Why Societal Mass Mobilization Is Unlikely To Help Russia In Ukraine

Recent commentary has raised the question of whether Russia is considering a declaration of war against Ukraine, which would then permit mass mobilization of tens of thousands of new recruits. 

The problem with that scenario, given the abject failure of Russia's best trained and equipped troops in the early weeks of the war, is who would train and then equip these recruits given reports of frantic attempts already under way by Russian families to get their sons exemptions. Plus, Russia is already running out of the working equipment it did have, which it cannot replace due to sanctions and corruption. And the mass mobilization and slaughter of WWI was a factor in causing the 1917 Russian Revolution, a fact unlikely to have been overlooked by current Russian leadership. JL  

Phillips O'Brien reports on Twitter:

Russia has no training system to handle mass infusion of untrained personnel. If they want to train more--they need to set up a training system first to handle more soldiers. This takes many months. Under exceptionally efficient systems, you might expect a large army expansion with well trained soldiers in 9 months. Could Russia do that--doubtful. (And) there are stories of Russian army recruitment stations being burned. Will people actually want to fight and die in this war? Then you have to equip them. Russia is economically weak and now operating under sanctions. The Russians are already suffering shortfalls in replenishment. So Russian mobilization requires the establishment of a training system that doesnt exist and the growth of arms production that is already crippled

We have lots of stress on what if Russia goes for societal mobilization now (normally - by the way - by those who argued that Russia would conquer Ukraine quickly). However, societal mobilization is not easy under the best of conditions.

 

People seem to be forgetting that societal mobilization and long war has enormous political, economic and military risks for Russia. Its not just about calling soldiers to the ranks--its about training them and equipping them. Russia is not in the best position to do this at all.

 

Russia has no training system to handle some mass infusion of untrained personnel. They already have called up this year's normal conscript soldiers (Only 135k because of Russia's demographic crisis) and they are right now being trained. If they want to train more--they need to set up a training system first to handle more soldiers. This normally takes many months in an efficient system. Only once you have the training system, can you start actually creating your new army.

 

Just as an example, it takes the US in WWII, even with preparations under way. more than 6 months to start expanding significantly its pool of trained personnel. and its not til more than a year that the numbers really take off.

 

So the Russians need to train the trainers, then train the new soldiers. According to this

@ISW

report, Russian training takes somewhere between 3-6 months. So under exceptionally efficient systems, you might expect a large army expansion with well trained soldiers in 9 months. Could RUssia do that--doubtful. Probably poorly trained, unmotivated conscripts could be produced, but thats it.

 

Then you have to equip them. Again, all this blase talk about Russia going to full mobilization misses the fact that Russia is economically weak and now operating under sanctions.

The Russians are already suffering shortfalls in replenishment. It would again take a very efficient and well planned economy to ramp up production under these sanctions. SO arming the new mass army with new weapons will be hard. Sure, they can get all their oodles of equipment that has been sitting around in storage for years, not being maintained, etc. Their front line stuff has already shown weaknesses. Imagine what the second-line stuff is like.

 

So Russian mobilization requires the establishment of a training system that doesnt exist and the growth of arms production that is being crippled. It would also require an admission by the Russian government that they are losing the war. Thats a political risk. Is interesting to note that when they called up this year's conscripts, they said they would not be sent to Ukraine. There are stories of RUssian army recruitment stations being burned too. Will people actually want to fight and die in this war? Questionable.

 

And while the Russians are assembling this force of hastily untrained, not well equipped, and politically questionable conscripts to fight in a war that they have been calling a great success--the Ukrainians will be getting more and better equipment from NATO. Ukraine is already upgrading its training and will beat the Russians to the punch by getting better prepared soldiers to the front lines months earlier--and thats if Russia acts now.

 

So understand Russian societal mobilization is not something that can be simply bandied about. It requires action and preparation that the Russian government is clearly reluctant to do. Stop talking about it like its easy and Russia is some large power. Neither is true. And Russia has to start now. Waiting till May 9 is even too late. Ukraine has already started its societal mobilisation in training and equipment.

So Russian mobilization requires the establishment of a training system that doesnt exist and the growth of arms production that is being crippled. It would also require an admission by the Russian government that they are losing the war. Thats a political risk.

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