A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 29, 2022

Ukraine Strategy Emerges: Bleed Them In Donbas, Defeat Them In Kherson

There has been a lot of questioning as to why Ukraine has so loudly and consistently signaled their intention to counterattack in the Kherson area.

The explanation which is emerging suggests the Ukrainians wanted to lure Russia into sending more troops to Kherson where Ukraine's greater range and accuracy from NATO supplied weapons now allows them to attrit Russian forces before actually launching the attack. It is clever - and deadly. JL  

Phillips O'Brien reports in Twitter, image Serhii Nuzhnenko, Reuters:

The Ukrainians started telling people to get out of the region as an attack was coming, telegraphing intentions to the Russians. It seems the Ukrainians wanted the Russians to rush more force to the area, because they were not planning a mass attack, they were planning a deliberate campaign to make the Russians send in forces, and now they attrit them. Theyve made the Russians commit to a killing ground that fits (their strategy). As long as they have advantages in range and accuracy, they will attrit Russian forces with smaller attacks to find soft spots (which will occur as Russian logistics and c/c fail). Bleed them in the Donbas, Bleed them in Kherson, Defeat them in Kherson.As Ukraine is preparing the ground for counteroffensive and Russian attempts to continue to move forward in the Donbas are petering out. Ukrainian strategy, Bleed them in the Donbas, Defeat them in Kherson.

 

Whats happened in the Donbas in the last 3 weeks can be summed up quickly. Almost no Russian advance, a major drop in Russian ranged fire since July 9. Russian logistics seem severely degraded and if they cant find a way to get ammo in mass quantities to front line units..Russian offensive activity directed towards three areas, the town of Siversk, Bakhmut and Slovyansk. Minimal difference. I think the Russians might have occupied a few villages.

 

The lack of change in the last week is particularly important. Putin's defense minister Shoigu declared the operational pause over on July 16.Since then, there was an attempt to increase Russian ranged fire, but that seems even now to be faltering. Looking at three day maps (July 17-19 and July 21-23) there is far less activity recorded in the latter than the former.So unless the Russians are being subtle and slowly, quietly building up ammo stocks for a great offensive. they are struggling. Of course, even the heavier fire of July 17-19 pails in comparison to the heavier fire in earlier July. Almost night and day.

 

Most likely explanation is staring us in the face. Ukrainians now have the range and accuracy advantage, and are using it to degrade Russian logistics and command/control. While the Russians bash their heads on Ukrainian lines, Ukraine fights smart.A real sign the Ukrainians are planning to step up the use of their heavier military equipment in counteroffensives aimed at Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. They want their civilians out and are being more demanding about this than even before

 

If Donbas looks static, attention seems to be switching to Kherson. I was struck a few weeks ago when the Ukrainians started telling people to get out of the region as an attack was coming. It seemed to be telegraphing Ukr intentions to the Russians.It does seem possible that the Ukrainians actually wanted the Russians to rush more force to the area, because the actually were not planning a mass attack, they were planning a deliberate logistics campaign. The more Russian troops the more difficult to supply.What we have seen in the Donbas the last two weeks since the Ukr govt talked about a counteroffensive, is a deliberate campaign to destroy depots, C/C and now bridges. They seem to be cutting Kherson up into different small Russian areas that cant support.

 

Having already struck bridges that cross the major river in the area, the Dnipro, the Ukr have started striking bridges that link the north and south of the area on the west bank for the RUssians.Ukrainians using the HIMARS on this (perhaps their most valuable equipment) and using it well as can be seen in the remarkably accurate fire that straddled the bridge.

 

What might be happening? Just a guess, but actually the Ukrainians are still waiting for a large scale counterattack. They made the Russians send in forces, and now the want to cut them up and attrit them down. Basically theyve made the Russians commit to a killing ground.nd that fits alot of what they have been saying for months. The original guess for the great problem hitting the Russians in soldiers and supplies was late August. The Ukr dont look like they are going to do anything rash.As long as they have significant advantages in range and accuracy, they will attrit Russian forces down in Kherson, lots of smaller attacks up and down the line to find soft spots (which will occur as Russian logistics and c/c fail). A few more weeks of this, and you can see Ukraine taking more risks. Strategy might be, Bleed them in the Donbas, Bleed them in Kherson, Defeat them in Kherson.

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