The Reason Ukrainian Forces Can Hold Bakhmut As Long As Deemed Necessary

There appears to be a cycle to reports about Ukraine's prospects at Bakhmut. Some weeks see ominous reports of Russian troops forcing Ukraine to retreat, almost inevitably followed by news that the Ukrainians have stabilized the situation and are counterattacking. 

The reality is that Ukraine has excellent battlefield intelligence. They appear to have seized the positions they need to hold indefinitely while ceding ground where practicable, then counterattacking. Western observers now believe Ukraine can hold as long as they deem the cost worthwhile, the calculation being driven by assessments of the optimal time to begin their broader offensive. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

The Ukrainians are keeping Russians away from the main supply roads to Bakhmut and are conducting counterattacks to push them even further whenever possible. Inside Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces s managed to prevent a similar development in the south by preventing Russians from concentrating their forces by immediately targeting all units that got out of cover. The situation stabilized. The Ukrainians 1st Border Detachment state that they rarely meet Wagner forces and almost all attacks are already conducted by regular Russian forces.

Ukrainians are keeping Russians away from the main supply roads to Bakhmut and are conducting counterattacks to push them even further whenever possible.

In our daily update from the front, we pair up with military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to give you an update about what’s happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

In Bakhmut, Russian forces attempted to complement their recent offensive to the north by developing attacks to the south. However, Ukrainians understood that this was the next logical step and assigned their best sniper, artillery, and drone crews to make sure that Russians do not cross the main street, so when Russians started launching their attacks, they lost one assault unit after another within minutes.

The freshest reports suggest that Ukrainians established permanent surveillance of Russian positions along Korsunskogo street and are eliminating all Russian reconnaissance groups already on the approach. The footage released by the Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade shows how drone operators coordinate with an artillery crew and destroy a Russian assault unit the moment it tries to cross Korsunskogo Street. Such continuous actions successfully prevented Russians from developing offensive actions from a secondary axis. What further complicates the situation for Russians is that this area basically has nothing to hide behind. Since the clashes here have been taking place for months, and all the houses in the region are quite small, everything was gradually leveled with the ground, making attacks from this direction as dangerous as attacking through the fields.

Regarding the central part of the region, Ukrainians still hold positions at the train station. The soldiers defending it said that Russians are increasing the pressure after establishing control over the grain elevators. Recent geolocated footage confirms that Russians indeed crossed the rails and are operating in the vicinity of the grain elevators.

In the northern part of the region, the fighting continues. One of the fighters said that intense artillery fire brought the Russians to senses and forced them to stop pushing further. Today Ukrainians tried to regain the initiative and counterattacked Russians along the whole line. Russians reportedly started retreating, although they did put up an intense fight, and overall resistance was immense. Combat footage released by the Ukrainian side shows that Ukrainians are operating in small assault units to test Russian defense capabilities from all sides. Whenever a group advances, it immediately tries to leverage the gains to help other units breach their strong points.

Today a commander of the Ukrainians 1st Border Detachment, responsible for the southern line, stated that they rarely meet Wagner forces and that almost all attacks are already conducted by regular Russian forces. This statement confirms my analysis based on the footage of battles and prisoners of war. Today, Ukrainians reportedly took captive several more dozens of soldiers and showed weapons taken as trophies. This is less than yesterday, although still much more than usual.

A lot of those captives were taken near the Khromove road. A fighter from the Aidar Battalion reported that yesterday they forced a group of Russians to surrender in the aftermath of an unsuccessful Russian assault. Fighters from the Da Vinci Wolfs Battalion showed a video of how they got encircled, held an all-round defense, and still repelled the massive Russian attack. To not allow Russians to move freely in the region and prepare for their assaults, Ukrainians are also conducting assaults. Today, the Da Vinci Wolves Battalion showed the aftermath of a successful assault on Russian positions. Before this assault, their drone operators, in coordination with artillery crews, increasingly targeted Russians in the trenches. As a result, they managed to undermine a Russian strongpoint and reduce control over the region after a successful assault.

Overall, Ukrainians are keeping Russians away from the main supply roads to Bakhmut and are conducting counterattacks to push them even further whenever possible. Inside Bakhmut, Ukrainians managed to prevent a similar development of offensive actions in the south by establishing tight control over the region and preventing Russians from concentrating their forces by immediately targeting all units that got out of cover. It looks like the situation stabilized, and as stated by a soldier from the 24th Assault Battalion, if Ukrainians break Russian momentum in the north, then Bakhmut will continue to hold.