The Reason Ukraine's Army Is Adding New Mechanized Brigades Now
Claims of stalemate in Ukraine appear to be greatly exaggerated. President Zelensky's directive to enhance defenses have been focused primarily on the northeast of the country - Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Kupiansk and other areas where the Russians have been attempting mostly failed assaults.
The areas noticeably absent from that order are in the southern Zaporizhzhia and cross-Dnipro sectors where the Ukrainians have had some success breaching Russian lines - and where they are preparing to do so again. Among the reasons for the new brigades is that the performance of western armor - tanks and infantry fighting vehicles such as the US Bradley and German Marder - has given them confidence that they have the ability to succeed. JL
R0 37 reports in Daily Kos:
The Ukrainian Army hasformally acknowledgedsomethingrumored for months: they are forming five new Mechanized Infantry brigades representing a 5% expansionof the Army, a significant increase in combat strength for Ukraine. Ukraine is assigning battle-hardened junior and
non-commissioned officers to lead the recruits. The effort to grow the Ukrainian army amidst thousands of casualties has
been a joint effort by many of its allies. 94,000
Ukrainians have been trained by its allies. And Ukraine is
churning out thousands of its own soldiers from domestic training
programs.
The Ukrainian Army hasformally acknowledgedsomethingrumored for months: they are forming five new brigades—the 150th, 151st, 152nd, 153rd, and 154th Mechanized Infantry brigades. Five additional mechanized brigades are rumored to be within months of activation.
Even five brigades represent approximatelya 5% expansionof the Ukrainian Army, thus 5-10 new brigades represent a significant increase in combat strength for Ukraine—provided sufficient trained soldiers, officers, and equipment can be provided.
Building off the successful model used to form the 82ndAir Assault Brigade, Ukraine is drawingexperienced junior officers and non-commissioned officers for the new brigades. Meanwhile, the rank-and-file soldiers forming the bulk of the brigade are primarily conscripts who have undergonea 4-6 month training program.
The effort to replace and grow the Ukrainian army amidst thousands of casualties has been a joint effort by many of its allies. The European Union joint training program is on pace to deliver its 35,000thtrained soldier by the end of 2023. The United Kingdom’s Operation Interflex ison pace to have trained over 37,000 in 2023, and the United States has trained 19,000 soldiersand3,100 officers. In total, 94,000 Ukrainians were trained by its allies. And of course, Ukraine is churning out thousands of its own soldiers from domestic training programs.
151st Brigade soldiers training in Eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine seemingly intends to mitigate some of those challenges by assigning battle-hardened junior and non-commissioned officers to lead the recruits. Any training deficiencies and unrealistic expectations among fresh lieutenants and privates new to the battlefield can be corrected by veteran sergeants, senior lieutenants, and captains.
Keeping these precious soldiers safe, secure, and alive while combat-effective is massively important.
Last week, I discussed how armored vehicles capable of delivering assault infantry to their assembly points were a crucial asset in modern warfare.
Armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles can carry soldiers directly to the front line, protecting them from artillery shrapnel and machine gun fire, without physically and mentally exhausting them before the assault even begins.
Light infantry go into battle either on foot (like many Russian units around Avdiivka), or riding on Armored Personnel Carriers (APC) like the ubiquitous Cold War era American M113 APC.
M113 APC
Armored against only shrapnel, and equipped only with a heavy machine gun, these armored vehicles are often referred to as “battle taxis.” They are primarily for transport, not front-line fighting. The infantry will advance on foot for the final 1.5~2 kilometers to attack their objective.
Ukraine frequently also uses Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles like the MaxxPro armored truck in this role.
MaxxPro MRAP vehicle
Heavy infantry units use Infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). Unlike the lightly armored APCs, IFVs like the American-made M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle feature heavy armor and a powerful 25mm autocannon.
But just as importantly, if not more so, the Bradley’s heavy armor protects its crew and passengers from enemy attacks, including direct hits from enemy auto cannons, landmines, and anti-tank missiles. In one case, Ukrainian soldiers marveledthat they came out unharmed after their Bradley was first struck an anti-tank mine, then struck by an anti-tank missile. They would’ve been dead had they been riding in a Soviet IFV like the BMP1.
Upgraded BMP1s dominated Ukraine’s army at the start of the Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, and it received nearly 300 more primarily from its Eastern European allies early in the war. Since then, Ukraine has received nearly 700 more modern Western IFVslike German Marders, American Strykers and Bradleys, Polish Rosomak Wolverines, as well as the Swedish CV90.
What’s more, the US Army has already designated all but a few hundred Bradleys in storage to be incapable of being used in a frontline combat role because of factors that don’t apply to Ukraine’s army. For example, the Army requires its front-line IFV’s to be quipped with the Israeli Trophy APS system, designed to shoot down incoming anti-tank missiles. Only the newest Bradley M2A4 variants have the power components necessary to operate the Trophy APS. Most of the Bradleys currently in storage are the M2A2 or older models with insufficient power supply.
Ukraine will happily take those non-compliant Bradleys, saving them from fire sales or the scrap heap.
A Ukrainian mechanized infantry brigade generally operates around100 IFVs and 30 tanks. However, additional spare vehicles are necessary to account for combat losses, damaged vehicles, and simple mechanical repairs.Ukraine received around 180 Bradleys,which has proved enough to operate the 47th Mechanized Brigade for an extended period.
Assuming that Ukraine needs around 180 Bradleys per Mechanized Brigade, The US could theoretically equip all five new Ukrainian Mechanized Brigades with just 900 Bradleys. Ten mechanized brigades would require 1,800 Bradleys, just half the Bradleys in US storage.
A new M2A2 Bradley costs around $3.1M. Nine-hundred Bradleys would be just over $2.7B. Even 1,800 Bradleys would cost under $5.6B—only a fraction of the$61B aid package proposed by President Biden, and that’s not accounting for depreciation.
This is what’s at stake with the fight over Ukraine aid. Ukrainian troops can ride into battle “protected” by the soda-can-thin armor of BMP1 IFVs, or they can storm Russian positions better protected in hundreds, if notthousandsof Bradleys that the US Army doesn’t even want.
As a Partner and Co-Founder of Predictiv and PredictivAsia, Jon specializes in management performance and organizational effectiveness for both domestic and international clients. He is an editor and author whose works include Invisible Advantage: How Intangilbles are Driving Business Performance. Learn more...
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