Russians, Including Armed Troops, Reportedly Evacuating Kherson

Following earlier stories that Russia was going to mount a last-ditch defense of Kherson, reports now indicate Russian troops are abandoning their lines  and attempting to flee across the Dnipro with the civilians afraid of getting caught in the fighting and officials obeying orders to retreat.

The looming question is whether Putin plans to drop a tactical nuke on Kherson - or blow the Kakokhta dam - which would flood much of the city. Either way, a 'smoking ruin' defense now appears unlikely. JL  

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

On Saturday, Russia is departing from Kherson city, and from the whole of Kherson Oblast lying west of the Dnipro River. Official messages from the occupation government call for “immediate” evacuation." There have been no Ukrainian forces making a major advance toward the city, though there have been reports that Russian forces have been reduced, and Russian artillery fire has all but stopped. Russia has abandoned positions in northern Kherson. Ukrainian forces are at the northern edge of Mylove, without reports that this involved fighting. A number of towns and villages around Chaklove are sitting empty of Russian troops.

On Saturday, the messages that Russia is departing from Kherson city, and from the whole portion of Kherson Oblast lying west of the Dnipro River, grew only louder. Official messages from the occupation government calling for “immediate” evacuation of all officials, as well as the civilian population, are circulating widely.

As they’ve been departing, Russian forces have been taking away all they can carry. That includes washing machines. It includes furniture and fixtures stolen from homes and apartments. It includes the contents of stores and gear from television studios. It includes children even younger than the girl in the video above. 

Back in July, as Ukraine both reached positions where Kherson was in the range of extended artillery and began to employ weapons like HIMARS that were capable of both greater range and precision, there were thoughts that rather than target Russian military assets that were inextricably mixed with civilian locations inside Kherson, Ukraine would go for the bridges. Just days later, Ukraine did exactly that, striking both the Antonivskyi Bridge east of Kherson, then the Kakhovka dam bridge west of Nova Kakhovka. From that point on, Russia’s ability to stay in Kherson was in serious doubt.

Almost immediately, as Russia began trying to support its forces in the west with ferries and makeshift bridges constructed by stringing together barges, there were rumors that Russia’s departure from the area was imminent. If Russian forces along the front line were expending ammunition and equipment faster than it could be resupplied, then Ukraine didn’t have to actually stage an assault on Kherson. It only had to wait.

Some other plans were apparently discussed, such as trying to hold onto a smaller area around the city of Kherson. However, the damage to the Kerch Bridge in Crimea at the start of this month, and the Ukrainian push down from the north that liberated over 1,000 square kilometers in three days, finally seemed to place enough stress on this already tightened supply that Russia was left with no other choice than departure.

In the last weeks, there have been multiple signs of Russia’s leaving Kherson. Some of those have been as predictable as increased theft of washing machines. Some have been much darker.

The possibility of a humanitarian disaster in Kherson—one that doesn’t involve a tactical nuke or an exploding dam—is still hanging out there. Russian soldiers who have watched thousands of their own companions die in an attempt to hold onto Kherson, are now being told to pack up and leave. Collaborators, Russians lured into Kherson with the promise of jobs in the occupation government, and military officials who were running day to day operations are all leaving. In fact, they are reportedly leaving today.

As the Associated Press reports, 

Russian-installed authorities ordered all residents of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson to leave “immediately” Saturday ahead of an expected advance by Ukrainian troops waging a counteroffensive to recapture one of the first urban areas Russia took after invading the country.

Those authorities have apparently already hopped onto ferries and beat it out of Kherson. Ukrainian forces are still kilometers away from the city. There have been no reports of Ukrainian forces making a major advance toward the city, though there have been reports that Russian forces have been reduced, and Russian artillery fire has all but stopped, along the front lines in Kherson.

Right now, there are still thousands of Russian troops on the west side of the Dnipro River. The city of Kherson appears to be without any civilian leadership. It’s unclear to what extent there is any military leadership remaining. It’s just the citizens, and thousands of Russian soldiers who have been defeated in months of bloody fighting. That’s not a good formula.

There is no doubt that Russia would like to make an “orderly retreat” in which it takes with it as much military equipment (and washing machines) as possible. There’s also no doubt that Ukraine would like to prevent this. Tanks and artillery that don’t make it across the river, are tanks and artillery they don’t have to fight another day. On the other hand, Ukrainian military commanders are likely to be reluctant to risk their forces in attacking positions that are about to be abandoned. However, if there are signs of Russian soldiers taking their anger out on the civilian population as they depart, Ukraine is certain to plunge in.

Kherson stands on the brink of liberation. But it may not get there without passing through yet another bath of chaos. It’s a good time for everyone to hunker under a desk.

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From the WTF breaking news desk, there have also been reports that Russia has also ordered the evacuation of Belgorod. However, this doesn’t seem to be actually the case. Apparently small numbers of people were evacuated from some towns and villages along the Ukrainian border, this was spread into the media, and now there are many reports that the whole of Belgorod Oblast, including the city of Belgorod, is being evacuated. These reports have become so widely repeated that there are traffic jams of people streaming out of towns in the region.

Russia seems to be getting extremely fearful. Almost like they think they’re going to be held responsible for what they’ve done in Ukraine. And Syria. And Georgia. And Chechnya. And...

Seeing more reports of Ukrainian forces liberating towns in Kherson area. Searching for confirmations and hoping to have an updated map soon. Probably will do another Ukraine Update in a couple of hours.

UPDATE: Saturday, Oct 22, 2022 · 12:57:49 PM EDT · Mark Sumner

Russia has apparently ordered officers and medical personnel to evacuate the filtration camp at Beryslav. There have been horror stories out of this area. Don’t be surprised if Russia takes steps to burn or blow up incriminating evidence here.

UPDATE: Saturday, Oct 22, 2022 · 12:50:47 PM EDT · Mark Sumner

The Ukrainian general staff has confirmed Russia’s withdrawal from the Chkalove area. More reports coming in that Russia has abandoned positions in northern Kherson area. On the east side of the line, Ukrainian forces are reportedly at the northern edge of Mylove, without reports that this involved fighting. On the western end of the line, reports that a number of towns and villages around Chaklove are sitting empty of Russian troops.