A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 23, 2011

Lactose Intolerance: California Milk Board Retracts PMS-Cure Ad Campaign


Ok, it is amazing that this ad campaign ever saw the light of day, but let's work our way backwards in a sort of geological dig to the bed rock of sheer lunacy.

Someone got paid to think up some concepts to advertise milk. So far, so good. After what must have been some truly inspired brainstorming (!) they presented their most creative: milk cures PMS and is therefore a guy's best friend. We're clearly on a roll here.

Then, the client decided that this was a really super idea. After all, the target audience was men (one assumes the Board believes guys should be shooting more of the white stuff than they do) so making a little joke at the expense of the opposite sex sounds like a plan. I mean, guys'll love it and who else is gonna notice? High fives all around.

Oh. That's right, there's no all male channel and ads are not invisible to women, so some of them might actually see the ad and object. Wow. Why didnt someone remind us of that?

How can anyone claim this economy is not booming? People are getting paid serious money to think up stuff like this - and then executives making big bucks approve it for public release. If these idiots can be employed, how can happy days not be here again? JL

Sheila Kumar reports in the Associated Press via the Huffington Post:
Responding to a wave of criticism, a California milk board on Thursday modified an advertising campaign that targeted men by promoting milk as a way to lessen the effects of premenstrual syndrome. Ad campaign spokeswoman Tatum Wan said it succeeded in promoting the board's message that milk can soften the effects of PMS symptoms.

"The new site is to help foster the conversation that came up as a result of the campaign that launched last week," she said. Some of that discussion was not entirely favorable toward the milk board, which posted a sampling of the responses on the campaign's website. A comment from Jezebel, a blog aimed at women, said "Telling men they're victims of PMS sure is an interesting way to sell milk," while a Facebook post read, "I'm a comedian and I'm not laughing."

Do Unto Others: Capitalism, Creative Destruction and the End of Borders Books

Irony abounds. Sad as the loss of jobs and another bookseller may be - and it is - rational people will recall that not so many years ago there was a huge outcry when Borders and its arch-rival Barnes & Noble drove hundreds of small, local booksellers out of business.

At that time, observers decried the loss in apocalytic terms. Now, in a scene reminiscent of some Star Wars film, even bigger monsters are devouring what was once thought to be an unslayable beast. And those same warnings and encomiums echo again.

Borders' demise has been variously ascribed to a loss of literacy, the internet generally and Amazon's not paying taxes.

But as Doug Mataconis reports in Outside the Beltway, Borders made a number of strategically ill-advised decisions over the years that weakened its market position and threatened its current and future cash flows. There is usually not, in business, any one event that leads to failure. Like the proverbial journey, it begins with small steps that eventually take it off course and down a very wrong path. JL:
The liquidation and eventual shuttering of the 40-odd year Borders Books chain, which became official with a Bankruptcy Court filing yesterday and a liquidation sale that started at all Border’s locations today has led to much reflection and commentary across the blogosphere, as well as a some disagreement as to whether the cause of Borders’ destruction can be attributed to the free market, or something else.

Stranger Than Fiction: The Science Behind Sci-Fi Movies


There is a reason they call it science fiction. And in most viewers' minds the emphasis has always been on fiction. But it turns out that Hollywood studios and enterprising directors are increasingly trying to incorporate real science into their films. The reason? The truth is sometimes more amazing than fiction - and therefore more exciting for reviewers and audiences. JL

The Science and Entertainment Exchange reports:
Whether it is a man dressing up as a bat to fight crime (Batman Begins), three mutants running a police department (Minority Report), or a man chosen to protect the universe using a ring (Green Lantern), the basic premises of most superhero and science-fiction movies can seem, well, silly. That is why Green Lantern director Martin Campbell challenged his production team to create a realistic, plausible (but fun) film. “Martin’s mandate was ‘There has to be a logic to the world that we create,’” explained Ozzy Inguanzo, researcher for Green Lantern. “We talked a lot about trying to bring the logic to the magic.”

Jul 22, 2011

Chinese Province Hears Biological Clock Ticking, Asks for One Child Policy Waiver

We were naive. We thought China had too many people, but boy, were we ever wrong!

Guangdong is the province closest to Hong Kong and is the source of most of the toys you find in cereal boxes, clothes you donate to charity events and electronics you buy for your 11 year old. Among other things. And they believe they are running out of workers. So the provincial government has petitioned Beijing for permission to allow more children to be born to families that are getting too much sleep at night or arent watching enough cartoons on TV.

To some, this sounds like a bunch of deviants with too much access to Viagra have gotten their hands on the wheels of power. We say hold the line, China! Dont give in. Before you know it, all those little nippers will want paid vacations and a BMW.

In the interim, we have a humble suggestion. Send some of that work back to places like Detroit or Liverpool. At the very least, those who get the jobs will figure out how to convert the income into real estate which they can then sell back to foreign investors - like you. JL

Fu Yanyan reports in Caixin:
Guangdong Province has called on the central government to adjust the one-child policy. The change in policy is intended to cope with the province's foreseen aging problem, a source with Guangdong's family planning commission told Caixin.

The provincial authorities of Guangdong recently submitted a proposal to the central government asking for the waiver of the one-child policy if only one of the parents is an only child. National laws currently permit families to have a second child if both parents do not have siblings.

The Times They Are A-Changin': Boomers Are To Nascar As Millennials Are to Soccer?

Ouch! Major diss. Nielsen is crunching data on how Boomers and Millenials differ with regard to brand affiliations.

The results are stark and confirm some lifestyle choices that are as ugly to read as they are to look at in person.

Millenials, that demographic group also known as Gen Y, are generally considered to have been born in the 1980s and 90s. Boomers? If you dont know who they are by now, just stay under that rock. Millenials claim affinities with trendy web-based brands like Google, Facebook and YouTube. Doritos do make an appearance on the list, but we all know that's for snacking while web-surfing. Boomers, to their eternal shame, appear to embrace brands most likely to induce cardiac arrest: Kraft, Nestle, Philadelphia Cream Cheese. Talk about a generational death wish.


As for athletes, there are some overlaps, primarily among NFL and Olympic sports. Note the heavy TV orientation there. But Millenials favor the NBA and soccer while for Boomers, six out their top ten are Nascar drivers. And we wonder about the reasons for the nation's crisis of obesity and lack of innovation...

Boomers, get off the couch! This is embarrassing. JL

Matt Carmichael reports in Advertising Age:
Earlier this week we learned that people of all political affiliations hear good buzz about Subway -- possibly starting the "Draft Jared" party in the process. Sorry, America. Today we'll dissect brand preference by age group. Not surprisingly, we see Subway making the list of brands boomers and millennials can agree on, although this is from an entirely different data set. The folks who compile the Nielsen/E-Poll N-Score, inspired by an AdAgeStat column on millennial migration, broke out their usual survey into a generational show-down of top brands and athletes.

Love the One Youre With: As Venture Investing in Web Grows, Cleantech Investing Slows


Investing can be sort of like high school: you get dumped by your first love (the web) so you hit on a lesser alternative (clean tech) until the first one comes back.

Venture investing data are confirming some worst fears in the clean tech industry: trend lines suggest that VCs were dabbling in clean tech because they didnt have anywhere else to put their money, not because they really believed in the economics. Now that social IPOs like LinkedIn and Zillow are putting up big numbers, the VCs are returning to their first love.

Despite brave statements to the contrary about the future of sustainable investing, the scale of returns from social media and related web investments simply dwarfs clean tech. On top of that, most VCs come out of electronic engineering and software design so that is what they know best, as well as what made them their money and reputations. This is not to say that clean tech will not have its day, but the data make clear that day is not today. JL

Katie Fehrenbacher reports in GigaOm:
Earlier this week figures from the latest MoneyTree report found that VC funding for web startups has reached a 10-year high. Contrast that with the latest funding figures from the Dow Jones VentureSource, out on Friday, which found that venture investment in the energy sector dropped by more than half.

Dow Jones reports that startups in the “energy and utility industry” raised $566 million in 29 deals, which was less than half the amount raised by energy startups in the second quarter of 2010. Clean-power companies were responsible for $540 million and 27 deals out of that total, according to Dow Jones. Clearly generalist venture capitalists that had dabbled in energy investing over the past couple of years have shifted away from energy.

Knockoff Nirvana: The Real Lesson of China's Fake Apple Stores

Counterfeit stores in China? Say it aint so! The reports of fake Chinese Apple stores have gone viral.

As if brand piracy and counterfeiting is news. You can get fake Gucci bags on any American city street corner. And for decades the Chinese have been internationally famous for ripping off western IP. So why the excitement?

The answer may be one part indignation and several parts titillation. The indignation comes from resentment of an economy that appears to be doing quite well, thanks, when much of the west is mired in economic malaise and serial debt crises. That is not going to go away. The titillation is an endorsement of the Apple brand's iconic position in the emotional shopper's value hierarchy. From hip Brooklyn-based programmers to Vanagon-driving suburban matrons, the iPhone or iPad is the coveted product du jour. So the evidence that 'a billion Chinese cant be wrong, ' as the saying used to go, reaffirms the owners choice and self-worth. There is also a touch of snobbery as in, I've got the real thing from the real source and all you can afford is a lousy knockoff.

But not to worry, the Chinese are not losing any sleep over this. Brand piracy is considered by many in China to be payback for centuries of abuse. The IP theft industry employs thousands. Though the stories may force some stores to close, they will quickly be replaced. And tonight you can casually place your iPhone on a restaurant table for all to see, secure in the knowledge that everyone who doesnt have one, wants one. JL

Abe Sauer reports in Brand Channel:
In what will come as a shock to nobody who has ever visited China, reports of fake Apple stores are flooding the web, sparked by a lone American blogger. The Associated Press, under the headline "Entire Apple stores being faked in China," reports that China had "reached a new piracy milestone — fake Apple stores."

Really? A milestone? This is the same country in which an entire mall dedicated to fake brand name stores opened in 2009. Knock-off Apple stores in China, meanwhile, have been reported as far back as 2007. More important than the fakeness of the Apple stores? Nobody there cares.

Jul 21, 2011

Latest Poll Results: Voters Down on Congress, Murdoch; Think God Did Pretty Good Job Creating the Universe. Truth.


Polling voters about God? Really? Ask me and I will send you the press release. The company, Public Policy Polling, is based in North Carolina so they have some legit God Cred, being from down there in the South and all.

But here's where it gets really interesting. Voters approve of God's performance by a 52-9 margin (I cant believe I am writing this), though those pouty, whiney younger voters think he/she has work to do on natural disasters. Meanwhile, voters disapprove of Rupert Murdoch by a 12-49 margin. The difference in those numbers is statistically insignificant. That means Rupert Murdoch is the di-rect inverse of God which must mean...he is the devil! QED. What would we do without data? JL

Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling: Press Release (hat tip Catherine Rampell):
Amid heated negotiations over raising the debt ceiling, Americans are
prepared to be more lenient in their evaluations of Congress; nevertheless, a majority still disapproves. Though Congress is hardly popular, it can take solace in that voters like Rupert Murdoch a whole lot less. With a phone hacking scandal engulfing News Corp, voters don’t appear to consider Murdoch an innocent party. Only 12% of voters hold a favorable oppinion of Murdoch compared to 49% who view him unfavorably. Unsurprisingly, those who identify as very liberal see Murdoch unfavorably, giving him a 9-60 rating, but even very conservatives don’t like Murdoch, rating him 23-27.

Though not the most popular figure PPP has polled, if God exists, voters are prepared to give it good marks. Voters approve of God’s performance by 52-9 margin, making God about as popular as Murdock is unpopular. When asked to evaluate God on some of the issues it is responsible for, voters give God its best rating on creating the universe, 71-5. They also approve of its handling of the animal kingdom 56-11, and even its handling of natural disasters 50-13. Young voters are prepared to be more critical of God on natural disasters with those 18-29 rating it 59-26 compared to 47-12 among those over 65.

Paychecks and Portents: US Consumers Increase Credit Card Use for Basic Necessities

Second time around? During the early 00s, consumers used credit to purchase homes, cars, big-screen TVs and other high price-tag vanity items.

They assumed the economy would bail them out and the housing bubble buttressed that illusion. Credit card processors are again reporting rising credit volumes, but this time the purchases are for basic necessities as the price of gasoline and food stretch income-constrained household budgets.

The challenge is that this signals further weakness for the economy. If credit cards are a last resort, experience tells us defaults and slowed spending are sure to follow. The write-off hit to banks and retailers is one thing. But with 70% of the economy driven by consumer spending, the omen is worrisome. JL

Advertising Age reports via Bloomberg News:
Consumers in the U.S. are increasingly using credit cards to pay for basic necessities as income gains fail to keep pace with rising food and fuel prices. The dollar volume of purchases charged grew 10.7% in June from a year ago, while the number of transactions rose 6.8%, according to First Data Corp.'s SpendTrend report issued this month. The difference probably represents the increasing cost of gasoline, said Silvio Tavares, senior VP at First Data, the largest credit-card processor.

"Consumers, particularly in the lower-income end, are being forced to use their credit cards for everyday spending like gas and food," said Mr. Tavares, who is based in Atlanta. "That's because there's been no other positive catalyst, like an increase in wages, to offset higher prices. It's a cash-flow problem." Rising costs of food and gasoline are leaving Americans less money to spend discretionary items, slowing the pace of the recovery, Mr. Tavares said. Household spending accounts for about 70% of the world's largest economy.

37% of Married People Say They Have Digitally Snooped On Their Spouses


"You have nothing to fear but fear itself," according to President Franklin Roosevelt. But he died over 65 years ago and did not have a PDA or Facebook account. With all the uproar over digital phone hacking by reporters, it turns out that the greatest odds of being snooped upon come from your spouse, your significant other or your parents.

Given what we have learned from the stories of celebrities like Tiger Woods, this behavior is unsurprising - except that the scale is impressive. A little simple math suggests that with a divorce rate of approximately 50%, a snoop rate of only 37% seems like it might be an endorsement of the marital institution's prospects. Time to go long on marriage-benefitted businesses like housewares, microwaveable pizza and lingerie. JL

Sarah Kessler reports in Mashable:
Targeted online advertising has left many people slightly creeped out by the many ways strangers collect their online data. But a new study suggests that strangers aren’t the only people who are likely to collect personal information without your notice.

The study, which surveyed more than 1,000 online individuals, found that the percentage of significant others, spouses and parents who admit to digital snooping is significant and — at least among romantic partners — on the rise. It was commissioned by consumer electronics search engine and review site Retrevo.

Is Facebook the New Iowa?

Prior to every election year in every country, jockeying begins to see which geographical region can garner the most candidate attention.

The powers that be claim to believe that all the press provides some sort of economic benefit. Skeptics might argue that the people who care about these things just like seeing themselves on TV.

In the US, the states of New Hampshire and Iowa have long held the first Presidential primaries. As small and rural regions with ageing, largely white and relatively affluent populations, they are about as utterly unrepresentative of the US as any area one could hope to find. But they do provide some sort of vestigial pull based on the nation's yeoman-farmer roots. That more than 50% of the US population is descended from people who immigrated after that misty morning in America matters not a whit. This is all about emotion.

But a trend is building that may either amplify that fact of political life or blow it away: the net - and social media in particular - are becoming crucial political battlegrounds.

As Hillery Nye comments in the Huffington Post, those who frequent Facebook Twitter, reddit and a host of other sites have already begun to see candidates emerging, strategies taking shape and debates raging. The question is how many minds are really being changed? Such sites tend to reinforce previous relationships or inclinations. They may simply serve as elecronic bullhorns for the already converted. Even shoppers tend to know what they are looking for. This election will witness the first serious measurement of whether uncommitted voters are being convinced through these media. It will be an important test of influence. JL:
The 2012 election is more than a year and a half away, and already the candidates are positioning themselves to take on what will undoubtedly be one of the most important battlegrounds -- social media. While Iowa and New Hampshire can bicker about which is more important to the early voting process, they are overlooking one crucial element: in another year they could both be diminished by an even earlier vote -- Facebook.

Facebook could very well replace Iowa and New Hampshire as the most important early voter forum in the primaries.

The High Cost of Underpaid Employees


Over the weekend, New York Times columnist Tom Friedman wrote that there is a 'sense of theft' in Egypt and Greece. Mr. Friedman acknowledges he chose to cover the crises in Europe and the Middle East rather than the debt crisis in the US. Had he made a different choice, he might have understood the depth of feeling in the US about the same problem.

Wages in the US have remained flat on an inflation-adjusted basis for more than 30 years. While productivity has risen due to technological innovations, there has been a concommitant rise in fraud, theft and even murder, the dreaded 'going postal' story. Research demonstrates that businesses achieve optimal operating results and stock price performance when employee interests are aligned with corporate strategy. That does not appear to be the current trend. Corporate profits are at their highest levels since the 1960s while CEO and financial services incomes relative to others are at levels last seen in the 1920s. And we all know where that led. JL

Harold Meyerson comments in the Washington Post:
If you’re wondering why American consumers are still flat on their backs, rendering the economy similarly supine, the answer is both fundamental and simple: It’s not just that so many of them are unemployed. The ones who are employed are also underpaid.

Don’t take my word for it — take that of Michael Cembalest, the chief investment officer of J.P. Morgan Chase. He asserted in the July 11 edition of “Eye on the Market,” the bank’s regular report to its private banking clients, that “US labor compensation is now at a 50-year low relative to both company sales and US GDP.”

Jul 20, 2011

Wall Street Prostitution Ring Busted: Distinguishing It From Normal Finance Business A Challenge

Imagine the confusion: first of all, who has jurisdiction, the NYPD or the SEC? And how can you tell who's committing a crime?

Or maybe more to the point, who ISNT committing a crime?

We have to admit that, to use one of Wall Street's favorite words, the 'symmetries' are legion: both businesses involve screwing people for exceptional profits while disdaining government intervention. And it sure beats jumping hotel chambermaids. So, hey, S&M, M&A... sounds like a deal. JL

Katya Wachtel reports in Business Insider:
17 people have been indicted on "on charges of running a high-end prostitution ring that catered to Wall Street clients who often spent more than $10,000 in a night," according to Reuters, via Zerohedge.

The illegal ring, which is called High Class NY, earned its overseers more than $7 million over a three year period. High Class operated 24 hours a day from Brooklyn, and catered strictly to "high-end customers coming from the financial markets."

Half a Loaf: The Price of Bread and Financial Security


There is a good reason why one of the most popular slang expressions for money is 'bread.' Bread's price reflects a complex chain of interactions that reliably reflect the economic security of a society. History tells us that revolutions are almost always the result of rising food prices. And no food is more central to most societies' well-being than this simple foodstuff.

Even in sophisticated western societies, the price of basic family commodities like bread and milk are a measure of whether prospects are strong or weak.

As Christian Parenti reports in Tom's Dispatch via Mother Jones, the Arab Spring - which has now morphed into summer - is as much a reflection of economic insecurity and political frustration. In the US and Europe, with their rapidly ageing populations facing life on fixed incomes, the price of bread is emblematic of broader forces in society that suggest a less optimistic future than many had been led to believe was their due. Whatever its cost, bread is a symbol of larger currents with political, social and economic implications. JL :
What can a humble loaf of bread tell us about the world? The answer is: far more than you might imagine. For one thing, that loaf can be "read" as if it were a core sample extracted from the heart of a grim global economy. Looked at another way, it reveals some of the crucial fault lines of world politics, including the origins of the Arab spring that has now become a summer of discontent.

Consider this: between June 2010 and June 2011, world grain prices almost doubled. In many places on this planet, that proved an unmitigated catastrophe. In those same months, several governments fell, rioting broke out in cities from Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, to Nairobi, Kenya, and most disturbingly three new wars began in Libya, Yemen, and Syria. Even on Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, Bedouin tribes are now in revolt against the country's interim government and manning their own armed roadblocks. And in each of these situations, the initial trouble was traceable, at least in part, to the price of that loaf of bread. If these upheavals were not "resource conflicts" in the formal sense of the term, think of them at least as bread-triggered upheavals.

Married Men Suffering Heart Attacks Get to ER Faster Than Single Men - Or Any Women

Comedians mocking marriage may have to change their routines. This raises questions as why societal norms are still so heavily weighted towards men.

It also leads one to ponder marriage benefits, the cost equations used in divorce proceedings and a host of related matters concerning civilization's historic predisposition towards matrimony. A survival mechanism: who knew? JL

Brahna Siegelberg reports in Slate:
According to a new study conducted by the Canadian Medical Association, married male heart attack victims arrive at the hospital, on average, half an hour before single men. The female victims arrived roughly at the same time regardless of marital status.

While it is no surprise that having a wife, who is likely on top of her partner’s physical health, will lead to quicker action, the question is why the same isn’t true for married women in similar situations. Do men simply not encourage their wives to take care of themselves?

Venture Funding of Web Start-Ups Reaches Ten Year High


"'Once the rockets are up who cares where they come down, that's not my department,' said Werner von Braun." Tom lehrer's satirical song lyrics about America's early space race antics are believed, by some, applicable to the current web-related investment scene.

2011 in on its way to being the sixth biggest all-time year for venture investing. Apple just blew by its quarterly earnings estimates with the tech press giddily declaiming to all who will listen that this is just the beginning. LinkedIn's IPO raised $7 billion and the debate rages about whether Facebooks' will be closer to $80 or $100 billion. This may not be a bubble but it sure feels like a market top.

The 'this time it's different' crowd is out in force. But one might be wise to remember that about ten years ago Cisco's CEO, John Chambers, insisted that the company anticipated exponential growth 'for the foreseeable future.' Quibble if you will about the fact that to sustain such growth the human race would have to colonize the rest of the solar system, but hey, if you weren't on the bandwagon, you just 'didnt get it.'

The ten year figure is interesting because the year the dotcom bubble burst? 2001. JL

Colleen Taylor reports in GigaOm:
Venture capital investments continued to grow at a rapid clip in the second quarter of 2011, with VC firms investing $7.5 billion across 966 deals, according to the latest MoneyTree report from (PWC)PricewaterhouseCoopers and the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA.) But some industry experts are saying that the current level of VC activity could be too good to be sustained.

The second quarter of 2011 saw the highest total amount of money invested by VCs since the second quarter of 2008, according to the MoneyTree report released this week. Quarterly venture capital investment activity increased 19 percent during Q2 compared to the first quarter of 2011, during which VCs invested $6.3 billion in 814 deals (click on image to expand).:

Homeowners in Denial About Property Values

Denial, as the saying goes, is not just a river in Egypt. Four years after the collapse of the US housing market homeowners are still having trouble accepting reality.

The facts are that housing prices remain depressed. Even those who bought after the crisis, thinking they had paid a reasonable price, are finding that the the market has come down even further since then.

The double whammy of unemployment, stagnating pay and reduced credit combined with too much housing inventory has reduced demand. It becomes a self-reinforcing cycle. The credit that fueled the boom in consumer purchases of all kinds was based on assumptions about increasing real estate values. That train is parked at the station and the engine is dead. Overly optimistic assumptions about values is the flip side to denial of this reality. This inspires a refusal to sell in hopes of better times, which in turn, is an obstacle to clearing the market and reinforces the pressure against new sales.

The good news, if it can be called that, is that the US economy before the fall had been derided - and properly so - as a bunch of people selling real estate to each other. That game is over. The sooner we write it off and move on, the sooner the economy will revive. JL

Ann Carrns reports in the New York Times:
Homeowners, especially those who bought their houses after the real-estate bubble burst, are still having trouble accepting just how much the values of their properties may have fallen, says a new report from the real-estate site Zillow.

Current sellers who bought their homes in 2007 or later, an analysis of the site’s home listings shows, are overpricing their properties by an average of 14 percent.

Jul 19, 2011

Brain Trauma: Army Tests Personal High Tech Impact Sensor


The incidence of brain trauma suffered by troops in Iraq and Afghanistan is overwhelming so the Army is testing new technology that will measure blast force to give medics a read on when brain injuries may have occurred.

As beneficial as this will be to the military, the application for civilian usage could not be more timely. Brain trauma has risen exponentially in sports and this technology could help trainers and coachs assess how badly hurt an athlete may be. While football, with its brutal hits, has gotten most of the attention, ice hockey, soccer, lacrosse, baseball and volleyball have also seen increases. Youth sports in particular are requesting help because research has shown that repetitive injuries create cumulative damage even at the youngest ages.

Through purposeful screening or serendipity, DARPA has a history of successfully identifying military technologies with civilian benefits. It appears they may have done so again. JL

Gregg Zoroya reports in USA Today:
The Army will outfit a brigade of soldiers in Afghanistan in the next few weeks with gauges worn on their bodies that can alert medics to an explosion's severity — proof of possible brain injury.

It is the beginning of an effort over the next several months to wire up soldiers and vehicles with sensors, black boxes and digital cameras. The data may shed light on how blast exposures damage the brain, even when a soldier appears only dazed, researchers say. An estimated 300,000 troops have suffered mild brain injuries, mostly from blast, in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Posh Spice Loves Literacy? Book Sales Up 123% After Beckhams Name Daughter For Author

So THAT was the problem! Pundits have been writing eulogies for the written word with increasing ferocity. Facing bankruptcy, Borders bookstores, one of the largest, closed just this week. The web, it had been pronounced, had driven reading into the netherworld inhabited by Civil War reenactors, trainspotters and square dancers.

But wait! There's a glimmer of light on the publishing horizon.

Victoria and David Beckham (aka Posh Spice and David Beckham...)named their brand new baby girl after Posh's favorite author (who knew?) and the book's sales went viral. So here's the marketing plan: every book gets assigned a celebrity reader and !bingo! so much for illiteracy. Business is just so damned simple sometimes. JL

The Daily Mail reports:
Sales of To Kill A Mockingbird have risen by an astonishing 123 per cent on Amazon.co.uk after David and Victoria Beckham chose to name their daughter after its author Harper Lee.

The novel, which was first published in 1960, rose to number 38 in the bestsellers charts after the power couple's naming of their little girl prompted fans to read the classic book. Talking about how they chose the name earlier this week, David said in a video on his Facebook page they had decided on Harper after Lee, who is Victoria's favourite author.

The Da Vinci Code: When 'Made In Italy' Is Really 'Made in China.' How Brand Piracy Came Home To Shanghai

The chickens are coming home to roost - in very expensive furniture.

After all the years of western exasperation with cheap Chinese copies of purloined product designs, irony abounds as the latest victims of product piracy are themselves Chinese consumers, and especially wealthy ones.

The DaVinci company sells extremely high end furniture to China's rich new business elite. They thought they were getting imported Italian furniture but it appears they were getting knock-offs made in China which were taken to a bonded warehouse in an import-export zone, relabled 'Imported' and then sold as Italian.


The issue for China, for the west and for global consumers remains that too many Chinese companies prefer to take the easy route to profits rather than invest in quality. The Chinese have grudgingly acknowledged that to compete in a global market they need to police their own, but the effort has been half-hearted. Many Chinese think the piracy is justified as a kind of national pay-back for centuries of western abuse and Chinese humiliation. That attitude is changing as China develops more pride in its own capabilities and products but the piracy remains. It is profitable and provides jobs so authorities frequently look the other way.

This scandal is embarrassing the government. If you are attempting to claim you are world-class - and that your currency should be a global reserve standard - protecting counterfeiters who are ripping off their own people as well as claiming the brand equity of important trading partners does not instill confidence. While it is amusing for many to see the Chinese gulled by their own tactics, the scandal undermines China's demand to be taken seriously. Trust lies at the core of such claims. The Da Vinci scandal demonstrates that it remains a too scarce as yet. JL

Abe Sauer reports in Brand Channel:
China really is picking up on this whole consumer culture thing. A scandal came to a head late last week as the head of Shanghai-based luxury furniture brand DaVinci melted down at a press conference in which she said allegations that it deals in counterfeit furniture — sold as "made in Italy" but in fact made in China — were false.

As the New York Times explains, "DaVinci furniture stores have been places where wealthy Chinese in (Shanghai) and five other big cities can indulge their appetite for imported luxury. Promoting itself as 'a haven for premium products,' DaVinci is the place to go for Versace sofas, sumptuous Fendi Casa calf-skin couches or stylish chaise lounges stamped Made in Italy. A DaVinci bedroom set can sell for $100,000."The scandal exemplifies how fragile the brand relationship is in China and how Chinese consumers are increasingly upset about counterfeiting

Tale of Two Techs: Facebook Ad Prices Soar More Than 74%, Cisco Cuts 11,500 Jobs


A rising tide is not lifting all boats. Facebook's ad sales show exponential growth while Cisco, once a tech analyst darling, is retrenching. What's going on here?

Despite reports of sluggish growth in signing new members, Facebook is benefitting from growth in Asia, Latin America and Africa where population increases and rising incomes offer the promise not available in Europe and the US. In addition, as more people seek their information and entertainment online, traditional media revenues are stuck on hold. They are not declining precipitously but neither are they growing.

Meanwhile, back at the new old economy where a few short years ago the future seemed so bright, Cisco is discovering that its ageing boy wonder John Chambers, may have wrung his last miracle out of what was once known as 'the networking giant.' Unfortunately for Cisco, THAT kind of network is no longer what analysts or customers are thinking about when they think about what the future may look like. It is a cruel irony that Cisco's early identification of the networked system led them down the hardware path and buys them no love in 2011. The lesson, as always in tech, is that a dynamic, competitive industry values agility and adaptability more than an installed base. Sort of like Risk - but played online rather than on a board. JL

Tim Bradshaw reports in the Financial Times:
The cost of placing ads on Facebook is rising rapidly as more big brands begin to move their television and print spending on advertising onto the world’s largest social network, two recent reports have revealed.The “cost per click” of an ad placed on Facebook has increased by 74 per cent over the last year in four of the world’s largest media markets, according to TBG Digital, an independent marketing firm specialising in social media.

The price of display advertising, charged per thousand “impressions” or ads seen, rose 45 per cent year-on-year, across the US, UK, France and Germany in the second quarter, TBG found. Facebook’s dominance of the social networking market and rapid growth in advertising revenues have prompted comparisons with Google.

Caregivers Provide $450 Billion In Unpaid Labor Annually

'He aint heavy, he's my brother.' Those lyrics, reprised by the Hollies and Neil Diamond among many others, have captured, for a generation, the notion of familial devotion and sacrifice.

However, as a new study from the AARP makes clear, the price of that devotional labor is almost half a trillion dollars annually.

Between 20 and 25% of the US population is caring for a relative in some fashion. Given societal norms, this is appropriate, even noble. Many families do not think of it as sacrifice. As government cutbacks continue, this burden is likely to increase. Programs designed to care for the elderly, infirm or for children with issues are being dismantled. Economic reality is the reason most often cited. However, the cost of time taken away from paid work also has a cost which is almost never factored into the efficiency calculations. The depletion of incomes, the lost time at work, the eliminated health care jobs, all subtract from savings and income calculations. As the nation contemplates how to renew its economy, failing to properly account for the responsibilities assumed by families or private charities that were once the province of government may be leading to a less than accurate result. JL

NPR via Alexander Eichler in the Huffington Post:
Family caregivers performed about $450 billion worth of unpaid labor in the U.S. in 2009, a new study from the AARP has found, according to NPR.

The combined economic value of adults helping other adults with the activities of daily living -- “such as bathing or dressing,” the AARP notes, or “managing medications or finances” -- was about $450 billion. There were about 42.1 million such caregivers active in 2009, meaning that the per-person cost was about $10,688 a year in lost productivity.

Jul 18, 2011

Sell Signal: MBAs Covet Technology Jobs Again


Yup, we've seen this story a couple of times before - and the ending wasnt ever pretty. So now that the bloom is off the banking rose, MBAs are affirming that they think their personally affluent future lies in tech. Shades of 2001? Yes, MBAs may be the proverbial canary in the economic coal mine. If this is where they see the future, you might want to consider some portfolio rebalancing.

First, this space believes we can probably all agree that the disillusionment with finance is not likely to be on moral grounds. Do the incipient Masters of the Universe believe their predecessors have sucked all the excess opportunity out of the financial ether? Could be. With the carcasses of Lehman, Bear Stearns and Countrywide littering the landscape and those pesky regulators insisting on capital ratios that might actually get investors paid sometime during their next incarnation, well, hell, you might have to work for a few years before cashing in. Where is the sport in that?

So with the prospect of all those mega social media IPOs gleaming on the horizon, the future in tech must look pretty juicy. To those with capital, the 'Bail Out' light is flashing. Time to think about real estate?JL

Joe Light reports in the Wall Street Journal:
M.B.A. students from top-ranked schools are increasingly naming technology firms as their most-desired employers, according to a new survey, recalling the fervor of a decade ago, when the dot-com boom attracted plenty of freshly minted business-school graduates.

Still, the top spot in the survey went to a consulting firm, according to employer-branding consultant Universum. When asked to pick up to five ideal employers out of a list of 170, about 29% of students named McKinsey & Co. and some 28% named Google Inc. Of the top 10, four were technology companies

Wireless Jobs Vanish

Do you know anyone who doesnt have a smart phone? Hard to believe that you do. Or, perhaps more realistically, anyone who hasnt gotten a new one in the last year? Hard to think of anyone in either category?

Agreed. If not actually true, it sure feels like the entire civilization is, as The Who once sang, 'going mobile.'

So that makes the employment stats particularly painful. If the US can not add jobs in one of its fastest growing, most technologically advanced industries, hope must surely be fading.

Not surprisingly, productivity enhancements tied to the very technology being sold has enabled manufacturers and sales organizations to manage the growth without increasing jobs. Economic theorists believe that these advances will eventually produce new businesses and jobs. The question is what they mean by 'eventually.' If you are out of work and having trouble paying the mortgage, that theoretical promise is cold comfort. In the past, government and business would invest in training and future growth. But, we have become a very now-focused economy. Whatever the current product demand, the concern is that refusal to invest in the future now may sap growth later.JL

Anton Troianovski reports in the Wall Street Journal:
The U.S. wireless industry is booming as more consumers and businesses snap up smartphones, tablet computers and billions of wireless applications. But for the industry's workers, the story is less rosy. In May, on the heels of a record year for industry revenue, employment at U.S. wireless carriers hit a 12-year low of 166,600, according to U.S. Labor Department figures released earlier this month. That's about 20,000 fewer jobs than when the recession ended in June 2009 and 2,000 fewer than a year ago.

While the industry's revenue has grown 28% since 2006, when wireless employment peaked at 207,000 workers, its mostly nonunion work force has shrunk about 20%.

Impulse Impact: Your Smartphone is Listening While You Watch TV


The familiar conflict confronts us: convenience versus privacy. We like the personal service but we resent the sense the intrusion.

So far, convenience has won big. The guess is that it will continue to do so. As a society, we do not appear to be in the mood for protesting much of anything. But as technology becomes even more powerful and convergence between technologies more dramatic, lines will be crossed and businesses will find themselves inadvertantly defending otherwise benign if sometimes annoying outreach.

Facebook has been dogged by privacy protests, but it is 'ancient' compared to newer services and the privacy notion was baked into its DNA. The challenge will be determining at what point 'the creepiness factor' kicks in: if 'they' know this much about what I am doing right now, who else knows and how do I feel about that? A business never wants to be 'they,' it wants to be one of 'us.' JL

Kunur Patel reports in Advertising Age:
You're sitting on the couch with the TV on and phone in hand. As a commercial starts, a smartphone app hears what you're watching. It then serves up links, coupons or music downloads corresponding to what it hears on the tube through smartphone microphones. So if you tend to impulse buy, the next time you're watching one of those late-night infomercials you might want to set your phone aside.

In recent months, logos for music-identifying service Shazam have popped up in Procter & Gamble, Honda or American Express commercials. Progressive Insurance, Starbucks and Paramount have also linked to mobile content through Shazam tags in their commercials or web videos. The ads prompt viewers to launch Shazam with the company's logo or a call-out, and if they do, the app brings up links their websites, discounts or other goodies.

The Casablanca Treatment: Why Wall Street Analysts And Economists Have This Recovery Wrong

It's right out of the movie 'Casablanca.' New economic figures are released almost weekly citing continued unemployment and weakened demand.

A chorus of economists and Wall Street analysts then reprise Claude Rains (the movie's French policeman) who professes to be "shocked, shocked I tell you," as his eyebrows arch in a cynical smile.

As Barry Ritholtz comments in the Washington Post, the problem is that the investment pros are looking at the wrong context. Analysts continue to assess this stalled recovery in the context of a 'normal' boom and bust cycle. But it was not. This was a credit bust. There are no roads or buildings or internet companies left in its wake. Just lots of lost investments and plenty of debt. That is why the t-shirt phrase, 'I ruined the economy and all I got was this lousy tax cut' is so popular. Cutting government is not going to solve the problem and neither are further tax cuts.

Some politicians are reprising Rhett Butler's line from 'Gone With the Wind,' "Frankly, my dear, I dont give a damn." That wont help either. The combined impact of demands that any stimulus end with declining condfidence in the financial sector is reminiscent of the sign so often seen in discount stores: 'You Break It, You Own It.' JL:
The recession is well behind us now, and Wall Street seems to think this recovery should be all wrapped up. Consider this: The federal non-farm jobs report for June was pretty awful. The private sector created 57,000 jobs. Federal, state and local governments cut 39,000 positions (the eighth straight monthly decrease in government employment). We picked up a mere 18,000 net new jobs. Not a single forecaster in Bloomberg’s monthly survey of 85 Wall Street economists got it anywhere close to right. The most common reaction was “surprise.” That any professional can sincerely claim to be surprised by continued weakness — in employment, GDP or retail sales — was the only revelation.

Let’s put the number into context: In a nation of 307 million people with about 145 million workers, we have to gain about 150,000 new hires a month to maintain steady employment rates. So 18,000 new monthly jobs misses the mark by a wide margin. Why have analysts and economists on Wall Street gotten this so wrong? In a word: context. Most are looking at the wrong data set, using the post-World War II recession recoveries as their frame of reference.

Jul 17, 2011

Bondage Without Discipline: Goldman Sachs' New Advertising Campaign


Self promotion is perfectly legal. So is the advertising on steroids known as 'puffery,' which is a polite phrase for noting that your claims might be stretching the truth just a tad.

Goldman Sachs has begun advertising as part of its reputation repair campaign. After several years of being called The Vampire Squid of Wall Street, the firm is attempting to accomplish the rather forbidding task of convincing the world that they are really on the side of the little guy. While it has not - yet - hired cheerleaders, there is a self-congratulatory quality to the campaign.

Whether this will work with the common man (and woman) remains to be seen. But the tactic may really be intended to provide cover for all of the politicians who have done the firm's bidding. Whatever the strategic goal, it is a basic tenet of reputation and brand building that there should be a strong correlation between an ad's claims and actual performance.

Constantine von Hoffman reports in BNet. JL:
Why is Goldman Sachs (GS) running advertising? Further, why is it making such a flagrantly bogus claims in its advertising? Last September the Vampire Squid of Wall Street started running ads about how the company’s financing was helping local companies give money to people who don’t work for Goldman Sachs. The most recent iteration in this campaign is about how a new sports stadium in Louisville, Ky., is “helping revitalize downtown business.”

This last claim is so patently false it shows how desperate GS is for anything to prove it provides some value to society beyond creating a market for servants.

Food Prices Affect Your Weight


We are continually torn between vowing to exercise more and eat healthier -but then succumbing to temptation. A new US Agriculture Department study suggests that food pricing plays a role in our decision-making. Unhealthy food gets less expensive while healthy food, particularly fruits and vegetables, get more costly.

The opportunity, according to the study, is that changes of just a few cents can affect consumer purchase decisions.Authorities continue to remind us that eating greens, nuts and other natural products is better for us. And sales of organic products have skyrocketed. But people who shop in dollar stores do so for a reason - and are unlikely to be found in Whole Foods.
Morgan Clendaniel reports in Fast Company on the relationship between food costs and health, suggesting that decreasing the price of foods that are good for you might be more effective than taxing foods that are not. JL:
That Americans don't eat as healthy as they could isn't a surprising fact. But it turns out that tiny economic shifts can make that problem worse, or make it better. Just a few cents difference in price can make unhealthy foods--sodas, sugary snacks--either more appealing or less appealing and has a measurable effect on people's weight. And cheaper prices on healthy foods make people skinnier, even if bad-for-you foods stay the same price.

A new report from the USDA looked at the body mass index (BMI) of children and how it changed in response to food prices. Unsurprisingly, if prices increased 10% for soda, children's BMIs dropped .42%. That's 50% of a 8-year-old's normal weight gain for a year. That seems like a fairly large argument for a soda tax, but the study also found that helping people buy healthy food may be even more effective than penalizing them for buying unhealthy food.