Where Will Ukraine Strike Next?

If this sort of speculation seems reminiscent of the summer conjecture about Kherson, that's because it is. 

The Ukrainians are not obscuring their activity: they've launched two devastatingly successful long range artillery attacks on the Melitopol area in the past few days. It may not be where their next offensive starts, but strategically it makes sense - and the Russians know it, too. The question is whether Russia can do anything about it. JL 

Mike Martin reports in Threshed Thought:

Ukraine are going on the attack again. They have a much more highly trained force with higher morale. There’s a big river on the western end of the front line - so very hard to cross. And the north east near Svatove seems to be a pretty solid front line. That leaves us somewhere in this sector of the front line for a Ukrainian assault. Seems plausible - if they can cut through here and get to the sea then they will have cut the Russian forces into two (especially if they fully drop the Kerch Bridge). These two moves would isolate all the Russians in southern Ukraine and Crimea. It would be potentially war winning. It has become abundantly clear that Ukraine is not going to rest on its laurels over the winter. They are going on the attack again. They have a much more highly trained force with higher morale. In bitterly cold temperatures where survival is a thing, this stuff really matters. The Russians will be focussing on making sure their fingers don’t fall off. The Ukrainians on the other hand … The Russians as well are going to be focussing on training and integrating the thousands of troops that they got from their mass mobilisation. Much harder than it sounds, particularly when you have Wagner PMC, which is mostly prisoners by now, and the Chechens. It’s hard to build a cohesive force when the disparate bits are of such low quality, and refuse to work with each other. If you dig into the weapons shipments to Ukraine - what do we see? Artillery shells. Lots and lots of them. And an increasing amount of them. Why? They are gathering stocks for an offensive. And so now we are back to the old game ... where will Ukraine strike next?

 

There’s a big river on the western end of the front line - so very hard to cross. And the north eastern bit (up near Svatove) seems to be a pretty solid front line. Ukraine has been trying up there for some time but the Russians are really holding it hard. The Russians are really holding it hard because just behind the front line are a lots of main logistics routes for the Russians. If that front line is cut then it creates all sorts of problems for Ru troops in the Donbas (in addition, Ru troops defending there are well supplied). Conversely - the Russians are pushing forward in Bahkmut in an attempt to complete their capture of the Donbas (which is their stated aim for the invasion these days). This is a several month slog for the Russians. They have lost thousands of men here, and gained very little to show for it. World War One style trenches and artillery barrages. Horrendous. So that leaves us somewhere in this sector of the front line for a Ukrainian assault. Seems pretty plausible - if they can cut through here and get to the sea then they will have cut the Russian forces into two pieces (especially if they fully drop the Kerch Bridge that connect the eastern end of Crimea and Russia).

 

These two moves would isolate all the Russians in southern Ukraine and Crimea. It would be potentially war winning.

 

Looking in closer detail at that front, we can see that there is a lot more activity south of Zaporizhzhia, than over at the eastern end near Donetsk. As always - let’s look at the logistics lay down for the Russians. That will tell us what the Ukrainians are up to. Over the last few weeks, there have been an increasing number of strikes on Tokmak, and on Melitopol. Last night Ukrainian partisans/special forces, blew up some bridge supports on a bridge in Melitopol. There was a massive HIMARS strike in Melitopol too the other day causing untold Ru casualties. Before that the Ukrainians blew up a railway yard in Tokmak. This is how the Ukrainians work - destroy the logistics, and then run rings around the Russians. I expect that this is what we will see to the south of Zaporizhzhia and around Melitopol. This is probably what we are going to see over the winter. 1 - The taking of Tokmak (and the railway line). 2 - A drive through to the coast (not as easy as it looks as Ukr will be under pressure both sides of the salient).

 

3 - Dropping the Kerch Bridge (this wont necessarily happen last, but at some point during 1+2 for max effect). If the Ukrainians can pull this off, and it is hard, then it will completely change the dynamic of the war. All of Russia’s troops from Melitopol going west, and Crimea will be cut off. Their eventual surrender or withdrawal seems inevitable.

 

(But) the Russians are likely to launch their own winter offensive(s) either/or in Donetsk or from Northern Luhansk as it is clearly Putin minimum objective to take the rest of Donetsk Hence Ukraine has to balance the resources to resist this/these Perhaps it is better for Ukraine to wait with its own offensive until the Russian winter offensive(s) has/have played out. In any case a late Ukrainian winter offensive has a better chance of succeeding as the Russians then have suffered winter conditions longer and have lover morale than they have now