Every state but Georgia should achieve herd immunity by the end of 2021. JL
Kristine Liao reports in APM Research Lab:
As of March 14, the U.S. administered one or more shots of the vaccine to 21% of the population. All states are now on track to reach 70% immunity within the next 11 months. If states continue at their pace of vaccination thus far, New Mexico would reach 70% immunity by July; six other states would reach the goal by August. All but Alabama and Georgia would vaccinate 70% of their respective populations by August. All but Georgia would achieve herd immunity by the end of 2021.This week’s key takeaways:
The federal government distributed 19.4 million doses in the past week, down slightly from each of the previous two weeks.
The U.S. has initiated vaccination for 1 in 5 Americans, including at least 1 in 7 in each state.
Based on vaccination rates over the last two weeks, all states but Alabama and Georgia would reach herd immunity by August.
The first light at the end of the tunnel appeared on Dec. 14, 2020. After more than nine months of devastation from the pandemic, the first COVID-19 vaccination in the United States took place that day, marking a pivotal turn in the country’s fight against the virus.
Since then, the U.S. has approved three vaccine candidates and administered at least one shot to more than 100 million people. Last week, President Joe Biden promised Americans that all adults would be able to get in line for the vaccine by May 1 and that life would “get closer to normal” by Independence Day.
Here’s a look at how states have been doing in their vaccination efforts thus far, and how much more ground they need to cover in order to end this pandemic.
How quickly are doses being distributed to states?
The first step of the vaccination process is the distribution of doses to states by the federal government. The amount each state receives is determined by its population.
As of March 14, the U.S. has distributed a total of 135.8 million doses to its states, districts and territories, according to the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control. In the past week, the federal government distributed 19.4 million doses, slightly lower than the previous two weeks’ distribution levels.
How quickly are states administering the vaccine to residents?
Once the federal government distributes the allocated supply of doses to each state, it’s up to the state to administer the vaccine to its residents. As of March 14, 79% of doses distributed nationwide have been administered, a number that has remained steady for the past couple weeks.
Wisconsin, North Dakota and New Mexico continue to lead the way, each administering more than 90% of their respective supplies. The latter two states have ranked in the top three every week since the APM Research Lab began tracking vaccination progress by state.
Alabama, Washington D.C. and Georgia took the bottom spots this week, each administering less than 70% of their respective supplies. Alabama and Washington D.C. have ranked in the bottom three in the Lab’s last four updates.
How far are states from reaching a level of herd immunity?
According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease scientist, the U.S. would need to immunize between 70% and 90% of the population to reach herd immunity, thereby halting transmission of the virus.
As of March 14, the U.S. has administered one or more shots of the vaccine to 21% of the population. This week saw the highest number of new vaccinations yet: 10.7 million, up from 9 million during the previous week.
Every state has now initiated vaccination for at least 1 in 7 of its residents, and seven states have administered a shot to at least 1 in 4 of their residents. New Mexico leads the way with 29% of its population receiving at least one dose of the vaccine. Alaska and South Dakota follow closely behind with more than 27% of their respective populations vaccinated.
At the bottom of the list, Georgia, Washington D.C. and Alabama have initiated vaccination for less than 18% of their respective populations.
How long would it take to reach herd immunity if states continue at their pace thus far?
The timeline to reach herd immunity has drastically reduced since the start of the country’s vaccination efforts. Biden has promised that life will “get closer to normal” by July 4, and Fauci has said 70% to 85% of the U.S. population could be vaccinated by late summer or early fall.
In order to project how long it will take states to reach herd immunity, the APM Research Lab has calculated the pace of immunization in two ways: 1) based on the vaccinations since Dec. 15, and 2) based on vaccinations in the past two weeks.
The rate since mid-December shows that all states are now on track to reach 70% immunity within the next 11 months. If states continue at their pace of vaccination thus far, New Mexico would be able to reach 70% immunity by July; six other states would be able to reach the goal by August.
All states but Georgia would be able to achieve herd immunity by the end of 2021. This is a significant improvement compared to a month ago, when only 15 states were on track to reach herd immunity by the end of the year.
The vaccination rate based on the last two weeks shows a significantly more optimistic picture. Under this scenario, seven states would reach herd immunity in less than three months, and all but Alabama and Georgia would vaccinate 70% of their respective populations by August.
The states with the highest vaccination rates over the past two weeks are Maine and Rhode Island, each vaccinating 8% or more of their respective populations. Georgia and Alabama have the lowest rates, vaccinating 4% or less of their respective populations over the past two weeks.
Now that the U.S. is three months into its COVID-19 vaccine rollout, the process is getting smoother and states have overcome initial hiccups. However, reaching herd immunity and returning to life as we knew it is not a foregone conclusion. Many unknowns remain concerning new COVID-19 variants, when vaccines will be approved for children, barriers to the equitable distribution of vaccines, and remaining vaccine hesitancy rooted in both historical distrust and misinformation.
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