A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 26, 2020

Is This the End of the Global Economy As We Know It?

The global economy depends on trust.

But between China's failures to honestly report the health crisis and the US's failure to act sensibly and effectively - in addition to already concerning behaviors from both - belief in the two largest global economies has collapsed. The question is whether the web of interdependence is too crucial to unwind or whether survival dictates that an alternative is required. JL


Neil Irwin reports in the New York Times:

Crises bring to the fore issues that are easy to ignore in good times. One candidate is globalization, in which companies can move production wherever it’s most efficient, people can hop on a plane and go anywhere, and money can flow to wherever it will be put to its highest use. A world economy with the United States at its center was already falling apart. There are signs Covid-19 crisis is cementing those changes. Trade as a share of global G.D.P. peaked in 2008 and has trended lower ever since. “There will be a rethink of how much any country wants to be reliant on any other country.”
When big convulsive economic events happen, the implications tend to take years to play out, and spiral in unpredictable directions.
Who would have thought that a crisis that began with mortgage defaults in American suburbs in 2007 would lead to a fiscal crisis in Greece in 2010? Or that a stock market crash in New York in 1929 would contribute to the rise of fascists in Europe in the 1930s?
The world economy is an infinitely complicated web of interconnections. We each have a series of direct economic relationships we can see: the stores we buy from, the employer that pays our salary, the bank that makes us a home loan. But once you get two or three levels out, it’s really impossible to know with any confidence how those connections work.
And that, in turn, shows what is unnerving about the economic calamity accompanying the spread of the novel coronavirus.
In the years ahead, we will learn what happens when that web is torn apart, when millions of those links are destroyed all at once. And it opens the possibility of a global economy completely different from the one that has prevailed in recent decades.
“As much as I hope we are able to get ordinary economic activity back up, that’s just the beginning of our problem,” said Adam Tooze, a historian at Columbia University and author of “Crashed,” a study of the extensive global ripple effects of the 2008 financial crisis. “This is a period of radical uncertainty, an order of magnitude greater than anything we’re used to.”
It would be foolish, amid such uncertainty, to make overly confident predictions about how the world economic order will look in five years, or even in five months.
But one lesson of these episodes of economic tumult is that those surprising ripple effects tend to result from longstanding unaddressed frailties. Crises have a way of bringing to the fore issues that are easy to ignore in good times.
One obvious candidate is globalization, in which companies can move production wherever it’s most efficient, people can hop on a plane and go nearly anywhere, and money can flow to wherever it will be put to its highest use. The idea of a world economy with the United States at its center was already falling apart, between the rise of China and America’s own turn toward nationalism.
There are signs that the Covid-19 crisis is exaggerating, and possibly cementing, those changes.
“There will be a rethink of how much any country wants to be reliant on any other country,” said Elizabeth Economy, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “I don’t think fundamentally this is the end of globalization. But this does accelerate the type of thinking that has been going on in the Trump administration, that there are critical technologies, critical resources, reserve manufacturing capacity that we want here in the U.S. in case of crisis.”
Consider just a few pieces of evidence for the weakening underpinnings of globalization.
France’s finance minister directed French companies to re-evaluate their supply chains to become less dependent on China and other Asian nations. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has said it will seize exports of certain medical supplies. And on Friday, Senator Lindsey Graham suggested that the United States should punish China for failing to contain the virus by canceling debt the Chinese government owns — a step that would risk the role of U.S. Treasury bonds as the bedrock of the world financial system.
Even before the coronavirus hit, the limits of globalization were becoming clearer.
Trade as a share of global G.D.P. peaked in 2008 and has trended lower ever since. The election of President Trump and the onset of a trade war with China had already made multinational companies start to rethink their operations.
“I think companies are actively talking about resilience,” said Susan Lund, a partner at McKinsey who studies global interconnectedness. “To what extent would companies be willing to sacrifice quarter-to-quarter efficiency for resilience over the long term, whether that’s natural disasters, the climate crisis, pandemics or other shocks?”
She envisions not so much a full-scale retreat from global trade as a shift toward regional trade blocs and greater emphasis on having companies build redundancy into their supply networks. Governments will probably insist that certain goods, like pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, rely more on domestic production given the current global scramble for those items.
China has reoriented its economic strategy, aiming to be not a low-cost manufacturing hub for the world but the maker of technologically advanced products like aircraft and telecommunications equipment. That has made Americans, Europeans and the Japanese all the more reluctant to have major operations in China, for fear of intellectual property theft.
Under the Trump administration, the United States has experienced strain with even traditional allies in Western Europe. Put it all together, and a more every-nation-for-itself mentality was already becoming ingrained before Covid-19, in ways the pandemic seems to be reinforcing.
“What typically happens after you get a crisis like this is people talk about new eras and how the post-pandemic world will be different,” said Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “This time I think the trends that were already in motion before this pandemic will be accelerated.”
In a past episode of de-globalization — the unwinding of global commerce that took place amid World War I and the 1918 flu epidemic — there was also a remaking of the global financial system, with the British pound losing its pre-eminence.
That kind of thing could plausibly happen this time too, but initial signs point the other way: toward the dollar’s becoming even more entrenched at the center of the global financial system.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has opened swap lines with 14 overseas central banks — which enables them to pump dollars into their domestic banking systems — and started a novel program that lets other countries obtain dollars by pledging Treasury bonds as collateral. Those moves are helping ensure that a global dollar shortage doesn’t paralyze the world economy.
European officials have been reluctant to take steps that would make the euro more central to the world currency system, such as issuing bonds that are jointly guaranteed by the countries of the eurozone. And China has, if anything, been reluctant to remake its financial system in ways that could enable the renminbi to become more crucial to world commerce, such as allowing free capital flows in and out of the currency.
Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, delivered an influential speech to fellow central bankers last August arguing that the current international monetary and financial system, with its deep dollar dependence, was unsustainable. But the pandemic may be entrenching that flawed system.
“The dollar system is inherently unstable, but so is a bicycle,” said Mr. Tooze, the historian. “They’re unstable, but if you’re a skilled rider of them, they’re great. And the Fed has demonstrated it’s a skilled rider of the dollar hegemony bike.”
At times over the last 12 years, it has felt as if the world were reliving the period of 1918 to 1939, but as if told by a forgetful student who was getting the events out of order. That era also featured a global financial collapse; a rise of authoritarian governments; the emergence of a new economic superpower (the United States then, China now); and a pandemic, though not in that sequence.
We may not know exactly where this crisis will lead, for the world economy or anything else. But one thing seems clear: History sure can be scary when you don’t know how it ends.

30 comments:

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MARIA PEREZ said...

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smith32 said...


I started trading with COINSFM and I have deposited over $128K in total over a 4 month period and my account was about 220k at the best. of course i should have withdrawn when at the top. Most money was won by the help of my Account Manager named David Garcia and in background was the Senior Account Manager Oliver Martin. One Thursday evening, David contacted me after a long break and stated now was the time to make some real money again. After about 4 – 5 hrs the result was a loss of everything except an active trade on XRP worth 80k. I then agreed a recovery plan with Oliver Martin stupid as I was. This plan should be a very low risk plan based on weekly coin buying. The recovery looked promising until Martin introduced me to a total maniac with the name of Rothschield which he claimed would help me get my account back on top. After 2 hours of trading the account was empty again with the exception of a long term stock trading. All in all I’m an idiot trusting these guys. I am 100% sure that I was targeted the day I made my first deposit. When they felt that I was empty (no more to deposit) they decided to strike and did their best to empty the account.

I learnt the hard way, all my savings was gone in a flash. They milked me for all my savings and showed some real good money to convince me. I tried to report to my bank and i was told that it was too late and there’s nothing they could do. The journey on recovery started, I tried few online company that i believed they could help with the law but it was all a failed attempt. Luckily for me, i found a hacker named cyber demon on google talking about forensic investigation and asset recovery. i was very careful not to fall for a second scam. I asked him all the possible questions till i was convinced then i decided to try since you miss every opportunity you don’t take. A couple of weeks later, I was told to send my account details and i got my money back. Reach out to cyberdemonhacker432@gmail.com for asset and btc recovery

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Unknown said...

Hello everyone, Do you need hacking services? . please contact= WIZARDBRIXTON@GMAIL.COM
Be warned, most of these hackers called here are imposters, I know how real hackers work, they never advertise in such a gullible way and they are always discreet. I was tricked so many times out of desperation trying to find urgent help to change my grades from school, finally my friend introduced me to a group of trusted hackers who work with discretion and delivery promptly, they do all sorts of hacking that you be be shock to believe
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Contact them at= WIZARDBRIXTON@GMAIL.COM

Alex said...

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mike said...

I just have to introduce this hacker that I have been working with him on getting my credit score been boosted across the Equifax, TransUnion and Experian report. He made a lot of good changes on my credit report by erasing all the past eviction, bad collections and DUI off my credit report history and also increased my FICO score above 876 across my three credit bureaus report you can contatc him for all kind of hacks . Email him here via Email him here via hackintechnology@cyberservices.com or whatsapp Number: +1 213 295 1376.

Yerins Scott said...

Most of these so called hackers are imposters, I’ve been ripped off a couple times before i luckily got a reliable contact his name is Jimmy . A hacker that works with discretion and does all sorts of hacks, I would prefer to let his services speak for itself, if interested in getting your credit score increased, erasing DUI, breaking into credit bureaus, clearing bankrupcies(depends on amount) etc you can contact him at thejimcybertechAtgmailDotcom You surely will thank me!!

MARIA PEREZ said...

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I was completely in debt and unsure what to do with my life until I discovered the darkweb site TheHackerspro.com on the internet, which had excellent testimonials in many blogs about credit restoration and how good the organization is.
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Bloomberg Incorporations said...

IS IT POSSIBLE TO GET A SUCCESSFUL RECOVERY OF YOUR FUNDS LOST TO FAKE/ILLEGAL CRYPTO WEBSITES OR ANY ONLINE FRAUDSTER/ FRAUDSTERS?
ABSOLUTELY, YES!

☣️BEWARE OF FRAUDSTERS looking to hoax.
If you have had an encounter with any of the following fraudulent schemes; fake brokers, fake bitcoin investment platforms, forex trade, binary option, false investments proposals. If you have been a VICTIM, you are reading the right post 👍🏻

BLOOMBERG Inc. is a group of international cyber security specialists bound by one sole aim, which is to render state of the art services involving ethical hacking.

Ladies and gentlemen, I must warn you that the internet isn't quite a safe haven, as consistent research has found out that 62.24% of people you interact with on the net do not exist. Hence, you must trade with caution ⚠️. For this reason, Bloomberg Incorporation was founded in the year 2005 and ever since have been trending for successfully carrying out various hacking jobs.

🔹OUR SERVICES🔹
☑️Binary Option funds recovery
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And lots more.

DISCLAIMER: Bloomberg Incorporations accepts no responsibility for any information, previously given to anybody by clients on as regarding the job. Bloomberg Inc. will not distribute contact information collected on any hacking job other than in the Bloomberg Hacker's listings themselves, and will not sell contact information to third parties.

Your happiness is our priority!

CONTACT INFO:
📧bloomberghackers@gmail.com
📧exploithackersinn@gmail.com
WhatsApp🤳: +1 (336) 582‑0239‬

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Bloomberg Incorporations 2021.
All rights reserved.

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