Using AI To Analyze Coronavirus Data

The objective is to analyze the masses of data and experimentation in order to reach actionable conclusions as quickly as possible. JL


Tom Temin reports in The Federal News Network:

Nine organizations formed a coalition to bring together coronavirus data sources and researchers who can apply data analysis and AI to it. Computing resources are being provided by Microsoft, Lawrence Berkeley Labs and at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications to apply AI to mitigate COVID-19. These are genome- specific medical protocols predicting the course of the disease: clinical trials modeling prediction of COVID-19 propagation, aggregating resources from the most accomplished data scientists, bioengineers, biologists, including those at CDC and and NIH, to focus on logistic and optimization analyses for public health strategies and interventions

The Eight Types of People We Become On Zoom

Some of them occasionally bear a resemblance to real humans. JL

Roger Sherman reports in The Ringer:

There are differences between seeing people in real life and seeing them in tiny boxes on a screen. While Zooming with our friends reduces the solitude of social distancing, the limitations of the format can shape our conversations in unexpected ways. We act … differently on social video calls than we do in person, sometimes in ways that surprise us. These are the eight types of people we become on Zoom.

How People Are Using the Internet Differently While In Self Isolation

People want real news, the more local and factual the better. 

Not opinion, rant, cant and slant. JL


Ella Koeze and Nathaniel Popper report in the New York Times:

Now that we are spending our days at home, with computers close at hand, Americans appear to be remembering how unpleasant it can be to squint at those little phone screens. Facebook, Netflix and YouTube have all seen user numbers on their phone apps fall off. Among the biggest beneficiaries are local news sites. Americans have also been seeking out established media for information on the health crisis and economy. CNBC  has seen readership skyrocket. Websites for The New York Times and The Washington Post have both grown traffic 50% (while) curbing interest in opinionated takes from partisan sites. Fox News has posted disappointing numbers. 

Why Some Food Delivery Companies Are Benefitting From Lockdowns More Than Others

Geographic exposure, as opposed to virus exposure, becomes an issue.

But 30% of deliverers admit to sampling from customers orders? We'll be hearing more about that. JL

Laura Forman reports in the Wall Street Journal:

30% of food deliverers admit to sampling food from an order. Amid today’s pandemic, the number of germ-infested touchpoints involved in a grocery store visit may be even more paralyzing for consumers. As social distancing increased by late March, food delivery spending for the four largest players was up 10% collectively. The choice has benefited some delivery players more than others. Spending on Uber Eats and DoorDash climbed 24% and 10%, versus the previous week. Spending on Grubhub fell because of its disproportionate exposure to New York City.

Which US Areas Are Most Vulnerable To Hospitals Being Overwhelmed By Covid-19?

There are more than most experts would have thought possible. And they're not always where expected.

Which is why experts are concerned about claiming the danger is over too soon. JL

Amy Brittain and colleagues report in the Washington Post:

More than half of the nation’s population lives in areas less prepared than New York City. The analysis key metrics: hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilator usage in a year-long scenario in which the coronavirus sickens 20% of U.S. adults, and 20% of those infected require hospitalization. Under that scenario, 11 million adults would need hospitalization for two weeks, and 2.5 million require intensive care. 30% of the adult population live in areas where the number of ICU beds would not be enough. For ventilator availability, half the adult population lives in regions where demand would exceed supply

Will Immunity Passports Eventually Get People Out Of Lockdown?

Emphasis on the word 'eventually.' There is not yet enough data on what infection looks like, let alone what immunity might be, especially as places once considered 'safe' are beginning to show signs of infection uptick again.

So the best answer is maybe - and not soon. JL


Neel Patel reports in MIT Technology Review:


Knowing whether someone is immune (and eligible for potential future certification) hinges on serological testing, drawing blood to look for signs of these antibodies. Get a positive test and, in theory, that person is now safe to walk the street again.(But) there are serious problems with trying to use tests to determine immunity status. We still know very little about what human immunity to the disease looks like, how long it lasts, whether an immune response prevents reinfection, and whether you might still be contagious. Immune responses vary greatly between patients, and we don’t know why. Because we don’t know what the real infection rate is, 1%, 3%, 5%,we don’t know what proportion of the immunity passports would be issued incorrectly.

Social Distancing Enforcement Drones Come To the US

The drones are not programmed to shoot violators. At least so far. JL

Adam Raymond reports in New York Magazine:

In January, a video from China showed people outside getting scolded by a disembodied voice from a drone flying overhead. Flying robots have made their way to the U.S., with at least two American police departments deploying drones to tell people to disperse, go home, and stay there. “Summonses HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE to be issued to those found in violation. Fines are up to $1000. You have been advised.”

The Global Effort To Build A Privacy-Protected Covid-19 Track and Trace App

There is optimism that the technology can be created. The question is whether it can be finished in time. JL

David Ingram and Jacob Ward report in NBC News:

Coronavirus tracking apps already exist in China, Singapore, Israel, but the lack of privacy protections worries many in the U.S. and Europe. A dozen clusters of experts, in cities including Seattle, London and Lausanne are working on smartphone-based tracking to provide app notifications to people exposed to the virus and need to isolate.The hope is that smartphone tracking combined with testing can create a framework for cities to let people resume their lives while keeping a close watch on a resurgence of the coronavirus.

The Reason Amazon's Definition of 'Essential' Keeps Shifting

People are buying, so Amazon is selling. Whatever that may mean for the health of its workers. JL

Maddy Varner reports in The Markup:

On March 17, Amazon informed U.S. sellers that it would no longer accept nonessential products at its warehouses. Amazon defined essential loosely. Since that announcement, Amazon has quietly relaxed its definition of what is essential, broadening the list of new shipments it would accept, on an unspecified “item-by-item” basis. Amazon’s  increase in sales has been compared to major shopping events like Black Friday. As of April 6, in the United States, you could order a bowling ball, a 10-pack of rubber chickens, and a prom dress and have them show up at your door within a week.

Why Investors and Business Groups Recommend Keeping Workforce Employed

As data suggest infection peaks are being reached in even the hardest hit areas of Europe and the US, groups of institutional investors and businesses are recommending that layoffs and furloughs be stopped in order to make the rebound faster and larger from the virus-associated recession. JL


Larry Light reports in CIO magazine:

Employers should keep workers on the job despite the coronavirus-imposed shutdown of many businesses, urged an institutional investors group. This sentiment, not long ago greeted with eyerolls in the corporate world, may be getting traction.The 195-member group, comprised of public pensions, asset managers, and faith-based funds, controls $4.5 trillion in assets.

How San Francisco Plans To Trace Every Virus Case and Contact

The City is partnering with the University of California at San Fransisco (UCSF) to identify everyone who has tested positive and their contacts.

The reason is that their early success in self-isolating means a majority of citizens are not yet immune and could be infected in a second wave. During the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1919, more people were killed in the second wave than in the first. JL


Kristen Sze reports in ABC News:

San Francisco has formed a task force to interview and trace the interactions of all people who test positive for COVID-19. UCSF is partnering with the city in this effort, one of the first in the U.S. A team of 150 people will make phone calls, text, track people, and ask them to come in for testing. Contact-tracing is especially important in the Bay Area because success slowing the spread through early shelter-in-place means a large portion of the population has not yet been exposed and is not yet immune, so could be hit hard in a second wave.

Borders Didn't Stop the Pandemic, But They Might Block Trade In Medical Supplies

In a deeply intertwined global supply chain, seizing supplies of medicine and equipment destined for other countries will come back to haunt whichever nation does it. JL


Camila Domonoske reports in National Public Radio:

As of March 21, 54 governments had placed limits on exporting medical goods. It may backfire. An economic incentive for countries to become more self-sufficient should be measured in months. "You're going to impose a limit on what you sell to us? We're going to restrict our exports to you of gloves. Or gowns. Or thermometers." Countries could also restrict access to essential materials, like pulp for surgical masks or parts for ventilators. With supply chains intertwined around the globe, it's impossible to "manipulate supplies and trading partners without shooting yourself in the foot."

How Will A Nation Know When It's Time To Reopen?

Social engineering for optimal outcomes requires good data and intelligent application of the insights gained from the information gleaned. It means that there is a process in place both to identify and to assess the means by which those outcomes may be achieved.

So the answer to the question is dependent on gathering data, monitoring behavior and acting according to the interpretation of that attendant knowledge. JL


Aaron Carroll reports in the New York Times:

Everyone wants to know when we are going to be able to leave our homes and reopen. That’s the wrong way to frame it. The better question is: How will we know when to reopen the country? Hospitals must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care. A state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms. The state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts.There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.

AI Predicts Where Covid-19 Will Strike Next

The system uses vetted social media posts to track reports of symptoms, positive tests and hospitalizations, allowing medical authorities to plan and allocate scarce resources. JL

Thomas Macaulay reports in The Next Web:

An AI has predicted which areas of the UK will suffer spikes in coronavirus cases next by analyzing social media posts about COVID-19. It predicted outbreaks between 7-13 days before these areas had spikes in coronavirus cases. In the US, Dataminr forecast outbreaks in 14 different states. Seven days after the company published its predictions, all had been hit hard by the pandemic. The system finds unique posts from individuals indicating they have coronavirus symptoms, have tested positive or been exposed. It includes first-hand accounts of confirmed cases from  relatives, friends, and coworkers.

How Microsoft Will Use AI To Filter Dogs Barking and Other Video Call Noises

As many people are learning the hard way on group video and conference calls, real time noise suppression technology could be a significant competitive differentiator. JL

Emil Protalinski reports in Venture Beat:

We’ve all been there. How many times have you asked someone to mute themselves or to relocate from a noisy area? Noise suppression AI will remove the background noise in real time so you can hear only speech on the call. The use of video conferencing tools is exploding as the coronavirus crisis forces millions to learn and work from home. Microsoft is pushing Teams as the solution for businesses and consumers as part of its Microsoft 365 subscription suite. The company is leaning on its machine learning expertise to ensure AI features are one of its big differentiators.

Why Are People Requiring More Proof For Masks Than Hand-Washing?

Masks generally bear a cultural stigma. They infer that the user has something to hide and that whatever situation requires them is threatening. That would run counter to early hopes that Covid-19 would be just a Chinese or Italian problem. 

But we are learning the hard way that underestimating this disease is a serious mistake and that in the steps needed to avoid infection, there is no such thing as too extreme. JL


Hilda Bastian reports in Wired:

We don’t see op-eds that ask whether people really need to keep 6 feet away from each other, or cast doubt on whether it’s a good idea to promote hand washing 20 seconds long. But when it comes to covering our faces, a scholarly hyper-rigor has been applied. Research on mask usage doesn’t provide definitive answers. (But) nor do clinical trials prove that washing our hands for 20 seconds is superior to doing so for 10 seconds. The double standard about masks has less to do with science than a cultural difference.  We often ask for extra-special proof when a practice doesn’t fit our preconceived ideas.

Covid-19 Ended Sports Gambling, But You Can Bet on Top Chef - Or Wildlife Videos

A lot of people need action to bet on, however weird. JL

Andrew Beaton and Jared Diamond report in the Wall Street Journal:

The unprecedented sports hiatus has left fans longing for the games they love. Gamblers have an extra hole to fill. Without normal sports to bet on, they’re desperately searching for substitutes. It's gotten weird. Betting sites featuring sports are offering bets on everything from the weather to a proposed Oasis reunion. People are laying money on videogame simulations of football games. On a single day, American bettors wagered $100,000 on Russian table tennis matches. On Reality Fantasy League, there are triple the number of users this season of “Top Chef” compared to last year.

Advertisers Are Trying To Figure Out How To 'Win the Virtual Room'

It's hard to establish interpersonal chemistry by Zoom or Facetime. And reading client or consumer reactions from afar, with financial and personal stress so omnipresent, is equally challenging.

But it is increasingly apparent from a strategic perspective that whatever was trending previously is now accelerating. JL



Jameson Fleming reports in Ad Week:

The rule book is mostly out the window as agencies and brands are forced to connect on more of a human level. Creatives are finding two big hurdles when it comes to pitching: developing chemistry and reading the room through a computer screen. “Ten years of cultural change is happening in one month. Everything was shifting online. Now it’s all happening at once.” New business will continue to roll in throughout Q2. Many say few pitches have been paused or canceled so far. But there is more concern over the second half of the year and whether campaigns and projects will have to be downsized.

Grocery Workers Are Beginning To Dies of Covid-19 - And What That Implies

Early on, supermarket chains forbid workers from wearing masks and gloves because they didnt want to scare customers - or anger a President then refusing to acknowledge the threat. Now some of those workers are dying from the infection. The result is some closed stores and a more difficult time in attracting new workers.

People quarantined or self-isolating are dependent on food either delivered or purchased by family and friends. A reduction in workforce could make it more difficult to stock, sell and deliver food. JL

Abha Bhattarai reports in the Washington Post:

Major supermarket chains are beginning to report their first coronavirus-related employee deaths, leading to store closures. Thousands of grocery employees have continued to report to work as U.S. infections and death rates continue to climb, with many reporting long shifts and extra workloads to keep up with spiking demand. Many workers say they don’t have enough protective gear. Dozens of grocery workers have tested positive for the coronavirus in recent weeks. Worker infections and deaths will likely have a ripple effect on grocers’ ability to retain and add new workers

New Data Reveals US Companies Are Removing Operations From China

The cost basis on which China became the world's - and the US's - primary supplier began to change  with the trade war beginning in 2017. In addition to rising costs, supply chain risk became a more important strategic consideration in accurately assessing the cost-benefit equation.

Covid-19 has accelerated that trend. But US companies are not necessarily re-shoring manufacturing to the US. The primary beneficiaries of this change are, to date, Vietnam and Mexico. JL

Kenneth Rapoza reports in Forbes:

The value of manufactured imports from China fell 17% in 2019. U.S. producers began manufacturing and sourcing in China for cost. The trade war prompted companies to weigh surety of supply risk more fully alongside costs. COVID-19 (raises concerns about) the ability to foresee and adapt to systemic shocks. Companies will increasingly hedge their supply chain strategy to spread their risks, as opposed to relying solely on China. Of the $31 billion in U.S. imports shifted from China, 46% (are now generated) by Vietnam. Imports from Mexico to the U.S. increased 14% between 2017 and 2019.

Lockdown Was Supposed To Be An Introvert's Paradise. The Reason It's Not

Turns out people are choosing to fill the time with online content and group chats or Zoom parties rather than self-reflect.

And it's not like anyone can claim they're too busy to hang out...JL


Abby Ohlheiser reports in MIT Technology Review:

As people adjusted to isolation, they started to find ways to bring their outside social lives into their homes. Living rooms that were a sanctuary from people-filled offices, gyms, bars, and coffee shops became all those things at once. Calendars that had been cleared by social distancing refilled as friends, family, and acquaintances made plans to sip “quarantinis” at Zoom happy hours and hold Netflix viewing parties.

Why Blood Is the Next Critical Tool In Battling Covid-19

Blood cells, especially those of people who have already been exposed, may hold the secret to immunity. JL

Shelly Fan reports in Singularity Hub:

Although we don’t yet fully understand how long the virus confers immunity for, it’s likely—though severely understudied—that infected and recovered people already have protective immunity. It means that virus-killing antibodies are circulating in our blood, ones that could potentially be harnessed for people with more severe cases; we could be walking anti-coronavirus drug factories. Serology tests are both a backup to failed initial testing and a next-step measure. Rather than tracking individuals with active infections, blood tests will paint an overall picture of a county, state, or country’s status.

Tesla Announces Pay Cuts And Furloughs, Even As Its Advantages Persist

It's factory has been closed for almost three weeks. And at least the pay cuts are being handled progressively, eg, that higher paid staff are taking bigger hits.

But so much for assuming that this is a brotherhood rather than a business. JL

Timothy Lee reports in ars technica:

Tesla announced that salaried workers would take pay cuts of 10% or more through the end of June. Most hourly workers—many of whom haven't been working since Tesla shut down its Fremont factory last month—are being formally furloughed, making them eligible to claim unemployment benefits. Tesla is slashing pay for vice presidents by 30% and directors by 20%.

Supply Chain Battles Extraordinary Demand, Sick Workers

It's not like you just press a button and order more. There are shortages of raw materials, finished products and the people to make and deliver them. Under the circumstances, the US supply chain is holding up pretty well. So far. JL


Ellen Rosen reports in the New York Times:

When demand spikes unpredictably, it takes weeks for manufacturers to crank up production at multiples of the volumes they’re used to producing, and for retailers, transporters, etc., to deal with getting those products to the shelves and into homes. Shippers are facing huge challenges to ensure that they have the tools and have capacity. Manufacturing plants and warehouses are understaffed, so the truckers expecting a quick turnaround for loading “could wait as much as 15 hours for their cargo.”

Brokerage App Signups Soar As Markets Remain Volatile

The lesson for individual investors from algorithmic trading may be that calling one's broker may no longer be speedy enough and that the ability to act on  quickly as events dictate will drive more of them to mobile finance apps. JL


John Detrixhe reports in Quartz:

Stocks have been on a rollercoaster in recent weeks as the spread of the new coronavirus disrupts the global economy. Trading volumes have been off the charts as governments shutter whole commercial sectors to stop the spread of Covid-19. Account openings for brokerage apps suggest some retail investors may be looking for bargains or (that) market volatility demonstrates the need to reduce risk for  money and set it aside.

The Reason the Scale Of New York City's 'Excess Mortality' Is So High

Part of the explanation is statistical, based on the way Covid-19 deaths are accounted for, which leaves out the huge number dying at home without a formal diagnosis.

But part of it is because of the city's refusal to lock down earlier, given the number of travelers arriving from overseas, especially China, Italy and other parts of Europe. As it now stands, NYC's death rate is 12 times greater than California's, which locked down quickly. JL


Josh Marshall reports in Talking Points Memo:

Fatalities are not recorded as COVID-19 fatalities unless there is a laboratory confirmed test. Few who die at home will have been tested.As of Monday, 2,738 New York City residents had died with confirmed COVID-19 infections, 245 a day. But another 200 New Yorkers are dying at home each day compared to normal, between 20 and 25. Between March 20th and April 5th, (there was) a 400% increase in deaths at home from the same time period last year, suggesting the possibility of a 40% undercount of coronavirus-related deaths.

How Organizations Are Changing the Way They Manage Leadership Roles In Crisis

It's not just the CEO. The pandemic has taught every organization that the definition of an 'essential worker' is much broader than they might have imagined.

In order to assure operations can continue if someone gets ill, successful enterprises are taking a deeper and more holistic look at succession plans many layers down on their org charts. Collaborative decision-making via Zoom or other options makes it easier to understand the data and reasoning behind tactical and strategic plans should key individuals become absent. In startups, where venture capitalists claim they invest in people, not ideas, expanding the number of those deemed ready to lead becomes even more important. In every case, the objective is to optimize outcomes during a period of great uncertainty, moves which may benefit the organization long after the pandemic is past. JL


Chip Cutter reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Many companies have succession plans in place, but “it’s not just an envelope in a drawer any more.” The virus has made (them) more insistent about comprehensive succession planning, asking team to identify potential replacements for staffers several levels down the corporate ladder. Some are including more people on projects to duplicate decision making, or insisting that technical staffers document their work in greater detail so others can help. (Some) senior leadership teams meet daily via video conference, ensuring no group makes decisions in isolation. That means executives can quickly step into each other’s roles.

How Robotic Process Automation Is Helping Speed Covid-19 Data Analysis Tasks

Data, analysis and speed are necessary to stay ahead of the virus. Tech solutions can help with that. JL

Kyle Wiggers reports in Venture Beat:

RPA, configurable software that emulates the actions of humans interacting with digital systems, performs time-consuming, monotonous tasks undertaken by frontline workers. A cloud-based system that prioritizes and tracks RPA workflows could bolster efficiency in health systems overwhelmed by the COVID-19 pandemic. RPA processes COVID-19 testing kits, enabling hospitals lab to receive results in minutes and saving the nursing department three hours per day; executes patient intake tasks and perform coronavirus-related data analysis.

Should People Be Giving All Their Personal Data To Google And the CDC?

There needs to be a quid pro quo: yes, you can use personal data to help address the causes of the pandemic's spread.

But in return, the sensible tradeoff is to demand safeguards on data usage that last beyond this crisis. JL

Tiffany Li reports in Slate:

There are positive uses for data there may be ethical obligations to donate your data. But, we need to rethink privacy itself. We must continue to push back against companies and governments who use this crisis as an excuse for unprecedented power. So, take all my data. If it can help solve or mitigate the harms of this historic crisis for humanity, take my data and use it for that purpose—and that purpose alone.

Delivery Monopoly, Medical Risk And Other Board Games Adapted For Quarantine

There are endless variations for each game. For instance, imagine Monopoly updated as players battle the Trump Organization attempting to corner the market in hydroxchloroquine. JL

Stacey Brook reports in The New Yorker:

Delivery Monopoly: Players compete to see who can set up the most Amazon warehouses. Chance cards tell you whether your dried garbanzo beans and low-sodium Progresso soups are still in stock. Medical Risk: Players survey physicians across the globe to assess medical risks and best practices for flattening the curve. Then they ignore all logical advice in an attempt to destroy their home countries. All-Inclusive Battleship: Every ship is a cruise ship with an open-air buffet and only four serving spoons. Solitaire: No adjustments required.

UK Gov't Blames Social Media Cos As Crackpot Attacks Vs 5G Towers Continue

YouTube, among others, considers such conspiracy theories 'borderline content' which means they don't feel obligated to take it down. And these are the sources from which much of the world is allowed to receive what passes these days for news...JL

Leo Kelion and Rory Cellan-Jones report in the BBC:

The culture secretary is to order social media companies to be more aggressive in their response to conspiracy theories linking 5G networks to the coronavirus pandemic. We must see social media companies acting responsibly and taking much swifter action to stop nonsense spreading on their platforms which encourages such acts." Scientists have said the idea of a connection between Covid-19 and 5G is "complete rubbish" and biologically impossible.

Apple Is Making 1 Million Face Shields For Medical Workers. Per Week

The masks are being sourced from China and the US. This is the power of the global supply chain when it is run by competent managers. JL

Sam Byford reports in The Verge:

Apple launched “a company-wide effort bringing together product designers, engineering, operations, packaging teams, and suppliers to design, produce and ship face shields for health workers.” Apple has sourced more than 20 million masks through its global supply chain and is working with governments to donate them where they’re needed. Apple plans to ship more than one million shields by the end of this week and a further million each week after that.

Coronavirus 2020 Impact Compared To 800 Years of Global Economic Contractions

It's tough to beat the Black Death in 1349 for economic impact, when somewhere between 30% and 40% of  Europe's population died.

But if the models hold true, 2020 is likely to be 'only' the third worst economic decline in human history, following the Influenza Pandemic years of 1919 and 1921. This analysis does not include the Great Depression because it was not caused by a pandemic. JL


Jamie Powell reports in FT Alphaville:

Pandemics have gone hand-in-hand with major economic contractions through history. “800 years of large economic contractions”, takes a look at historical GDP data of previous collapses in income to give some context for the second quarter (of 2020), which is the worst on record. The second largest annual contraction was in 1349, at the height of the Black Death. The current forecast of -6.5% for 2020 would make it the 3rd largest (annual) contraction, with only 1921 and 1919 seeing larger annual declines in economic output. The contraction after the financial crisis in 2008, was "only" -4.2%.

Comparing Wuhan To Italy To New York: Similar Lockdown To Peak-Infection Trends

More evidence of why data analysis is so important in battling a pandemic. JL

Josh Marshall reports in Talking Points Memo:

The overlap of lockdown to peak fatalities and infections is important for understanding the duration of outbreaks. Italy’s fatalities peaked on March 27th. Italy shutdown from March 8th-10th. So there were 19 days from the imposition of dramatic social distancing/lockdown and the peak of fatalities. This is very close to the pattern in Wuhan, China, where there were 20 days between the lockdown of the city of Wuhan on January 23rd and the mortality peak on February 12th. If April 4th (was) the peak of daily fatalities in New York, 19 days before would be Monday, March 16th. That was the first day of school closures in New York City.

The Amish Are Getting Drive-Through Covid-19 Testing For Horses And Buggies

The patients may drive horses and buggies, but the test results will be delivered with supersonic speed. JL

Carrie Arnold reports in Motherboard:

A tiny clinic in central Pennsylvania is setting up drive-through testing that’s meant to accommodate a horse and buggy as well as cars. They’re equipped to perform 300 tests per day, and intend to return test results within 24 hours—five times faster than the current timeframe from commercial labs. The clinic caters to the local Amish and Mennonite communities (who) have been loath to postpone weddings and other large gatherings that can draw families from as far away as Ohio and Indiana. “That’s a nightmare scenario in terms of epidemiology,”

The Reason Self-Supervised Learning Is the Future Of AI

Which might be very useful in an increasingly self-supervised economy. JL

Ben Dickson reports in The Next Web:

Reducing the data-dependency of deep learning is currently among the top priorities of AI researchers. Supervised learning is the category of machine learning algorithms that require annotated training data. As soon as trained deep learning models face novel examples that differ from their training examples, they start to behave in unpredictable ways. The idea behind self-supervised learning is to develop a deep learning system that can learn to fill in the blanks. “You show a system a piece of input, a text, a video, an image, you suppress a piece of it and you train a neural to predict the piece missing.”

Google Has Tweaked Maps App To Highlight Restaurant Takeout and Delivery

Follow the money. JL

Jon Porter reports in The Verge:

Google has tweaked its Maps app to highlight restaurants that are offering takeout and delivery options during the pandemic. When you open the Maps app, you’ll now find shortcuts on the home screen, and you can tap them to find relevant restaurants close to you. These include local restaurants as well as chains. You’ll also be able to order food from within the app, but only if a restaurant supports Google’s functionality.

Cultivating Adaptability Is A Pandemic Coping Skill

The ability to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances will be the  best predictor of future success in this economy. JL


Jason Shen reports in Tech Crunch:

Whatever you thought 2020 was going to look like, you were dead wrong. This moment requires us to learn new skills, develop new habits and let go of old ways of working. “If you’re not present,  you’re not actively listening and because there’s no script, you’ll miss details." “Attachment doesn’t work because certainty doesn’t work. You can’t predict the future.”

Why Tech Startups Are Being Pummeled Especially Hard By the Covid-19 Economy

In this economy, the definition of  'value-added' has changed. And the world has endured quite enough disruption for the moment, thanks very much.

So the premium available for innovation is no longer what it was if the immediate benefit is not obvious. JL


Erin Griffith reports in the New York Times:

Start-ups have always been risky, designed to grow fast or die, but the pandemic is turbocharging Silicon Valley’s natural selection. More than 50 start-ups have cut or furloughed 6,000 employees. Initial public offerings are on hold. Funding is drying up for many young tech companies. Job listings at the 30 most valuable start-ups in the United States dropped 19%. “If what you’re doing now is not a viable solution in this new world and different economy, then find something that is.”

How Working From Home Is Now Leading To 'Remote Termination'

What might be called economic distancing.  JL


Kathryn Dill reports in the Wall Street Journal:

People are finding out en masse that they are losing their jobs on conference calls, Zoom and email. 60% of the U.S. workforce is working from home. Layoffs and furloughs have become a reality at a time when it is impossible for in-person interaction with managers. Some workers call the practice harsh, while others concede companies have little choice but to let people go by remote. When possible, employees should be notified individually. If it has to happen in a group, turn off cameras and microphones and hide the list of people on the call. Managers should make sure (people) understand a difficult conversation is coming so they can find a space that is semiprivate.

Who Should Get the Last Ventilator?

Behavioral economics is becoming a factor in determining what could be life and death decision-making as scarce resources increasingly have to be allocated to an exponentially expanding population in need.

Young versus old. Lives versus life-years. Relatively healthy versus very sick. Poor versus rich. First responders and healthcare workers versus everyone else. There are no 'right' answers - and no one even wants to make such choices. But as in so many situations where conclusions must be drawn in short time frames with imperfect information, having a transparent, intelligent rationale is better than no process at all. JL


Norman Fost reports in Slate:

In times of abundance, society can afford to offer a ventilator to a dying patient with little chance of survival, but not when another patient will die who had excellent prospects for a long life, a shift from the traditional commitment to the preferences of each individual patient, to a commitment to the interests of the community.Those developing guidelines agree no one should be able to buy their way into an ICU bed when others have the same need and the same prospect for benefit.

Google's Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports Show Who's Sheltering - Or Not

The correlation is glaring between voluntary mobility rules and continuing increases in virus spread. JL


Steve Dent reports in Engadget:

Google has unveiled COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports to help understand how people are moving about in response to the pandemic. The reports show location data from folks who have agreed to share their location history with Google in order to show places following instructions to shelter in place -- or not. In California, which has the strictest confinement rules in the US, we see a drop of 50% in retail and recreation zones. Those rules are still self-enforced, which could explain why France has started flattening its infection curve, while the US curve is traveling straight up.

The Immediate Implications Of AI Interpreting Thoughts Into Words And Speech

This breakthrough may not directly address the Covid-19 pandemic, but given its impact on human respiratory systems and the ability for patients to communicate, it may eventually help doctors determine how sick people are feeling, where their illnesses are affecting them and whether treatments feel like they are working. JL

Peter Dockrill reports in Science Alert:

(AI) systems can translate brain activity into fully formed text, without hearing a single word uttered. Data was fed into a neural network that analysed patterns in the brain activity corresponding to speech signatures, such as vowels, consonants, or mouth movements. Another neural network decoded these representations – gleaned from repetitions of 30–50 spoken sentences – and used it to predict what was being said, based on the cortical signatures of the words.

Conspiracy Theorists Think 5G Towers Spread Covid-19, So Are Attacking Them

Junk science rules in times of fear. Which is why transparency, communication and truth are so essential. JL

 Leo Kelion reports in the BBC:

One theory suggests 5G suppresses the immune system, the other claims the virus is using the network's radio waves to communicate and pick victims, accelerating its spread. There have been fires (set) at 5G masts. (But) the waveband involved is "non-ionising", meaning it lacks enough energy to break apart chemical bonds in DNA in cells.There's another major flaw with both these theories. Coronavirus is spreading in UK cities where 5G has yet to be deployed, and in countries like Japan and Iran that have yet to adopt the technology.

The Reason the UK's 'Herd Immunity' Strategy Unraveled Within Days

It was based on what turned out to be invalid assumptions, to which expert challenges were not permitted.

Gosh, who could have predicted that might not work...? JL


Sarah Boseley reports in The Guardian:

“We thought we could have a controlled epidemic. We thought we could manage that over the course of March and April, push the curve to the right, build up herd immunity and that we could protect people. The reason why that strategy was wrong is it didn’t recognise that 20% of people infected would end up with severe critical illness. The evidence was there at the end of January. This is absolutely the wrong policy. The public health approach is playing second fiddle to mathematical modelling.”

Why It's So Hard To Launch A Quarantine Enforcement App

There's a reason why tech professionals are paid a lot of money. These apps are not easy to design well.

Governments attempting to monitor entire populations face functional challenges as well as public resistance to the often unlimited nature of the data collection and the time periods over which it may be in use and the data held. JL


Marc Scott and Zosia Wanat report in Politico:

"It's not working well. On Google's app store, it's not rated very highly." Poland was one of the first Western countries to roll out a smartphone app that collects personal information, including people's location and digital photos to combat the pandemic. Ireland, the United Kingdom, France and Spain will push ahead with their own apps. The U.S. government is using mobile advertising data. Eight EU countries are working jointly on an app. "The terms and conditions aren't just. All the data will stay with the government for six years."

Telemedicine, Once A Hard Sell, Now Can't Keep Up With Demand

Once regarded as niche or irrelevant, suddenly considered essential. JL

Parmy Olson reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The largest stand-alone telemedicine service in the U.S. reported a 50% increase in service through March 20 compared with the week prior. Before the outbreak,  telemedicine struggled, because of lack of interest. The dramatic increase is leading to longer response times. It has added thousands of doctors to its network, recruiting doctors who work in nonessential areas that are being temporarily shut down in hospitals. A new, free service allows any doctor in the world to send a link to a video consultation via text, instead of through the app. Many of first-time users have become repeat visitors.