A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 8, 2021

The Reason AstraZeneca's Covid Vaccine Problem Is A Global Misfortune

The AstraZeneca vaccine, though not being used much - if at all in the US - is crucial to inoculation efforts in Europe and in much of the developing world. That latter point is because it is less expensive to transport and store. 

So the reluctance of European and British healthcare officials to recommend universal application of that vaccine will delay inoculation for tens of millions around the globe and increase vaccine hesitancy, delaying the end of the pandemic. JL

Josh Marshall reports in Talking Points Memo:

European and British regulators seem increasingly confident the AstraZeneca vaccine is associated with a serious but rare blood-clotting side effect. They’re recommending those under 30 get other vaccines. This is a major setback for the whole world. The global effort to vaccinate the populations of poorer nations (COVAX) relies heavily on the AstraZeneca vaccine because it requires less complex refrigeration and transport technology. (And this) will make the vaccine hesitancy issue incomparably harder to tackle.

Europe is again grappling with a problem we in the US are really lucky to have avoided. European and British regulators now seem to be increasingly confident the AstraZeneca vaccine is associated with a serious but extremely rare blood-clotting side effect. Until now the UK – which has one of the world’s leading vaccination campaigns – has rejected reports of adverse side effects. But now they’re seeing them too and are recommending those under 30 get other vaccines. (There’s some indication younger people may be more susceptible to the side effect; and of course they face less threat from COVID.)

This isn’t just a major setback for Europe. It’s a major setback for the whole world. The global effort to vaccinate the populations of poorer nations (COVAX) relies heavily on the AstraZeneca vaccine because it requires less complex refrigeration and transport technology.

What makes it such a complex problem is that the side effect is so extremely rare. About 34 million people have received the vaccine across Europe and the UK so far. That has yielded 222 cases of the clotting side effect with 18 confirmed fatalities. That’s a rate of around 1 case of the side effects per 100,000 patients. The side effect can be treated. And it is important to note that they are not sure yet that there is a causal connection. They’re just increasingly leaning toward that conclusion.

That’s a risk that is dwarfed by the threat of COVID, especially for all but the very young. If we mapped these preliminary numbers to the US population we’d be talking about a bit over 3,000 people suffering the side effects and perhaps 200 or 300 dying from it. (I stress these are very, very ballpark estimates based on highly tentative estimates.) That’s nothing compared to what will likely be close to three quarters of a million fatalities from COVID. But would you be nervous getting that vaccine? I would, though I grant that that is largely a matter of human beings difficulty thinking rationally about risk. I’d probably still take it, based on what we know now and the vastly lower threat compared to COVID. But at a minimum it would make getting vaccinated much less of a feel good selfie-taking experience. More importantly it would make the vaccine hesitancy issue almost incomparably harder to tackle.

We’re really blessed that to have the three vaccines we do and lucky that they are about as free of serious side effects as is possible. The rare cases of anaphylaxis which have occurred happen within minutes of receiving the vaccine and are readily treatable. The last I heard serious side effects of this kind were something on the order of one in a million (I’ve heard a range of percentages). To the best of my knowledge there’s yet to be a single fatality tied to side effect with any of the three vaccines being used in the US.

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