What Has the Ukrainian War Against Russian Invasion Taught the West?

The most important lessons may be that there are still global leaders who believe war is the best way to get what they want, that strong alliances are the best way to defeat them using industrial-strength weapons and logistics.

But just as there are no technological silver bullets in business, there are none in war. It all comes down to humans courage, motivation and leadership. JL 

Mick Ryan reports in War In the Future, image Ammar Awad, Reuters:

There are still those who believe war is the best way to get what they want. Industrial-scale war has re-emerged from the 20th-century history books to plague the 21st. At the same time Western nations reduced the size of their militaries, they reduced the scale of military industrial capacity. This has resulted in (NATO) countries drawing down on war stocks of precision munitions to support Ukraine in a way that now threatens their own capacity to respond to other contingencies. A third lesson is the centrality of alliances in the 21st century security environment. A fourth is that Western populations care about events beyond their shores.A fifth is that there are no technological silver bullets in war.

August 24 is the day Ukrainians celebrate their independence. It commemorates the re-establishment of Ukraine’s independence in 1991 after the breakdown of the Soviet Union. This year’s 31st anniversary marks a less cheery milestone – it will be six months since the beginning of the Russian invasion.

While making future projections for this war is perilous, there remains much that Western governments and military institutions can learn from the past six months.

Perhaps the most important lesson is that there are still those who believe war is the best way to get what they want. This is an old idea, as ancient as the existence of human societies. There are always those who want what others have. So, too, it goes with nations and their leaders.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is a non-state, one that “was entirely created by Russia” and “an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space.” Such justifications, which have parallels with China’s claim on Taiwan, represent the thin veneer of “legitimacy” employed by authoritarians seeking to squelch out democratic exemplars on their borders. Such claims demand increased Western investment in the diplomatic, informational, economic and military aspects of national power to deter further aggression in the future.

A second observation is that industrial-scale war has re-emerged from the 20th-century history books to plague the 21st. This is an unwelcome development for democratic nations that have eschewed large military institutions since the end of the last Cold War.

At the same time Western nations reduced the size of their military forces, they also consolidated and reduced the scale of military industrial capacity. This has resulted in countries such as America, Britain and others drawing down on war stocks of precision munitions to support Ukraine in a way that now threatens their own capacity to respond to other contingencies. Western governments will need to expand their defence industries and construct the military forces of the size necessary to deter the aspirations of Putin and China’s Xi Jinping.

A third lesson is the centrality of alliances in the 21st century security environment. A moribund NATO has been infused with energy and purpose. While Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and the alliance has stopped short of deploying forces to Ukraine, it has demonstrated a resolve that had been absent before now. NATO has proven to be the right organisation with the right members at the right time to provide material, intelligence, training and other forms of support to the sturdy Ukrainian defenders. It is a demonstration of why alliances – with the right purpose - remain an important element of how the West achieves collective defence for their sovereignty, and for democracy more broadly.

A fourth learning is that Western populations care about events beyond their shores. Polling in several countries, including Australia, has shown strong support for the provision of aid to the defence of Ukraine. However, polls have also shown that this does not always extend to the provision of soldiers for the war.

Importantly, this support and focus on the war can wane. With increasing energy, fuel and food costs, there are a variety of issues drawing attention away from the war at the six-month mark. Politicians and other leaders in the West should heed this. While Ukraine may not be central to political fortunes right now, other issues – such as the long-term strategic competition with China – will be. National leaders must hone their capacity to ensure societal resilience and strategic patience for these struggles into the years ahead.

A final lesson involves technology and humans. There has been a desire by many commentators to find a breakthrough technology to provide a decisive advantage to the Ukrainians. Whether it was Javelins early in the war, or the more recent provision of HIMARS, the constant search for technological silver bullets has been a feature of this war.

The reality, proven by thousands of years of human conflict, is that there is no such thing. Machines and tools do not win wars; humans do. This war has offered multiple lessons on the human ingenuity, teamwork and leadership that remains the key to success in deterring, and winning, wars. This should be a core observation for the Australian defence review. Investing in the training and education of military personnel is a non-discretionary element of generating military capability.

Despite the recent popularity of decline of war theories that have induced many to believe that large-scale wars belong to history, the brutal Russian onslaught has shocked governments and populations from their optimistic slumber. It has been a brutal contest, where every old idea of war – combat, murder, rape, pillage and widespread destruction – has featured alongside new technologies such as drones and social-media influencers.

On this six-month anniversary of the start of the war, there is much for Western governments and national leaders to reflect upon.