Why Russia's St Petersburg Air Defenses Cant Protect Against Ukraine Attacks

Russia's air defenses in the St Petersburg region were designed to counter air attacks by NATO - which would come from the northwest or west. Ukraine's attacks are coming from the south, making it easier for them to evade detection. 

Russia may now be increasing defenses around St Petersburg as Ukrainian attacks have severely damaged to two oil and gas facilities. But to do so, they are going to have to take additional air defense assets away from the border, giving Ukraine additional attack opportunities. JL 

Ukrinform reports:

Russian air defense cannot effectively protect the airspace over the St Petersburg -Leningrad region, especially attacks coming from the south, as it is configured exclusively to repel hypothetical NATO attacks which would originate from the northwest and west. Russia has historically built up its air defenses in the area to defend against NATO. "Ukrainian strikes in Leningrad Oblast may (now) prompt Russian forces to reposition short-range air defense systems along expected flight routes of Ukrainian drones to defend potential targets of strategic value."

Russian air defense cannot effectively protect the airspace over Leningrad region too well, especially from attacks coming from the south, as it is configured exclusively to repel attacks from NATO.

That’s according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, Ukrinform reports.

On January 21, a Russian insider source said that Russian air defenses cover Leningrad region poorly and are likely not ready to effectively protect the area against Ukrainian strikes from the south.

 

According to ISW, Russian air defense systems deployed across Leningrad region are likely positioned to defend against strikes from the northwest and west, as Russia has historically built up its air defenses in the area to defend against hypothetical NATO attacks.

Read also: Air Defense Forces destroy all eight Shaheds that attacked Ukraine at night

The Russian military is currently reforming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) with the intention of preparing for a potential war against NATO and may be deploying military assets along the border with the NATO member states, the report said.

 

"Ukrainian strikes in Leningrad Oblast may prompt Russian forces to reposition short-range air defense systems along expected flight routes of Ukrainian drones to defend potential targets of strategic value," ISW analysts believe.

Read also: Ukrainian drone attack shuts Russian Novatek plant

They note that Russian forces using short-range air defense systems, such as Pantsir, may not be able to engage all important potential targets over Leningrad region without deploying additional capabilities in the area, adding that continued Ukrainian strikes deep in Russia's rear can increase the pressure on Russian air defense system as a whole.

As Ukrinform reported with reference to law enforcement sources, on January 21, as a result of an overnight attack by Ukrainian drones, the Ust-Luga Oil terminal in Leningrad region suspended operations. The SBU took responsibility for the operation.

Russia’s Novatek LNG producer, based on the coast of the Baltic Sea, also suspended work after the attack.