Russia Didn't Believe Ukraine Could Advance On 1 Front, Let Alone 3

The Russians have learned the hard way that they were wrong. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine advanced on every front. There were Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and two areas of Kharkiv oblast. The number of towns either thrown into dispute or liberated by Ukraine in the last 24 hours reads like a month of Russian progress being rolled back overnight. Ukrainian forces made a sudden, forceful attack in southern Kharkiv. This caught Russia by complete surprise. Ukraine had an advantage in both men and armor. They used NATO-style combined arms tactics, with armor, infantry, artillery, and air support all working in concert. In a war where gains have been measured in meters, Ukrainian forces advanced over 20 kilometers in a day.

Ukraine advanced on every front. There were Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and in two different areas of Kharkiv oblast. The number of towns that were either thrown into dispute or fully liberated by Ukraine just in the last 24 hours reads like a month of Russian progress in this invasion being rolled back overnight.

And sometimes it’s more than a month. Does the name Volokhiv Yar sound familiar? Back in March and April, that name appeared in a dozen Ukraine updates. It’s a small crossroad along the M03 highway that just happens to be where the salient that Russia pushed out from Kupyansk in the east turned south toward Izyum. Here’s a map from April 1, when Russia had just managed to take Izyum. Volokhiv Yar is where the dark line of the highway from Kharkiv meets that red Russian salient.

This was right at the period when Russia had been booted from the area around Kyiv. The highway connecting Kyiv and Kharkiv had just been cleared of Russian forces, and Ukraine had also sent troops down the M03, clearing the nearest suburbs. For days, we kept up a steady beat of statements like, “If Ukraine can reach Volokhiv Yar, they could possibly cut off supplies and reinforcements from reaching the Izyum salient.” But then Russia occupied the whole area around Izyum, and Volokhiv Yar vanished from the story.

Until yesterday. Because these are Ukrainian troops moving through the crossroads at Volokhiv Yar.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces made a sudden and forceful attack in southern Kharkiv oblast near the town of Balakliya. By all accounts, this attack caught Russia by complete surprise. Ukraine apparently managed to move enough force into the area that they had an advantage in both men and armor. Also they reportedly used NATO-style combined arms tactics, with armor, infantry, artillery, and air support all working in concert. When a core of resistance prevented Ukraine from immediately capturing Balakliya, they didn’t stop. They took Bairak to the south. They took Vrubivka to the north. They completely encircled Balakliya and they just kept going. 

Both Twitter and Telegram are choked with images of captured Russian soldiers, Ukrainian forces shooting down a Russian jet, and Russian equipment either destroyed or captured. Even prepared positions were rapidly overrun as what had been a World War I-style artillery battle turned into modern warfare. In a war where gains have been measured in meters, Ukrainian forces advanced over 20 kilometers in a day.

Russian channels are reporting that rather than turning south toward Izyum, the Ukrainian force that reached Volokhiv Yar on Tuesday is continuing to the east. They suspect Ukraine is heading straight toward Kupyansk, but that’s little more than a guess. However, there have been reports of Ukrainian scouts at Petropillya and even unconfirmed reports at Shevchenkove.

Actions north of Izyum driving a counteroffensive salient into Russian-controlled territory.

I’ll tell you right now, this map is wrong. It’s based on the best information I could obtain on Wednesday morning, but there’s no doubt that this information is already hours out of date, and this is a situation where hours count. It’s now Ukraine pushing a salient into Russian-occupied territory. Will they drive ahead? Pull back and consolidate gains? Try to expand the base, or push along one of the highways to isolate some front-line villages? One of these things (or more) has already happened.

If this was happening in a vacuum, it would still be the single most significant advance by Ukrainian forces since Russia retreated from the north. But it’s not. In Kherson there were significant advances in both north and south. There were more Ukrainian advances north of the city of Kharkiv. And there’s definite activity pressing south in Zaporizhzhia, though the details are still fuzzy. There are bound to be surprises.

Speaking of which … if the name Volokhiv Yar requires reaching back, how about Lyman?

Ukraine has crossed the Siverskyi Donets to occupy two towns south of Lyman.

Over the weekend, there were reports that Ukrainian forces had crossed the Siverskyi Donets River to liberate some of the villages and towns along the northern bank. From the videos seen, it seemed like just a few special forces in boats, and it was easy to dismiss the whole thing as just a few people flying the colors and showing Russia that they had yet another soft spot.

However, more videos have now emerged that reportedly show Ukrainian troops have actually been in control of Ozerne and Staryi Karavan for at least two days. This would seem to represent a more significant bridgehead across the river than previously thought, and places Ukraine just 3 kilometers away from the city of Lyman. 

Ukrainian forces pushed down from the north in Kherson oblast.

In the Kherson area, Ukrainian forces moved on from securing Vysokopillya and neighboring villages and began a push to the south that rapidly moved about 10 kilometers to Novovoskresenske. There are some reports (not reflected on this map) that Ukrainian forces are also moving south from Zolota Balka and are engaged in combat at Novooleksandrivka. There doesn’t seem to be any fresh word of activity from the Inhulets bridgehead, but there is a lot of empty area over there, so almost any kind of movement could be underway.

Ukraine moves against a line of towns northeast of Kyselivka.

Another surprise came out of the southern section of the Kherson area, where Ukraine reportedly moved against a whole line of Russian-occupied towns in Mykolaiv oblast northeast of Kyselivka. Liubomyrivka and Shmidtove are reported to be liberated, while four more are currently in dispute. 

In both the northern and southern sections, the front line around Kherson is becoming more and more fractured. At least four separate battles appear to be underway, in addition to reports of shelling and smaller actions around individual towns. As in other areas, it’s hard to predict where any of these individual movements is going next, but the overall strategy in Kherson seems to be keeping Russian forces divided by the Inhulets River, and kept Russia from providing resupply across the Dnipro River. 

For weeks, it’s been reported that Russia has a “second line” of towns and villages in Kherson that are much better fortified and prepared than the front-line towns. That’s about to be tested.

Russia completed the capture of Kodema.

Russia did rack up one win on Tuesday: Ukrainian forces withdrew from the town of Kodema,  around a dozen kilometers southeast of Bakhmut. Russian forces have now reportedly occupied the town. Russian troops had been in the eastern portion of the town for some time, but have now completed the occupation. Other Russian attempts to advance in the area failed.