A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

May 3, 2023

What Success Will Look Like For Ukraine's Counteroffensive

Recapturing territory,  destroying enough of the Russian military in Ukraine to prevent them from posing a present threat to the Ukrainian people, establishing the Ukrainian army as a dominant military force in Europe - and doing all this in a manner that convinces global observers - from the Ukrainian people, to Europe, the US and China - that they have accomplished all this is how success is likely to be defined. 

There are likely to be disputes about what constitutes sufficient recaptured territory or how destruction of the Russian army in Ukraine might be measured, but the basic objectives are clear. JL

Mick Ryan reports in War In the Future:

There are many outcomes which measure success, but four stand out. The first is that Ukraine takes back large amounts of its territory. A second will be if Ukraine captures or destroys large parts of the Russian forces in Ukraine to ensure sufficient Russian combat power is destroyed to prevent them conducting follow-on offensives. A third will be that Ukraine preserves sufficient forces to continue defending some areas and conducting subsequent offensives in others. Finally, the Ukrainian people, foreign leaders and populations must believe they have succeeded. Achieving battlefield successes, after fighting through Russian obstacles, recapturing large parts of its territory and liberating Ukrainian citizens will be a crucial measure of success for the counter-offensives. Since last year, many have speculated about the next Ukrainian offensives. After the successful Kharkiv and Kherson operations, it was natural to look for the next potential Ukrainian campaign to recapture its territory from the invading Russians.

For some time, Ukrainian military planners have been preparing for these offensives. In a December interview with The Economist, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, described how “we have made all the calculations – how many tanks, artillery we need and so on… May the soldiers in the trenches forgive me, it’s more important to focus on the accumulation of resources now for the heavier battles that may begin next year.”

It appears that time is close at hand. Over winter and into the new year, Ukrainian training institutions have been preparing soldiers and leaders. Combat units have been undertaking collective training. Huge quantities of new equipment have been accepted, absorbed into the Ukrainian military and issued to units. New brigades have been formed, and logistics stockpiling has been taking place.

Recent articles have discussed the political importance of the coming Ukrainian offensives. The focus has often been about the consequences of failure. A recent article in The New York Times argued, “Without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine could weaken, and Kyiv could come under increasing pressure to enter serious negotiations to end or freeze the conflict.” But what might such a decisive victory look like?

In all the speculation there has been no clear explanations of the measures of success and failure, or how it might be perceived in Ukraine, Russia or in the West. Therefore, setting measures of success for the coming offensives will be an important method by which Ukraine, and others, might assess the impact of the offensives. There are many outcomes by which we could measure success, but four stand out.

The first is that Ukraine takes back large amounts of its territory. By achieving battlefield successes, after fighting through Russian obstacles, recapturing large parts of its territory and liberating Ukrainian citizens will be a crucial measure of success for the counter-offensives. If large parts of Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are recaptured, this would be an excellent outcome. And it would be a foundation for future operations to recapture Crimea and Donetsk.

A second measure of success will be if Ukraine captures or destroys large parts of the Russian forces in Ukraine. The Russians have to be beaten, and they must be seen to be beaten. A successful Ukrainian offensive will reduce the quantity of Russian forces that the Ukrainians have to fight. Such a success will also ensure sufficient Russian combat power is destroyed to prevent them conducting any follow-on offensives for the remainder of 2023.

A third important measure of success will be that Ukraine preserves sufficient forces to continue defending some areas and conducting subsequent offensives in others. While the Ukrainians will invest a significant part of their air and land combat power in this offensive, they will want to do so in a way that they avoid massive casualties. The degree to which Ukraine can inflict disproportionate destruction on the Russian forces will be an important measure of success.

Finally, not only must Ukraine achieve considerable tactical and operational success in its operations, the Ukrainian people, foreign leaders and populations must believe they have succeeded. Ongoing strategic communication from the Ukrainian government will be a vital part of telling the story about the offensives. The perception of success is essential to Ukrainian morale, and an indispensable element of sustaining physical and moral support from the West. It will also assist Ukraine in rejecting hollow Chinese “peace” overtures that would see an immoral freezing of the conflict to Russia’s (and China’s) immense benefit.

Much has been sacrificed by the Ukrainians to arrive at this point of the war. Ukrainian civilians have endured endless missile and drone attacks, have seen their cities obliterated, and their fellow citizens tortured, raped and wantonly killed by the Russians.


The Ukrainian armed forces have fought on the land, in the air, at sea and in the information domain – and suffered tens of thousands of casualties. Through it all, they have not wavered, nor have they backed away from the agonising choices required to defend some areas, cede ground in others, while also building up their forces for this coming offensive.

The success of this Ukrainian campaign may not just determine the level of support from Western nations. Depending on the degree to which they achieve success, it may well provide a foundation for Ukrainian victory. A massive wave of steel and fire will shortly be unleashed on the Russians to give the Ukrainians the best chance of achieving this.

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