Despite the Defense's Advantage In This War, Ukraine Offensive Is Progressing

The history of this war to date is largely one of defenders holding off attackers - even if outnumbered and outgunned -  from Kyiv to the failed winter offensives around Bakhmut and Vuhledar. The Kharkiv and Kherson offfensives last fall were notable exceptions. 

The strategic overview at this point in Ukraine's counteroffensive is that its troops continue to make progress - without substantial air power - despite the formidable Russian trench system and minefields. If Ukraine can continue that pressure, without even having committed most of its reserves yet, it bodes well for success. JL

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

Though facing intense opposition, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is continuing to chew away at the nearly 20% of the country still occupied by Russia. “Despite aviation, artillery fire, minefields, and anti-tank ditches combined with constant counterattacks by armored vehicles and the massive use of ATGMs and kamikaze drones, Ukrainian troops have advanced 250 meters in the direction of Bakhmut, 200 meters in the direction of Toretsk in the Donetsk region" and in Zaporizhzia Oblast, “Ukraine’s army took back kilometer in the Berdiansk direction, making it a three square kilometer total advance in the region so far.”

As the Ukrainian counteroffensive grinds on, the most intense fighting appears to be taking place in Donetsk Oblast in the so-called Vremenvka Salient, along the Mokri Yaly River near the tiny hamlet of Makarivka. That's close to the border with Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where rain appears to be hampering operations.

Though facing intense opposition, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is continuing to chew away at the remaining nearly 20% of the country still occupied by Russia, Ukraine's Defense Ministry (MoD) said. Ukraine appears to be making progress along the Mokri Yaly River, The Wall Street Journal noted.

But Russia is putting up an intense fight, Ukraine's (MoD) said.

“The enemy is doing everything to keep the captured positions,” Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Tuesday on her Telegram channel. “Russians actively use assault and army aviation and conduct intense artillery fire. During the offensive, our troops encounter continuous minefields, which are combined with anti-tank ditches. All this is combined with constant counterattacks by enemy units on armored vehicles and the massive use of ATGMs and kamikaze drones.”

Despite all that, “Ukrainian troops have advanced 250 meters in the direction of Bakhmut in the area of the Berkhiv Reservoir, and another 200 meters in the direction of Toretsk in the Donetsk region,” Maliar said. In Zaporizhzia Oblast, “Ukraine’s army took back up to one kilometer in the Berdiansk direction, making it a three square kilometer total advance in the region so far.” 

Ukraine’s Operational Command South declared that Makarivka was returned to Ukrainian control.

The area around the tiny hamlet of Makarivka in western Donetsk Oblast is the scene of fierce fighting. (Google Earth image)

But while the Russian Defense Ministry claims its forces are repelling Ukraine’s attacks, and inflicting great losses, even Russian milbloggers are raising alarms.

The Russian MoD says it pushed back Ukraine all across Donetsk Oblast.

“Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian troops continued to attempt to carry out an offensive in South Donetsk direction, as well as near [Bakhmut],” the Russian MoD claimed on its Telegram channel Tuesday.

“In the Vremevka salient, the Kyiv regime launched an offensive by the units hastily formed from the remnants of the Ukrainian brigades which had previously suffered heavy losses. Three attacks by Ukrainian units reinforced with tanks and armored fighting vehicles were repelled in the area of Makarivka over the past 24 hours.”

Though Russian milbloggers vehemently support Moscow, they showed a little more concern than their MoD Tuesday.

“Fighting continues on the Vremenvka Salient,” the Kremlin-connected Rybar Telegram channel reported. “After fierce battles for Makarivka and the village changing hands, the [Russian] Armed Forces nevertheless withdrew to its southern outskirts.”

In other sectors of the front, “the situation is stable, but difficult. The village of Harvest is under the full control of the [Russian] Armed Forces, as is Rovnopol. Ukrainian formations are attacking in small groups, having changed tactics somewhat after the first days of the offensive.”

Russian-installed Zaporizhzhia official and influential milblogger Vladimir Rogov concurred with Occupational Command South and Rybar that Makarivka is in Ukranian hands.

“Intelligence reports that as a result of another attack by Ukrainian formations, Russian units retreated to the southern outskirts of the village of Makarivka. After a few days of fighting, the settlement is again under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Rogov wrote Tuesday on his Telegram channel. “Most likely, the defense of the Russian units is lining up for landing 700 meters south of Makarivka.”

 

While Urozhaynoye and Rivnopol are controlled by Russia, “Levadne seems to be controlled by Ukrainian formations, while Novodarovka is in the gray zone,” Rogov wrote. “After the demining, Ukrainian formations tried to advance on Priyutnoye, but were driven back.”

In the Orikhiv section of the Zaporizhzhia Front, Ukraine’s electronic warfare “was sharply activated,” said Rogov. “The enemy is trying to jam communications and take control of our UAVs.”

Meanwhile, fighting in Zaporizhzhia has largely bogged down to an artillery barrage due to “prolonged rains,” Rogov said.

“As a result [there is] a decrease in activity in the offensive actions of the enemy,” said Rogov.

“The main part of the confrontation at the moment comes down to massive artillery shelling on the positions of the first, second and third lines of our defense.”

But in addition to territory, Russia also lost a senior leader on the battlefield, Rogov said.

Major General Sergei Goryachev, Chief of Staff of the 35th Army, died on the Zaporizhzhia Front, according to Rogov.

“It is reported that the military leader died as a result of a missile strike,” Rogov wrote on his Telegram channel Tuesday.

“A native of the Airborne Forces, Goryachev served as a soldier in the Kirovabad airborne division, after the RVVDKU he commanded a reconnaissance company, and then a parachute battalion in the 76th division, was the chief of staff of the 108th regiment.”

He also commanded troops in Transnistria in Moldova as well as in Tajikistan.

“At the beginning of the [so-called Special Military Operation], he was the commander of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade, and ‘grew up’ to the deputy commander of the 35th Combined Arms Army (with the rank of major general), was appointed Chief of Staff of the Army…. The Army has lost one of the brightest and most effective military leaders, who combined the highest professionalism with personal courage.”