A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 12, 2021

Covid Delta Variant Increases US Hospital Admissions 6.8 Percent

Areas with low vaccination rates are seeing the greatest increase in hospitalizations, almost exclusively among the unvaccinated, many of whom are young adults. JL 

Betsy McKay reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Hospitalizations related to Covid-19 are rising in the U.S. after a long decline, federal data showed, providing evidence of the human toll the Delta virus variant is taking on unvaccinated Americans. New patients were admitted to hospitals each day over the week ending July 5, a 6.8% increase over admissions during the previous week. New cases are up too, about an 11% increase over the previous seven-day average.

Hospitalizations related to Covid-19 are rising in the U.S. after a long decline, federal data showed, providing evidence of the human toll the Delta virus variant is taking on unvaccinated Americans.

Just under 2,000 new patients were admitted to hospitals each day over the week ending July 5, a 6.8% increase over admissions during the previous week and an 88% decrease over a seven-day average of 16,492 patients admitted daily in early January, according to data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

New cases are up too, to a seven-day daily average of 13,859 on July 6, about an 11% increase over the previous seven-day average, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said Thursday at a White House briefing.

Two pictures of the pandemic are emerging across the country, Dr. Walensky said: one where vaccination rates are high, and new cases, hospitalizations and deaths are declining; and another where most people aren’t vaccinated, new cases are rising once again and hospitals are starting to fill up.

“These numbers and what we are seeing across the country reveal two truths about the current state of the pandemic,” she said.

“We are seeing that communities and counties that have high vaccine coverage and low case rates are getting back to normal,” she said. Of areas with low vaccination coverage, she said, “We are starting to see some new and concerning trends.”

New case numbers and hospitalizations are rising as the highly contagious Delta variant has become the dominant strain of the Covid-19 virus in the U.S., making up at least 51.7% of new infections, according to CDC data posted this week.

The Delta variant, also known as B.1.617.2, is spreading at an increasing clip around the country, penetrating areas where people are susceptible because they haven’t been vaccinated. Most of the people who are getting sick and needing hospital care are unvaccinated, Dr. Walensky said.

While data show that the Covid-19 vaccines available in the U.S. are effective against the variant, a study published in the journal Nature on Thursday suggests that it takes both doses of either the Pfizer Inc.-BioNTech SE or AstraZeneca PLC vaccines to create that protection. One shot barely protects against the Delta variant, the study found, and natural immunity as a result of infection was less protective against Delta than against the Alpha variant, which was previously the dominant U.S. strain. The Delta variant is also resistant to some antibodies manufactured as treatments. The study didn’t evaluate the Moderna Inc. or Johnson & Johnson vaccines.

Dr. Walensky said 173 U.S. counties—many of which are in Missouri, Arkansas, Nevada, Wyoming and Colorado—have case rates that the CDC defines as high, and most have full vaccination rates of 40% or less of their populations. Nationally, 47.7% of the total population and 55.8% of the population ages 12 and over have been fully vaccinated. Covid-19 clusters and outbreaks are emerging in camps and community events where prevention measures, such as wearing masks, aren’t being followed, she said.

Despite the rising numbers, epidemiologists say they expect a smaller surge now compared with those last summer and this past winter. The young are at highest risk: Vaccination rates are low among young adults, and children under age 12 aren’t yet authorized to receive the vaccine.

When children go back to school this fall, “the burden of disease will shift to children in a way we haven’t seen before,” said Caitlin Rivers, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Children generally become mildly ill with Covid-19, but some do experience complications, quarantines are disruptive and clusters of infection in schools can lead to outbreaks in the wider community, Dr. Rivers said.

“I would like to see children under 12 continue to wear masks in schools,” she said.

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