A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Aug 23, 2023

Russia's Ukraine Defenses Are Suffering From A Troop Shortage

Russia may be beginning to experience a shortage of troops to man its defenses as Ukrainian assaults combined with long range artillery strikes reduce their numbers. 

The result is that Russian forces can not adequately man their strongpoints, a weakness which Ukraine is exploiting. JL 

Tatarigami reports in Twitter:

Russia's attempt to downplay Robotyne seems like a damage control attempt. They conveniently overlook the scale of allocated resources to keep that village. Minefields, anti-tank trenches, and similar obstacles become significant only when they are adequately manned and remain under fire control. It's apparent that Russian forces are experiencing a continued degradation of troops, necessitating the deployment of supplementary (units) to rectify the deteriorating situation. (But their) resource availability remains uncertain. Amidst russia's attempt to downplay Robotyne as a negligible village in what seems like a damage control attempt, they often emphasize the size of the settlement or its population. They conveniently overlook mentioning the actual scale of allocated resources to keep that village, a crucial aspect surpassing the village's mere physicality on a map.
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I'll refrain from asserting that russian lines are on the brink of collapse and their forces defeated – it's unfortunate that their units successfully executed a tactical retreat, averting encirclement and potential neutralization. The effectiveness of minefields, fortifications, anti-tank trenches, and similar engineering obstacles becomes significant only when they are adequately manned and remain under fire control.
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Unfortunately, their retreat affords them the opportunity to maintain the presence of manned trenches and supervised minefields. However, the exact count and resource availability involved remains uncertain. Considering the available open-source loss data, it's apparent that Russian forces are experiencing a continued degradation of troops, potentially necessitating the deployment of supplementary troops to rectify the deteriorating situation.
https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1692643675250069946
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If russians were to pursue this as their next move, the remaining question pertains to whether Ukraine has the necessary forces to build upon the achieved success – a question to which I currently lack an answer. Nonetheless, this stands as an important development, and russia's attempt to undermine its significance only serves as evidence that things aren't so great as russians want to portray.

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