A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Dec 7, 2022

Price Caps And New Sanctions Cause "Notable" Drop In Russian Oil Exports

Follow the (decline of) money...JL 

Anna Hirtenstein and Joe Wallace report in the Wall Street Journal:

Russian crude-oil exports have declined markedly since new sanctions and a price cap came into force. Russia's daily barrels exported fell by nearly 50%. Shipments from the country’s Black Sea and Baltic ports accounted for most of the fall. Seaborne exports fell by nearly 500,000 barrels per day on Tuesday, a roughly 16% fall from the November average. It's a notable drop rather than a blip. “Russian exports have been moving steadily up until now."

Russian crude-oil exports have declined markedly since new sanctions and a price cap came into force. Figures from two data providers both show substantial deterioration, albeit of different magnitudes:

  • Seaborne exports fell by nearly 500,000 barrels per day on Tuesday, a roughly 16% fall from the November average of 3.08 million bpd, according to Kpler, a commodity-analytics firm.
  • TankerTrackers.com, which follows vessels using signals and satellite images, said Russia's daily barrels exported fell by nearly 50%. Shipments from the country’s Black Sea and Baltic ports accounted for most of the fall.

It's a notable drop rather than a blip, according to Samir Madani, cofounder of TankerTrackers.com. “Russian exports have been moving steadily up until now. The two biggest visible snags are in the Black and Baltic seas. Pacific and Arctic regions remain unaffected, at least for now,” he said.

As well as the apparent falloff in exports, there is also a traffic jam of more than a dozen oil tankers in the Turkish Straits, caused by a dispute between the local authorities and maritime insurers due to the sanctions and price cap.

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