What is odd about that is that Crimea is likely to be a secondary objective - if that - for this spring's Ukrainian offensive, while the real threat to Russia's hold on Crimea is Ukrainian missiles and artillery. JL
Adam Taylor and colleagues report in the Washington Post:
Though Russia has built defenses elsewhere, the scale in Crimea stands out. “The Russian military understands that Crimea will have to be defended in the near future.” Obstacles have been placed along key roads that connect Crimea to mainland Ukraine. Russia has also built trenches along miles of coastline in western Crimea. (But) Kyiv could pursue a strategy of exhaustion by establishing fire control over access to Crimea. Ukraine is already testing this strategy. Since August, more than 70 suspected attacks by Ukrainian forces or their collaborators have targeted Russian sites in or near Crimea. “Ukraine will never be safe or secure or able to rebuild its economy so long as Russia occupies Crimea."
With Ukrainian leaders vowing to retake all of their territory occupied by Russia, Moscow has readied elaborate defenses, especially in Crimea, the peninsula it annexed illegally in 2014, which is now one of the most fortified in the war zone.
After weeks of digging, the area around the small town of Medvedivka, near a crossing to mainland Ukraine, is webbed with an elaborate trench system stretching several miles. The passages are cut into the earth at angles to give soldiers a broader range of fire. Nearby are other fortifications, including deep ditches designed to trap tanks and heavy vehicles.
Satellite images provided to The Washington Post by Maxar, a commercial space technology company, show that Russia has built dozens of similar defenses.
“The Russian military, apparently, understands that Crimea will have to be defended in the near future,” said Ian Matveev, a Russian military analyst.
The defenses have sprung up fast, ahead of an expected spring offensive by Ukraine. In just a few weeks, Russia built miles of fortifications near Vitino, a town on Crimea’s western coast — even though analysts say an amphibious assault is unlikely.
The BTM-3, a Soviet-era trenching machine, digs as fast as half a mile per hour, even when the ground is frozen. The U.S. Army once marveled at these machines, writing in an internal 1980 report that nothing comparable existed in the United States, Europe or Japan.
Russia also uses raw manpower. Online Russian job listings have sought construction workers to fit trenches in Crimea with wood and concrete, for pay of more than $90 a day — enviable wages.
Satellite imagery shows that some obstacles in Crimea were built in a matter of days.
The future of Crimea is a fraught subject. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pledged to return it to his country’s control, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed never to give it up.
The region’s geography presents major difficulties for both Ukraine and Russia. Crimea is connected to mainland Ukraine by a narrow, swampy passage of land that could stall an offensive. But its proximity to the front could also prove dangerous for Russia’s occupation, isolating its forces and putting them in easy reach of Ukrainian weapons.
Though Russia has built defenses elsewhere, the scale in Crimea stands out. “For Putin, Crimea is just a sacred cow,” Matveev said. “If something happens, troops will be immediately sent to this line of defense.”
Satellite imagery reveals that many of Russia’s defenses were built along bodies of water, adding an extra obstacle against a potential Ukrainian ground offensive.
Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, a government-financed research institute in Kyiv, said the extent of fortifications was the “best indication” of Russia’s fears.
But some Western officials worry that a direct fight over Crimea could lead to a dangerous escalation. Senior Russian officials, including former president Dmitry Medvedev, have implied that Moscow would use nuclear weapons to defend Crimea.
Trenches, tank traps and dragon’s teeth
Crimea has been fought over for centuries because of its strategic location. For Russia, it provides a year-round base for its Black Sea Fleet. Its beaches also make it a popular vacation destination, although the war has intruded.
During the Crimean War in the 1850s, Russia fought an alliance of European powers. Historians describe that conflict, which made widespread use of trench warfare, as a precursor to World War I. It also proved that Crimea, once considered a natural fortress, was vulnerable to modern seaborne attacks.
But Ukraine’s navy is weak. It also lacks the air power to dominate the peninsula from above. A traditional ground assault would have to come via a far more difficult path.
aine. Russia haObstacles have been placed along key roads that connect Crimea to mainland Ukrs also built trenches along 20 miles of coastline in western Crimea, near Vitino. Satellite imagery from on March 31 shows that towed artillery has been added in the same area. Some analysts said the weapons’ deployment far from the active battlefield was perplexing.
The battle for Crimea
It would require considerable time, effort and equipment to breach Crimea’s northern fortifications head-on, according to Steve Danner, a former U.S. Army engineer who served in the Persian Gulf War, the Iraq War and Afghanistan.
“The Russians do a very good job at preparing defensive positions,” Danner wrote in a message, comparing the fortifications around Crimea now to those used by the Soviet Union around Kursk in World War II — a battle that proved decisive in repelling Nazi troops.
Michael Kofman, a military analyst at CNA in Virginia, said that Ukraine is unlikely to seize Crimea in “the classical sense,” but that Kyiv could pursue a strategy of exhaustion by establishing fire control over access to Crimea.
“Over time it could make the situation in Crimea untenable, such that Russia might have to negotiate over its status,” Kofman said.
Ukraine is already testing this strategy. Since August, more than 70 suspected attacks by Ukrainian forces or their collaborators have targeted Russian sites in or near Crimea, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.
Many have been airstrikes, including attacks by drones. Some appear to have been the work of saboteurs. Though Russia intercepted some strikes, others succeeded — at times with devastating results.
In August, at least six explosions rocked Saki air base near Crimea’s western coast. Officials later said that Ukrainian special forces had carried out the attack, which damaged or destroyed at least eight military aircraft.
Strikes have also targeted Dzhankoy, a town in northern Crimea that is an important logistical hub for Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Explosions rocked the city on March 20. They were later linked to a drone attack targeting Russian cruise missiles that were being transported by rail.
Perhaps the most spectacular attack took place on Oct. 8, when the Crimean Bridge over the Kerch Strait was damaged by an explosion. The 12-mile bridge was constructed after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and provides road and rail links to Russia.
The future
Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe and now an adviser with Human Rights First, said that unless Ukraine retakes Crimea, its economy will remain vulnerable. Russia could use Crimea’s ports to block Ukrainian trade, for example, or as a staging ground for future conflict.
“Ukraine will never be safe or secure or able to rebuild its economy so long as Russia occupies Crimea, because it blocks access to the Azov Sea and because the Black Sea Fleet is able to dominate the Black Sea coastline and ports of Ukraine,” Hodges said.
Hodges called on the United States to supply longer-range missiles to help force Russia out, including the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which can hit targets up to 186 miles away, potentially putting all of Crimea in range.
The fortifications in Crimea mean that Russia would be prepared for a long fight. Speaking to Russian state media last month, Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-appointed head of Crimea, said work on Crimea’s “defensive line” was on schedule.
“I stand by the position: If you want peace, prepare for war,” Aksyonov said.
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