A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Nov 10, 2022

The Reason Ukraine Is Advancing On Kherson Swiftly But Carefully

Ukrainian forces appear to be having a hard time believing the Russians are really abandoning the west bank of the Dnieper and the city of Kherson. 

As a result they are being cautious about advancing, about announcing how far they've come - and how much resistance, if any, they are facing. They wont believe it till they get to the banks of the Dnieper - and it's hard to blame them. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Earlier reports indicated Ukraine has been on the move for 2+days and liberation videos weren’t released until today because Ukraine is still protecting operational security? There are some reports that this is continuing, and that Ukraine has positions much closer to Kherson than we are now seeing.No point in trying to keep up the idea of a northern and southern front as everything is melting together as the Russian occupied region of Kherson west of the river dissolves. Russian Telegram also reporting that Ukrainian forces have entered the city of Kherson.Reports that Chornobaivka has been liberated. That would put Ukrainian forces MUCH closer to the city than any of the videos we’ve been seeing all day — but then, sources have been indicating these videos are 24-48 hours old. If Chornobaivka has been liberated, then yes, the city is next.

Russian Telegram also reporting that Ukrainian forces have entered the city of Kherson. Hold onto your hats, folks.

UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 1:44:30 PM EST · Mark Sumner

That fight at Chervonya Mayak reportedly took place a day ago, so Ukrainian troops could be even closer to Beryslav in the north. And since just about everything we’ve been seeing further south is at least 24 hours old, this isn’t that surprising. Ukrainian forces have reportedly engaged Russians at Chervonyi Mayak, south of Novokairy. A number of Russian troops were reportedly killed and significant equipment captured before Russian forces retreated to the south.

Down near Pravdyne: Myrne, Molodetske, and Znamianka are all reported liberated. 

UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 12:36:57 PM EST · Mark Sumner

You know how some earlier reports indicated Ukraine has been on the move for 2+days and liberation videos weren’t released until today because Ukraine is still protecting operational security? There are some reports that this is continuing, and that Ukraine has positions much closer to Kherson than we are now seeing.

UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 12:22:36 PM EST · Mark Sumner

This is a big one. Novokairy is on the highway south of Mylove moving toward Beryslav. This shows that Ukrainian advances continue along that highway, as well.

Finally hearing that Ukrainian forces have entered Soldatske, directly west of Kyselivka. That was one of the last places along the line where Russian forces had been reported present. I don’t know if they left or surrendered. I suspect there are going to be a lot of new Russian POWs today.

UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 12:00:06 PM EST · Mark Sumner

It’s great to see that these towns and villages which have not been on the front line are in good shape. Plus, apparently it’s still watermelon season in Kherson.

Advancing Ukrainian forces have reportedly caught up to retreating Russian forces along the highway south of Snihurivka between Barativka and Oleksandrivka. No word of any combat at this point.

Hard to tell if this is just Russian forces still trying to clear out, of if they’re attempting to set up defenses.

UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 11:02:40 AM EST · Mark Sumner

Confirming that Ukraine has actually been moving forward for at least two days, but keeping things quiet.

That last update got deleted because not only did the underlying tweet go, people are now arguing over whether Ukrainian troops have reached Tamaryne or Tomaryne. The difference? Tomaryne is way down there less then 10km from Beryslav.

UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 10:39:07 AM EST · Mark Sumner

Officials in Mykolaiv are reporting that the entire Mykolaiv oblast has been liberated. That would be everything above that faint blue line that cuts back and forth on the map below, all the way down to Oleksandrivka in the middle. But I’m going to wait for individual towns to report in. It’s more fun that way.

UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 10:30:11 AM EST · Mark Sumner

Just going to put this up there. No point in trying to keep up the idea of a northern and southern front as everything is melting together as the Russian occupied region of Kherson west of the river dissolves.

A picture of Russia in flight. 

Expect another update later. The locations are rolling in faster than I can update. It’s exactly the best of all possible outcomes we hoped for yesterday. Still no news of Ukrainian forces bumping up against a new Russian line, but that could happen soon — if there is a new Russian line.

UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 10:24:19 AM EST · Mark Sumner

Mylove is reported to be liberated. T

ime to make a big rework of the map, because the northern advance and southern advance in Kherson just merged.

UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 9:14:14 AM EST · Mark Sumner

Those two red dots south of Snihurivka on the map? They’re not red any more. Yurivka and Afanasiivka liberated.With the sunrise in Ukraine, the images and videos started to appear, and all the best news of Wednesday was confirmed. The fortress town of Snihurivka, which has long guarded any access to the city of Kherson from the northwest and had resisted months of assaults, has been totally liberated.And that’s just one part of the larger retreat that appears to be going on across the region. After several false starts and false claims, this Russian withdrawal is the real deal. On the northern border, Ukraine has reportedly liberated Piatykhatky, Sadok, Bezvodne, Ishchenka, and Bruskynske. That last one has long been a Russian strongpoint, fortified after Ukraine first established a bridgehead across the Inhulets River south of Davydiv Brid over three months ago



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