While Soledar Battle Remains Vicious, Ukraine May Be Entering Kreminna
While claims and counterclaims circulate about who controls what is left of Soledar, a suburb of a small city, Ukraine may have quietly advanced into Kreminna, a far more significant target, due to Russian redeployment of troops to Soledar, which became its target when Bakhmut proved unassailable after heavy losses. JL
Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:
This morning Ukraine still
controls a portion of Soledar, but fighting continues, and losses have been significant on both sides. Russia’s massive assault has
gained them ground, though there (are) numerous videos of
Russian soldiers being taken out by artillery, drones, or heavy
machine guns. Because
it’s been so long since Russia had anything that even looked like a
marginal victory (since July) pro-Russian sources are trying to turn Soledar into
“proof” of every claim of the Kremlin - as Ukrainian forces were advancing on Kreminna. Some reports indicate the Ukrainian military has entered Kreminna.The
Russian ministry of defense is now officially claiming to have
“liberated” Soledar after destroying every building in the town and
either driving out or killing everyone who lived there. Meanwhile, the
claims on Telegram channels about Ukrainian losses in the town continue
to grow exponentially. They’ve gone from claiming “100 Ukrainians
surrendered” to “400 Ukrainians committed suicide” to “55,000 Ukrainians
are dead in Soledar.” And no, I’m not kidding about that number.
Meanwhile,
Ukraine is reporting that its forces still hold positions in Soledar.
Also, they’d like to know when those other 54,500 troops are going to
arrive.
As
of Thursday morning, it’s difficult to say who actually controls the
town of Soledar. Russia’s massive assault on that location has certainly
gained them ground, though numerous videos of different groups of
Russian soldiers being taken out by artillery, or drones, or a heavy
machine gun emplacement certainly show that the cost of Russia’s advance
has been extremely high.
As
of this moment, videos just released by Ukrainian sources show
Ukrainian soldiers reportedly in a portion of Soledar talking about how
they were continuing to hold that position. On the other hand, the
moneyman behind Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced yesterday
that Soledar had been completely captured. He was then contradicted by
theRussianministry of defense.
Right
now, any attempt to determine the situation in Soledar means sorting
through an astounding flood of propaganda. Prigozhin may have only
declared the town captured yesterday, but plenty of Russian sources,
military bloggers, bots, and enthusiastic tankies got there ahead of
him, declaring that Soledar had been taken now, or now, or absolutely
now. Of course, with devastating loses by Ukraine. The sheer number of
such reports is overwhelming, and it’s hard to read page after page on
Telegram or Twitter declaring that the town has fallen—statements often
repeated in the news media—without coming to the conclusion that Russia
has somehow made some huge achievement. In fact, there are plenty of
accounts ready to testify that the capture of Soledar isfar more important than Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kharkiv.
Because come on, what’s the liberation of 12,000 square kilometers,
hundreds of localities, and cities like Izyum, Borova, and Lyman next to
moving the line 2 km at Soledar?
But that’s not even the most bizarre claim Russian sources are making this morning.
The
best of the worst of Russian propaganda on Thursday has to be the claim
that citizens of Kharkiv—a city that had been battered by Russian
missiles and artillery daily since the beginning of the invasion—were so
thrilled to get the news about Russia’s capture of Soledar that they
decided to celebrate Russia’s achievementwith a fireworks display. This claim is repeated over and over on both Twitter and Telegram across hundreds of accounts and channels.
As
twisted as that idea may be, it’s not as dark as the claims circulating
on pro-Russian sites that 100, or 300, or 400, or maybe 1,000 Ukrainian
soldiers were “trapped” in Soledar and decided to commit suicide. Yes,
that’s also a thing the tankies are claiming this morning.
Because
it’s been so long since Russia had anything that even looked like a
marginal victory, pro-Russian sources are trying to turn Soledar into
“proof” of every claim out of the Kremlin. Soledar has already been
turned into a banner they can wave to show that everything is going
according to plan. Those feints at Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson? Bah. Only
now is Russia seriously beginning to fight.
There’s
a good reason for this propaganda flood: If Russia captures Soledar, it
would be their first significant advance since July. If.
There’s
no doubt that Ukraine is also attempting to paint the situation
favorably. However, their motivations for exaggerating the ability of
Ukrainian forces to withstand a large assault are certainly mixed. Would
the loss of Soledar and increasing threat to Bakhmut make it more
likely or less likely that modern main battle tanks roll into Ukraine in
the next few weeks? Good question. Ukraine is not denying Russian gains
in the area—Russia’s overrunning of the smaller Bakmutske was likely
the most significant threat in the area for some months, as it displaced
Ukraine from well-established defensive lines—and where Ukrainian
forces can establish a position secure against what even Russians are
calling “zerg assaults” isn’t clear. The answer may be “not in Soledar.”
North of Bakhmut. Open image in another tab for a larger view.
By
looking at the surrounding buildings, it would appear that video that
appeared this morning showing Ukrainian forces still in the town was
shot in the western part of Soledar. Each of the little explosion
markers on today’s map doesn't reflect shelling by Russian forces, but
locations in which the Ukrainian army reported on Thursday morning that a
Russian ground assault had been repelled.
Note
that for Soledar, the UA report says nothing more than “Soledar,” so
the position of that marker was pulled from my own … let’s say hat. In
any case, I think it’s safe to say this morning that Ukraine still
controls a portion of Soledar, that fighting in the town continues, and
that losses have been significant on both sides.
One
thing that Ukraine is emphasizing this morning is that they still hold
control over the highways leading into both Bakhmut and Soledar. This
would seem to indicate that any Russian penetration to the west has not
crossed the rail line running north-south into Bakhmut and Russia is not
currently threatening access along the T0513 highway.
To
the south of Bakhmut, there has also been a flood of claims on Thursday
stating that Wagner has taken the suburb of Optyne. However, as best I
can determine, lines in that area haven’t actually moved. The Ukrainian
military denies that Optyne has been captured by Russian forces.
What’s
happening in Soledar at the moment is also unclear. Russia appears to
be continuing to attempt movement, but Ukrainian videos don’t indicate
Russia is engaging in anything that looks like a combined arms assault.
Instead … zerg.
Russian
forces are still having difficulty capturing the central portion of the
town. However, as with everything else, it’s hard to be sure this video
was actually shot. The snow on the ground is accurate to conditions in
Soledar over the last two days.
Time
to sum up. Has Russia captured all of Soledar? No. Will it be important
if it does? Possibly. That depends on whether Ukraine is able to
establish new positions that safeguard the highways leading to Bakhmut.
Even if Russia is able to reach the T0513 highway, Ukraine will still be
able to supply Bakhmut from the northwest along the M03, but it would
represent a loss of flexibility and could be a threat to other locations
north of Bakhmut.
While
sifting through the morning reports from the Ukrainian Ministry of
Defense listing those areas assaulted by Russia on Thursday morning,
there is one that stands out. In fact, there are two big names making
their first appearance. See if you can catch it:
In
the direction of Lyman, the Russian army shelled Terny in Kharkiv
Oblast, along with Makiivka, Ploshchanka, Nevske, Chervonopopivka,
Kreminna, Kuzmyne and Dibrova in Luhansk Oblast.
Not
to ruin the surprise, but one of the names in there is Kreminna. It
also shows up on the list of areas where Ukraine claims to have repelled
a Russian attack overnight. This follows reports on Wednesday that
Ukrainian forces were advancing on Kreminna from the southwest. While
some of those reports place Ukrainian forces “near” the western
outskirts of the city, others indicate that the Ukrainian military has
already entered areas of Kreminna.
The
official statements from the Ukrainian military don’t really confirm
this either way since they are always carefully worded as “in the
direction of” or “in the area of.” However, the fact that the list
includes Kuzmyne and Dibrova as well as Kreminna is a good indicator
that the Ukrainian forces they’re talking about are not those at
surrounding villages. There are numerous videos that reportedly show
Ukrainian forces reportedly advancing on Kreminna; however, those videos
are fairly strewn with bodies.
Pro-Russian
sources are claiming that this shows Ukrainian forces in the woods
south of Kreminna being overrun by Russian forces. However, Ukrainian
sources are claiming that these men are Russians who have adopted
Ukrainian uniforms. There are other reports that Russians in the area
have adopted blue or yellow armbands to increase confusion—already high
because of the low visibility among the trees. What’s the truth? I do
not know.
In
any case, Ukraine is apparently in or very near Kreminna with multiple
reports of advancement. This is the first day that Kreminna has appeared
in the “shelled” or “repulsed attack” lists—that’s significant.
But
I promised you there were two names in that list that were significant,
and the answer is right back at the very front of the list: Terny in
Kharkiv Oblast. That’s because Terny is at the extreme northeast corner
of Kharkiv Oblast. If Ukraine has forces there, it would represent an
advance of some 15 km from their last known positions north of Kupyansk
As a Partner and Co-Founder of Predictiv and PredictivAsia, Jon specializes in management performance and organizational effectiveness for both domestic and international clients. He is an editor and author whose works include Invisible Advantage: How Intangilbles are Driving Business Performance. Learn more...
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