Why Russian Troops Will Be "Less Flexible In Reacting To Challenges" After Bakhmut

Because most Russian units were decimated at Bakhmut or other locales in the Donbas during the failed winter offensive. 

As a result, they are below strength as they await the Ukrainian counteroffensive and are unlikely to be able to respond to attack breakthroughs with the same degree of competence they might have before the invasion, especially as Wagner has withdrawn due to its own casualties while the Chechens only appear when they are assured of an easy win and booty. JL 

 Brendan Cole reports in Newsweek, image Anatoly Stepanov, AFP:

Russian troops will be "less flexible" in responding to challenges on the frontline in Ukraine. Russian airborne forces, known as the VDV, are taking on a more important role in Bakhmut, with parts of its 76th and 106th division and two separate brigades now deployed to the sector. (But) these airborne forces had "degraded" from the "elite" status they had before Moscow invaded Ukraine because (they) have had to be deployed to Bakhmut. Though Russian commanders have tried to maintain some of these units as an uncommitted reserve "the whole Russian force is likely to be less flexible in reacting to operational challenges."

Russian troops will be "less flexible" in responding to challenges on the frontline in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, according to British defense officials.

Russia has continued to redeploy regular troops to replace soldiers from the Wagner Group of mercenaries which have been withdrawing from the Donetsk city, the U.K. Ministry of Defense (MOD) said in its update on Saturday.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin announced in May his troops would withdraw from Bakhmut and be replaced by Russia's regular army after he claimed his forces had captured the city that had been fought over for months. Ukraine has denied the city had been taken and insists that fighting is ongoing on its western fringes, although reports suggest that Russian forces are predominantly in control of the sector.

Russian airborne forces, known as the VDV, are taking on a more important role in Bakhmut, with parts of its 76th and 106th division and two separate brigades now deployed to the sector, the MOD update said.

However, it added that these airborne forces had "degraded" from the "elite" status they had before Moscow invaded Ukraine—though Russian commanders are likely to have tried to maintain some of these units as an uncommitted reserve.

 

Because Russian soldiers have had to be deployed to hold the frontline in Bakhmut, "the whole Russian force is likely to be less flexible in reacting to operational challenges," concluded the U.K. MOD update, which generally tends to emphasize Russian losses and Ukrainian gains.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Friday that Russian forces had made small gains in the Bakhmut area which is being spun by Russian sources as part of an ongoing offensive operation to capture Marinka, an "almost leveled" settlement about 80 miles further south.

The U.S.-based think tank noted how milbloggers said there were disputes over who took more control of Marinka where Russian forces have struggled to advance since the war started—Russia's 150th and 20th Motorized Rifle Divisions or troops from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR).

The ISW also said on Friday that Russia's Ministry of Defense was trying to project competence in its response to reported raids in the Russian region of Belgorod conducted by pro-Ukrainian groups, the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion.

 

The Russian Defense Ministry emphasized its timely response to the raid on Shebekino, in Belgorod, on Thursday which included reinforcing the border area with troops within an hour.

 

It comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kyiv was ready to launch its long-awaited counteroffensive.

"We strongly believe that we will succeed. I don't know how long it will take," he told The Wall Street Journalin an interview published Saturday. "It can go a variety of ways, completely different. But we are going to do it, and we are ready."

On Friday, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the Biden administration believed Ukraine had been given the military assistance from Washington, and other allies, for the expected push by Kyiv to retake captured territory, Ukrinform reported.