The Reason Cluster Munitions Now Give Ukraine A Strategic Advantage

As Ukraine's counteroffensive strategy has evolved from direct armored assault against heavily fortified positions to attritional attacks on both defenses and logistic capabilities, having enough ammunition is crucial to their success. 

The benefit of cluster munitions is that they increase the impact and frequency of bombardment but with fewer rounds fired. This enables Ukraine to keep up the pressure on Russian forces, hastening the point at which assaults can be launched. JL 

RO37 reports in Daily Kos:

A shortage of resources like anti-air missiles, fuel, or artillery shells can force the suspension of an offensive just as much as a shortage of soldiers could. Ukraine’s overall strategy (is) a broad-front offensive, ranging from the Dnipro River Crossing up to Kreminna, 500km away, even as Ukraine has only committed six of 16 armored brigades, keeping their main force in reserve. The goal is to sap Russia’s combat power to grind down Russia’s ammunition, fuel, armored vehicles, and infantry, combined with long-range strikes on rear Russian logistical nodes. Opening 155mm DPICM artillery to Ukraine (provides) as much ammunition as it needs to keep pressure on Russian defenses.

“Culmination” happens due to the weakest link in the attacker’s ability to sustain the offensive.

Many people think of an offensive continuing until one side runs out of soldiers—but that need not be the case.

An offensive requires soldiers, vehicles, fuel, small arms ammunition, anti-air missiles, and artillery shells. Culmination need not mean that an army has run out of soldiers to send to the front. A shortage of any number of resources like anti-air missiles, fuel, or artillery shells can force the suspension or cancellation of an offensive just as much as a shortage of soldiers could do the same.
So can a lack of small arms ammunition or fuel.

When you look at Ukraine’s overall strategy, you see a broad-front offensive. Ukrainian attacks are going on ranging from the Dnipro River Crossing up to Kreminna, 500km away.

This is all happening even as Ukraine has only committed six of 16 armored brigades to combat, keeping their main force in reserve. Some of Ukraine’s most powerful units like the 1st Tank Brigade (Leopard 2s) or 82nd Air Assault Brigade (Challenger 2s) have been kept in reserve, as have a majority of Ukraine’s new NATO-trained and equipped armored brigades.

The goal is evidently to sap Russia’s combat power before the decisive push—to grind down Russia’s available ammunition, fuel, armored vehicles, and infantry reserves. This is combined with numerous long-range strikes on rearward Russian logistical nodes, to reduce the flow of men and material that can be brought forward.

Some look a lot like God smiting the Russians.

July 4, 2023 explosion in Donetsk City near Makiivka,

The key to this type of offense is sustained pressure. Ukraine is trying to grind down Russian resources, to stretch out its defenses till it reaches a breaking point, when it will throw in its main forces into a decisive attack.

If Ukrainian attacks are forced into a pause due to a lack of ammunition, it would give Russia the time to restock its ammunition, fuel, and reserves—potentially undoing weeks or months of Ukrainian attempts to degrade the Russian position.

This is the way the war devolves into a stalemate.

Even if Ukraine has plenty of uncommitted reserves, it doesn’t do Ukraine any good if it’s forced to let up the pressure due to its logistical issues.

Conversely, if Ukraine DOES have plenty of ammunition it can push, push, push continuing to strike Russian positions until the cascading losses of ammunition depots, fuel, and troops empty Russia’s reserve strength and a fatal break in its defenses open up that Russia is unable to plug.

Opening up 155mm DPICM artillery shell stockpiles to Ukraine gives Ukraine as much ammunition as it needs to keep the pressure on Russian defenses. It even lightens Ukraine’s logistical burden, because fewer DPICM shells are needed to clear Russian defenders from an area compared to conventional shells.

Providing Ukraine with hundreds of thousands, potentially millions of DPICM shells to sustain Ukraine’s offensive momentum is the key to breaking the back of the Russian Army. With this offensive logistical piece in place, Ukraine’s offensive need not end after 2-3 months. It can keep grinding, and grinding and grinding until the Russian Army begins to disintegrate.

It’s the “Battle of Normandy” scenario I laid out a couple of weeks ago, where German defenses at Normandy appeared to hold steady for about a month and a half before the defenses failed and Allied forces liberated Paris in a matter of days following the breakout.  In the same way, Russian defenses will be weakened slowly until it reaches a critical point where they will fail.

The DPICM 155mm stockpile is likely the difference between the Russo-Ukrainian War devolving into a long-term stalemate, and a sustained Ukrainian offensive that might break the back of the Russian defense.