A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 24, 2023

Russia Forcibly Evacuating Civilians From Occupied Southern Ukraine

In previous episodes of the war, when the Russians start forcibly evacuating civilians and Russian troops begin uncontrolled looting, it has usually been a signal that they are planning to retreat from that area. JL 

Jeffrey Gettleman and Olha Katiuzhanka report in the New York Times:

Russian troops are forcibly relocating people from occupied areas near Kherson, suggesting Moscow’s forces might be preparing to withdraw from that area ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. At other points in the war, evacuations from Russian occupied areas have precipitated a pullback of Russian forces in the face of Ukrainian advances. A looting spree occurred before the Russians’ withdrawal from Kherson in mid-November. Commanders have now brought in the Russian National Guard to watch troops and make sure they don’t try to desert. “Whenever the Russians start stealing everything, it means they are not going to return.”

Russian troops are forcibly relocating people from occupied areas near the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, Ukrainian officials said on Sunday, suggesting it could indicate that Moscow’s forces might be preparing to withdraw further from that area ahead of an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Russian forces retreated from Kherson in November and decamped to just across the Dnipro River, from where they have continued to launch frequent attacks on the city. In recent weeks, the Ukrainian military has warned that the Russian occupation authorities have been preparing to evacuate civilians from the territory it still controls in the broader Kherson region before any potential counteroffensive.

On Sunday, the Ukrainian head of Kherson’s regional council, Oleksandr Samoylenko, said the evacuations had begun.

“I have information that the evacuation starts today with an excuse of protecting civilians from the consequences of heavy fighting in the area,” Mr. Samoylenko said. He said the troops were “trying to steal as much as they can” as they withdrew. The assertions could not be independently verified, and there was no immediate comment from the Russian authorities. However, at other points in the war, evacuations from Russian occupied areas have precipitated an eventual pullback of Russian forces in the face of Ukrainian advances. And in Moscow’s view, Kherson is one of several Ukrainian regions that are now legally part of Russia.

Seizing back chunks of Russian-occupied territory in southern Ukraine is widely believed to be one potential aim of an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, and Mr. Samoylenko’s remarks came as military analysts reported that small teams of Ukrainian forces had recently seized marshy islands on a stretch of the Dnipro River near the city of Kherson, which is in Ukrainian hands.

Citing Russian military bloggers, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group, said in a report on Saturday that Ukrainian forces had been attacking Russian troops dug into the riverbanks a mile or so outside Kherson. And residents of the city reached by phone on Sunday said that the Ukrainian military had been increasingly active along the river.

 

Ukrainian officials — who have kept details of any counteroffensive closely guarded — were tight-lipped about their troops’ movements on Sunday. Natalia Humeniuk, the spokeswoman for the Ukrainian military southern command, did not confirm or deny the reports that Ukrainian forces were advancing across the Dnipro River. She said the Russian forces were “stealing everything they could get their hands on: domestic appliances, factory equipment, even A.T.M. machines,” adding, “Whenever the Russians start stealing everything, it means they are not going to return.”

A looting spree occurred before the Russians’ sudden withdrawal from the city of Kherson in mid-November. A few weeks before they left, the Russians cleaned out the city’s factories, boatyards, car dealerships and Kherson’s significant collection of fine art and priceless ancient artifacts. Ms. Humeniuk said that Russian forces were preparing new lines of defense along the river and that commanders had brought in the Russian National Guard to watch over other troops and make sure they didn’t try to desert.

Ukraine’s Western allies have been rushing in tanks, field cannons and crates of artillery shells ahead of a counteroffensive, though the supplies have so far fallen short of what has been pledged, according to leaked classified documents.

In the meantime, Russian forces continued to pound Ukrainian cities with missiles, mortars, artillery fire and airstrikes over the weekend, killing at least one person and taking out homes and critical infrastructure, Ukrainian officials said Sunday.

The damage reports came in from various hot spots: Kherson; Kharkiv, in the northeast; and the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut, in Ukraine’s Donbas region, where Russian forces have been slowly but steadily advancing. Seizing Bakhmut and the entire Donbas region has been a priority for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

 

“Fierce battles for the city of Bakhmut continue,” according to a Sunday morning update from the Ukrainian military’s General Staff. But the update emphasized that Bakhmut was hardly the only target and that Russian forces had rained down dozens of airstrikes and many other artillery attacks across the country.

“The threat of further missile and airstrikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high,” the battlefield update said. The Ukrainian reports could not be independently verified.

In just two southern regions, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Russian forces hit more than 30 settlements with mortar and artillery fire over the past 24 hours, according to the update. Ukrainian officials said that in the Zaporizhzhia area, which Russia partly occupies, Russian forces were building fortifications, deploying anti-tank weapons and laying many mines, in case of a counteroffensive.

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