A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Oct 7, 2022

Latest Russian Defensive Line Protecting Kherson Has Reportedly Collapsed

The Russians have plenty of soldiers, but the intangibles matter: it bears repeating that the Ukrainians are better led, better informed, better equipped - and much more highly motivated. 

It is hard to defend a difficult position when much of your army is only there because they were forced to be. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

After three days of running away in a panic, Russian commanders put the brakes in place  30km away from where the front line was last Saturday. Anchoring the left with a pair of “fortress towns” at Bruskynske and Ishchenka and Mylove, Russia created a new defensive line that was supposed to prevent any further approach to Berislav and that bridge at Nova Kakhovka. (But) late Wednesday there were reports that the western end of this line was having trouble. Then, on Thursday the middle of the line had started to buckle. Finally, the eastern end at Mylove broke completely

Meanwhile, back at Putin’s illegal and unprovoked invasion, there are reports that the Russian line in Kherson has collapsed. Again.

Reports indicate that the Bruskynske—Borozenske—Mylove defensive line has failed. 

After three days of consistent and highly disciplined running away in a panic, Russian commanders were able to put the brakes in place better than 30km away from where the front line was last Saturday. Anchoring the left with a pair of “fortress towns” at Bruskynske and Ishchenka, and the right with Mylove, which is well positioned across a bridge that is almost certainly down, Russia created a new defensive line that was supposed to prevent any further approach to Berislav and that mostly-busted bridge at Nova Kakhovka. 

However, late in the day on Wednesday, there were reports that the western end of this line was having trouble, with Ukraine both pushing around the end of the line and liberating a string of villages east of Ishchenka. Then, on Thursday, came the word that the middle of the line had started to buckle, with Russian forces dropping back several kilometers. Finally, reports that the eastern end at Mylove — in spite of a pair of downed bridges along the route from Dudchany — had broken completely with Russian forces in flight down the highway to Berislav.

However, as that big and growing slice of yellow in the middle of the map above indicated, I have a lot of reports of all this activity. What I don’t have is any kind of confirmation from either official or trusted resources.

All of this is exciting. All of this is just what I want to hear. And just how much it seems like exactly that I want, makes me distrust it that much more. There are at least two “new new Russian defensive line” maps circulating out there, but I see no reason to believe either of them.

Truthfully, I’ve been scanning Telegram and Twitter accounts, along with military blog sites, over the last hour, looking for something that would make me breathe a sigh of “okay, that looks right” relief. I’ve yet to find it.

At this point, I rate the probability that Russia has been pressed out of Borozenske, Mylove, and Ishchenka as high. But whether they’ve been completely untethered from that cluster of defensive positions on the left from Bruskynske to Stepove, I’m much less certain. I’m also uncertain about where the real line of retreat is at this time, because while sources are pitching around statements like “thrown back 10km” or “retreated 15km,” the truth is there are villages and towns in the intervening space, and I’ve seen zero reports on any fighting at those locations.

There are reports Russia’s defensive line is down. I think Russia’s defensive line is down. But I’m not sure Russia’s defensive line is down. Which is why there is so much yellow on the map.

At Snihurivka, things seem a little clearer. As of mid-day on Thursday, Ukrainian forces hold the north of the city. Russian forces are mostly to the southwest, in the industrial area along the highway. But the claims that Ukraine had actually liberated the city seem to go back to an on-the-ground Russian source, who was apparently angered that Russian officers fled the town after Ukraine pressed the attack.

Meanwhile, pro-Russian accounts are blasting a steady stream of just how invincible Russian forces were today, and how the new line repelled all attacks.

When I have confirmation of the actual situation, you’ll get it.

1 comments:

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