposed. Ukraine's strategy is to exploit this chaos, launching follow-on attacks before replacement commanders restore control, turning localized tactical successes into broader operational breakthroughs.

As Musk's Cybertruck Flops, Stock Tanks, Google Takes Stake In SpaceX

In the annals of automotive history, the car long considered the worst failure ever was Ford's Edsel, introduced in 1957 just as a recession hit, but also plagued by unpopular styling and poor quality. It's reputation as Detroit's biggest flop stood for over 50 years - until the Tesla Cybertruck came along. It also has styling not universally popular, a reputation for poor quality (see photo) and minute sales, which are getting even smaller. 

But that has not stopped Elon Musk. And even as SpaceX stock has done a round trip and is now lower than it was at its IPO launch, Google just announced that they are taking a multi-billion dollar stake in the company. At the least, the Goog appears to see an opportunity to pick up some assets and expertise quickly and cheaply, especially as demand for more data center capacity remains unabated. JL

C de Costa reports in Newsbreak and Katherine Hamilton reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The Ford Edsel became shorthand for corporate hubris and misread markets. The Cybertruck is earning a similar distinction. Musk promised a quarter-million Cybertrucks a year - Tesla delivered 8% of that target, then lost half of that. Q1 2026 delivered the truck’s worst quarterly performance since launch - just 3,519 units. Registration data indicate 20% of Cybertrucks sold in Q4 2025 went to companies owned by Musk - SpaceX and xAI. Bloomberg has made the Edsel comparison official, framing the Cybertruck as the biggest automotive flop of the EV era. SpaceX stock rose 19% to $135 on its first day of trading June 12, for a market value of $2.1 trillion. Its shares recently traded at $112.13. Based on SpaceX’s market capitalization of $1.52 trillion July 23, Google has a 6% stake. It has a long history of investing in SpaceX, discussing a rocket-launch deal to help develop orbital data centers

Jul 24, 2026

Ukrainian Dnipropetrovsk Offensive Retakes 7 Km, 6 Villages, Pushes Russians Back

The significance of this action may be primarily in its addition to other Ukrainian forces attacks and counterattacks at this point in mid-summer, all of which are contributing to the overall reality of lost Russian momentum and even capability to defend what they have. JL

Oleksy Leonov reports in Militarnyi:
Ukrainian forces carried out a successful offensive, defeating Russian troops in the Dnipropetrovsk region near the village of Filiya. The Ukrainian troops regained control of 6.7 km² of territory. The Ukrainian military liberated six villages in the Oleksandrivka sector of the Dnipropetrovsk region: Ternove, Zaporizke, Novogeorgievka, Vorone, Sichneve, and Maliivka.

With Gas Lines, Attacks on E-commerce, Russia's Middle Class Now Feels the War

The Kremlin has worked hard to convince Russia's relatively comfortable urban middle class that the invasion of Ukraine was none of their concern and would not affect their lives. But that was before Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and on the country's e-commerce hubs disrupted the once normal economy.

Now, a majority of Russians - 60% - say their economic conditions are worse. Not that anyone is feeling sorry for them, given what the Russian military have done to Ukraine. Welcome to the war your government started. JL

Alexander Osipovich reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukraine's long-range drone strikes have brought the war home to Russia’s middle class, with attacks on logistics hubs for the country’s biggest e-commerce company, Wildberries, a homegrown version of Amazon.com. Nine people were killed in the attacks, and total costs range between $3 billion and $4.4 billion. Most of that is due to the destruction of goods belonging to vendors. Less than two weeks before the attacks, the company amended its agreement with vendors to absolve itself of liability in the event of drone strikes.  Russian drivers have also been waiting for hours in huge lines at gas stations. Moscow's stock index lost one-quarter of its value this year, and last week sank to its lowest level since October 2022, after a selloff in government bonds. Between March and May, a record 60% of Russians told Gallup their economic conditions were worse. "Because of the lines at gas stations, because of the fires, everyone in Russia sees the war from their window.”